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PatPfund

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  1. PatPfund
    Love the list! Trades could always flip things around, but as things stand right now, I might flip Martin and Canterino (not really believing in Byron playing CF until he actually gets back out there, so I'd be giving Martin a serious shot at earning an Opening Day gig).
  2. PatPfund
    Next year, if anything, is likely to have a tighter budget than this year (Lopez extension kicks in on top of the max rates for Correa and Buxton, and maybe Dobnak's last year?), so I highly doubt the Twins are looking to make multiple year $10-million-plus commitments to players over 30. Especially position players. So unless markets on these cave to single year (which I really don't see for the bigger names here), I'd guess none other than the RP are likely. And personally, I'd rather they focus on adding that starting pitcher first, because the assets traded or not traded will dictate a lot of what they need (or don't need) elsewhere. Last year they jumped on Gallo first probably figuring later moves (like trading Max) would open a role for him, and instead ended up with a fairly expensive prospect-block that kept Matt Wallner down at AAA a month longer than he should have been. There are plausible in-house answers for most of the roster issues outside of adding a mid-to-upper rotation starter. Fix that, or save your assets/money for a mid-season move.
  3. PatPfund
    I don't mind a move or two like this, but it is irritating that this is all they seem to be coming up with (so far). And if dollars are really short, wasting a million on a garbage arm really doesn't do much for me. Supposedly $6 million is too much to keep Farmer, but he would have far more than 6 times the positive impact of any of these pitchers. A million is also roughly a quarter of what they paid MAT last year, and an extra OF could still be on the shopping list. This looks to be more about staffing the Saints than the Twins, and these are the type of players you could probably add a few days before Spring Training. Be nice if they'd buy the important stuff first instead of finding themselves a million short on an important player, because they spent it on someone they release in late March.
  4. PatPfund
    Well... if it has a Nick Nelson byline on it, I'm gonna read it, and especially here I was wondering what kind of microscope would be used. But, the positive notes are pretty valid, especially if you look at early year performance when the knee was probably at its healthiest. (Conversely, when looking at the full season stats, the early peak was high enough to throw off how dreadful Byron was as the year went on.) Officially, I'm 'doubting neutral' about Bryon's health. First off, I believe nothing released offseason about his health; the Twins, whether for strategy or player PR reasons are absolutely opaque about health reports. You pretty much have to watch what they do, and ignore what they say when it comes to health. (Ex: I didn't get the Solano signing at first last year, but as it became all too clear that Kirilloff and Polanco weren't going to start the season, and that Miranda was actually hurt, it made more sense. But unlike some, I do believe in the injury, and the limitations (maybe it helps that I have a crank knee and played tons of OF in my time). It was clear Buxton was DHing because he couldn't play the field (which is more stressful for two reasons; one as pointed out, playing OF comes ON TOP of hitting; two, because on offense the destinations are set in place with known stops and a groomed track while the infield can mean dashes in any direction on grass with changes in course and speed to chase a moving target). I also noted that a peak performance by Byron, especially those that involved baserunning often preceded an 0-20 run (classic chronic knee result). I also believe in Buxton's raw talent, and his will to play to his maximum. If the surgery helped, there has been plenty of recovery time, and we should see Byron in the field in Spring Training. If we start hearing junk about saving him for real games, I'll shift to full skeptic mode. My best hope is that the surgery helped, and the Twins are MUCH better at managing what is likely a chronic issue than they were last year. Give him rest days, don't bat him in the 3/4 slots as a given (lessening ABs is a good thing for a chronic knee), communicate better with him about pain levels, put him on the IL more (maybe even regularly) so he doesn't limit the roster when hurt. Will they do any of that? Doubt it, but I can hope based on last year's DH-only failures.
  5. PatPfund
    Right now, it should be a clear "no" for the reasons in the OP. BUT, as also pointed out, the roster is highly likely to stay as it is, and every trade of someone in the infield pool (Farmer, Polanco, Miranda, Julien, Lee, etc) makes a reunion more of a fit. 2 or 3 might even make it likely.
  6. PatPfund
    I'm just not interested in dealing from our infield surplus until they acquire a pitcher, and then only if there is still a surplus, which I doubt. Julien, Lee, Farmer, and Polanco are all possible/likely trade chips, and the need for another SP dwarfs CF (where options of this quality abound on the FA market as well as potentially in our own system). Plus if CF leans toward Castro, Farmer's ability to move around is suddenly a lot more critical and he was a full WAR above Slater last year with nearly twice as many bats, so I'm not excited by the price either.
  7. PatPfund
    Actually, I would add all of the speed round guys, because it essentially gives a deeper view of the 'they always settle on Matty Shoe types' mode of thinking. (Though I get the point that you are saying even the cherry-picked list aren't all the same.) I do think, though, that for a LONG time the FO had a fairly empty minor league cupboard, entered seasons with sketchy/incomplete rotations (note the times above you mention they had only 2-3 spots set), and then they went out and got these arms. Even though WE shouldn't have expected much more than backend performance, the FALVINES penciled them in for rotation spots in conditions (that to some extent the Falvines created) that forced many of them into spots frankly beyond their abilities. Post 2019 was the absolute worst; they had historic offensive performances, fell short due to deeply flawed pitching... and then went out and put their major efforts into adding offense with the Donaldson deal. To be fair, pursuit of more quality depth (coaching up younger talent, check; being masters of healing injuries or age not so much) seems to be the new mode of a hopefully wiser FO.
  8. PatPfund
    Two good pitches. When they don't go well he gets hammered. Sounds a lot like Cole Sands to me with more health issues. (And if someone offered me Jax and Wallner for Cole Sands, I would LEAP on it.) He sounds more like a AAA depth piece than someone I want to trade a top prospect or an MLB player for.
  9. PatPfund
    This is more of a philosophy disagreement than that the trade isn't workable, but your scenario counts on everyone staying healthy, and that Raya, Culpepper and Lewis will work out and still be here, because I suspect Burnes will be gone, and a couple of the best prospects will be the following year's trade fodder trading more careers for one year of one guy. If we are trading prospects I want someone with more than one year (which also tends to cause the player to actually invest in the effort; unlike the talented but barely motivated Lance Lynn as a Twin).
  10. PatPfund
    For some, maybe, but not me, because the Twins don't have a giant budget, and trading whole pitching careers for one year of one guy is the fast track back to a few years ago with no MLB pitching staff and an empty pipeline. Not saying everyone has to agree with me, though.
  11. PatPfund
    Dude, you can type as many words as you want, pretending I said things I didn't say (pretty sure the only one using the s--ks word is you, I actually said I loved Jorge; never said people couldn't play more than one spot and in fact have advocated on this site for playing Jorge at 1B if he stays a Twin), but I'd bet my Tom Kelly Wearing Zubaz Smoking A Stogie T-shirt that the Blue Jays are unmoved by the prospect of trading pitching for a 3B who can field SOME BALLS, and can sometimes be accurate throwing SOME BALLS. (Well, OK, maybe not that shirt. I love the thing. Maybe my reputation? That means less to me.)
  12. PatPfund
    If you think Burnes wins you the World Series next year (the only year he'll be here), then it is worth it. If they don't win the World Series, they are worse the year after, because they may have infield depth, but they don't have that depth on the pitching side, and this gives up two parts of their future where they are weakest. I'd be in the latter camp. Not that it really matters, because this team doesn't spill heavy for pitching rentals.
  13. PatPfund
    I'd guess the Twins have very little interest in a two year $26 million contract for a guy who averages a half season (next year's salary crunch is bigger than this year's as has been covered well on these pages). If you want to spend $10 million (or more) for a PT 1B/DH, just keep Jorge Polanco, give him a big glove and some reps and rotate him through 1B/2B/DH. Costs nothing. (Or even cheaper, play minimum salary Jose Miranda as the RH half of the platoon.)
  14. PatPfund
    Well this fan has played ball for almost 60 years including long stretches at all of the positions except pitcher, and giggles at anyone who thinks infield is the same except for where you stand (consider for instance that SS is considered the top of the defensive spectrum while 1B is the bottom). 3B is a space where you can hide reduced foot-speed, but it requires fast reaction time and a strong accurate arm; the last two being areas Jorge was deeply exposed last year. More reps/practice could help fix the reactions, but his arm has never been the highlight of his game and expecting that to change at this point in his career is a fantasy (and I seriously doubt it is one shared in Toronto). I love Polanco, and he was a hero for giving 3B a shot at a time of need last year, but if I never see him play there again (regardless of the uniform he wears) I'll be a happier fan.
  15. PatPfund
    When Dean Kremer was the same age as Louie Varland was last season, he started 13 games and had an ERA of 7.55. Which he then cut in half the next year. I'd rather keep Festa and Miranda, and trust our own 2-time Minor League Pitcher of the Year to improve with experience from a far better starting point. Save the prospect trades for a better pitcher; you can sign rotation depth as a budget FA.
  16. PatPfund
    I'm sorry, but why on earth would the Jays want Polanco? He was absolutely dreadful at 3B last year, the Jays certainly saw the same things I saw, because a couple of his worst plays happened against them in Game 1 of the playoffs (Polanco fields easy grounder, double clutches, then almost gets Kirilloff killed with an awful throw; later Polanco has a slow bouncer, runs right past it, and leaves it to Correa to come halfway across the infield to bail him out with the fantastic throw to get Bichette). Polanco needs to go to a team that needs a 2B or maybe wants to convert him to 1B. And that team is NOT the Jays. And if all you can get for Max is some crummy relievers, then keep him. (IF he isn't part of a package that brings back a good SP, keep him.) The Twins don't need crummy RPs and they DO need corner OFs unless you feel excited by handing Gordon and/or Larnach starting jobs. (I don't.)
  17. PatPfund
    #3 is popular here, because it is kind of a joke. We get a rising (star?) pitcher, and Miami gets a rising catcher, and... two players who might have problems starting for the Twins next year. Larnach might not even make the team, and Polanco plays the same position as Arraez's best (and Jorge looked frankly brutal at third last year). Teams don't make trades unless they think they are getting a good deal that WILL HELP their team. So adding our team's odds and ends and having Miami just toss in another couple starters isn't going to happen either. The one that seems the most painful is probably the closest to reality.
  18. PatPfund
    The Ohtani contract kinda smells, and cries out for baseball to tune their rules. One of those cases where the manipulation goes far beyond the point of the rules with serious implications for the game. Everyone keeps saying the Dodgers can afford it, but actually nobody who says so knows what they are talking about, because the Dodgers pay less than 3% of the money owed for 10 years, and nobody even knows who will own the team in a decade when the other 97+% starts coming due. Or what the state of the game will be (it isn't exactly on an unending up-escalator lately). And the Dodgers won't be the last team to mortgage a future owner's future unless some restrictions are put on (a cap on the percentage of contract that can be deferred? requiring an owner to pay half of each annual deferred payment into an escrow account during the actual term of the contract? something else?), and sans restrictions some owner(s) will likely wreck their finances (and thus their team(s)). Lugo for me isn't a specific "blue", just a sign the market will keep narrowing. And while last year helped restore some confidence for me, this FO has stood pat or waited out the market to ruinous effect in the past (post-2019 when we clearly needed pitching, we got JD and projects, a couple years ago we blew several top prospects for a recently injured starter who blew up physically, and a closer who blew up mentally, plus there was the whole Matty Shoe/Bundy/Archer messes). So until we know what we are getting, each signing will cause a twinge in me.
  19. PatPfund
    I'd say the innings-eaters are still there, but you won't find them with an old baseball definition. Very few pitchers of any kind throw 180 innings any more, but you can certainly find players on the Twins whose main job was to eat innings so better pitchers didn't have to. That essentially was the whole reason for the Keuchel starts, eat 5 innings in a game, and give Ober some down time. You could say the same for the backend of the bullpen; rarely were you counting on Sands/Winder/Balazovic etc to win games; you wanted professionals to eat some innings and either let the offense climb back in, or not waste better talent mopping up big victories. So the role is still there, but like much else, the definition needs revision.
  20. PatPfund
    A year ago I would have screamed YES!!! For a bag of used baseballs!!!!! But Max's second half made me remember why I have a Kepler jersey, and frankly (for reasons documented ably in the OP) I'm not a big believer in the Twin's supposed deep OF. Moving Max leaves a hole in the lineup most ably filled by another starter elsewhere, and none of them come close to the defense. It is the same sort of tail-chasing exercise as trading Vasquez to save payroll while sending money to cover part of his salary (something I'd bet the team won't do, but I've seen suggested on the site).
  21. PatPfund
    Lee looks interesting, but I never pictured him in a Twins uniform; my number 1 (and I suspect the team's) goal is to use depth/resources on acquiring a couple starters (one at least #3 and a depth flyer). Unless the payroll thing is partially strategic, I can at least dream of internal fixes to positional needs (needs also cheaper to fix with in-season trades), but pitching is different. I'm sure even with adds we'll see SWR and Festa starting games for the Twins this year, but I'd rather not see it in April (which is how long it took last year's Opening Five to blow out a couple tires). (So... the Lugo signing doesn't hurt specifically, but it starts to narrow the field of possible moves. Which winds the nerves up a bit.)
  22. PatPfund
    Great article, and pretty much why I have zero interest in the Twins trading-for or signing position players until they figure the whole "trusted starter" thing. For every position question (CF? LF? RF? C? 1B? 2B?) I can give a plausible internal answer (Martin/Buxton/Castro, Wallner/Larnach/Gordon/Castro/Kirilloff, Max/Wallner, Camargo if you trade Vazquez, Kirilloff/Miranda/Julien, Julien/Polanco/Farmer). But there really is no plausible MLB-ready starter, let alone a playoff-trusted one, evident in the Twins' system. They need to add from outside, and shouldn't waste salary or prospects on non-essentials until secure the arm.
  23. PatPfund
    I literally lol'ed at the Cubs yearning for Polo at third; love the guy, but he was brutal over there. I'm also fairly amazed at someone who isn't happy with Julien at 2B, but is fine with our CF situation (an injured guy unable to play there for 18 months come spring, our utility fielder whose value decreases to sub-average bat if you lock him to one spot, another guy I love but who may not even be an MLB bat playing sub-par D, and an untried rookie who is probably my choice of this crop). The clear depth of this team is infield (including Brooks Lee coming on), so I hope the moves are an SP (at least #3 quality), a depthier SP, and a veteran OF (or two if you trade Max). Jorge is great, but there are a ton of replacement options, and if the market is there, this is the time...
  24. PatPfund
    Good first pass at the roster! I suspect it will be a lot different at the end of the FL work, because there are likely to be trades/FAs coming, but I do think this shows the clear strengths (especially infield depth), and weaknesses (rotation depth, OF esp. CF depth) of the team. Not sure we'd score another Lopez, but an SP in the #2-#3 range would force depth, and a veteran OF would could cover CF as MAT did last year, or be a 4th if Buxton (miracle!!!) or Martin start to lock down the middle. (Personally, I'd be shocked if Byron even played 20 games in CF next year; the mid-20s speed is gone forever, and moving to a corner is more likely to keep him healthy.) And while a-year-ago me would be shocked to read this, I'd be pulling Max mostly off the For Sale table unless an offer blows them away. If they trade him, they are just going to have to get another vet to fill in his spot, because I think there are serious questions about whether Gordon and Larnach are MLB starters, and Byron's knees have kept him out of the OF since Aug '22?. Which would leave you with Wallner... and maybe Kirillof, and wrecking some of Castro's value by locking him down to a position.
  25. PatPfund
    The video is hilarious!
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