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PatPfund

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Everything posted by PatPfund

  1. PatPfund
    #3 is popular here, because it is kind of a joke. We get a rising (star?) pitcher, and Miami gets a rising catcher, and... two players who might have problems starting for the Twins next year. Larnach might not even make the team, and Polanco plays the same position as Arraez's best (and Jorge looked frankly brutal at third last year). Teams don't make trades unless they think they are getting a good deal that WILL HELP their team. So adding our team's odds and ends and having Miami just toss in another couple starters isn't going to happen either. The one that seems the most painful is probably the closest to reality.
  2. PatPfund
    The Ohtani contract kinda smells, and cries out for baseball to tune their rules. One of those cases where the manipulation goes far beyond the point of the rules with serious implications for the game. Everyone keeps saying the Dodgers can afford it, but actually nobody who says so knows what they are talking about, because the Dodgers pay less than 3% of the money owed for 10 years, and nobody even knows who will own the team in a decade when the other 97+% starts coming due. Or what the state of the game will be (it isn't exactly on an unending up-escalator lately). And the Dodgers won't be the last team to mortgage a future owner's future unless some restrictions are put on (a cap on the percentage of contract that can be deferred? requiring an owner to pay half of each annual deferred payment into an escrow account during the actual term of the contract? something else?), and sans restrictions some owner(s) will likely wreck their finances (and thus their team(s)). Lugo for me isn't a specific "blue", just a sign the market will keep narrowing. And while last year helped restore some confidence for me, this FO has stood pat or waited out the market to ruinous effect in the past (post-2019 when we clearly needed pitching, we got JD and projects, a couple years ago we blew several top prospects for a recently injured starter who blew up physically, and a closer who blew up mentally, plus there was the whole Matty Shoe/Bundy/Archer messes). So until we know what we are getting, each signing will cause a twinge in me.
  3. PatPfund
    I'd say the innings-eaters are still there, but you won't find them with an old baseball definition. Very few pitchers of any kind throw 180 innings any more, but you can certainly find players on the Twins whose main job was to eat innings so better pitchers didn't have to. That essentially was the whole reason for the Keuchel starts, eat 5 innings in a game, and give Ober some down time. You could say the same for the backend of the bullpen; rarely were you counting on Sands/Winder/Balazovic etc to win games; you wanted professionals to eat some innings and either let the offense climb back in, or not waste better talent mopping up big victories. So the role is still there, but like much else, the definition needs revision.
  4. PatPfund
    A year ago I would have screamed YES!!! For a bag of used baseballs!!!!! But Max's second half made me remember why I have a Kepler jersey, and frankly (for reasons documented ably in the OP) I'm not a big believer in the Twin's supposed deep OF. Moving Max leaves a hole in the lineup most ably filled by another starter elsewhere, and none of them come close to the defense. It is the same sort of tail-chasing exercise as trading Vasquez to save payroll while sending money to cover part of his salary (something I'd bet the team won't do, but I've seen suggested on the site).
  5. PatPfund
    Lee looks interesting, but I never pictured him in a Twins uniform; my number 1 (and I suspect the team's) goal is to use depth/resources on acquiring a couple starters (one at least #3 and a depth flyer). Unless the payroll thing is partially strategic, I can at least dream of internal fixes to positional needs (needs also cheaper to fix with in-season trades), but pitching is different. I'm sure even with adds we'll see SWR and Festa starting games for the Twins this year, but I'd rather not see it in April (which is how long it took last year's Opening Five to blow out a couple tires). (So... the Lugo signing doesn't hurt specifically, but it starts to narrow the field of possible moves. Which winds the nerves up a bit.)
  6. PatPfund
    Great article, and pretty much why I have zero interest in the Twins trading-for or signing position players until they figure the whole "trusted starter" thing. For every position question (CF? LF? RF? C? 1B? 2B?) I can give a plausible internal answer (Martin/Buxton/Castro, Wallner/Larnach/Gordon/Castro/Kirilloff, Max/Wallner, Camargo if you trade Vazquez, Kirilloff/Miranda/Julien, Julien/Polanco/Farmer). But there really is no plausible MLB-ready starter, let alone a playoff-trusted one, evident in the Twins' system. They need to add from outside, and shouldn't waste salary or prospects on non-essentials until secure the arm.
  7. PatPfund
    I literally lol'ed at the Cubs yearning for Polo at third; love the guy, but he was brutal over there. I'm also fairly amazed at someone who isn't happy with Julien at 2B, but is fine with our CF situation (an injured guy unable to play there for 18 months come spring, our utility fielder whose value decreases to sub-average bat if you lock him to one spot, another guy I love but who may not even be an MLB bat playing sub-par D, and an untried rookie who is probably my choice of this crop). The clear depth of this team is infield (including Brooks Lee coming on), so I hope the moves are an SP (at least #3 quality), a depthier SP, and a veteran OF (or two if you trade Max). Jorge is great, but there are a ton of replacement options, and if the market is there, this is the time...
  8. PatPfund
    Good first pass at the roster! I suspect it will be a lot different at the end of the FL work, because there are likely to be trades/FAs coming, but I do think this shows the clear strengths (especially infield depth), and weaknesses (rotation depth, OF esp. CF depth) of the team. Not sure we'd score another Lopez, but an SP in the #2-#3 range would force depth, and a veteran OF would could cover CF as MAT did last year, or be a 4th if Buxton (miracle!!!) or Martin start to lock down the middle. (Personally, I'd be shocked if Byron even played 20 games in CF next year; the mid-20s speed is gone forever, and moving to a corner is more likely to keep him healthy.) And while a-year-ago me would be shocked to read this, I'd be pulling Max mostly off the For Sale table unless an offer blows them away. If they trade him, they are just going to have to get another vet to fill in his spot, because I think there are serious questions about whether Gordon and Larnach are MLB starters, and Byron's knees have kept him out of the OF since Aug '22?. Which would leave you with Wallner... and maybe Kirillof, and wrecking some of Castro's value by locking him down to a position.
  9. PatPfund
    The video is hilarious!
  10. PatPfund
    Right now I see Austin Martin as the current Plan A for CF. (A situation that could change quickly with an added veteran.) I'm aware he isn't proven yet, and like all young players he needs reps, but I'd let him come to ST, just play him in CF (we don't need more backup IFs; we DO need a CF), and give him a chance to make the team. If he looks ready, then go north with him. He might have to go down one or more times, but we might as well start that process ASAP. His defense in CF looked really good last year (better than the IF work). There was similar 'he's not quite ready' buzz about Julien last year, but when he got called up for spot duty, it turned out he was too good to send back. Byron is a fantasy there until he physically proves otherwise. I am unmoved by recent 'he's moving better than a long time' comments. We heard similar junk last August before he took the field and lasted 5 innings. And to be clear, I don't blame Byron, if intense desire to play could cure chronic knees, he'd be out there, but things don't work that way. My best case scenario is that he proves to be healthy enough to play part-time in the field and hit off a stable foundation. If that turns out to be the case, I also wouldn't be shocked if the Twins start working on a migration to LF during the year. (We all remember Byron as the best CF in the game, but he's 30 in less than two weeks, and by spring it will have been a year-and-a-half of bad knees multiple surgeries keeping him off MLB OF grass.) I don't see Gordon as a real CF option except occasional fill-ins. He's really competing with Larnach and others as a LF/IF flex option, and if he doesn't hit fairly quickly his future is in another uniform. Castro could be good enough (if not great), but his value as a strong defender all over is watered down by locking him to a spot. (Though sans veteran addition, I'd be counting on a Castro/Buxton combo to cover for a bit if Martin needs to fix some issues in AAA.)
  11. PatPfund
    Well, it won't be Jax who tended to implode when overused. Varland (assuming they find a starter good enough to push him out of the rotation) would be a good high use option. At least it is nice to see a "how do we replace Emilio" piece instead of a "how fast can we ditch Pagan" screed. Glad we didn't cough up the big coin for him, though.
  12. PatPfund
    I think the OP is correct, and we can expect a bounce-back from Correa; the playoffs were a peek that the star player is still there given some alleviation of the foot problem. I also agree Buxton can't be counted on (he isn't bouncing back from a bad year, he has had a bad knee that ended 2022 early with a surgery that still left him unable to play the field, or even stay healthy as a DH; maybe the latest minor surgery fixed it, maybe not). Maeda is already replaced; Paddack is coming off TJ surgery as Maeda was doing, but unlike Kenta he rehabbed enough to pitch at AAA, and then be a star reliever in the playoffs. He should be far ahead of where Maeda was a year ago. The offense is also likely to be much better as their rookie trio (Lewis, Julien, Wallner) only played fractions of last year, and will hopefully be good for most/all of the season. Miranda and Kirilloff should also be healthy (people are freaking about Kirilloff, but the wrist that looked to end his career was fine, and he won a Player of the Month award before dinging his shoulder). The team still needs a starter to add depth, and they need to sort out the CF spot, but a good foundation is in place.
  13. PatPfund
    I think Castro is the easy choice to start the year as a super utility player (who plays most days). He actually plays the positions well, hits from both sides, and won/made-the-difference in a LOT of games last year. I'm not that worried about last year being an outlier; he has five seasons finished before he turns 27 (that will be in April). He was thrown in early by a notoriously bad team, and finally got to play with quality around him in 2023. I think we saw the real Castro last year. You nailed the Gordon situation really well (including why I love him); as things stand now, Nick would probably have to beat out somebody like Larnach as a 4th-OF/(sometime IF) or he doesn't make the team. (The team may also include him in a trade to give him a shot elsewhere unless they trade another OF.) My guess is Martin is the current Plan A in CF (unless he is bumped to Plan B by a veteran addition). The Twins have certainly done it before, but having a rookie play several positions while trying how to play MLB defense and hit MLB pitching just isn't smart. Let the kid focus on CF and hitting, and use him to replace Taylor's speed on the bases, while adding a tough eye to go with Julien (and possibly replace Polanco's tough ABs if he gets traded).
  14. PatPfund
    I don't see Byron as any sort of key to the offseason. We heard all sorts of bilge in ST and then again during his Saints rehab about his health, and I think he made it through 5 actual innings in the field, then we heard more junk about it being "planned" blah, blah, blah, until it was clear he was hurt again. Citing his career stats doesn't matter any more; the Twins last year were better without Buxton. Good enough to win a division and playoff series. Citing his season stats as just off normal only makes sense if you ignore his splits. He was great in April, then things ran severely downhill to the point that he hit under .200 in June/July combined striking out 57 times in 119 ABs in those two months. He (and Correa) absolutely slaughtered the offense hitting 3 and 4. To me, the key to next year is Correa's health, and that of Lewis, Miranda, and Kirilloff. Regardless of "reports" the Twins will have to plan for CF mostly played by someone else. Byron isn't a key, he is now a wild card with a known floor, and huge benefits if the longshot of true health comes in. But don't count on it.
  15. PatPfund
    Last year, it appears there were 13 pitchers taken, and two position players. Two. Not shocking when you consider how everyone has a short bench now; position players have to play. Most the experts believe this year's Rule will again be pitcher heavy. Keirsey isn't a pitcher. He isn't particularly young any more. He isn't a 40 HR guy. He isn't listed on anyone's Top Rule 5 prospect list that I've seen (Prato is, but at the bottom of MLB.com's). Nobody is going to draft him, and give him a locked-up spot on their 2024 roster, so there won't be anything to regret. But if someone does, and he is good enough to make it, then good for him.
  16. PatPfund
    No. Biggest need is SP, next biggest is OF depth if Byron is still gimpy in a month (assuming he will be but it is the time of miracles?). We have plenty of RH bats if Correa, Lewis, and Miranda are healthy. We can just keep Farmer if we want an RH IF.
  17. PatPfund
    Man, if Buxton can play defense, and hit off healthy knees, this IS a great core with several other pieces (Miranda, Kirilloff, Julien, Jeffers, Vasquez, Wallner, Kepler) who could make it a great team with healthy productive years. But I'll remain skeptical about Byron in the field until I see it on back-to-back days. You can tell he is aching for it, and that will lead to positive buzz, but that buzz has faltered repeatedly in the face of actual playing time the past couple years. Double my skepticism if the Twins hold Buxton out of Spring Training games (especially with lame excuses of the sort that turned out to be deceptive for several players last spring).
  18. PatPfund
    The Keith Law piece was bizarre as the OP said. I pretty much assumed he put it together under time pressure, or in moments of distraction, because there really is no other excuse (other than incompetence which doesn't apply to Law) for putting together a piece on the rotation that mentions Balazovic, but skips any mention of Paddack, and refers to Varland as a "former starter' (when he was a rookie starter converted to RP strictly for the playoffs). Law made it worse by his defenses in the comments; instead just saying something like 'my bad' he tried to make a case for not mentioning Paddack. A really stupid case implying no one could consider Paddack as an MLB starter (he has 65 MLB starts) while mentioning Balazovic (who has ZERO MLB starts and is closer to being DFA'd than starting '24 in the Twins rotation). The OP's point is that Paddack is the Maeda next year is apt. I also like Varland's chances to improve; he was a rookie, so there is room, and he seems to be a driven young man, so I suspect the effort won't be lacking. And yep, it still leaves the Twins needing a couple more SP arms, because injuries are part of the game, and even if Ober is less restricted inning-wise, Paddack will have limits.
  19. PatPfund
    Great information with one key missing part of the '23 recap; Correa was put on IL for a couple weeks leading into his playoff resurgence. That strategy should have been tried a few times during the regular season as well. I too have had plantar fasciitis and while long term rest is the best cure, it is an inflammation that can controlled with shorter chunks of time off. Hopefully Carlos modifies his notoriously intense off-season work to show up in better health next spring. (And hopefully his protegé Jose Miranda does likewise, and maybe is a bit less "sexy", but more baseball healthy?) We've already broken away from the most pathetic playoff record in North American sports, and nabbed a playoff series win in the Correa era. I'm fine with the contract so far.
  20. PatPfund
    I'd float Trivino a Keuchel-like deal; one year minor league deal with player opt-outs if he isn't called up by something like August 15th and/or the playoff roster deadline. It lets the pitcher rehab in an organization that just did the same for Keuchel and Paddack, and lets him essentially try out for a bigger contract. For the Twins it is a useful chance to add a good arm for the stretch run when injuries often pare the roster, and at little cost if it doesn't work. But like Keuchel, this is a background move for depth not a key strategy, and I really doubt the team wants to commit to second year to a rehab arm when next year's salary crunch looms. Guess the others could work (or not); they don't fire me up, but neither did Brock Stewart, and that worked out pretty well.
  21. PatPfund
    There is a good reason contending teams don't take Rule V players; they can't afford to lose games just to hang on to someone who might be good in a couple years. And while you might (might) be able to hide a reliever without it costing you too much, there is absolutely no way to hide a position player with today's short bench. And yes, there is a cost to picking players like these, then cutting them in camp if (when) they don't work out. You are required to put them on your 40-man, and keep them there, which means you need to cut someone to make space (like Jair Camargo who has a cannon and back-to-back 20 HR seasons if you pick up some no-hit catcher? or Jose Miranda whose MiLB stats dwarf any of the position players named here, and has already been a potent MLB bat when healthy?), or you pass up on someone like Solano or MAT because your roster is already full of another organization's busted dreams? No thanks.
  22. PatPfund
    I started as a "No! Too many...", but you make a good case. I suspect Julien will be the number one ask if the Twins go looking for a frontline starter, and if that happened, and Farmer and Polanco also get shipped, Anderson would be an intriguing stopgap for Lee, etc., but I'm guessing someone with a more immediate fit will jump on Anderson before the Twins would make all of those moves.
  23. PatPfund
    I'm not really fired up to send prospects and/or pitching for a CF. Especially when there is likely to be a veteran of near or better quality available fairly cheap on the FA market (like MAT), and a couple potential prospects on the Saints (Martin in particular).
  24. PatPfund
    I trust them fairly well, though I fully trust that they will do what they want regardless of my trust!
  25. PatPfund
    Great summary of the off-season so far, though I am not bummed out at all by the payroll situation. A) the cut in payroll may not even be true (the Twins are a pretty taut ship to be "leaking" such a strategic information; I suspect layers of strategy in play). Also, now is not 2024 (when streaming/TV revenue is likely to be resolved into something more concrete to plan around.) B) Even if payroll cuts happen, all it really means is we might be spared $10 million contracts on reclamation position player projects like Joey Gallo, and that we will likely lean heavily on internal solutions for many key spots (like C with Camargo, 2nd and 3rd with full seasons of Julien and Lewis, 1B with Kirilloff and Miranda, and maybe CF with Martin). That should leave plenty of money to pursue a free agent arm (not from the top tier), and one through trade; probably one we haven't even thought of yet. It also leaves room to add complementary professionals late to supplement the roster or help replace any players traded away (players like MAT or Solano still available in Jan/Feb). Who knows, maybe they even figure out a way to get something from Byron! (Two weeks active, followed by two weeks on IL? All season long?) The most exciting part of 2023 came when the Twins started leaning into their youth movement, and that part of the team is still (so far) intact for 2024, and along with it my excitement (so far) for next season.
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