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PatPfund

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  1. PatPfund
    I get the need to add position players, but the Twins' so-called pitching depth is a myth when it comes to the rotation. Right now they'd start with Lopez, Ober, Ryan, SWR, and Paddack. Of those last three Ryan is likely on an IP restriction even if fully recovered (something that also likely depresses his trade value), SWR had a truly breakout season but tailed off badly, and Paddack hasn't had a good and healthy season in 5 years. Right now, only David Festa looks MLB-ready as a sixth starter. Varland is a reliever until he gets another good pitch, Zebby might get there but was not ready last year (his call-up was a product of desperation), and the others haven't sniffed MLB yet. Starting thin failed last year, and likely will again this year. (Plus it is SO MUCH CHEAPER to add position players in-season than starting pitching.) So trade from our depth for a solid arm. And give our in-house hitters (many of whom are already better than 2024's Kepler/Farmer/Margot) a chance to shine, making (cheaper) additions there as needed once the year begins. And buy Larnach a 1B glove; he can be the LH half of a duo with Miranda if Julien can't rediscover his stroke, and E-Rod presses for a space on the big club.
  2. PatPfund
    Prielipp is a power lefty, which the Twins desperately need.. Here are his totals for the 2020s. 2020: 4 games, 21 innings (Alabama). 2021: 7 innings ('bama, UCL tear). 2022: didn't pitch, drafted by Twins. 2023: 6.2 innings (FCL Twins, Cedar Rapids). 2024: 23.1 innings (Twins: FCL, A-, A+). In the minors he has struck out 48 in 30 innings, all as a starter. Also had two UCL operations in 3 years, all as a starter. We could keep him on a steady progression as a starter, and at this rate, maybe he'd be deemed worthy of a shot in 2030 after 3 more UCL surgeries. Or you see if he can stay healthy in shorter stints as a reliever, and invite him to ST to see if his stuff plays against big leaguers, and if it does you roster him; if not assign him to AAA (or wherever else seems appropriate). People who strike out 1.5 batters per IP, and who don't need the stamina of a starter can often be fast-tracked to MLB. For example, Duran pitched 16 whole lousy innings at AAA, before the Twins converted him to a reliever, and he immediately became a dominant force. In a budget strapped year, the Twins should try catching that lightning again, or at least see if reduced work can shepherd Prielipp through his first fully healthy season since high school.
  3. PatPfund
    Despite the doom and gloom, the Twins are (rightfully) considered a primary contender for their division title. Trading away one of your top 3 SPs is something a bad team does, not one with aspirations for the playoffs. And naming a bunch of prospect names means nothing for '25. Zebby had a great year last year until he hit the majors (where he was often lit up, confirming some scouting that his fastball is very MLB-hittable). Connor Prielipp can't throw 50 innings as a starter without blowing out his elbow (meaning he is likely headed for the 'pen not the rotation). Marco Raya never throws more than 5 innings. The others haven't even sniffed the bigs. So, no. You don't trade either of them. (Unless the season blows up so bad the team is out of it by June.)
  4. PatPfund
    Worth thinking along these lines, but I'm not sure why we'd target someone else's OF prospects when two of the highest of our prospects are OFs. Or a 3B if we are ready 'to move on from Royce Lewis'. (I say move on from anyone in the Twins' org that wants to move on from Lewis.) As for the 'pen, I'd skip the suggested trade, tell Prielipp he's a reliever this year, and give him a shot to make the team (we have our own dynamic arm that might blow itself up). And if you don't trade him, add the Sheriff to the bullpen as well (where he rocked a couple years ago). Prielipp, Paddack, Jax, and Duran with Stewart, Sands, Tonkin, and Varland sounds pretty good to me. Yeah, we need a starter too, as long as we don't overpay. There will be affordable and serviceable arms in FA if the Twins are patient, and while an ace is unlikely outside of a trade, a very big need will be someone who can deliver 150-160 competitive innings (since Ryan and others may be on innings limitations).
  5. PatPfund
    The Twins shouldn't even be looking at a player like this (or Santana) until after New Year's. Canha was a good player. But counting on a player in his later 30s with a possible lingering hip issue. for a position that involves running is pretty sketchy. And for sure he either needs to get over aspirations of a $10 million contract, and that won't happen until ST starts to loom on the calendar (or someone else pays him the bigger coin).
  6. PatPfund
    Still off-point, but also deeply incorrect. A year ago the Twins finished with one of the best rotations in MLB, and won a playoff series. They were returning Lopez, Ober, Ryan, and getting Paddack back after he looked fabulous in the playoffs in a bullpen role. They were going to lose one major piece in Gray, and the news about the budget made adding a new top pitcher look highly unlikely. But I don't know of many who had doubts about the top three.
  7. PatPfund
    Glad at least one other "boomer" pointed out that games weren't traditionally 3 hours long (4 freakin' hours when you got to playoffs). I was all for shortening the games through a clock and rule enforcement. Don't care for the anti-shift rule, because it makes the game stupider (seriously, if you insist on pulling the ball into 6 defenders you deserve to be out). The Golden At Bat strikes me as a stupid gimmick to insert artificial drama. I don't really worry about any of the objections in the OP since we are talking probably once-a-game. Most MLB players get pinch-hit for in a game at some point; many have others chosen to hit over them; egos don't shatter. Pitchers get good players out, and sometimes get beat by them. If one at-bat per game crumbles their well-being they are probably in the wrong profession. But it will have little impact on most games, so it adds little extra incentive to watch if you aren't already. Plus I can already see Rocco sending some light-hitting lefty up to hit for Correa in the playoffs, because a righty is on the mound.
  8. PatPfund
    Hate to try to get you back on topic, but the discussion here is about the projected 2025 rotation, and Joe Ryan DID get hurt and he hasn't pitched in a game since. Even if he has made a full recovery (and there is no way to know that until he pitches; the Twins are notoriously untrustworthy when it comes to injury updates), it almost certainly comes with innings restrictions, which seriously affects the depth of the '25 rotation. And if needs to adapt his throwing to prevent re-injury (the muscle didn't tear for no reason), Ryan might not be as effective, again affecting depth of rotation. This is not an area of strength.
  9. PatPfund
    Right now the Twins top three is Lopez (great), Ober (good), ....umm, umm, SWR? Festa? Paddack? Until Ryan is back actually pitching, and shows the injury hasn't set him back, and shows that he can pitch like last year, but not injure his shoulder again, and until we know what inning restrictions he might be under, he isn't a number 3. The deep questions that go with all of the other possible #3s show rotation is not currently a team strength. Even if I spot you Ryan, how about the Dodgers having Glasnow, Yamamoto, and Ohtani. Or sub in Dustin May, or sub in Tony Gonsolin. The point is that there were 20 pitching staffs with a better group ERA than the Twins. Rotation depth was a problem going into last season, they did nothing, and the rotation finished the year running on fumes. This is not an area of strength (especially to trade FROM).
  10. PatPfund
    Amen @Fire Dan Gladden! Rather than a strength, the rotation is the biggest hole in the organization. 2 good starters, one whose increased velocity was followed by a torn shoulder (and he is poised more for innings restrictions than a big step forward), and... well... the post above says it. Compare the current rotation (where Ober is clearly SP2) to the spring of '23 when Ober had to start in St Paul. We have potential answers all over the place for position players (Lewis bounce-back, Julien bounce-back, Miranda bounce-back, Lee healthy, Correa healthy, Buxton healthy, more established Larnach and Wallner, Martin getting full play instead of Margot scraps, E-Rod, Helman, Keirsey, and maybe Keaschall, or Camargo). But on the SP front, as it currently stands, we could 2-3 deep into St Paul's rotation by mid-May, and down to Randy Dobnak before you know it. This team needs another SP3-4 who is healthy and will post 160 competitive innings far more than we need another has-been OF or 1B who simply acts as a blockade to better/younger talent. (Lorenzen was that guy last year, and he got paid under $5 million.)
  11. PatPfund
    Maybe you protect Henriquez, but if Tonkin doesn't pitch well, I can see the Twins going the waiver route with him, and being ambivalent about the outcome; if someone claims him, Tonkin's guaranteed money comes off the books, if not you assign him to St Paul (a slightly cheaper version of the game they play with Dobnak when they need him). I do disagree about the biggest need on the Twins, though. Their rotation has two solid pieces (Lopez, Ober), Ryan returning from a shoulder injury (which even if healthy likely means innings restriction), Paddack who last had a healthy season of over 110 innings in 2019, SWR who save the season but wore down big time, and a couple rookies getting their first longer run in MLB (Festa looked up to it, Zebby looked like he needs more AAA). The single biggest need on the team is for a solid and healthy #3-#4 SP who can give the team a chance while tossing 160 innings. Several were available at bargain rates before the season last year, and we need to push the depth line down a notch or two the way we started 2023 with Ober in St Paul. All other positions have in-house possible (and cheap) solutions, and can also be remedied relatively cheaply in-season, but trying to find an SP near the deadline is both expensive and often futile. (And yeah, I know the future is brighter, but counting on multiple SWR-like seasons from Zebby on down in April/May of '25 is asking for huge trouble. The 'pen isn't the only place likely to be visited by injury.)
  12. PatPfund
    For a while I was in the "tender, then trade Castro" group. (Love what he brings, though Rocco seriously overuses him and others in a position shuffle that hurts our defense.) But unless they feel they can dump Vasquez's contract, non-tendering Willi seems one of the easiest ways to save money. I also think the post-Diamond Sports fallout is still going to have several teams in a tight budget situation, and like last year, several good players are not going to find the free agent market they expected. If that happens, any off-season trade market for Castro at $6 million is likely to collapse. So now I'd non-tender Willi, keep open lines, and look to bring him back at a much lower number (or wish him well). I'd take the same approach with Tonkin, and tender the rest.
  13. PatPfund
    Adams was definitely a surprise for me, but the OP was right about people being protected; it is about their fairly immediate use to the team, and their chances of getting taken. (Some on other threads are posting as if the Twins released players who weren't protected; José Miranda wasn't protected the season before he lit up AA and AAA and paved his way to the majors. As a Twins prospect, because he wasn't picked.) Definitely curious to see the plan for Adams come ST.
  14. PatPfund
    Not worried at all, and curious if the Twins might be active on the claiming side this year. Moran might get grabbed, but while I remember some dominant outings, he could follow 3 Ks with 4 BB in a heartbeat (and as I remember it, his minor league control numbers were worse than his MLB outings).
  15. PatPfund
    I like Tonkin, and wouldn't mind seeing him back at all. I just don't want to see the Twins walk down last year's trail locking up fringey bullpen arms early (when exactly nobody else is clamoring to sign them). Keep lines open with Tonkin, but focus on need, which for me is a healthy, innings-eating SP3/4. I still think if we'd signed Lorenzen last spring, we win the division, but we couldn't afford his paltry $4.5 million salary, because we wasted it on clowns like Jackson, Staumont, and Margot. Our current rotation is Lopez, Ober, Ryan (a guy coming off a major shoulder injury), Paddack (a guy coming off 5 years of major elbow injuries), SWR (who was great but wore down big time), Festa (a kid with a handful of MLB starts), Zebby (a kid who looked in-over-his-head), and Varland (who has guts, but has yet to show he is an MLB SP). I'd love another MLB-level arm to push the line down, the same way Ober was forced to start in St Paul in '23 (aka the year we won the division and a playoff series).
  16. PatPfund
    Like many, I think Raya is a lock. Guess I'd put Rosario next at 50% (he could be seen as MLB-ready-ish, has a league MVP on his résumé and could play for the Twins this season; AA isn't that far off). I like Olivar, but given the rarity of position players chosen, you literally have to think he'd be one of the top three available in all of MLB to be chosen. And even if chosen, we get him back if he doesn't stick all year with his new team. On the flip-side, if we protect him, then need the 40-man spot before Olivar is MLB-ready (so 2 years?), we have to put him on waivers, and expose him to being picked at a time other teams might have more flexibility (and no need to keep him on their active roster all year). I personally wouldn't put him on the 40-man, and wouldn't even consider any of the others listed.
  17. PatPfund
    I'd guess Castro is one of the most likely trade candidates since I don't see the top 3 going anywhere (Correa/Buxton can nix a trade; Lopez is an in-prime ace), and Paddack/Vasquez would be tough to move. I'm sure the feelers are out now; if there isn't much market I'd expect the Twins to non-tender Castro, and see how things go (he could always be re-signed as a free agent if a big deal doesn't develop).
  18. PatPfund
    There are two reasons to add a prospect to the 40-man; 1. they are ready to play in the majors, 2. you need to protect them from somebody else both claiming them in Rule 5 AND keeping them all year. I like Olivar, but he is no lock to play in the majors anytime soon, and in an era when very few position players get claimed in Rule 5 (like 2-3 a year across all baseball) there is no reason to put him on the 40-man. (And if you do put him on to protect him from Rule 5, and then need the spot later, he goes on waivers where he can be claimed with no rules about having to keep him all year.)
  19. PatPfund
    NO. NO. NO. We send one of our top three starting pitchers to Milwaukee for a no-hit defensive backup CF? A player Milwaukee signed as a minor league free agent? I get the site needs content, but any GM who did this should be fired immediately. (We need another SP far more than we need somebody else's Keirsey. We already have one.)
  20. PatPfund
    The logic behind a possible trade seems solid, and I could see Correa agreeing to waive his no-trade if it appears like the Twins have stalled or are ebbing away from legitimate contention. Falvey seems to have the correct position; listen to see if the team can benefit. My gut reaction is I don't want the trade. Correa is not only great in his play, he brings a championship attitude and clutch performance to a clubhouse that is often far too easy-going for my taste (looking at you Rocco). His stamp was all over the series win against Toronto last year, and his late-season remark about some players being too comfortable with not playing well was needed (though it would have been nice if the manager had said it first). The team probably gets weaker both on and off the field without Carlos. (And for me, the leash gets really short for the manager.) That said, if major and cheaper talent is coming back, Falvey has to consider it (like Arraez going for Lopez). If the return is just cheaper or 3-4 years out, then the Twins deserve every bit of the scorn that will follow.
  21. PatPfund
    I get it... But if this team is going to compete next year (and in the future) on a limited budget, they can't trade prospects for a utility player (especially one they can only afford for a year at most). They need to sign (arbitration or otherwise) and trade Castro. Then they need to count on their own young (and cheap) alternatives for position players, because that is where their organizational strength is. That means Julien, Miranda, Lee, Martin (who is a RH hitting OF), Wallner, Larnach, and so-to-be helpers from St Paul (Camargo if they can unload Vasquez, Keirsey, E Rodriguez, Keaschall, and maybe even Jenkins later on). Rather than waste money on more nearly done position vets, they need to pool some money for at least one solid (not washed up) starting pitcher who will give them a lot of steady innings. Someone like Lorenzen (who signed last year for peanuts). Maybe two of those, because starting pitching (not hitting) is where we are short with limited help on the way. Then you can convert Varland and Paddack to the bullpen for instant high-leverage arms (if you can't trade Paddack).
  22. PatPfund
    I can't see any reason you'd trade any of these except maybe Lopez (who is the only one not carrying a no-trade clause, prohibitive salary, and/or deep injury discount). Nor do I think you trade Lopez as that essentially starts a rebuild, and you can't really do that with Correa and Buxton locked to the roster. Outside of prospects (which the Twins mostly need if lower payroll is the future; vets cost coin), the main assets I see for trading in the off-season are Castro, and one of Larnach/Wallner (Larnach saves money, Wallner doesn't. Otherwise the Twins need to hang on to those who got hurt/sucked, and at the very least let them re-establish value before possibly dealing them in-season. Not interested in dealing Jax or Duran unless they get more pitching back (we have more potential in-house solutions for hitting than pitching). Be thrilled if they could dump Vasquez for a high A lottery pick, but not if they have to pay part of his salary.
  23. PatPfund
    Got a good chuckle from @tarheeltwinsfan's comment. Though as a refresher the minor leaguer you can't remember is Rayne Doncon, who is similar in age and development as Miller, but is definitely a better hitter (starred at Ft Myers '24, solid at Cedar Rapids). A really big part of our defensive issues can be laid at the manager's feet. Rocco has his strengths, but a major weakness is his passivity when it comes to pushing fundamentals especially with his veterans. You can't grant talent through boring but important drills, but you can establish a floor and teamwork that gets the most out of the present skills. Rocco also loves tinkering by moving people around all over (even pissing off Lewis late in '24 by moving him to 2B), and it messes with the development of a peak defense. Not everyone is Castro; Austen Martin is an example of someone who would benefit from just playing outfield (and playing more often). This team could use an infusion in talent, but even more it could use a sound foundation of fundamental play, and some extra focus on specific position skills.
  24. PatPfund
    Non tender him. Loved who he was, but there is zero evidence the radical surgery fixed his wrists, and circumstantial evidence it did not (flashes talent in a hot start, numbers tail off and become pretty dreadful; just the pattern you'd expect with a joint injury). His ups and downs look a lot like Buxton's before he finally got his knee fixed, but the problem with Alex is the bone-shortening thing was supposed to be a last resort, so there isn't a 'next up surgery'. And in these times, the $1.8 million DOES matter. You could make a strong argument that the Twins lost the post-season last year by spending on smaller contracts like Staumont, Jackson, and Margot, then not having enough cash to sign a late value like Michael Lorenzen (who pitched well for Texas, was flipped for assets, then pitched down the stretch for playoff bound KC). In a tight budget, so-called bargains for useless players are in effect a self-imposed further budget cut. Let Alex go, and offer him a minor league deal if you think he has something left. I believe his outside value is pretty close to zero, especially if you lock him to a salary he is unlikely to earn.
  25. PatPfund
    No, to trading Ryan or Ober. Sure, SWR and Festa may be MLB ready, but unless you think Paddack will suddenly be healthy, or Ryan (if he stays) won't be on an innings limit coming off of a serious shoulder injury, you are already counting on Simeon and David as rotation mainstays even if Ober and Ryan stay. Zebby still looks a pitch and some AAA seasoning short, Varland is probably an RP unless he finds something new, and the others are prospects still. If the Twins blow chunk next year, you can probably get more for Ryan and Ober at the deadline than in the offseason, and they are not (currently) part of the salary problem. Buxton and Correa are not tradable, and we need them. It's not exciting, but the Twins should probably stay off the free agent market unless there are late values for adding a starting pitcher. They need to get their young bats healthy and hitting (Julien, Lewis, Lee, Miranda, Martin) not more roster blocking FA veterans. This team had a fair number of issues this season, but maybe the biggest was the implosion of the rotation. Trading SPs is a teardown move, not one to make the team competitive.
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