PatPfund

I'd love to see Connor Prielipp do the Duran thing and see how his stuff plays up as an RP (sell it to him as a chance to make MLB next year instead of '27 if his arm holds up). It's probably our best chance to a dominant late-inning option, and could be worth some ROY notice if it worked.

The OP is a s a great summary, but it and some of the follow up talk misses almost all of the context. Rule 5 strictures are VERY hard to meet; the player has to be on the 26-man active roster all season, or offered directly back to the team. Given modern roster usage (shorter starts and lots of RPs) the position player bench is so short that VERY FEW position players are even drafted, even by bad teams. How few? In the past three Rule 5 (MLB portion) drafts combined there have been a grand total of 40 picks (15 in '22, 10 in '23, 15 in '24). Only 8 of those are position players; 32 pitchers. And drafted players aren't "lost", they simply have MLB tryouts with another team, and many get returned (remember Phillies' Minor League Pitcher of the Year 2024 Eiberson Castellano?; drafted in Rule 5 by the Twins, and back to the Phillies by the start of the season). Also consider the Twins aren't swimming in depth at the MLB level, and there are lots of better teams with as deep or deeper farm systems, meaning dozens of other systems to shop (and again, probably 10-15 picks total). And finally adding them to the 40-man means waiving them later if the Twins need their spot, and you are far more likely to lose them permanently that way (like Lawyerson). Given that context, I'd consider the first 4 here as locks, because I could see them on the MLB club next year. I could see Mendez and Culpepper as strong possibilities, because they might help next year. The rest I wouldn't worry about. Maybe somebody grabs one or two (though probably not), but we likely get them back anyway; maybe better than before with the new perspective. (A clue on Mendez is that he wouldn't be an answer for next season at a position the Twins are dying for help; if he can't stick here, other teams might be thinking the same thing.)

Sad, but not surprised about Miranda. I am distinctly NOT a Rocco guy, but I didn't see mis-management in Miranda's case (unlike Martin or Lewis); José just couldn't match health with productivity for long. He'll get a chance somewhere else, and he'll have to play better to keep that chance. Lawyerson seems goofy, because this team needs arms, and because there is plenty of room on the 40-man, and there might have been a better chance of sneaking him through waivers right before Rule 5, but when your entire MLB résumé at 27 is 7 decent (not electric) innings pitched, I'm not losing sleep that next year Lawyerson will be closing for the AL in the All-Star game or that the loss will crush our prospects.

Well... you point out this is something that is only relevant under Falvey, but that means it is also only relevant under Baldelli who has been the manager for all of the staff who have been poached (at least I didn't see any examples from the one year of Falvey/Molitor). In fact, as their immediate supervisor, staff malfunction of good people is at least AS likely or maybe FAR MORE likely to be Rocco's fault than Falvey's. (One prime example is Rocco turning Lewis so dark, he refused to listen to the hitting coach. Even when the coach was giving good advice.) Falvey is probably hoping that's true, because in the chain of can the assistants/can the manager/can the FO, the can is getting dangerously close to home.

Neither. Frankly, I doubt anyone is giving May 2 yrs/$26 million (he's likely going to have to sign a one year 'prove it' deal for under $10 million). And I'm guessing the Twins' FA cap is about $5 million for a position player, not $10 million. More likely France again than Hoskins.

I seriously doubt MN is a top choice for anyone, but as many pointed out, opportunities are limited, and all players and coaches will opt for the least attractive MLB job over one at AAA (and until the Twins try to undercut the Pirates in payroll this isn't the least attractive. For coaches, the window closes fast; if Shelton offers a chance to move up or... just be employed in MLB, and they don't have someone else making a solid offer, it would be pretty brave to say no. On the player side, the Twins never really jump in early anyway; they wait until looming ST pushes prices down. For players in this spot, signing doesn't doom them; if they sign late with the Twins and play well, they can get traded right on to playoff rosters that passed them over in the offseason (like Bader to Philly, and Ty freakin' France rostered in the World Series). Being less than a garden spot isn't great, but it shouldn't be too much of a hindrance for next year.

Emotions are complex. Right there with @mikelink45 on the Groundshog Day feeling (or Charlie Brown and the football), but agree with @Nick Nelson that the Pirates experience would have been tough for anyone. Bigger key is the budget; if it is Pirate level, I'm assuming Ryan and Lopez are gone along with any real hope; if it is $100-110 million, they should be able to keep their rotation anchors, and field a team that could compete for the division, or at least be fun to watch.

Despite an upbeat headline, and an underlying 'he can do it' attitude, this is pretty bleak stuff about one of my favorite Twins. There are some unconvincing pretty pictures that try to show velocity doesn't matter (there is as much confirmation bias in the OP analysis as in supposing velocity doesn't matter, because 2025 could just as well show a pitcher getting hammered and trying different locations as opposed to one losing feel). There is data showing the backup pitches are pretty bad. There is the knowledge that a pitcher who DEPENDS on elite extension has a hip issue (and maybe rest works, but he had a month off and was still bad upon his return). Even the OP concludes the velocity is probably gone forever, and Ober "might require an uncomfortably complete reinvention." I agree, and that is why I'd non-tender one of my favorite Twins; such a re-invention is best done in AAA or someone else's uniform.

If a team is willing to guarantee 1/26th of their active MLB roster to an undrafted free agent signee with a 6.66 ERA in a handful of AAA innings we should just hope and pray they are in our division. Recent history shows 15 or fewer players total will get picked, and even many of those get returned (like Castellano). There are a LOT of better teams than the Twins (Phillies, Dodgers, Braves, etc) with as many (or more) prospects on the cusp of MLB. People are not going to be deep diving our farm system. FYI, Wells had a 2.49 ERA and a WHIP under 1 in 119 IP when he was Rule 5'd; that is the profile that attracts attention, not bad counting stats with only mediocre underlying indications.

Right now this team has no manager, gaping holes on the roster, ownership appears to have money problems (the Twins had the most debt in baseball; though not clear if it was caused by baseball or part of a larger ownership debt), and has collapsed or just been bad 3 of the last 4 years. Given all of this, and the clear tilt of economics towards big markets, it makes no sense to talk about a Series window. Competing for the division title, though, is well within the short term if good decisions are made, and the budget can be $110 million. As the '87 team showed, if you can get a ticket to the dance (especially with a couple of top-flight SPs like Ryan and Lopez), you can surprise. That is the closest to a 'Series window' we are likely to see in my lifetime.

Short answer, no. Slightly longer, because it is highly unlikely anyone Rule 5 drafts someone with a history of control issues. You could even add that if drafted, I doubt Klein makes it out of ST, and definitely doesn't make it through the whole season with an MLB club. An even longer answer involves the ins and outs of Rule 5. The main part is that anyone drafted has to be offered back to their original team if they don't stay with their new club at the MLB level all year (including extension of that year to prevent teams from hiding players on the injured list). In recent years almost all drafted players have been pitchers, because they are the easiest to hide; teams keep minimal benches, but also teams use a LOT of relievers and often require a couple to be recyclable with their AAA club (which a Rule 5 draftee is not). Rule 5 is so difficult, only 40 MLB selections have been made across all of baseball over the past 3 years combined. So unless you think that Klein is one of the top 15 prospects in all of baseball, there is almost surely no reason to protect him. But we can make space, so why not protect as many as possible? Because to protect them, you put them on the 40-man, and if you fill it up with marginal MLB talent that wouldn't have been drafted, and you need that spot to add an actual, cheap, proven MLB RP, you have to waive someone like Klein, And then he can be claimed with far fewer restrictions than Rule 5, and you really do lose him. The best way to protect Klein is to NOT put him on the 40-man. Just consider the Eiberson Castellano experience; Phillies Minor League Pitcher of the Year, Rule 5 to Twins, cut and returned to Philly at the end of ST. (Maybe if somebody drafts Klein, they start a wildness fix we benefit from when he is returned.) I like your main list, but I wouldn't add anyone else you didn't consider a great candidate to break ST with the Twins. Our roster isn't good enough to force stellar depth in the minors.

Again, I hope you are right, but I'd answer the "something" is fewer HRs with somebody on. Lower RISP, lower batting average, lower BABIP. lower OPS, lower OPS+. Speaking of OPS+, it is just plain goofy to compare the "career" OPS+ of a part-time young player like Wallner to an actual star like Oliva who went through a whole career arc (including inevitable decline that depressed numbers). Comparing apples to apples, by the time Oliva finished his age 27 season (with 3 full MLB seasons), he'd played in 212 more games than Wallner, hit 22 more HR than Wallner, won ROY, went to 3 All Star games, and finished in the top 6 for MVP voting all three years. Wallner just finished his age 27 season, one in which he took 40% of all of the ABs of his MLB career, and... ...well, we're all hoping for a rebound to the rates of his previous two almost-half-seasons. I remain skeptical, though I'd be thrilled to be wrong (which has been to known to happen at higher than league average).

I hope @Nick Nelson is correct, but I'm more in the @jmlease1 school. I don't really look at last year as just 'down' or 'unlucky'. It was the first season Wallner played over 76 games, and I think the league has figured out that if you pump in heat, especially high heat, Wallner can't hit it. I'm as pessimistic on Wallner as I am about any of the down hitters, because I think he needs some major alterations to his swing to hit MLB fastballs and cover the upper third of the zone. Maybe he puts in the work to do that, but if he doesn't, he edges towards unplayable.

Good to know the bar is low to get a last shot; maybe he is gone by spring, but there are a lot of players on the 40-man I'd release before Miranda, who at least has flashed at the MLB level. Rule 5 looms, but that is almost always over-thought (very few position players are taken, and few of those stick, the best way to "protect" potential draftees is often to expose them so you don't lose them later when you need a 40-man slot and DFA a player with minimal protections).

It doesn't hurt to listen, but @mnfireman is right about the rotation; Lopez, Ryan, and a bunch of question marks. I feel better about SWR, but the rest need at least two to make big steps forward; not as big a deal if they are your #4-5 SPs, but huge if you need 3 and they are everything after #2. With a good manager hire, and a rotation that can keep the team in games while the bats sort out, this team could be competitive, and fun enough to draw audience (which the Pohlads need more than saving a few million on trading Ryan). If the rotation becomes Pablo And The Gas Cans maintenance will be cleaning up more spiderwebs than beer cups at Target Field by mid-May. (Plus I think we'd get more for Ryan at the deadline if things are grim by then.)

Lewis was the most visible sign of the Baldelli regime going off the tracks. It really isn't a surprise Lewis was better defensively this year; it was the first time he was actually healthy and played one spot since he came to the majors. The stupid/butchered Baldelli 2B move (stupid because we didn't really have anyone clamoring to take over 3B and Lewis had already been injured once playing out of position; butchered because Rocco claimed taking practice there was just to see, then he put Lewis there in a game on short notice) wrecked the relationship, which clearly extended into not even trusting the hitting coach this season. Hopefully the Twins hire someone who mixes active connection and accountability, because almost any scenario I can think of for team success depends on getting Royce back on track.

Love Carlos, and while he might be the best PLAYER who played shortstop for the Twins, the short tenure and the amount of time he missed keeps him off the top of the list. Stats per game played are fine for the individual, but the team struggled with replacements whenever Correa was off the field; his injuries were negative for the team though just null for Carlos. Gagne for example played 137+ games in 8 straight seasons for the Twins; Correa has done that only 3 times in his career; only part of one of those for the Twins. (Though he did come very close a couple other times.) Gagne also helped the team to TWO championships including a few heroics himself. Versailles flashed, but essentially so did Correa, and Zoilo's flash was brighter (MVP and the Series when only two teams made the playoffs). I don't really have a problem with your top 5, but looking at it from what each gave to this specific team, I'd go more toward Smalley, Gagne, Zoilo, Correa, Polanco, with Zoilo on top if you want the best season ever by a Twins shortstop.

I just don't see the Twins signing ANYONE early; any acquisitions are likely to be tiny and/or really late or come via trade. I know it is frustrating, especially as news starts on other teams making moves, and I suspect there will be a lot more spec articles coming, but recent history says no big FA signings until the season looms and prices drop with initial emphasis probably on a few bullpen arms. (Which I'm fine with. Get a manager hired, see what the team has including giving a few Saints good play in ST, and make a deal in-season as needed. If we are terrible to start, why waste the resources, if we are good, newly displaced position players are cheaper than arms .)

Ah, the Homer Hanky. Classic case of something that could have retired on top, but stayed around LONG after it should have retired, washing away brief moments of glory with decades of defeat. The emblem of victory become Failure Flag of surrender. The Harold Stassen of sports paraphernalia.

Unless/until he learns how to hit fastballs in the upper third of the zone, Wallner is a fringe major leaguer at best. And it's not like really big players speed up as they age, so he really needs to figure it out very soon if he wants a career. Which is more likely at 1B than OF (big target, not great in the OF; yeah he'd have to learn as many others have in MLB). Doubt there is much market for him; he likely turns it around next year or walks the Miranda Trail back to St Paul.

On a (shorter) picture-related note, was there ever a better metaphor for our 2025 team than the stupid HR helmet that was ill-fitting/falling apart/WTF-does-this-mean all at the same time?

Hopefully a new manager helps. As in checking in with players, discussing an offseason plan, and even checking in more to see how it's going. Exactly what the hands-off 'you all do your own thing' Baldelli approach that has left so many (Lee, Julien, Lewis) floundering after reaching MLB. Still, you can only be shown the direction; the player has to buy in, and if Lee wants more of a legacy than "I was in the bigs once" he's going to need to dig for it.

I don't think they rush out to sign him, but I could see a reunion depending on who they hire as a manager. It's great to talk about OF depth, but Larnach is unlikely to get tendered, Wallner needs to figure out how to hit a fastball at the letters or his future is dim and any future might be at 1B/DH anyway, Roden (though there is time) hasn't shown he is an MLB hitter, and Outman and Keirsey have pretty definitively shown they aren't (FYI, both are just days either side of Castro's age; all 28). An Opening Day OF of Martin, Buxton, and Castro, could go get the ball without adding a .190 avg to the lineup. On the Utility side, I doubt any manager the Twins hire is going to play Rocco-ball, hop-scotching players all over the field and scorecard all of the time, but Castro is one of those who can actually pull it off with some aplomb (unlike Martin so far, or Royce Lewis who actively started shoving back at Baldelli). If Keaschall's arm is more recovered next year, I could also happily see a Luke/Buxton/Martin OF with Castro at 2B. And moving around more occasionally to give days off. Finally, he might not cost that much ($4-5 million?), and he's a good clubhouse guy. Especially as a young prospect who both struggled, but then found footing, he might have a lot to share with the younger talent expected to arrive soon. Again, I wouldn't rush, but I'd take Castro easily over 11 of the 18 position players on the current 40-man, and if you just think of it as a Larnach for Castro trade (using Larnach's money), I'd make that deal.

Glad there wasn't a 'why they don't tender him' section, because this one is as clear cut as it gets. One defensive skill not mentioned (partly because it has never been measured yet) is the ability to challenge pitches in the new system. I remember (qualitatively) Jeffers was really good at that last spring. Whether good compared to other catchers is yet to be seen, but we'll see it next year with Jeffers in a Twins uniform either way.

Some of this is the product of a bad season with multiple players having down years, some of it is trading almost everyone NOT having a bad year at the deadline, and some of it is filling gaps with players not good enough. I have hopes a new calendar year (and hopefully a more engaged manager who will add some structure, coach up ability and hold players accountable for non-performance) will help players like Jeffers, Lewis, Lee, and even Julien (if he is still here in the spring) step up. Maybe Wallner will go to one of the schools and figure out how to hit a high fastball, because he isn’t a big leaguer for long if he doesn’t; probably should buy a 1B mitt and drill there as well. Most of the rest of these players (other than Rodriguez and your top three) are marginal. A couple still have a bit of prospect shine and might become bona fide roster players, but unless they step up, they are just holding spots until better players (like Gonzalez, Emma, Jenkins, Culpepper, Fedko, , or a solid/cheap vet or two) come along.