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PatPfund

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Everything posted by PatPfund

  1. PatPfund
    Solid plan. 100% with the OP on Steps 1 and 5. I get the thought, but no way for me on Goldschmidt; as you point out with Rodriguez, we have too many OFs. Trade Wallner or Larnach, turn the other into a 1B to ease the pressure. We also have bat-first OFs coming in Gonzalez and Mendez, along with Jenkins, and having Goldschmidt creates a DH/1B roadblock to use younger bats with more upside. (Roden still needs to earn a job; Outman is right at the top of my DFA-when-we-need-a-spot list.) If we are adding an FA position player, it probably should be someone who can at least play some SS; we are currently one Brooks Lee back spasm from reaching down to AA for a replacement. I’m also more inclined to talk to Festa about the ‘pen; his stuff looks to have more SP upside than Zebby’s, but he also has had recurring health issues that make me wonder if his frame is stout enough for an SP workload. While Zebby looks like a horse, but with a pitch mix that still needs work. If only we could merge the two…
  2. PatPfund
    If you signed Wili Castro, you could DFA Clemens, Fitzgerald, Gasper, Kreidler, McCusker, and Outman, and probably improve on both sides of the ball. (I like Fitz, and McCusker kinda got Rocco’d, but your points on them and the rest are valid.) Put Larnach and Wallner on the block and take the best offer on either, then give the other a 1B mitt and have them lumber around in a position for big slow dudes. Do the same for maybe Gonzalez and Mendez. And scour the late FA lists and ST waivers for better organizational depth. I’d rather see Fedko and Rosario get shots before packing peanuts like Kreidler.
  3. PatPfund
    What we all know is... nothing. Not who, not how much (some are assuming the amount of the debt, but if it was the full amount you'd be paying off, not paying down), not the family situation within the Pohlads (including any financial strains from the non-baseball side or how many family members want out of baseball), not what all of that non-knowledge means for the future of the team. We don't even know that Falvey doesn't have a budget already, we just know he hasn't told us what it might be. Personally, I'm fairly sure Falvey DOES have a budget, because this is a business, though there may be a bit of flex for any finalized minority sale. I'm also assuming we won't get direct information until/unless it serves the team, or is revealed in trades at the Jeffers/Ryan/Lopez/Buxton level.
  4. PatPfund
    Agreed assuming there is any sort of a future plan. One potential Jeffers plus (based on a small sample size) is that he seems really sharp on challenging called balls that were actually strikes, which under the new system could be the new version of framing.
  5. PatPfund
    Yeah, they probably need another SS for depth; pretty tough to start the year with an underperforming guy with a history of back problems, and a guy with very limited MLB time. It does pave a fast track for Culpepper if he hits, but SS is way worse than 1B.
  6. PatPfund
    We shouldn't waste our time with position Rule 5s. Our 40 man already has better prospects (Emma, Gonzalez, Mendez, Jenkins) who can be sent down if they struggle.
  7. PatPfund
    Prielipp should go to ST as an RP, get a trial, and see how it goes. If the team offers him an RP shot to make the MLB roster, or another year-plus of building up his arm if he doesn't re-damage it, and then a shot to make MLB if he is pitching well... I'm pretty sure he takes the immediate shot. No harm in trying Raya, but he'll have to pitch better in either format to matter in the Bigs.
  8. PatPfund
    Right now the Twins have Larnach, Wallner, Buxton, Roden, Emma, Martin, Gonzalez, and Mendez on the 40 man as realistic parts of the MLB team at some point in '26 (and Jenkins in the wings). Only Buxton (other than health) comes without big questions that have to be answered at some point, and I'd rather not put it off by adding somebody else's DFAs. Including at 1B/DH where some of the overflow bats will need to go. Spend our meager FA bucks on the 'pen.
  9. PatPfund
    I'm with you on the white flag business. And trading for one or two young outfielders when your top prospects (ones ranked on the global scale) are about to debut at the same position is the opposite of playing chess. At some point we need to either play our prospects to find out what we have, and 2026 seems like a great year to do it. A strong rotation covers up a multitude of rookie struggles, and you can always find someone to overpay mid-season if you need to deal the SPs (after getting another half-season out of them, possibly some gate revenues, and at least a chance to see which prospects aren't cutting it).
  10. PatPfund
    Culpepper is the only player I could see on other teams' radars. Position players are really hard to hide even on bad teams. Klein is a bit of surprise; hopefully that works out better than Travis Adams did this year.
  11. PatPfund
    The only one sitting on limited (stress on limited) value and any roster depth at all is Wallner. Lee and Sands have more value for this team than anyone else given our 'pen and SS. Lewis in an overall #1 at the bottom of his value. Ober might not be in the league a year from now.
  12. PatPfund
    They should trade neither before mid-season unless the deal is sensationally in their favor. A) They don't need salary relief post-deadline purge. B) They need to sort out at least some of the prospects that are starting to fill the 40-man (with another 4-6 coming pre-Rule 5) before adding another bucket-load to the system. C) The only way this team competes next year is with really good SPs carrying the load while the position peeps sort out. Cleveland's been doing it for years, and the Twins probably want the revenue boost only competing can bring. D) They'll likely get more mid-season, because teams lose a bit of reason at the deadline especially when it comes to SPs. Plus, Ryan will have pitched what is usually his best half, and Pablo may well be healthy and dominant again.
  13. PatPfund
    I'm okay with it as an ST starting point. Frankly the bullpen probably needs the bulk of the limited FA dollars likely available. On the position side, 2026 likely hinges on how many players step forward, and while I don't expect it to be Clemens, he can probably hold the spot until someone takes it from him, and there's at least the chance of remaining upside (and no big salary to roadblock a spot if he can't cut it).
  14. PatPfund
    Some you can get on the FA market for cheap (like Coulombe last year). But the high leverage arms are more likely conversions. Beyond the two the OP mentions, I could see the Twins talking to Bradley and Festa. The Bradley approach being along the lines of his having extended starts with mixed results while his stuff could play at star-level out of the 'pen. For Festa it would be more along the lines of whether his slender build can hold up under a SP inning load (it hasn't so far). Both have stuff that could play up. Zebby's could as well, though he has the frame to throw a lot of innings, and I'd guess they want to give that a shot first.
  15. PatPfund
    Ah, the eternal myth of the Twins OF depth. Their starting OF is roughly one star (Buxton); a mediocre player who is likely to be non-tendered and therefore has no trade return (Larnach); and a guy with mediocre defense, huge power but also huge holes in his swing, and an inability to stay on the field (Wallner, who goes into his age 28 season next year only clearing 80 MLB games played once, and who peaked last year at 104 where he looked a bit exposed). Backing them is a promising Martin whose athleticism flashed once Rocco stopped treating him like Castro, Roden who might be good, but hasn't been so far, Outman and Keirsey who can get the ball but can't hit it at an MLB level, and the prospects. On the trade market, that essentially boils down to Buxton and the prospects if you want any meaningful return, and Buxton has a no-trade deal he has been clear (despite speculation) about not waiving. While trading the prospects like Emma and Jenkins is just goofy. I expect they non-tender Larnach, try Wallner at 1B, and Outman/Keirsey are either DFA'd/org-depth at best holding spots until Rodriguez, Gonzalez, and/or Jenkins displace them. Maybe when Martin and Roden get pushed to the bench you can say we have depth, but right now we just have bodies and a no-trade star.
  16. PatPfund
    I can't see them spending that money if they keep Jeffers. And if they are spending that money, I'm not sure why they just wouldn't spend it on Jeffers. (I also see no need to trade Jeffers except as a salary dump, because I don't think the return would be game-changing.)
  17. PatPfund
    I'd love to see Connor Prielipp do the Duran thing and see how his stuff plays up as an RP (sell it to him as a chance to make MLB next year instead of '27 if his arm holds up). It's probably our best chance to a dominant late-inning option, and could be worth some ROY notice if it worked.
  18. PatPfund
    The OP is a s a great summary, but it and some of the follow up talk misses almost all of the context. Rule 5 strictures are VERY hard to meet; the player has to be on the 26-man active roster all season, or offered directly back to the team. Given modern roster usage (shorter starts and lots of RPs) the position player bench is so short that VERY FEW position players are even drafted, even by bad teams. How few? In the past three Rule 5 (MLB portion) drafts combined there have been a grand total of 40 picks (15 in '22, 10 in '23, 15 in '24). Only 8 of those are position players; 32 pitchers. And drafted players aren't "lost", they simply have MLB tryouts with another team, and many get returned (remember Phillies' Minor League Pitcher of the Year 2024 Eiberson Castellano?; drafted in Rule 5 by the Twins, and back to the Phillies by the start of the season). Also consider the Twins aren't swimming in depth at the MLB level, and there are lots of better teams with as deep or deeper farm systems, meaning dozens of other systems to shop (and again, probably 10-15 picks total). And finally adding them to the 40-man means waiving them later if the Twins need their spot, and you are far more likely to lose them permanently that way (like Lawyerson). Given that context, I'd consider the first 4 here as locks, because I could see them on the MLB club next year. I could see Mendez and Culpepper as strong possibilities, because they might help next year. The rest I wouldn't worry about. Maybe somebody grabs one or two (though probably not), but we likely get them back anyway; maybe better than before with the new perspective. (A clue on Mendez is that he wouldn't be an answer for next season at a position the Twins are dying for help; if he can't stick here, other teams might be thinking the same thing.)
  19. PatPfund
    Sad, but not surprised about Miranda. I am distinctly NOT a Rocco guy, but I didn't see mis-management in Miranda's case (unlike Martin or Lewis); José just couldn't match health with productivity for long. He'll get a chance somewhere else, and he'll have to play better to keep that chance. Lawyerson seems goofy, because this team needs arms, and because there is plenty of room on the 40-man, and there might have been a better chance of sneaking him through waivers right before Rule 5, but when your entire MLB résumé at 27 is 7 decent (not electric) innings pitched, I'm not losing sleep that next year Lawyerson will be closing for the AL in the All-Star game or that the loss will crush our prospects.
  20. PatPfund
    Well... you point out this is something that is only relevant under Falvey, but that means it is also only relevant under Baldelli who has been the manager for all of the staff who have been poached (at least I didn't see any examples from the one year of Falvey/Molitor). In fact, as their immediate supervisor, staff malfunction of good people is at least AS likely or maybe FAR MORE likely to be Rocco's fault than Falvey's. (One prime example is Rocco turning Lewis so dark, he refused to listen to the hitting coach. Even when the coach was giving good advice.) Falvey is probably hoping that's true, because in the chain of can the assistants/can the manager/can the FO, the can is getting dangerously close to home.
  21. PatPfund
    Neither. Frankly, I doubt anyone is giving May 2 yrs/$26 million (he's likely going to have to sign a one year 'prove it' deal for under $10 million). And I'm guessing the Twins' FA cap is about $5 million for a position player, not $10 million. More likely France again than Hoskins.
  22. PatPfund
    I seriously doubt MN is a top choice for anyone, but as many pointed out, opportunities are limited, and all players and coaches will opt for the least attractive MLB job over one at AAA (and until the Twins try to undercut the Pirates in payroll this isn't the least attractive. For coaches, the window closes fast; if Shelton offers a chance to move up or... just be employed in MLB, and they don't have someone else making a solid offer, it would be pretty brave to say no. On the player side, the Twins never really jump in early anyway; they wait until looming ST pushes prices down. For players in this spot, signing doesn't doom them; if they sign late with the Twins and play well, they can get traded right on to playoff rosters that passed them over in the offseason (like Bader to Philly, and Ty freakin' France rostered in the World Series). Being less than a garden spot isn't great, but it shouldn't be too much of a hindrance for next year.
  23. PatPfund
    Emotions are complex. Right there with @mikelink45 on the Groundshog Day feeling (or Charlie Brown and the football), but agree with @Nick Nelson that the Pirates experience would have been tough for anyone. Bigger key is the budget; if it is Pirate level, I'm assuming Ryan and Lopez are gone along with any real hope; if it is $100-110 million, they should be able to keep their rotation anchors, and field a team that could compete for the division, or at least be fun to watch.
  24. PatPfund
    Despite an upbeat headline, and an underlying 'he can do it' attitude, this is pretty bleak stuff about one of my favorite Twins. There are some unconvincing pretty pictures that try to show velocity doesn't matter (there is as much confirmation bias in the OP analysis as in supposing velocity doesn't matter, because 2025 could just as well show a pitcher getting hammered and trying different locations as opposed to one losing feel). There is data showing the backup pitches are pretty bad. There is the knowledge that a pitcher who DEPENDS on elite extension has a hip issue (and maybe rest works, but he had a month off and was still bad upon his return). Even the OP concludes the velocity is probably gone forever, and Ober "might require an uncomfortably complete reinvention." I agree, and that is why I'd non-tender one of my favorite Twins; such a re-invention is best done in AAA or someone else's uniform.
  25. PatPfund
    If a team is willing to guarantee 1/26th of their active MLB roster to an undrafted free agent signee with a 6.66 ERA in a handful of AAA innings we should just hope and pray they are in our division. Recent history shows 15 or fewer players total will get picked, and even many of those get returned (like Castellano). There are a LOT of better teams than the Twins (Phillies, Dodgers, Braves, etc) with as many (or more) prospects on the cusp of MLB. People are not going to be deep diving our farm system. FYI, Wells had a 2.49 ERA and a WHIP under 1 in 119 IP when he was Rule 5'd; that is the profile that attracts attention, not bad counting stats with only mediocre underlying indications.
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