PatPfund

It might not have paid off, but I would have given Hendricks at least a couple weeks run in the regular season if only because there is some potential upside (more than in the waiver wire rejects filling other spots in the 'pen). Pretty grim stuff going on down in Ft Myers; isn't this when hope is supposed to Spring eternal?

The OF stuff is pointless; Emmanuel Rodriguez can play better OF, has far more upside offensively, and honestly should be breaking camp with the Twins. Kreidler's only needed talent is on the infield, which is stocked with people who can't field, or can't hit, or both. Hopefully they can shake the AAA tree a little harder. (Culpepper should get AAA time, but as things stand now, I 'd rather see him getting starts with the Twins, and Brooks Lee being the utility guy than the other options listed here.)

I get not offering Ober arbitration was a bit of a hot take, BUT… this team has a budget issue, and paying Ober (who may be washed up) and Larnach (who is MLB-mediocre on O and defensively unplayable) $9 million is a waste of money. You could have signed Ober for less (with performance bonuses), let Larnach go, and had enough money to sign someone like Littell or Giolito to fill the gap that popped up. @JD-TWINS, technically Ober is 31 this year (his birthday is in July). He turned 30 last year. And, yep, he was hurt last year for over 50% of his innings, and he couldn’t pitch at the start of camp. Not sure how that is a point in your favor. I’m a giant Ober fan; I frankly think he hurt himself trying to extend in ways his body really can’t any more. I have no questions about his hearth and guts, but being a fan doesn’t blind me to the strong possibility his days as a top rotation starter are over. (Check Baseball Reference to see how quickly elite extension Tim Lincecum went from Cy Young level to bad to out of baseball. @jmlease1 I agree Ober was great until he wasn’t, but again, he was still unable to pitch at the start of camp, has underwhelmed in his two appearances so far, and appears to be regressing. Also, not offering arbitration does NOT mean losing a player, especially one with small value on the open market (which is Ober in a nutshell). And FYI, Zack Littell got signed for $3 million this year with a $4 million buyout for next year (so $7 million committed) with the Nationals. I’d bet he has a healthier/better year than Ober. (Because I don’t think the velo is coming back, and I’m afraid one of my favorite Twins will prove unhealthy again or un-useable in the rotation by mid-May.)

I'm not worrying about Ryan yet, but mostly because there is too many other rotation, and I don't want to think about that. On Ober, opinions can be cheap (especially mine), but (as posted last fall) I wouldn't have offered arbitration to Ober. Love him, but he lives and dies with elite extension, and betting on a 30+ y.o. maintaining his flexibility is a bad bet. He also wasn't an MLB pitcher until he added some speed, and there is NO sign on the field he can live there at 88-89. Hopefully Zebby gets sharp in St Paul, because I doubt Ober is in the rotation on Memorial Day. (Hope I'm wrong. Which happens a lot!)

Lee's range isn't going to get better past 25, but it is a bit early to write off the bat (180-ish games in MLB). Hopefully he hits, and especially I hope his back or whatever doesn't take him off the field much, because the real crime here is the utter lack of a backup plan. (Maybe the Twins could package Outman, Larnach, and Arcia to Los Angeles to get Ryan Fitzgerald back.) (And no I don't think that is a real solution, except the part about losing a couple deadwood OFs. More realistic hope is they can deal cheap for depth at the end of ST as rosters cut down.)

This is a positive first note as I have Ober in the "anything positive we get is gravy" category. (So dubious I wouldn't have offered arbitration to one of my favorite Twins.) I'm glad this went well, and the hip seems healthy, but I'll also be watching for a velocity ramp up, because he has always needed those extra few MPHs to be effective; it's what turned him from a low prospect to an MLBer, and extension only gets you so far (playing up from 92 to 95-ish worked, but playing up from 88 to 90-ish last year resembled batting practice).

Sweating "no options" for bad players is like the annual agonizing which position players to protect from Rule 5 (where almost everyone claimed is a pitcher). Outman is about to turn 29; exactly WHEN is this supposed improvement supposed to happen? How are Emma and/or Roden not better options at this point? Who really cares if Outman is lost? If Jeffers is doing most of the catching and Caratini is C2 (and you have other slo-mo bats like Larnach and Wallner to help DH), why on earth do we need a terrible bat whose only value is catching. Who really cares if Jackson is claimed? I don't want to see either Outman or Jackson go north with the team unless 3 OFs get hurt and/or the team trades Jeffers in ST.

I guess stats show you what you want to see. The OP waxes poetic about bat speed and tilt. I see he scored 28 for contact on a scale where 20 is zero. (Also see a release coming with an offer for St Paul if/when he isn't claimed.)

I hope you are right about changes to come, because trying to figure out combos that include Wallner and Larnach in the OF, Clemens or Bell at 1B, and Outman (so aptly named) on the roster at all is like arranging those Titanic deck chairs. Having slow, below average defenders who mostly will hit below the average for their positions is just brutal. Emmanuel Rodriguez should be on this team unless he either plays his way off or gets hurt. Hopefully Roden hits. Emma/Roden/Martin with Buxton does a lot more for me than Larnach/Outman/Wallner. Move the slow players to slow player spots (like 1B) or get them off the team. Play Gonzalez at 1B in St Paul, and if he keeps hitting, give him a shot at forcing someone else out. If this team doesn't get younger/faster/better-defensively the lineup won't matter.

Given the high-ceiling OF prospects knocking on the door at AAA, Larnach and Wallner (neither good defensively) should be getting big looks at 1B/DH, and told to play for roster spots (seriously, how much more mobile or better as hitters are they going to get at their ages). Clemens could play 2B, Keaschall could go to the OF for Larnach, Emma to RF for Wallner, and Gabby Gonzalez should be at 1B in St Paul. None of this is great, but at least you can shift bats to maximize strengths of the roster instead of pledging max time to a guy with a 91 OPS+.

The projection is (I guess) a reminder we have some pieces, and not worth much more since those pieces may (or may not) be gone by ST. One of the main sources of gloom in Twinsland is how deeply vested too many got in the ownership and possible sale. I frankly don't get that; as far as I'm concerned an owner needs to provide decent resources, and the less I know about them and hear about/from them the happier I am. And the younger Pohlads have (at least in the past) provided decent resources within the context of the division. After that it is up to the baseball side to perform. This team currently has enough to compete for our division; without making a move you can have a 'pen of Prielipp, Festa, Orza, Sands, Funderburk, Topa, and Klein on a budget of under $90 million (with several strong arms in St Paul as backup for both the rotation and the bullpen). We also have some serious hitting on tap (Emma, Gonzalez, Jenkins), and if people are so hung up on what we lost (which really was Duran, Jax, Varland, and a bunch of expiring contracts), many of those like Castro and Bader are available right now on the FA pile. Yep, things may change, and yep, a bunch of things have to go right, but that is pretty much the same thing you can say about most teams that aren't the Dodgers. Chin up peeps, rub some dirt on the spot that hurts, and let's play ball.

This is depressing stuff, but I tend to agree with @Mike Sixel's grading of the teams. Buxton isn't likely to give a blanket waiver, he'll want approval on the team, and teams as far away as the Twins from a title aren't likely to qualify. I don't agree at all with the thoughts that Buxton gets a new contract to waive the no-trade. I don't think the Twins actually want to trade him unless blown away by an offer; he is a cost-effective superstar, the main reason to watch the Twins, and this team needs revenue in both ticket sales and Twins.tv subscriptions; carrying Byron into the season boosts both of those big time. The only reason this is happening is that Byron MAY have signaled to the team he is ready to go, and that comes with zero leverage for new contract terms. My personal guess is that Lopez, Ryan, and Buxton are here into the season for several reasons. One the team needs revenue (bears repeating), two they probably get more in-season (think of the haul the Reds got for a gimpy shouldered SP, or what the Twins just got for a few good RPs and a batch of expiring contracts), and three it gives a few months peek at our own prospects so we can see what we actually need. Also as a personal thought, if I'm Derek Shelton there is no way I sign with the Twins without at least a chance to compete with a decent team (dude could have easily gotten a bench coach job, and waited for a less Pirate-like rerun).

@dxpavelka I laughed out loud at your comment, because I was looking to move Larnach and/or Wallner, and couldn't think of a legitimate return I wanted, so I went 'no trade' mode. I spent 10 mill on Jansen (please Twins, don't do that), because if they don't make any moves, they should have some money to spend and still be under $100 million (and a mostly young 'pen could use some veteran leadership). Recent news about Buxton also has me wondering if Byron isn't just open to being traded, but has asked for it. That sure would make tendering Larnach more understandable (he's at least an average MLB bat in a lineup that might suddenly be missing its best).

My 1st stab at this. Goal was $100 million, and no trades. I don't see any future for either Larnach or Wallner in the OF, and neither has hit well enough for any stretch to warrant 1b or DH, but I had to put them somewhere. Roden is 4th OF until he shows he is an MLB hitter. Fitz over Cruddy Kreidler, Love Bailey, but he didn't look any better to me after his month off; I think he is 2026's Most Expensive Saint. I'm giving Abel the early nod over Zebby; Matthews, Morris, Rojas, and Adams are the core Saints SPs, Klein swings, Raya gets 'pen work and/or swings. I signed Jansen to close, Prielipp, Festa, Orza, and Sands are higher leverage, and Funderburk and Topa fill things out. If they click even a little bit, there is payroll space to make an in-season move, if they bomb, you have big trade chips in Buxton, Lopez, and Ryan at the deadline. C: Ryan Jeffers ($6.60M) 1B: Trevor Larnach ($4.70M) 2B: Luke Keaschall ($0.80M) 3B: Royce Lewis ($3.00M) SS: Brooks Lee ($0.80M) LF: Austin Martin ($0.80M) CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M) RF: Emmanuel Rodriguez ($0.80M) DH: Matt Wallner ($0.80M) 4th OF: Alan Roden ($0.80M) Utility: Ryan Fitzgerald ($0.80M) Utility: Kody Clemens ($1.10M) Backup C: Alex Jackson ($1.80M) POS: Add Dead Money Here ($0.00M) SP1: Pablo Lopez ($21.75M) SP2: Joe Ryan ($5.80M) SP3: Taj Bradley ($0.82M) SP4: Simeon Woods Richardson ($0.80M) SP5: Mick Abel ($0.82M) RP: Justin Topa ($1.23M) RP: Kody Funderburk ($0.80M) RP: Cole Sands ($1.30M) RP: Eric Orze ($0.82M) RP: Bailey Ober ($4.60M) RP: Connor Prielipp ($0.80M) RP: David Festa ($0.80M) RP: Kenley Jansen ($10.00M) POS: Add Dead Money Here ($0.00M) Payroll is 19.87% under budget

So, just for the record, the OP does NOT have Outman on the roster; he is listed as the 6th of a 5 man OF. Also, being out of options doesn't "lock" you to the 26-man. You can be DFA'd, clear waivers, and accept re-assignment. Happens all the time (can't remember how many Dobnak got DFA'd, and the Twins had a middle reliever a few years ago they DFA'd like 4 times in-season before someone else finally claimed them). I get this is an if-the-season-started-today kind of thing, but Julien is going to have to hit his way on to the roster in ST, and I've given up hope of that happening. I still think Larnach is pushed permanently out of the OF, and he'd make a nice target at 1b, which opens up the DH spot for rotation, and an OF spot for Rodriguez. Julien and Outman get shots, don't hit, and get DFA'd to work it out in St Paul or for someone else.

Well, no. But crafty piece to fire up interaction at the site! Well done, sir!

Solid plan. 100% with the OP on Steps 1 and 5. I get the thought, but no way for me on Goldschmidt; as you point out with Rodriguez, we have too many OFs. Trade Wallner or Larnach, turn the other into a 1B to ease the pressure. We also have bat-first OFs coming in Gonzalez and Mendez, along with Jenkins, and having Goldschmidt creates a DH/1B roadblock to use younger bats with more upside. (Roden still needs to earn a job; Outman is right at the top of my DFA-when-we-need-a-spot list.) If we are adding an FA position player, it probably should be someone who can at least play some SS; we are currently one Brooks Lee back spasm from reaching down to AA for a replacement. I’m also more inclined to talk to Festa about the ‘pen; his stuff looks to have more SP upside than Zebby’s, but he also has had recurring health issues that make me wonder if his frame is stout enough for an SP workload. While Zebby looks like a horse, but with a pitch mix that still needs work. If only we could merge the two…

If you signed Wili Castro, you could DFA Clemens, Fitzgerald, Gasper, Kreidler, McCusker, and Outman, and probably improve on both sides of the ball. (I like Fitz, and McCusker kinda got Rocco’d, but your points on them and the rest are valid.) Put Larnach and Wallner on the block and take the best offer on either, then give the other a 1B mitt and have them lumber around in a position for big slow dudes. Do the same for maybe Gonzalez and Mendez. And scour the late FA lists and ST waivers for better organizational depth. I’d rather see Fedko and Rosario get shots before packing peanuts like Kreidler.

What we all know is... nothing. Not who, not how much (some are assuming the amount of the debt, but if it was the full amount you'd be paying off, not paying down), not the family situation within the Pohlads (including any financial strains from the non-baseball side or how many family members want out of baseball), not what all of that non-knowledge means for the future of the team. We don't even know that Falvey doesn't have a budget already, we just know he hasn't told us what it might be. Personally, I'm fairly sure Falvey DOES have a budget, because this is a business, though there may be a bit of flex for any finalized minority sale. I'm also assuming we won't get direct information until/unless it serves the team, or is revealed in trades at the Jeffers/Ryan/Lopez/Buxton level.

Agreed assuming there is any sort of a future plan. One potential Jeffers plus (based on a small sample size) is that he seems really sharp on challenging called balls that were actually strikes, which under the new system could be the new version of framing.

Yeah, they probably need another SS for depth; pretty tough to start the year with an underperforming guy with a history of back problems, and a guy with very limited MLB time. It does pave a fast track for Culpepper if he hits, but SS is way worse than 1B.

We shouldn't waste our time with position Rule 5s. Our 40 man already has better prospects (Emma, Gonzalez, Mendez, Jenkins) who can be sent down if they struggle.

Prielipp should go to ST as an RP, get a trial, and see how it goes. If the team offers him an RP shot to make the MLB roster, or another year-plus of building up his arm if he doesn't re-damage it, and then a shot to make MLB if he is pitching well... I'm pretty sure he takes the immediate shot. No harm in trying Raya, but he'll have to pitch better in either format to matter in the Bigs.

Right now the Twins have Larnach, Wallner, Buxton, Roden, Emma, Martin, Gonzalez, and Mendez on the 40 man as realistic parts of the MLB team at some point in '26 (and Jenkins in the wings). Only Buxton (other than health) comes without big questions that have to be answered at some point, and I'd rather not put it off by adding somebody else's DFAs. Including at 1B/DH where some of the overflow bats will need to go. Spend our meager FA bucks on the 'pen.

I'm with you on the white flag business. And trading for one or two young outfielders when your top prospects (ones ranked on the global scale) are about to debut at the same position is the opposite of playing chess. At some point we need to either play our prospects to find out what we have, and 2026 seems like a great year to do it. A strong rotation covers up a multitude of rookie struggles, and you can always find someone to overpay mid-season if you need to deal the SPs (after getting another half-season out of them, possibly some gate revenues, and at least a chance to see which prospects aren't cutting it).