Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

PatPfund

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    657

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Profiles

News

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects Ranking

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

Minnesota Twins Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by PatPfund

  1. PatPfund
    Spring training stats are not meaningless, they simply have a different context than regular season stats, especially the first half of ST when you are working on things, or when healthy vets are just preparing for the season (like Lopez). France is a former All-Star trying out/showcasing himself not just for the Twins, but for other teams in general, and the fact that he even has the health to slam pitching around the way he has is a great thing (because the background talent is already MLB-proven). I think the Twins have a great lineup addition, and what could prove to be a big trade deadline asset. I'm pretty excited Julien's bat looks like it is coming back, but he has been absolutely brutal in the field. He's likely going to St Paul to work on that, which should concern the young man, because the wide-open door that was there for him last spring is rapidly closing with Brooks Lee already on the team, and Luke Keaschall in the offing. (Eddie might be another trade chip if he gets off to a good start with the Saints.) And maybe it is just the games I've seen (are the Twins ever going to televise a home ST game?), but Festa had a great first outing, while the other times have been the opposite of him 'pounding the strike zone'. He has labored pretty badly to throw strikes, which may not show up as walks this spring (where people are getting hits in 3 ball counts), but do show in his pitch totals. (Can't find game logs, but pretty sure he threw 60 pitches in 2.1 innings against the Red Sox.) He really could use more AAA time with the specific mission to get more outs on fewer pitches.
  2. PatPfund
    @Doctor Gast pretty much wrote my post, but... Rule 5 pitchers are often drafted from AA, because teams usually protect MLB-level SPs at AAA. Johan Santana was plucked from A ball, while Ryan Pressley was a Rule 5 from AA. Odds probably favor Castellano going back to Philly, but I thought the Twins were trending toward giving this a shot even before the Topa/Tonkin setbacks paved a clear path. Pretty sure Topa starts the year on the MiLB IL, and Tonkin on the MLB IL. (The team will likely have to DFA Tonkin at some point for flexibility, but it saves money if they can get somebody to claim his guaranteed contract off of waivers when they do it, which won't happen while he is injured.)
  3. PatPfund
    I'm glad for the AAA support, because Bader hasn't been much more durable than Buxton, and his defensive metrics are in decline as well (not surprising since they are pretty close in age). I'm pretty sure we'll have an April Saint starting several games out there this year, but the options are so much better than the Celestino Era.
  4. PatPfund
    ST stats are a mixed bag (except pretty much wins and losses, which are meaningless given all the late inning substitutions). For vets with locked roster spots like Correa, you just want to see them "getting their work in" professionally with good health. For fringe players (like France), or those on the outside trying to catch big league eyes (like Keaschall), they do matter; it is how you win jobs (like Castro a few years ago), how you get future looks, or how you can lose both. The next few weeks are more important than the past few as teams trim extra players, and the remaining group hones in on the regular season, but... France is here on a glorified tryout/showcase, and with his future on the line, he is cashing in (with not just the Twins noticing). Pretty sure he's hit his way onto the team despite Julien showing signs of hitting life, and if minor leaguers are pushing by May/June, France could be a great trade chip. No way I want Keaschall starting the year with the Twins at DH. He needs time to work back into his field defense after TJ surgery, and should do that playing every day in St Paul until all facets are MLB-ready. If France makes the team, they essentially rotate him, Miranda, Lewis, Correa, Larnach, and Wallner through DH, which is plenty of pop, and gives some players who could use it, semi-days off.
  5. PatPfund
    You can't just hide Rule 5's on the IL. The player has to be on the active 26-man for at least 90 days to satisfy requirements. Any days short of 90 extend into the next season until the requirement is met.
  6. PatPfund
    All is subject to change since the most important 3 weeks of ST lie ahead, but... Topa is injured, and has little time to pitch his way onto the roster. Plus, he has options, so I think there is nearly a zero chance he makes the 26-man roster; his trip north starts in St Paul (and the MiLB IL). Maybe it was a typo, but Castellano has to remain on the 26-man, not 40-man all season. The kid has flashed some electric stuff, so unless he melts down I fully expect him to make the roster. Signing Bader (and not trading Castro) pretty much consigned Martin and Keirsey to St Paul, but the infield is shaping up to be the best of battles. Lee, Julien, Gasper, Miranda, and France have all shown signs of being (badly needed) offensive forces; if that continues, I'd expect the team to make decisions in a way that preserves player capital to ensure against injury or feed a trade, I wouldn't be surprised to see Julien in St Paul to work on his D, but mostly agree with the OP's IF shakeout.
  7. PatPfund
    Great piece! The bullpen shapes up as you say (as you note the Varland appearances pretty much spell out his new position); the key strategy on Tonkin is probably to waive him at a point maximized for some other team claiming him (and his guaranteed though small contract). I'm not as optimistic on trading for Castellano's rights as others, and the stuff looks great, so (right now) I'd be keeping him as a longer innings eater. At 2B I'm hoping somebody seizes the hitting bull by the horns (2023 Julien, are you out there?), but if it falls to D the scales probably tip to Castro or Lee. (Though Lee should play a lot even if it means he starts in St Paul.) Zebby has been even better looking than last year, but barring injury, I'd still start the year with SWR. Festa still looks like he struggles to throw strikes at times (the stuff is great, but he seriously dampens its impact when he takes 60 pitches to get 7 outs). I still expect (barring injury) Matthews and Festa to start at AAA, but maybe Zebby is the first call if current trends hold.
  8. PatPfund
    Hat tip to you, sir! It has been a few years now since I stumbled across Twins Daily, and the community you've helped create is pretty dang awesome even (especially?) when I disagree with some other passionate member/poster. The spice of life! Centered around the Greatest Game!
  9. PatPfund
    So just how is Cartaya better than Camargo? (And FYI, any backup catcher's usage has been almost zero the last two years, because Jeffers and Vasquez have been available pretty much every game.) Cartaya has been a serious dud offensively; Camargo's down-year 2024 in AAA is pretty much better than anything Cartaya has posted above A ball. (Jair also hit 21 AAA HRs in '23 including multiple grand slams.) Defensively Camargo threw out 30% of basestealers in AAA; Cartaya's combined AA/AAA stat was 16%. Right now I'd rather have Camargo at the plate and Camargo behind the plate, and it isn't close. What will Cartaya have to do to catch 70 MLB games next year? Get better. A lot better.
  10. PatPfund
    When you ignore a whole season, and the most recent at that to claim Varland is a great reliever, well, call it what you want, but it isn't a full look. Eddie Julien was great in '23, then the league caught up to him, and he is fighting for a roster spot. Varland is pretty much the same, and likely to start in St Paul given his options and the 'pen depth. (And the even great rotational depth if he wants to stay a starter.) As of the end of last season, his pitches were not quite good enough in either individual quality or as used in sequences, and opponents were hitting like a collective All-Star off of him in either role. He needs to get better before he can excel. In either role. (And again, I hope he does!)
  11. PatPfund
    When you cherry pick you can flex stats all sorts of ways, and it wasn't lost on me that you sort of skip over the most recent season, but here is some of the stat line from Varland's relief 2024: 9 appearances, opp BA .320, slugging .493, OPS .859. I would definitely call that homely. It is in fact only marginally better than his starting appearances. That were bad enough for the bullpen strategy. Look, maybe he came up with a better curve ball and things will be better, but his fastball isn't good enough to fool enough people. Without a dominant "other" pitch, Louie's failures are going to be loud. (I love the guy, but I'd rather see him get work in St Paul until he's shown he is ready in either role.)
  12. PatPfund
    Louis (for spelling and his family, but you can call him Louie) wants to be an SP. My guess is the Twins will give him a stretched out workload in ST, and give him a chance to make his case (something that doesn't hurt the team). If he doesn't, he'll probably go to St Paul to work on RP development (he may have tools but his relief stats are homely). If Varland has great stretched out appearances he probably goes to St Paul anyway. Adams got lit up in his first appearance, and if he doesn't right that ship quickly, he is an easy waive off of the 40-man (and unlikely to be claimed if that happens). Being on that roster is the only reason to give him AAA starts ahead of Festa, Matthews, Morris, Raya, Lewis, and maybe Varland and/or Ynoa. My guess he starts the year as the sixth starter (something needed to start), and then he and Dobnak do piggybacks on some of the other starts until stretching out finishes and MLB call-ups create gaps (which will happen). Tonkin is a fungible arm; a decent MLB RP with the service time that you have to waive him to send him down, and not good enough that you might have to send him down. Nobody would trade much, because even if you can't get Tonkin, you can get someone like him. Twins are going to have to waive him at some point even if he makes the team, because they will need the flexibility/spot at some point. No way I see Canterino in a rotation this year. If he has a healthy bullpen year, then maybe next year (unless he is so good that ends the convo... like Duran did a few years ago). Possibly Brock Stewart good or better. Definitely Brock Stewart fragile (or more?).
  13. PatPfund
    Ideally, Julien figures it out, but otherwise there are worse solutions. I'm definitely someone who rolls their eyes up into their head when Rocco gets played by other managers into taking out his better players with a mid-game pitching change, but... ...I get a sense Baldelli is finally feeling like his job is on the line (and it is even if ownership doesn't change). The radical (only for him) idea of having the team do defensive drills as a team. And talking about concentrating Martin on a position instead of moving him around (ensuring he plays none of them well). He may be slower to remove Wallner on a one-off pitching change as that bat really too good to lose.
  14. PatPfund
    I still believe the Twins did the right thing. The end result of many minors games may not be to win, but it definitely isn't to throw games to get rest time, and much worse, make your teammate (who is also fighting for advancement) look terrible so you can get time off. I think he deserves another chance (it's not like this was a sexual assault), but he also has to earn it, and if this statement ends up undermined by the investigation, most organizations are going to look at the denial as another judgement lapse that has to be overcome. (Probably why his agency didn't want him talking.)
  15. PatPfund
    As the OP said, it is pretty much about health. Even if Miranda (best option now and in the future) and France (glorified try-out, and best case shines for us and is traded/signed elsewhere by next year) hit, there should be options. As @chpettit19 points out, we have a couple corner OFs who both hit from the other side of Miranda and France, certainly have the height to make a great target, and wield 1B-caliber bats. We also have an MLB Top Twenty 20 prospect already on the 40-man that plays OF with more athleticism than Wallner or Larnach, and down at AA we have one of the top 5 prospects in all of baseball who also plays OF. Leaving defense aside (and anyone arguing for Ford or Gasper should be happy with that), I'd much rather keep Wallner/Larnach bats in the order than make space for Ford, Gasper, or Willi. Or France unless he hits his way on to the team in major fashion. (Plus, the room will have to be made in the next two months for Emma, so hopefully one of our tall dudes is getting reps now.)
  16. PatPfund
    The starting bullpen is so inflexible (too good to send down or out of options or Rule 5) that I wouldn't lock in Tonkin. It isn't that he is bad, but he isn't great either; sort of the definitive fungible pitcher. I kind of feel like he is pitching for his job against Castellano, and even if he does make the trip north, Tonkin is probably the guy Alcala comes up for (dangerously assuming a healthy April for Stewart). And this is really the opposite of what you asked, but I'm fairly mystified by Travis Adams on the 40-man. On a recent TwinsDaily video, discussion turned to the Saints rotation, and it is hard to make a case that Adams is even good enough for that (Festa, Matthews, Raya, Morris, Lewis then maybe Adams and Dobnak?). Unless he hops on the relief train, I'd guess Adams gets bumped when the St Paul shuttle adds a passenger. (And to answer the question, I don't think Canterino makes the club out of ST, but think he will prove dominant once he gets his feet wet in the bigs.)
  17. PatPfund
    Good looking prospect, and the type of player that makes watch MiLB so much fun. (Pretty happy to see the Twins.tv package comes with the minor leagues as well, though I did plunk for the full MLB.tv plus Twins package.) Speaking of pitching prospects, it was really fun to see Castellano in a Twins game today (some great stuff on display). Festa also looked great (his stuff is always great, but he was throwing a ton of strikes today, which is his key to another level).
  18. PatPfund
    Look at what the team did, not what it says. France has a small non-guaranteed contract; this is essentially a spring try-out/showcase. If Miranda hits he'll be playing., regardless. If France doesn't hit and Julien or Lee do, Ty won't make the team. Even if France does hit his way onto the team (and there is certainly a path), Miranda is only in danger of being bypassed if he doesn't play well, which is pretty much the story of MLB (as recent All-Star France can tell you).
  19. PatPfund
    Some of these seemingly hard decisions are going to be super easy in a few weeks when play and injury has sorted some of them out (including possible injury to one of the top 5). But all being equal, I agree with the top five. (I also agree with any statement that Opening Day is relatively meaningless except where it means losing a player.) If Castellano throws well, I think they keep him to start the year and explore a deal with the Phils to give him options if/when the need becomes apparent. Tonkin has a guaranteed contract, and probably is in barring injury or poor performance. They have to waive him, and potentially lose the $1 million spent on him. Varland is being started as a starter, and as such, he likely starts the year at St Paul and if he is converted to the 'pen, I expect that to happen at St Paul as well, before being called up. (If anyone thinks Varland is great right now as an RP, the reality is a lot more mixed. Much like his starts, RP Louis missed bats unless he didn't, and the contacts were pretty loud.) Alcala would be my third, but since he loses options, they may indeed start him in St Paul to keep some short term flexibility. A wild card could appear in camp (like if Canterino starts blowing people away like Duran did a few years ago), and force their way onto the roster. But the Twins have also (for the second year in a row) built a VERY inflexible 'pen with the back end (Tonkin, Alcala soon, Castellano) in keep 'em or lose 'em mode, and the reality is you need a shuttle. So again, things will change quickly after Opening Day (Tonkin DFA'd? Stewart hurt? Castellano sent back/down?), and good arms with more flexibility (Varland? Canterino? Prielipp? Adams?) will make up the 'pen shuttle.
  20. PatPfund
    In '23 Julien came up scratching and clawing for an MLB job. His hitting forced the issue; he was simply to send down after a 'temporary' call-up. And he worked very hard to improve his defense, which did in fact improve from dicey to solid. In '24 Julien looked like a player who had an MLB job, and was letting momentum and time carry him forward. Passivity at the plate. An end to hard work on defense (and a regression there toward butchery). Hopefully the offseason lit some sort of lamp, because '23 Julien was a guy you couldn't keep off the roster, while the '24 version is the type that finds themselves out of baseball quickly. (I'm betting on '23 Edouard.)
  21. PatPfund
    Badly, badly needed correction. You can't teach range, but you can teach where to be in that range, and what to do. Not just "I know" in the head, but "I can and have" in muscle memory through drill. Not every team can afford an Ohtani or Betts, but every team can afford the staff that implements these drills. It is the cheapest way to give yourself a chance in every game; don't give away free outs. (Really sad it took over six years to figure it out, but better late than never.)
  22. PatPfund
    Or they'll be better than last year with a bit more health, because according to the Athletic, Rocco is actually running team conditioning/defensive drills as part of the schedule instead of the previous 6 years of letting the players set their own work in the morning (meaning even if you did do those drills, you didn't do them with your all of your teammates). Part of defense is the skill you are born with it, the other part is the competence that comes with drill, knowing what to do, knowing where your teammates will be, knowing all that from actually doing it. The Rocco-era Twins haven't ever done that, and have often played like it. (Correa praising the new plan sort of confirms for me that last fall's shots at younger players not putting in the work were directed at team management as well as the players.)
  23. PatPfund
    Ryan Pressley was a Rule 5 pick. (Some good years, plus he brought us Gilberto Celestino in a trade. Which might cancel out the good years...)
  24. PatPfund
    It is a key year for another reason; I'm pretty sure this is Varland's last option year for the Twins, so if he starts the year in AAA (very likely), they won't be able to shuttle him next year. I'm not real sold on Louie in either role; good arm, great bulldog mentality, healthy arm (which is huge), pitches not quite good enough. (Thanks to @bean5302 for the data to reinforce my eyeball opinion that Louie is very hit and miss as an RP.) (It cracks me up nobody really talks about the SP who dominated in an RP role in '23. I remember Dusty Baker talking to Rocco, and saying "Paddack. Who knew?") My #1 hope is that he worked on that in the offseason (new pitch? extra velo? more movement?), and can succeed in a starting role, because that is more valuable to the team. (If you doubt me, try to think back to a trade deadline where you DIDN'T want the Twins to get an SP.) My #2 hope is Louie sharpened his stuff enough to warrant an eventual full-time gig in the 'pen. Otherwise he probably is gone in a trade by next year.
  25. PatPfund
    The true battle of training camp! (I'm putting some longer odds fake money on Castellano, but for the team's sake, I'd love for it to be Canterino and Keaschall pushing for the honor.)
×
×
  • Create New...