PatPfund

This isn't a no-brainer for me, and as much as I love Bailey (and he is one of my favorite Twins), if the Twins don't think he will regain his velocity (which he DID NOT do after his time out), they should decline arbitration. Ober relies on elite extension to get his pitches to 'play up', and at 89 mph it clearly isn't enough to be an MLB starter. There is a real chance (only Ober and the Twins would know) that his elite extension helped cause his injury, and he isn't 'under 30' any more (he turned 30 in July). Another past fave of mine that relied on elite extension was Tim Lincecum, and when he lost a bit of flexibility he went from Cy Young material to terrible in one year. And never got it back (net negative WAR the second half of his career). $4.5 million is not peanuts (it is roughly what we paid Bader this year), and if we gamble it on a broken pitcher and lose we might regret the chance to add a piece big time. Forget "flipping" him after arbitration; other teams read injury reports and news too, and will likely wait for his release so they can try him out on our dime.

I don't think you can tell from these sketches. The FO is going to have to make the call, and while their history is mixed, they at least seem to be saying the right things. (Tons of hand-wringing here about the trade deadline and 'tearing down the roster.' Half the teardown consisted of players - Castro, France, Paddack, Bader, Coulombe - who were on expiring contracts and not expected to be back. We could still re-sign any we want back. We got solid prospects at SP (Villoria), C (Jimenez), OF (Mendez), and a few SP lottery tickets in return. Of the other 5, Brock Stewart lasted 4 outings before wrecking his shoulder, and would be dubious for next, or any year. Correa was a salary dump that may allow us to keep Ryan AND Lopez, and for sure provides any chance at FA roster additions. The only real loss against next year is Duran, Varland, and Jax, and we got real assets in return including two SPs likely in our rotation next year (Abel, Bradley), another highly thought of catching prospect (Tait), a possible starting OF next year (Roden), and a great lefty SP prospect (Rojas). The FO did what it needed to do given the standings, including firing the manager they liked after the season.) Interviewing Shelton, I'd want to make sure he wasn't another Rocco; this team needs directional change. I think more of Punto after reading the Athletic piece; he has done some of the grunt work needed on the coaching side, but I'd grill him on style and check for outside confirmation from the Padres organization and players if possible. Vázquez seems like the most complete candidate; I like the whole 'bench coach with minor league managing experience including guys like Detroit's Lombard not yet in this conversation. I'm not rushing to lock up the Cubs guy; if you put out there that you are keeping Ryan and Lopez, a good manager should be able to compete in this division next season, and that will be attractive enough for the sort of person the team needs. (What I don't think we need is a "star" player like Torii Hunter with little experience drilling or supervising; we just had that. Love the guy, but no.)

Look forward to the announcement of Kreider's DFA. I can only assume they are just using this as a tip of their cap toward him, so that he'll re-sign as org depth after his release.

No brainer; tender arbitration. Prime candidate to be revitalized under a more active/supportive managing regime; Lewis's odd quotations (along with some cryptic Correa statements and the Jax blowup) were major symptoms of how badly Rocco had lost this team.

I loved Torii as a player, but no. Managing is a lot of work; there are tons of details to organize, staff and players to personally manage, and you get ripped for stuff all the time. You not only have to do that stuff well to last, but you sure had better like/love it. Nothing in Torii's playing career or in his life after he retired shows any interest in hard baseball work other than the chance to drop in very part-time as a 'special coach'. Even his quote about having to look into it if something came up and giving an opportunity hard consideration is about the weakest/waffley statement of interest in a major job I've ever heard. It's like it is some team's job to come to him as a zero-experience candidate, and try to convince him to get off his couch. Hard pass.

Prielipp is going to be 25 next year, and it likely is going to take at least one more full season of buildup (assuming he stays healthy) before he is even ready to take a full SP load. (Last year's combined 82.2 IP is 73% of his TOTAL IP over the last 6 seasons combined.) Pitch the bullpen to him as a way to make MLB next year, and see if he can be our next Duran (or part of the pitch can be 'follow the Garrett Crochet path; 'pen to SP').

I looked him up on baseball-reference, and this guy, who will be 35 next spring, has had exactly TWO seasons where he has pitched as many as 8 MLB innings. 8. Only once in his career was he anything notable. Can't count on him to be healthy, can't count on him to be good. Decline the option, non-tender, and find a younger, healthier fungible arm; they're out there.

Keep him. Floor is a healthier, younger Tonkin; ceiling is a poor man's Jax.

Non-tender; check in with him in January if both sides might be interested. (I'm guessing he'll be a late invite wherever he goes.)

Non-tender him, and I'll wish him well at his next stop (where I suspect he'll be making a quarter of the suggested arbitration figure).

Non-tender and wait. The Twins have wasted too much money trying to lock up mediocre arms early (like Tonkin last year). There have been decent pitchers at really good value right before training camp the past few years, so there is no need to rush on fungible bullpen arms.

I'd expect payroll in the $100-110 million range. I wouldn't offer arbitration to Larnach (replaceable), or Ober (not a viable starter unless the lost velocity comes back in full). I'd trend towards 'no' on Clemens as well (why lock down even $1.2 million on a marginal player likely available just before camp if you even still want him). I'd buy Wallner a 1B glove, and strongly suggest he go to some baseball specialist to learn how to hit upper range fastballs (unless he wants to sell appliances at Sears). If you keep Lopez and Ryan, and fill out the rest of the rotation with young arms, you'd still have a couple pieces you might be able to crank up for high leverage 'pen innings (like Prielipp). Spend some FA money on a couple solid RP arms, and you'd have a team that could easily compete in this division if the young players click. If not, they get needed experience, and you can always deal an SP or two at the trade deadline and get far more than trading them in the offseason. Not spending big in the offseason also can leave enough budget to add a piece if things DO click, and if you aren't fishing for a starting pitcher you are more likely to find an affordable piece.

Rocco WAS a major part of the problem, and deserved to be fired. His teams were consistently mediocre/bad on defense for a manager who didn't believe in team defensive drills. His 'do your own thing' methodology was good for vets with established routines, but often left younger players like Lewis and Martin struggling. And "at the end of the day" his teams had three of the worst September collapses in team history over the past 4 years. FYI, comparing win percentages with Kelly and Gardenhire is ridiculous; Rocco's Twins had more financial resources thrown at them than in any other manager's term. There are indeed multiple ways to inspire a team, but given decent players Kelly won two World Series, while Rocco managed three total playoff wins in 7 years. Leadership in his successful years came from Nelson Cruz and Carlos Correa, not the manager's office. This was a needed step one in rebuilding a competitive team.

Clemens had some nice moments in a grim year, and I might not mind him as a bench player, but his OPS+ was 96, and that is not what you want to roll out at an O-heavy position like 1B. I'd rather see someone like Wallner or Gabriel Gonzalez get full tryouts in ST. Martin is the poster child for Rocco mis-management; this version showed flashes of being here two year ago, but sporadic playing time, and being moved all over the field defensively buried him. Ryan Fitzgerald actually showed me a lot in his time. OPS+ of 106, good baserunner, and a solid defender at SS and 2B might make for a better bench piece than Clemens, and at least worth an extended look in ST.

This is a pretty whiny article written in the frustration of team-sellus-interruptus. I am no fan of the Pohlads, but... Who has provided their AL Central team with the most financial resources of the past few years? The Pohlads. The front office has had a bunch of hit and miss, but guess what? Almost everybody's does. One the OP missed in its bitterness was getting Austin Martin (not our draft pick, FYI) and SWR for Berríos; not popular at the time but Martin was the highlight of the second half (after Rocco both played him and stopped trying to turn him into another Castro), and SWR was almost a full game up on Berríos this year (while being a half dozen years younger). A big miss? Manuel Margot, but I'm pretty sure it was Rocco sending him up to pinch hit so many times he set the MLB record for pinch futility. Good managers can make a huge difference in how teams play, and changing managers now is the proper first move.

I reject this is an unattractive position; if a candidate is told Lopez and Ryan are starting the year here (which fits the budget), anyone worth hiring should be able to compete for a division title given our division. Given this team's malaise, and the likely need to fire people up, a long-time Rocco staffer like Conger won't likely move the dial on the "change" needed to sell tickets. But... I mostly want somebody who will drill some defensive skill into this team, and provide leadership (both supportive and tough) to get them to actually play like a team instead of a bag of spare parts. Then you can have clubhouse leaders support the manager instead of having to do the hard part of the job as Cruz and Correa had to.

Short answer, no. There is no reason to trade Ryan or Lopez in the offseason; if the Twins want to sell tickets next year (and you do most of that in the offseason), they need to keep their SPs at the core of a cheaper team, fire the manager and bring in someone who knows how to work with young players drill the team better in fundamentals (like defense played as a team not individuals). Right there is your quick road to recovery that doesn't cost a lot, and puts emphasis on where the team is strongest; starting pitching and young/cheap top prospects. If it doesn't work out, you can always shop Lopez and Ryan at the trade deadline AFTER they've helped you sell tickets, and WHEN you can get the most for them. The Red Sox didn't just offer a lot for Ryan (maybe) at the deadline because he was hot, it was overpay because that's what teams do at the trade deadline, overpay for a dream to save their season. That won't happen over the winter when there is plenty of time to consider downsides.

I'd put Rocco 5th of the 13 MN era managers. But.... Some managers are good with both the carrot and the stick; the X's and O's as well as personnel management. Those are the ones that last the longest, because they can adapt to changing circumstances. Others (like Rocco) are not well-rounded, but what they know happens to fit with what a team needs at a certain point, and they have some success. But they (like Rocco) DON'T adapt, and what worked once becomes toxic. The Twins are at that point right now, and need a more hands-on clubhouse/personnel manager. (My ratings below for the (n)ones of you who want that.) 1. Tom Kelly. Perfect Manager for the Twins; give him crap, and he deals with it, give him talent, and he was good enough to win it all. High points: franchise record for manager wins, 2 titles. Low point: totally missing the boat on David Ortiz. 2. Sam Mele. Only other Twins manager (in MN era) to reach the Series, and he did it when there were no AL playoffs to make good a less-good regular season. 3. Ron Gardenhire. 2nd most wins, long steady run, had to deal with a LOT of poor talent. Strong in the clubhouse, kept the team on an even keel (great in the regular season) but the team always seemed to lack a higher gear for the playoffs. 4. Paul Molitor. Won a Manager of the Year getting more out the Twins than the talent suggested. Something rarely said about the current manager. No way to know, but I suspect he would have gotten more out of the past 5-6 rosters than Rocco got. 5. Rocco Baldelli. Self empowering, even keeled, analytical (sort of). Also a void in the clubhouse; his best teams had Nelson Cruz and Carlos Correa doing that part of his job for him. I believe he has lost this team, and his (and this team's) best future involves Rocco moving elsewhere. 6. Bill Rigney. Actually don’t remember much about him except he had a temper, and his teams were pretty good. 7. Billy Martin. The anti-Gardenhire, Martin ran in too high a gear to last, but it was a fun year! 8-13. Ermer, Mauch, Goryl, Gardner, Quilici, Miller. Guys who had the job, did okay to meh, and don’t really stand out to me (except Mauch who seemed sharp, but bored).

Naylor is interesting as 1B is a void right now. I love Arraez, but I think Martin and Keaschall take a lot of OBP pressure off this lineup, and they both have better speed. Don't think Julien is on this team next year, let alone in a planned starting lineup. (Frankly, I'd be talking to Larnach or Wallner about a move to 1B if you can't trade them as the team is likely counting on Emma and Jenkins moving into OF spots next year.) But mostly, I hope the team holds on to Ryan/Lopez (they can certainly afford them now, and would get more trading at the deadline if '26 goes sideways), and scores gold on a couple RPs floating in the offseason. It's boring, but if they don't actually spend up to their limits in the offseason, then they actually could afford to make a couple moves if the new manager (my fondest offseason dream) injects some life into this team.

Lewis's quotes say more about the management of the team than himself. The Twins fired most of the coaching staff, and dumped nearly half the MLB roster. The Pohlads showed the fans a future with new owners, then took it away (which I don't really care about, but others do). It made sense to keep Rocco around if new owners were coming so they could hire their own guy, but if that change isn't coming, then somebody needs to go to signify (and more importantly implement) change. Rocco lost this team last year, the guy doing the clubhouse half of his job (Correa) is gone, and it is time to move on from his dry, boring, disconnected from the players routine. Maybe even hire someone who doesn't take 6 years to figure out players should take defensive drills together in Spring Training.

Trying to make judgement calls on a young player's defensive ability when they are new to MLB, being shifted around (SS, 3B, 2B), while constantly recovering from leg issues that hinder everything from range to footwork to your throwing foundation is a sketchy business. Lewis is a good athlete, healthy, and not surprisingly playing better with the focus on one position. I expect Lee's defensive numbers will go up the rest of this year as the Twins stop bouncing him around and letting him focus on one position (hopefully his batting improves, too). (One of my biggest Rocco gripes is the way he can't keep from trying to turn every young player into a Punto or Castro. Austin Martin in particular is someone who could use positional focus; OF IMO.)

I get it. Long drab offseason, ST injuries, slow start. Worse there is some history to show fears "are" justified. Except they are just that, fears. Fears over-extrapolating a slow start. Things to maybe note as well: After 6 games, the Twins were tied for first place. Only one SP has had a second chance to show his skill, and Lopez dominated in that show. Cleveland also had a (longer) rough start last year and won the division. I didn't see the second Saints game last night, but Festa, Matthews, and Morris all threw five shutout efficient innings to start the year. This team has issues, but it also has two platinum glove starters, two cheap pickups who look great (yeah, I was a Bader hater, but so far...), top young talent at AAA, and the depth to fix pitching woes if they occur. Breath deep, it's a long season.

Two of the most injury prone players on the Twins are Byron Buxton and Harrison Bader. We could all be laughing at this question in 4 weeks (though I sincerely hope we aren't). Martin has a TON to still prove at AAA, and the Twins seem to have FINALLY decided to put his focus on one area, which is great, because bouncing him around the IF/OF has been as productive as when they tried to turn him into Larnach (and wrecked his swing). The guy is one of the fastest players in the system, he has great plate discipline, he has shown flashes of brilliance defensively (along with the lapses), and as others pointed out, he has options. Plenty of time left on this clock.

I think the rotation will be very strong, and the lineup will be better than last year's (which still finished 10th overall in MLB if I remember correctly). (Santana was great defensively at 1B, but his O was average for 1B overall, and included some awful stretches). I'm thinking mid-90s for wins and a division title. I like your award picks, but my first two would be... MVP: Correa (because with Lee out there really isn't a backup plan; Carlos HAS to be healthy for most of the year for the team to thrive, while there are backup plans for Buxton). Best Pitcher: Lopez (because I'm counting on the rotation to be like a couple years ago, and once you put a dominant starter, or two, or three out there, it is tough to take any bullpen arm over them).

This is business, and that makes it complicated with most of the variables out of our view. Is this being driven by troubles in the Pohlad portfolio? Is the debt just on the MLB side or is it from other businesses? Or a combo platter? It is baseball, and that makes the business part even trickier. This is a sport with an aging/waning fanbase and general interest. Ratings are down, TV revenue is down (big time for most teams), two MLB clubs will play in minor league parks this year (one because they burned their home bridges before they had anywhere to go; the other because their dump got trashed by a hurricane that also wrecked their chances of getting a better ballpark, so... back to a fixed up dump next year), and the league is in a major Haves/Have-nots era (where the Ishbias clearly thought the Chicago market size meant more future than the MLB-worst roster). It is a potential sale, and that means ALL information coming out the different camps is probably self-serving (I never really believed in the 'several interested buyers' leaks, which were probably meant to keep the Ishbias' interest and price up; I doubt they believed it either). It is a family business, and as someone once involved in a small one, that gets super complicated, super fast. While I'm sure Joe would like to stay (and his camp is probably leaking that), it is very possible the rest of the not-interested-in-baseball part of the family will drive the sale as possibly the only major cashable asset, and if the price is fine whether or not Joe stays won't be a factor.