PatPfund

Non-tender him, and I'll wish him well at his next stop (where I suspect he'll be making a quarter of the suggested arbitration figure).

Non-tender and wait. The Twins have wasted too much money trying to lock up mediocre arms early (like Tonkin last year). There have been decent pitchers at really good value right before training camp the past few years, so there is no need to rush on fungible bullpen arms.

I'd expect payroll in the $100-110 million range. I wouldn't offer arbitration to Larnach (replaceable), or Ober (not a viable starter unless the lost velocity comes back in full). I'd trend towards 'no' on Clemens as well (why lock down even $1.2 million on a marginal player likely available just before camp if you even still want him). I'd buy Wallner a 1B glove, and strongly suggest he go to some baseball specialist to learn how to hit upper range fastballs (unless he wants to sell appliances at Sears). If you keep Lopez and Ryan, and fill out the rest of the rotation with young arms, you'd still have a couple pieces you might be able to crank up for high leverage 'pen innings (like Prielipp). Spend some FA money on a couple solid RP arms, and you'd have a team that could easily compete in this division if the young players click. If not, they get needed experience, and you can always deal an SP or two at the trade deadline and get far more than trading them in the offseason. Not spending big in the offseason also can leave enough budget to add a piece if things DO click, and if you aren't fishing for a starting pitcher you are more likely to find an affordable piece.

Rocco WAS a major part of the problem, and deserved to be fired. His teams were consistently mediocre/bad on defense for a manager who didn't believe in team defensive drills. His 'do your own thing' methodology was good for vets with established routines, but often left younger players like Lewis and Martin struggling. And "at the end of the day" his teams had three of the worst September collapses in team history over the past 4 years. FYI, comparing win percentages with Kelly and Gardenhire is ridiculous; Rocco's Twins had more financial resources thrown at them than in any other manager's term. There are indeed multiple ways to inspire a team, but given decent players Kelly won two World Series, while Rocco managed three total playoff wins in 7 years. Leadership in his successful years came from Nelson Cruz and Carlos Correa, not the manager's office. This was a needed step one in rebuilding a competitive team.

Clemens had some nice moments in a grim year, and I might not mind him as a bench player, but his OPS+ was 96, and that is not what you want to roll out at an O-heavy position like 1B. I'd rather see someone like Wallner or Gabriel Gonzalez get full tryouts in ST. Martin is the poster child for Rocco mis-management; this version showed flashes of being here two year ago, but sporadic playing time, and being moved all over the field defensively buried him. Ryan Fitzgerald actually showed me a lot in his time. OPS+ of 106, good baserunner, and a solid defender at SS and 2B might make for a better bench piece than Clemens, and at least worth an extended look in ST.

This is a pretty whiny article written in the frustration of team-sellus-interruptus. I am no fan of the Pohlads, but... Who has provided their AL Central team with the most financial resources of the past few years? The Pohlads. The front office has had a bunch of hit and miss, but guess what? Almost everybody's does. One the OP missed in its bitterness was getting Austin Martin (not our draft pick, FYI) and SWR for Berríos; not popular at the time but Martin was the highlight of the second half (after Rocco both played him and stopped trying to turn him into another Castro), and SWR was almost a full game up on Berríos this year (while being a half dozen years younger). A big miss? Manuel Margot, but I'm pretty sure it was Rocco sending him up to pinch hit so many times he set the MLB record for pinch futility. Good managers can make a huge difference in how teams play, and changing managers now is the proper first move.

I reject this is an unattractive position; if a candidate is told Lopez and Ryan are starting the year here (which fits the budget), anyone worth hiring should be able to compete for a division title given our division. Given this team's malaise, and the likely need to fire people up, a long-time Rocco staffer like Conger won't likely move the dial on the "change" needed to sell tickets. But... I mostly want somebody who will drill some defensive skill into this team, and provide leadership (both supportive and tough) to get them to actually play like a team instead of a bag of spare parts. Then you can have clubhouse leaders support the manager instead of having to do the hard part of the job as Cruz and Correa had to.

Short answer, no. There is no reason to trade Ryan or Lopez in the offseason; if the Twins want to sell tickets next year (and you do most of that in the offseason), they need to keep their SPs at the core of a cheaper team, fire the manager and bring in someone who knows how to work with young players drill the team better in fundamentals (like defense played as a team not individuals). Right there is your quick road to recovery that doesn't cost a lot, and puts emphasis on where the team is strongest; starting pitching and young/cheap top prospects. If it doesn't work out, you can always shop Lopez and Ryan at the trade deadline AFTER they've helped you sell tickets, and WHEN you can get the most for them. The Red Sox didn't just offer a lot for Ryan (maybe) at the deadline because he was hot, it was overpay because that's what teams do at the trade deadline, overpay for a dream to save their season. That won't happen over the winter when there is plenty of time to consider downsides.

I'd put Rocco 5th of the 13 MN era managers. But.... Some managers are good with both the carrot and the stick; the X's and O's as well as personnel management. Those are the ones that last the longest, because they can adapt to changing circumstances. Others (like Rocco) are not well-rounded, but what they know happens to fit with what a team needs at a certain point, and they have some success. But they (like Rocco) DON'T adapt, and what worked once becomes toxic. The Twins are at that point right now, and need a more hands-on clubhouse/personnel manager. (My ratings below for the (n)ones of you who want that.) 1. Tom Kelly. Perfect Manager for the Twins; give him crap, and he deals with it, give him talent, and he was good enough to win it all. High points: franchise record for manager wins, 2 titles. Low point: totally missing the boat on David Ortiz. 2. Sam Mele. Only other Twins manager (in MN era) to reach the Series, and he did it when there were no AL playoffs to make good a less-good regular season. 3. Ron Gardenhire. 2nd most wins, long steady run, had to deal with a LOT of poor talent. Strong in the clubhouse, kept the team on an even keel (great in the regular season) but the team always seemed to lack a higher gear for the playoffs. 4. Paul Molitor. Won a Manager of the Year getting more out the Twins than the talent suggested. Something rarely said about the current manager. No way to know, but I suspect he would have gotten more out of the past 5-6 rosters than Rocco got. 5. Rocco Baldelli. Self empowering, even keeled, analytical (sort of). Also a void in the clubhouse; his best teams had Nelson Cruz and Carlos Correa doing that part of his job for him. I believe he has lost this team, and his (and this team's) best future involves Rocco moving elsewhere. 6. Bill Rigney. Actually don’t remember much about him except he had a temper, and his teams were pretty good. 7. Billy Martin. The anti-Gardenhire, Martin ran in too high a gear to last, but it was a fun year! 8-13. Ermer, Mauch, Goryl, Gardner, Quilici, Miller. Guys who had the job, did okay to meh, and don’t really stand out to me (except Mauch who seemed sharp, but bored).

Naylor is interesting as 1B is a void right now. I love Arraez, but I think Martin and Keaschall take a lot of OBP pressure off this lineup, and they both have better speed. Don't think Julien is on this team next year, let alone in a planned starting lineup. (Frankly, I'd be talking to Larnach or Wallner about a move to 1B if you can't trade them as the team is likely counting on Emma and Jenkins moving into OF spots next year.) But mostly, I hope the team holds on to Ryan/Lopez (they can certainly afford them now, and would get more trading at the deadline if '26 goes sideways), and scores gold on a couple RPs floating in the offseason. It's boring, but if they don't actually spend up to their limits in the offseason, then they actually could afford to make a couple moves if the new manager (my fondest offseason dream) injects some life into this team.

Lewis's quotes say more about the management of the team than himself. The Twins fired most of the coaching staff, and dumped nearly half the MLB roster. The Pohlads showed the fans a future with new owners, then took it away (which I don't really care about, but others do). It made sense to keep Rocco around if new owners were coming so they could hire their own guy, but if that change isn't coming, then somebody needs to go to signify (and more importantly implement) change. Rocco lost this team last year, the guy doing the clubhouse half of his job (Correa) is gone, and it is time to move on from his dry, boring, disconnected from the players routine. Maybe even hire someone who doesn't take 6 years to figure out players should take defensive drills together in Spring Training.

Trying to make judgement calls on a young player's defensive ability when they are new to MLB, being shifted around (SS, 3B, 2B), while constantly recovering from leg issues that hinder everything from range to footwork to your throwing foundation is a sketchy business. Lewis is a good athlete, healthy, and not surprisingly playing better with the focus on one position. I expect Lee's defensive numbers will go up the rest of this year as the Twins stop bouncing him around and letting him focus on one position (hopefully his batting improves, too). (One of my biggest Rocco gripes is the way he can't keep from trying to turn every young player into a Punto or Castro. Austin Martin in particular is someone who could use positional focus; OF IMO.)

I get it. Long drab offseason, ST injuries, slow start. Worse there is some history to show fears "are" justified. Except they are just that, fears. Fears over-extrapolating a slow start. Things to maybe note as well: After 6 games, the Twins were tied for first place. Only one SP has had a second chance to show his skill, and Lopez dominated in that show. Cleveland also had a (longer) rough start last year and won the division. I didn't see the second Saints game last night, but Festa, Matthews, and Morris all threw five shutout efficient innings to start the year. This team has issues, but it also has two platinum glove starters, two cheap pickups who look great (yeah, I was a Bader hater, but so far...), top young talent at AAA, and the depth to fix pitching woes if they occur. Breath deep, it's a long season.

Two of the most injury prone players on the Twins are Byron Buxton and Harrison Bader. We could all be laughing at this question in 4 weeks (though I sincerely hope we aren't). Martin has a TON to still prove at AAA, and the Twins seem to have FINALLY decided to put his focus on one area, which is great, because bouncing him around the IF/OF has been as productive as when they tried to turn him into Larnach (and wrecked his swing). The guy is one of the fastest players in the system, he has great plate discipline, he has shown flashes of brilliance defensively (along with the lapses), and as others pointed out, he has options. Plenty of time left on this clock.

I think the rotation will be very strong, and the lineup will be better than last year's (which still finished 10th overall in MLB if I remember correctly). (Santana was great defensively at 1B, but his O was average for 1B overall, and included some awful stretches). I'm thinking mid-90s for wins and a division title. I like your award picks, but my first two would be... MVP: Correa (because with Lee out there really isn't a backup plan; Carlos HAS to be healthy for most of the year for the team to thrive, while there are backup plans for Buxton). Best Pitcher: Lopez (because I'm counting on the rotation to be like a couple years ago, and once you put a dominant starter, or two, or three out there, it is tough to take any bullpen arm over them).

This is business, and that makes it complicated with most of the variables out of our view. Is this being driven by troubles in the Pohlad portfolio? Is the debt just on the MLB side or is it from other businesses? Or a combo platter? It is baseball, and that makes the business part even trickier. This is a sport with an aging/waning fanbase and general interest. Ratings are down, TV revenue is down (big time for most teams), two MLB clubs will play in minor league parks this year (one because they burned their home bridges before they had anywhere to go; the other because their dump got trashed by a hurricane that also wrecked their chances of getting a better ballpark, so... back to a fixed up dump next year), and the league is in a major Haves/Have-nots era (where the Ishbias clearly thought the Chicago market size meant more future than the MLB-worst roster). It is a potential sale, and that means ALL information coming out the different camps is probably self-serving (I never really believed in the 'several interested buyers' leaks, which were probably meant to keep the Ishbias' interest and price up; I doubt they believed it either). It is a family business, and as someone once involved in a small one, that gets super complicated, super fast. While I'm sure Joe would like to stay (and his camp is probably leaking that), it is very possible the rest of the not-interested-in-baseball part of the family will drive the sale as possibly the only major cashable asset, and if the price is fine whether or not Joe stays won't be a factor.

Yes, yes, yes to ABS! I kind of like the challenge system (last year the Saints used full-system on Tues-Thurs games and challenge Fri-Sun). It keeps a human/strategical element in the system, and from watching lots of MiLB the past few years and MLB this spring, it trains the umpires to be better by holding them to an accountability totally missing currently. Few will get that fired up someone missed a call by .25 inches, but those making terrible calls (balls missing the zone by a couple ball diameters, or pitches 100% in the zone) are going to clean it up just to avoid the public shaming.

Injury update: the NESN crew later reported a laceration on Gasper (so he got spiked rather than sprained), which should mean stitches and maybe no IL. Brutal play on his part, though (he essentially ran into the SS on a play that was clearly not Gasper's). It cracks me up so many people claim Martin’s “natural” position is 2B. According to baseball-reference he appeared there in only 13 games during his three year career at Vanderbilt (where he mostly played 3B and OF). In his first 2 seasons of pro ball (including AZ Fall Lg), he played 7 games at 2B (mostly played SS, 105 games; and OF 55 games). 2023 is the first (and only) year he ever played the most games at 2B (39 to 26 OF). As for fit, well… I guess if you think his best D is on the IF, you clearly didn’t see him in Wichita or St Paul where the infield experiments were happening. A rare time I agree with Rocco; stop messing the guy up, and put him in his real natural spot (the OF starting in St Paul) so he can fully develop his potential. The team will likely need the RH OF bat this year (remembering that Bader is as fragile as Buxton). Or at the very least, a maximized trade chip.

Let's hope it is just a minor tweak, because things could get ugly fast. Julien looks better at the plate (with the usual ST caveats) but he mentioned putting focus on hitting rather than D, and he looks as butchery as I've ever seen him in the field. It really might be worth the Twins' while to get Eeles some exposure to good pitching in the next week or so, because utility IF depth suddenly seems a bit more urgent than last week.

With all due respect to the author (and I do have that respect), this is just goofy overthinking. Lewis is a freakin' unicorn hitter, and it's time to plan around him because of a pulled hammy and a slump? Seriously? Some questions popped up while reading this like... How is Lewis just potential when he as already led us to a playoff series win? How many of those has Buxton led us to? (Oh wait, that would be zero.) How has Lewis had a "long" history of bad play at 3B when he doesn't have a "long" history at any position in MLB (and he was mostly a SS in the minors)? And side note question, wasn't Paparesta supposed to be some sort of expert at preventing soft tissue injuries? Anyone concerned that a prime fill-in mentioned is Brooks Lee who is battling another back incident? Or that Emma is hurt again? Or that Jenkins is hurt? If the Brewers had listened to talk like this, they probably would have dumped that bum Molitor. Look, I get the frustration, but any plans of post-season success almost certainly involve Lewis, If your goal is to scrape out a wild-card spot and first round exit, then plan around him.

I like the potential, and Tonkin's injury in particular opens a spot for Castellano, but the kid is trying out for the team, and most of his outings have shortened his leash for sticking with the team. (I agree with the team's philosophy of having him face better opposition, because that's what he'd see after ST, and the team needs to know now.) The next week may bring a bit more clarity (in either direction), but if I had to make the call now, I'd preserve the potential asset by bringing Castellano north. On a very short leash, probably triggered by a terrible outing, early need, Tonkin's return (with his guaranteed contract), etc. It was never much of a lock that a competitive team would be able to hold a Rule 5 pick long enough to keep him, so when/if he can't cut it, or they need the flexibility, drop him unless a decent deal can be made. This 'pen is really short on flexibility anyway (the pitchers with the options are among the best we have), which is likely to lead to Tonkin being DFA'd at some point as well. (Travis Adams is another possible St Paul Shuttle guy.) Though who knows, maybe the kid surprises us, and unlocks something in the coming days and weeks! (The unexpected result is why we watch the games.)

All offseason, I thought the biggest need this team had was a healthy veteran arm to soak up quality innings, and prevent last year's mess of running-on-fumes untested arms (plus the unavoidable regression by some of them). Morris and Zebby have eased that a bit this spring (both have looked good against good players), but Festa is a reminder (even if this is a spring mirage) that development in rarely done in a straight line. I like where we are starting, but expect we'll see at least 2 St Paul Saints starting for the Twins by May 1st. That scares me a bit less than a couple months ago.

France's hot spring won't replicate to the regular season (whoever posts a 1.5+ regular season is a baseball deity). But it clearly shows a healthy body, and a talented player competing as if his career is on the line, and those factors can translate well beyond ST. The mention of defense is okay, but overwrought here. There aren't ANY Twin 1B candidates that are going to make you forget Santana's defense, and that's fine. 1B is as low on the defensive spectrum as it gets (outside of DH); this is an offense-first position and on that front Santana was barely passable (after a horrific start). 109 OPS+ may be "above league average" but it's mediocre for 1B; there is tons of room to get better, and potentially the players to do that. Plus, after years of management that considered mandatory team defense drills as a bad idea, the reverse is true this spring. We may see a general improvement (though no 1B Gold Glove). I also think over-comparing France to Margot and Gallo is a mistake. The previous two represented fairly serious monetary commitments, while France is on a one-year non-guaranteed contract barely above the minimum. If he turns horrible, he would be even easier/cheaper to drop than Jay Jackson was last year, and the Twins will do it (a potential new owner means the FO and manager are auditioning to keep their jobs). Though I don't expect France to turn horrible; I think he'll be here through the season or traded at the deadline.

If they are both hitting, I'm shipping out Eddie to play everyday and get his defense back to at least late-'23 form. (It was nice to see him look less butcher-ish yesterday.)

I'd love to see the break-through happen, but it almost feels like it would have to be after he hangs it up, marries, has a kid, becomes a science teacher, coaches his team to a regional title, then goes to a tryout day. Though he probably does it for Tampa not the Twins. (Dennis Quaid's kid could play Canterino in the movie.)