LA Vikes Fan

I'd be pretty happy with these except for Buxton. I see him as a .250-.260 hitter, not the .228 they have for him. I actually agree with the projections for the 4 young guys - solid to good to very good (Lewis) but not outstanding. i do think Julien will hit better than .250 but not a lot better. I'd take his .370 projected OPS and .407 SLG every day of the week. I'd love to see Kepler and Kirilloff meet their projections. Both might be a little high. The one that I think is unfortunately the most accurate and a little scary is Santana. .229/.324/.416 (.740) is just not good enough for your regular 1B. I really wonder about him and I hope that Rocco doesn't just stick with him if he doesn't hit instead of giving Kirilloff the experience there or moving Julien over and bringing Lee up if neither one of them hits. I'll take the starters as projected. Would love to see all 5 with sub 4.00 ERAs but don't think we will. I agree that we will see at least 25-30 starts by someone other than the top 5 listed. We need to find veteran reinforcement. Clevinger, Keller, and Barria are still out there as far as I know . . . Also, Julio Teheran and Drew Pomeranz just become available through opt-outs. Let's get one of these guys, put him in AAA until May 15 and reassess then.

Actually, now that more time has passed this Cleavinger Idea might work. He isn't ready to break with the MLB club having missed spring training. Give him a 1 year MLB deal with an opt out on May 15. He spends 6 weeks in AAA building p and showing he's ready to go. The chances are at least 50/50 by May 15 we have at least one starter who need an IL stint or is ineffective. If not, he opts out and goes somewhere else. Same logic would apply to guys like Julio Teheran, Brad Keller, or even Johnny Cueto.

I hear you but I think the real choice is Clevinger in the rotation with Varland in St. Paul, or Varland in the rotation with a veteran AAAA guy like Odo or Brad Keller as the 1st line of depth in St. Paul. I like Varland in the rotation better, but I also like him better as the AAA depth. Tough call.

Ugly. Two questions for those of us who can't watch the games. Did Wallner actually look good at the plate or did he get a scratch hit? Am I wrong or is Duarte looking very good as a long man this spring? Maybe he's the guy who stays instead of Sands. And finally, I feel for Eddie and Vargas for having to play on that team to keep their careers going (less for Gallo). It's going to be a very long year for the Nats and those two guys are probably long gone before that team turns it around.

I get it and hadn't really considered Lee not being on the 40 man as a factor, which it clearly is. I suspect they would give Larnach first shot if there's a need in the OF. I personally think Lee is closer to be ready so I would go a different way but I do understand giving Larnach as much play as possible in his last option year. I'm actually thinking they'd like Laranch to show something and then trade him at the deadline as part of a package for pitching. Like I said, I've been driving the "pump the Brakes on Lee" train all off season. I'm more open to him because I think Lee has shown considerable improvement at the plate and I am concerned that we are over reliant on 4 very unproven bats in Lewis, Julien, Jeffers, and Wallner. I have great confidence in Lewis, some confidence in Julien and Jeffers, and Wallner scares me for the reasons I put in my earlier post. I have no confidence is Margot as a season long solution, some in Castro but not a lot (and why make him a LF when his best value is his versatility), and I don't see a lot in AAA to come up and play every day given Larnach's past struggles. I'm just looking for alternatives. Most years I wouldn't care because losing a few winnable games here and there doesn't matter if you're not a contender but this year we are in my view. I see Lee as the best alternative.

Agreed on Lee not going to the OF but the OF could still effect when he comes up to the Twins. Right now, Wallner isn't hitting. At all. Hopefully that changes quickly. IF it doesn't and IF Kirilloff is hitting (or if Margot or Kepler gets hurt), one obvious solution is to send Wallner down to AAA to work out his issues, move Kirilloff to LF or to the OF with Wallenr if it's an injury situation, move Julien to IB (where he apparently is getting work in ST), and bring up Lee to play 2B. That would actually be my preferred plan to deal with a corner OF issue over playing Margot or even Castro every day. No one is suggesting Brooks Lee play OF. I am suggesting, however, that he is the first one up whether the need is in the OF or the IF, because a hitting Kirilloff is the best OF solution in the short term.

Are you talking about Wallner, Kirilloff, or both? Wallner had a great 2023 overall but he hit .208 in August, .209 in July, rebounded in September (always a tough projection month given the number of ABs against bad teams' AAA pitching), and went 0-8 in the playoffs with 5 SOs. He's 2-35 in ST. That suggest he's seeing an adjustment from good pitching and hasn't been able to adjust back yet. I'm in favor of giving him 4-6 weeks to adjust but I wonder if he'll be ale to do so. Lots of guys go up and down their first couple of years. I think it's waaaaay to early to anoint Wallner as one of our best hitters. He's an intriguing guy who could be a quality MLB hitter but we won't know that until at least the end of this year and probably not until next year. I think there is at least a 50/50 chance that Wallner will need a MiLB stint this year to get back into a groove. This team can contend - we can't use a lot of MLB ABs on unestablished guys trying to find their groove. That's what AAA is for. Kirilloff is just an injury waiting to happen. I feel for the guy but shoulder and wrist issues are very troubling and just not good for long term success. I fully expect him to spend at least one or two 10 day IL stints this year. Add in his less than stellar glove work so far - maybe he'll improve, Julien has - and I think counting on him for the long term is very risky. My point is that Lee will be up sooner rather than later, and the most likely reason will be to replace Kirilloff or Wallner IMHO. I'm been king of the "pump the brakes" on him but his ST performance has shown me that he's closer to ready than I thought.

Wallner has had a very bad spring and has 2 options remaining. Lee has had a very good spring and has all his options. I think Lee goes down to AAA to start the season and Wallner gets a month or so to turn it around. Once we pass the date where calling up Lee loses a year of control, which I think is about May 15, Lee is back if Wallner isn't hitting or Kirilloff is hurt yet again. Lee moves to 2B, Julien to 1B with Santana, and either Kirilloff or Wallner mans LF with Castro while the other one is on the Il again (Kirilloff) or back in AAA working on his swing (Wallner). I'd say let's do that now based on ST results but you can't count on ST results to carry over and losing a year of control on Lee isn't worth it.

Agreed. Two years at $5-6m a year? Sign me up. Unfortunately, he won't take that. More likely to take 2 years at $8-10M a year. Tougher call with Varland ready to go this year. Probably better to bring in AAAA depth like Brad Keller.

I've read that Lorenzen wants a minimum 2 year deal and that's why he hasn't yet signed. I'm not sure I would sign him for multiple years. Plus, the Yankees and White Sox are already talking to him. My guess is that Varland is the #5 and the Twins sign a starter they can stash in AAA. Think Brad Keller, Jaime Barria, Eric Lauer, etc....

Well I guess we can close up this thread. DeSclafani going to Il and it looks like it may be a significant injury. Could be a TJ surgery on the horizon.

Clevinger's not what we need, but we do need a starter. I'd rather have someone we can stash in AAA as the 6th starter so Varland can be in the rotation from the get go. Too bad Jake Odorrizzi already got signed. There will be a spot for whoever we sign, if we do, at some point this year. Brad Keller maybe?

Really? I thought we got a solid back end reliever with a 2.61 ERA and 1.145 WHIP in 2023 and a borderline Top 100 prospect, along with an oft injured starting pitcher and an A ball flier, in return for one year of an oft injured bat first, poor fielding second baseman with a consistent 115 OPS+? Let's see, Topa's WAR last year - 1.6. Polanco's WAR last year - 2.0. Add in the top 100 prospect and it seems like a fair deal to me. Sure, Topa may be a one year wonder and Polanco may have a career renaissance at age 30 plus. Gonzalez is a top 100 prospect on some lists and not on others - BA: NR | MLB: 79 | ATH: 96 | BP: NR, and sure, he may be in the Show in 2 years or working at McDonalds. I love me some Jorge Polanco but I think you guys have to recognize that his career arc from here is likely down, not up, and that's assuming he's healthy enough to play more than 100 games. He's been a great Twin in the past. Not so likely in the future. He was expendable with the breakout year from Julien and the development of Lee. Why didn't we get a mid rotation established starter or a high upside young starter for Polanco? Because he isn't worth it at this stage of his career. I hope Jorge has a great season and makes the All Star team. Hell, I hope he plays 120 games. But let's not overrate who he is and what he's worth. And let's not use him to take pot shots at the front office for making a trade from surplus to get the necessary bullpen help and a real upside prospect.

Very helpful, thanks. I vote that DeSclafani goes on the 60 day IL, and uses the full 30 day ramp up period in St. Paul to be ready to pitch in Minnesota on about June 1. Varland in the rotation until then we'll see where we are on June 1. .

Louis Varland just went four innings, one hit, in his last spring training start. He has gone 11 innings in 4 appearances, 3 starts, and is given up a total of six hits and no runs. He's got 11 strikeouts, one walk, a spring training WHIP of 0.64, and an ERA of 0.00. I know spring training statistics are not necessarily predictive but you do have to ask yourself what a guy has to do to make the team. His primary competition, Anthony DeSclafani, has yet to pitch an inning in spring training. He is allegedly "ramping up" his bullpens but that's as far as he's gotten given what I think was shoulder pain (may have been elbow or forearm) at the beginning of spring training. You have to think that Varland has won a spot in the starting rotation with his performance. Prediction: DeSclafani opens up the season on the Injured List. Varland opens up the season as the fifth starter and the Twins have all five starters pitching. There are no skipped starts due to off days. DeSclafani comes off the IL in 10 days, and then goes to AAA for the full 20 day rehab period to build up innings. At that point, there is a decision to be made but past history tells us that someone will be ineffective or need an IL stint to give DeSclafani a spot. It may be a bullpen spot if all of the starters are pitching well but I suspect there will be a spot. What do you guys think? Question: Given DeSclafani's issues in spring training, he me need a longer Il stint than 10 days but probably doesn't need the full 60 days. Is there another option? Alternatively, if the only choices are a 10 day or 60 day IL designation, if we put him on the 60 day list can he come back sooner and pitch in the minors? In other words, could he be put on the 60 day list and thus off the 40 man roster, but come back to AAA in say 30 days and spend a month building back up? I know a lot of you guys know the rules really well so I'm curious because that seems to me to be the smart move. He's then ready around June 1 and by then we will be in need of another starter if for no other reason than Paddack will need a break. More likely, one of the top five will either be hurt or ineffective. Anybody know the answer?

Good question. I don't know. I'll start a thread so we can discuss since this one is for the Spring Breakout Game.

You're right. DeSclafini opens the year on the 10 day IL, then takes the full 20 day rehab period in AAA to work up his inning load. Varland is the 5th starter out of the gate and if he pitches well, an interesting decision awaits. Frankly, an injury or ineffectiveness probably makes the decision but this could be fun to watch.

I agree, and I think his window could close fast. There is a lot of internal competition and external solutions are not hard to find for a 1B/DH with a poor glove. Miranda looked like a solid MLB hitter in 2022, and has looked healthy and is hitting in ST. He isn't a great 1B but frankly probably as good or better than Kirilloff. Larnach is in a make or break situation and could transition to IB. Brooks Lee could force the issue this year by tearing up AAA and if Kirilloff isn't hitting or is hurt again, you could easily see Lee coming up to play 2B and Julien moving over to 1B. Stevenson and Severino look like guys who should get a MLB shot soon. I think Kirilloff' s biggest worry should be Miranda and Lee. I think Miranda is the hitter we saw in 2022 and Lee is less than a full season away from being ready. Kirilloff doesn't have the glove to hold either Miranda or Julien off at 1B on the defensive side so he has to hold them off at the plate. Another injury and he could be Wally Pipped by either Miranda or Lee (with Julien moving to 1B). Unfortunately, I don't think Kirilloff is worth much more in trade than a B/B+ prospect with his injury history so that route doesn't make a lot of sense right now. I hope he comes out firing.

Because Polanco isn't worth a quality starter unless you include high end prospects like Lee, JRod, Festa, or guys like that. Same for Kepler. Aging guys who can hit well and field some (Polanco) or field well and hit some (Kepler) aren't worth a #2, #3, or even a young #4 starter. They're worth what we got - a quality reliever, an older back-end starter and prospects. The Twins weren't willing to trade their good young prospects so they couldn't trade for a good young starter. We'll see if that changes at the trade deadline.

Agreed. It all depends on Kirilloff's defense. He presently is a decent, not good or great, decent, bat for a 1B. He is not good defensively. Defense matters for a team with deep playoff run aspirations. His error against the Astros in Game 2 was very significant for the outcome of that series. He either needs to improve defensively so his current bat plays or he needs to hit at more of an .850 plus OPS clip to carry his glove as a part time 1B, part time DH. Improvement in both is really what he needs to do to become an everyday player. I sympathize with his injury history. Having said that, he's 26, not 23-24. He breaks through this year he's a part of the core. If he doesn't and Lee does, he's out of a position, probably not part of the core going forward, and becomes trade bait. the sports (and business) worlds can be cruel. I hope he really breaks out and he can be part of the next 5 Twins teams. I think he has this year to show that and it's not starting out well in ST on the glove side. If he doesn't get off to a good start soon, it wouldn't surprise me if he got traded to a non-playoff team or to one hurting for offense (think Miami) as part of a package for pitching.

I think the impact of the younger guys getting experience shouldn't be understated. Both Julien and Wallner had high SO rates last year. One would expect those rates to go down with experience. Wallner needs to make some adjustments since he was SO prone at the end of the year. Juline needs to learn where the MLB strike zone is bigger than the robot zone at AAA and he'll take fewer called strikes. I would expect both of them to shave 2-5% off of their SO ratees, possibly the same for Lewis and Kirilloff. That alone when added to the replacement of Taylor and Gallo with Santana and Margot should really help.

I don't agree with USAFChief on this one. I think the plan was to trade Polanco for a starter but they couldn't get a good one since Polanco is older and has an injury history. They pivoted to getting a reliever - Topa - and a good prospect with risk and upside in Gonzalez. I think Seattle also was looking to move DeSclafani's salary and the Twins were looking to add starter depth so the moved him to MN and threw in Bowen so the Twins would pay some of his salary.. To me, that's a salary dump that happened to fit the Twins' need for SP depth. The Twins wanted to trade Polanco for a young starter with upside but couldn't so they settled for a high upside prospect, a (sort of) established late inning reliever, and a lottery pick. Getting a possible back end starter was a nice add on but not critical to the trade.

Agreed. The trade was really Polanco for Topa and Gonzalez with DeSclafani thrown in essentially for almost free with others paying 2/3 of his salary. Bowen was the classic even it out lottery ticket guy. DeSclafani is gone after 2024 unless he reverts to 2021 form (and then he's likely someone else's FA pickup). The elbow injury sounds ominous but let's not pretend that he was a key part of the Polanco trade. I hate to see anyone get hurt but I wouldn't be unhappy at all if Varland got some real run in the rotation out of the gate. On another note, with the DeSclafani elbow issue and Varland's possible ascension, do we need another veteran "break glass in case of emergency" type starter to stash in AAA? I think we might. I'm not thrilled by SWR or Dobnack as the next guy in line in case of injury. How about Jake Odorizzi? I don't know, but I would think he's take a minor league deal with an opt out. Or maybe Michael Lorenzen on a one year deal if he'd take it with Varland back at AAA? I'd really think about Lorenzen. I know he's been injured but I would be interested to see if Odorizzi has anything left.

I agree. I also think it's very important for the Twins to make sure that Kirilloff gets 450-500 ABs this year and at least 75 games at 1B. This is the most unsettled position we have other than the #2 starter. Santana is at most a 1 year stop gap. We need to find out this year, not next year this year, whether we can whether we have a long term 1B in AK, or whether we need to work on Miranda or get a FA to cover the position going forward. We look pretty set most everywhere else to have a contending team for the next 5 years or so. We need to set this spot with who we have or get someone else for next season and beyond. We need to figure out by July if the right side of the IF is AK and Julien. If it's not, we need to pivot to Julien and Lee, Miranda and Julien, or some other combination that we can trot out there from 2025-28 (after which we lose control over Lewis, Ryan, and Ober). We're close. Let's finish the building job. 500 plus ABs this year for AK, Julien, Wallner, and Lewis and 400 plus for Jeffers, unless they completely bomb. 25-30 starts for Ryan and Ober. 20 plus starts for Varland and Paddack. 200-250 ABs for Martin, same for Miranda if we can find a spot. Find out if Larnach can hit MLB pitching or find a way to keep Kepler around for 2-3 more years. Get in the playoffs and win at least a series or two. Figure out who of this group is in your core going forward with Correa, Lopez, and Buxton, augment as necessary over the winter, and compete for a title in 2025 if we can't get there this year. Get to the ALDS or better this year if you can but be sure to be in a position to have a real shot at getting to the ALCS or better in 2025-2028 by establishing your core.

I think this is the best analysis despite all of the hysteria. I understand the issue of blocking prospects like Varland (good example, he may really be MLB ready), and Martin (hasn't shown yet but may be MLB ready by mid-season, I think needs more time in AAA). Yet I think the Twins are contenders and that's why a guy like Margot makes a lot more sense than Martin. With respect to the prospects, I think we have to recognize where the Twins are as a team. We supposedly are division favorites and I think contenders to go deep in the playoffs. Manuel Margot fits well as a 4th OF on that team. If, on the other hand your view is that the Twins might win the division since its fairly weak but are really a pretender in the playoffs, then Margot makes a lot less sense; it would make more sense to give those ABs to a guy that you wanted ready to go when we are really ready to contend like Martin. So, pick your contention window. If it's open this year, Margot is the right choice. If that window doesn't open until 2025 or 2026, play Martin. BTW, the thing that should tip the balance on the trade is the prospect swap. Doncon looks as good or better than Miller, but who knows? I think we do know that its at least a close call.