LA Vikes Fan

Kepler is worth more to the Twins than Polanco since we have replacements for 2B in Julien and Lee but not really for RF unless we move Wallner to RF and go with someone from the group of Larnach, Castro, Gordon, Keirsey, Prato, Kirilloff (with Julien playing 1B). Two trade thoughts - (1) Kepler is worth Emerson Hancock PLUS an established late inning reliever like Topa or Speier from Seattle with the Twins throwing in a lower level prospect to even things out. or (2) alternatively, Kepler PLUS Festa AND Tanner Schobel should get you Miller or Woo. I would do either trade with a preference for #2.

Kirby and Gilbert aren't realistic targets unless we are willing to give up BOTH Julien and Lee PLUS Polanco or Kepler. Not happening. Established starting pitching costs more than anyone thinks. The realistic targets are Woo and Miller because they are less established, thus less predictable in outcome. I like them both. Polaco and Wallner for either Woo or Miller plus a throw in decent reliever like Ty Adcock or Darren McCaughan is a good deal for both teams. Even better if we get Justin Topa. I just don't think that Seattle has an interest in Wallner with his strikeout rates. Maybe Julien and Kepler for Woo, Topa, and Adcock? Slight overpay by the Twins but you generally overpay for starting pitching. Topa is a solid to very good late inning reliever and Adcock is a solid middle inning guy and only 25. Would take Miller instead of Woo and also trade Polanco instead of Kepler. Hate to trade Julien but would for controllable young quality starting pitching, but ONLY for that. My proposal for a trade with the Mariners: Mariners get - Kepler (or Polanco), Julien Twins get - Woo (or Miller), Topa, and Adcock.

Agreed. The trade market has still not completely taken shape with Yamamoto just now having dinner with the Mets owner. Nothing will happen until he, Montgomery, and Snell sign, and may even have to wait until guys like Giolito and Stroman are off the market. If the Twins make a trade for a SP, and I think that's a pretty big IF, I don't expect anything until after January 15. I actually don't expect a trade for a #2 starting pitcher. I see the Twins signing Frankie Montas or Michael Lorenzen and rolling with what they have. I do think Polanco gets traded; I just think it's more likely to be for a solid BP piece plus a AA type guy with upside. Probably a pitcher but maybe a catcher. By the way, Happy Holidays to all of you guys. You make following the Twins more fun and more special from out here in SoCal. I'm grateful for that.

Kershaw isn't the answer. I live in LA and follow the Dodgers as my second team. He's a gamer but he'll only give you 100-120 innings a year and he's not be good in the playoffs. We're not going to pay the freight and much as I hate to say it, he isn't worth the cost at this stage of his career.

Agreed. Lee has the potential to be a solid to very good MLB player over time. The problem is that he hasn't conquered AAA yet so that time is probably in the future, not this year. His slash line in AAA last year was .237/.304/.428. He also hit under .200 in MLB Spring Training last year. I'd love to see him take a big step forward at AAA this year and force his way onto the 26 man roster in July. He might, but he might not take that step until 2025 or even later. Let's not make plans about trading and keeping players for 2024 on the assumption that Lee will be ready to be an everyday MLB player next year. The evidence doesn't support that result, at least not yet. All of which doesn't matter when trading Polanco. If we can get a good return, trade him and the infield is Kirilloff, Julien, Correa, and Lewis, with Farmer, Castro and Miranda in reserve. Works for me. Farmer can play every day if there's an injury or Julien turns out to be a flash in the pan. Lee would be gravy but let's not count on that for next year.

I'm sure they do if we're trying to get Kirby or Gilbert. Those two are probably unattainable for the Twins. Miller or Woo, on the other hand, have a much shorter track record and might be attainable. I think either would cost us Polanco, a pitching prospect and a hitting prospect. I'm thinking Polanco, plus Raya or Festa, plus Salas or someone like that. Alternatively, the Polanco and Wallner for Woo trade is interesting. Both are close to a match on BTV to the extent that matters. Bottom line, is that getting even Miller or Woo is going to be expensive in terms of players.

This is a response to you Cory and harmony 55. I agree that Seattle could be looking for less players/more quality then my suggestion. I just didn't want to include Brooks Lee, Julien, or even Miranda. I hadn't really thought about Wallner as a companion to Polanco for Woo. I think adding him in is a good idea to get Woo. I would want more than just Woo, though if we give up Wallner with Polanco. I would want them to add a veteran quality relief pitcher like Justin Topa or Gabe Speier, a young reliever like Ty Adcock or Prelander Berroa, or an OF with potential.

This take, also stated by others, is where I thinks the Twins should be - Move Polanco ONLY for a solid return that is based on starting pitching. We are lucky in that he is a rare commodity right now, an available established MLB middle infielder with a strong bat and a team friendly contract. That kind of player could be the centerpiece of a trade for that other rare commodity, young, controllable starting pitching with at least middle of the rotation upside. Polanco should have that type of real value but only to a team looking to contend in 2023 and 2024 that needs middle infield help. Polanco doesn't help a building team. That leaves us looking really only Seattle (fits all criteria), Miami (sort of fits all criteria), and maaaaybe Tampa ( doesn't really need IF help but does want to move Glasnow's salary). I don't see another team out there that's really a fit. Here's my deal parameters: Seattle gets - Polanco, their choice of one or more of Luke Keasall, Austin Martin, or Josh Winder, and their choice of Marco Raya, Charlee Soto, or Conner Prelipp. Seattle gets their 2B, plus either his replacement in 2 years and/or a reliever, plus a high upside young pitcher to eventually replace the guy they trade. Return is close but a little short for the return below so unless they take two in the second group Twins throw in a younger lottery pick with upside like Jose Salas, Danny De Andrade or Bryan Acuna. Twins get - Bryce Miller or Bryan Woo. Twins get a controllable starting pitcher with middle of the rotation upside. Depending on the 4th Twin going to Seattle, Mariners may need to throw in decent but not great reliever like Darren McCaughan or Ty Adcock (Justin Topa would be better but he's probably too good for this trade). Deal : Polanco, Keasall, Winder, and Raya for Bryan Woo.

Very interesting, I would love to get access to the financials to see what the investment would be to buy BSN. There's a real reward but real risk and it's my sense that ownership is somewhat risk averse so I don't think they would bite. I think this is a transition year for the Twins and a few other MLB teams. I think they partner with MLB to get access to facilities, tech, and content and get their ad money for now. I see this coming to a head where local/regional TV becomes an MLB owned and operated operation for all but the most high end teams like the Yankees, Mets, and Dodgers. Other similar option would be to aggregate and sell the rights to a Prime Video, Hulu or Netflix type streamer. In other words, aggregate the local TV for most teams like Bally did but run it better with more realistic payouts to teams and less debt on the operation. Gives you the greatest efficiency, some good cross-marketing opportunities, and would give MLB the chance to raise baseball's profile from a regional to a more national audience. Big upfront investment but biggest rewards.

Agreed. While I wish we were more active in the free agent market for starting pitching, I think any starting pitching add will come about by a trade. I hope we pull off a trade for someone like Miller or Woo from Seattle. Gilbert would be even better, but he is likely to cost us Brooks Lee or someone equivalent plus Polanco and another solid prospect. That price is a bit too high for me. I also se us picking up a lower end starter like Brad Keller or Jamie Barria or a reclamation project like Frankie Montas or Sean Manaea through FA. The key to next year's rotation will be health, Chris Paddack as a solid #3 starter or better, and well, health. We are not likely to have much experienced depth in the rotation and I don't see anyone in the Minors jumping up to become this year's Bailey Ober or Louie Varland. Hope I'm wrong about that.

Does anyone know anything about the 4 players the Twins took in the minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft?

Agreed. I think the dust needs to settle out a little on the FA starters before that deal can be made. The picture will be much clearer once Ohtani, Snell, Stroman, Rodriguez, and Yamamoto sign contracts, Those clubs left our will then pivot to the Twins likely targets in Seattle and Miami. I doubt that those two clubs will entertain a trade until that part of the market shakes out and they can create some competition. The Winter Meetings are key to laying out a baseline for what we want and are willing to give that will hopefully come to fruition in January/February.

The prospect necessary to go with Kepler and Polanco for Gilbert? Brooks Lee, Kepler and Polanco is almost a perfect match at baseball trade values. So is Kepler, Polanco, Emmanuel Rodriguez and either Wallner or Varland. In other words, Gilbert is worth 2 vets with good numbers on good contracts, plus either our #1 prospect (or #2 depending on how you value Walter Jenkins), OR a high upside OF in Rodriguez PLUS a potential starter in Varland or a high upside slugger in Wallner. In other words, a heck of a lot more than Kepler plus Polanco. Let's get dreams of Gilbert out of our heads. Not only would Seattle be crazy to trade him, he is waaaay too expensive in terms of talent necessary to acquire him. The realistic options are Bryan Woo or Bryce Miller. Those guys match up with a Polanco plus Rodriguez return, or even straight up for Eduard Julien with the Mariners throwing in a good but not great MLB reliever like Justin Topa.

That's not really a good way to use BTV. They give Vasquez a -10 because of his contract, not because of his value as a player. He has positive value as a player so Julien and Vasquez for Miller is a terrible deal unless you're desperate to move the contract that you attach a high upside young player to get someone to take on the money. Negative as we are about the payroll there's no indication that a salary dump is in the works.

This is right and applies to Polanco and Kepler as well as to Vasquez. In a perfect world we would keep all three AND get a #2/3 SP in FA -very unlikely given the prices - or through a trade - also unlikely since giving up one of the 3 is likely part of the trade price unless we want to give up multiple young options (not happening). We have replacements for all 3 guys, but all those replacements carry risk. We simply don't have enough information on the potential trade return to know if trading Vasquez is smart, dumb, or simply a calculated risk. Still, it's fun to speculate. I think all 3 of those guys plus everyone else on the roster not a SP or named Duran, Correa, Buxton or Lewis is out there being shopped right now. Frankly, they should be. This roster is good but has needs and some surplusage in the IF in particular. We aren't willing to pay the inflated SP prices except maybe for a Seth Lugo type so any improvement will have to come via a trade. And any trade will mean someone we'd rather keep will be gone. I think getting a solid young mid-rotation starter with upside is the #1 priority (think Bryce Miller, Bryan Woo, Edward Cabrerra, etc.). If that means trading Vasquez, Polanco , Kepler, or even Wallner, Julien or Kirilloff alone or as part of a package, we got to do it. Trading Polanco and Wallner almost gets you Woo or Miller and a reliever like Justin Topa (according to BTV). So does trading Kirilloff and Wallner, and maybe throwing in a Vasquez and paying half of his salary gets that over the top. Polanco and Kirilloff gets you Edward Cabrera. There are endless permutations. We have to be willing to do make this kind of a move if we want to upgrade the starting pitching. I don't think anyone should be untouchable other than Lewis, Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Correa, Lee, and Duran. The key unknown is what we can get back and it's starting pitching we want and need. Anyone else should be available to trade for that.

The markets might be comparable but the Cards have a lot more money due to better attendance and a better TV deal. The Cards drew over 3m to a 71 win team; the Twins less than 2m to a division winning team. Look back and you see the same thing over and over - the Cards regularly draw more than 3 million fans, the Twins are stuck around 2 million. A 1 million dollar gate difference at even $30 - $50 a ticket - seems low to me but I live in LA - that's the extra $30m to $50m in revenue for a $25m higher payroll if you spend most of it on players. Also, Cards are a long time regional franchise with a big following and have a better TV deal. Up to $25m more per year. Put that together and even assuming you only use 50% of the revenue difference from just attendance and TV revenue on player payroll you get a $25m-$40m payroll difference. Bottom line, Twins and Cards are NOT comparable revenue teams. I would say the Cards are a Tier 2 team (behind NY, LA, Bos. Atl) like Philly, the Cubs, the Angels, Houston or the Rangers. Twins are a Tier 3/4 team like Detroit, Seattle, Baltimore, or maybe the White Sox. Simply not the same.

I'd love to get Glasnow but I think it's a pipe dream that we would add a $25m pitcher with only one year of control. If we were willing to spend $25m on a pitcher we would offer it to Sonny Gray for 2-3 years and sign him. Just not happening. Still, I like the idea of trading with Tampa because I think we have the young hitting talent they need. Do they have any other SP talent that we could try to get? Maybe try to take CIvale and hope he bounces back? I didn't see much else on their roster.

Polanco plus Lee should get us Miller or Woo, but that's too high a price for me. Would Polanco plus Farmer get us Miller or Woo? Maybe if we add in an 15-30 prospect? Maybe a Corey Lewis, SWR type? That I would do.

Much as I value Polanco for his clutch hitting, I agree that he is the most expendable piece that is likely to find a return. Not by himself, but as part of a package with a prospect. I like the Gilbert trade even though I would really like to keep E-Rod. That's a good value for value swap. I also agree that Julien is the 2B of the future or at least until Lee shows he can dominate at AAA (he hasn't yet even shown he's a good AAA hitter), when he might come up and force a move to 2B for Lewis. I would be ok trading Julien and have Polanco stay at 2B with Lee in the background but only for a higher end starter with multiple years of control. I don't know that Julien will fetch that even in a package with someone like Mercedes or Winder. I would not trade away Raya or Festa as part of a package for anything less than an established top of the rotation starter with at least 2 years of control. You don't trade your top pitching prospects unless you have a surfeit of young pitching. We don't. Seattle is the best trade partner for us since they need a 2B (Polanco or Julien). I would explore Miller, Woo, and even Hancock as possibilities depending on the "plus" needed to go with a 2B to get them. The plus is only from the Twins on Woo and Miller, Seattle adds the plus if we get Hancock.

While I would love to see the Twins add Kirby or Gilbert, I think the prospect cost will be too prohibitive. It probably starts with Lee or Julien and requires quality add ons beyond that. I don't think Polanco plus even Julien or Lee gets you either one. We'd have to add a quality pitching prospect like Raya. Starting pitching is the most expensive bauble on the shelf and Seattle isn't go to sell theirs below market value. On the other hand, Polanco plus might get you in the running for Woo, Hancock or Miller, the level dependent upon the plus. Woo might be had for Polanco, Larnach, and an SWR or 11-20 prospect, Hancock for maybe just Polanco with the Mariners throwing in a 20-30 prospect of their own. Miller is going to cost us Polanco, Larnach, plus someone better like Festa or even Prilepp or Varland. Frankly, I would do all of those deals for the pitching we need except I wouldn't trade Varland. I think we're all focusing too much on finding a #2 to replace Gray. I think the Twins think they already have that replacement in Paddack. He's not as good yet and will have an innings limit this year but I think they're going to roll with him, Ryan and Ober in the 2-4 spots. I suspect what they really want is a prospect on the way up type to compete with Varland for the #5 spot with upside in a trade. I think the plan might be to trade Polanco for a guy like that, say Hancock, and then sign a veteran with upside but question marks like our old friend Kenta Maeda, Frankie Montas, Severino, Seth Lugo, or even Brad Keller. They can then use that vet in the #5 hole to start with Varland and the acquired prospect getting 10-15 starts apiece as an injury replacement in the hope one of them can establish himself as a mid-rotation guy going forward.

The only reasons to get rid of Gordon before ST is if there's a decent trade return on a trade he can be a part of or to save the $1m expected arb salary. I doubt if the trade exists unless he's part of a package and I have to think the hope that his 2022 performance was real is worth $1m contract. I say we keep him through ST, see if his performance reverts to 2022 and/or there's a need based upon an injury or trade of someone else. We can probably trade him at the end of ST to lose the contract and it shouldn't be a huge deal even if we have to DFA him then in the hope he goes to St. Paul.

Absolutely right and probably how it will and should go with Martin, Lee, Camargo, etc. IF it goes well. These guys come up, have trouble, go back, come up again, do better, etc. All of the players motioned will get opportunities during the first half of the year as injury replacements and none of them has so torn up AAA that staying there is a waste of time. I think counting on any of them as important reserves at the beginning of the season is very problematic and counting on them as starters is a fool's errand. That isn't to say we shouldn't trade Polanco or Kepler if a good deal for stating pitching comes along. We'd be taking a big chance given what we have behind them but it could be worth doing for the right starter. Having said that, trading those two for prospects or to open up a spot for a minor leaguer doesn't make a lot of sense to me IF the goal is to compete in 2024 and advance farther in the playoffs. These guys will get their chance in time. No need to force anything.

Glad someone raised what I thought I remembered. Julien was not a good hitter the last 2 months of the season. Could just be a rookie going through adjustments, could be that he isn't more than a .250/.350/.375 kind of hitter. He's improved at 2B, from pretty bad to right around average, unlikely ever to be a much better than average or slightly above average fielder. I hope I'm wrong on both counts but that may be who he is - a slightly above average 2B who's primary calling card is the ability to draw walks. Not a bad guy to have, but not a core guy at 2B. He also might regress to an offensive liability. Oh that's right, if Julien regresses, we got Brooks Lee. Well, Lee might be an all-star some day but let's pump the brakes a bit. We always see his overall MiLB stats but let's throw out AA and focus on AAA. He hit .237/.304/.429(.733) in AAA. That doesn't sound like a guy ready for the bigs in 2024. Not even close. This is what makes the Polanco decision tough. The alternatives are there but far from assured. If we can get mid rotation or higher starting pitching for him or with him leading a package, then great make the trade. In the more likely event that we can't, it's a big risk to move him for prospects or a back end innings eater starter.

I agree with you on Polanco but disagree on Julien. I think the FO sees him as the full time 2B next year if he continues to hit and continues to improve defensively. I think he is the expected longer term 2B at least until Lee actually hits at AAA. That hasn't happened yet. . Personally, I'd love to keep Polanco because he is a clutch hitter and a good teammate. I wish he could have the Farmer role people are talking about but his defensive decline makes that difficult to see. I would also think about giving him a 1B glove instead of looking for a free agent. Unfortunately, I think he's likely to be traded for pitching if there's a market.

There's really three questions. First, I think this is right. Kepler stays, Polanco goes if there is a good trade option for pitching prospects. Not because Kepler is better than Polanco but because we have a replacement for Polanco in Julien, with Martin and Lee waiting behind him. Keeping Kepler keeps Kirilloff at 1B where he belongs probably in a platoon type situation with Miranda. The $10m we save goes either towards a starter, reliever, or CF. I'd rather keep Polanco because I think he's one of the most clutch hitters on the team but trading him just makes too much logical sense if we can get a good return. Second is Farmer. Would love to keep him. Good leader, solid to excellent fielder, can play SS, relatively cheap at $5-6m a year. I would be surprised if he's non-tendered. Wrong poker move. You tender him, try to sign him for $4-5m with a promise not to trade him, if he says no you go to arb where he probably gets $6m, and then you decide what to do. By then, the landscape will be in much better focus. Not smart to just give him away for free with a non-tender. Yes, he is replaceable with Castro and Gordon, who are not as good, and Lewis, Castro or Lee can play SS if Correa gets hurt. The good news is that if he is made available Farmer is the best SS option out there for a needy team, by far. I think a package of Farmer plus a solid prospect (think Prato, Keirsey, or Martin, not Festa, Lee or Jenkins) might be the basis for a solid to strong MLB reliever or even a really good AA pitcher, plus a high upside A ball guy from another team. As with Polanco, I think it depends on whether there's a good trade out there for Farmer. Third, what do we do for starting pitching? I don't think we sign a FA starter to replace Gray who only stays if he takes the QO or something in that range over 2 years. I think that's unlikely. Let's not forget that the Twins may think they already have his replacement in Chris Paddack. I could see us using some of the money from trading Polanco and/or Farmer to sign a #4 starter or reclamation type. Think Seth Lugo, James Paxton, Frankie Montas - someone that will take 1 or 2 yrs at $10-14m a year. That may even be Kenta Maeda for a little less than that. If you trade Polanco and/or Farmer, that gives you $5-15m depending on the salaries of the guys you get back. You add that to the $10-15m in slack we have and you have enough for the back end or reclamation starter or a guy like Giolito on a 1 year prove it deal, a decent reliever, and for a Taylor or Kiermeir to play CF. IF you don't trade either, you roll with what you have by re-signing Taylor and maybe Maeda for the $10-15m you already have and Varland is the #5 or #6 starter. I like option 1 the best much I would like to keep Polanco and Farmer, but could live with option 2.