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  1. BTW, Baseball trade Values says Lane Thomas is worth Canterino, Woods-Richardson, Wallner, and Gallo. Gallo is a 0 so he's just a throw in to balance the roster; you can pretend he isn't there. Carlson is worth Wallner, either Woods-Richardson plus or Canterino or Raya, and Gallo. If you go from Wallner to Larnach you have to add another pitcher like Raya or Festa and maybe get a lottery ticket or expiring contract guy from the Cardinals. Not sure I'd make either deal, maybe the Carlson one. Wallner, Canterino and Gallo for Carlson? Also, the Cardinals want pitching. Canterino, Raya and Gallo for Carlson? Not so sure about either of those.... All this just shows me is that getting a quality RH OF is very expensive and probably not worth it. Also makes me wonder if trading Wallner when his value is so high is the right thing to do before the deadline. His value is higher now than it's ever been.
  2. I was/is one of Kepler's bigger critics but I agree for now. He has hit .267/.330/.522 over the last 30 games/90 ABs and probably saved his job for this season. I really doubt the Twins trade for a 3B with Lewis back in 2-3 weeks and Polanco back in a few days. They have to have some way of playing Polanco and Julien together. One of them at 3B is one of the short term options. Stewart should be back in a few weeks and Theilbar a little sooner. Maeda may wind up in the bullpen so Kuechel can come up and start by 7/31 or he'll opt out. With all that happening, I don't see them paying premium deadline prices for a reliever. I think the only realistic upgrade is to bring on a RH hitting OF and then, that player is probably a part time player absent injury. The likely (and perhaps only) way to get Polanco, Julien, Lewis and Kirilloff in the lineup is to either put Buxton on the bench, long term Il or in CF (all unlikely), or put one of those 4 in LF. I see the lineup when all are back around 8/10 is Lewis at 3B, Correa at SS, Polanco at 2B, a Julien/Solano platoon at 1B, Kepler in RF, Castro/MAT in CF, and Kirilloff in LF. Farmer the IF UT with Castro and Solano also doing UTL duty. Gallo is a prt time OF?IB?PH who sits more than he starts. Trading for Lane Thomas or Dylan Carlson - both of whom I'd love to have for 2024 when Gallo and maybe Kepler are gone - requires losing Gallo or an injury and probably costs at least a top 15-20 pitching prospect if not one in the 7-10 range. I agree that the only options are a RH LF and maybe a BP arm. I don't see the Twins paying much for either one unless it's for a longer term controllable piece, i.e., Thomas or Carlson. My guess is the price will be too high and what we see is what we got. The quote will be "getting (Lewis, Polanco, Stewart, Theilbar) back is just like a deadline trade upgrade without the cost."
  3. Dylan Carlson could be a good get if we can't get Lane for an affordable price. Young, switch hitter, can play center field, .845 OPS against LH pitching this year (only .664 against RH pitching), arb eligible in 2024, FA in 2027. Would rather have Lane but Carlson might be a decent fall back. Lane and Carlson only work if we lose Gallo though so they can get some ABs. Turner is ok and has the right pedigree but where do you play him once Lewis comes back? You don't want to play Turner at the expense of Lewis, Kirlloff, or Julien (by forcing Polanco back to 2B). I just don't see how he fits unless Buxton is done for the season. Teoscar Hernandez is the classic boom or bust guy. Hard to find a place to play him a lot unless Gallo is gone, and even then it limits your options. If he's available for a mid level prospect or an A ball lottery ticket, ok I guess if coupled wiht losing Gallo, but I wouldn't give up a real asset for him with the roster where it is. Hard to see a place to play him without limiting the young guys we have who have earned time - Julien, Kirillof and Lewis - and that's something I really don't want to do. Lane or Carlson combined with losing Gallo - sign me up. Turner if Buxton or Lewis will be gone into September or for the year? Ok. Other than that, just not seeing the value here.
  4. It is weird because you feel like there need to be some changes but the available players don't project as clear "upgrades" either. Is Aaron Hicks better than Joey Gallo? Maybe, maybe not. It's very hard to see anyone who is available or allegedly available in trade as a clear upgrade to who we already have unless we're willing to pay a significant prospect price. I actually think some of the upgrades we need will come as a result of guys returning from injury. Lewis is a clear upgrade at 3d and will upgrade the lineup playing every day and hitting in the 3-6 holes. Polanco is additive on offense in the top 6 spots once we figure out how to play both him and Julien every day (hint, give Polanco some innings at 1B and 3B in the rehab, and put Julien at 1B with Kirlloff in LF a couple of times this week to see how it works.) Stewart and Theilbar should be upgrades in the bullpen over Sands and Pagan/Balazovic when they get back. We've got to put Kuechel on the roster by 7/31 or lose him - is he an upgrade over Maeda? Can Maeda go to the bullpen? I think the best way for the Twins to upgrade is to play the guys they have and keep the young productive guys like Kirilloff, Lewis and Julien in the every day lineup once everyone is available. That may mean losing Gallo (I think Kepler's .267/.330/.522 over the last 30 games/90 ABs saved his job), and it may mean either sending Wallner back down or choosing between Castro and Solano unless someone is hurt. Still, hard to see any other way to upgrade without a huge prospect cost. It looks to me like that's a cost we can't afford after last year's trades.
  5. Very difficult decision to handle properly with a prideful guy who has been a good player until this season. I that's why I like the idea of putting him on the IL. That gives you the option of sitting him down and telling him that the team just wants him to take the time to get himself right so he can help the team later in the season during a playoff drive and in the playoffs. The Twins can make him feel good about his place on the team long-term. Between the IL stint and a rehab in AAA, you probably keep him out until early to mid August. That gives you a chance to see if Wallner really can play at the MLB level and hopefully confirm that Julien and Kirilloff belong the Bigs. Also gives you a chance to see if Polanco can stay injury free. You open up a spot at the end of the month by losing one of Kepler or Gallo hopefully, and also have someone in the background in case you have another injury. It's tough when Lewis is ready to come back but that's the problem for another day.
  6. This kind of an interesting idea. You put Polanco or Julien at 1B, with the other at 2B. Kirilloff plays LF/1B, with Wallner/Kepler/Gallo at RF and DH. That puts a strong left-handed bat on the bench every game between Julien, Kirilloff, Wallner, Kepler and Gallo, with the other four in the lineup. Polanco, Kirilloff and Julien play almost every day. Solano and Farmer hold down third-base for now with Castro in a CF platoon with MAT. Could be tough against left-handed starting pitching, but then you bring in Solano and Farmer and sit two of the left-handed hitters. My view is to keep playing Kirilloff and Julien as much as you can even against left-handed pitchers. Against right-handed pitching, either Solano or Farmer plays 3B, and the other can potentially can be the DH if you wanted to sit two of the left-handed hitters. Key is it does require Buxton to go on the Il to make room for Polanco. If yo want to balance a little more between right and left hitters, or even just do the right thing, trade or release Gallo and call up Chris Williams (my choice) or Andrew Stevenson. Now you have plenty of right-handed hitters if you want to do more platooning and help the team against left-handed starters, the current biggest weakness. Effectively, take the same roster we have now, put Buxton on the IL, move Gallo out, and replace them with Polanco and Williams.
  7. Agreed, and you could have Julien to LF over Gallo. He's the one that should go first IMHO. Plus, LF is easier than RF for a guy who has had TJ surgery.
  8. Excellent point. The failure to call up Larnach in particular, and also Wallner, would say volumes about the FOs view of the two players. This is particularly true given the offensive futility of Gallo and Kepler not just this year but the last 3.5 years for Kepler and the last 1.5 years for Gallo. Maybe you could make the defensive argument when they were younger, but they're both over or pushing 30 and their defensive value is decreasing fast. The evidence shows that the idea that the we are going to get the 2019 Kepler or the 2020-2021 Gallo in the second half for more than an occasional hot streak is just a fantasy. This all really does make one wonder if the FO just doesn't believe that Larnach and/or Wallner can cut it at the MLB level. Larnach is 26, Wallner is 25. They are at least a basic version of what they are - Improvement now will most likely be incremental. If the FO doesn't think they can help the Twins, trade them now while they still have some value. Oakland or KC might be willing to give up a solid to better relief pitcher for one of them. Whatever you do, don't let these 2 guys just rot in AAA. Have these guys help us by playing at the MLB level or trading them for guys who can help us.
  9. Cody is right. Yes, improvement by Buxton and Correa is the most important thing to improve the lineup. That shouldn't stop the Twins from improving where they can, or at least trying to do so. You hsould never let the desire for the perfect solution stop you from making improvements. Are Larnach and Wallner better than Gallo and Kepler? I'd say it's probably a 55/45 proposition on the "yes" side, maybe 50/50 or 60/40. To me, that's worth a shot. Moreover, there's very little downside . It would tough for them to be worse and if they are, throw Kirilloff and Castro out there every day, make Solano the full time 1B, and/or call up Andrew Stevenson and things still improve over what they are now. This is a no brainer.
  10. I wonder about something that I think is germane to this topic. We all want the team to DO SOMETHING so we will get better! There seems to be agreement that giving Wallner consistent ABs in the OF is one thing we should do, and also keeping Julien in the lineup some how. Some want to trade for a BP piece or a bat (including me on the bat), all the while recognizing that kind of a trade will be a small upgrade at best. We're not getting a high end producer in a trade because we don't have anything left to trade that will get us a high end producer. Is there really anything else? What is it? Maybe that's why this is such a frustrating conversation. We want the team to do something but there really isn't much we can do. Hey, I'm all on board with bringing up Wallner and losing either Gallo or Kepler (I would lose both and bring up Wallner and Larnach with Stevenson in reserve) and/or a trade for a veteran RH outfield bat or bullpen piece. But that's probably it is in the realm of possibility. And I know in my heart of hearts that even doing all of those things is unlikely to get us above 85 wins and a first round playoff exit unless Buxton, Correa and/or Polanco start hitting like superstars. So the frustrating part is that it really is a waiting game on those three players. It is broke and we can't fix it from the outside, we can only hope it heals itself.
  11. I understand the desire to fire Rocco; the manager always gets more credit and more blame than deserved. I actually think this roster is performing at or above the talent level with the exception of Correa, Buxton, and Jorge Lopez. Gallo and Kepler aren't very good (to put it mildly), but neither has been very good for the last 2-3 years. We really miss Polanco in the lineup, it stinks that Miranda has taken a huge step back, and it really hurts that Lewis is on the IL again. Other than that, this team is basically what you would expect in the field, better than expected on the mound, and unearthing Solano and Castro is a very good thing. The point of all this is that it doesn't scream Fire The Manager to me. It screams overhaul the roster and do it now, not in the off season. A new manager isn't going to make Correa, Buxton, Kepler or Gallo hit better - a new manager would at most sit Kepler and Gallo IF the FO would call up Wallner and/ or Larnach. I really think that this group wins 82-85 games, may win the Central if the other teams don't perform, and promptly flames out unless we get at least 2 NEW bats in the lineup AND Buxton and Correa have better second halves of the season. One of those bats could be Wallner or Larnach, but one probably needs to come from outside of the organization. Trade for Grinchuk, Canha or even better, Lane Thomas or Teoscar Hernandez if you can get them without gutting the system. Call up Wallner. Make the needed room by losing Gallo and Kepler even if you have to eat salary and/or get nothing but A ball lottery tickets in return. Fire Rocco? Meh. Don't really care a lot because he isn't the problem and a new manager isn't the solution. Make a significant shakeup in the non-pitching side of the roster? I'm all for it.
  12. Get the concept but who are the young guys playing well? Wallner and Larnach, yes, but there isn't much of anyone else at AAA that gets one's hopes up. Andrew Stevenson is hitting in AAA, but is 29 and has had 395 MLB ABs with a .687 OPS. Bechtold has a career .729 minor league OPS. Maybe Chris Williams? He's got good stats, but he plays IB and sort of catches, and he struck out 144 times in 422 ABs in 2022, 75 in 191 ABs this year. In AA, Severino has decent stats except he's struck out 97 times in 268 ABs (298 PAs). Brooks Lee is coming on a little but he didn't hit at all in spring training and it's taken him a while to find his legs in AA. Both need some AAA time before they'll really be ready. The depressing thing about this team is that there just isn't much in the system that could improve the lineup that we haven't already tried other than the corner OFs. I'm all on board with somehow losing or benching Gallo and Kepler (in that order) and replacing them with Wallner and Larnach (also in that order). Getting Polanco and particularly Lewis back from the Il will help, at least some. Other than that, a trade is really the only way to improve things in the lineup in my view (unless we want to trade out MAT or Castro for Stevenson). I'm so desperate for hitting that Nelson Cruz seems possible, but I know it's a bad idea. This lineup's best chance to get better is a much better second half from Correa and Buxton. The rest of the things suggested here are interesting but only represent improvement on the margins. This lineup needs much more than that.
  13. You may be right but there's no reason that has to be the case. The Twins would have no trouble covering 3B without Miranda on the roster. They have Solano, Farmer, and Castro who are equally as adept in the field (perhaps more so), and all of them are hitting better than Miranda. They can play one of those three at 3B and still have two utility infielders on the bench. There's no reason that we have to wait for an OF the be traded, cut, or injured to bring up Wallner unless the issue is that Rocco doesn't want to bench Gallo or Kepler (or Buxton). My point here isn't that this is what I think the Twins are going to do, or maybe even should do, but they certainly can do if we want to check out Wallner before the trade deadline. It does mean consigning either Kepler or Gallo, or some combination thereof, to the bench most nights unless Buxton is going to the OF or the IL. There's absolutely no point in bringing Wallner up unless he is going to be playing at least four or five days a week. Still, at least some folks here believe that adding Wallner to the lineup over either Gallo or Kepler would allow the team score more runs. I have to admit that I'm hopeful but a little dubious since Wallner strikes out so much in AAA. The bottom line is what we may be seeing is the result of the organization's analysis as to whether Wallner can help this lineup more than either Kepler or Gallo much more so than Wallner being "blocked" by some level of numbers game.
  14. Actually, that could work if you make Castro the UTL IF. Wallner plays LF instead of Gallo (unless Gallo plays CF) or you take Gallo, Kepler and Wallner to play LF and RF in some combination every day. Not so great against LH pitching to be sure, but it is a way to get Wallner up before losing either Gallo or Kepler. We really do have plenty of IFs with Kirilloff, Julien, Correa, Solano, Farmer and Castro. That's not a reason to keep Miranda and keep Wallner down. Personally, I would lose Gallo or Kepler sooner rather than later and bring up Wallner for a try. Having said that, there is no real reason we couldn't get Wallner up now if we wanted to by simply sending Miranda down. Farmer, Solano, and Castro can handle 3B with Julien at 2B and Correa at SS until Polanco/Lewis come back. Bringing up Wallner that way and playing him would only require benching Buxton, Kepler or Gallo to give Wallner playing time. I think that's the real issue; Rocco doesn't want to bench one of those 3 regularly so there's no room to bring up Wallner and give him consistent ABs, especially with Buxton an everyday DH.
  15. You're right that there is no straightforward path. This offense isn't one stick away at an obviously open position. The Twins are 2-3 hitters away and the ones they do have all play in the IF. In fact, once Polanco and Lewis come back, the only way to play Julien is to move him to 1B and Kirilloff to the OF. Not ideal. Yet even with that, it's unlikely to help much since the vets are not performing. That's why I think the best bet is to do a semi teardown and do it now. Trade/DFA Gallo AND Kepler, bring up Larnach and Wallner who will be competing with each other and with maybe Kirilloff and Castro. Move Julien to 1B and Kirilloff to the OF when Polanco comes back. Play Miranda every day for 3-4 weeks at 3B while Lewis is out and see if his bat comes back. If Buxton can't play some OF, put him on the IL and hope he can in 3-4 weeks while others DH. He is not helping us now. Jeffers is your starting C and Velasquez plays 30% of the games. Give Andrew Stevenson some run in CF. Let Kirilloff, Julien, and Larnach/Wallner hit against LH pitching. They aren't going to get better unless they get a shot. Could this all turn into an ugly disaster? Of course. But frankly, how is that much different than what we are running out there right now? Not only that, it gives the FO insight as to who is ready to play. The current strategy runs out a least one guy who won't even be here next year in Gallo, two if you count Kepler in the unlikely to be retained group (I do), and relies pretty heavily on a 35 year old journeyman in Solano, a 32 year old occasional hit CF in MAT, and gives 400-500 ABs to a nice utility guy who shouldn't be starting for any MLB team in Castro. This makes no sense, short or long term. Change it up or just give up.
  16. I've heard that a lot about Julien - can't play 3B. We want to keep his bat in the lineup when polanc returns, at least against RH starters. Why can't Julien play 3B? Arm strength? If he can't, can Polanco throw well enough to play 3B? Need to have them both in the lineup. Maybe Julien at 1B, Kirilloff in LF and Polanco at 2B? When you only have 3-5 hitters and 2 of them play the same position, you gotta get creative.
  17. Which is why I think Kepler is the twins RF in 2024. Gallo goes and Walner and Larnach fight it out for LF.
  18. I think you're right - Kepler will be the RF next year if he even hits a little less than his career average of .231/.315/.427 this year and has 20 or so HRs. Larnach has been at best inconsistent at the MLB level and Wallner has all of 76 MLB ABs, only 19 this year. I cna't see them dumping Kepler and Gallo, and it's hard for me to see the Twins re-signing Gallo unless thing tick up a whole bunch from where they are now. It's looking more and more like the "mistake" that blocks giving Wallner his shot was picking up Joey Gallo. Hopefully we kind find a home for him by the trade deadline in return for an average reliever or maybe A Ball lottery ticket or two so Wallner can get a shot. I can't see the Twins opening up both RF and LF this year or next when the only thing between them and more Garlick is an inconsistent Larnach and an untested Wallner. Let's open one spot and at least get the "untested" issue solved.
  19. There actually are trades that work out for both teams. I think this is one of them. Both teams got what they needed and both players are performing at a very high level. Add in that we signed Lopez through 2027 for roughly 18.5m a season, and the Marlins get two more years of arbitration before Arraez becomes a free agent and everybody wins. I'll cheer for Luis and hope he hits .350 while I cheer for the Twins and hope Lopez wins multiple playoff games. I think both will happen.
  20. Hader, Barlow or David Robertson could be very interesting depending on the price. On the hitting side, Lane Thomas would be a really good get and Teoscar Hernandez or Tommy Pham could help, again depending on the price. Jurickson Profar initially sounded a little interesting but I wouldn't give up much for him. I live in LA so I've seen the Cody Bellinger show up close and personal. Can be great, can be awful, and you never know what you're going to get. Given his contract and the cost to get him he's a pass for me. Candelario might be nice for the next 4-6 weeks if we could get him NOW but where does Lewis play when he comes back? Nobody else moves the needle much for me.
  21. I agree. You need to have both guys who get on base and power guys. Most importantly you have to play the style that best suits your personnel. We don't have the personnel for a small ball approach. To be sure, some of that is self inflicted by the batting coaches and by picking up FAs like Gallo, although i do want to mention we also picked up Solano, the polar opposite of Gallo. Good offensive teams are balanced with TTO guys and OBP guys. We are just too far on the power/TTO side, especially now that Lewis is out. You can see the difference when Correa and Buxton stop selling out for power and the team starts to score more or at least put more pressure on their opponent's pitching and defense. I'd love to see us pick up a higher BA/OPB guy at the trade deadline. I'm just not willing to give up much for him. Why? Because unless they hit over .300 with an over.800 OPS they aren't worth much, and they really aren't worth much unless they hit in front of higher SLG % guys.
  22. Agreed. I wonder if moving Buxton to LF would help? He can probably play LF without a lot of practice time. I'm not sure how much that helps the lineup since CF would still need to be a mix of MAT and Castro. Would open up the DH spot to rotate guys through, but still doesn't stop the real roster issue - we shouldn't have both Kepler and Gallo. One (this week my vote is Gallo) should go.
  23. Yes it's the Royals but let's enjoy the moment while it's here. Who knows, maybe this continues. A girl can dream, right?
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