LA Vikes Fan

I think the lack of speed may be part of the answer but I think the bigger part is the lack of a true "number 4/number five" hitter. When you look at the Twins lineup most days you either see Max Kepler, Gary Sanchez, Kyle Garlick or Geo Urshela in a run producing spot like number 4 or number 5. These 4 hitters should be batting no higher than 6 in a competitive lineup, and frankly all four of them deserve spots like 7 in the order. I think what we have is four hitters for the top of the order (three against left-handed pitching) in Arraez, Polanco, Buxton, and Correa. Then the other five hitters in the lineup are all guys you should be hitting in the back third, and we're missing those "bridge" hitters between our good hitters and the average to slightly above average hitters. I had hopes for Miranda during his hot streak but I think that was premature. To me, this is the reason to make the hard choice of demoting Larnach or Miranda so that Kirilloff can come up. He is the most likely of those three to be that solid, consistent, #5 every day hitter. Unfortunately, that's what we need to score more runs. We simply don't have that guy now and Kepler, Sanchez, Garlick and Urshela will never be that guy.

Another good way to go. It's a tough choice between keeping up Miranda or Garlick. For that matter, it's a tough choice to send down Larnach so Kirilloff can come up but Larnach stopped hitting so maybe it's getting a little easier.

We can have 3 of the following 5 on the 26 man roster - Celestino, Miranda, Larnach, Garlick and Kirilloff. I think it's really 2 of 4 since Celestino is the only one who can play CF - and we need that 2-3 times a week - and he is hitting .330 (albeit with with no power). It's a tough call. I would bring up Kirilloff and option Garlick and Larnach, Keep Miranda up in the bigs. I would prefer to keep Larnach up but we need the RH bat. I prefer Miranda over Garlick because I think Miranda is a big part of the next 5 years and Garlick is not. I still see this year as a higher level developmental year, not a go for broke to try to get a championship year. We will need Miranda a next year if Ursehla is gone and will need his bat if Correa is gone. I'd frankly like to find a way to get Kirilloff, Miranda and Larnach 400-500 ABs apiece this year but there's probably only room for 2 of them to get that many. Still, very tough call.

I think he's the plan to augment the bullpen for the stretch run and hopefully the postseason. I live in LA and the Dodgers typically used him as a starter until August and then put him in the bullpen to limit his innings to 150 or less. They were concerned he would blow out his elbow since he came to the States from Japan with concerning medical reports on his elbow. He was a very good reliever and could be a dominant 8th inning guy out of the bullpen. We need at least 2 more late inning arms, more than we can likely get in trades. I'm hoping that Maeda is ready in time to be one of those arms.

It actually looks to me like the move might be to swap out Kirrilloff for Larnach. I just don’t know what to sending Larnach down will do for his confidence. I think they’re going to wait another week or so to see if there is an injury and, if not, that’s the change I would expect.

I don't think losing Urshela or Gordon gets more at bats for Kiriloff unless you trade Urshela and make Arraez the everyday 3B with Kirilloff at 1B and Miranda playing a couple of days a week each at 1B and 3B. I don't see that happening because of the defensive downgrade. Arraez is not a good 3B with the glove. I really think you have to lose Garlick or Larnach to get ABs for Kirilloff right now. An injury can change all of that.

The problem is whose ABs do you take away so that Kirilloff can paly at least 4 or 5 days a week? it makes no sense to bring him up and play him a couple of days a week. That will hurt his development, not help him. I think this boils down very simply - we have 5 guys for basically 3.5 to 4 roster spots , 1B, LF, half time DH, and DH/reserve OF. Don't forget, we need to keep open the DH at least 3 days a week for a combination of Buxton, Correa and Sanchez (Sanchez for LH pitching). The 5 guys we have are Arraez, Celestino, Larnach, Garlick, and Kirilloff. Kirilloff is the odd man outright now. Arraez gets a spot because he's by far the best hitter. The rest all have advantages and disadvantages. Celestino is the only one who can play CF (and Kepler in CF is a no go apparently), but his batting average is coming back down to earth and he has no power, Garlick hits LH pitching very well, but can't hit righthanders and is an average at best fielder, Larnach was hitting, slumping now, and is actually a pretty good OF, and Kirilloff looks great in AAA but his MLB stats? ,242/.290/.393 (.683) and that includes the good part of last year. Hardly awe inspiring but the injury MAY be the reason for that, or he might not be that good yet. I actually think this is a very tough choice. I think there's 3 ways to get Kirilloff on the team. First choice is to option down Celestino IF we're willing to play Kepler in CF between Larnach and Kirilloff 3 days a week or Larnach or Kirilloff could play CF. Playing Gordon in CF is ok, but it doesn't create room for Kirilloff - you still have to bench somebody who is performing to shoehorn him into the lineup. The second option is to DFA Garlick, making us very vulnerable to LH starting pitching unless Kirilloff can hit lefties well. Option 3 is to send Larnach down and give Kirilloff his spot. Hard to like option 2 or 3. Maybe the best thing is to play Kirilloff in CF in AAA and see if he could take Celestino's spot. Bottom line is Kirilloff had a chance, didn't perform, and Larnach did perform and took his spot. Maybe it was an injury that sent him down but the reason is irrelevant - he didn't perform, someone else did, and he is outside looking in. I'd like to see him get a chance because he could be that middle of the order bat we need so Kepler can move to the 6 hole but someone who is performing has to go. Don't just say bring up Kirilloff, tell me who goes to give him a spot.

I think the A’s will want some MLB ready pitching in return for Montas, someone like Winder or Sands. I don’t think a package built around a position player, particularly one with Kirilloff’s injury history or a recent breakout like Steer, will work. I think it’s more likely they will want a winder or Sands PLUS a Miranda or Steer PLUS a non–40 man young pitching prospect. I just think the cost is too high for Montas given that I don’t think this team is one starter away from World Series contention. Maybe next year with more development and if Correa stays, but not this year. Mahle or Castillo are more realistic starting picture targets in my humble opinion, We probably will have to give up young pitching To get either of them since they both have a year and a half left before free agency, but they might realistically be had for a Winder or Sands type plus lesser position players or younger pitching. That’s the way I would go if we go for a starting pitcher at all. We do need at least one more bullpen piece but I’m hopeful that Maeda can be the second piece come August. He was a very good reliever for the Dodgers who would typically start him for the first 100 games and then put him in the bullpen. I think if we can get one more quality reliever and Mazda can be that second reliever come mid August through the end of the season, That probably does as much for us as anything else. Bottom line, I think this is a fun team but not one starter away from contending for the World Series so I would not trade away the farm to get that starter.

I wouldn't trade Martin except as part of a package for Frankie Montas or someone of his level. Certainly not for a reliver or 3 month starter rental. there isn't a good reason to sell low on him yet. Not at 23 years old with less than 150 professional games in so far. By the way, trading for Martin Perez with Texas is not smart. Good for him that his year has been good so far. Bad for us if we trade for his inevitable fall off. I say we stick with what we have in the rotation unless Montas is available (or someone at his level). For the bullpen, trade for a veteran having a decent year but don't give up a top prospect and don't trade for a "name" reliever, those guys rarely work out long term. I say we run with what we have. Let's plant the seeds for next year now. Oh, and something we can all agree on, IL or DFA Duffy.

That's the problem - we don't have other options. My guess is that if Ryan and Winder's rehab starts go well, they will both be up to start next week for the end of the Seattle series or in Arizona. Until then, we have to keep Bundy and Sands in the rotation because we simply don't have anybody else. Gray isn't available until 6/14 and also may get a rehab start. Ober 6/18. It seems like the best case scenario is we have is to have a full rotation by the Arizona series a week from this weekend. That means Bundy gets at least 2 starts - tonight against the Yankees and next week against the Mariners. Even with that, we will need to start a Chi Chi type or have a bulllpen game this weekend against Tampa. Bottom line, Bundy probably has 2 more starts to show he can stay at the MLB level. Doubtful he will, so I expect him to be put on the IL or DFA'd by the end of next week. Tonight is critical for him.

He’s hitting .348/.375.692(1.068) in his last 7 games, and .348/.375/.652(1.029) in his last 15. Hard to send him down. This won’t last obviously but you gotta keep playing him. He’s an adventure in the field at first base, but maybe third base would be a better spot . With this team, it’s getting harder to see a spot for Kirilloff or Lewis on the 26 man before the cut to 13 pitchers. An injury will change that analysis and give them opportunities, but right now everyone on the roster is earning their spot.

This actually answers a question that I had- is Buxton as bad a DH as it looks? Seems as though he is. I have to think playing 2 out of 3 games in CF is a better way to go with him. Some guys just have a hard time as a DH. Buxton May be one of those guys.

Please dear God, no. Same guy. Hot streak then disaster. If he's stays this good through end of July? Maaaaybe....

I tend to agree. His knee is robbing him of the three things that make them so special, his speed, defense, and power. It's an unusual combination and it requires a good base to pull off. He just doesn't have that base now to either run or form the solid back side while swinging. I'm not sure though that putting Buxton on the IL makes room for Kirilloff though. Assumedly, Celestino would have to play centerfield on a daily basis and you still have the logjam at !B, LF and DH if you bring up Kirilloff. Maybe that frees up a few more DH at bats for him but that's about it. I think the real choice here is between Larnach and Kirilloff, one up and one down, losing Garlick, demoting Miranda, or exposing Gordon so both Larnach and Kirilloff off can be on the team. Before the season I would've said that's an easy choice, simply lose Garlick. But with the way he has hit LH pitching this year, it's hard to not keep him around. Three weeks ago I would've said that's an easy choice, demote Miranda, and then Miranda turned into one of our best hitters over the last three weeks. The bottom line may be that Kirilloff failed to perform when given his opportunity and he will simply have to wait until someone gets hurt or goes into a prolonged slump before he gets another.

Assuming he's really back, there shouldn't be that big a problem finding him ABs. Essentially, we have 7 players for 3 positions if he returns - Arraez, Larnach, Kirilloff, Celestino, Sanchez (when not C), and Garlick, Miranda or Gordon (one of those three has to go to give Kirilloff a spot) for 1B, DH and LF. I would Catch Sanchez 4 days a week, Jeffers the other 2 (or even consider moving Jeffers to AAA to work on his hitting), but not DH Sanchez when not catching. That leaves Arraez, Larnach, Kiriloff, Celestino, and Garlick or Gordon for LF, DH and 1B. Arraez plays only against RH pitching with Kirilloff at 1B and Larnach in LF or DH with Celestino getting the other. Celestino plays CF when Buxton sits/DHs and occasionally in RF for Kepler. Garlick starts as the LF/DH against LH starters with Arraez at 1B and someone from the Larnach/Kirilloff/Celestino/Miranda group in the LF/DH spot. There is a path to playing Kirilloff 4-5 days a week. The losers here are Jeffers becoming the true backup Catcher, Larnach not playing every day, and either Garlick, Mirnda or Gordon gone with the other two not getting anywhere near as many at bats. That means you only do this IF you think Kirilloff will play/hit better than Gordon, Miranda, Larnach and Jeffers. Where it really becomes crowded is when Lewis is ready to come back. he frankly has played better at the MLB level than Gordon, Larnach, Kirilloff, Garlick, Miranda and Jeffers. Lewis should have first call on ABs over all of that group. Good problem to have but injuries will probably solve it for us.

You have to think an IL stint is coming for Duffy. I watched him yesterday and he couldn't throw strikes with his curveball. The Jays just didn't even consider offering at his breaking pitches. They then jumped all over his fastball, even if it was 94 with some movement. He can't pitch his way out of this.

I'm not a huge Baldelli fan but I actually see him trying to react to the lineup issues. He called for a sacrifice bunt in the late innings today and he is definitely trying to manufacture runs with Correa out and Buxton and Polanco both hurting and not hitting. I think he's done a decent job with an undermanned bullpen. Overall, I'd give him a B/B- for the year so far. Not great, but not bad.

I think Polanco is playing hurt with a bad ankle. He doesn't complain but you can see him favoring the ankle when he gets fooled on a swing. I could easily see him going on the 10 day IL either when Correa comes back with Arraez moving to 2B and Miranda the full time 1B, or when Lewis comes back. It would probably be the best thing for him,

I don't know about you guys, but I am enjoying the ride so far. I just have to be careful not to think this team is better than it actually is for my own emotional health. I think this is a solid team, not great, not even very good, but very solid. Should be a very fun summer and I think we have a better than 50/50 chance of being in the playoffs. Who would've thought that after last year? Let's face it, we are one guy short in all three major categories and we need a top-end guy in each. The starting rotation is a #1/2 starter short, the bullpen desperately needs two late inning arms (I think Alcala can be one of those two), and the offense desperately needs a middle of the order bopper or for Buxton to be that guy and a high OBP guy to add. The fun part about the rest of the season is that we may actually have or be able to trade for or develop all of those guys. We have the prospect capital to get a Frankie Montas type starter, relievers tend to be the one thing you can trade for at the deadline and get actual help, and between Lewis, Miranda, and maybe even Kirilloff, we might have that extra middle of the order bat or high OBP guy we desperately need. Who knows, maybe even a miracle will hppen and Miguel Sano will come back with a .260/.325/.550 second half and be that middle of your bat. Stranger things have happened. Hey, it's been fun so far. It could be a fun summer baseball for this team.

I was hoping Archer would improve over time, but I really question if it's going to happen. He just doesn't have the control one needs to make his arsenal of pitches work. It just doesn't work to have to throw 80-85 pitches to get through 4 innings for a guy with good stuff and Archer no longer has good stuff. He has to pitch to contact, induce weak conduct and throw 10-15 pitches for 5 or 6 innings to have any chance. He just isn't getting any better with his control and he won't be a passable starter until he does. Hey, we can't expect a lot out of a No. 5 starter but Archer isn't even making that mark right now. I think Archer is the guy Paddack was supposed to replace by now. Instead, I see Smeltzer as his replacement once Gray and Ryan are back, hopefully within a week for Ryan. I wonder if Archer can provide value in the bullpen given his inability to throw enough strikes. I hope he can, we need the help, but he isn't inspiring a lot of confidence. Second half rotation - Gray, Ryan, Ober, Smeltzer, Winder/Bundy/Archer, with the two losers either in the bullpen or released. I think the hope is Winder hits the #5 spot, and we keep one of Bundy or Archer as the #6 starter/long reliever, I don't see much of a trade market for either Archer; Bundy may be tradable as the second player in a package with a good but not great prospect to a mediocre team for a #3/4 type starter. .

Thanks for the interesting information. Sounds like we’ll see him again after the AS break between healing and a rehab assignment. the other thing I find interesting is the search for someone to blame. The FO, the manager. Maybe the team made a perfectly reasonable move with a guy who played CF in the Arizona fall league, who was hitting and showed great promise, and we just got unlucky? It happens. Let’s focus on the game and the team rather than blaming guys doing their job fairly well this year. Not every bad thing is someone’s fault.

Chemistry is one of those ephemeral things that is very hard to measure but actually seems to make a big difference on sports teams. I guess is like any other group effort at work; that effort tends to be more successful if the participants get along well and really work for the group rather than for their individual glory. For some reason, this team seems to have good chemistry and that tends to create success (or is it the other way around?). I think that's a very important part of their success so far this year. What's the big difference? I would say adding Carlos Correa and Josh Donaldson playing somewhere else. I also think losing Eddie Rosario last year killed the team in the clubhouse because I think he was their leader. Correa has taken over that mantle.

I concur. It looks like Buxton is playing through an injury. His swing is off. Maybe a 10 day IL stint would help?

We could still get that 3 days a week We could still get that 3 days a week, and I don't think that Lewis would be a huge downgrade given that he showed himself to be a solid glove at SS. Urshela part time at 1B would also improve the defense on that side of the IF.

I was going to say the same thing. The thing that impresses me is the change in Kepler. I've been one of his biggest critics here but I may have been wrong. Watching Kepler use the left side of the field and hit lefties has me hoping that he might be a .260/.350/.425 hitter. That guy can hit 5 or 6 every day for a contending team and is a very valuable guy when you add in his very good to elite defense. Popkins has also apparently helped Sanchez hit better by using the opposite field. A .235/.290/.450 hitting catcher is a good thing if he is even a tick below average behind the plate. Now he just needs to help Urshela, Polanco, and Jeffers...