LA Vikes Fan

Now that we've won, time to start thinking about how we line up the starters for the ALDS. Games 1 and 2 are Saturday and Sunday in Houston, 3 and 4 are Tuesday and Wednesday in MN, and game 5 Friday in Houston. Lopez is able to go Sunday on 4 days rest, Gray not until Tuesday. Ryan would be next man up but hasn't pitched well lately and got bombed when he started in Houston on May 30. I think Ober is a better bet on the road, so is Maeda. Here's what I would do: Saturday - Ober Sunday - Lopez Tuesday - Gray Wednesday - Ryan/Maeda Friday Lopez Ober joins roster instead of Paddack or Funderburk (I say drop Paddack for Ober). Gives you Lopez twice, Gray in a possible elimination game, and gives us a better chance on Saturday with Ober instead of Ryan. Ryan pitches at home where he's much better. Thoughts?

So now that we've won, what's the starter order for the ALDS?

I understand the angst on the Buxton contract but let's not forget it's "only" $14.2875m a year. That's not a huge amount of money for player of his caliber even with the injury risk. I actually think that contract is a good deal for both sides with a fairly reasonable guarantee if for a guy of his talent level, with him having the chance to make more if you really performs. That kind of contract is basically number 3 or 4 starter money and he is potentially much more than that. I think it was a good risk at the time and is a good risk now, even if he winds up having to move to LF or 1B to protect his legs, or is really a full-time DH.

Houston just beat Arizona. With the Mariners losing, I think that means we open up with the Astros.

There's basically 5 guys for 2 spots. I guess the real choice is do you take Paddack and Funderburk or one of those two and either roster Buxton as a bench bat/DH, roster Luplow as a RH pinch hitter/starter against LH pitching, or keep Stevenson on the roster for defense and base running. It's a tough choice. I think it really depends on 2 things. Can Lewis recover quickly enough to be the playoff 3B or will he need to DH? If he's the playoff 3B I tend to say let's keep the extra roster spot for a bat like Buxton or Luplow, or for Stevenson's speed and flexibility. If he needs to DH, Buxton stays home for sure. Second, Is Paddack really ready to pitch in meaningful game situations? We know he can light up the radar gun but last night showed that he has to also hit spots. He did one inning, he didn't in the second inning. No reason to roster him if you have to afraid of when to pitch him. I think you roster Funderburk regardless to give you the second lefty. If Lewis can go in the field, roster Buxton if he's healthy. If not roster Paddack, Luplow or Stevenson. If Lewis needs to DH, the more likely result, roster Paddack if he has two better appearances than last night before the season ends. If not, roster Stevenson. I think his combo of defense and speed is more important than Luplow's ability to be a decent bat against LH pitching,

Too soon for the long term. I agree with you for this year. He didn't hit in AAA (SSS) so it's hard to see why we would activate him for the playoffs if he can't play in the field. And he can't. Have to keep the DH spot open for Lewis in the first round. I hate to say it, but I wouldn't be surprised if Buxton is left off of the post season roster for at least the first round and maybe even more, IF there is more.

Makes sense to DFA Floro. He wasn't going to make the team for the playoffs and his contract is up at the end of the year. Why save him for 6 meaningless games? I think this is it. No reason to rush Alcala back; he won't be on a post season roster either. Post season bull pen is Duran, Thielbar, Jax, Pagan, Stewart, Paddack, Maeda, Varland. Maybe add one of Funderburk, Keuchel or Ober, most likely Funderburk (my choice)or Keuchel. I don't see Ober in the BP for the first round and Ryan is starter #3. Still gives us only 11 or 12 pitchers so we can take 14 or 15 bats.

Is the current FO perfect? Far from it. Still, you have to give them credit for seizing on the opportunity presented this year to turn over the roster while remaining competitive and winning the division in a down year. Look at all of the new(ish) players over the last 2-3 years on the 26 man roster- Lopez, Gray, Lewis, Kirilloff, Julien, Wallner, Castro, Taylor, Funderburk (finally), Ryan, Ober.... They have turned over half of the roster in the last 2 years and won the division in year 2. Yes, the division is very weak. That created an opportunity to continue the rebuild and still have a real shot at the playoffs. The FO seized that opportunity. That's not luck. That's good management. Recognizing opportunities and making moves to take advantage of them is exactly what you want good management to do. I really don't understand why there are some here who just hate the FO and won't give them any credit for this year's partial success. Note the use of the word "partial". I agree that "real success" means more than just winning a weak division. Real success means wining at least one playoff series AND being set up to both make the playoffs and make some noise in the playoffs for the next 3-5 years. Are we there? Hard to say. We'll know more on the first criterion in a couple of weeks, the second in a couple of years. Injuries, regression, dumb trades, good trades, all could make a real difference. One thing I think we can say is that the roster turnover the last couple of years makes it more likely that we could have a good run of success for the next 2-3 years, something we could not say under previous management. I don't know about you guys but I'm actually pretty excited about this team. I think they have a chance to win a playoff game or two or even the first series if they can somehow avoid Houston. I also think this team could be a strong contender for the next 3-5 years if things break right. Y'all can complain about about the new guys in the FO. I'm going to watch the games and enjoy the ride.

I'm with Bigfork. The Astros are the team I least want to face in the first round of the playoffs of the likely 4. I think the Rangers, Mariners, and Blue Jays are all better matchups for us in that order. Still, wouldn't mind facing Houston in the second round. I'll take anybody in the second round. Just happy to be there.

Really interesting. Matches the eye test - Polanco has gone from a line drive, contact, doubles hitter to a more fly ball power hitter who sings and misses more. Also, kind of explains why he has so much more trouble against a high velocity guy like Greene yesterday but is much better and more dangerous against more "normal" 90-96 mph fastballs. I'd really be interested in whether there are similar changes in Kepler's profile. He's changed things you can see like being much better at going the opposite way. I'd be really interested if there was any data on the changes he's made to go from borderline unplayable in May and June to borderline All Star status in July and August. Both guys needed to change their approach to stay relevant and productive and both did. There's a lesson in there for us as more than casual fans. Sometimes you do have to see if there's changes in the process and then trust the process, or at least give it a chance to work.

I think this tells you less about Luplow v. Stevenson and more about whether they think Buxton is an available CF option this year. The reason to keep Stevenson is that he can play an above average CF. Luplow cannot. Stevenson can be put in for defensive purposes after Rocco engages in one of his all pinch hitting managerial innings and winds up without the services of Castro or Taylor, or Castro has to go in and play 2B or 3B. Stevenson is then available to play CF at a pretty good level for the last couple of innings. Luplow is more one-dimensional and doesn't give us that same level of defensive flexibility. Oh, and he can steal a base.

I have to admit I'm in the fearful Minnesota sports camp of not believing we've "won" anything until it actually happens. Once we clinch, I'm right there with you - give Julien, Kirilloff, and Wallner all the ABs they can handle against LH pitching as long as we can find enough ABs for Solano and Famer to keep them on rhythm for the playoffs. I would shut down Correa once we clinch and play Farmer every day at SS so Correa can refresh, give Lewis a day off here or there with Polanco at 3B, etc. The Angels are starting 3 LHs this coming weekend and all 3 of them are average or better - Anderson, Detmers and Sandoval. I hope we can reduce the magic number to 2 or 3 against Concy and then the young LH hitters can hit against those 3 guys.

Guys, it is waaaaay too early to reach any meaningful conclusions about how Julien will hit against LH pitching over his career. He's had the princely sum of 43 Abs against LH pitching in the Bigs. The kid is all of 24 years old. Nor is now the time to "give him a chance" against LH pitching given that his slash line in those 43 ABs is .209/.209/.233 (.442). This team should be in the playoffs with a chance to win a series. Rocco is absolutely correct to play for TODAY. That means swapping out Julien for Solano (or Farmer) when a LH pitcher comes in to improve our chances of winning today. The Vazquez pinch hitting spot was an anomaly because Correa needed a full day off. That won't happen in the playoffs. Spring training and the early regular season next year is the time to work on Julien's hitting against LH pitching and, for that matter, the same is true for Kirilloff and Wallner too. They do need experience against major league lefties in game situations; but they don't need it in September or October, 2023. Early 2024 is just as good if not better - less pressure and facing better pitching before injuries and time take their toll on opposing staffs. Solano is 35 - will he be back next year at age 36 and, if he is, will he be able to repeat the career year he's having in 2023? Gallo will be gone if there is a God. Polanco will be on his last year or two and will be on the IL once or twice in 2024. All of these guys will get a chance against LH pitching next year. It just won't be now. Once they get the next 200 plus ABs against LH pitching over 2024 and 2025 we can get a better handle on whether they can improve against good LH pitching (I think Wallner already is). You're right, we need to give them that opportunity. We just don't need to give it to them now while we're trying to win a division and make some noise in the playoffs.

This is all premature. Hopefully we will clinch the division with at least 7-10 games out play. Thereafter, give Julien ABs against LH pitching, also in any blowouts . Repeat this in spring training and then at the start of 2024. In other words, don't write him off against LH pitching yet but don't give him ABs against LH pitching in meaningful situations or in the playoffs. Frankly, same for Wallner and Kirilloff.

I don't think anyone is going to trade an "elite" pitching prospect for Larnach. That's why my view is that you test the market to see if there's someone that you think has value that can be unlocked. Two good examples are the Ryan trade and the trade of Spencer Steer. Neither was considered an elite prospect but the Twins and Reds saw something and now both appear to above average MLB players. Target that kind of player at the AA or A level on a poor team who is rebuilding their offense. Rooker was never going to be a starter on a good team. His only chance was to go to a bad team and get an opportunity. The jury is still out on him but he might be a decent to good MLB hitter. I see Larnach in the same way. He could be a good MLB hitter but only if he gets a full year of playing very day in the Bigs. The Twins are in a contention window and can only do that with either Larnach or Wallner. We've chosen Wallner. Perhaps the As, Royals, Rockies, etc. see Larnach's potential the same way and would be willing to gamble a 20-30 prospect in the low minors to get a guy who will be controllable for a few years and isn't even arb eligible so he'll be cheap for those few years. The Twins get a development prospect that may pan out but may not. That's the kind of trade I'm advocating. If we can't get that, keep him for depth.

I understand the logic behind this, but have one caveat. I think we need to take in account the very real possibility that one of the current young IFs is going to move to the OF to get everyone into the lineup, especially if Polanco is retained. I think there is at least a 75% chance that Polanco's option is exercised given his production and the cost, and the way the Twins just seem to score more runs when he's in the lineup. Add in Kirilloff, Julien, Correa, Lewis, Farmer, Solano, and next year's IF is full or even 1 oversold. And that's assuming Castro and Gordon are both full time OFs or Gordon is possibly gone In 2024 you have to add Miranda back into the IF mix and possibly Lee or Severino by mid-season. That's quite a log jam of players, 8 of whom have had at least some MLB success. I expect that one of them will become a LF option in 2024, probably either Kirilloff or Lewis. It's also possible that Lewis may move to CF. Now the OF is really oversold. My view is trade from depth to fill weakness or to get long term prospects. I wouldn't trade Larnach just to trade him, but I would trade him for longer term pitching options like guys in A or AA with upside. I also might trade him for a stuck or stalled talented AA or AAA guy who pitches or catches, but that's less likely. If that's not available, keep him for depth. But don't hesitate to pull the trigger if a decent trade is available.

I think the move with Larnach is to trade him to a non-contending/rebuilding team like Pittsburg, Oakland, Washington, Colorado, etc. That's where he will have a value - a team that will live with an up and down year in the hope that another 500-600 ABs will help him smooth out the rough edges and become a quality hitter on a pre-arbitration contract in his prime. We need to do it now because he's 27 and his "future value" is already starting to wane. I think Kepler and Polanco's options are both exercised, as they should be given their performance, age, and the cost. I just don't see Larnach having a spot over Kepler, Buxton (assuming he comes back), Wallner, Castro, Taylor (he'll be re-signed), or even Gordon. Also, Lewis may need to move to LF to open a spot for Lee or Miranda (remember him? He was good in 2022). Trade Larnach this off season while he has value and give the guy a chance to be on a team that will play him through his development, What could we get? Not a lot, but I like the Tampa approach. Let's find a team with a couple of developing players at the AA level or lower that we think could be something in 2-3 years or a AAA/AA pitcher that seems to have talent but just can't seem to put it together. In other words, a risk with some upside. I don't think Larnach will get us an established MLB reliever. That we have to develop or buy on the FA market (like that's going to happen). Bottom line, trade him to a bad team for either prospects with a more distant horizon or for another guy that's blocked or stalled and see if you can do something with the return,

Interestingly enough, Pagan and Taylor are both worth 0.9 WAR with very similar stats this season. Taylor - 6-4, 3.00 ERA. 1.167 WHIP., 1 save, first year of a 3 year, $33m deal with SF, no longer with SD, left as a free agent. Pagan - 5-2, 3.38 ERA, 0.987 WHIP, 0 saves, 1 year $3.5m deal, free agent 2024. Rooker also no longer with San Diego, Medina in FCL (i.e. lottery ticket). One could convincingly argue that the Twins lost the trade in 2022 but are the big winners in 2023 since Pagan is here and performing, while the Twins weren't going to pay Rogers $33m over 3 years so he would be gone. With Paddack coming back, could be a very good trade for 2024 for the Twins. Just goes to show you that one shouldn't evaluate a trade (or a draft pick) for at least a year or so.

Agree with this except for Paddack. Lopez, Gray, and Ryan are the first 3. Ober is #4, may not be on the playoff roster for the first round, #4 starter if we get to a second round. Maeda is a bullpen guy from round 1 forward. If he is on playoff roster in round 1 it's at the expense of Winder. Paddack would be a nice addition to the bullpen IF he can pitch a few innings down the stretch in 1 or 2 inning spurts and show he can help in relief. fg he can, probably replaces Varland rather than Funderburk or Kuechel. Louie still has a home run problem and you just can't have a guy like that in the late inning of a playoff game. Maeda can be the playoff long man, has playoff experience. and is better than Varland. We don't really need Varland in the playoffs unless he shows he can be dominating in 1 or 2 inning stretches. He ahs to show he can avoid giving up HRs and his last appearance looked way too much like the 3-5 appearances earlier this season that got him sent down to AAA.

I think Bass player in a neo metal band that channels Metallica, but not one that channels Whitesnake or Van Halen due to the lack of a tattoo sleeve. Not glam enough for Kiss or Velvet Revolver. Has to play Bass because he isn't good looking enough to be the front man but looks serious enough to write some of the band's music.

I agree here. A team needs players who step up and shine in big moments to be successful in post season play. My best "pick to click" in that role is Lewis. He seems to thrive in big moments and you could see Cleveland pitching around him in the last series. That's the ultimate sign of respect from a really good manager in Francona. I also think that Kepler, Wallner, Jeffers, Julien and Solano have the talent and make up to have great moments or even a great series. I just don't see them carrying the team through a longer playoff run if we're lucky enough to get there and have that run. To me the big wildcards are Polanco and Correa. They both need to come up big. If they do, this team has the starting pitching to go places and might have the bullpen with the addition of Maeda, Varland, and Stewart's return to really compete. If they don't, I just don't see that we have the offense to do much more than maybe win one series, if that.

I actually was surprised at how not so horrible the data was. I thought it was worse. Take out Gallo, Garlick, Larnach, Taylor and Buxton and the only high SO people are the rookies Wallner and Julien. Both are rookies and you would expect their SO % to go down over time as they adjust to how they're being pitched. Gallo and Garlick are not on the Twins next year; Taylor and Larnach are iffy. Buxton is a complete question mark. The point is that you would expect to see improvement as a team next year just from the subtraction of some and the expected improvement of others.

Isn't that interesting and refreshing! No Gallo! Way to go, Rocco. Watch, now because I said that Julien will strike out 4 times and make 2 errors....

I think it's time to stop with the "Julien is a butcher at 2B and will never improve" vibe. He certainly started out as a butcher as do many young players first up to the bigs, and the stats and objective analysis says he's improved. Is he great? Not a chance. Is he better? Absolutely. To those who don't want to acknowledge what the objective data says about his fielding improvement, I can only say look again with an open mind. You're were right that he stunk on D when he came up. Players can and often time's do improve. Julien has and chances are, he will continue to improve in the field if he puts in the work. Oh, and climate change is real too. Conversely, his hitting hasn't been good for the last the last month. The league has adjusted to him, now let's see if he adjusts. By the way, Wallner hasn't looked so great lately either although he is adjusting. We can't expect all young players to come up and immediately excel like Lewis. Lewis is a rare breed. We have a quality young player in Julien with a lot of potential and years of low cost control. It would be foolish to trade him now IMHO unless we can get a Ober level or better young starting pitcher in return. That seems unlikely to me so I think the Twins should keep him, have him field 1000 grounders and throws a day in the offseason at 1B and 2B, and play for the upside.

I think you might have it right but I have a slightly different take. Looks like Buxton's return is not imminent so it's really two spots we need - one today or tomorrow for Castro and one Monday for Kirilloff, maybe both on Monday so Castro can use his paternity leave. Assuming no one is going on the Il, I would have predicted Castro for Luplow. Why call up Stevenson if you don't plan on him staying at least a few games? Did Luplow's HR win him another chance? I hope not, I'm still not sold. Gallo still can't hit but he can play 1B better than the rest of the crowd. With Buxton's setback, do we keep Stevenson to play CF or is Castro enough? Is there anyone who needs to go to the IL? Both Taylor and Julien have bad hammys and look like they aren't running well. My prediction is a little different. Castro up, Taylor or Julien goes on the 10 day IL or Luplow back to AAA (he still has options this year). AK up Monday for Luplow if Taylor or Julien is on the Il, takes a spot if both need an IL stint, or for Stevenson if Taylor is ready to play full bore. Gallo stays although Lord knows why. Stevenson stays to play CF until both Castro and Taylor are ready to play CF every day. One other thought. Julien has been really struggling the last 20-30 days. Even his stats over the last 30 games aren't good - .226/.336/.312 (.648), with 2 HRs, 8 RBIs, and 33 SOs in 93 ABs. He really struggled last night. Time for an IL or option re-set? He's not playing 2B and we have a lot of guys who are hitting better that can DH. Wouldn't shock me to see him as one of the odd men out for the next 2 weeks as we work through the roster crunch.