LA Vikes Fan

Substitute the word "Kepler" for the word "Gallo" and I would completely agree with you. Gallo is younger and has shown more upside than Kepler. I agree that we don't need and shouldn't still have both, just disagree that Gallo is the redundant one. You have hit the key issue though - if we have Kepler and Gallo playing in the OF or 1B 5 days a week, that means two of Gordon, Larnach, and Kirilloff won't get enough run in the field or at the plate even with the DH. Not a good idea for the team's development. That also includes Wallner but I don't think he's ready now any way. We need to give him at least 75% of a AAA season before he moves up. .

I kind of like this idea IF we can get away with a 7 man bullpen. that means the other 4 starters have to give us a consistent 6 plus innings to avoid overtaxing a shorter pen. Seems doable for Ryan and Lopez, and maybe Gray, but sounds like a stretch for Mahle. Still, having Maeda and Ober essentially tag team the 5th rotation spot is an interesting idea. Both are unlikely to go more than 125 innings this year coming off of injury so this could really work.

Agreed. I think Ober starts out the year as the #1 in St. Paul unless there is an injury in preseason with one of the top 5. Given Mahle's shoulder, Maeda coming back from TJ, Lopez' injury track record prior to 2022, and Gray's hamstring issues, Ober will get at least 15 MLB starts this year, probably more. Combined with AAA starts, i see him pitching roughly 120-130 innings this year as we try to build him up for a full starter's load in 2024 at the MLB level. No way he goes to the bullpen. Henriquez and Sands both look like long relievers to me and I could even see Henriquez becoming a late inning guy. I think both have value in that role; probably not MLB starters long term. Winder is the tough one. He has the arsenal to be an effective 2/3 starter but not the shoulder. I wouldn't be surprised if he made the team in the remaining bullpen spot, and stayed there after injury with Ober, then SWR, then Varland, as the next men up for the rotation. Still, I'd like to give him one more year's try as a starter since good ones are so hard to find. Maybe Ober and Winder in AAA as starters with Henriquez or Sands in the opening day bullpen. Last chance for Winder. More physical issues this year and he goes to the bullpen. He could be a real asset there long term but let's give him one more chance to hold up as a starter.

Mike, I agree with your thinking but I just have no confidence things will work out that way. Based on what we've seen in the past, I think that Rocco will start and play Kepler every day if he is not injured even if he continues to hit around .225 with only occasional power. I would be fine with the idea of a truly open competition between Kepler, Larnach, and Gordon for that 3rd outfield starting spot after Buxton/Taylor and Gallo (assuming Kirilloff plays 1B). I just don't think that's what will happen. While there should be a built-in bias towards playing Gordon in LF since he was the most productive of that group last season, I think Rocco's built-in bias will be to play Kepler unless he fails in a big way. That leaves that both Larnach and Gordon fighting for occasional outfield fill in and DH at bats because Michael Taylor is going to play CF when Buxton is the DH or doesn't play. That's just no way to develop younger players. That also leaves us with a good field, poor hit corner outfielder on a team that needs help offensively. Are Gordon or Larnach necessarily going to provide more than Kepler's .225 with occasional power? We won't know that unless they get a chance to play (although Gordon was a lot better than that last year). Yes, Kepler is better with the glove but now that we have Gallo so we have a strong defensive RF. What we need is a bat for the LF spot. Frankly, if we decide to keep Kepler there probably isn't any room for Larnach on the roster in a role that makes sense. It makes no sense to keep him or Gordon as the 26th man getting 10 – 15 plate appearances a week. That one remaining spot should go to someone who is either is a glove 1st utility infielder like Willie Castro or a RH hitting outfielder who excels against LH pitching. Gordon has no options so he'll make the team. Injuries can obviously change everything but as it stands now I think Larnach is a likely odd man out and is probably better served by either going to AAA and waiting for a injury based chance or being traded to another organization. And to be fair, the former may in fact be the revised plan now that Kepler didn't get us much on the trade market: play Kepler in the hope that he either markedly improves with the shift ban and/or becomes tradable at midseason and play Larnach every day at AAA while he waits for his chance. It's not the plan I would use but I do understand that kind of plan.

Agreed. Ober should be the #5 starter for the Twins or the #1 starter for the Saints.

Oh, the humanity! Looks like the classic thing a team would say when they would like to trade a guy and can't get enough value on the market. "We like him and adds value to us". My bet is that they tried to trade him, couldn't get much for him, and have decided to wait and see if the market comes to them through an injury or another team striking out in free agency. We didn't sign Gallo to have him play LF or 1B and then sign Taylor to be the backup CF all so we could put Kirilloff, Gordon and/or Larnach on the bench. We signed them because we thought we cold trade Kepler for MLB value. It looks like we can't get that value so far, so plan B is to use him as part of an OF/1B group and as a backstop in case Kirilloff can't go. The real issue if he stays is whether we play him at the expense of a Larncah, Gordon and/or Kirilloff. We know what Max is - very meh. Are those three better? Gordon was last year by a pretty wide margin, but that's one year. Who knows on Larnach or Kirilloff? One thing we do know is that we won't know on any of those 3 if they don't get to play. And if Kepler stays and Rocco plays him everyday like he has in the past at least 1 or 2 of them won't get to play much. That's my response to those of you who say "we have room, why not keep him", This isn't a cost free decision, there is a real opportunity cost to keeping Kepler on the roster and using thim the way Rocco has in the past. Doing that moves back the development of Larnach and Gordon for yet another year. To me, that's potentially problematic because this team wasn't good enough last year to contend and one of the big problems was the offense, We have to get better and getting someone better than Kepler to play every day in the outfield is an obvious way for us to get better offensive production. We lose that opportunity if we keep him. I'm not saying just give him away, but we should seriously be trying to trade him. My prediction is we do we eventually do so.

Well said. Let's accept Gallo for what he is when he's on - a high strikeout power hitter who will have a good to great OPS because he walks a lot, good fielding OF, runs well. There's room for a guy like that on this team. Not hitting in the 2-5 holes, but 6 or 7. If the last year is what he is, then we cut bait.

Kepler's average is highly unlikely to benefit by 30 points with the shift ban. The Athletic did an article on the effect of the shift and its impact on particular players using Statcast and other data. Kepler was not one of the players likely to heavily benefit, those were Corey Seager and Freddie Freeman types. You know, guys that hit the ball hard into the shift. Conversely, Kepler in 2022 had an average exit velocity (51st percentile), average hard hit rate (49th percentile) and a below average barrel rate (45th percentile). Max's problem isn't so much where he hits them as it is how hard he hits them - lot's of pop ups and soft ground balls. Removing the shift won't help either of those issues. I can't find the Athletic article but I recall that Max should get and extra 6-10 hits a year. Spread out over 525-550 ABS (standard for an everyday player), that's somewhere between 8 and 15 points of batting average, meaning Max might hit .235-.242 instead of his usual about .227. Also, these are by definition ground ball and shorter line drive hits, i.e., singles, so it won't improve his slugging percentage much or help him drive in a lot more runs. You know who might benefit a lot from banning the shift, at least when he doesn't strike out? Joey Gallo. His average exit velocity is in the 63rd percentile, his average hard hit rate is in the 94th percentile, and his average barrel rate is in the 98th percentile. Maybe the Front Office really does have a plan . . .

We're close to a contender. We still need a middle of the order bat and another quality reliever. How do we do this? Here's a radical plan. Four simple steps: 1. Trade Larnach, Ober, and either Salas or Emmanuel Rodriquez to the Pirates for Bryan Reynolds. Add in Martin or Reyes if you have to but then Pittsburg throws in a real A or A+ ball pitching or catching prospect, not filler, especially if you add in Reyes. Reynolds goes to LF every day, hits 3 in the order. The trade for Lopez and the emergence of SWR and Varland allows you to do this. 2. Sign Chafin if you can. If not, sign Fulmer. Bullpen done. 3. Trade Kepler for prospects, AA or lower and prioritize pitching or catching. Target the Yankees, Dodgers, or Cardinals as partners. They all need OFs now to better contend and have realistic hopes to contend. All 3 have decent or better systems. 4. Extend two of Mahle, Lopez, Maeda and Gray to ensure rotation stability. I vote for Lopez and Mahle if they are healthy. Also ok with Gray. Roster is now complete. The OF is Buxton, Gallo, and Reynolds, backed up by Taylor and Gordon. Starting IF is Kirilloff, Polanco, Correa, and Miranda, backed up by Farmer and Gordon. Catchers are Vasquez and Jeffers, Find another UTL for the last spot, maybe Willi Castro to start off with, or a 3rd Catcher. Don't sign a RH 1B/DH only type; get someone versatile. This is a placeholder for Lewis or Lee. Rotation is P Lopez, Gray, Ryan, Mahle and Maeda, with Varland, SWR, Balazovic, and Dobnak in the Saints rotation. BP is Duran, J Lopez, Jax, Chafin/Fulmer, Theilbar, Pagan, Moran, and Alcala, with Coloumbe, Stashak, Sands, and Megill at AAA for fill in duty or as a replacement if someone struggles. Batting order is Polanco, Correa, Reynolds, Buxton, Kirilloff, Miranda, Gallo, Vasquez/Jeffers, Gordon (as DH). This adds a bat for the middle of the order (albeit at a high cost), strengthens the bullpen, and still leaves us with a solid rotation with some depth. Big bet on Kirilloff but 1B could be Miranda with Farmer/Gordon/Lewis/Lee at 3B if Kirilloff doesn't hit or can't stay healthy. What do you guys think?

Here's a radical plan. Four simple steps: 1. Trade Larnach, Ober, and either Salas or Emmanuel Rodriquez to the Pirates for Bryan Reynolds. Add in Martin or Reyes if you have to but then Pittsburg throws in a real A or A+ ball pitching or catching prospect, not filler, especially if you add in Reyes. Reynolds goes to LF every day, hits 3 in the order. The trade for Lopez and the emergence of SWR and Varland allows you to do this. 2. Sign Chafin if you can. If not, sign Fulmer. Bullpen done. 3. Trade Kepler for prospects, AA or lower. Target the Yankees, Dodgers, or Cardinals as partners. They all need OFs now to contend better and have decent systems. 4. Extend two of Mahle, Lopez, Maeda and Gray to ensure rotation stability. I vote for Lopez and Mahle if they are healthy. Also ok with Gray. Roster is now complete. The OF is Buxton, Gallo, and Reynolds, backed up by Taylor and Gordon. Starting IF is Kirilloff, Polanco, Correa, and Miranda, backed up by Farmer and Gordon. Catchers are Vasquez and Jeffers, Find another UTL for the last spot, maybe Willi Castro to start off with, or a 3rd Catcher. Don't sign a RH 1B/DH only type; get someone versatile. This is a placeholder for Lewis or Lee. Rotation is P Lopez, Gray, Ryan, Mahle and Maeda, with Varland, SWR, Balazovic, and Dobnak the Saints rotation. BP is Duran, J Lopez, Jax, Chafin/Fulmer, Theilbar, Pagan, Moran, and Alcala, with Coloumbe, Stashak, and Megill at AAA for fill in duty or as a replacement if someone struggles. Batting order is Polanco, Correa, Reynolds, Buxton, Kirilloff, Miranda, Gallo, Vasquez/Jeffers, Gordon (as DH). This adds a bat for the middle of the order (albeit at a high cost), strengthens the bullpen, and still leaves us with a solid rotation with some depth. Big bet on Kirilloff but 1B could be Miranda with Farmer/Gordon/Lewis/Lee at 3B if Kirilloff doesn't hit or can't stay healthy. What do you guys think?

This. Polanco, Correa, Buxton, Miranda, and either Kirilloff or Larnach should be the top 5 hitters in the lineup, the last 3 in whatever order works (I actually prefer Kirilloff 3, Buxton 4 and Miranda 5). If Miranda is 5, Gallo is 6, LF is 7 (Larnach, Farmer or Kepler), Vasquez 8, and Gordon 9.

This is the conundrum, made even bigger by the presence of Larnach. No problem with keeping Kepler IF he's the 4th OF/defensive sub, hitting 7th or lower when he plays. The problem is that Rocco has been not only playing him every day, he often hits him in the top 6. The issue isn't that Kepler is a bad player. He's not; he's an above average fielder with a below average bat playing a premium offensive position. In other words, he's a below average RF overall. Conversely, Gordon outplayed him last year overall and Larnach has shown real promise. Keeping Kepler and playing him the way Rocco does creates a real lost opportunity cost by not giving that playing time and at bats to a guy who played better last year (Gordon) and a guy who has flashed a much higher upside (Laranch). Why on earth would we do that IF WE ARE TRYING TO GET BETTER as a Team? I want this team to contend THIS YEAR and I think we are close to that mark. The missing links include a better hitting OF than Kepler. I don't dislike the guy and would be fine with him playing 2-3 games a week against RH pitching but you just KNOW that Rocco won't do that. It's time to move on and I think a trade is the only way we can do that.

This is a tough one, and not for baseball reasons. I don’t think there’s any question that the Twins got the better side of the trade from a talent perspective. Pitching is worth more than hitting for average, and starting pitching is worth a lot more. The BTV ratings are very one sided the Twins way. Getting a solid #2 starter and the Marlins #5 prospect is a great return for a high average/OBP guy with no power, no defensive value, and bad knees. Still…. I liked the guy and I’m sorry to see him go. I was hoping they could get Lopez for Kepler and a prospect. Maybe now we trade Kepler for a RH hitting 1B or a solid reliever. I wish we could have kept Arraez but I do understand the trade.

Love the idea but you would have to add at least Larnach to Arraez and Kepler to get López and Luzardo, probably Larnach and a young pitcher like Reyna or Festa. Are you willing to pay that price? BTV says that’s the price to get those two pitchers.

This is the best rationale - why not see if he can get it back and besides, we don’t have anyone else at AAA on the way up to be blocked. I don’t know the minor league system well enough to know if the latter half of that is true. If it is, I guess why not? You have to have a quick finger on the trigger though. Give him 6-8 weeks to show something max.

MLB Trade Rumors is reporting that Blayne Enlow passed through waivers and has been outrighted to AA. I thought he might be part of a trade package or get picked up by a lesser team. Guess the FO knew better than I or many of us here did. I don't like everything they do but you have to give them props when they take a calculated risk and it works out.

This. I strongly disagree with the idea that now that we have Farmer, there is only room for one of Farmer or Gordon on the roster. I think Gordon is now an OF who can play CF as a reserve and who can play in the IF , including SS, if necessary. He versatile, of starting MLB quality if he can repeat last year, and he stays. The OFs on the bubble are Kepler (agree will be traded) and Larnach, Celestino and Wallner. Only one of those last three can stay at best and that's IF Kepler is traded. I think the better play is to sign a RH hitting OF to replace Garlick and platoon with Gordon in LF/DH/1B for this year (Mancini maybe?) and make those latter 3 the starting AAA OF in LF, CF, and RF respectively. Alternatively, we can put Larnach or Wallner is a trade package for a quality SP. Kepler alone won't get us close to that. .

Well, with Garlick being DFA'd today, I wonder if that puts Celestino on the opening day roster for now. I understand that he can play CF (sort of), but I think that Gordon is almost as good so I don't think one keeps Celestino around just for that reason. He could really use a full year's worth of the bats in AAA to improve as a player. As the eternal optimist, I'm hoping that the Garlick DFA signals they have either a trade or potential free-agent deal coming for a right-handed hitting outfielder. Combined with a Kepler trade, hopefully as part of the package to Miami for a pitcher, that would really improve the roster. You essentially have a starting outfield of Buxton, Gallo, and some combination every day of Larnach, Gordon and this new RH hitter. Plenty of at bats to go around there particularly when you realize the DH slot is open for 1 of the outfielders not being used or or whoever of the Miranda/Arraez/Kirilloff group is not playing 1B or 3B that day. So to me, the OF roster on opening day is Buxton, Gallo, Gordon, Larnach, and a new RH hitting OF. Unless there's a trade of Kepler - and I think there will be - the real issue is Kepler vs. Larnach on the roster. For a lot of reasons, I think Larnach is the call and Kepler should be traded even if it is for solid prospects rather than MLB pitching. . Larnach needs MLB ABs, not AAA ABs, at this point he appears to be a better hitter than Kepler when he isn't injured, and he certainly has a higher potential ceiling.

Disagree here. I think this makes it more likely they will deal Kepler. Going "all in" for this team means getting 3 things - (1) another #1 or #2 starter, (2) getting one more good to very good bullpen piece (Chafin or Fulmer come to mind), and (3) getting a big bat to hit #4 behind Arraez, Buxton and Correa. Gallo and Polanco are much more suited to hit #5 or #6 ahead or behind Miranda at the other and the LF or C at 7. Kepler fills none of those needs since he doesn't hit much but he can be a trade piece to accomplish need #1, he can be replaced by Gallo in RF, and LF can be filled internally by Larnach, Gordon, Kirilloff or Wallner. My wishful thinking scenario is the following: - Trade Kepler, Enlow and either Larnach or Wallner plus a MiLB prospect to Miami for Lopez, Luzardo, or Rogers. - Sign Chafin (or Fulmer) for 2 years. Move Maeda to the bullpen and sign him for another 2-3 years to deal with his contract structure that right now pays him a lot more as a starter than as a reliever. - Sign Trey Mancini or even our old friend Nelson Cruz to hit in the middle of the order. Wish there was someone better. 2023 is now looking a lot brighter!

It was reported this morning that the Marlins signed Johnny Cueto to a one year deal with a club option that guarantees him $8.5 million. Why do the Marlins need starting pitching? They need bats. Add in Enlow's DFA, which doesn't make a lot of sense unless he's going to be traded, and a thought emerges - are the Twins and Marlins about ready to do a deal with hitting going from the Twins for pitching from the Marlins? Maybe Kepler, Larnach, and Enlow for Lopez, Luzardo, or Rogers? Anyone hearing or reading anything?

Guys, he’s going to go to the Mets because he wants to go to a team that he thinks will compete for the World Series consistently over the life of his contract. The Mets are willing to spend the money to do that, the Twins aren’t. If the money is roughly the same, I think most of us would go for the team that has a better chance of being a winner. Right now, that’s the Mets.

I’m with Mike. Ryan is showing himself to be a solid, mid-rotation starter, a solid to very good #3. If he improves from there, that’s gravy because we never expected him to be more than that. Realistic expectations on the guy, let’s enjoy the probability of a long-term rotation guy. Very valuable stuff.

Maybe so, but they may have had to go in this order to get Ortega. How's this for a plan (trades vetted through BTV): (1) Trade Kepler, Larnach and DeAndrade to Miami for Luzardo or Lopez, alone or plus a non-40 man prospect. (2) Trade Enlow and Cole Sands to Mets for Guillorme. (3) Sign Mancini as a DH/IB/LF (2 yrs/20m). (4) Sign Kevin Pillar as a 4th/5th OF because he can play CF (1 yr/3m). Otherwise stick with Garlick and Gordon is the backup CF. (5) Sign Andrew Chafin (2yrs/18m) or Michael Fullmer ( 2yrs/6-8m) . Roster: 1b: Arraez/Kiriloff/Mancini 2B: Polanco SS: Guillorme/Farmer 3B: Miranda LF: Gordon/Mancini CF: Buxton RF: Gallo C: Vasquez/Jeffers DH: Arraez/Mancini/Guy taking a "half day off" UTL: Farmer 4th/5th OF: Pillar/Garlick SP: Gray, Lopez/Luzardo, Mahle, Ryan, Ober, Maeda Go with a 6 man rotation and expect 100-120+ pitches per start given the extra rest, Hope for 6-8 innings per start to avoid overtaxing a 7 amn bullpen. Or move Maeda to bullpen. BP: Duran, Lopex, Jax, Alcala, Theilbar, Chafin/Fullmer, Pagan/Moran/McGill/Coloumbe, Maeda if a 5 man rotation. AAA OF is Wallner, Celestino, Martin and Contreras. First 3 get 500 ABS in the minors unless needed for Twins due to injury. Whoever of the Pagan/Moran/McGill/Coloumbe group doesn't make team is in AAA as insurance. Thoughts?

That seems right to me. If I'm Pittsburg or KC or Detroit, why not give him a shot? That's why I wonder if this isn't part of a grander strategy that will let the Twins either pull him back or make him part of a trade. I just don't know the rules well enough to know if that's a realistic option.

It strikes me that the DFA for Enlow is a calculated move based on the idea that other teams will be hesitant to spend a 40 man spot on him when he wasn't very effective coming off of TJ Surgery last year. I do have one question. I understand that the DFA means we have to trade or waive Enlow in the next 7 days. Let's say we make a trade in those 7 days say, Kepler plus others on the 40 man to say, Miami, where we get less players for the 40 man then we give up and now have an open 40 man spot. Kepler and Larnach for Lopez, for example. Can we return Enlow to the 40 man in that spot? What if the trade doesn't become "official" until after he's claimed on waivers? How about if a spot opens up by moving a player to the 60 day IL? What if Enlow is going to be part of a trade that will go down in the next 7 days. Does the new team have to DFA him or do they just add him to their 40 man roster? Just curious. Just thinking out loud that this may be a move in conjunction with something else coming that would allow the Twins to pick up Ortega and later pull back Enlow because a spot is going to open up.