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Everything posted by LA Vikes Fan

  1. LA Vikes Fan
    Simple as that. Nothing else to see here.
  2. LA Vikes Fan
    I could see Larnach or Gordon getting traded but I doubt it's in a package for a MLB starting pitcher. I think it's a lot more likely that they get traded for someone farther down in a struggling organization like Oakland who has at least two options left, maybe an A ball pitching type. Gordon will go if we sign Taylor or Duvall (Pham makes no sense) and Larnach may go as the season wears on.
  3. LA Vikes Fan
    I'd agree with you if we were talking about any of the 3 guys who came up last year and stuck, Kirilloff, Lee, or even Martin. The problem is that Miranda isn't just a guy with one pretty good year and one horrific year, he's coming off of shoulder surgery and his comments suggest he may still be hurting. Too many red flags for me to take a chance out of the gate. He's got to start in AAA and show something first. You are right that if he does hit well at AAA to start out the season, this FO has a bad habit of keeping underperforming veterans over up and coming young players once the vets are signed. I would love to change that but am not hopeful. Still, injuries tend to provide opportunities so I think it's more likely than not that Miranda will get a chance this year IF he performs in AAA.
  4. LA Vikes Fan
    Assuming we can't or don't get a SP, I'm with Stringer - pay MAT $6-8m, trade Gordon for an A ball lottery ticket or two, and be done. MAT provides excellent CF defense and can play every day if (when) Buxton winds up hurt or only able to DH. IF Buxton can give us 100 games in CF, that still leaves 62 for Taylor. It's probably more of an 80 game need or even more. Taylor can also play LF against LH pitching, play late inning defense, and pinch run. Duvall is old, a lousy CF, and strikes out 30% plus of the time. Soler is too expensive and can't play defense at all. Pham is older, not much of a CF, and not someone to mess with in your fantasy league. Martin isn't yet ready and there will be an injury opened spot by mid-season if he's ready then. Same for Keirsey. Taylor can give us what we need on a 1 year deal, do it if we can.
  5. LA Vikes Fan
    I'll put a number to my thinking - 88 wins. Better bullpen, lesser rotation, lineup about even. Lineup balances losing Polanco and the possible dreaded "sophomore slump" from Lewis, Julien, and Wallner, plus last year being possible career years for Kepler, Castro, and Jeffers on the negative side with probable better years from Correa and Buxton, the addition of Santana, more ABS for Lewis, Julien, and Wallner if they don't slump, and better health and production from Kirilloff, Gordon, and Miranda on the positive side. Add in improvements in Detroit, KC, and even Cleveland, and I see us right about where we were last year. I added 1 win because I'm an optimist by nature.
  6. LA Vikes Fan
    I think the difference is Santana's track record suggests (doesn't guarantee) that he will be a roughly .750 OPS guy with very good or better defense next year. Miranda, on the other hand, might be the 2022 version, might be the 2023 version, might soar above the crowd, or might fall off the table in terms of performance. Or... he might be still injured and not worth much this year. I like Miranda and I think he is part of the core moving forward. I just don't think he will establish that until the second half of this year at the earliest. I want MLB depth being consistent players not players with a wide variety of potential outcomes. The unknowns can start in AAA and show us the money. IF Miranda does that, THEN he can come up and displace someone. Let's not bet on that up front. besides, with injuries being what they are, he'll get his chance at some point and probably by June if he performs in AAA.
  7. LA Vikes Fan
    Good analysis, Stringer. The more I look at Santana the more he looks like the classic "reliable vet" signing to help a youngish contending team get over the hump. He's steady while not spectacular at the plate, plays very good to elite defense, and hits well in RBI producing and late game situations. He's the kind of guy that can hit 4 or 5 in the order (news flash, we need one of those). Most importantly, he can help take the pressure off of the younger guys just finding their legs at the MLB level. Count me as one who likes this signing for reasons other than just the stats he brings. The Twins this year are dependent on three very young guys in the field (Lewis, Julien, and Wallner), and two in the rotation (Ryan and Ober) to perform at a high level. Odds are that at least one or two of them will not be as good this year as last. Having steady vets helps the young guys play better. I think Santana will help the team in ways that don't translate well to the stat sheet and I think we need that. Now only if we could get a steady veteran starter to pitch in the number 2 slot . . .
  8. LA Vikes Fan
    The long-term play should be for Lewis or Kirilloff to move to LF, Wallner to RF, and Brooks Lee to come up and play 2B or 3B, Julien to 1B if Lee plays 2B and Lewis 3B. In other words, some combination where Julien, Lewis, Kirilloff, and Lee handle the 2B, 3B, 1B, and LF spots on a daily basis. That's post 2024 though, certainly no earlier than after the ASB this year. That short term play that could move that timeline up if we can trade Max plus a not top 10 prospect or two for a young starting pitcher with #2/3 upside like a Miller or Woo from Seattle, Luzardo from Miami, etc. The pitching market is so hot and overvalued that I just don't think that's even close to possible. Bottom line is Max is here for 2024, probably hitting in the 4-6 slots. I'm ok with that unless they can trade him for pitching.
  9. LA Vikes Fan
    There's an article on ESPN ranking all the MLB farm system by "empirical surplus dollar value", whatever that is. The Twins are ranked as #9. That's a little bit higher than I would have expected and the ranking does not appear to include the Seattle prospect we just got in the Polanco trade, at least he is not mentioned. They do mention Lee, Martin, Festa, Canterino, and Cory Lewis as guys at upper levels who could make an impact this year or next, and Rodriguez and Raya as guys who could make an impact in the second half of 2024. I thought you guys might find this interesting. Here's the link: https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/39437646/top-30-mlb-farm-systems-prospects-list-2024-kiley-mcdaniel-cubs-orioles-tigers-padres it is behind the ESPN+ pay wall so I apologize if not everyone can access this. It will eventually get to the regular site. I get access to this because of the Disney Plus subscription my wife made us get to give my grandson something to watch when he comes over.
  10. LA Vikes Fan
    Ryu is an interesting call. I guess he had TJ surgery in June 2022 and threw 52 late season innings for the Blue Jays last year in 11 starts. 3.46 ERA, 4.91 FIP, 1.288 WHIP. Baseball reference projects him for a 6-5, 4.40 ERA over 88 innings as a starter this coming season. Spotrack gives him a "value" of $8.1m a year. He'll be 37 this year. I've read that the Yankees have interest in him as rotation depth. Would he be worth a 1 year, $8-10m deal? How about a 2 year $15-17m deal? Could be a good pairing with Paddack - 200 or so innings between the 2 of them. Might make sense on a 1 year deal if we can't get good RH bat. And to me, a good RH bat is Soler, Duvall, or maybe Pham. Not Merrifield, MAT, or Solano (love Solano but no power and age 36, hard to see a repeat, same for Taylor at age 33). Here's an interesting thought - Sign Ryu, fill the 80-100 games Buxton can't play CF with Castro and /or Martin or Keirsey and rotate Buxton, Kirilloff, Lewis, Farmer, Julien, Larnach, Wallner, etc. through the DH spot. Would rather have a good RH bat (Plan A) but I think this is a decent Plan C. FWIW, my Plan B is a trade for a youngish starter using prospects other than Jenkins or Lee. I don't think we are going to bee able to pull off Plans A or B so C is at least another option.
  11. LA Vikes Fan
    Good point. It's one of the reasons I think Soler is a better fit - strikeout rates of around 24-25% rather than over 30%. They both have pluses and minuses - Soler is a bit of a butcher in the field - but on balance I think Soler is the better fit. He's also more expensive at more like $12-15m a year instead of $5-8m a year, I'd be ok with either one on a 2 year or less deal. Ig that can't happen, I say let's go with what we got and spend out money on a pitcher like Michael Lorenzen.
  12. LA Vikes Fan
    What about Adam Duvall at 2 years/$12-16m total? He's older but still hitting and can play CF some and has played 1B in the past. Over .750 OPS 6 of the last 7 years and over .800 last year in Boston. Probably more of a .750 OPS guy outside of Fenway. Not great but would seem to fit our needs. Would be good on a 1-year deal but what I read is he's holding out for a 2-year deal. I like Soler short term, but he wants 3 years and I just don't think that's a smart gamble.
  13. LA Vikes Fan
    I looked at Cron's stats and they are scary. Look at his OPS in Colorado 2021- first half of 2023. His OPS went from .905 to .789 to .723. Then he got traded to the Angels for whom he had a .519 OPS in 54 plate appearances (admittedly a SSS). He's now 33. Looks like a guy who's fading at the end of his career with that career possibly elongated by playing at Coors field. I don't think he would be a good add.
  14. LA Vikes Fan
    Really interesting and it puts the Polanco trade into a greater perspective. It looks like there is more to DeSclafani that can be "unlocked" and makes him a better candidate to become more of a mid-rotation starter. He also has a track record of that level of success in years past although he was not good last year. Of course, none of us know if the Twins can unlock the potential but they have had some success with that in the past so this makes this a reasonable gamble. Look, I'm like everybody else. I somehow convinced myself that trading Polanco would get us a young starter with a high ceiling. As a result, I was a little less than thrilled with the trade when it was announced yesterday. I with the benefit of a good night sleep and a better understanding of what DeSclafani can be, I'm starting to like the trade more and more. We got a quality reliever in Topa, a possibly backend to mid rotation starter, a top 100 prospect and a pitching lottery ticket. That's a pretty darn good return for an aging second baseman who hits well and is a good leader but has significant injury issues. I love what Polanco did as a Twin and wish he could be that same guy forever but that's not the way the world works. Given our surplus at the position and our needs, this trade actually addresses what we had to get. I'm beginning to like it more and more
  15. LA Vikes Fan
    I haven't seen the word "transmogrify" used in a sentence since the old "Calvin and Hobbes" comic strip. They had an overturned cardboard box they called the "transmogrifier" which changed things in a magical way. Excellent use of vocabulary. I agree on Ober. I do see him a solid #3 with #2 potential. Frankly, same thinking on Ryan for different reasons. Their improvement looks like the only way to replace Gray's contribution.
  16. LA Vikes Fan
    This. The roster actually looks pretty competitive, even playoff competitive, as long as no one gets hurt and only one or two have a bad year/regress. The issue at this point is a lack of depth to withstand injury and poor performance, particularly on the pitching side. There is plenty of time to get more depth. Quality depth players aren't the "big name FAs", they are the Donovan Solano type in the field and the Ryu, Clevinger, Lorenzen (even Odorizzi) types on the mound. Get one of those depth starting pitchers or, even better, trade from surplus like Polanco and get a young(ish) starter and we're good to start the season. I've also come around to the idea that signing a Rys Hoskins or similar guy is not the way to go. The division is still weak so we have time and leeway. We need to see what we have in Kirilloff and Miranda. In the OF, don't sign Soler or Grichuk even if we trade Kepler (unlikely IMO). Instead, let's play Martin, Larnach, Kiersey and Prato. See what we have. Let's see if we can build a young foundation around the diamond like Houston did after bottoming out. Let's not try to patch "holes" with short term vets until we know that they are holes. I'd love to see us ending the season with Julien, Lewis, Wallner, Varland, Paddack, Funderburk, Kirilloff, Miranda, and at least one of the OFs I mentioned as "established" quality MLB players. It doesn't have to be all of them; it can be 75%-80%. We can project at the trade deadline whether or not we are going to get there. If we do that, then we know where the holes and then we patch.
  17. LA Vikes Fan
    interesting, but there's no way Kirilloff can hit in the #4 hole based on past performance. I understand wanting a left-handed hitter there to break up the right-handed hitters and to avoid a slew of LH hitters in the 5-8 spots. The problem is that none of the LH hitters are good enough to hit #4 other than the second half 2023 Kepler and who knows if that's ever coming again. Also, you cannot have Lewis hit 7. The difference between each spot in the order is 15 to 18 plate appearances a season (150 game base). The difference between #3 and #7 spots in the order is 60 to 90 plate appearances a season. You can't give those to Kirilloff over Lewis. Has to be the other way around. Here's a thought about what I would do (he says throwing it out there and waiting for the probably justified criticism) Julien Polanco Lewis Buxton Correa Kirilloff/Miranda Kepler Jeffers Wallner
  18. LA Vikes Fan
    His contract is too expensive to make him worth anything in trade, especially given his decline and the real injury risk. Hard no for me. I would much rather sign Michael Lorenzen, James Paxton, or even Brad Keller for depth.
  19. LA Vikes Fan
    I am tempted by the possibility of a Julien/Miranda 1B tandem with Polanco at 2B backed up by Farmer. I actually think that's the best lineup based on what players have actually done so far as compared to draft pedigree or potential. The issue is that leaves Kirilloff with no place to play unless he moves to LF, with Kepler or Wallner in RF and the other one traded. Kirilloff hasn't actually done much so far in his career but the potential seems to be there. I think the Twins will give him at least one more year to show he can be an everyday player before making any drastic move with him. That probably means him playing 1B unless they trade a corner OF for pitching, Wallner falls on his face, or Kepler goes back to the good field, no hit 2020-2022 Kepler.
  20. LA Vikes Fan
    Arraez was an established MLB high average high OPS hitter when he was traded. Julien is at best the 2019 Arraez, an intriguing guy who might just be a high average high OPS guy but who is at least a year from proving that to be the case. You also have to add in two things. First, pitching is worth more than hitting on the trade market because of scarcity, especially starting pitching. Second, Julien hit great even Arraez like in June and July, he didn't hit much at all in August or September. Which guy will he be in 2024 forward? I'd bet he's the June and July guy but I sure wouldn't trade for him at a price based on that assumption. A guy like Julien is very intriguing and worth an equally intriguing pitcher like Miller, Woo, or Hancock. He isn't yet worth a solid, established starting pitcher like Gilbert or Logan. He just isn't.
  21. LA Vikes Fan
    I agree. I do hope that both will exceed those projections and I think they have to in order to an above average hitting 1B. I think they can improve on defense too, but improvement gets them from below average to average, not above average. 1B is an issue for the 2024 Twins. I just don't think the team will pay the freight for a Hoskins type guy, or even Jorge Soler, I think we're going to take our chances and hope one of them breaks out at the plate and improves on defense. It might be painful for a few weeks.
  22. LA Vikes Fan
    I'm really hoping and almost expecting that Lee will be ready and on the MLB roster by midseason. Having said that, we all need to pump the brakes on Lee a little bit because he hasn't yet shown he can hit AAA pitching or Spring Training MLB pitching. he had a .731 OPS in AAA last year and hit under .200 in ST last year - .159/,213/.205 (.418) in 44 ABs to be precise. 44 is more more ABs than most guys get in ST so you can tell the Twins were trying to get a read on his readiness. He's much better than that and will be a good player at least when he develops but he hasn't developed yet. Let's wait until he has at least a solid Spring Training and some good AAA weeks before trying to find a way to cram him on the roster. I think the best case scenario is he has a solid ST and 2-3 months of .750 plus OPS work in St. Paul, someone gets hurt, traded, or just is ineffective, and then he comes up. To me, the more likely scenario is that he debuts in July or August and is in consideration for a regular job in 2025. We don't need to make machinations to get Brooks lee on the 26 man roster yet for the simple reason that he hasn't earned it. I would be worried if the Twins go into 2024 counting on someone with his current track record as a regular contributor on the MLB roster. We're better than that. He'll get his shot but he has to earn it first.
  23. LA Vikes Fan
    That actually makes sense if you look at what the two players have actually done as compared to perceived value and potential upside. Miranda actually had a season in 2022 with roughly 500 PAs (483) and an OPS+ of 114. Kirilloff has not, despite 3 years of opportunity, because of all of the injuries. Hard to project Kirilloff as a 500+ plate appearance guy when he's never been able to be close to that before. By the way, Baseball Reference projects 2024 performance as Kirilloff with 375 PAs, 337 ABs and a .264/.331/.427(.758) slash line. Miranda is projected at 324 PAs, 296 ABs with a .257/.318/.409 (.727) slash. Totals 699 PAs with 634 ABs - that's about 1 player playing all 162 games (162 games x 4.2 PAs per game is 688.8 PAs). Sounds about right to me on both. There's your 1B tandem for 2024 on a basic platoon with a little DH time thrown in.
  24. LA Vikes Fan
    Let's be real guys, Julien alone doesn't get you Kirby or Gilbert. He should get us Woo or Miller plus a A or AA prospect ranked 20-30 in the Mariners system, or Hancock plus two prospects. If Polanco is the bait, getting Woo, Miller, or even Hancock is Polanco plus a real prospect (10-25 in the Twins system), plus an A ball guy minimum. Kirby or Gilbert requires Julien plus a top 10 prospect like Lee. i would trade Polanco plus Festa or Raya (plus someone else not in the top 20) for Woo or Miller. Don't want to trade Julien given his OBP and his years of control. Gilbert and Kirby are waaaay out of our price range unless we are willing to trade Lewis or both Julien and Lee or someone like Lee plus a lower level prospect. I'm not willing to do that.
  25. LA Vikes Fan
    These are all nice fantasy gets but only Brebbia seems in the realm of possibility UNLESS signing them is part of making other moves. Stroman (projected 15-18m a year for 3 plus years) - too expensive for a guy who only pitches 140 innings a year who seems to be on the decline. Not happening. DuVall - too old, too strikeout prone, and too expensive at a projected $8m a year. A little better than M. Taylor but twice the price. Only a fit if his price comes pretty far down and there isn't any reason that it will. On the other three, Hoskins ($20m a year, prob multiple years?) could be an interesting get IF we trade Kepler and Polanco for pre-FA/pre-arbitration assets to even out the salaries. Means Kirilloff moves to LF, Wallner to RF and Hoskins plays 1B and hits 4 or 5. I kind of like it; would be happy if we did this and got some decent pitching assets for Polanco and Kepler. Soler ($12-15m a year, multiple years) is a possibility but only if Polanco or Kepler is traded to give room for the roughly 12-15m a year salary. and we are willing to commit to at least 2 years. He would have to play LF (poorly) to get him into the lineup and would Strike Out a lot, so bigger risk/lesser reward than Hoskins but still in the "interesting, I can see the logic there" range. Brebbia is the most interesting on the fit. He is projected to get $5M + in his last arb year in 2024 and will then be a FA. A little pricey but I could see it as a stand alone. BTW, thanks for the thought process and the article. Fun for us armchair GMs even if disagree with your ideas. Keep them coming.
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