LA Vikes Fan

I've read that Lorenzen wants a minimum 2 year deal and that's why he hasn't yet signed. I'm not sure I would sign him for multiple years. Plus, the Yankees and White Sox are already talking to him. My guess is that Varland is the #5 and the Twins sign a starter they can stash in AAA. Think Brad Keller, Jaime Barria, Eric Lauer, etc....

Well I guess we can close up this thread. DeSclafani going to Il and it looks like it may be a significant injury. Could be a TJ surgery on the horizon.

Clevinger's not what we need, but we do need a starter. I'd rather have someone we can stash in AAA as the 6th starter so Varland can be in the rotation from the get go. Too bad Jake Odorrizzi already got signed. There will be a spot for whoever we sign, if we do, at some point this year. Brad Keller maybe?

Really? I thought we got a solid back end reliever with a 2.61 ERA and 1.145 WHIP in 2023 and a borderline Top 100 prospect, along with an oft injured starting pitcher and an A ball flier, in return for one year of an oft injured bat first, poor fielding second baseman with a consistent 115 OPS+? Let's see, Topa's WAR last year - 1.6. Polanco's WAR last year - 2.0. Add in the top 100 prospect and it seems like a fair deal to me. Sure, Topa may be a one year wonder and Polanco may have a career renaissance at age 30 plus. Gonzalez is a top 100 prospect on some lists and not on others - BA: NR | MLB: 79 | ATH: 96 | BP: NR, and sure, he may be in the Show in 2 years or working at McDonalds. I love me some Jorge Polanco but I think you guys have to recognize that his career arc from here is likely down, not up, and that's assuming he's healthy enough to play more than 100 games. He's been a great Twin in the past. Not so likely in the future. He was expendable with the breakout year from Julien and the development of Lee. Why didn't we get a mid rotation established starter or a high upside young starter for Polanco? Because he isn't worth it at this stage of his career. I hope Jorge has a great season and makes the All Star team. Hell, I hope he plays 120 games. But let's not overrate who he is and what he's worth. And let's not use him to take pot shots at the front office for making a trade from surplus to get the necessary bullpen help and a real upside prospect.

Very helpful, thanks. I vote that DeSclafani goes on the 60 day IL, and uses the full 30 day ramp up period in St. Paul to be ready to pitch in Minnesota on about June 1. Varland in the rotation until then we'll see where we are on June 1. .

Louis Varland just went four innings, one hit, in his last spring training start. He has gone 11 innings in 4 appearances, 3 starts, and is given up a total of six hits and no runs. He's got 11 strikeouts, one walk, a spring training WHIP of 0.64, and an ERA of 0.00. I know spring training statistics are not necessarily predictive but you do have to ask yourself what a guy has to do to make the team. His primary competition, Anthony DeSclafani, has yet to pitch an inning in spring training. He is allegedly "ramping up" his bullpens but that's as far as he's gotten given what I think was shoulder pain (may have been elbow or forearm) at the beginning of spring training. You have to think that Varland has won a spot in the starting rotation with his performance. Prediction: DeSclafani opens up the season on the Injured List. Varland opens up the season as the fifth starter and the Twins have all five starters pitching. There are no skipped starts due to off days. DeSclafani comes off the IL in 10 days, and then goes to AAA for the full 20 day rehab period to build up innings. At that point, there is a decision to be made but past history tells us that someone will be ineffective or need an IL stint to give DeSclafani a spot. It may be a bullpen spot if all of the starters are pitching well but I suspect there will be a spot. What do you guys think? Question: Given DeSclafani's issues in spring training, he me need a longer Il stint than 10 days but probably doesn't need the full 60 days. Is there another option? Alternatively, if the only choices are a 10 day or 60 day IL designation, if we put him on the 60 day list can he come back sooner and pitch in the minors? In other words, could he be put on the 60 day list and thus off the 40 man roster, but come back to AAA in say 30 days and spend a month building back up? I know a lot of you guys know the rules really well so I'm curious because that seems to me to be the smart move. He's then ready around June 1 and by then we will be in need of another starter if for no other reason than Paddack will need a break. More likely, one of the top five will either be hurt or ineffective. Anybody know the answer?

Good question. I don't know. I'll start a thread so we can discuss since this one is for the Spring Breakout Game.

You're right. DeSclafini opens the year on the 10 day IL, then takes the full 20 day rehab period in AAA to work up his inning load. Varland is the 5th starter out of the gate and if he pitches well, an interesting decision awaits. Frankly, an injury or ineffectiveness probably makes the decision but this could be fun to watch.

I agree, and I think his window could close fast. There is a lot of internal competition and external solutions are not hard to find for a 1B/DH with a poor glove. Miranda looked like a solid MLB hitter in 2022, and has looked healthy and is hitting in ST. He isn't a great 1B but frankly probably as good or better than Kirilloff. Larnach is in a make or break situation and could transition to IB. Brooks Lee could force the issue this year by tearing up AAA and if Kirilloff isn't hitting or is hurt again, you could easily see Lee coming up to play 2B and Julien moving over to 1B. Stevenson and Severino look like guys who should get a MLB shot soon. I think Kirilloff' s biggest worry should be Miranda and Lee. I think Miranda is the hitter we saw in 2022 and Lee is less than a full season away from being ready. Kirilloff doesn't have the glove to hold either Miranda or Julien off at 1B on the defensive side so he has to hold them off at the plate. Another injury and he could be Wally Pipped by either Miranda or Lee (with Julien moving to 1B). Unfortunately, I don't think Kirilloff is worth much more in trade than a B/B+ prospect with his injury history so that route doesn't make a lot of sense right now. I hope he comes out firing.

Because Polanco isn't worth a quality starter unless you include high end prospects like Lee, JRod, Festa, or guys like that. Same for Kepler. Aging guys who can hit well and field some (Polanco) or field well and hit some (Kepler) aren't worth a #2, #3, or even a young #4 starter. They're worth what we got - a quality reliever, an older back-end starter and prospects. The Twins weren't willing to trade their good young prospects so they couldn't trade for a good young starter. We'll see if that changes at the trade deadline.

Agreed. It all depends on Kirilloff's defense. He presently is a decent, not good or great, decent, bat for a 1B. He is not good defensively. Defense matters for a team with deep playoff run aspirations. His error against the Astros in Game 2 was very significant for the outcome of that series. He either needs to improve defensively so his current bat plays or he needs to hit at more of an .850 plus OPS clip to carry his glove as a part time 1B, part time DH. Improvement in both is really what he needs to do to become an everyday player. I sympathize with his injury history. Having said that, he's 26, not 23-24. He breaks through this year he's a part of the core. If he doesn't and Lee does, he's out of a position, probably not part of the core going forward, and becomes trade bait. the sports (and business) worlds can be cruel. I hope he really breaks out and he can be part of the next 5 Twins teams. I think he has this year to show that and it's not starting out well in ST on the glove side. If he doesn't get off to a good start soon, it wouldn't surprise me if he got traded to a non-playoff team or to one hurting for offense (think Miami) as part of a package for pitching.

I think the impact of the younger guys getting experience shouldn't be understated. Both Julien and Wallner had high SO rates last year. One would expect those rates to go down with experience. Wallner needs to make some adjustments since he was SO prone at the end of the year. Juline needs to learn where the MLB strike zone is bigger than the robot zone at AAA and he'll take fewer called strikes. I would expect both of them to shave 2-5% off of their SO ratees, possibly the same for Lewis and Kirilloff. That alone when added to the replacement of Taylor and Gallo with Santana and Margot should really help.

I don't agree with USAFChief on this one. I think the plan was to trade Polanco for a starter but they couldn't get a good one since Polanco is older and has an injury history. They pivoted to getting a reliever - Topa - and a good prospect with risk and upside in Gonzalez. I think Seattle also was looking to move DeSclafani's salary and the Twins were looking to add starter depth so the moved him to MN and threw in Bowen so the Twins would pay some of his salary.. To me, that's a salary dump that happened to fit the Twins' need for SP depth. The Twins wanted to trade Polanco for a young starter with upside but couldn't so they settled for a high upside prospect, a (sort of) established late inning reliever, and a lottery pick. Getting a possible back end starter was a nice add on but not critical to the trade.

Agreed. The trade was really Polanco for Topa and Gonzalez with DeSclafani thrown in essentially for almost free with others paying 2/3 of his salary. Bowen was the classic even it out lottery ticket guy. DeSclafani is gone after 2024 unless he reverts to 2021 form (and then he's likely someone else's FA pickup). The elbow injury sounds ominous but let's not pretend that he was a key part of the Polanco trade. I hate to see anyone get hurt but I wouldn't be unhappy at all if Varland got some real run in the rotation out of the gate. On another note, with the DeSclafani elbow issue and Varland's possible ascension, do we need another veteran "break glass in case of emergency" type starter to stash in AAA? I think we might. I'm not thrilled by SWR or Dobnack as the next guy in line in case of injury. How about Jake Odorizzi? I don't know, but I would think he's take a minor league deal with an opt out. Or maybe Michael Lorenzen on a one year deal if he'd take it with Varland back at AAA? I'd really think about Lorenzen. I know he's been injured but I would be interested to see if Odorizzi has anything left.

I agree. I also think it's very important for the Twins to make sure that Kirilloff gets 450-500 ABs this year and at least 75 games at 1B. This is the most unsettled position we have other than the #2 starter. Santana is at most a 1 year stop gap. We need to find out this year, not next year this year, whether we can whether we have a long term 1B in AK, or whether we need to work on Miranda or get a FA to cover the position going forward. We look pretty set most everywhere else to have a contending team for the next 5 years or so. We need to set this spot with who we have or get someone else for next season and beyond. We need to figure out by July if the right side of the IF is AK and Julien. If it's not, we need to pivot to Julien and Lee, Miranda and Julien, or some other combination that we can trot out there from 2025-28 (after which we lose control over Lewis, Ryan, and Ober). We're close. Let's finish the building job. 500 plus ABs this year for AK, Julien, Wallner, and Lewis and 400 plus for Jeffers, unless they completely bomb. 25-30 starts for Ryan and Ober. 20 plus starts for Varland and Paddack. 200-250 ABs for Martin, same for Miranda if we can find a spot. Find out if Larnach can hit MLB pitching or find a way to keep Kepler around for 2-3 more years. Get in the playoffs and win at least a series or two. Figure out who of this group is in your core going forward with Correa, Lopez, and Buxton, augment as necessary over the winter, and compete for a title in 2025 if we can't get there this year. Get to the ALDS or better this year if you can but be sure to be in a position to have a real shot at getting to the ALCS or better in 2025-2028 by establishing your core.

I think this is the best analysis despite all of the hysteria. I understand the issue of blocking prospects like Varland (good example, he may really be MLB ready), and Martin (hasn't shown yet but may be MLB ready by mid-season, I think needs more time in AAA). Yet I think the Twins are contenders and that's why a guy like Margot makes a lot more sense than Martin. With respect to the prospects, I think we have to recognize where the Twins are as a team. We supposedly are division favorites and I think contenders to go deep in the playoffs. Manuel Margot fits well as a 4th OF on that team. If, on the other hand your view is that the Twins might win the division since its fairly weak but are really a pretender in the playoffs, then Margot makes a lot less sense; it would make more sense to give those ABs to a guy that you wanted ready to go when we are really ready to contend like Martin. So, pick your contention window. If it's open this year, Margot is the right choice. If that window doesn't open until 2025 or 2026, play Martin. BTW, the thing that should tip the balance on the trade is the prospect swap. Doncon looks as good or better than Miller, but who knows? I think we do know that its at least a close call.

Unless you are tied to the defense as paramount, these stats tell me you have a good platoon. Ak has an .858 OPS against RH pitching, Santana a .727. Against LH pitching, Santana is .807, AK .482. Yes, Santana is much better in the field but you have to acknowledge the possibility that AK could improve in the field with time and reps at age 26, whereas Santana is likely to regress both at the plate and in the field at age 38. Looks to me like the plan is clear: Ak starts against RH starters, Santana against LH starters and they pinch hit for each other when the bullpen changes sides. Santana is the late inning defensive replacement. I think it works well for this year.

I agree. Trading Kirilloff makes sense as part of a package for Jesus Lazardo or somebody of that talent, age range, and potential. It would make no sense to trade him for another DeSclafini or similar back end veteran starter. And it would make even less sense to trade him for prospects to "open up " a spot for Brooks Lee, a guy with great potential but who hasn't even conquered AAA yet. I don't think Kirilloff is enough to get us a quality youngish starter with control and I don't think the FO will want to add a lot of talent in a package with him. I think he stays with the team and I think he is the primary 1B, with Santana getting at bats against left-handed starters, some DH time, and some late inning defensive replacement time. As I've said many times before, this is the year where you play Kirilloff, Julien, Lewis, and Wallner everyday, play Jeffers 60% of the time, pitch Ryan and Ober every fifth day, and get Varland at least 20 starts.. You need to see if those guys can be the core going forward. This is the year to find that out because the Tigers, Royals, and Guardians are getting better but still are a ways off. This is the year you can give away a few games to useful inexperience and still win the division. That may not be true again starting next year.

How about Robbie Grossman as the RH OF pickup? Can't play CF (or LF for that matter) but a 158 OPS+ last year against LH pitching, I would rather have about 6 guys other than him, but here's thought that he fits the Twins: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/

I fall in between Fatbat and Fire Dan Gladden. At this point, you cannot say with any assurance that this year's team is weaker or stronger than last year. Why? Because the two keys are (1) the health of 3 critical players who had down or missed years in 23 due to injuries - Correa, Buxton, and Paddack, and (2) the continued high performance of 4 guys who were either rookies or came out of nowhere last year - Lewis, Julien, Wallner and yes, Kepler. The only givens are that the starting rotation is weaker and the bullpen is stronger probably by about an equal amount. If the 3 guys listed coming back from injury perform closer to their historic expectations and everything else is the same - we are better this year. If those 3 are the same as last year, we are worse because there is less supporting depth at AAA - they're all in the bigs. If the 4 revelations from last year continue as they did or even improve, we are definitely better and could be a lot better. If the revelations all hit sophomore slumps while Kepler returns to 2021-22, we are definitely worse and things could get ugly quickly. I think we'll be better because I think all 3 reclamations will perform substantially better than last year, and because the last 2 will be more available, and I think at least two of the 4 revelations will be as good or better and playing full seasons. My money is on Lewis and Julien. I'm an optimist by nature so I'm happy with our chances. If 5 or 6 of those 7 crap out (or Lopez gets hurt) though, we will be worse and could be a lot worse.

Agreed. Lee's likely initial spot is as Farmer's replacement. To do that, he needs to improve as a RH hitter. AAA time is necessary.

Guys, I live in LA and went through the "fun" with Bauer. Reading the almost daily media coverage about the statements from Bauer and his accuser and all of the alleged evidence left one with a very low opinion of both people. Perhaps more relevant to the debate about bringing him back to pitch on the Twins, I think it's interesting that when he could come back the Dodgers chose not to bring him back even though they were pretty desperate for starting pitching at the time due to injuries and had real WS aspirations. There was also a rumor that the Dodgers polled the players about bringing him back and the players were almost uniformly against him returning to the team. You never know how much of that were the allegations or whether he was a bad teammate (a rumor that has always followed him) but that strikes me as fairly revealing. Could Bauer help the team as a picture on the field? Absolutely. Is it worth it for the publicity and the chance he will cause issues in what is a pretty close knit clubhouse? IMO, no and it's not even a very close call.

This makes a lot of sense to me. Assume we get 180 innings from Lopez and a combined 300 innings from Ryan and Ober. We need 375-400 inning from a combination of Paddack, DeSclafani and ...... at least 2 more guys. That's why you can't make Varland a reliever. We will need a minimum of 75 innings from him starting at the MLB level and that's if we get 300 from Paddack and DeSclafani. The latter seems highly unlikely. It seems a whole lot more likely that we'll get 200 or so MLB starting innings from Paddack and DeSclafani, will need 120 or so from Varland, and another 50-75 from a combination of SWR, Canterino, Dobnak, or whatever other young guys show at AAA (Festa?), or whatever flotsam and jetsam we sign and stash at AAA. So to me, that's why Varland HAS to stay as a starter who begins the year in AAA (since we can't send DeSclafani there), AND we can and should sign another MLB guy like Lorenzen or even Thor, or one who will take a MiLB contract with an opt out like Odorizzi, Jamie Barria, or even Danny Duffy. We're going to need them.

Agreed. There just wasn't much on the SP FA market and the prices a very inflated. Heck, Sonny Gray got 75M over three years guaranteed at age 34. Building out the bullpen is a smart pivot for a team short on starting pitching. I don't think we're looing at a lot of 4-5 inning starting, but we are looking at starts where guys are pulled at the first sign of trouble after the 5th except for Lopez. That's ok by me.

This "logjam" may be much more theoretical than real at the current time. We are well stocked at the MLB level if you assume that Kirilloff, Lewis and Julien remain healthy and that none suffers a sophomore slump. We need to keep in mind with Julien in particular that while he hit well in June and July, he had a .638 OPS in August and a low batting average in September, albeit with a .838 OPS because he walked a lot. Kirilloff has not consistently hit in hit MLB ABs, potentially but not assuredly due to injury. Regression is a real possibility here for both or they may settle in at an average or below level. Lewis is less likely to regress based on past experience but has had serious injury risk. One injury or one regression and all of a sudden Brooks Lee is in the majors with a clear path to playing time. Speaking of Brooks Lee, he has not yet shown that he can hit AAA pitching at a dominant level in a hitter friendly league, much less that he can hit MLB pitching. He had a .841 OPS in AA, but only a .731 OPS in AAA last year. He hit under .200 in spring training last year where he saw some fringe level major-league pitching. I agree that the odds are good he will be an above average major league hitter as he develops someday, but the evidence suggests that today is not yet that day. He still needs some time in AAA. I think the Front Office is playing this the right way. This is the year to find out if Julien can be your regular second baseman, Lewis your regular third baseman, and Kirilloff your regular first baseman. You bring in experienced backups like Santana and Farmer so you don't have a huge drop-off if in fact one of those three either gets hurt or can't handle the job. In the interim, Lee can develop a AAA and be ready by roughly midseason. If all three are playing well and looking like long term mainstays by midseason AND Lee is tearing up AAA, THEN you have a logjam that gives you some trading flexibility for that number two starter we might need in the playoffs or you move one to the OF. The chances of all four players working out that way, not to mention Wallner needing to cement himself as an everyday MLB player, are not real high. It would be great if they do and then you can tackle the logjam but let's make sure it develops before we make any moves.