LA Vikes Fan

If those are correct, the only ones that interest me are Rodriguez (4 yrs/ $82m), Stroman (2 yrs/ $44m), and Giolito (2 yrs/ $44m), in that order. Imanaga is interesting but pretty much a complete crapshoot on a long contract for a 30 year old. Gray at 3 years, $65m works - 1 year less, little less AAV - but I do think he'll get 4 years from somebody and probably more AAV so he'll be out of what the Twins perceive as their price range.

I think Farmer comes back unless the FO and manager believe that they have a good replacement at SS for the 20-40 games Correa either rests or is unavailable AND we can get a good return in a trade. Having a competent fielding SS is pretty close to an absolute requirement on a MLB team. The backup SS doesn't have to hit but he absolutely has to have a plus glove. Can Lewis hold down SS? I don't think either Polanco or Castro can field the position at a good enough level to be the backup. There doesn't seem to be anyone at the AAA level either so having a decent glove to back up Correa is a necessity. I think the Twins trade Farmer if they think the have that backup SS, who I think has to be Lewis. I think Lewis can do the job so I would explore the trade market for Farmer. Famer is better than the best available SS out there. I expect the Twins to trade Farmer if they can get a good return like an established quality LH reliver with more than 1 year of control. If so, Farmer goes and either Gordon makes the team or Solano stays. If not, there is no room at the Inn for either of them.

I hope you're wrong on the roster because that group looks one starter in the #2-#3 range and at least 2 relievers short of being competitive in the deep playoff run sense. The good news is that you still have $33m to spend if we assume a $150m payroll. I accept your lineup construction as the right one, but tweak the pitching as follows: (1) Sign Sonny Gray for 3 years/$66m. Louie Varland becomes the SP1 in St. Paul, gets 10 – 15 starts for the Twins as an injury/rest replacement. Perfect way to find out if he could be a full-time MLB starter in 2025 or should transition to bullpen. I wanted to put Varland in the bullpen right away because I think he could be incredibly valuable as an 8th inning/alternative closer guy but I think they're one year away from making that decision given that he really, really wants to stay a starter. Payroll up $21.25m to $138.5M. (2) Sign Matt Moore as a LH reliever for $5-7.5m and either Jordan Hicks or Renaldo Lopez as a RH reliever for $3-4m for the bullpen. Moran and Sands go to St. Paul, saving 1.5 million. Payroll up between $8m and $12m, final total in the $145 –150m range. It doesn't necessarily have to be 2 of these 3 guys; the concept is to sign 2 experienced quality relievers, one of whom is left-handed, to both round out the bullpen and provide an alternative "closer" to close out games so Duran doesn't have to pitch four days a week. I think you have to dedicate about $9-13m a year to get those 2 guys, which is offset by taking two $750,000 year guys and putting them in the minors.. I would be happy to sign Maeda as one of the two relievers if he is willing to be a reliever/6th starter but I think he will get at least a two-year deal somewhere else to be a starting pitcher in the $10 – $12 million a year range. I see Maeda as more of a fallback if Sonny Gray leaves. I would be willing to pay Maeda $10-12m a year on a two year deal, and put him in as the #4 or #5 starter if Gray leaves. Don't think we can/will pay both. I think it is a year too soon to think of Varland as part of an opening day starting rotation but I do think it's the year were going to find out if he can be that in 2025 forward. I wish they could convince him that the right career path is to transition to a late inning reliever now because I think he could be awesome in that role but I understand why he wants to remain a starter -- the contract difference is roughly $10-15m a year between a quality bullpen. guy and a quality mid rotation starter. Hard to walk away from that if you think you can be that mid rotation starter.

I agree with your logic but I'm in between your number and the 3/$60m prediction. I think he'll get 3 years.$65-66m. I'm in favor of re-signing him for that price. I fear you might be correct that anything like that will be more than the Twins will be willing to pay.

Agreed but seemds very unlikely. Chris Bassitt got 3 years/$63m last year with stats very similar to Gray. Bassitt got that for his ages 34-36 seasons, exactly where Gray is now. You gotta think Gray will get or exceed that contract a year later after the best year of his career. I think Gray gets at least 3 years/$65-70m and might get 4 years at that same AAV, 4 years/90-100m. At 3 years $68m or less, I vote for signing him. At 4 years, no. I'd rather pony up as much as 5 years/130m for Jordan Montgomery. As good or better than Gray, younger, and playoff tested. Still I don't expect the Twins to think they have the resources to do that. I actually expect Montgomery to wind up on the Dodgers. So with that, I'm back to keep Gray at 3 years/$65-68m if you can.

I don't any of the 3 start with the Twins; all start the season at AAA. They should play Martin as the everyway CF, Lee as the everyday 3B and Severino at 1B. Play them where they would play with the Twins, that's what the minors are for. All 3 could get a chance this year in the bigs if they produce in AAA. There is no need to rush any of them and no obvious place where any of them would be an upgrade. Let's also put one thing to bed - Lewis is not going to the OF. The Twins have made that decision and it isn't going to change. I think Lewis is the everyday 3B until Correa moves there and Lewis becomes the SS. That's been the plan and there is no reason to change that plan.

I've read that he doesn't use his legs much when he throws and that limits his velocity. He sounds like the type of pitcher the Twins have had some success with by incorporating their legs into their throwing motion and increasing velocity. This guy sounds like a classic minor leader that could benefit from going to Driveline or something similar to work on velocity. If he can even get the 93 – 95, that can make a huge difference.

I agree although i would prefer to se them re-sign Gray than Maeda. I suspect the Twins will re-sign one of those two - maybe Gray for 3 years 65-70m, or Maeda for 2 years, 15m - and then seek depth by picking up a bounce back candidate like a rehabbing Odorrizzi or someone coming of a poor year like Giolito, Paxton or Montas. I'd love to see them make a run at Montgomery or Rodriquez but I think they will be too expensive. Paddack goes to #3 after Lopez and Gray, or #2 wiwth Maeda #4.

I live in LA and the rumor here is that he was a bad teammate. Wen the allegations against him arose, the Dodgers supposedly canvassed the team to see if they should keep him around. The sentiment of the players was reportedly to get rid of him. No love from his teammates and no reported thought here of bringing him back. Given all of the baggage, I wouldn't be in favor of signing Bauer. I'll actually be surprised if he lands with an MLB team for next year.

I think it depends a lot on how long he wants to pitch. I have to believe that there is at least the three year, $63 million deal that Chris Bassitt got last year out there for Gray. Gray is a year younger so the analogy is good and they have similar stats. If Gray is willing to take a three year deal, I think the Twins should offer him something similar and I think that would be a competitive offer. I do think there will be at least one team that will offer him four years at a slightly higher AAV or three years at a significantly higher AAV. Something like four years, $90 million or three years, $70-75 million. I think if Gray is willing to take a three year deal the Twins will offer him one and there's an even money chance he stays. If he is looking for four years now, I think he's gone because someone else will offer that and the Twins will not. Bottom line, I think it's a very close call but it is more likely than not that he winds up somewhere else next year.

Unless Hoskins us available relatively cheap (unlikely) I would stay with in house options. and I think we have a few. Start the season with a decision of whether Julien is your long term 2B or whether you want that position available for Lee in 2024 or 2025. I think Julien is the 2B for the next 5 years so I put him at 2B, and give Polanco a 1B glove to learn the position as part of being a super utility guy. I also don't understand the doom and gloom on Miranda. He was hurt last year and it showed when he tried to play. IF he is healthy, he and Polanco share 1B while Polanco and Julien share 2B. Great platoon since you have a RH hitter, LH hitter and switch hitter. Miranda hit in AA, he hit in AAA, and hit in 2022 at the MLB level. If he isn't healthy, then Polanco is the primary 1B and you have a spot open for Larnach, Severino, or Lee (with Julien moving to 1B), whichever one looks the best in ST. Bring in a guy on the way up from the system, not some older mediocre vet (unless you can get Hoskins since he's better than mediocre). In either event, Solano is gone and Farmer stays. Donnie barrels was a nice regular season guy last year, but he didn't hit in the playoffs, has no power to speak of, is a below average fielder, and is 36 so he isn't likely to get better, he's likely to get worse. I know that sounds very cold but that's what we need to be in the off season. The IF group is then Lewis, Correa, Julien, Polanco, Farmer, and Miranda if he's healthy and swinging well, or Larnach, Severino or Lee if he isn't. AK can break into that group when he's healthy in place of whoever is hurt or ineffective (and at least one of them will be one or the other). I think the plan will be Miranda at 1B with Polanco a super utility IF/platoon 1B/insurance for Julien at 2B/DH unless Miranda can't go. And I think that's the right plan. Save your free agent money for pitching, pitching, and more pitching.

I'm in favor of keeping Polanco but I don't think "gaping hole" is a fair description of Julien's present defense and particularly not of his potential future defense. He started out as pretty far below average defensively, worked very hard on his defense, and I think he improved to basically average at second base by the end of the year. Given his purported work ethic, I suspect he will work very hard in his defense in the off-season. I don't see any reason that he can't improve his defense to be above average in the near future. I think sometimes we make judgments on people's abilities at a relatively early stage in their career when there are many opportunities for improvement. Julien's defense is one of those areas. I think his defense will improve and be better next year. Now, his bat may regress as is the case for Wallner, Jeffers, Castro, Larnach, and Lewis, or it may improve for some or all of them with decreased strikeout rates. I think we need to keep Polanco because we know what is, he can play basically average defense at least 2B or 3B (I suspect he could play 1B as well), and he is one of our better clutch hitters/RBI guys. I think we should keep him although I am open to trading him if we can put together a package for a #2 types starter to replace Sonny Gray. I don't think that's possible without really sacrificing good prospects, which I am not in favor of doing at this stage of this teams build, so I'd like to keep Polanco.

I don't think we actually need much to win 90 plus games next year AND to be set up for a strong post season run. Look at what we accomplished this year. We basically turned over 4 lineup positions and two rotation spots to guys who aren't even yet arbitration eligible - Jeffers, Lewis, Julien, Wallner, Ryan and Ober. Kirilloff would be another if he could just stay healthy but that doesn't look likely. This team is light years ahead of 2 years ago and the team and individual successes at AAA and AA suggest there may be more coming in the very near future. What do we need? Bullpen pieces, a RH hitting middle of the order bat, and #2 starter or a re-signing of Gray, and hmmm, bullpen pieces. Theilbar is starting to look closer to the end than the beginning. Maybe Funderburk is his replacement but we need another solid to good LH reliever. We need a "second closer" to take some of Duran's load. Jax and Pagan are NOT that guy and Stewart is an injury crapshoot every year. Those 3 can be a great combo for innings 6-8 though. We need to hope that the young guys continue to progress and don't regress. But that's it. Usually we go into the season hoping that a #1 starter, 2 middle of the order bats, and a bullpen will "emerge" from a list of unproven players, castoffs and "unpolished gems" we sign as cheap free agents, or improvement from averageish players. We don't need that any more. We have 90% f a contending team now and just need a little around the edges. I like this team. We could face plant, but I think it's more likely that we stay the same or get better next year. Great place to be. We'll need to get our September and October sports excitement some where because, well, the Vikings? That team is going to stink for a while.

Excellent piece. Thank you.

Solano is at 1B with Julien the DH. Buxton not in the lineup, nor would I expect him to be IF there is a game 5. He'll be a bench bat.

Understand the thinking, but I don't like moving Polanco back or moving Kepler. up. Polanco has been hitting the ball hard; Kepler has not. Wallner, Jeffers and Kirilloff also are not yet hitting in the playoffs. Wallner especially looks bad - they've found the high inside fastball is a pitch he seems to always swing at but can't hit. I think you stay with something close to what got us here - Julien, Polanco, Lewis, Correa, Kepler, Jeffers, Kirilloff, Taylor, Wallner. Switch Correa and Kepler so Correa has more RBI opportunities and move Wallner to the 9 hole to split up he and Kirilloff. If they're going to play Vasquez - gotta believe he will start one of the next 2 games - he hits 9, Kepler and Correa switch, and everyone 6-9 moves up one.

Now that we've won, time to start thinking about how we line up the starters for the ALDS. Games 1 and 2 are Saturday and Sunday in Houston, 3 and 4 are Tuesday and Wednesday in MN, and game 5 Friday in Houston. Lopez is able to go Sunday on 4 days rest, Gray not until Tuesday. Ryan would be next man up but hasn't pitched well lately and got bombed when he started in Houston on May 30. I think Ober is a better bet on the road, so is Maeda. Here's what I would do: Saturday - Ober Sunday - Lopez Tuesday - Gray Wednesday - Ryan/Maeda Friday Lopez Ober joins roster instead of Paddack or Funderburk (I say drop Paddack for Ober). Gives you Lopez twice, Gray in a possible elimination game, and gives us a better chance on Saturday with Ober instead of Ryan. Ryan pitches at home where he's much better. Thoughts?

So now that we've won, what's the starter order for the ALDS?

I understand the angst on the Buxton contract but let's not forget it's "only" $14.2875m a year. That's not a huge amount of money for player of his caliber even with the injury risk. I actually think that contract is a good deal for both sides with a fairly reasonable guarantee if for a guy of his talent level, with him having the chance to make more if you really performs. That kind of contract is basically number 3 or 4 starter money and he is potentially much more than that. I think it was a good risk at the time and is a good risk now, even if he winds up having to move to LF or 1B to protect his legs, or is really a full-time DH.

Houston just beat Arizona. With the Mariners losing, I think that means we open up with the Astros.

There's basically 5 guys for 2 spots. I guess the real choice is do you take Paddack and Funderburk or one of those two and either roster Buxton as a bench bat/DH, roster Luplow as a RH pinch hitter/starter against LH pitching, or keep Stevenson on the roster for defense and base running. It's a tough choice. I think it really depends on 2 things. Can Lewis recover quickly enough to be the playoff 3B or will he need to DH? If he's the playoff 3B I tend to say let's keep the extra roster spot for a bat like Buxton or Luplow, or for Stevenson's speed and flexibility. If he needs to DH, Buxton stays home for sure. Second, Is Paddack really ready to pitch in meaningful game situations? We know he can light up the radar gun but last night showed that he has to also hit spots. He did one inning, he didn't in the second inning. No reason to roster him if you have to afraid of when to pitch him. I think you roster Funderburk regardless to give you the second lefty. If Lewis can go in the field, roster Buxton if he's healthy. If not roster Paddack, Luplow or Stevenson. If Lewis needs to DH, the more likely result, roster Paddack if he has two better appearances than last night before the season ends. If not, roster Stevenson. I think his combo of defense and speed is more important than Luplow's ability to be a decent bat against LH pitching,

Too soon for the long term. I agree with you for this year. He didn't hit in AAA (SSS) so it's hard to see why we would activate him for the playoffs if he can't play in the field. And he can't. Have to keep the DH spot open for Lewis in the first round. I hate to say it, but I wouldn't be surprised if Buxton is left off of the post season roster for at least the first round and maybe even more, IF there is more.

Makes sense to DFA Floro. He wasn't going to make the team for the playoffs and his contract is up at the end of the year. Why save him for 6 meaningless games? I think this is it. No reason to rush Alcala back; he won't be on a post season roster either. Post season bull pen is Duran, Thielbar, Jax, Pagan, Stewart, Paddack, Maeda, Varland. Maybe add one of Funderburk, Keuchel or Ober, most likely Funderburk (my choice)or Keuchel. I don't see Ober in the BP for the first round and Ryan is starter #3. Still gives us only 11 or 12 pitchers so we can take 14 or 15 bats.

Is the current FO perfect? Far from it. Still, you have to give them credit for seizing on the opportunity presented this year to turn over the roster while remaining competitive and winning the division in a down year. Look at all of the new(ish) players over the last 2-3 years on the 26 man roster- Lopez, Gray, Lewis, Kirilloff, Julien, Wallner, Castro, Taylor, Funderburk (finally), Ryan, Ober.... They have turned over half of the roster in the last 2 years and won the division in year 2. Yes, the division is very weak. That created an opportunity to continue the rebuild and still have a real shot at the playoffs. The FO seized that opportunity. That's not luck. That's good management. Recognizing opportunities and making moves to take advantage of them is exactly what you want good management to do. I really don't understand why there are some here who just hate the FO and won't give them any credit for this year's partial success. Note the use of the word "partial". I agree that "real success" means more than just winning a weak division. Real success means wining at least one playoff series AND being set up to both make the playoffs and make some noise in the playoffs for the next 3-5 years. Are we there? Hard to say. We'll know more on the first criterion in a couple of weeks, the second in a couple of years. Injuries, regression, dumb trades, good trades, all could make a real difference. One thing I think we can say is that the roster turnover the last couple of years makes it more likely that we could have a good run of success for the next 2-3 years, something we could not say under previous management. I don't know about you guys but I'm actually pretty excited about this team. I think they have a chance to win a playoff game or two or even the first series if they can somehow avoid Houston. I also think this team could be a strong contender for the next 3-5 years if things break right. Y'all can complain about about the new guys in the FO. I'm going to watch the games and enjoy the ride.

I'm with Bigfork. The Astros are the team I least want to face in the first round of the playoffs of the likely 4. I think the Rangers, Mariners, and Blue Jays are all better matchups for us in that order. Still, wouldn't mind facing Houston in the second round. I'll take anybody in the second round. Just happy to be there.