LA Vikes Fan

Frankly, it may be that it's time to shut Archer down for the season. He really isn't providing much value as a starter. None of the replacements are great, but they are all better than he is right now. Archer looks completely cooked for the season.

Urshela and Sanchez are both tough decisions. I see Urshela as the classic starter on a second division team, utility guy on a contender. Sanchez is a 2nd catcher/position share guy with a strong defensive LH hitting catcher on a contender. All good in theory but the decision boils down to options. I come out differently on the two of them primarily because of what else we have. With Urshela, a lot depends on what happens with Correa. If he's back, Urshela should go and we should use his roster spot for a bat first RH DH type with Miranda and Arraez playing 3b and 1B until Lewis gets back, then Lewis plays 3B and one of those two is the DH. If Correa goes, I'm torn but then we should probably keep Urshela to have infield depth. I would want him in a utility/DH role with Miranda getting the everyday 3B reps. The only way we can find out if Miranda can play 3B on an everyday basis is to play him there on an everyday basis, Sanchez is easier. We don't have another MLB quality catcher other than Jeffers, catchers are very hard to find, and they are impossible to trade for without overpaying. Sanchez stays if we can re-sign him and he and Jeffers are the catchers next year.

Wow, that’s ugly. And it explains a lot. Maybe Correa is getting back on track with his 2 hits tonight. Also, I’m a little surprised about Gordon. I thought he was doing better than that.

The time to make changes in the starting rotation is coming with Mahle due off the IL in about a week. Mahle, Gray and Ryan are easy picks, everyone else is in play - pick two of Bundy, Archer, Aaron Sanchez, Smeltzer, Louie Varland, SWR for 5, or should we go to a 6 man rotation and pick 3? Who goes into the bullpen? To me, first choice is obvious - Dylan Bundy, The man has a 2.33 ERA in August and has kept the Twins in every game he's started this month. Rocco needs to try giving him a shot at going more than 5 innings but he has been an above average 4/5 rotation guy for the last month. The second choice is less obvious but the guy it shouldn't be is pretty clear - Chris Archer. He had a 11.74 ERA in July and has a 5.24 ERA in August. While he was better earlier, he only pitched 19 innings last year and is coming off a potentially career ending injury. He is running out of gas. Either put him in the bullpen or shut him down. That leaves Smeltzer and Sanchez on the roster, and Louie Varland and SWR down in AAA. Smeltzer was exposed while in the rotation before - 1.50 ERA in May, 4.10 in June, 8.76 in July - and actually looks the part of a long reliever with a 1.80 ERA since coming back up. Varland is tempting but he just got to AAA. SWR still has control issues and also just got there, and there isn't anyone else on the Saints roster who looks like anything close to a MLB starter. Those two could come up on 9/1 and still be under the 45 days so retain their rookie status for 2023. Very tempting to try to catch lightning in a bottle but I just don't think either one is ready. Here's your winner - Aaron Sanchez. Yes, he was bad with the Nats, but his 2 starts with the Twins so far have been a total of 9 innings, 4 runs. He would have gone longer against Houston if Rocco hadn't messed up. His pitches have life and I could see him being very good against weaker teams and holding his own against better ones. If he pitches well Sunday against the Giants I think he's the man for the #5 spot in the rotation. For the bullpen, two changes jump out at me. First, Brad Peacock or Jharel Cotton should come up and replace Megill. Megill has good stuff, but he's been figured out - 1.86 ERA in July, 6.55 in August. Peacock is experienced and can better give us back of the bullpen work. Cotton had a 2.83 ERA when sent down, albeit with a FIP over 5. He's risky, but we could use another multi inning/long man with the shorter starts and he can fill that role. Archer stays and hits the BP or goes on IL. I would also be ok with Moran coming up if Archer goes on the IL. Remember, we get 2 more spots on 9/1 and one of them can be a pitcher so we can add one for a 9 man bullpen. I say add Peacock and Cotton, move Archer to the bullpen, option Megill and option/DFA Pagan. Moran can come up if there's an injury but remember, once he comes up he's hit his limit for the year and can't be sent back down without exposing him to waivers. That would give us a starting rotation as of 9/1 of Mahle, Gray, Ryan, Bundy, Sanchez. The Bullpen is Duran and Lopez as the late inning guys, Jax, Theilbar, Fullmer, Archer (or Moran) and Peacock for innings 6-8, and Smeltzer and Cotton as the multi inning/long men. Smeltzer and Archer are the emergency starters. That's our best pitching staff for September in my view. What say ye?

I have read that Pagan has options but he also has more than 5 years of MLB time. Asa a result, he can refuse an assignment to AAA and become a free agent if the Twins try to option him down. He also is controllable one more year through arbitration. I think these are the two reasons the Twins still hang on - hope that he can be "fixed' so his production matches the talent and fear that he will leave and another team will fix him. That, and the trade we amde to get him and Paddack. Having said that, this strikes me as the classic chasing after sunk costs combined with a fantasy that the Twins can find value where others can't. It didn't work out here; time to move on. Option him, bring up Moran or Sisk. IF he stays in AAA and collects his $2.3m salary maybe he can be fixed. If not, it's a cost of doing business.

To echo what others have said, this is a no-brainer from a business standpoint. Of course he will opt out. The only risk he takes by opting out is that no team, including the Twins, will give him a one-year deal for $35.1 million. There is a small amount of risk but not very much risk given the market for shortstops. I think that the very least he could re-sign a similar deal with the Twins and probably with five or six other teams. There is no rational business reason for him to do anything other than not exercise his player option unless he suffers a really significant injury. The real question is does he want to stay with the Twins long-term. If he does or is at least open to the possibility, this is the off-season for him to try to sign the contract of five years or longer. That's really what we should be talking about, should the Twins give him a 6-8 year deal at $30+ million? I vote yes! I know we have Royce Lewis coming up but there's no reason he couldn't play 3B or LF. I do recognize and appreciate the argument that the same money could and should be used to sign a true #1 starting pitcher. I hear that but the risk is very high in those long-term pitching deals and the Twins have not shown the willingness or the ability to sign those kind of free agent pitchers. I also question whether a true, established #1 starter would come to Minnesota when we just got rid of our highest paid player. Also, I think bringing on Mahle and Gray this year, both of whom I think the Twins can and should re–sign or less than the total of $40 million per year between the two of them, put us in a decent spot with starting pitching when you add in Ryan, Maeda, Ober, and Paddack. Yes, this year is an example of what can happen with injuries to pitchers but that's a risk I'm willing to take. I also think re-signing Correa long-term sends exactly the signal to the market that we want to send. It tells other free agents that were willing to spend for quality, and that we are committed to a long-term winning culture. That gives us a much better shot at getting some free agents, particularly the second tier good but not great players that you need to be a backbone for your team. If I were in charge of the Twins, I would put a competitive 6 or 7 year offer on the table north of $30 million in AAV and see if he can be re-signed.

Thanks for the clarification on Cave. I thought he was out of options. No reason for the DFA then, just option him back to AAA.

Absolutely right. I would add Kepler to that first group.

Larnach might not provide much help but there is hope. He was hitting well before the injury dragged him down and had a good walk rate. It will take some games to knock the rust off but I could see him providing a .260/.325/.425 kind of boost down the stretch. Better than Kepler, better than Celestino, more power than Gordon with the same OPS range. Maybe he and Garlick become a platoon in LF (where Laranch rated highly on defense), Gordon can play CF with a Celestino/Kepler platoon in RF since Buxton may need to primarily DH if he can play at all after last night. If Buxton can come back and play CF, Kepler should be the odd man out to be the 4th OF with Gordon playing every day although I don't trust Baldelli to see it the same way. IF performance is the basis and hitting counts more than defense on a team that is having trouble scoring runs, Gordon is the winner over Kepler. Buxton as a full time DH creates an interesting situation since the Miranda/Arraez/Urshela group only has 1B, 3B, and DH to get them all in the lineup. Somehow injuries seem to take care of these things, particularly for this team. My guess is Buxton goes on the 10 day IL this week, Garlick comes up, Larnach is up next week, Cave goes DFA, Beckham goes DFA when Buxton comes back.

The guys that could maybe help are Larnach, Garlick, and Maeda. None may help but Larnach is really the key. If he can hit some, he can essentially be the full time DH/LF. We desperately need another middle of the order bat to hit ahead of Gordon, Urshela and Kepler. If he were to come back and hit, he could really help. And if Buxton is out for awhile we need the help even more. The rest is marginal. Garlick can at least put Kepler on the bench against lefties so that's some help. Maeda can hopefully take some of the stretch innings that would go to Pagan and Megill. Big help? No, but maybe something on the margins. Seems like a game or two may matter so even the margins help. Oh, by the way, I think Aaron Sanchez is actually going to help down the stretch.

Well put. It seems like they just don't have somebody who's simultaneously keeping the team loose and at the same time performing and pulling guys up. We miss Nelson Cruz. I know he can't hit any more but it would almost have been worth bringing him back. Same for Eddie. Teh team always seemed to play better when he was in the lineup whether he hit or not. We just don't seem to have that guy right now.

i agree with this. I say it slightly differently - we don't have that one guy who can/will carry the team for a month. Same concept though. There is no on field player who puts the team on his back and carries it. Buxton is hurt, Correa isn't that guy, Polanco . . .A great manager like Terry Francona can do that on conjunction with one great player like Jose Ramirez but Baldelli isn't that manager and we don't have that player. It would be great to see one emerge but the time is getting late. . .

Not sure I agree that the only "stars" came from a previous regime. It was this FO that actually created a functional MLB pitching staff by trading for Duran, Gray, Ryan, Lopez, Fullmer, Maeda and Mahle, among others. Of course, they also traded away Rogers for a starter who got hurt and he who shall not be named. They also signed Polanco and Buxton long term and signed Correa as a FA, things the former regime would not have done. They also drafted Miranda, Royce Lewis and Kirilloff - not sure if Larnach was them or the last year of prior regime. I think this FO has a pretty good track record of getting and keeping talent; certainly better than the Ryan II regime. Other than Buxton and Polanco, what talent did this regime inherit? Kepler and Sano were the crown jewels with Polanco and both flamed out. On the pitching side, the only real asset I can recall is Rogers and yes, he should not have been traded at least not for who they got. Maybe Kyle Gibson? I can't really think of anyone else at the MLB level that's a quality MLB player that was inherited. Gordon maybe? I think this FO has a real positive and a real negative. On the positive side they took a team that was threadbare in talent in 2016, added some real MLB talent, greatly improved the minor league pipeline and were able to keep assets around. Ryan wasn't really doing any of those things the second time around. On the negative, their trade record is mixed and the pipeline has yet to produce high end MLB pitching or that superstar hitter, and they really only added two "star" free agents, Cruz and Correa. Overall a mixed bag but I think above average to very good. But let's be honest, Much better than the prior regime.

Good post, Ted. I agree that the lack of a player "stepping up" to lead this team is one of the real issues this season. There really hasn't been a time when one or two hitters have really stepped up and carried the team through a 10-15 game stretch. Having said that, I think the bottom line with this team is that it simply does not have enough talent. I don't agree with Jim Souhan very often but he is right about this lineup. The top 4/5 of Arraez, Polanco, Miranda, Correa and Buxton are above average but they are not great. They are pretty good. More importantly, there is no one superstar hitter among them who can carry a team for a month. Correa isn't that guy - he wasn't the MAN in Houston and he's not the MAN now. All 5 of those guys would be great complimentary hitters around a true middle of the order stud but we don't have that guy. The back half of the lineup is a disaster. Nick Gordon is a nice player hitting a little bit above average and he could start on a contending team hitting in the 7 or 8 hole. Urshela is a classic starter on a 2nd division team, utility player/8 or 9 hitter on a contending team. Kepler is fourth outfielder you keep because of his defense. He can't hit. Celestino is a AAA centerfielder who you hope will make a meaningful contribution one or two years from now. Sanchez is a backup catcher, Leon is a 3rd catcher/AAA depth. Cave and Beckham are at best high minors depth who really shouldn't be on any MLB roster. You look in the minors and outside possibly of Helman there's nothing there that can help you this year. The pitching staff is similar to the top 4 or 5 hitters, solid/good but not great. The rotation is fine and could be really good if it had a number 1 starter. But we don't. The bullpen is actually pretty solid 5 to 6 pitchers deep after the trades, but the quality really falls off at the bottom. Add a #1 starter and the pitching might be good enough for a contending team with a good lineup but it's not good enough to carry the weak lineup we have. Yes, injuries have hurt, particularly the back half of the lineup and the bullpen. Yes, we will have more starters next year. Yes there is optimism for next year because of that. All good. This year? We've been playing in June, July and August at only a little below the level of the talent we have; we should really be a slightly above .500 team not a 7 or 8 games under .500 team, but that's really where the talent is. I'd love to see one of the hitters really jump up and carry us for the next couple of weeks. I think we're going to just continue to fade without that happening. If we're being honest, the best bets are really Polanco and Arraez. Correa and Buxton have been lousy with runners in scoring position all season so it's hard to see how that will change and Miranda is just a rookie. Kepler and Urshela just aren't good enough to be more than complimentary hitters at best. Short of someone really popping up to carry this team, I see the Twins continuing this slow fade and winding up somewhere between 82 and 85 wins. Enough to sort of be in contention but finishing 3-4 games outside the playoffs. Hey, it's a great improvement over last year but still would be a tad disappointing

I agree and let’s see what happens today. We all know Archer will go only four or five innings. Today would be a perfect day for Sands to go 2-4 innings and then be the guy who’s optioned to AAA SO Aaron Sanchez or Smeltzer can come up and start Tuesday in Houston. Sands can then come back in 10 days and be on the Roster by 9/1 in case we make the playoffs or we can run a 6 man rotation in September.

I tend to agree with the last poster. For this team to get hot play .600 baseball for a month, which is what they need to do to win this division, either the rotation or the offense needs to take a step up. Well I think the rotation to marshmallow you prove, I think it’s much more feasible and likely for the office to take that next step. In order to do that, Arraez, Gordon and Miranda have to continue to play the way they have and 2 of Correa, Buxton and Polanco Have to get hot. I would make those three the most important because I think that’s the most likely way to win the division.

Interesting, and seems to comport with the eye test. Kepler and Sanchez are having lousy years and Correa has been decent but below standard. He has a chance though to get back to his "normal" performance, whereas Kepler and Sanchez really don't. The other interesting thing is really to show how much both Buxton and Polanco have sacrificed average for power. I frankly like to see both of them dial that back a little since I think for this team to be successful on offense it has to be a string hits together team. Not enough table setters to be a single and a blast team. Anyway, interesting stuff.

I think we are where we are and it will be hard to totally change philosophies at this point in the season. I would like to see three tweaks though. First, give Jax, Megill, and maybe even Sands 2 inning assignments on a regular basis. That's starting to happen and they can be the "bridge" between the 4-6 inning starters and the short relievers - Fullmer, Duran, and Lopez. Theilbar is more of a fireman filling multiple roles and Pagan (rhymes with "should be gone") is the low leverage guy. Second, bring up Aaron Sanchez (for Pagan) and piggyback 2 of the following 3 each time through the rotation - Sanchez, Bundy and Archer. Hopefully that gives us one start per rotation turn where 2 guys handle most or even all of the innings. Third, give Gray and maybe Ryan more rope to go into the 6th and 7th innings. Same for Mahle if he's back soon. They're as built up as we're going to get; now is the time to stretch innings. Of course, my third thought is a lot easier to implement if we could score some runs. It's a lot easier to let guys keep going when you're up 4 or 5 runs. That would help a lot.

I don't think the Twins expected to have both of them starting every 5th game all year. They thought they had 2 guys for basically 1 5th starter spot. Paddack, Winder and/or Ober were supposed to take the #3 and #4 spots. They both got hurt and these guys are the depth options we though they might be. It's a good thing they're around with the injuries and Smeltzer pitching like, well, like Smeltzer. Bottom line, good thing we have them this year. We got value for their contracts and it was a good thing we signed them. Turns out we needed them (and maybe more depending on how long Mahle is now out). Having said all that, let' s hope we don't need more than 1 of them next year.

Agreed. He's already a #3 guy in a solid rotation.

Great to see Gray get a shot at the 7th inning. Having said that, he can't go out an give up two solid hits to start the 7th and expect that to engender confidence with the manager. It's like when Bundy went 5 strong against the Padres (?) and promptly gave up back to back hits to start the 6th. Gotta back up the ask. Gray should get more cahnces in the 7th but he has to perform.

Agreed. One hopes he can be the #4 starter next year behind Mahle, Maeda and Gray. Then next year Ryan can be the #4, Ober the #5.

I so too, but I am the eternal optimist. I think it would help if the Twins would do a couple of things that I think are long overdue, think DFA Pagan and Beckham. That would at least make me think that they are trying to right the ship before this crucial stretch.

Our extreme lack of depth is really showing. Jake Cave and Tim Beckham do not belong on a major league roster yet they re really the only available replacements for Kepler. Kepler is at best the 4th OF on a contending team. Great glove, poor hitter with occasional power, should be playing 2-3 days a week hitting 8th. He's 29 people; he' snot going to get significantly better. This is who he is. Pagan should be in the bullpen of a non-contending team or in AAA. Great arm, can't handle pressure. Leon is a 3rd catcher/AAA depth, not a 50% timeshare guy. Megill should be honing his craft at AAA looking for next year's bullpen. Bundy and Archer - maybe one in a rotation, but definitely not both. Add to that, the team is lifeless outside of Arraez and Miranda. Yes, injuries are a big culprit but they don't completely explain this malaise. So what do you do? You can nibble around the edges - bring up Aaron Sanchez, DFA Pagan, put Archer in the bullpen; bring up Helman and Contreras, DFA Cave and Beckham. Maybe that helps a little. You can fire Rocco, but replace him with who? Tingler failed in San Diego and I'm not aware of anyone out there who would be an upgrade. Losing Wes Johnson was a huge loss. Bottom line, this team was barely good enough to contend this year when fully healthy. I keep saying we have about 80-85% of a good team, and I still think that's right, but only when healthy. Right now we have about 65% of a good team. I still have hope because I am the eternal optimist but my rational side says that this team will continue to slide and finish with around 82-84 wins; just over .500. Better than the 78 wins I predicted back in March but still just not good enough. Really interesting off season coming up with Correa situation. Also, I've been a big apologist for Rocco but I am beginning to think he just isn't the guy for a team like this. Looks like time for a new voice.

Amen, brother. We need a couple of more hot bats to go with Arraez and Miranda. Polanco, Buxton, Correa, Larnach when he returns - 2 or 3 of those guys getting hot would cure a lot of what ails us.