LA Vikes Fan

Unless you are tied to the defense as paramount, these stats tell me you have a good platoon. Ak has an .858 OPS against RH pitching, Santana a .727. Against LH pitching, Santana is .807, AK .482. Yes, Santana is much better in the field but you have to acknowledge the possibility that AK could improve in the field with time and reps at age 26, whereas Santana is likely to regress both at the plate and in the field at age 38. Looks to me like the plan is clear: Ak starts against RH starters, Santana against LH starters and they pinch hit for each other when the bullpen changes sides. Santana is the late inning defensive replacement. I think it works well for this year.

I agree. Trading Kirilloff makes sense as part of a package for Jesus Lazardo or somebody of that talent, age range, and potential. It would make no sense to trade him for another DeSclafini or similar back end veteran starter. And it would make even less sense to trade him for prospects to "open up " a spot for Brooks Lee, a guy with great potential but who hasn't even conquered AAA yet. I don't think Kirilloff is enough to get us a quality youngish starter with control and I don't think the FO will want to add a lot of talent in a package with him. I think he stays with the team and I think he is the primary 1B, with Santana getting at bats against left-handed starters, some DH time, and some late inning defensive replacement time. As I've said many times before, this is the year where you play Kirilloff, Julien, Lewis, and Wallner everyday, play Jeffers 60% of the time, pitch Ryan and Ober every fifth day, and get Varland at least 20 starts.. You need to see if those guys can be the core going forward. This is the year to find that out because the Tigers, Royals, and Guardians are getting better but still are a ways off. This is the year you can give away a few games to useful inexperience and still win the division. That may not be true again starting next year.

How about Robbie Grossman as the RH OF pickup? Can't play CF (or LF for that matter) but a 158 OPS+ last year against LH pitching, I would rather have about 6 guys other than him, but here's thought that he fits the Twins: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/

I fall in between Fatbat and Fire Dan Gladden. At this point, you cannot say with any assurance that this year's team is weaker or stronger than last year. Why? Because the two keys are (1) the health of 3 critical players who had down or missed years in 23 due to injuries - Correa, Buxton, and Paddack, and (2) the continued high performance of 4 guys who were either rookies or came out of nowhere last year - Lewis, Julien, Wallner and yes, Kepler. The only givens are that the starting rotation is weaker and the bullpen is stronger probably by about an equal amount. If the 3 guys listed coming back from injury perform closer to their historic expectations and everything else is the same - we are better this year. If those 3 are the same as last year, we are worse because there is less supporting depth at AAA - they're all in the bigs. If the 4 revelations from last year continue as they did or even improve, we are definitely better and could be a lot better. If the revelations all hit sophomore slumps while Kepler returns to 2021-22, we are definitely worse and things could get ugly quickly. I think we'll be better because I think all 3 reclamations will perform substantially better than last year, and because the last 2 will be more available, and I think at least two of the 4 revelations will be as good or better and playing full seasons. My money is on Lewis and Julien. I'm an optimist by nature so I'm happy with our chances. If 5 or 6 of those 7 crap out (or Lopez gets hurt) though, we will be worse and could be a lot worse.

Agreed. Lee's likely initial spot is as Farmer's replacement. To do that, he needs to improve as a RH hitter. AAA time is necessary.

Guys, I live in LA and went through the "fun" with Bauer. Reading the almost daily media coverage about the statements from Bauer and his accuser and all of the alleged evidence left one with a very low opinion of both people. Perhaps more relevant to the debate about bringing him back to pitch on the Twins, I think it's interesting that when he could come back the Dodgers chose not to bring him back even though they were pretty desperate for starting pitching at the time due to injuries and had real WS aspirations. There was also a rumor that the Dodgers polled the players about bringing him back and the players were almost uniformly against him returning to the team. You never know how much of that were the allegations or whether he was a bad teammate (a rumor that has always followed him) but that strikes me as fairly revealing. Could Bauer help the team as a picture on the field? Absolutely. Is it worth it for the publicity and the chance he will cause issues in what is a pretty close knit clubhouse? IMO, no and it's not even a very close call.

This makes a lot of sense to me. Assume we get 180 innings from Lopez and a combined 300 innings from Ryan and Ober. We need 375-400 inning from a combination of Paddack, DeSclafani and ...... at least 2 more guys. That's why you can't make Varland a reliever. We will need a minimum of 75 innings from him starting at the MLB level and that's if we get 300 from Paddack and DeSclafani. The latter seems highly unlikely. It seems a whole lot more likely that we'll get 200 or so MLB starting innings from Paddack and DeSclafani, will need 120 or so from Varland, and another 50-75 from a combination of SWR, Canterino, Dobnak, or whatever other young guys show at AAA (Festa?), or whatever flotsam and jetsam we sign and stash at AAA. So to me, that's why Varland HAS to stay as a starter who begins the year in AAA (since we can't send DeSclafani there), AND we can and should sign another MLB guy like Lorenzen or even Thor, or one who will take a MiLB contract with an opt out like Odorizzi, Jamie Barria, or even Danny Duffy. We're going to need them.

Agreed. There just wasn't much on the SP FA market and the prices a very inflated. Heck, Sonny Gray got 75M over three years guaranteed at age 34. Building out the bullpen is a smart pivot for a team short on starting pitching. I don't think we're looing at a lot of 4-5 inning starting, but we are looking at starts where guys are pulled at the first sign of trouble after the 5th except for Lopez. That's ok by me.

This "logjam" may be much more theoretical than real at the current time. We are well stocked at the MLB level if you assume that Kirilloff, Lewis and Julien remain healthy and that none suffers a sophomore slump. We need to keep in mind with Julien in particular that while he hit well in June and July, he had a .638 OPS in August and a low batting average in September, albeit with a .838 OPS because he walked a lot. Kirilloff has not consistently hit in hit MLB ABs, potentially but not assuredly due to injury. Regression is a real possibility here for both or they may settle in at an average or below level. Lewis is less likely to regress based on past experience but has had serious injury risk. One injury or one regression and all of a sudden Brooks Lee is in the majors with a clear path to playing time. Speaking of Brooks Lee, he has not yet shown that he can hit AAA pitching at a dominant level in a hitter friendly league, much less that he can hit MLB pitching. He had a .841 OPS in AA, but only a .731 OPS in AAA last year. He hit under .200 in spring training last year where he saw some fringe level major-league pitching. I agree that the odds are good he will be an above average major league hitter as he develops someday, but the evidence suggests that today is not yet that day. He still needs some time in AAA. I think the Front Office is playing this the right way. This is the year to find out if Julien can be your regular second baseman, Lewis your regular third baseman, and Kirilloff your regular first baseman. You bring in experienced backups like Santana and Farmer so you don't have a huge drop-off if in fact one of those three either gets hurt or can't handle the job. In the interim, Lee can develop a AAA and be ready by roughly midseason. If all three are playing well and looking like long term mainstays by midseason AND Lee is tearing up AAA, THEN you have a logjam that gives you some trading flexibility for that number two starter we might need in the playoffs or you move one to the OF. The chances of all four players working out that way, not to mention Wallner needing to cement himself as an everyday MLB player, are not real high. It would be great if they do and then you can tackle the logjam but let's make sure it develops before we make any moves.

Simple as that. Nothing else to see here.

I could see Larnach or Gordon getting traded but I doubt it's in a package for a MLB starting pitcher. I think it's a lot more likely that they get traded for someone farther down in a struggling organization like Oakland who has at least two options left, maybe an A ball pitching type. Gordon will go if we sign Taylor or Duvall (Pham makes no sense) and Larnach may go as the season wears on.

I'd agree with you if we were talking about any of the 3 guys who came up last year and stuck, Kirilloff, Lee, or even Martin. The problem is that Miranda isn't just a guy with one pretty good year and one horrific year, he's coming off of shoulder surgery and his comments suggest he may still be hurting. Too many red flags for me to take a chance out of the gate. He's got to start in AAA and show something first. You are right that if he does hit well at AAA to start out the season, this FO has a bad habit of keeping underperforming veterans over up and coming young players once the vets are signed. I would love to change that but am not hopeful. Still, injuries tend to provide opportunities so I think it's more likely than not that Miranda will get a chance this year IF he performs in AAA.

Assuming we can't or don't get a SP, I'm with Stringer - pay MAT $6-8m, trade Gordon for an A ball lottery ticket or two, and be done. MAT provides excellent CF defense and can play every day if (when) Buxton winds up hurt or only able to DH. IF Buxton can give us 100 games in CF, that still leaves 62 for Taylor. It's probably more of an 80 game need or even more. Taylor can also play LF against LH pitching, play late inning defense, and pinch run. Duvall is old, a lousy CF, and strikes out 30% plus of the time. Soler is too expensive and can't play defense at all. Pham is older, not much of a CF, and not someone to mess with in your fantasy league. Martin isn't yet ready and there will be an injury opened spot by mid-season if he's ready then. Same for Keirsey. Taylor can give us what we need on a 1 year deal, do it if we can.

I'll put a number to my thinking - 88 wins. Better bullpen, lesser rotation, lineup about even. Lineup balances losing Polanco and the possible dreaded "sophomore slump" from Lewis, Julien, and Wallner, plus last year being possible career years for Kepler, Castro, and Jeffers on the negative side with probable better years from Correa and Buxton, the addition of Santana, more ABS for Lewis, Julien, and Wallner if they don't slump, and better health and production from Kirilloff, Gordon, and Miranda on the positive side. Add in improvements in Detroit, KC, and even Cleveland, and I see us right about where we were last year. I added 1 win because I'm an optimist by nature.

I think the difference is Santana's track record suggests (doesn't guarantee) that he will be a roughly .750 OPS guy with very good or better defense next year. Miranda, on the other hand, might be the 2022 version, might be the 2023 version, might soar above the crowd, or might fall off the table in terms of performance. Or... he might be still injured and not worth much this year. I like Miranda and I think he is part of the core moving forward. I just don't think he will establish that until the second half of this year at the earliest. I want MLB depth being consistent players not players with a wide variety of potential outcomes. The unknowns can start in AAA and show us the money. IF Miranda does that, THEN he can come up and displace someone. Let's not bet on that up front. besides, with injuries being what they are, he'll get his chance at some point and probably by June if he performs in AAA.

Good analysis, Stringer. The more I look at Santana the more he looks like the classic "reliable vet" signing to help a youngish contending team get over the hump. He's steady while not spectacular at the plate, plays very good to elite defense, and hits well in RBI producing and late game situations. He's the kind of guy that can hit 4 or 5 in the order (news flash, we need one of those). Most importantly, he can help take the pressure off of the younger guys just finding their legs at the MLB level. Count me as one who likes this signing for reasons other than just the stats he brings. The Twins this year are dependent on three very young guys in the field (Lewis, Julien, and Wallner), and two in the rotation (Ryan and Ober) to perform at a high level. Odds are that at least one or two of them will not be as good this year as last. Having steady vets helps the young guys play better. I think Santana will help the team in ways that don't translate well to the stat sheet and I think we need that. Now only if we could get a steady veteran starter to pitch in the number 2 slot . . .

The long-term play should be for Lewis or Kirilloff to move to LF, Wallner to RF, and Brooks Lee to come up and play 2B or 3B, Julien to 1B if Lee plays 2B and Lewis 3B. In other words, some combination where Julien, Lewis, Kirilloff, and Lee handle the 2B, 3B, 1B, and LF spots on a daily basis. That's post 2024 though, certainly no earlier than after the ASB this year. That short term play that could move that timeline up if we can trade Max plus a not top 10 prospect or two for a young starting pitcher with #2/3 upside like a Miller or Woo from Seattle, Luzardo from Miami, etc. The pitching market is so hot and overvalued that I just don't think that's even close to possible. Bottom line is Max is here for 2024, probably hitting in the 4-6 slots. I'm ok with that unless they can trade him for pitching.

There's an article on ESPN ranking all the MLB farm system by "empirical surplus dollar value", whatever that is. The Twins are ranked as #9. That's a little bit higher than I would have expected and the ranking does not appear to include the Seattle prospect we just got in the Polanco trade, at least he is not mentioned. They do mention Lee, Martin, Festa, Canterino, and Cory Lewis as guys at upper levels who could make an impact this year or next, and Rodriguez and Raya as guys who could make an impact in the second half of 2024. I thought you guys might find this interesting. Here's the link: https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/39437646/top-30-mlb-farm-systems-prospects-list-2024-kiley-mcdaniel-cubs-orioles-tigers-padres it is behind the ESPN+ pay wall so I apologize if not everyone can access this. It will eventually get to the regular site. I get access to this because of the Disney Plus subscription my wife made us get to give my grandson something to watch when he comes over.

Ryu is an interesting call. I guess he had TJ surgery in June 2022 and threw 52 late season innings for the Blue Jays last year in 11 starts. 3.46 ERA, 4.91 FIP, 1.288 WHIP. Baseball reference projects him for a 6-5, 4.40 ERA over 88 innings as a starter this coming season. Spotrack gives him a "value" of $8.1m a year. He'll be 37 this year. I've read that the Yankees have interest in him as rotation depth. Would he be worth a 1 year, $8-10m deal? How about a 2 year $15-17m deal? Could be a good pairing with Paddack - 200 or so innings between the 2 of them. Might make sense on a 1 year deal if we can't get good RH bat. And to me, a good RH bat is Soler, Duvall, or maybe Pham. Not Merrifield, MAT, or Solano (love Solano but no power and age 36, hard to see a repeat, same for Taylor at age 33). Here's an interesting thought - Sign Ryu, fill the 80-100 games Buxton can't play CF with Castro and /or Martin or Keirsey and rotate Buxton, Kirilloff, Lewis, Farmer, Julien, Larnach, Wallner, etc. through the DH spot. Would rather have a good RH bat (Plan A) but I think this is a decent Plan C. FWIW, my Plan B is a trade for a youngish starter using prospects other than Jenkins or Lee. I don't think we are going to bee able to pull off Plans A or B so C is at least another option.

Good point. It's one of the reasons I think Soler is a better fit - strikeout rates of around 24-25% rather than over 30%. They both have pluses and minuses - Soler is a bit of a butcher in the field - but on balance I think Soler is the better fit. He's also more expensive at more like $12-15m a year instead of $5-8m a year, I'd be ok with either one on a 2 year or less deal. Ig that can't happen, I say let's go with what we got and spend out money on a pitcher like Michael Lorenzen.

What about Adam Duvall at 2 years/$12-16m total? He's older but still hitting and can play CF some and has played 1B in the past. Over .750 OPS 6 of the last 7 years and over .800 last year in Boston. Probably more of a .750 OPS guy outside of Fenway. Not great but would seem to fit our needs. Would be good on a 1-year deal but what I read is he's holding out for a 2-year deal. I like Soler short term, but he wants 3 years and I just don't think that's a smart gamble.

I looked at Cron's stats and they are scary. Look at his OPS in Colorado 2021- first half of 2023. His OPS went from .905 to .789 to .723. Then he got traded to the Angels for whom he had a .519 OPS in 54 plate appearances (admittedly a SSS). He's now 33. Looks like a guy who's fading at the end of his career with that career possibly elongated by playing at Coors field. I don't think he would be a good add.

Really interesting and it puts the Polanco trade into a greater perspective. It looks like there is more to DeSclafani that can be "unlocked" and makes him a better candidate to become more of a mid-rotation starter. He also has a track record of that level of success in years past although he was not good last year. Of course, none of us know if the Twins can unlock the potential but they have had some success with that in the past so this makes this a reasonable gamble. Look, I'm like everybody else. I somehow convinced myself that trading Polanco would get us a young starter with a high ceiling. As a result, I was a little less than thrilled with the trade when it was announced yesterday. I with the benefit of a good night sleep and a better understanding of what DeSclafani can be, I'm starting to like the trade more and more. We got a quality reliever in Topa, a possibly backend to mid rotation starter, a top 100 prospect and a pitching lottery ticket. That's a pretty darn good return for an aging second baseman who hits well and is a good leader but has significant injury issues. I love what Polanco did as a Twin and wish he could be that same guy forever but that's not the way the world works. Given our surplus at the position and our needs, this trade actually addresses what we had to get. I'm beginning to like it more and more

I haven't seen the word "transmogrify" used in a sentence since the old "Calvin and Hobbes" comic strip. They had an overturned cardboard box they called the "transmogrifier" which changed things in a magical way. Excellent use of vocabulary. I agree on Ober. I do see him a solid #3 with #2 potential. Frankly, same thinking on Ryan for different reasons. Their improvement looks like the only way to replace Gray's contribution.

This. The roster actually looks pretty competitive, even playoff competitive, as long as no one gets hurt and only one or two have a bad year/regress. The issue at this point is a lack of depth to withstand injury and poor performance, particularly on the pitching side. There is plenty of time to get more depth. Quality depth players aren't the "big name FAs", they are the Donovan Solano type in the field and the Ryu, Clevinger, Lorenzen (even Odorizzi) types on the mound. Get one of those depth starting pitchers or, even better, trade from surplus like Polanco and get a young(ish) starter and we're good to start the season. I've also come around to the idea that signing a Rys Hoskins or similar guy is not the way to go. The division is still weak so we have time and leeway. We need to see what we have in Kirilloff and Miranda. In the OF, don't sign Soler or Grichuk even if we trade Kepler (unlikely IMO). Instead, let's play Martin, Larnach, Kiersey and Prato. See what we have. Let's see if we can build a young foundation around the diamond like Houston did after bottoming out. Let's not try to patch "holes" with short term vets until we know that they are holes. I'd love to see us ending the season with Julien, Lewis, Wallner, Varland, Paddack, Funderburk, Kirilloff, Miranda, and at least one of the OFs I mentioned as "established" quality MLB players. It doesn't have to be all of them; it can be 75%-80%. We can project at the trade deadline whether or not we are going to get there. If we do that, then we know where the holes and then we patch.