LA Vikes Fan

This. The last roster spot is for Larnach to grab, not Gordon. Gordon is already on the team and should start if Kepler is traded. He'll also start if Kirilloff can't go and either Gallo or Kepler has to play 1B. Gordon could also see 2 games a week at DH. Bottom line is that as presently constructed this is a team with a lot of interchangeable pieces who all will play 5 days a week. Gordon is one of those pieces. .

I agree. How about full time in LF? We could use a RH hitting corner outfielder. He seems pretty athletic. I'm thinking that he has to be teachable enough to at least make the Garlick level on defense, no? Maybe also some time at 1B to make him more valuable? Put him out there in AAA with Walner in RF, Celestino in CF, Julien in LF, and Contreras as the 4th OF. It may not work but I don't really see another option. Besides, his hit/on base tool is such that we should really make the effort to try to find him a spot before relegating him to a DH.

I think the key battle is the corner OF position and whether we keep all of Gallo, Kepler, Larnach, and Gordon. While there are a number of options, I'd like to see them trade Kepler and make LF a Gordon/Larnach/Farmer platoon. That opens up the DH spot for a number of players while still giving Larnach and Gordon 400-500 ABs apiece. It also opens up a spot for a RH hitting 1B/OF or a utility IF like Willi Castro. It is a little risky if we have a lot of injuries again but on balance I think we need to play Larnach and Gordon regularly and I just don't se how to do that if we keep Kepler on the roster. I would also like to se us pick up a LH bullpen piece, hopefully Chafin or Moore, after Lewis and Paddack go on the 60 day IL. Megill can then go to AAA as the closer. I could also see them keeping Henriquez or Sands as a long man with Alcala to AAA so he get his rhythm back after the layoff. The Starting pitchers should stay starting in AAA for depth for the season. Both Ober and Winder should be starting in AAA every 5th day so they are ready to come up start when necessary. I expect there to be at least 15-25 MLB starts available outside of the presumed starting 5 due to injuries and ineffectiveness issues so we will need these guys, plus Varland, SWR, and eventually Paddack.

You and me both, Mike. They also project Louie Varland at 4.19 in 129 innings. Interestingly, none of the regular 6 starters are projected below a 3.78 ERA or for more than 156 innings. The projections I saw in the Athletic are: Gray - 3.79, 123 innings Lopez - 3.92, 156 innings (most) Ryan - 3.91, 150 innings Mahle - 3.78 (best), 133 innings Maeda - 4.24 (worst of top 6), 83 innings (fewest of top 6) Ober - 4.00, 90 innings Winder - 4.82 (highest overall), 80 innings (fewest) Varland - 4.19, 129 innings SWR - 4.26, 108 innings Interesting stuff. I think probably pretty close to reality for the top 6 except that I think Ryan will be closer to 170 innings and a 3.5 ERA, and Gray will be closer to 150 innings with a 3.5 ERA. Would be thrilled with the predicted performance for Varland and SWR in MLB innings and ERA, a little disappointed if Ober isn't below a 4.00 ERA. Otherwise, these look pretty right on to me.

Applebee's, Olive Garden, TGI Fridays. Who wins?

Well said. He is a good example of the depth this team finally has for starting pitchers. There have been many years, if not most years, that he would be starting in the bigs for the Twins due to a lack of other options. I agree that he's unlikely to be a long term #1 or even a solid #2 starter unless he develops an "out" breaking pitch like Santana did with his change up. He just doesn't have that 94-95 mph plus velocity to get outs even when he's a little off. Still, even with his current arsenal he has the real potential to be a mid-rotation starter for a number of years. Add to that the fact that he's only 22 and he is a real asset. I think we'll know a lot more in October because I expect him to get at least 10-12 MLB starts this year as an injury replacement (plus I think Maeda winds up in the BP by year end with a new contract as a longer term BP pitcher). The Athletic did an article with prediction on the Twins top 9 starters. They put SWR at the #9 starter spot and Fangraphs predicts a 4.26 ERA in 108 innings for him. I think the prediction is for MLB innings. To me, that would be a solid start to a long big league career.

I think there’s two things going on that explain why we have not yet added a reliever. The first is we don’t want to drop anyone from the 40 man roster when pitchers and catchers report in just a couple of weeks and we can then put Paddack and Lewis on the 60 day IL. That then opens up two spots on the 40 man to add a reliever. I think that explains why Fulmer, Moore, Chafin, and others have not yet been signed by us or anyone else. I think I read that only the Astros have an open 40 man spot at this point The second is the Strahm contract did reset the reliever market and I think there’s some reluctance to go multiple years with any of these guys, especially when it’s going to be at least $7 million per year. I would like to see them sign Chafin or Moore, Fulmer not so much. I know that may mean some of the young guys have to take a backseat coming out of spring training, but there’s going to be lots of innings for everyone given the usual injuries in a pitching staff, I don’t think we should be very worried about young pitching not getting a chance; I’m much more worried about the veteran pitching getting so injured that young pitching is all we wind up having. I do think adding another quality left-handed reliever would really help hence Moore or Chafin. Whoever gives you the best deal. I’m less excited about Fulmer because he wasn’t really all that good the second half of last year and the peripherals are a little scary, so I am less confident in his ability to really perform.

interesting article. As someone who is the managing partner of a law firm, I completely understand why the FO isn’t constantly updating us on progress. Because if they did that, they couldn’t do their real job of running the team. Everybody wants information, and giving them complete daily information we make it impossible to do much of anything else. And worse, if you give people partial information, then they anchor their thinking based on information that becomes quickly outdated. One of the things that we have to understand about sports teams, and frankly about business in general, is there is a lot of information we will never know and really have no right or need to know. we need to let these guys do their jobs, update us as they find necessary, and then hold them accountable for the results. That does not include getting involved in the details or day-to-day changes.

Well said, Richie.

Substitute the word "Kepler" for the word "Gallo" and I would completely agree with you. Gallo is younger and has shown more upside than Kepler. I agree that we don't need and shouldn't still have both, just disagree that Gallo is the redundant one. You have hit the key issue though - if we have Kepler and Gallo playing in the OF or 1B 5 days a week, that means two of Gordon, Larnach, and Kirilloff won't get enough run in the field or at the plate even with the DH. Not a good idea for the team's development. That also includes Wallner but I don't think he's ready now any way. We need to give him at least 75% of a AAA season before he moves up. .

I kind of like this idea IF we can get away with a 7 man bullpen. that means the other 4 starters have to give us a consistent 6 plus innings to avoid overtaxing a shorter pen. Seems doable for Ryan and Lopez, and maybe Gray, but sounds like a stretch for Mahle. Still, having Maeda and Ober essentially tag team the 5th rotation spot is an interesting idea. Both are unlikely to go more than 125 innings this year coming off of injury so this could really work.

Agreed. I think Ober starts out the year as the #1 in St. Paul unless there is an injury in preseason with one of the top 5. Given Mahle's shoulder, Maeda coming back from TJ, Lopez' injury track record prior to 2022, and Gray's hamstring issues, Ober will get at least 15 MLB starts this year, probably more. Combined with AAA starts, i see him pitching roughly 120-130 innings this year as we try to build him up for a full starter's load in 2024 at the MLB level. No way he goes to the bullpen. Henriquez and Sands both look like long relievers to me and I could even see Henriquez becoming a late inning guy. I think both have value in that role; probably not MLB starters long term. Winder is the tough one. He has the arsenal to be an effective 2/3 starter but not the shoulder. I wouldn't be surprised if he made the team in the remaining bullpen spot, and stayed there after injury with Ober, then SWR, then Varland, as the next men up for the rotation. Still, I'd like to give him one more year's try as a starter since good ones are so hard to find. Maybe Ober and Winder in AAA as starters with Henriquez or Sands in the opening day bullpen. Last chance for Winder. More physical issues this year and he goes to the bullpen. He could be a real asset there long term but let's give him one more chance to hold up as a starter.

Mike, I agree with your thinking but I just have no confidence things will work out that way. Based on what we've seen in the past, I think that Rocco will start and play Kepler every day if he is not injured even if he continues to hit around .225 with only occasional power. I would be fine with the idea of a truly open competition between Kepler, Larnach, and Gordon for that 3rd outfield starting spot after Buxton/Taylor and Gallo (assuming Kirilloff plays 1B). I just don't think that's what will happen. While there should be a built-in bias towards playing Gordon in LF since he was the most productive of that group last season, I think Rocco's built-in bias will be to play Kepler unless he fails in a big way. That leaves that both Larnach and Gordon fighting for occasional outfield fill in and DH at bats because Michael Taylor is going to play CF when Buxton is the DH or doesn't play. That's just no way to develop younger players. That also leaves us with a good field, poor hit corner outfielder on a team that needs help offensively. Are Gordon or Larnach necessarily going to provide more than Kepler's .225 with occasional power? We won't know that unless they get a chance to play (although Gordon was a lot better than that last year). Yes, Kepler is better with the glove but now that we have Gallo so we have a strong defensive RF. What we need is a bat for the LF spot. Frankly, if we decide to keep Kepler there probably isn't any room for Larnach on the roster in a role that makes sense. It makes no sense to keep him or Gordon as the 26th man getting 10 – 15 plate appearances a week. That one remaining spot should go to someone who is either is a glove 1st utility infielder like Willie Castro or a RH hitting outfielder who excels against LH pitching. Gordon has no options so he'll make the team. Injuries can obviously change everything but as it stands now I think Larnach is a likely odd man out and is probably better served by either going to AAA and waiting for a injury based chance or being traded to another organization. And to be fair, the former may in fact be the revised plan now that Kepler didn't get us much on the trade market: play Kepler in the hope that he either markedly improves with the shift ban and/or becomes tradable at midseason and play Larnach every day at AAA while he waits for his chance. It's not the plan I would use but I do understand that kind of plan.

Agreed. Ober should be the #5 starter for the Twins or the #1 starter for the Saints.

Oh, the humanity! Looks like the classic thing a team would say when they would like to trade a guy and can't get enough value on the market. "We like him and adds value to us". My bet is that they tried to trade him, couldn't get much for him, and have decided to wait and see if the market comes to them through an injury or another team striking out in free agency. We didn't sign Gallo to have him play LF or 1B and then sign Taylor to be the backup CF all so we could put Kirilloff, Gordon and/or Larnach on the bench. We signed them because we thought we cold trade Kepler for MLB value. It looks like we can't get that value so far, so plan B is to use him as part of an OF/1B group and as a backstop in case Kirilloff can't go. The real issue if he stays is whether we play him at the expense of a Larncah, Gordon and/or Kirilloff. We know what Max is - very meh. Are those three better? Gordon was last year by a pretty wide margin, but that's one year. Who knows on Larnach or Kirilloff? One thing we do know is that we won't know on any of those 3 if they don't get to play. And if Kepler stays and Rocco plays him everyday like he has in the past at least 1 or 2 of them won't get to play much. That's my response to those of you who say "we have room, why not keep him", This isn't a cost free decision, there is a real opportunity cost to keeping Kepler on the roster and using thim the way Rocco has in the past. Doing that moves back the development of Larnach and Gordon for yet another year. To me, that's potentially problematic because this team wasn't good enough last year to contend and one of the big problems was the offense, We have to get better and getting someone better than Kepler to play every day in the outfield is an obvious way for us to get better offensive production. We lose that opportunity if we keep him. I'm not saying just give him away, but we should seriously be trying to trade him. My prediction is we do we eventually do so.

Well said. Let's accept Gallo for what he is when he's on - a high strikeout power hitter who will have a good to great OPS because he walks a lot, good fielding OF, runs well. There's room for a guy like that on this team. Not hitting in the 2-5 holes, but 6 or 7. If the last year is what he is, then we cut bait.

Kepler's average is highly unlikely to benefit by 30 points with the shift ban. The Athletic did an article on the effect of the shift and its impact on particular players using Statcast and other data. Kepler was not one of the players likely to heavily benefit, those were Corey Seager and Freddie Freeman types. You know, guys that hit the ball hard into the shift. Conversely, Kepler in 2022 had an average exit velocity (51st percentile), average hard hit rate (49th percentile) and a below average barrel rate (45th percentile). Max's problem isn't so much where he hits them as it is how hard he hits them - lot's of pop ups and soft ground balls. Removing the shift won't help either of those issues. I can't find the Athletic article but I recall that Max should get and extra 6-10 hits a year. Spread out over 525-550 ABS (standard for an everyday player), that's somewhere between 8 and 15 points of batting average, meaning Max might hit .235-.242 instead of his usual about .227. Also, these are by definition ground ball and shorter line drive hits, i.e., singles, so it won't improve his slugging percentage much or help him drive in a lot more runs. You know who might benefit a lot from banning the shift, at least when he doesn't strike out? Joey Gallo. His average exit velocity is in the 63rd percentile, his average hard hit rate is in the 94th percentile, and his average barrel rate is in the 98th percentile. Maybe the Front Office really does have a plan . . .

We're close to a contender. We still need a middle of the order bat and another quality reliever. How do we do this? Here's a radical plan. Four simple steps: 1. Trade Larnach, Ober, and either Salas or Emmanuel Rodriquez to the Pirates for Bryan Reynolds. Add in Martin or Reyes if you have to but then Pittsburg throws in a real A or A+ ball pitching or catching prospect, not filler, especially if you add in Reyes. Reynolds goes to LF every day, hits 3 in the order. The trade for Lopez and the emergence of SWR and Varland allows you to do this. 2. Sign Chafin if you can. If not, sign Fulmer. Bullpen done. 3. Trade Kepler for prospects, AA or lower and prioritize pitching or catching. Target the Yankees, Dodgers, or Cardinals as partners. They all need OFs now to better contend and have realistic hopes to contend. All 3 have decent or better systems. 4. Extend two of Mahle, Lopez, Maeda and Gray to ensure rotation stability. I vote for Lopez and Mahle if they are healthy. Also ok with Gray. Roster is now complete. The OF is Buxton, Gallo, and Reynolds, backed up by Taylor and Gordon. Starting IF is Kirilloff, Polanco, Correa, and Miranda, backed up by Farmer and Gordon. Catchers are Vasquez and Jeffers, Find another UTL for the last spot, maybe Willi Castro to start off with, or a 3rd Catcher. Don't sign a RH 1B/DH only type; get someone versatile. This is a placeholder for Lewis or Lee. Rotation is P Lopez, Gray, Ryan, Mahle and Maeda, with Varland, SWR, Balazovic, and Dobnak in the Saints rotation. BP is Duran, J Lopez, Jax, Chafin/Fulmer, Theilbar, Pagan, Moran, and Alcala, with Coloumbe, Stashak, Sands, and Megill at AAA for fill in duty or as a replacement if someone struggles. Batting order is Polanco, Correa, Reynolds, Buxton, Kirilloff, Miranda, Gallo, Vasquez/Jeffers, Gordon (as DH). This adds a bat for the middle of the order (albeit at a high cost), strengthens the bullpen, and still leaves us with a solid rotation with some depth. Big bet on Kirilloff but 1B could be Miranda with Farmer/Gordon/Lewis/Lee at 3B if Kirilloff doesn't hit or can't stay healthy. What do you guys think?

Here's a radical plan. Four simple steps: 1. Trade Larnach, Ober, and either Salas or Emmanuel Rodriquez to the Pirates for Bryan Reynolds. Add in Martin or Reyes if you have to but then Pittsburg throws in a real A or A+ ball pitching or catching prospect, not filler, especially if you add in Reyes. Reynolds goes to LF every day, hits 3 in the order. The trade for Lopez and the emergence of SWR and Varland allows you to do this. 2. Sign Chafin if you can. If not, sign Fulmer. Bullpen done. 3. Trade Kepler for prospects, AA or lower. Target the Yankees, Dodgers, or Cardinals as partners. They all need OFs now to contend better and have decent systems. 4. Extend two of Mahle, Lopez, Maeda and Gray to ensure rotation stability. I vote for Lopez and Mahle if they are healthy. Also ok with Gray. Roster is now complete. The OF is Buxton, Gallo, and Reynolds, backed up by Taylor and Gordon. Starting IF is Kirilloff, Polanco, Correa, and Miranda, backed up by Farmer and Gordon. Catchers are Vasquez and Jeffers, Find another UTL for the last spot, maybe Willi Castro to start off with, or a 3rd Catcher. Don't sign a RH 1B/DH only type; get someone versatile. This is a placeholder for Lewis or Lee. Rotation is P Lopez, Gray, Ryan, Mahle and Maeda, with Varland, SWR, Balazovic, and Dobnak the Saints rotation. BP is Duran, J Lopez, Jax, Chafin/Fulmer, Theilbar, Pagan, Moran, and Alcala, with Coloumbe, Stashak, and Megill at AAA for fill in duty or as a replacement if someone struggles. Batting order is Polanco, Correa, Reynolds, Buxton, Kirilloff, Miranda, Gallo, Vasquez/Jeffers, Gordon (as DH). This adds a bat for the middle of the order (albeit at a high cost), strengthens the bullpen, and still leaves us with a solid rotation with some depth. Big bet on Kirilloff but 1B could be Miranda with Farmer/Gordon/Lewis/Lee at 3B if Kirilloff doesn't hit or can't stay healthy. What do you guys think?

This. Polanco, Correa, Buxton, Miranda, and either Kirilloff or Larnach should be the top 5 hitters in the lineup, the last 3 in whatever order works (I actually prefer Kirilloff 3, Buxton 4 and Miranda 5). If Miranda is 5, Gallo is 6, LF is 7 (Larnach, Farmer or Kepler), Vasquez 8, and Gordon 9.

This is the conundrum, made even bigger by the presence of Larnach. No problem with keeping Kepler IF he's the 4th OF/defensive sub, hitting 7th or lower when he plays. The problem is that Rocco has been not only playing him every day, he often hits him in the top 6. The issue isn't that Kepler is a bad player. He's not; he's an above average fielder with a below average bat playing a premium offensive position. In other words, he's a below average RF overall. Conversely, Gordon outplayed him last year overall and Larnach has shown real promise. Keeping Kepler and playing him the way Rocco does creates a real lost opportunity cost by not giving that playing time and at bats to a guy who played better last year (Gordon) and a guy who has flashed a much higher upside (Laranch). Why on earth would we do that IF WE ARE TRYING TO GET BETTER as a Team? I want this team to contend THIS YEAR and I think we are close to that mark. The missing links include a better hitting OF than Kepler. I don't dislike the guy and would be fine with him playing 2-3 games a week against RH pitching but you just KNOW that Rocco won't do that. It's time to move on and I think a trade is the only way we can do that.

This is a tough one, and not for baseball reasons. I don’t think there’s any question that the Twins got the better side of the trade from a talent perspective. Pitching is worth more than hitting for average, and starting pitching is worth a lot more. The BTV ratings are very one sided the Twins way. Getting a solid #2 starter and the Marlins #5 prospect is a great return for a high average/OBP guy with no power, no defensive value, and bad knees. Still…. I liked the guy and I’m sorry to see him go. I was hoping they could get Lopez for Kepler and a prospect. Maybe now we trade Kepler for a RH hitting 1B or a solid reliever. I wish we could have kept Arraez but I do understand the trade.

Love the idea but you would have to add at least Larnach to Arraez and Kepler to get López and Luzardo, probably Larnach and a young pitcher like Reyna or Festa. Are you willing to pay that price? BTV says that’s the price to get those two pitchers.

This is the best rationale - why not see if he can get it back and besides, we don’t have anyone else at AAA on the way up to be blocked. I don’t know the minor league system well enough to know if the latter half of that is true. If it is, I guess why not? You have to have a quick finger on the trigger though. Give him 6-8 weeks to show something max.

MLB Trade Rumors is reporting that Blayne Enlow passed through waivers and has been outrighted to AA. I thought he might be part of a trade package or get picked up by a lesser team. Guess the FO knew better than I or many of us here did. I don't like everything they do but you have to give them props when they take a calculated risk and it works out.