LA Vikes Fan

Good point. There's a certain recency bias built in since Sheets is having a much better year this year than the other 3. It makes you think that Sheets is more of an "established" player than the other 3. Still, I feel like Sheets is more of a known quantity breaking out. Larnach may be that as well this year. Wallner and Kirilloff are more suspect as MLB hitters, especially Kirilloff. Plus Sheets is a decent OF, has a higher OBP, strikes out more like 20% of the time rather than 30%, and has a better all around game. Kirilloff and Larnach are adequate at best in the OF. Wallner is a boom or bust hitter, but a decent OF. I just like Sheets' all around game better. Unless we re-sign Kepler we are looking for 2 corner OFs for next year. Adding Sheets gives us one more option there and I think he's likely to be within the top 2 if you add the other 3.

The contract looks pretty good right now based on the way he's playing and you have to remember two things that make it look even better. First, is making 33.3 million this year and will make 37.3 next year, and then his contract starts going DOWN in value. He gets 32.8 million in 2026, 31.8 million in 2027, 31.3 million in 2028, and then vesting options that started 25 million and go all the way down to 10 million. In other words, the Twins are paying premium prices for his premium years but not for his declining years. Unlike a lot of baseball contracts, frankly most of them, the Twins are not looking at a long stretch of paying somebody top $ when they can't really play that well. Also, by the way, with salary elation being what it has been, I expect that $31 million contract in 2028 and not even be in the top 10 or 20 contracts in baseball. Almost as important, signing Correa made this team relevant on the national scene and relevant to other players. This signing made other players look at the Twins as a real team trying to compete and win, not just some nice team that developed players and then lost them to richer franchises. I really think that will rebound to our benefit in keeping the players we have who will want to play with him and think we can compete with him, and also in getting that second tier of free agents to consider coming to Minnesota. The Twins are never going up pay well enough to compete for the high-end free agents, but that second tier should now have us on their list of potential destinations. That is a big deal if we want to compete. Sometimes it's better to be lucky than good. This was a great signing.

While I would love to pick up Crochet or Robert, I think the chances of it us getting either are very small and the cost would be very high. Those guys are probably going to cost us at least one and maybe two of our Top 100 global prospects, something like Lee or Emma plus Festa or Gonzalez, plus some solid AA guys. That's just too high a price and too good a player to be given to a division rival. The only way we get a shot at a guy like that if the White Sox trade him to another team who then trades them to us. I'm not thrilled with giving up much for Fedde. He very well may be a one-year wonder coming over from the KBO after originally not making it here. Plus, he is probably get a cost at least a Luke Keschall plus kind of package. Gavin Sheets does sound interesting. Maybe he could be had for a package of two or three solid but not top prospects. Say Zebbie Matthews or Marco Raya plus De Andrade, and may be adding in an A ball lottery ticket Something like that. We are going to have need in the corner OF next year unless Kepler is re-signed. Right now, were looking at starting two from the group of Castro, Larnach, Wallner, and Martin. There's not much else in AAA other than maybe Keirsey and Emma is more of a mid-2025 guy I think. I like to keep Castro in the utility role. He's great in that role and his bat plays there, not sure if it plays up enough to be an every day corner outfielder. . Playing two of the other three every day strikes me as a major crapshoot. I would definitely inquire on Sheets and at least see if he can be had for a reasonable price. By the way, I'd also be checking in wiht the Angels on Tyler Anderson and Taylor Ward pretty much every week.

I was thinking the same thing until I looked at Abreu's performance in 2023 and so far in 2024. 2023 - .237/.296/.383(.680) in 594 PAs, 540 ABs, with 18 HRs, 90 RBIs, and an 87 OPS+. Frankly, Santana has been better at the plate and is miles ahead of Abreu with the glove. Maybe 2023 was just an off year? So far in 2024 - .124/.167/.195(.361) with a 4 OPS+. Not 44, 4. Just one 4. He looks done. Still, if there was any way to get Abreu back to even 85-90% of the player he was from 2014-20222 . . .His career slash line with the White Sox from '14-'22 is .292/.354/.506 (.860), averaging roughly 30 HRs and 110 RBIs. A man can dream . .

The twins need a frontline starter (or young pitcher capable of becoming one), middle of the order bat, leadoff hitter, and a late inning LH reliever. The only one here that might interest me is Sears. He could maybe be that kind of starter but looks more like a guy you trade for if one of your starters goes down. The rest don't look like they fit. I would be willing to trade from surplus for a guy like Erceg or even Harris. Maybe we could trade a package of secondary prospects headlined by Severino, Helman, Keirsey, Keaschall, or Schobel plus others for Erceg or Harris? Beyond that, hard to see a fit here.

Agreed. Absent injury I wouldn’t promote him before the All Star break. He’s coming out of a very big hole so we need to see consistency. Let’s not forget, it’s not like Wallner was a consistently good major-league bat last year. He was very good in May, hit below .210 in June, July and August, albeit with real power, and then had a big rise and September when other teams are throwing their AAA pitchers. He was overmatched in the playoffs, horrendous in spring training, and completely unplayable in April. He has yet to show he could be a successful, consistent major-league hitter. Let’s first make him show. He can be a successful, consistent, AAA hitter over a six weeks span before we think about bringing him up.

The lineup is on MLB.com. Don't know how to copy and paste from there. Same lineup as yesterday except Miranda is playing 3B and hitting 5th, Correa moves up to the 3 hole, Margot in LF hitting 8th, and Vasquez is catching hitting 9th. Lewis, Jeffers, Martin all on the bench.

Not me. The problem is that C prospect isn't going to get you anyone any good. Casey Leguima got us Kyle Farmer. We don't need another Farmer, Margot, Santana, etc. type. We need a middle of the order bat, frontline starter or "late and close" reliever. We already have a pretty good roster of B/B+ MLB players with a couple of A/A- guys in Correa and hopefully Lewis. We need A rental guys if the goal is to really up our chances this year - Pete Alonso, Mason Miller, Chris Bassitt - and those guys are going to cost us. Trades for those kind of rentals start with someone like Brooks Lee, Festa, or Emma, and we'd have to add some good prospects with them. I don't think that's worth it. There may be some marginal value for the FO trading a C prospect like Schobel, Severino, or De Andrade for a middle reliver or back end starter. But that's not going to put us over the top into contention so why do it for a one year rental? My point is the kind of rental that might really help is going to cost a lot of prospect capital and we just aren't good enough to take that shot this year and suffer the damage in future years. Others may differ,

Starting pitching is the most valuable asset in baseball and the hardest to find. I personally don't think Varland will make it as a starter because he can't find a third quality pitch, much less a fourth. A guy with two quality pitches belongs in the bullpen and Varland could be very good in that role. We saw evidence of that last year. Still, I think you have to give him one last shot as a starter this year. We need the depth this year and he could be extremely valuable if he can develop into a starter. I expect them to leave him at AAA as the 6th starter and bring him up for the bullpen in late August if he isn't needed in the rotation. I think that's the right thing to do this year. The long term decision time comes next year.

I don't see anything interesting here. As I've said in other posts, I don't think the Twins should be trading for any rental players. We aren't close enough to real contention to push our chips in for this year by trading prospects. Besides, none of these guys really move the needle. Manaea would have been interesting a couple of years ago for the reasons Matt posits but now he's 32, costs roughly $15m a year, and doesn't offer much better performance than Ober, Paddack, or Woods-Richardson. He's someone you look at IF there's a significant injury to one of the starting 5 AND Varland doesn't perform. BTW, I am enjoying this series going through selling teams to see if there's anything we want to pursue. The more we do that though the more convinced I become that the only real targets for trades are Jesus Luzardo of the Marlins and Tyler Anderson, Luis Rengifo, and Taylor Ward of the Angels. All have at least one year of control after 2024 at a reasonable cost. The only rentals I would consider are Pete Alonso - but he will cost a lot of prospect capital and is going back to the Mets after the season - and Jesse Winker of the Nationals. Winker is cheap and shouldn't cost us too much in prospect capital, although I'm not sure how much of an upgrade he really is over Margot if an upgrade at all. I really hope that the FO is talking now with the Marlins and the Angels. I expect the Twins to do very little at the trade deadline other than possibly moving Margot or Farmer for A or A+ ball types to clear room for Lee, Julien, or Wallner. Frankly, I think that's the best approach. We're in playoff contention but not in "win more than one playoff series" contention. This is a year to set up next year by playing guys like Miranda, Martin, Lee, etc. so we have a solid fixed lineup for next season that doesn't require us to sign one year vets like Santana and Margot. If we can get there, THEN we can make a move by trading prospects/young MLB guys for a big bat or frontline pitcher. That sounds like more of an offseason move to me.

I suspect you're right and would go even a step father - Vasquez and Santana are here for the year. I would hope that the catching is more 60/40 or even 65/35 Jeffers come August and September, and that Miranda is playing 75% of the time and at least in a 50/50 time share at 1B with Santana by then. I see a slow transition to next year where Jeffers is the starting Catcher 2/3 of the time and Miranda the primary 1B. Margot and Farmer are Wild Cards whose status almost entirely depends on the play of others. If Lee and Julien are both ready to play regularly at the MLB level in July, there is no room for Farmer on the roster. If only one or neither is, or if there is a significant injury to Correa or Lewis (God forbid), Farmer is here for the rest of the year. If Martin hits and either Wallner shows he can return to what he was in the good items of 2023 or Keirsey forces his way up, there is no place for Margot. People complain about Martin's lack of power but Margot has no power either. Both Farmer and Margot's situation is also complicated by their salaries for 2025 - both are likely FA but probably expect to be in the same range as this year - Margot at $10m (2025 mutual $12m option with a $2m buyout), and Farmer at $6.3m (2025 $6.25m mutual option, 250K buyout). There is an almost Zero chance either will be back at anything close to that kind of a number. I suspect the plan is to ease them out IF we have someone who deserves a look as their replacements, particularly since is far from given that Kepler will be back next year. Bottom line is that absent injury I expect Santana and Vasquez to be here for the rest of 2023, with their playing time decreasing as the season wears on. Margot and Farmer are much more at risk but likely to be here all year unless someone really forces the FO's hand. We have 6 weeks or so to make these decisions so now is the time if you're any of the AAA guys.

Well put. The recent hot streaks from these four have been great but we shouldn't expect them to continue. All 4 look like serviceable vets, Santana maybe a little better than that. We can win with guys like this; it's just you don't win because of guys like this. I'd like to see a little more Miranda at 1B this year with a little less Santana to set us up for next year. Other than that, they do provide some back of the roster value and Rocco is using them the right way. Let's be honest, it's not like any of these 4 are holding back another Royce Lewis or even another Jose Miranda from getting a shot. The only AAA guys who look like they've earned that shot are Martin (now back up) and maybe Helman. Until we have a viable replacement who can perform at least as well, I see no reason not to keep these guys around.

I'd rather have Martin at 2B with Castro back to his UTL role.

Actually, Miranda is better against RH pitching - .814 OPS v .669 against L:H pitching. So is Correa, .855 v. .698, and Jeffers, .822 v .772. The year to date stats may be a little misleading since they include LH at bats against RH pitching by Wallner, .531 against RH pitching, Julien at .673, and Santana at .679. Wallner and Julien are in the minors now. Swap out Santana for Miranda at 1B against some RH pitching and the problem lessens quite a bit. Plus RH hitters tend to hit same sided pitching better than LH hitters. I'm not too worried about this. We still have the Miranda/Margot platoon in LF, and now Castro is available to play RF against LH pitching where he has a .955 OPS, instead of Kepler if we let Martin take over 2B.

Agreed, and I think too soon on Wallner. He's hitting now, but it's only been a week or so after 2 months of being pretty putrid. Maybe he's fixed the hole in his swing, maybe the pitching hasn't been good enough to expose that hole over the last week or so. Wallner needs to hit well for at least the rest of June before he should even be considered. I see him as an after ASB call up at the earliest unless there is an injury. The two main options who might help the Twins now are Martin and Helman. One of them is coming up today now that Kirilloff is being optioned to AAA, probably Martin. One of those two is probably the right call. The other intriguing possibility is Brooks Lee coming up to play 2B. It's probably too soon but it is an interesting possibility. 2B is the position we need to fill so either Martin, Helman or Lee could be a possibility. Call up a 2B, and move Castro to his UTL role. That's the best move.

This had to happen. Kirilloff was not hitting, was hurting us defensively, and clogging up the lineup by taking at bats away from Larnach. Larnach is hitting and also needs the development time. I'm actually in the camp that Larnach's improvement this year on breaking balls may mean that he can be solid consistent major league hitter with OPS above .750 and 20 HRs a year. Let's play him at least four days a week and find out if that's possible. I actually hope they call up either Martin or even Helman. Our greatest need is at 2B, not at 1B or LF. I see Lewis, Santana, and Miranda as essentially a three-man group covering 3B, 1B, and DH. All three are playing well and deserve to play pretty much every day. Larnach and Margot are actually forming a pretty good platoon tandem in LF. I was one of the guys with a torch and pitchfork to run Margot out of town in May, He has been one of our best hitters since about May 15 along with Miranda. What we really need is someone that can play 2B and potentially lead off so Castro can go back to his preferred role as a super utility playing four days a week for other guys, including being the backup CF, and doing some pinch hitting and pinch running. I would really think about giving either Martin or Helman some run at 2B since Julien is still not hitting in AAA. Both have high OBPs in AAA (Martin .466, Helman .365), and could potentially be a leadoff hitter. We need a true lead off hitter bad. I would start them in the number nine spot see how they hit but I would play them regularly see if there's something there. The hope would be that whoever we call up can lead off or even be that "second leadoff hitter" in the 9 hole while consistently playing a solid 2B, That would really improve the lineup.

I think that’s the point. I made this point another thread. The Twins should be looking to trade for a starting pitcher and a middle of the bat but only someone that has years of control remaining after 2024. We are not good enough that trading a prospect of any value for a rental player makes sense. I would love to see them put a package together for Luzardo and would be willing to give up a top-tier prospect to do that. Garrett is only worth a second tier guy as a headliner, but I think that’s worth it as well. Miami has no one I want on the hitting side.

Agreed there. My view is to option Kirilloff to AAA to try to fix his issues, not cut him, unless he has value in a trade. I think he has very little trade value right now, certainly not as a trade centerpiece. The only two in AAA who look like they might deserve a shot in MLB are Martin and Helman. Helman could help by playing 2B but really would be a replacement for Farmer unless we make Castro the every day LF and Helman the every day 2B. Martin gives us another RH OF where Margot has done very well lately - .429/.500.714 (.1,214) over the last 7 games (14 ABs), .346/.433/538 (. 973) over the last 15 (26 ABs). His last 30 games (67 ABs) might be the better comp - .269/.319/.358 (.677). The latter is kind of who he's been over his career. He's really helped the last couple of weeks but is clearly at RH platoon player, not an everyday player. So, the only answer I really see other than trotting Alex out there and hoping things improve would be to send Kirilloff to AAA to play 1B every day with Julien at 2B, and calling up Helman to play 2B on a regular basis with Farmer there a couple of days a week against LH pitching. Castro plays some OF when Buxton or Kepler sit, since he's a better RH hitter than LH, and around the diamond on other days to give guys breathers. Margot and Larnach are the LF platoon. Might not be a bad idea: Helman is 28, broke through in 2022 and 2023, and has continued to hit. If he's ever going to get a shot, pretty soon may be the only time.

Harsh comp, but pretty accurate. A lot of folks thought Mazara was only one step from stardom in Texas and it just never came. Instead he regressed, much like Kirilloff is doing this year. Kirilloff's power is a conundrum. He seems to hit more deep or warning track fly ball outs to left center than any LH hitter I've ever seen. Yet he rarely hits a hard line drive to that same area and not much hard contact to right or right center. Is that launch angle thing, is he selling out for power, or is that just his "normal" stroke? Whatever it is, what he is doing is not working and is unlikely to work in the future.

I agree with your premise. Larnach and Miranda appear to be passing Kirilloff in the hierarchy this season. There will very soon be no room left in the Inn for him. Frankly, I think he would already be in AAA if there was someone there with a strong case for promotion who wasn't injured.

You're probably right. I know it's been only 10 starts but he looks like a potential long term mid rotation rotation fixture with 5(?) years of control after 2024. That's a very valuable asset. He might be "untouchable" at this point. Varland, less so.

Either SWR or Varland in a deal for Luzardo would be a good call, depending on what went with them of course. It would be ironic if we traded SWR and Martin for Luzardo, thereby completing the what did we get for Jose Berrios loop.

Agreed. Whatever we do, don't trade for a two month rental player. That player isn't going to make us a WS contender this year unless Aaron Judge is available. We should only consider trading for guys with control or a reasonable contract through at least 2025. That makes the choices actually fairly simple. We need another starter and a middle of the order bat. The available starters that are any good (at least this year) and fit this criteria are Jesus Luzardo (2.5 years of control), Tyler Anderson ($13m for 2024 and 2025, prorated for rest of 2024), Garrett Crochet (800K in 2024, arb eligible 2025 and 2026), Zach Littell (1.85M 2024, arb eligible 2025), and Erick Fedde ($7.5m/year 2024 and 2025, prorated for rest of 2024). I think we can assume the White Sox either won't trade with us or will ask for the moon, and Littell is just back of the rotation filler, so really the options are Luzardo and Anderson. On the bat side, the pickings are even slimmer for controllable players. It really boils down to Taylor Ward (.247/.324/.431(.753), 11 HRs, arb through 2026), Luis Rengifo (.316/.367/.448(.815), arb thru 2025), Jazz Chisholm (.249/.316/.429(.745), can play CF, arb through 2026), and Lane Thomas (.218/.285/.338(.623), arb through 2025). There is one rental bat that might be available and not cost too much - Jesse WInker. He's slashing .261/.375/.396 (.771). He's on a one year $2m contract. I would trade a non-pitcher Tier 4 or 5 guy for him. Pete Alonso sounds good until you realize that his contract is $20.5m AND he intends to return to the NY Mets after the season if they trade him. He will also cost a lot in prospects since the teams that think they are really close to WS contention will come after him. Not worth it. I would love to see us go to Miami for Luzardo or to the Angels for Anderson and Rengifo, would take Ward instead of Rengifo if necessary since he can play LF. Getting Rengifo really helps at 2B but then we have the issue of what we do we do with Julien and Lee. I would be willing to trade a Tier 2 and Tier 4 player for Luzardo - maybe Festa and Gonzalez plus an A ball guy not Soto. As for Anderson PLUS either Rengifo or Ward, a 3 and a 4 or two 3s depending on which one you get - Something like Keschall, Raya, and filler or Raya, Gonzalez, and Schobel. Have to assume that at least one of the traded players will be a pitcher. You almost always have to trade pitching to get pitching.

Why not indeed? I wonder if Varland is getting showcased for a possible trade. Assuming we are trying to get another starter like Luzardo or even Tyler Anderson, the Marlins or Angels will want a young controllable pitcher back as part of the package. Bringing up Varland does make one wonder if he could fill that role in a trade. Good for the Twins if we get the right guy (Luzardo), good for the other team because they get a possible starter who is at worst a strong late inning reliever/closer type and is pre-arbitration, and good for Varland who gets to go to a team that will let him sink or swim as a starter in a low pressure environment. Just food for thought.

I would rather see Festa or Boushley than Varland. I think Louis has a lot more to work on on the farm given his performance there.