LA Vikes Fan

I've heard that a lot about Julien - can't play 3B. We want to keep his bat in the lineup when polanc returns, at least against RH starters. Why can't Julien play 3B? Arm strength? If he can't, can Polanco throw well enough to play 3B? Need to have them both in the lineup. Maybe Julien at 1B, Kirilloff in LF and Polanco at 2B? When you only have 3-5 hitters and 2 of them play the same position, you gotta get creative.

Which is why I think Kepler is the twins RF in 2024. Gallo goes and Walner and Larnach fight it out for LF.

I think you're right - Kepler will be the RF next year if he even hits a little less than his career average of .231/.315/.427 this year and has 20 or so HRs. Larnach has been at best inconsistent at the MLB level and Wallner has all of 76 MLB ABs, only 19 this year. I cna't see them dumping Kepler and Gallo, and it's hard for me to see the Twins re-signing Gallo unless thing tick up a whole bunch from where they are now. It's looking more and more like the "mistake" that blocks giving Wallner his shot was picking up Joey Gallo. Hopefully we kind find a home for him by the trade deadline in return for an average reliever or maybe A Ball lottery ticket or two so Wallner can get a shot. I can't see the Twins opening up both RF and LF this year or next when the only thing between them and more Garlick is an inconsistent Larnach and an untested Wallner. Let's open one spot and at least get the "untested" issue solved.

There actually are trades that work out for both teams. I think this is one of them. Both teams got what they needed and both players are performing at a very high level. Add in that we signed Lopez through 2027 for roughly 18.5m a season, and the Marlins get two more years of arbitration before Arraez becomes a free agent and everybody wins. I'll cheer for Luis and hope he hits .350 while I cheer for the Twins and hope Lopez wins multiple playoff games. I think both will happen.

Hader, Barlow or David Robertson could be very interesting depending on the price. On the hitting side, Lane Thomas would be a really good get and Teoscar Hernandez or Tommy Pham could help, again depending on the price. Jurickson Profar initially sounded a little interesting but I wouldn't give up much for him. I live in LA so I've seen the Cody Bellinger show up close and personal. Can be great, can be awful, and you never know what you're going to get. Given his contract and the cost to get him he's a pass for me. Candelario might be nice for the next 4-6 weeks if we could get him NOW but where does Lewis play when he comes back? Nobody else moves the needle much for me.

I agree. You need to have both guys who get on base and power guys. Most importantly you have to play the style that best suits your personnel. We don't have the personnel for a small ball approach. To be sure, some of that is self inflicted by the batting coaches and by picking up FAs like Gallo, although i do want to mention we also picked up Solano, the polar opposite of Gallo. Good offensive teams are balanced with TTO guys and OBP guys. We are just too far on the power/TTO side, especially now that Lewis is out. You can see the difference when Correa and Buxton stop selling out for power and the team starts to score more or at least put more pressure on their opponent's pitching and defense. I'd love to see us pick up a higher BA/OPB guy at the trade deadline. I'm just not willing to give up much for him. Why? Because unless they hit over .300 with an over.800 OPS they aren't worth much, and they really aren't worth much unless they hit in front of higher SLG % guys.

You're probably right and that's one of the reasons that my conclusion was to not trade Gray because I just don't see the return out there for him unless we're willing to take prospects who are at least a year or two away from the bigs. The Twins aren't in the right spot to trade pitching for prospects. I'd rather give Gray a QO and get a first round pick next year. I don't like the idea of trading our better prospects for someone like Goldschmidt (even if we could) because this team isn't one guy away from WS contention. Besides, acquiring Goldschmidt requires Kirilloff to move to the OF. I'd rather he stay and develop as the long term 1B. Bottom line for me - if there's someone wiling to give up a middle reliver or even a good A or decent AA prospect for Gallo, let's do it and bring up Wallner or Larnach to replace him. If we can trade a blocked prospect like Miranda for a blocked RH hitting OF prospect from someone else, let's do that. Otherwise, let's roll with what we have.

I don't see the FO doing a lot a the deadline this year because there isn't a lot to trade except pitching and I don't think they like to trade pitching. Who could/should we trade that would bring a return? Sonny Gray, maybe one of Kepler/Gallo, and one of Larnach/Wallner? Not much else out there that would get us much back. Polanco is hurt, Miranda can't hit, Maeda is 35 and just back from TJ. hard to see getting much back from trading any of them. To me, the wild card is Gray. I suspect they have approached or will approach him about a 2-3 year extension so they know if that's possible and at what price. They could make him a qualifying offer and get a first or second round pick if he signs elsewhere. He will want to test free agency because at 33, this is his last chance for a high value (18-22m/year) multi year deal. I would trade Gray only if part of the return is an established RH hitting MLB OF, an established late inning RP (each with at least 1.5 years of control left), or a younger OF already at the MLB level with high upside. I would be willing to throw in Larnach or Wallner for the right deal, either with Gray or with Gallo to move him of of the roster. I would look at the Angels who need players after all of the injuries, and also St. Louis. The problem with the Angels is they haven't got anything we want unless they're willing to trade Micky Moniak or give us Hunter Renfroe cheap. I also looked at the Giants, Diamondbacks and Astros - not a lot there either. Here's two Gray trades vetted through MLB trade values: Twins get Dylan Carlson, Cardinals get Gray and either Miranda alone or Gallo plus a mid level prospect Twins get Jake McCarthy and Drey Jameson, Diamondbacks get Sonny Gray and Miranda The first one is interesting, the second one a little less so. Bottom line, I keep Gray and give him a QO, trade Gallo for whatever level prospect you can get or a reliever like Gallegos or Hicks from St. louis , call up Wallner to play LF, and roll with what you got.

Agreed. I wonder if moving Buxton to LF would help? He can probably play LF without a lot of practice time. I'm not sure how much that helps the lineup since CF would still need to be a mix of MAT and Castro. Would open up the DH spot to rotate guys through, but still doesn't stop the real roster issue - we shouldn't have both Kepler and Gallo. One (this week my vote is Gallo) should go.

I like the idea of Solano at 3B if he can play that position competently. If he can, that opens up 2B for Julien while still keeping Solano's bat in the lineup. Miranda looks awful at the plate so far and he can start Friday against a LH pitcher. I would venture to say that Mirana may not survive the All Star break on the MLB roster if Solano can play 3B. Farmer can platoon at 2B with Julien, and he and Castro are the UTl infielders. Miranda down, Wallner up after the ASG unless Polanco is back and ready to replace Mirnada on the roster.

Yes it's the Royals but let's enjoy the moment while it's here. Who knows, maybe this continues. A girl can dream, right?

Mike's comment is the other factor to consider that you omitted - where is this team going next year and beyond? I understand being "satisfied" but not thrilled with another Kepler kind of year - .230/.315/.420 in the short term. I think people were very down on Kepler because we weren't even getting that until this recent hot streak. The bigger question is where we going with this? Kepler has an option next year at $10 million. That's more than the Twins were willing to pay for Eddie Rosario, who was a better player or at least a better hitter. Short of Kepler continuing this hot streak for the rest of the season, it sure seems unlikely that the Twins will pick up that option. If you start with the assumption that the current team's ceiling is a division title and maybe a couple of playoff wins or one playoff series win, the hope is we would improve going into next year to be a true contender. In order to do that, we need to know if Wallner or Larnach is an upgrade over Kepler and/or Gallo. The only way to find out is to play them on at least a semi regular basis at the MLB level. Keeping both Kepler and Gallo on the roster essentially makes that impossible. So where were headed is to a 2024 season without Kepler and/or Gallo and a complete mystery as to whether our current players can fill that gap. That's not a good way to run a railroad. I'd be fine with keeping Kepler this year if we traded Gallo and gave Wallner some run in left field. I am not as high on Wallner as are others here because of his high strikeout rate in the minors and his brutal defense, but he did have an intriguing short run last month so I think it's worth giving him a shot. Let's see if he can actually be a solid contributor or whether he's another high strikeout, bad defending, occasional power guy.

I'd be fine with Polanco at 3B if we think his arm is strong enough. That would open up 2B for a combination of Julien and Solano. It also might save some wear and tear on Polanco. He can then move back to 2B once Lewis is ready to come back in August.

I think this was the book on him before his breakout season in 2021. Good bat to ball skills but swings at a lot of pitches where he can't make good contact. They got him to focus only on stuff he could drive in 20222. Now pitchers have adjusted to his hot zones and he needs to make solid contact throughout the strike zone and lay off pitches outside the strike zone. Unfortunately, he's had a few balls called strikes early in the count and he gets very defensive, just tries to make contact and gets nothing good going. He's hitting afraid a little bit. Small sample size, but I don't think he's going to get much benefit being in the Bigs and should go back to AAA. I would try Julien and even Solano at 3B so they have a place to play when Polanco comes back by month end. If they don't have the arm, then a Castro/Farmer mix is the answer. Bring up Wallner and see what he can do in LF, with Gallo playing CF with Taylor.

I agree. My thought was to see if we are sacrificing power as measured by slugging % in order to increase OBP and decrease our strikeout %. I'm really curious to see if adopting a better two strike approach and/or a more contact oriented approach is having a decreasing effect on overall power. It seems like the conventional wisdom is that by being more contact oriented, even if its only with two strikes, that teams sacrifice a lot of power/extra base hits. I think that's wrong and would love to see the data to see. Is there a source to find that data?

Thanks for doing this. . It would be interesting to track slugging % and runs per game. It might be a way to see if the new emphasis on contact and a better two strike approach has lead to more runs and how it has effected power.

Good analysis. The high strikeout guys problem is exacerbated when you look at the AAA roster - the best player is Wallner, another high strikeout (80 SOs in 225 ABs), feast or famine guy. Same for Larnach and Williams - both over 35% SO guys. Is there someone at AAA who's more of the sparkplug, high OBP guy? Julien was supposed to be that guy but he has 48 SOS in 120 MLB ABs and only 15 walks. Early yes, but his SO rate is going up lately, not down. Looking at the stats, is Andrew Stevenson an answer? Hard to buy that since he wasn't great for the Nationals in part time duty with a .687 career OPS and he's 29 years old. To me, the bottom line is that the players currently on the roster have to make the adjustments. This starts with Correa, Buxton, and Kepler (since we seem to be stuck with him). Let's see if that happens. If things don't change stringerbell is right, we won't win this awful division.

Agreed. You don't get results calling out individuals unless you're willing to lose those individuals from the team. Those individuals are counseled in private and the rest of the team knows who they are. Calling out insufficient effort by the group is a good start of a shake up. Now Rocco needs to put his money where his mouth is and either sit or lose players who don't make the adjustments he's looking for. I'm looking to see who loses playing time or is demoted/let go to reinforce the message.

To add to my earlier post - how to get the spots to keep Wallner, Julien, Kirilloff, Lewis and Miranda on the team? Need two spots, three when Polanco is ready (his absence is being keenly felt in my opinion). DFA/trade Gallo, Il Buxton until he can play in the field at least 3-4 days a week, and DFA/trade Kepler. Do it, and do it now.

Agree with all of the criticisms of both Rocco and the players. The better question is - what are we going to do about it? Rocco says the approaches by players aren't working. Ok, sit those players. Sit them every day. that probably means no ABs for Gallo or Kepler and MAY make the FO do the right thing and replace them with Wallner and Miranda. Drop Buxton to 6 or 7 in the Order and make him work his way up. Same for Correa. Let the younger LH hitters face LH pitching and see if they improve. Run a daily top of 5 of something like Julien/Solano, Lewis, Kirilloff/Miranda, Jeffers. Wallner, with Castro in there when Vasquez catches, and then find spots for guys like Buxton, Correa, and Taylor. Put Polanco on the 2 hole when he returns and find a way to keep Julien on the roster even if it means losing Solano or Castro. This team needs to be shaken up and Rocco controls the lineup card. Put your money where your mouth is and use it. Will this kind of a lineup be better? Who knows. I do know one hitting though, it's unlikely to be worse. Don't rip the players for their approach and then leave them in the same spots. Tie spots to actual production.

Hey guys, Brock Stewart just went on the IL with right elbow soreness. Get ready for Pagan in a lot more medium high to high leverage situations. On the positive side, here's is a shot for Balazovic, Headrick and Winder to get a good BP slot (Ortega is a long shot). Hope somebody steps up.

I agree with one addition. He not only can't play in the field, he's pretty clearly not himself at the plate either. I really wonder if the better idea would be to just shut him down through the All Star break. Bring up Wallner and/or Miranda and let Buxton heal up for the second half. These half measures aren't working. Let's find out if Wallner can force a spot and try to heap up Buxton at the same time.

Let's be honest guys, Kepler's mini hot streak probably got him leave to stay until the All Star break at least. In fact he's playing and hitting 3rd tonight! I'll cheer for the guy but I think we all know that he's at the end of the line by year end, or at least we won't pick up the option. Gallo, on the other hand, is lost at the plate. I live in LA and he looks like the same guy who hit .162/.277/.393 (.671) for the Dodgers last year. While I never hope for illness or injury, I'd love to see something happen for Wallner (or Andrew Stevenson) to get up to the Twins and show what he can do. I found myself almost wishing that Buxton's back spasms required an IL stay so Wallner could come up and hit. Miranda is also now hitting well in AAA, Larnach not so much. I don't see them DFAing either Gallo or Kepler, and neither one of them have any trade value to speak of, so I think Wallner and/or Miranda's only way up is an Il stint opening a spot.

Agreed. Kepler is what he's been outside of 2019 - a good defensive OF who is a well below average hitter for a corner OF (only below avg. for the league as a whole, but corner OFs need to be above average hitters because it's an offense first position). He could have a role a on a contending team as a 4th OF but he won't play CF. I'd even be ok with him on the Twins if we didn't have Gallo and he was playing 2-3 times a week tops. Kepler and Galo are below average players and are redundant. Lose at least one of them, preferably both. Kep Kepler if you only lose one. Bring up Wallner to give his bat a shot. This team needs offense more than defense from the corner OFs. It's past time to find out if Wallner can help provide that missing offense.

Hey, he's 30, not 26 or 28. His athleticism may be starting to tail off a bit. Or his legs still are a little off from the earlier injury. Either of those would explain the drop-off. Now what explains how much he plays? You got me there.