LA Vikes Fan

Isn't the worst case scenario that Snell gets hurt and opts in for $31m next year? I think that's the risk the Twins won't take. He does have a checkered injury history and frankly a checkered performance history in terms of innings an starts. Otherwise, I'd be right there with you. It's just hard for me to see the Twins taking that level of risk. BTW, Tyler Anderson has a 2.96 ERA, albeit with a 4.15 FIP. He's a 2/3 starter in front of a team with good IF defense. The Twins have that. I think he would slot at least even with Ryan behind Lopez and Ober.

Agreed. Snell isn't the answer and this team can't/won't take the risk of another injury leaving them with a $31m player o the 60 day IL. There are some realistic targets out there that we should be willing to spend some real prospect capital on though. By that I mean that any prospect outside the top 6 should be available (top 6 are Lee, Jenkins, Rodriguez, Festa, Keaschall, Mathews). I'd even be willing to trade two of the next 10 for the right player. The window is open this year - if we can catch Cleveland we should get the second seed. That means a bye and a likely matchup against the AL West winner in the ALDS, not Cleveland, the Yankees or Baltimore. We can beat Houston or Seattle and all of a sudden we're in the ALCS against whichever of those 3 teams survive the gauntlet (prob Baltimore). One good series and we're playing the WS. Get a real mid rotation starter - Tyler Anderson, Fedde, or maybe Kikuchi or Taillon. Get a quality reliever, hopefully LH but quality is more important - Fairbanks, Tanner Scott, Taylor Rogers, or at least the level of Erceg or Kopech. Think about picking up Luis Rengifo from the Angels. Be willing to even give up a Larnach if you need to; he and Wallner are basically duplicative and there's likely only starting room for one next year. Trade Kepler for prospects if we need to free up payroll. That will be a sad day but he's gone after this year any way. The window is open. Take advantage.

Skubal is one of the top 5 starters in baseball. Detroit can keep him through 2026. They are close, maybe even playoff competitive next year. Why on earth would they trade him? If he’s available, they can have any two Twins prospects not named Lee or Jenkins. Today.

Having Dobnak on this run, Festa showing well against Philly, and Matthews’ great performance this year on his way up the chain should eliminate the need to trade for a back end innings eater fifth starter mediocre veteran type. We can fill that role through these three guys and who knows, maybe Varland will find it again, too. Alll of this is a real step forward That doesn’t mean we don’t need another starting pitcher. We do if only to improve our trajectory and give us a chance to win the division. Winning the division and getting the second seed is a possibility this year and we should go for hard since that makes the playoff run much, much easier. It gets us a bye and probably keeps us away from the Yankees in the second round. I hope We are competing for Anderson or even Kikuchi to upgrade the rotation with a middle of the rotation type guy. If we can’t do at least that well, there’s no point in trading for a veteran starter just to eat innings on the backend. Dobnak and Festa (probably as a bulk after an opener) can do that, And Matthews and even Caleb Bousley, can you give us a starter two down the stretch. Count me in on the “trade for a starter with at least Ober level performance or don’t trade for one at all” train. I might amend that to the “Ryan level” since frankly, Ober has been better than Ryan for the last month or so.

Another one down. Eflin to Baltimore for 3 prospects. Getting more and more to look like Kikuchi, Tyler Anderson, or bust. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/07/orioles-to-acquire-zach-eflin-from-rays.html

I haven't been defending Margot, but I haven't seen an answer yet to the real problem from any one else - who plays LF/DH against a LH starter if nor Margot? Can't be Larnach or Wallner with their less than sterling OPS of .583 and .143 this year, following a less than impressive .412 and .483 last year, respectively. The inability to hit LH pitching by those 2 is why Margot is on the roster. I'd love to see him gone or at least only starting against LH pitching and not brought in but we got to have somebody. We can't be in a pennant race and throw Larnach and Wallner out there against LH pitching as almost automatic outs. Maybe we dump Margot and the lineup against LH pitching has Castro in LF, Lee at 2B, Lewis/Santana/Miranda at 1B/3B/DH in various combos, with Martin and Farmer as the RH OF and 2B backup in case of injury. Essentially trading Margot's ABs for ABs for Lee. Not sure that's an upgrade, probably a down grade offensively. Requires Correa back though and I don't know when that will be unless we're comfortable with a Lee/Martin combo in the IF against LH starters. I wonder if Margot is a bad option except when considering the other options. . .

I suspect that the Twins will try to bring Santana back if he will play for the same kind of a contract. A Lewis/Santina/Miranda every day 3B/!b/DH group would be a real strength of the team. RF will be open next year for Wallner, Larnach, or Martin, with Lee at 2B and Castro in LF.

Aren't there two sides to this coin? Margot is a poor hitter against righties and poor pinch hitter. Point taken. The other side is that we still need Margot or someone him because Larnach and Wallner are equally bad or even worse against lefties than Margot is against righties. We don't really have a third OF who can be an everyday player because of the platoon splits these guys all have. That assumes that Buxton and Kepler can hit both sides, a little questionable in Kepler's case. I see two short term solutions and a longer term solution. The first short term solutions is to move Castro back to LF once Correa and Lewis are back. 2B can be handled by a combination of Lee and Julien or Lee and Martin. Miranda plays 5 days a week at 3B/1B/DH, Lewis and Santana each sit once a week and the roles of Larnach, Margot and Wallner are reduced to bench players playing 2-3 days a week. Effectively, this reduces the playing time of Larnach, Margot, and Wallner and gives it to Miranda, Castro and Lee. Are we sure we want to do that? The second is to leave Castro at 2B and platoon Margot, Wallner, and Larnach in LF. That means fewer ABs for Lee (almost none). Also, the urge to play the two LH hitters might crowd out Miranda from some ABs at the DH spot, which is a mistake - Miranda is a better hitter than any of those 3. The longer term solution is to trade or release Margot, and either commit to running Larnach or Wallner out in LF against LH pitching or make Miranda a part time LF against LH pitching. Castro is the everyday 2B and Lee becomes the UTL IF for the rest of the season playing 2-3 days a week at 2B or SS, very occasionally at 3B since Lewis and Miranda handle that spot. I personally like this approach because it gets ABs to Miranda, Larnach, and Wallner instead of Margot and Lee. Bottom line is if we get everyone healthy there won't be enough playing time for Larnach, Wallner, Margot and Lee to get regular ABs if you assume the Twins will give regular duty to Kepler, Castro and Miranda. There is also no place for Farmer. Something's gotta give. It will be interesting to watch the next few days t see if there's a move made that opens up the logjam a little in return for pitching,

Castillo is now in DFA land, and Lewis is ready to come back. Camargo is the easy first choice to go down. What about when Miranda is ready and then when Correa is ready? Pick two of Julien, Lee, and Martin to go. None of them are hitting great, but at least Julien has an OPS o in the .500s over the last 7. Both Lee and Martin are below .400 in the last 7. Moreover, Lee looks lost at the plate, always in between on fastballs and expanding on breaking stuff. Also, do you want to keep Lee up when he won't get many ABS once Lewis is at 3B, Castro at 2B, and Correa at SS? The HD spot will be covered by Mirnada and Larnach/Wallner and Mirnada backs up 3B. NO real place for regular ABs for Lee. My guess is that they play Lee at SS for a few games to see if he can handle the position at the major-league level. That also gives him a chance to start hitting. If he can't play there or doesn't pick up at the platet, I would be surprised to see the trade out be Miranda and Correa in, Julien and Lee out with Martin staying on the roster to be the backup centerfielder. Should be interesting.

SWR may be better than we thought. I was happy because he was convincing me he might be a good #4 or #5 starter. Now I'm wondering if he has a #2 or #3 kind of ceiling. Having him with Lopez, Ober, and Ryan all controlled for the next 3-4 years gives us a great base for the rotation. Now, if only we could trade for a playoff type guy . . . Nathan Evoldi or Tyler Anderson anyone?

There are two reasons I think the window gets wider next year. First, I think that Miranda, Jeffers, Lewis, Castro, and Lee at the very least will continue to improve and be stalwarts in the lineup next year. I also have hope that Wallner and LArnach will do the same. I disagree that by age 25 players "are what they are". I think the window for improvement continues to least 27 or 28 and maybe even beyond that. People get better at their job the more they do their job. Second, I also think we're going to see improvement from Ryan, SWR, and Ober in the rotation and a better year from Lopez. I also see a step up in the secondary players as Martin takes over for Margot, Julien and Lee take over for Farmer, and Miranda starts playing every day and slowly eases out Santana (who I think will be back next year). That's not counting Emma, Keaschall, and Keirsey, all of whom could help the Twins in 2025 either as a reserve or in the second half of the season. Overall, I think the team is trending up and has not yet hit the potential of the players we currently have, much less players on their way up. I do agree that he is probably worth Schobel now that I've looked more closely at how he's doing. That of course means he is less likely to be enough for the Blue Jays. My thought would be trading someone outside of the top 10 who is not a pitcher might make some sense given all of the younger players we already have. I'm just not ready to give up any more than that.

Kikuchi would be a decent get, but it all depends on the price. He's not worth anybody in the top ten prospects. IS he worth Corey Lewis, Tanner Schobel, or Andrew Morris? Hard to do that for just 2024, assuming he will sign elsewhere as a FA after 2024. To me, this all depends on how good you think this team is and whether you think they can compete (defined as a deep playoff run) this year. I tend to think this team is good but not good enough to get to the ALCS unless the playoff schedule is very favorable, and there's at least a 30-40% we won't make the playoffs at all. I think the window opens much wider next year as the younger players have more experience. I wouldn't be willing to sacrifice much just for 2024, so I wouldn't be willing to give up much for Kikuchi. My call would be Tyler Anderson of the Angels. He's signed for $13m next year, a palatable sum if you want to keep him and a tradable contract if you don't. He's also a lefty and has better stats this year although inconsistent year to year. The Angels are open for business and need pretty much anything you got to replenish that farm system. A package of two prospects, one in the top 15-20, might do it. I'd love out get Estevez too but I think the price is going to be bid up pretty high on him and he's only a rental.

You're right. According to MLB trade rumors all of the bonuses have been paid out. The acquiring team would only be on the hook for the pro rated portion of his $4m base salary. Sounds like right about $1.5m. Worth a look depending on the prospect price IMHO.

Worth a call to see the price. A prospect outside the top 25 or so might be a worthwhile investment. I would much rather have Flaherty, Crochet, Fedde, Tyler Anderson or Kikuchi, but they may be out of our salary or prospect price range and are going to generate a lot of interest. I like this roster and think they could be a real contender next year. I wouldn't be willing to give a lot to get a starter for this year though. I particularly would not be willing to give up a top 10 or even top 20 prospect for a rental starting pitcher. I suspect that the good ones like Flaherty or Crochet are going to require multiple top 20 prospects, and the lesser types like Kikuchi at least one in the top 10 or top 15. Even Anderson or Fedde is going to cost at least one in the top 20 and maybe more. That's why it's worth calling on Paxton. Same for Cal Quantrill.

That makes sense. At 2.5m, probably not worth taking on for me.

Here's what MLB Trade rumors says about his contract: Paxton, 35, signed with the Dodgers on a complicated one-year deal that pays him a $3MM signing bonus, a $4MM salary, a $2MM roster bonus for making the Opening Day squad and a series of $600K and $1MM bonuses that unlock periodically based on his number of games started. Paxton has made 18 starts this season, which was the last milestone he needed to max out his contract. He’ll receive the full $13MM possible on the deal but also seems likely to finish out the season with another club, one way or another. It looks like they may not have all of his bonuses listed on Sportrac. I suspect that if he really is due a prorated amount of $13 million if claimed, he may pass through without being claimed. Here's is another thought. We have an open spot on Wednesday with Paddack going back on the IL. The Dodgers are bringing back Kershaw and Glasnow, which explains the DFA of Paxton. I wonder if they would be willing to trade him and cover his remaining salary, or at least a portion of it, for a prospect outside of the top 30? I'm not really sure I would make a deal for anything more than that but it might be worth exploring.

The Dodgers just DFA'd James Paxton. 35 year old left hander, 8-2 4,43 ERA, 1.46 WHIP so far this year in 89 innings. 7-5 with a 4.60 ERA, 1.31 WHIP with Boston last year in 96 innings. Hurt in 2020-2022. Not too exciting, but maybe worth signing if he clears waivers. Seems likely since he's hit his incentives to make $13m this year. Think it might be a good depth signing at the pro-rated minimum, Agreed on the need for a reliver, by the way. The bullpen is really only 4 deep, 5 if Stewart comes back. Hard to trust Okert, Theilbar, Funderburk, or Henriquez, and Sands is iffy. Bring on Carlos Estevez!

It would be great if these 3 performed at a high level in the second half, particularly Lopez. Having said that, the Keys to the second half are the proven players performing at a high level - Correa, Buxton, and Lopez. That only gets us there IF at least 3 of the young lineup guys really steeping it up from the group of Lewis, Castro, Wallner, Lee, Jeffers, Julien, and Larnach, while the rest are at least decent, PLUS we get strong second halves from at least 3 of Lopez, Ryan, Ober, and SWR. All possible, maybe even more likely than not, but has to happen if we are going to compete. We can't expect to ride a Kepler, Santana, Margot train and get any place. We've given the younger guys a shot. They now need to show for us to move up.

I couldn’t decide whether to like or hate this. You make good points about the team being fun with a good competitive window. I can’t speak to what’s going on in the Twin Cities economically since I live in Southern California but it is a bit of a surprise that attendance is down. It may just be a timing issue. Now that they’re playing better they may draw much better in the second half. My outside observation is that the issue is probably a combination of the lack of television exposure and poor marketing. TV really drives engagement for casual and younger fans. You see an exciting game on TV and you want to go be part of it. Frankly, that’s not the Twins fault. The Diamond Sports/RSN debacle is a classic case of a a poor management team that could not adapt to a changing market. The trying to hang on in bankruptcy just to squeeze a few bucks is kind of pathetic to watch. It’s being driven bye the big investors and bondholders of a failed enterprise and the Twins are caught in the middle. MLB has been very little help. They’ve got weight, throw it around on behalf of the teams, don’t just sit back and aid investors. Protect your product. As a lawyer it’s hard to watch without getting angry. You do have to blame the team for some pretty poor marketing. First, you don’t come off a good season and announce that you’re cutting payroll. You may wind up doing that but you sure as heck don’t signal it’s coming. Second , do they really limit the giveaways to the first 5000 people? I’ve heard that when I watch the game from MLB TV but it didn’t register. I go to all the different sports here in LA and if there is a giveaway, everybody gets one. It’s not very much money folks. My grandson has a backpack with Lakers pins attached to it. I got those for free, didn’t want them, I gave them to him. Closing off the Upper deck seats - what the hell! If you can’t sell them, give them away to little leagues, kids that get good grades, volunteers, anybody like that. I really do wonder about the Twins marketing department.

I think this is a little harsh regarding Santana. The Twins would have been justly criticized for going into this season with a Miranda/Kirilloff set as the only 1B options. Neither was good in 2023 and both were coming off of injuries. I think Santana has been much better than expected and his bat has really helped lengthen the lineup in those critical 5-7 spots. Also, his presence has allowed the Twins to bring Mirnada along at a pace that has really worked. I could actually see him back next year if he doesn't fall off of the proverbial age cliff in the second half of the season. You're dead on regarding Margot. He simply isn't valuable enough as a short side platoon hitter who can't hit righties at all and whose defense is cromulent at best (tip of the cap to Cody) in the corners and brutal in CF. What saves that deal is that Doncon has been better than expected. I would love to see them phase Margot out in the second half for Martin but I think that will be seen as too risky when we're in contention. Still, we need to know if that trade off will be workable next season since Margot is unlikely to be back.

I would say it's beyond merely cromulent. Perhaps even commendable or, dare I say it, sublime.

Vasquez is "perfectly cromulent" ?! Impressive vocabulary. I'm going to try to incorporate that into a sentence today. Many thanks for the tip.

Thanks for the analysis, Nick. I think you're pretty spot on. That raises two questions, (1) what do we need to do to catch Cleveland and (2) how much of an advantage is it to being a division winner. Look, health is the factor we can't evaluate because significant injuries to either team would make a big difference. That also applies to Kansas City. But assuming equal health luck, the answer to first question is easy. The Starting rotation is good but not great and we have very little depth behind the current starting five. We have now seen Varland and Festa start. Neither is ready to make a significant contribution this year. First, we need another starting pitcher and there are a couple out there who should be in our price range from both the salary and prospect perspective that would help – Tyler Anderson of the Angels, Erick Fedde of the White Sox, and Cal Quantrill of the Rockies. I would love to get someone like Evaldi, Flaherty, or even Kikuchi, but I just think the cost will be too high. Second, we need one more late inning reliever from the left side. If we can even even get either one of Stewrt or Topa back we have the right side covered. We could really use a guy like Tanner Scott, Jake Deikman, or Aroldis Chapman, but I've even take a guy like Andrew Chafin or Matt Moore. Alternatively, we could get a high-end gas guy from the right side and just drop a lefty and Carlos Estevez is available. We don't need a hitter badly enough to trade prospects of any value. The Lineup is relatively deep and can even survive some injuries. I really hope we are talking to the Angels every day about trying to get Tyler Anderson and/or Carlos Estevez. They need young players in the worst way and we can probably get one or both of those guys without giving up any of our top 10 prospects, maybe even not anyone in the top 15. How much of an advantage would be to win the division? It could be HUGE. I think it's a fair assumption that the winner of the AL Central will be the number two seed in the AL and get a bye in the first round. The number two seed is likely to get the winner of the AL West in the second round if that team can take out the number six seed, probably Boston or Kansas City. That means the an ALDS matchup with either Houston or Seattle, most likely Houston. That's a team we can beat. We then only have to play the surviving team from Baltimore, Cleveland, or the Yankees in the ALCS. In other words, we can avoid two of the three teams that are toughest to beat, and only have to play one of Baltimore, New York, and Cleveland to make the WS rather than two of them in two consecutive separate series. Winning the division is HUGE this year for our chances of actually having all deep playoff run. I don't think Cleveland wins 100 or 101 games which is their current pace. I think it went much closer to 93 to 95 games, which means they go something like 37 – 30 or 35 – 32 the rest of the way. The Twins need to go 41-25 to win 95, 39-27 to win 93. I think they can do that with the team they have, I think the chances are actually pretty good if they add another quality starting pitcher and a quality reliever, and have relatively good health.

According to Tankathon.com, Cleveland has the 2nd toughest schedule the rest of the way with their opponents' winning percentage of 523. The Twins schedule is no slouch though - the 7th toughest with an opponents winning percentage of .511. KC is 13th at .505, the Tighty Whitey's 14th at .503, and Detroit is 22nd at .492. Why all 3 above .500? Because the AL Central is one of the best divisions in baseball and they have to play each other. What?!!! How did that happen? You can really see it when you look at the list. The teams with the easiest schedules the rest of the way are mostly in the AL West, the easiest division in baseball, and then the NL West, probably the second easiest. It's also interesting that the AL East teams tend to have easier schedules. That suggests that maybe they paid their tougher out of division games already. Anyway, the Twins schedule is easier than the Guardians but not that much easier.

Thanks, and I agree with a lot of this. There is no question that interest amongst the 20 and 30 somethings is down, although I have three sons in their early 30s and two of them were quite avid baseball fans. Unfortunately for them, their team is the Angels. I do understand that the lack of baseball on TV is a real problem for the marginal fan engagement. It may be there are simply more people in Southern California, a larger Hispanic community to whom baseball is the number one sport after soccer, and those demographic factors make a huge difference. Also, both the Dodgers and the Angels are smart in that they get Japanese and Korean players, two huge communities in the LA area. I find it very hard to understand why older people would be afraid of Minneapolis. I live in LA and Dodger Stadium is very close to downtown and some other not so savory areas. The local news strongly believes in the old adage that "if it bleeds it, it leads", so we see all kinds of interesting stuff on TV every day. Minneapolis seems like a cakewalk by comparison. Is the area around the stadium just that bad so people don't want to walk through it? The difference may be that Dodger Stadium has its own parking lots so you drive through some "interesting" parts of town but you park outside those areas.