LA Vikes Fan

Varland up, Castillo optioned to St. Paul. I'm a little surprised that Castillo still has options remaining at his age but apparently so.

They may be trying to to push Pablo back to Friday to start against KC. They could pitch Matthews Thursday on 4 days rest since he pitched Saturday, give Pablo an extra day, and go Lopez, Ober, SWR in KC.

You might be right. Given his versatility he would be a better fit IF he can hit. It also helps that he hits RH. I would like to see him as a replacement for Farmer, but I think that's unlikely.

I think that is part of the price we're playing 3 rookies in the rotation. Holding runners on is a skill that develops over time.

What's interesting to me is Wallner is becoming the LH hitting OF who plays against LH pitching at some expense to Kepler. He also sometimes stays in when the other team switches to a LH reliever, whereas Larnach almost never does. His OPS is up to .721 against LH pitching, albeit with a weak .190/.292/.429 slash line. For reference, Larnach has a .423 OPS against left handers and Kepler has a .721 OPS against them. Oddly, Kepler is actually hitting better against southpaws than against RH pitching this year in a much smaller sample size. It looks to me like they are trying to see if Wallner can be an everyday OF to replace Kepler next year. Laranch is looking more like a platoon OF. Is Larnach Joey Gallo? Looks like it will be pretty similar. I think Wallner will hit for a higher average with the same basic OPS. Gallo had an OPS in the high .800s to the low .900s in 2017-2019, down in 2020, .806 again in 2021, and then fell off a cliff. Always had a high 30s% to 40% SO rate and a high walk rate. Sounds a lot like Wallner. Maybe he improves and gets his SO rate down to 30-33%. I see him settling in as a .250/.370/.510 guy who strikes out around a third of the time. Nothing wrong with that. It can really help to have one of those guys in the lineup … but you can only have one.

I agree with this, not as a philosophy but because of the people involved. Duran is best in a 9th/10th inning closer or tied situation; not so good outside of that. Jax is more versatile. I would use Jax the way Rocco used him yesterday, to face the meat of the other team's order whether that's in the 6th, 7th or 8th of a close game, or even the 9th inning of a tie game. I wouldn't get myself tied to a Jax in the 8th, Duran in the 9th mold.

I think we are seeing this year's roster already this year. It will be the same players with the possibility of one new, cheap bat or one, new cheap reliever. Here is the 2025 roster that I see: OF - Buxton, Larnach, Wallner, Martin (no Margot or Kepler) IF - Correa, Lewis, Miranda, Lee, Julien (no Farmer or Santana) UTL - Castro C - Jeffers, Vasquez SP - Lopez, Ryan, Ober, SWR, 1 of Paddack, Festa, Matthews, Varland - the 3 who don't make it are the Saints' top 3 starters. No permanent move to the BP yet for Varland. He gets one more shot to show he can be a MLB starter. BP - Jax, Duran, Sands, Alcala, Henriquez, Stewart, 2 of Funderburk, Thielbar, Winder, Blewett. Likely to be one added to this group as a FA on a minor league contract. The rest are in AAA. I see room for one more position player and maybe a reliever. The position player will either be Kirilloff (spot now that Santana is gone), a multi position guy like Helman, or a veteran RH bat that can play 1B and OF. The reliever will be an opportunity thing. IF there is an opportunity through a minor league contract signing or cheap vet we take it, otherwise we run back the same group. I think this is going to be a boring off season. The FO has spent this year setting up next year and we are there. Could be a fun team.

I'm actually hoping that they start Helman today since Tampa Bay is starting a left-hander. You know it will either be Farmer, Helman, or I guess maybe Lewis at 2B, although the latter seems very unlikely. Let's give this guy a chance to get his feet wet now and find out if he can help us down the stretch before Buxton is ready to come back and displace someone from the roster.

This. We're back to scoring most of our runs by way of the HR and not scratching out runs. Of course, a lot of that is we don't have a lot of speed as a team but we're not doing a great job stringing together hits to get a run here and run there. That to me is our biggest offense of weakness. That is a classic weakness a young team; pressing with runners on base. Right now, Larnach seems to be the big exception. It would really help if one of the other young guys in the middle the lineup like Lewis or Miranda could get hot with runners in scoring position.

The offense is sputtering right now. We need the better bat. Helman may be up simply because he’s a better hitter. With Castro now available to play CF, his positional flexibility also helps.

Why Castillo instead of Winder? I see Winder isn't doing so great in St. Paul but he looked good when he was up on August. I suspect Castillo is just here until Varland comes up or he goes 2 or 3 innings one day and then it's off to DFA land for a fresh arm. I can understand Helman given his flexibility. He gives them a RH 2B when they don't want to play Julien. this also tells you how much Farmer is going to play in September. Not much.

Margot is outhitting Pham.

I suspect Julien will not be a factor in September because he won't be in Minneapolis. The Twins can add one player and one pitcher tomorrow. Lee is likely to be the position player; Winder probably the pitcher. Then next week(?) Buxton comes back. Who do you keep and who do you send to St. Paul ineligible to come back for 10 days - Julien or Martin? I think Martin since he can play a passable 2B as well as the OF, and runs better so is a better pinch running option. Martin hits RH and Julien can't hit LH pitching. Lee takes over either SS or 2B with Martin available to play 2B. I do think Julien is part of the long term future, though. He will work through the hitting woes, you can already see the adjustments and improvements there. Will he be a .270/.380/.420 or more guy or a .240/.320/.380 or less guy? Hard to say but the chance he will be the first guy is at least 35-40% IMO so you have to ride him for a least another season. Much like Martin needs to find a winter ball team where he can play CF every day, Julien needs to find a place to play 1B every day so he can be a 2B/1B next year with Miranda playing the every day 1B role. If you look at who we have in 2025 once the soon to be FAs go (Margot, Kepler, Santana, Farmer) and Buxton and Correa come back, there are spots for Martin, Lee, and 2 more guys. Julien should be one of those 2 guys along with a good bat RH hitting OF.

Truer words were never spoken. Sports are entertainment. That business requires taking risk to be successful; you have to spend money to put out a good product with no guarantee it will be successful. The successful owners in sports* are entrepreneurial, take risk, and are willing to absorb losses if the risks backfire. The Twins owners don't do that and as a result are less successful. *That is sports other than pro football where the combination of huge TV revenue and a salary cap means you basically cannot lose money. Even the truly incompetent in the NFL make a profit.

Agreed. I think Theilbar may be the guy to DFA so we can get both Varland and Winder in the bullpen while still keeping Henriquez and Blewett out there. One can come up when the staff expands by one on 9/1, the other for Theilbar. Yes, that means no LH relief, but Theilbar hasn't shown he can reliably get LH hitters out for a while now. It's sad, but time for him to ride off into the sunset.

Guys, if what MLB trade rumors says is correct, the Giants don't have to release Rogers if he clears waivers. If he clears, they have to pay the rest of his salary so they'll just keep him. He's on waivers, not a DFA. This is a straight salary dump - if someone will take his contract he's gone, if not, he stays. He's still under contract if he clears waivers and isn't available unless he's claimed or is released. Giants Place Thairo Estrada, Taylor Rogers On Waivers - MLB Trade Rumors

I didn't say you get the GM, only the manager. Trust me on this as someone who lives in LA and follows the Dodgers. If you think Baldelli makes head scratching moves and manages by the book instead of a gut attuned to his players, you ain't seen nothing yet. Watch Dave Roberts. His ineptitude is papered over by a 25 year $8 billion (that's billion with a B) TV deal. $320M a year to spend can paper over a lot of ineptitude. And buy you Shohei Ohtani.

I think this is a good take. They've built a great system; I can see sticking around to see it bear fruit. The frustration has to be the team's unwillingness/inability to build a solid group of veterans around the young guys coming up. The Lewis, Wallner, Miranda, Castro, Larnach types should be hitting 5-8 as they develop this year, not 1-4. Injuries have played a role in knocking Correa out (maybe those teams that decided against giving him a 10 year $350m deal after seeing the medicals were right) but Buxton isn't really a middle of the order hitter and Santana, Kepler, Jeffers/Vasquez, and Margot are all back of the order guys. I hope the younger guys can be that middle of the order core next year but that would require a step up and it would have to be all of them, not just one or two. Tough way to get better.

Agreed.

I agree with KirbyDome89 in one crucial way - the Twins are not any more snake bitten than anyone else. You only have to look at our current opponent. Atlanta has lost more talent to injury than we have but is playing better. The Orioles lost 3 starters, the Yankees were without Cole for several weeks and have had good players have poor years, the Guardians lost their #1 starter for the entire season, the Dodgers have basically lost their entire starting rotation and Mookie Betts for several weeks, the Brewers lost Yelich (their best player) to season ending surgery, etc. Let's not play the "victim card" here; the Twins have not had more bad injury luck than anybody else. We just don't have the MLB ready depth that other contending teams do and weren't willing to sacrifice prospects to build it short term. It's a defensible strategy if you're playing more for the next few years than this year, long term over short term, but it means this unchecked and perhaps uncheckable slide is always a real possibility. We'll be lucky to slide into the playoffs this year but it will give a bunch of guys some crucial MLB experience. Which is better depends on your outlook.

After reading the other comments while I was drafting my incredibly verbose post above, I tend to agree that Falvey is the guy to keep more than Levine. I do question whether they have been signed to a long-term deal. I don't think that's because the Twins don't want them long-term; I think it's because they are unsure about staying. Why the skepticism? You have two guys that took a moribund organization and turned it into a forward thinking, modern team that has a chance to compete -all in a period of about five years with limited resources. Now imagine if you took that same skill set and combined it with more resources like they have in at least 10 to 12 organizations. If I'm Falvey or Levine, I would think twice about signing an extension of more than two years in Minnesota because I've then shut the door on better opportunities. Let's not kid ourselves; there are at least 10 to 12 better opportunities out there and may be more. I do think the off-season is going to be interesting in the Front Office because I think both men will really wonder if this is the place they want to be. There is still no clarity about broadcast rights and there is clarity that ownership will not spend additional sums on payroll until the revenue stream is guaranteed. These guys are bankers, not start up founders or real estate developers; they are not entrepreneurial and they don't build on spec. I would expect both Falvey and Levine to at least be willing to explore other opportunities. I know that I would.

I agree that the Twins should try to extend both Falvey and Levine. My question is, why would they stay if they get other options? I recall reading that Levine was in consideration for a job in Boston. He didn't get it, but it would have been hard to blame him for leaving a financially struggling organization for one willing to open the pocketbook to field a more competitive team. I suspect both are willing to stay but only until they get a better offer. I think the unfortunately likely result here will be that both stay with the Twins but remain open to other offers. They will both eventually get offers to move to an organization more willing to spend and are likely to take those offers. By the way, I think the same is likely for Baldelli, who despite the incessant trolling on this site is a very good MLB manager who could get another job in a week if the Twins let him go. I live in LA and the Dodgers or Angels would grab him in a nano second if he was available. The Twins Front Office will then become like the Twins team itself; an organization that finds young talent, grooms it to success, and then loses it to other organizations that are willing to actually pay for talent.

The wheels are definitely coming off. As I mentioned in the game thread yesterday, the worst thing that could have happened to this team has now happened – Lewis has stopped hitting. That leaves a #2 - #4 lineup consisting of three guys who have less than a thousand MLB ABs, with Larnach at 888, Mirnada at 924, and Wallner at less than 500. We are regularly batting a glove first 38-year-old 1B whose primary talents are with his glove and drawing walks in the middle of the order. The lead off hitter is a utility guy and although Castro has done better than expected, he's a guy who should be batting in the bottom third of the order on a contending team. Kepler is what he is, a good glove #8 hitter, behind Jeffers at #7. The pitching is in much worse shape with three rookies in the rotation and a bullpen that basically has three reliable guys, two possibly reliable guys, and a cast of thousands. And that counts Duran as a reliable option, which he has not been lately. The long MLB season has a way of exposing teams that lack depth. The Twins are one of those teams and it is showing right now. They still have a pretty good chance of making the playoffs, but could easily slide out of the postseason. I don't know what the story is with Buxton and Correa but it is looking more and more like they will not be back this season so we should probably forget about either of them riding to the rescue. I see the reference to trying to catch Cleveland or Kansas City. I would argue that you are looking in the wrong direction. The key is whether they can hold off Boston for the last wildcard spot. Their lead for that spot is down to four games, probably three after they get hammered by Atlanta again tonight. To me, the big question is whether they can pull it together enough to win 87 or 88 games and slide into the postseason. I think that will require a big step up by some younger players. It's possible, but far from likely. I'm said from the beginning of the season then I think this team is one year away from being a true contender. I think were finding that out now. We just don't have the depth to compete. As they pointed out in last nights game, it's not like the Twins have had more crucial injuries than the Braves, it's the other way around. The difference is that the Braves have depth and acquired some players, and the Twins do not. Lose tonight and we're 1-5 on this homestand with three on tap against Toronto who has been playing pretty well lately. We follow that with a trip to Tampa Bay and then Kansas City and you could easily see a 3-8 or 4-7 record in the next 11 games, probably enough to knock us out of a playoff spot. I don't mean to be all doom and gloom, but this does not feel like just a slump where quality players will turn it around in short order. These last 10 games look much more like a true reflection of who this team is - decent to good, but just not quite good enough.

I think Varland will be back this weekend. He went down on 8/14 and Winder went down on 8/15. By rule, they have to stay in the Minors for 15 days before they can be recalled unless they come back as an injury replacement. They should both be able to come back this weekend. It will be interesting to see how this shakes out with Tonkin and Blewett replacing the two obvious DFAs, Richards and Okert. They can carry 14 pitchers starting Sunday so that gets one of Varland and Winder back. I wonder if the second will be at the expense of Blewett or Henriquez, or if Alcala or Duran gets a 15 day IL stint. Both look gassed and it does make one wonder if there's an arm issue. It is amazing that the cupboard is so bare for relief pitchers at the AAA level. We probably have the best ones either already up in Blewett adn Henriquez (still love that name), with Varland and Winder soon to follow. There doesn't appear to be much else there.

See you guys. Have a great rest of your evening. I'll check back in after a couple of weeks.