LA Vikes Fan

Assuming we get to the playoffs, you're absolutely right. Sands, Winder, Ortega, etc. will never pitch in a non-blowout playoff game and probably won't even be on the playoff roster. This is a regular season problem only. I'd still like to see them give Varland a shot in the pen and maybe the same for Funderburk. Might help us in the regular season and should help us get a better read for next year.

I agree that it's the last month that gives one hope that Martin could contribute at the MLB level. Unfortunately we can't just add him on 9/1 because the Twins are going to need those two extra spots and more for Buxton, Castro, and Kirilloff when they come off the IL. You have to lose one of Luplow or Gallo just to get all 3 of those guys back on the expanded roster. To get Martin up, you have to lose both Gallo AND Luplow unless someone else gets hurt and goes on the IL.

Looking at the 4 trades and what we would have had to give up, it's hard to get excited about making any of those trades. Hicks and Sewald would have been good gets, but come with hefty price tags. The rest seem pretty meh. We also have to remember that KC was unlikely to trade a longer term asset like Barlow in the division and I question whether Seattle would help out our bullpen since we are likely first round playoff opponents. Looking at this, it becomes a little more understandable why we didn't trade for bullpen help at these prices. I also agree with Hosken, the playoff bullpen if we get there will have at least 1 of the current starters and probably 2 if you consider Keuchel a starter. My guess its that Maeda and Kuechel go into the pen, the former as a setup man, the latter as long man or piggyback guy with Ober. I'd still like to see them bring up Varland NOW nd see if he can be an effective late inning reliever. I think he can.

Interesting analysis. I think you did a great job. It will be even more interesting to see what if anything the FO does about the back end of the bullpen going forward. This is no bullpen to bring to a playoff series. I hope they at least bring up Varland to the bullpen, maybe Funderburk, and add Maeda or Ober to the pen as the playoffs arise (if we make them). Also be great if Stewart came back but that's looking less and less likely.

We need a CF for 2024 and a better RH hitting OF for 2023. I think our highest and best hope in 2024 should be that Buxton plays 80ish games in the OF next year and another 50 at DH. That means we will need another player to be a half to 2/3 time starting CF. I frankly think we have that guy in Max Kepler which would really open things up for OFs because it's easier to find corner OFs that a decent CF. Unfortunately, Kepler apparently doesn't want to play CF on any sort of regular basis. Maybe we can find way to tie playing CF to exercising his option and that can be the short term solution. Assuming Max isn't the answer, and frankly thinking more long term, we will need a CF in 2024. We also need to replace Luplow as the RH hitting OF in 2023 as it is becoming more clear why the Blue Jays cut him, and why TB, Cle, and AZ cut him before that - he can't hit. For 2024, Taylor has actually been a decent short term guy but he's 32 and really is a 4th or 5th OF on a good team. I don't see Lewis going back out there after getting hurt last year. We can rail about that all we want but it ain't happening so let's looks at something closer to a possible reality. There's really 3 choices for 2024 other than a free agent, Taylor again, Castro or Gordon as a full/part time CF, or go to Martin or Keirsey now at AAA. The last prospect excites me IF we could get Martin or Keirsey some ABs this year to see where they're at versus MLB pitching. The problem is that we can't unless w make a roster change. We can only add 2 guys on 9/1 and we need space for at least 3 guys coming back from injury - Castro, Buxton, and Kirilloff. It will take dropping a current MLB player to get them on the roster (Gallo? Luplow?) and that's without adding a pitcher. There just isn't any easy way to add another AAA player unless there's an injury or we are willing to drop two of Gallo, Luplow, Farmer, or Solano. My solution? Bring up Martin before 9/1 to replace Gallo or Luplow. I really don't care which although I don't see the Twins dropping Gallo until they absolutely have to. I would see if Luplow is willing to stay with the team if/when he clears waivers. If he is, he's the one. If he's not, well, he's still the one. Luplow is falling off the table at the plate and looking a whole lot more like even less than his career .214/.315/.429 (.744) career slash line. In his last 7 games he's got 18 ABs and is hitting .111/.200/.333. All of this when he almost exclusively plays against LH pitching. He's 30 on 9/26. He's not on next year's team and not a future player on any sort of contending team. I would bring up Martin now. Play Martin now in CF against LH pitching and, if we can play the back half of September without pressure, he's plays every day to rest guys. Sets us up for 2024 and beyond without hurting us much now. I have to think Martin can hit some, I know he can run some, and I'd wager that he can at least come close to meeting or exceeding the Luplow threshold. We have a unique opportunity now to test/expose/develop young talent at the MLB level while still winning the division. Let's take that opportunity now. By the way,. all of this also applies to putting Varland and Funderburk in the bullpen TODAY but that's a topic for another thread. . .

Gman is right on Buxton. I think our highest and best hope should be that Buxton Plays 80ish games in the Of next year and another 50 at DH. That means we will need another player to be a half to 2/3 time starting CF. I frankly think we have that guy in Max Kepler which would really open things up for OFs because it's easier to find corner OFs that a decent CF. Unfortunately, Kepler apparently doesn't want to play CF at least not on a regular basis. Maybe we can find way to tie playing CF to exercising his option and that can be the short term solution. IF that doesn't work, and frankly thinking more long term, we will need a CF. Taylor has actually been a decent short term guy but he's 32 and really is a 4th or 5th OF on a good team. I don't see Lewis going back out there after getting hurt last year. We can rail about that all we want but it ain't happening so let's looks at something closer to a possible reality. There's really 3 choices for 2024 other than a free agent, Taylor again, Castro or Gordon as a full/part time CF, or go to Martin or Keirsey now at AAA. The last prospect excites me IF we could get Martin or Keirsey some ABs this year to see where they're at versus MLB pitching. The problem is that we can't. We can only add 2 guys on 9/1 and we need space for at least 3 guys coming back from injury - Castro, Buxton, and Kirilloff. It will take dropping a current MLB player to get them on the roster (Gallo? Luplow?) and that's without adding a pitcher. There just isn't any easy way to add another AAA player unless there's an injury or we are willing to drop two of Gallo, Luplow, Farmer, or Solano. My solution? Bring up Martin before 9/1 to replace Gallo or Luplow. Don't care which although I would see if Luplow is willing to stay with the team if/when he clears waivers. If he is, he's the one. Whichever one goes now, the other goes when the 3 Il guys are ready. Play Martin now in CF against LH pitching and, if we can play the back half of September without pressure, he's plays every day to rest guys. Sets us up for 2024 and beyond without hurting us much now.

You have to limit his innings. The injury risk is too great. I recall reading that the stats are that innings increases for starters should be limited to 20-25% year to year. After that, the stats show that the risk of a major injury goes way up. I can't find the article now so someone please correct me if I'm wrong on the numbers. Ober is already at about a 25% increase over his 108 innings pitched in 2021 and at a more than 50% increase over his 88 innings in 2022. those totals are minor and MLB innings combined. I expect them to try to limit him to 165-170 innings max, and maybe even 150-160. Given that he should have roughly 6-7 starts left in the remaining 36 games, I expect that he will be limited through this next rough stretch and then maybe even shut down for the last part of September if we are eliminated or clinch. If it's still a race, I can see him getting 5-6 starts but being limited to 5-6 innings a start.

Agreed. I'm actually pretty excited about the way the team has embraced a youth movement this year. This is the year to turn over the roster and still win the division with all of the other Central teams being so pathetic. The one place the youth movement hasn't worked is the bullpen. Sands, Winder, Balazovic, and Headrick all haven't really worked out. I'd really like to see them try to finish the evaluation/prepare for 2024 job with 2 guys - Funderburk and Varland. Put both in the bullpen now instead of Winder and Sands. I think Funderburk could be a decent 6th inning type guy and Varland has the stuff to be a lights out late inning guy. Varland can go back to starting next season, this doesn't have to be permanent. He could really help us this year in the stretch and playoffs if given a chance in the bullpen. We have little to lose given Winder and Sands' performance so far. I would call up Varland, send down Winder, either start Varland Sunday against the Rangers or start Ryan if he's ready (drop Sands), and then keep him up to work out of the bullpen for the rest of the year unless he bombs in that role. Keuchel goes to the BP as the "long man"/second leftie or goes for Funderburk. Ortega could also be dropped for Funderburk. Could help us now and definitely will help us make decisions over the winter and get set for 2024. I think if this year's team could win the division and win a playoff series it would count as a great season/a big win. The real contention window opens in 2024. Let's get ready now by playing the guys we expect to be the big contributors next season. We're doing that everywhere else, time to include the bullpen.

Agreed. At $10m for 2024, Kepler is a bargain if he's the post June 6 version, overpaid if he's the 2022 version, and about right in the most likely event that he's a combination of those two versions. There also isn't likely to be anyone better at that price point for 2024, especially when adding in his defensive value. Also, there isn't anyone pushing for his spot unless Larnach or Gordon is mor than they've shown so far. Martin may be in the mix and pushing for a spot by mid 2024 but probably not out of the gate, Castro is a 4th or 5th OF/UTL, Gordon is probably on another team next year, and Prato is intriguing but also most likely a mid 2024 guy. I think Kepler stays on the option in part because he's been worth it since June of this year, and also in part because we don't have anyone knocking hard enough on the door to replace him. I think the Martin and/or Prato may give the FO the confidence it needs to trade Larnach and/or Gordon, but not enough to lose Kepler.

Probably our best defensive lineup. Hope we can score 3 runs or more with this group.

Agree, if Kirilloff is coming back. If he isn't, then putting Buxton in LF may make some sense with Julien and/or Polanco playing 1B.

Great analysis, thanks for that. I think his more aggressive approach is also true of some of the other Twins hitters. I wonder if that's the approach change that is helping the offense - more of a "look for a pitch in a particular zone and swing early in the count" mindset. I see the same approach with Julien, Jeffers, Polanco, and Lewis. Now it doesn't work for a guy like Gallo, but for the better hitters it is the best approach. Good to see.

That is a tough call. It depends a little on how confident you are that players now in AAA or who have only performed for limited periods will do next year. Castro is what he is; his numbers this year are right in line with his career number except that Rocco of all people turned him loose and now he's a dangerous base stealer. Having said that, I think Polanco is better at the bat and in the field. Gordon looked good for half of 2022; otherwise he's been injured or not very good. Farmer can't hit (not even LG H pitching this year) and is 31. Miranda has been good - 2022- and injured/bad - 2023. Parato, Lee, Severino, et al., all minor leaguers at this point. Gordon is a half season wonder and I think is on a new team in 2024 unless he can find a way to make the team as the 5th OF. I would keep both Polanco and Castro to start 2024. I see Polanco as a IF UTl playing mostly 1B and 2B, but able to play 3B at an average(ish) level. I think his bat and clutch hitting makes him important to have around. Castro is our 4th OF/backup CF. Parato is an OF and he and Severino start 2024 at AAA. The tough two for me are Miranda and Farmer. There's room for one - two if you dump Polanco but I think he's better than either of them in the field (Miranda) or at the plate (Farmer). I'm rooting for Miranda to come back and be the 6th IF behind Correa, Kirilloff, Lewis, Julien and Polanco, but I could see making him re-prove himself in AAA after this season and keeping Farmer's glove around. Still, I'd like to see Miranda, Gordon, or even Lee make the team over Farmer. I do think we will see Miranda, Lee, Severino, and Prato with the Twins in 2024, probably in that order. I just don't think we will or should see them out of the gate. I think the team does a new 2 year 12-14 million deal with Polanco. He is tradeable with that contract if he's healthy and one of the younger guys breaks out, and is great depth to have at the MLB level. His contract isn't too onerous if he spends another season on the IL. it's away to have our cake and eat it too - protect ourselves from relying on guys who aren't ready while having a tradeable asset if we get a breakout from the others. And this all assumes that Julien, Lewis, Correa and Kirilloff are healthy. If they aren't we gotta have Polanco as Lewis moves to SS.

Guys, I really don't understand this desire to get rid of Polanco. Let's start with the basics. We need 6 infielders in 2024, 2 of whom can play SS. It's 6 IFs, not 1 IB, 1 2B, etc. All of them can and should be relatively interchangeable at 1B, 2B, and 3B. That's the way you ride out injuries, slumps, platoon advantages, etc. and remain competitive. That's modern baseball. That's the way this team is being built. Ok, who are those 6 next year for the Twins? Correa, Lewis, Julien, and Kirilloff are locks. I don't see Kirilloff in lF, we have enough OFs. That leaves you Polanco, Farmer, Solano, and Miranda, and a bunch of now AAA guys in Lee, Severino, and maaaybe Austin Martin although I think he's an OF in the majors. Castro? More of a super utility/OF than an IF. Same for Gordon. Now rank them for 2024. Polanco is clearly #1. He hits better than Farmer, fields better than Solano or Miranda, and is more versatile in the IF than either of them. Lee? Severino? They both need to tear up AAA first, and they both just got there. Could they be mid-season call ups? Absolutely, but not before then. Is it Polanco's salary? Well, it's an option so pay the freight for 1 year or maybe give him a 2 year deal at around 7m AAV. The Twins have a lot of low salaried players now so the overall payroll can handle that easily and still fortify the pitching staff with FAs. It's just hard to see a rationale for losing Polanco other than wanting Lee or Severino up all year. Hard to see the sense in creating uncertainty with an unproven player when you have a good to very good veteran for that spot. Next year's IF group is Correa, Julien, Lewis, Kiriloff, Polanco, and either Miranda (my bet) or Farmer coming out of ST. Solano is 35 and gone next year. Gallo is way gone. Julien and Polanco take a lot of 1B reps in the offseason and ST next year and they plus Miranda are the alternative to Kirilloff at 1B, not Solano or Gallo. That is a solid to very good group who can all field at least competently with the possible exception of Julien and have all shown that they can hit in the top 6 spots in an MLB lineup. Julien will be better at D next year with more reps and work, maybe even average. He stays for his bat and you find him a place to play. Keep Polanco next year. I see no one as good or better to replace him at least at the start of the season and there isn't a good reason to lose him.

For all of its faults, I do think one thing the FO has done well this year is transition the roster to the next generation while keeping the team competitive. Yes, the crummy division helps, injuries have forced some of the decisions, and none of us can explain why Joey Gallo is still on the roster or even worse why he plays, but there has been a major transition these last two years. They say the prime years for pitchers are ages 26-32, and the prime for position players 25-31. Look at the roster members in the age 28 or under seasons: Lopez (27), Ryan (27), and Ober (28) in the rotation, with Varland (25) having gotten 10 starts so far in 2023, Padack is 27 and may be in the rotation next year. Duran (25), Jax (28) - the 2 highest leverage guys - in the bullpen, with Blazovic (24), Sands (26), and Winder (26) getting a look, Julien (24), Lewis (24), Wallner (25), Jeffers (26), and Kirilloff (25) are all regulars, with Castro (26), a super utility. Correa turns 29 in September, Buxton 30 in January, Kepler 31 in February, Polanco 31 next July. That's 60% of the rotation and more than half of the regular lineup 28 or under, meaning they should all have at least 2-4 years of their prime in front of them. The bullpen needs a refresh and there isn't much in the system that we've seen so far, so there is a real area of need. Having said that, many bullpens are made up of guys in their early 30s moving from team to team and that's one area where you can pick up guys on the fly. The point is that this team has really embraced a youth movement and ITS WORKING. This group should be able to stay together for at least 2-3 years maybe more like 4-5, and be competitive through that window. Injuries could of course change that as could some regression. On the other hand, add in Lee (22), Miranda (25), Martin (24), Prato (25) at the AAA or MLB level already, with guys like Raya, Festa, Severino, and Rodriguez not far behind, and Jenkins, Winokur, and even Soto interesting pieces from this year's draft, and we could be some solid or better reinforcements on the way. And we shouldn't forget about Larnach (27 in February). I think he could be a solid or better regular if he got 5 days a week playing time, or at least a solid trade chip for a youngish pitcher that we could repurpose as a late inning reliever. I would love to see a lineup by mid-2024 that started Lewis, Julien, Kiriloff, Wallner, Jeffers, Martin, Miranda, and maybe even Lee. That's probably a bridge too far - 8 of the 9 spots when you have to think Correa and Buxton have 2 of them - but that doesn't stop my optimism. This team is doing the right thing this year in embracing youth at the expense of older average(ish) regulars. Let's keep doing that and this team will be fun to watch for the next few years.

One more thought. Let's not get too tied up with getting every player a set position where they will play "every day". That's not the way modern baseball works. The twins need 6 infielders for the 2024 roster, at least 2 of whom can play SS. Those 6 will play in various combinations during the course of the season and their performance, injuries, etc. will determine who plays how much. We have a clear 5 for next year in my mind - Correa, Lewis, Kirilloff, Julien, and Polanco. Since Lewis can play SS, we don't really need Farmer. That last spot can be Farmer or Solano initially, tough choice between bat or glove, If Lee is ready, it can be Lee, same for Miranda. Both have a ways to go to prove they belong, though. My guess is that Miranda starts the season as the RH IB, part time 3B, with Lee in AAA, and Farmer and Solano somewhere else, but that's just a guess. In short, there is not "logjam" that forces Polanco off the roster. In fact, I would argue that his versatility is exactly what we need. Keep Polanco. There is absolutely no reason to trade him unless you can get a big return.

This is a no brainer if the price was $4-6m rather than $10.5m, you absolutely bring him back. He can play a super utility role or even 2B with Julien as more of a DH/1B. Polanco has proven himself to be an above average major player with an an above average bat and at least average D except at SS. He is a much better player than Donovan Solano (who I really like) and absolutely fits on a 26 man roster for a contending team. Yes, he gets hurt more often now that he's older but his 125, 116 and 110 OPS+ the last 3 years including this one isn't easily available, particularly from a guy who can actually provide some defensive value. Lee, etc., even Julien, might be better but that's a crapshoot at least for 2024. The 2024 Twins will be a better team if Polo is on it. So the issue isn't should he be on the 2024 Twins - HE SHOULD - the issue is whether he's worth $10.5m. But should that really be a stumbling block? Next year's Twins have 3 large salaries - Lopez, Correa, and Buxton - and a whole lotta guys still under control and making bupkiss money. Gray is likely gone and Maeda may stay but for relative peanuts for a starting pitcher - maybe $10-12m. They can afford Polanco at $10.5 m, Kepler at $10m and Vasquez at $10m because a big part of the heart of the team next year will be guys making $1m or less - Lewis, Ryan, Ober, Duran, Julien, Kirilloff, Wallner, Castro, Jax, etc. I would try to get Polo to sign for 2 years at a total of around $12-14m but if he won't I would definitely pick up the option and at least keep him through 2024. Polo is a winner. You keep guys like that if you can.

The one guy on your list that I think is intriguing is Austin Martin. The rest are either new to AAA and haven't dominated it yet (Lee, Keirsey, and Severino), a high strikeout guy with limited defense in WIlliams, a high walk reliever in Funderburk, and Stevenson who is an older player who didn't do well in previous MLB experience. Arguably, Steveston is is a speedier version of Jake Cave who is on the Phillies roster and Funderburk may get a shot because we are desperate for bullpen help. Can't see Williams as an upgrade over Solano who he would replace. Still, none of the others really move the needle for me. Why Martin? He's been hot in August and a RH OF with speed would add something to the current team that it doesn't have. The choice would be him or Luplow, who hasn't been pretty good since we got him and has a longer track record. Luplow is controllable through 2024 and has an option left so I could see giving that spot to Martin and hoping to catch lightning in a bottle going forward. If Martin flops in a few game trial, back to Luplow.

With Jax imploding and Winder just not working out, it makes sense to try the best we have at AAA in the majors now before September. The roster spot can be created by sending down Winder and/or putting Jax on the IL (I think he needs a 15 day break). Moran can't throw strikes in AAA either so he's out. With those two spots, I would try Henriquez and either bring back Ortega or try Funderburk if we're trying AAA relievers. I have a different idea. Let's raid the AAA starting rotation for relief help in the short term. I'd bring up Varland to the Twins bullpen as a 1-2 inning short man and consider SWR for a long man role. We need a reliable short man and Varland has the stuff to fill that need. I'm less sure about SWR but I think they are the two most likely to actually provide the Twins bullpen with some help now. Both can go back to starting next year, Varland as the #5 or #6 Twins starter and SWR back at AAA.

Right now Pagan wins hands down. Jax has been very ineffective for about a month. Get him to the IL to rest his tired arm.

Wow, tonight's game was terrible! We only scored in one inning, Correa hit into another double play with the bases loaded, Jeffers needs to lose the piano on his back if he ever expects to hit another double, Duran gave up a run in the 9th, Gallo played (why?). Let's face it, this team is going nowhere! the From Office should have been fired months ago and replaced by people who know merde from shinola! Wait.... wrong thread?

Just saw it. It is Willi C to the Il, Lewis up.

Has it been announced Will C on Il and Lewis up? I was hoping for Keuchel DFA, Lewis up. We don't need a 5th starter until 8/26 with the 3 upcoming off days.

DFA Keuchel. We don't need a 5th starter until 8/26 with the off days. Ryan will be back by hen and Varland creates depth. Keuchel goes through waivers and if he clears (likely?), back to St. Paul for more depth.

Very well put. I think we tend to obsess on the one day lineup thinking there are starters who play "every day" and then there are bench players. I think there are more like 5-6 guys for the infield, 4-5 outfielders, and two catchers who play in various combinations in modern baseball. With that construct, an infield group of Lewis, Correa, Polanco, Julien, Solano, and Farmer works very well. Add in Kirilloff and lose one of the "part timers" in Solano or Farmer and you really have a very good infield group. Maybe you trade Farmer in the off season to a team that needs a SS and Solano stays until Lee is ready to join that group. The OF group is Buxton, Taylor, Kepler, Wallner, and Castro, with Larnach, Luplow, or any other youngish guy in AAA taking the place of Castro if they deserve it. Works for me and I think it's a contending group. I say improve flexibility this year and next by playing Polanco at 1B now. Also opens up the possibility of a Polanco, Julien, Correa, Lewis playoff infield with Solano and Gallo in the pinch hitter/DH role and Farmer as the late inning defensive replacement.