LA Vikes Fan

I hate to agree, but you're right.

Well, maybe this is why Varland doesn't throw as many strikes as he needs to be an effective starter. His strikes get hit too hard. I'm rooting for the guy but every time I see him pitch I can't escape the thought of "wouldn't this guy be a good late inning reliever pitching one or maybe two innings at a time?". Gotta think that is his future unless there is some way he can take one more step. Famous last words but I don't think he will last five innings today.

Garland did a good job getting through a tough first inning, especially one where Farmer should have made the play on the first "hit". Having said that, the huge difference between he and Matthews is jumps out at you. Matthews consistently throws strikes, Varland does not. I don't know if the answer is to back his velocity down a mile per hour or two so he can have more fastball command, or whether he just isn't going to get there, I like his stuff but until he throws more strikes he is a bullpen pitcher. I suspect the plan here is to give best at another start against the Rangers in Arlington, and Matthews another start in San Diego against a very good team, and see how they do. Maybe Varland gets one more start in the second game in San Diego depending on whether we can last that long with the seven man bullpen. Hopefully at least two of them perform well. Then we go back to the five-man rotation and one of the three is either in AAA as the sixth starter or in the bullpen. My bet is that Varland will be the odd man out.

Varland's biggest problem is showing up again. He just doesn't throw enough strikes. Even if he can get through trouble, he has to throw so many pitches that he has trouble getting through even 5 innings, much less 6.

Rosario is a different situation. We need a SS until Correa comes back. Castro is trying his best but he can't really field the position and his bat is going into the tank by playing every day. Rosario can not only play SS he's hitting .305/.331/.415 (.746). He's a clear upgrade over Martin. Rosario is worth a claim. By the way, the blogs for the Cardinals, Guardians, and Yankees are all making cases to pick up Rosario. We need to make a claim if only to avoid Cleveland picking him up.

To add to that, Castro needs a break. He's overexposed and has a mid .600s OPS over the last 30 plus games. He needs to get back to playing 4 days a week, not 6 or 7.

Agreed. Signing Hill means taking starts away from at least one of Festa, Matthews, and Varland. Hill doesn't help your bullpen at all - he adds to the strain because he is a 5 inning tops guy at age 44. You don't expose him a third time through the order. Those starts are much bettter used on the young starters who we will need next year.

Max Kepler is in his age 31 season hitting .266/.341/.400 (.716) with 7 HRs. Very unlikely that he gets 3 years/$60m no matter who well he hits the last 2 months of the season. It also seems very unlikely he gets 3 years at this age. Teams just aren't willing to give that kind of years for ages 32 – 34 anymore, nor frankly should they unless the player is an Aaron Judge type. I think that $12 million a year is probably a little high and I don't see a team on the West Coast that needs Max's profile. The Dodgers, Padres, and Mariners don't need a corner outfielder, particularly one who is pretty average at the plate without much power. I see Max kind of going the Eddie Rosario way unless he stays with the Twins; a series of one-year deals, may be preceded by one 2-year deal, at somewhere between $8 and $12 million a year. I actually wouldn't mind if the Twins gave him one more year since I'm not sold on Wallner or Larnach as everyday players. I actually think Max is worth more to the Twins then he is to another team. I wouldn't be surprised if he stayed in Minnesota on a two year, $20-$24 million kind of deal. But given the other payroll raises that are coming up, I think it's more likely he either retires or winds up playing on a series of one-year deals for various non-elite teams.

You're absolutely right that the young pitching will determine this year and next. It's encouraging to see the baseball community ranking our pitching prospects as well as they do. Let's remember though that this is what we hired these two guys for; to create a minor-league system that constantly replenishes the MLB pitching staff since the organization either can't or won't spend the free agent dollars necessary to do so. That's what has been happening in Cleveland the last few years and that's the model we need to emulate. I get it that all of these guys are suspects until they appear in the Bigs and perform. Still, I actually have hope that some of these guys will get to the Bigs and perform. In the old days, my most optimistic view of most of our pitching prospects was that they could pitch in the minors for a few years before seeking other employment outside of baseball. If this works, this is the economic model that can keep us competitive. We spend our money on position players like Correa and Buxton, who salaries drop or drop off in a few years to be replaced by high salaries for Lewis and others, have two max starting pitchers making reasonably big dollars but who get locked up early so the dollars are little less ala Lopez, have maybe one bullpen guy with a decent sized salary closing, and have the rest of the pitching staff at least still in arbitration. It's a tough line to walk but having good pitching depth in the Minors is an absolute necessity to make this kind of a structure work.

In classic Twins fashion, we saved our run of poor injury luck for just after the trade deadline (not that we would've traded for anybody any good anyway), leaving the team short at some important positions. It's August, the time when a young Front Office's heart turns to that classic rebound refuge – the waiver wire. I thought it might be interesting to have a place where people can put in the names of anybody they think is available on waivers that would actually help the Twins either as AAA depth or on the current 26 man roster. I actually have three candidates: Ahmed Rosario - The Dodgers just put Rosario on waivers after trading for him due to a roster crunch when Mookie Betts came back. Rosario is actually hitting .305/.331/.435 (.746), and plays a decent shortstop and very good second base. I love me some Willie Castro at the plate playing second base or in the outfield, but he is no shortstop and we don't have one with Correa out. Rosario will get claimed on waivers with only $387,000 left on his contract for the year so we may not get a chance but I think he is definitely worth a claim and would make this team better this year. Martin can go back to AAA to make room on the roster. Also, having Castro go to centerfield may help us if Buxton is down for a couple of weeks with "right hip soreness". Jake Diekman - Left-handed relief pitcher waived by the Mets. Not having a good year this year, 5.63 ERA and 1.40 WHIP, but had a 3.34 ERA last year in 56 innings. He's 37 so maybe he's just falling off a cliff, but it's worth finding that out. He's passed through waivers so would only have to be paid the prorated share of the veterans minimum. I think he's definitely worth a call, particularly if you will go and pitch at AAA for a week or two for evaluation. We need a left-handed reliever – Okert is mediocre at best, Theilbar may be cooked, and Funderburk has yet to show his MLB worthy. I don't think Richards is going to solve the problem as a reverse split pitcher. Brad Keller - Boy, do we need starting pitching death desperately. One more injury and we are toast if we aren't already. Keller just opted to become a free agent from the Red Sox because they optioned him back to AAA when a couple guys came off the IL. He is only 29, and his history shows a guy who's a started a lot of games with a 4.5 - 5.10 ERA, doesn't walk very many guys, but doesn't strike out a lot either. Pretty Meh, but the Twins have taken guys like this and upped their velocity to make them better. I think he's definitely worth a try at AAA and would be a better sixth starter than Randy Dobnak. If you believe MLB Trade Rumors, there are several other veterans who could hit the waiver wire in the next couple of weeks as teams falling out of contention pare salary. Their list is of course behind a pay wall but if last year is any indication, we could see some prominent names whose contracts are expiring out there and available. I would expect some DFA news coming out of Texas, Toronto, Tampa, Miami, Oakland, and maybe even from Washington, the Angels, or the White Sox involving guys on expiring contracts that the team doesn't expect to have next year. We are frankly rapidly running out of players, particularly in the rotation, bullpen, and at shortstop. There ain't much at AAA that we haven't already brought up. Let's leave no stone unturned and try to find guys. I'd love to hear any other suggestions

Interesting concept, but I think the "second leadoff" position - otherwise known as the 9 hole in the lineup - is perfect for a player of Vasquez' abilities.

Couldn't agree more. Time to fire Rocco and hire a billionaire. Is either Elon Musk or Jeff Bezos available?

Castro and Martin don't play the ball hit to Lewis properly to cover second with that shift and we don't get the double play. Wind up giving up the run. We need a new SS; Castro can't play there. Dodgers just DFA'd Ahmed Rosario. He's hitting this year and plays middle IF including a decent S.S.. I think it may be time for a claim and, if we get him, Martin back to AAA.

A positive spin on this is that giving starts to guys like Matthews is exactly what this team should be doing. I started the year thinking this team was one year away from really contending and that this should be the year to get as many innings as possible for guys like SWR, Varland, etc, and as many ABs as possible for guys like Wallner, Julien, Miranda, etc. Then I saw them doing well after that poor start started to think let's get veterans so we can compete deep into the playoffs. The injuries we've recently had reminded me that were probably not quite ready for prime time in that way and that this year should be about finding whether we have the players to fill our three or four holes so that we can try to fill them from free agency if we need to. Two of those holes are the number four and number five starting pitchers. I'm all for giving Matthews a shot, and I would want it to be more than one start unless he gets blown out on Tuesday. It looks like SWR is developing into a strong mid rotation starter whos upside may even be higher. We still need another solid starting pitcher and I'm not sold on Chris Paddack or Varland. I think both will wind up in the bullpen eventually. I would love to see both Festa and Matthews get some regular turns down the stretch so we can see if either one of them can be all long-term starter beginning next year.

I like the piggyback idea and last night’s performance only reinforced my bias in favor of that approach once again, Varland looked great for about three or four innings, four innings last night, and then the wheels completely fell off. I think it is highly unlikely he is even going to be a “five and fly“ starter for the rest of this year. Maybe in the future, but not now. Putting him at the end of a rotation that has two other young starters who rarely go more than five innings is just going to be too much for the bullpen. I think we’re going to have to devote two people to the number five starter spot and go with a seven person bullpen. Maybe that second pitcher can be Randy Dobnak or Josh Winder, although I would try Zebby Matthews. The theory would be that both Varland and the second pitcher don’t pitch on any day except the fifth starter spot and are expected to give the team at least seven innings between them. I think it’s a solution much more likely to be effective than hoping that Varland morphs into a guy that can go five or six competitive innings regularly. If he has a start where he can go six innings, that’s great, and the second pitcher handles the last three.

Doubtful. Most likely only available Saturday or Sunday, not both.

Just saw that it's a Grade 2 Teres strain. Out for "weeks if not months". Ugh. Here's link - https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/08/twins-joe-ryan-teres-major-strain-injured-list-possible-season-ending.html Scott Blewett up for Ryan, Varland as 27th man, lee to IL, Farmer up. Why not Topa? This could get even uglier.

Have you heard or seen anything? Last I saw was 2-3 week type thing.

We'll know a lot more about Varland's fate after tonight's start. If he pitches fairly well, he's the #3 starter until Ryan comes back. If he stinks like he did earlier in the season, he goes back and doesn't come back up until it's time to put him in the bullpen. We also have to cover the KC game on Tuesday the 13th and neither Ober or Varland will have 4 days rest by that time. I think the first move is Ryan to the 15 day IL, Topa up today or sometime this weekend. The second move depends on Varland tonight. If he is good, he's back up to start on the 14th or 15th with the 13th likely a bullpen game started by Winder or Ober on 3 days rest. If Varland gets lit up tonight, Matthews is up to start on the 13th against KC, Ober goes on the 14th and we stay in a 5 man run with Varland or Matthews as the 5th starter depending on who shows better. We put Matthews on the 40 man if we need him by DFA'ing Dobnak. It's very unlikely anyone else will take his contract and he will accept an assignment to AAA to keep the contract. Best thing would be for Varland to pitch tonight like he has in AAA the last few times out but we do have options if he doesn't.

It's my understanding that if Varland comes up designated as the 27th man for a doubleheader they can send him back down and call him up without waiting 10 days. That's a "free" move. I agree, he is a better call than Dobnak now that we need a starter for Tuesday. The problem is that if he pitches Friday he won't be ready to come back by Tuesday so we'll have to find someone else. I think maybe Matthews on a piggyback might be a good approach. Give Matthews basically one or two times through the order, then Winder, and hope you've covered 6 innings. I think Matthews going much more than once or certainly twice through could be a recipe for disaster once MLB hitters see his stuff. His AAA results show that he isn't a finished product yet.

I think you're probably right here. Varland comes up as the 27th man who pitches the second game Friday. He then goes back to St. Paul. SWR goes Saturday, Festa Sunday, Lopez Monday. Ober goes Wednesday so that leaves Tuesday to cover. Too soon to bring Varland back so I think they probably go with either Winder or Dobank as an opener in a bullpen game. The other wildcard here is when they bring up Topa. You have to think that either Dobnak or Winder goes back to AAA to make room unless they decide to put Ryan on the IL. Based on the incredibly small sample size so far, the obvious choice to go back down is Dobnak. My guess is they bring Topa up for the Cleveland series so my guess is that Ryan goes on the IL today or tomorrow for Topa and one of those two will be the opener next Tuesday. They're also going to have to make room for Okert soon. He has to come back from the bereavement list after seven days, which I think might be Tuesday the 13th but hopefully is Wednesday the 14th. Topa up today or tomorrow, then Okert for Winder or Dobnak next Tuesday or Wednesday, hopefully on Wednesday the 14th after Winder starts on the 13th. and then Varland up for whichever one of Winder or Dobnak is still on the roster so he can start next Friday the 16th. The other potential wildcard is whether there's a waiver claim or recently released guy they can pick up to start Tuesday. That would probably mean a DFA of Dobnak, since no one will pick up his contract and he can then be reassigned to AAA. Fun times.

Yeah, if he could play a good CF he's be really valuable. As a part time LF, though, his lack of any power makes him pretty average. I would love to see the Twins send him to a Winter league and do nothing but play CF all winter, or at least train for the position the whole off season. That way he can be the RH hitting 4th OF we need and we don't have to have Margot or his equivalent on the roster next year.

The rotation is good for 3 days, then we're happy if we get 4 or 5 strong innings from SWR and Festa. You're right, that puts a heavy strain on the bullpen. I was hoping Dobnak would be the answer in a long relief role, but that ain't happening. I'm hoping that Varland is the 27th man Friday, starts the second game, and shows that he can be effective for at least two or three innings. Thereafter, I think we have to try to use the bullpen in such a way that Sands and Varland are available for 2 to 3 inning stints as piggybacks to SWR and Festa for the rest of the way. We can get Varland on the 26 man by sending down Dobnak. I'm a little less worried about the lineup. I think were overlooking how good Miranda has been and continues to be, plus Santana has really provided a good bat for the 6 or 7 hole. Margot has been better than I expected the last two months and I'm still hopeful that Kepler will find his power stroke again. I think the lineup will be fine once we get Correa back. The key is getting that rotation to be good enough and I think the key to that is getting a piggy back in place for both SWR and Festa. That and no injuries. An injury to one of the top 3 starters could be catastrophic.

I don't think we need to go that route since we have an off day Thursday. So, going on normal rest, the rotation for Cleveland could be Ober first game Friday, SWR or a 27th man in the second game, skip Festa, Lopez Saturday, Ryan Sunday. That does catch up with us against KC though on Mon-Weds 8/12 -14, where it would have to be Festa, SWR, and Ober. I suspect that Varland comes up as the 27th man for the second game Friday, SWR pitches Saturday, then Lopez Sunday, followed by Ryan, Festa, and Ober, Mon-Weds. against KC.

I think Martin is showing himself to be more of a short term asset at the MLB level than is Lee. I think Lee goes back to AAA when Correa is ready although that could reverse if Lee has a good week. He will be playing SS until Correa is back. Dobnak is a fun story but he just doesn't throw enough strikes to be very effective. He's back in St. Paul as soon as Topa is ready or if they make a move with Varland. I expect Varland up as the 27th man for the doubleheader Friday starting game 2 as a tryout. He ahs the chance to stay up if he pitches well, accommodated by a SWR 10 day IL stint for shoulder fatigue or a demotion of Dobnak. Any more news on when Correa will be back? I did read that he progressed to jogging at Target Field and took a full batting practice session. The only steps left are being able to sprint and a rehab game or two in St. Paul. Correa is hardly a speed burner anyway, I'm not sure the sprinting is all that critical. If he can hit, he's worth playing even if he can only run at 80 or 90%. I'm hoping that he'll be back in St. Paul this week, DH on Tuesday, SS on Wednesday, DH on Thursday, and back with the team on Friday for the Cleveland series.