LA Vikes Fan

Probably too early to panic. Still, this series was pretty brutal. One tweak I would suggest - get Wallner out of the leadoff spot. He didn't hit well there in ST and he isn't hitting well there now. It may be a psychological thing only but whatever it is, he isn't loving the role so far. The lucky thing is that we have a replacement - Willi Castro or even Julien (if he actually gets to play). Hit Wallner 2, Correa 3, Buxton 4, and Larnach 5, hit Castro 1 against righties, 7 against or bench against lefties with Bader moving up to 1. Give Keirsey some ABS in the OF. Keep mixing things up until you find something that works and gets the boys excited. By the way, completely agree on Miranda. Bench time for him with Castro moving to 3B (D up), and Julien to 2B (D down).

Good article. This encapsulates where the Twins really are as a team. They have enough talent to be a true contender if everything clicks (I define a "true contender" as a team has a chance to go to the World Series). Conversely, they have a relatively small margin for error. More so than in past years for sure because of the improved depth of young players getting them more lottery tickets for someone to break out, but still a relatively small margin for error because they won't go out and spend money to fill holes when they appear. This group is it; there is no cavalry coming over the hill to save us. I think the Twins best chance to get to the World Series is the survive and get hot scenario. That starts with the Twins wining 85 – 92 games and taking the Central. Step 2 is they then get hot at the plate and are able to start one of their top three starters almost every playoff game, maybe combined with a lucky match up or one of the best teams getting knocked out early in an upset. All of a sudden they're in the ALCS against a team they can beat like Kansas City, Texas, or Houston, and voilà! They get lucky and make it to the World Series. Is this likely? Of course not. Is it within the reasonable realm of possibility? Absolutely. So I'm saying there's a chance . . .

You got that right. Dobnak is almost as good as a guy with options in that way.

All good points. Paddack has looked better than most in ST. Having said that, he's an injury waiting to happen and has never been consistent. I would be thrilled with 20-25 starts, 125 or so innings, an ERA under 4.25, and a team winning record in games he starts. I think that may be possible. We just have to plan for at least one IL stint and at least 4 weeks of unavailability over the 6 month season.

Agree on all 4 points. The Twins are worth LESS than Baltimore, not more. This reminds of the potential seller in a declining home market who says, "what do you mean we can't list my house for what I want, my neighbor got that two years ago and my house's much nicer"! This is a tough market for mid-level and below baseball teams. No TV money or logical path to getting more outside of the coasts, A lack of consensus and will to change the sport's economic structure to help less fortunate teams. A commissioner who does not appear to be well respected in business circles and has little to no power over the richer teams. I could go on and on. Lot's of red flags here. Hopefully the Pohlads will find a rich guy who wants a sports team on his resume/trophy case who will buy and invest in the tea, I thought Ishbia might be that guy. Hope there's another one, because buying the Twins as a business proposition is high risk/ low reward from a business standpoint.

The high debt shouldn't be a big surprise if we think about it. The team didn't fire staff or cut back on minor league services during Covid-19, a time when there was no gate or concession revenue. They don't draw very well and there seems to be an aversion by some to going into Downtown Minneapolis. The bottom fell out of their TV revenue last year. Put all that together with the fact that while the payroll hasn't increased and is small compared to the coastal teams, it is and has been the highest in the Division and you get a team that has probably been operating in the red for the last couple of years, at least. Hence, the need to take on debt. It could be worse, the Twins could do what Pittsburg, St. Louis, Cleveland, Tampa, Miami, etc. have done and drastically cut payroll to match revenue. Baseball is a tough operating business to make money on without high attendance and significant TV revenue. It's particularly tough in a mid-market city where you can't charge $150 - $200 for a decent seat at the game while drawing 3.5 million fans or more, and you don't get even a $50 million for your TV rights, much less the $100 million plus certain teams get. To make matters worse, there isn't real estate opportunity in the surrounding land like there was for the Wilfs when buying the Vikings, and there is no TV white night on the horizon to open up the money taps and make everything better. Look, I am no fan of the Pohlads and can't wait until they sell the team. I do think they are caught between a rock and a hard place. The value in owning a mid-market sports franchise (other than the NFL) is the value appreciation you realize when you sell. They missed the great selling window 4-5 years ago and are now selling a good but not great team with poor attendance and no TV revenue to speak of into a very uncertain market surrounded by a very uncertain economic situation overall. The most logical buyer is a guy like Steve Cohen of the Mets who is incredibly wealthy, doesn't care if he makes money on an operating level, loves baseball, and is driven by ego and competitiveness to win. There aren't very many of those guys out there and I don't think any of them live in Minnesota. I think a sale will only happen if one of those guys gets interested or the Pohlads drop the price. I'm afraid that neither of those things will happen any time soon.

MLB Trade Rumors is reporting (from Betsy Helfand ) that Keirsey and Gaspar made the team to open 2025. They also speculate that locks in Julien on the team. Martin is being sent to St. Paul. Good decisions in my view. I hope all three get enough playing time while Lee and Lewis are out so we can make an intelligent decision as to who to send down when the time comes.

MIB trade Rumors is reporting (from Betsy Helfand ) that Keirsey and Gaspar made the team to open 2025. They also speculate that locks in Julien on the team. Martin is being sent to St. Paul. Good decisions in my view. I hope all three get enough playing time while Lee and Lewis are out so we can make an intelligent decision as to who to send down when the time comes.

And Wallner, Larnach, and Miranda? It very well may be. 3 of those 4 have to step up for this team to be championship competitive.

Isn't this why Lee dropped far enough in the draft so the Twins could get him? He's got good bat to ball skills, doesn't strike out much, and was projected to move up quickly. On the other hand, he was projected to have below average power, isn't very athletic by MLB standards, is slow, and doesn't take walks. In other words, classic high floor, low ceiling player. I think what we've seen so far validates those projections. He's good enough to be in MLB at least as a bench player on a good team or a starter on a bad one, and he could be as much as an above average regular but he's unlikely to be a star. I think the best case scenario is that he's an above average fielding 2b or 3b (not a SS) who hits 6 or 7 in a solid batting order. A solid complimentary player. Nothing wrong with that but he's not going to carry a team or anything close. Julien has a higher offensive ceiling but a much lower overall floor because he's a butcher in the field. Maybe with time and practice he can improve to average at 2B or 1B but that's probably it and may be a long shot. On the other hand, he could hit .280 plus with a .375 OBP and give us 15-20 HRs a year with an .800 plus OPS who hits in the top 5 in the order. That is within the reasonable range of outcomes and that's a guy who HAS to play somewhere if you can get that out of him. Hitters like that are hard to find. So pick your poison. Lee gives you a more comfortable, predictable range of outcomes. Julien gives you a higher upside but could crap out completely. What do you like better, that comfortable pair of jeans or shoes or that fashion forward suit that's a pain to deal with but impresses the ladies? Frankly, I think we need both. The good news is that with the Lewis injury we'll have a month to see the range of outcomes before there's a decision that has to be made.

I think the opening day lineup has Julien at second base and Lee at third. France is the 1B and Miranda, DH, or vice versa. Miranda will get time at 1B and 3B, with Castro filling in across the infield, particularly at 2B against left-handed, pitching, and sometimes in LF. We will get a month to see how that alignment works defensively and who can hit. Chances are an injury or nonperformance will make the decision as to who hits the bench or the shuttle back to AAA when Lewis is ready to return.

Miranda has been on the 26 man for a month. I suspect that there is really only one battle going on for the last spot. Lee is hitting and on the roster out of ST. Martin is not and is not. The other 3 are battling for that last spot. It comes down to what skill set do want? Semi - Proven hitter with some defensive flexibility between 1B and 2B - Julien. Unproven hitter and older, but good ST hitting, can play 2B, 1B, and be a 3rd Catcher - Gaspar. 5th OF with good defense but unproven bat who tore up AAA last year - Keirsey. My guess is Julien stays, with Gaspar down as AAA IF depth and Keirsey the first OF called up for injury, especially if the injury is to Buxton or Bader. I could see Gaspar over Julien but I would pick Julien if I were betting. Like John says, it all depends on what skill set you value most. Watch. we'll have an injury or two and they will all make the team.

Look, I'd be short term thrilled if France got 400=450 PAs, hit .255/.325/.405, with 20 HRs, and gave us close to average IB defense this year. That's probably the high end of his range but he has done a little better than that in 21021 and 2022 and close to that in 2023, so it's within the realm of possibility. What concerns me is the lack of opportunity for Miranda in that scenario. He's hit .284/.322/.441 (.763), 112 OPS+ in 429 PAs, 401 ABs last year, all at age 26. He needs a place to play every day or at least 4-5 days a week. Why? Because his first 1000 ABs have shown that he is at least an above average hitter and with only a 5% improvement could be a middle of the order mainstay for a team that desperately needs 2 or 3. If this team is going to have a 3-5 year championship competitive run, we need middle of the order type production from three of Lewis, Miranda, Wallner, and Larnach, ideally from all 4. I think there is a reasonable chance that we can get that level of production from at least 3 of those 4 but we can't if they don't get to play enough. The DH spot is properly going to be on a rotation for partial days off, so we have to have a place for Miranda to play in a fairly regular basis. Where is that going to be if not at 1B? 3B, LF, and RF are all taken. Maybe the plan is 2-3 days a week at 1B, 1-2 at 3B, and 2 at DH. It does make wonder how anybody gets good at any position in that kind of scenario. The bottom line is Miranda needs ABs, and he should get them at 1B at France's expense if that's the only available place unless we think France can perform like he did in 2022 AND will be here for the performing at that level for the next 3-5 years. I don't think either of those things are likely to be true.

I agree on Keaschal, Gaspar, and Keirsey but its hard to see a path to the 26 man roster for any of those 3 players unless there is an injury or Julien opens up one spot by being sent to AAA. Julien is hitting in ST. It does seem most likely all three wind up in AAA with their likely opportunity later in the season.

Good article, but I wonder if Lee really is "penciled in" as the starting 2B. He didn't hit last year and hasn't hit in ST. I do think he'll be a long term above average starter in MLB (not a star), but he may not yet be ready. We do have decent 2B options in Castro and Julien. I think Lee stays if he's the starter and because he can back up SS, but if he doesn't win a starting job it makes a lot more sense to send him to AAA as the starting SS playing every day than to play 3 days a week at the MLB level. That gives us some real SS depth if Correa gets hurt again. If we really look at it there is a competition for two position player spots - Buxton, Bader, Larnach, Wallner, France, Correa, Castro, Miranda, Lewis, Jeffers and Vasquez are locks unless they get hurt. The Twins could go with Lee at 2B, and a competition between Julien (2B/1B), Gaspar (2B/C), and Martin (5th OF) for the last spot. If, on the other hand, the team decides to go with Castro or Julien at 2B, then I think Lee goes to AAA and they keep either Gaspar or Martin. I think the Twins want Lee to win the 2B job but he needs to show he can hit MLB pitching and as of yet he hasn't.

I agree. I actually expect Varland to open up as the Closer in St. Paul. He would then be the first guy up for the inevitable injured or ineffective bullpen member assuming he is doing well in AAA. I expect him with the Twins by May 15 and once up, I think he stays up. There's really 3 potential pen spots after Duran, Jax, Stewart (assuming he's healthy),Sands and Coulombe. I think the top 3 likely to make the team are Tonkin, Alcala, and Castellano. Tonkin may be a trade candidate to some desperate team in return for an A ball lottery ticket. If he's gone, the last spots are Castellano and Topa with Varland at AAA. If Tonkin is still with the team, Topa goes to AA because Topa has options and Tonkin does not. I don't think a trade with Philly is likely, so we are going to have to carry Castellano for the year to keep him. They wouldn't have picked him up if they weren't prepared to keep him. My likely bullpen is Duran, Jax, Stewart, Sands, Coulombe, Alcala, Tonkin, and Castellano. Topa makes the team if one of those guys is traded or hurt. Varland starts as the AAA closer so he can get used to high leverage relief experience and then comes up when Stewart goes on Il.

While it seems weird to lead off Wallner to us guys who have been watching baseball since the 60s, it actually does make a lot of sense to have the top5 spots be occupied by your top 5 hitters. Identifying the top 5 hitters on this year's Twins team is pretty easy - Correa, Buxton, Wallner, Lewis and Larnach. Miranda and Jeffers are 6 and 7. I would go Correa, Larnach, Buxton, Wallner, Lewis, Miranda, Jeffers myself, but I could see going Wallner, Correa, Buxton, Larnach, and Lewis for the reasons you mentioned. Will be weird to see but probably the best approach. The differences in plate appearance by batting order number is pretty interesting. Hitting first gives you 13 more PAs per year than 2nd on average, 28 more than third, etc., about 13-15 PAs per spot in the lineup. Each spot in the lineup is worth 13-15 PAs per season than the one directly behind and those amounts accumulate. Better to give those PAs to our better hitters,

Agreed. All of the guys in this price range are a crapshoot and all have warts. Grichuk is a below average fielder, Bell may be cooked and is a poor fielder, Bader can field but is not much of a hitter, France is Bell with a slightly better glove and slightly worse bat, etc. Did we get the "right" guys? Who the hell knows. The FO went for gloves over bats. Fielding tends to last longer so I get the idea. Only time will tell if it's the right call. Frankly, if my choice were two of the above 4, I would probably have gone with Bader and Bell but I would have had to find another $4m or so for that combo. And, by the way, I would keep Keirsey as the 5th OF and keep Castro in the IF UTL slot rather than Julien as a backup IF with Castro as a backup OF assuming the bench will be Vasquez/Jeffers, Lee, Castro and one of Julien, Martin, Gaspar, or Keirsey. Any bets of which of those last 4 makes the team? While I'd prefer Keirsey, my money's on Julien.

Don’t these stats prove that the Twins were right to platoon these hitters except for Kepler? The goal is to win games. Guys being put in situations where they consistently fail doesn’t help you win games. I think Wallner and Larnach will get a chance in ST to show they can hit LHs since we appear to be going with 4 OFs plus Castro, who also doesn’t hit LH pitching.

Agree on Lee, at least for ST, but I think they need him to make the team to be the backup SS. Castro stinks at SS and we don't have anyone else unless they think Lewis can still play SS (and he can't). I think it's a 60/40 time share at 2B between Castro and Lee, with Castro getting some time at 3B but not a lot. I think 3B is 70/30 Lewis and Miranda, with Miranda also getting the short end of a 60/40 split at 1B with France. The DH spot is an amalgam of Lewis, Buxton, Miranda, France, and off days for Correa, Wallner, and Jeffers. Larnach and Bader are a pretty strict LF platoon, with Bader also on the short end of a 60/40 split in CF and a late inning defensive replacement. This all leaves one more spot. Who gets it - Julien, Keirsey, Gaspar, Ford, or Martin? I think you look to the most unsettled positions and see who fits those positions. Those are 2B, a RH hitting corner OF, and a LH hitting 1B.. Julien can play 1B and 2B (sort of) and Martin can play OF and 2B (sort of). I have to think those two have the best shot in that order. Although I'd love to see Keirsey force his way onto the opening day roster by continuing to play this well throughout ST, I think it requires an OF injury for him to make the club out of ST or during the season for that matter. I think Gaspar and Ford are AAA depth unless they have a strong desire to have an emergency C on the 26 man roster and they keep Gaspar.

I'm in on 7 of the 10. I htink you're right on with 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, and 9. Contraries: 6 - Ty France makes the roster and starts at 1B or DH 4-5 days a week. Hits around .255/.325/.410 (.735) with meh defense and is lauded for his "veteran leadership". Plays somewhere else in 2026. 8 - Twins don't trade for Framber Valdez at the deadline because the Astros are in their division race and he costs too much ($18m). Instead go with who they have in pitching, with Festa in the rotation by June 15 for the rest of the year due to an injury to one of the starting 5. Do trade for a 2B and/or RH hitting OF/DH who hits LH pitching well (my predictions on who below). 10 - Twins win right around 88-90 games, finish second in the division to Detroit (!), who wins 93. Twins get a Wild Card, beat Baltimore in WC round, beat Texas in ALDS, lose to Yankees or Boston in ALCS. And now for #11 - 11- Twins announce new buyer by All Star break, group lead by random billionaire you've never hear of with Tori Hunter or Justin Morneau part of the group. Allows Pohlads to swallow hard and trade good prospect(s) for Luis Rengifo and Taylor Ward from the Angels to play 2B and RH hitting OF/DH, respectively .

I'm wondering if maybe Varland starts out as the AAA closer to get him used to late inning, high stress relief work. He's then the first RP up and pitches in late inning situations and as the "backup closer" so Jax can stay as the guy that faces the heart of the other teams' lineup in the 7th or 8th inning. Those two plus Duran and the 30-40 innings we get from Stewart this year could be a pretty formidable back end of the bullpen.

Bader is here as the platoon RH hitting OF, the question is with whom he will platoon. It's early but I'm betting that both Wallner and Larnach will get more ABs against LH pitching this spring to see who can hit it. Wallner is the leader in the clubhouse, especially with Rocco saying that he wants Bader's defense in LF. My money is on Wallner as a most every day player in RF with Larnach in a pretty strict platoon with Bader in LF and Bader getting a day or three in CF with Buxton at DH or sitting. With Castro able to play a passable OF, there's no pressing need for a 5th OF and probably no room at the inn for Martin or Keirsey as a backup OF. Fight for the last two position player roster spots (unless there's trade, but I don't think there will be) - Lee, Julien, Martin, Gaspar, and Keirsey, and one of them has to play 2B so Castro can be the UTL. Lee gets in if he hits at all because he's able to play 2B and also be the backup SS. Of the other 4, it cold be any of them for the last spot but I'm guessing Julien.. .

Agreed. Classic negotiating move of playing one against the other. Ishbia used the Twins opportunity to cut a better deal on taking over the White Sox. He wasn’t the only potential buyer, he’s the only publicly identified potential buyer. I think we all got a little head of ourselves because we’re hoping for improvement with Pohlad gone. We went through this drama in LA before the current group bought the Dodgers. My guess is that this isn’t the last twist and turn in the saga. Well, I guess we’ll find out how robust that market really is.

Agreed. We need a total of roughly 60-65 starts from the starters vying for the #4 and #5 spots in the rotation if the top 3 are healthy all year - more if they aren't. Most likely we will need 70 plus starts from that group. We aren't going to get that from 2 pitchers or even 3. We will need at least 4 and maybe more. My guess is that Paddack gets 20-25 starts, same for SWR, 15-20 for Festa, 10-15 for Matthews, and 5 or so from "other". To me, that's why we keep Paddack unless some team wants to trade us a starting caliber OF bat for him, which seems unlikely. If we can get 23-25 starts, 120-140 innings of 4 - 4.3 ERA work from Paddack he will be a great addition to the rotation at a very good price. I'm hopeful we can. I put the odds at 60/40 in favor but hey, I'm an optimist.