LA Vikes Fan

Agreed. I think the dust needs to settle out a little on the FA starters before that deal can be made. The picture will be much clearer once Ohtani, Snell, Stroman, Rodriguez, and Yamamoto sign contracts, Those clubs left our will then pivot to the Twins likely targets in Seattle and Miami. I doubt that those two clubs will entertain a trade until that part of the market shakes out and they can create some competition. The Winter Meetings are key to laying out a baseline for what we want and are willing to give that will hopefully come to fruition in January/February.

The prospect necessary to go with Kepler and Polanco for Gilbert? Brooks Lee, Kepler and Polanco is almost a perfect match at baseball trade values. So is Kepler, Polanco, Emmanuel Rodriguez and either Wallner or Varland. In other words, Gilbert is worth 2 vets with good numbers on good contracts, plus either our #1 prospect (or #2 depending on how you value Walter Jenkins), OR a high upside OF in Rodriguez PLUS a potential starter in Varland or a high upside slugger in Wallner. In other words, a heck of a lot more than Kepler plus Polanco. Let's get dreams of Gilbert out of our heads. Not only would Seattle be crazy to trade him, he is waaaay too expensive in terms of talent necessary to acquire him. The realistic options are Bryan Woo or Bryce Miller. Those guys match up with a Polanco plus Rodriguez return, or even straight up for Eduard Julien with the Mariners throwing in a good but not great MLB reliever like Justin Topa.

That's not really a good way to use BTV. They give Vasquez a -10 because of his contract, not because of his value as a player. He has positive value as a player so Julien and Vasquez for Miller is a terrible deal unless you're desperate to move the contract that you attach a high upside young player to get someone to take on the money. Negative as we are about the payroll there's no indication that a salary dump is in the works.

This is right and applies to Polanco and Kepler as well as to Vasquez. In a perfect world we would keep all three AND get a #2/3 SP in FA -very unlikely given the prices - or through a trade - also unlikely since giving up one of the 3 is likely part of the trade price unless we want to give up multiple young options (not happening). We have replacements for all 3 guys, but all those replacements carry risk. We simply don't have enough information on the potential trade return to know if trading Vasquez is smart, dumb, or simply a calculated risk. Still, it's fun to speculate. I think all 3 of those guys plus everyone else on the roster not a SP or named Duran, Correa, Buxton or Lewis is out there being shopped right now. Frankly, they should be. This roster is good but has needs and some surplusage in the IF in particular. We aren't willing to pay the inflated SP prices except maybe for a Seth Lugo type so any improvement will have to come via a trade. And any trade will mean someone we'd rather keep will be gone. I think getting a solid young mid-rotation starter with upside is the #1 priority (think Bryce Miller, Bryan Woo, Edward Cabrerra, etc.). If that means trading Vasquez, Polanco , Kepler, or even Wallner, Julien or Kirilloff alone or as part of a package, we got to do it. Trading Polanco and Wallner almost gets you Woo or Miller and a reliever like Justin Topa (according to BTV). So does trading Kirilloff and Wallner, and maybe throwing in a Vasquez and paying half of his salary gets that over the top. Polanco and Kirilloff gets you Edward Cabrera. There are endless permutations. We have to be willing to do make this kind of a move if we want to upgrade the starting pitching. I don't think anyone should be untouchable other than Lewis, Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Correa, Lee, and Duran. The key unknown is what we can get back and it's starting pitching we want and need. Anyone else should be available to trade for that.

The markets might be comparable but the Cards have a lot more money due to better attendance and a better TV deal. The Cards drew over 3m to a 71 win team; the Twins less than 2m to a division winning team. Look back and you see the same thing over and over - the Cards regularly draw more than 3 million fans, the Twins are stuck around 2 million. A 1 million dollar gate difference at even $30 - $50 a ticket - seems low to me but I live in LA - that's the extra $30m to $50m in revenue for a $25m higher payroll if you spend most of it on players. Also, Cards are a long time regional franchise with a big following and have a better TV deal. Up to $25m more per year. Put that together and even assuming you only use 50% of the revenue difference from just attendance and TV revenue on player payroll you get a $25m-$40m payroll difference. Bottom line, Twins and Cards are NOT comparable revenue teams. I would say the Cards are a Tier 2 team (behind NY, LA, Bos. Atl) like Philly, the Cubs, the Angels, Houston or the Rangers. Twins are a Tier 3/4 team like Detroit, Seattle, Baltimore, or maybe the White Sox. Simply not the same.

I'd love to get Glasnow but I think it's a pipe dream that we would add a $25m pitcher with only one year of control. If we were willing to spend $25m on a pitcher we would offer it to Sonny Gray for 2-3 years and sign him. Just not happening. Still, I like the idea of trading with Tampa because I think we have the young hitting talent they need. Do they have any other SP talent that we could try to get? Maybe try to take CIvale and hope he bounces back? I didn't see much else on their roster.

Polanco plus Lee should get us Miller or Woo, but that's too high a price for me. Would Polanco plus Farmer get us Miller or Woo? Maybe if we add in an 15-30 prospect? Maybe a Corey Lewis, SWR type? That I would do.

Much as I value Polanco for his clutch hitting, I agree that he is the most expendable piece that is likely to find a return. Not by himself, but as part of a package with a prospect. I like the Gilbert trade even though I would really like to keep E-Rod. That's a good value for value swap. I also agree that Julien is the 2B of the future or at least until Lee shows he can dominate at AAA (he hasn't yet even shown he's a good AAA hitter), when he might come up and force a move to 2B for Lewis. I would be ok trading Julien and have Polanco stay at 2B with Lee in the background but only for a higher end starter with multiple years of control. I don't know that Julien will fetch that even in a package with someone like Mercedes or Winder. I would not trade away Raya or Festa as part of a package for anything less than an established top of the rotation starter with at least 2 years of control. You don't trade your top pitching prospects unless you have a surfeit of young pitching. We don't. Seattle is the best trade partner for us since they need a 2B (Polanco or Julien). I would explore Miller, Woo, and even Hancock as possibilities depending on the "plus" needed to go with a 2B to get them. The plus is only from the Twins on Woo and Miller, Seattle adds the plus if we get Hancock.

While I would love to see the Twins add Kirby or Gilbert, I think the prospect cost will be too prohibitive. It probably starts with Lee or Julien and requires quality add ons beyond that. I don't think Polanco plus even Julien or Lee gets you either one. We'd have to add a quality pitching prospect like Raya. Starting pitching is the most expensive bauble on the shelf and Seattle isn't go to sell theirs below market value. On the other hand, Polanco plus might get you in the running for Woo, Hancock or Miller, the level dependent upon the plus. Woo might be had for Polanco, Larnach, and an SWR or 11-20 prospect, Hancock for maybe just Polanco with the Mariners throwing in a 20-30 prospect of their own. Miller is going to cost us Polanco, Larnach, plus someone better like Festa or even Prilepp or Varland. Frankly, I would do all of those deals for the pitching we need except I wouldn't trade Varland. I think we're all focusing too much on finding a #2 to replace Gray. I think the Twins think they already have that replacement in Paddack. He's not as good yet and will have an innings limit this year but I think they're going to roll with him, Ryan and Ober in the 2-4 spots. I suspect what they really want is a prospect on the way up type to compete with Varland for the #5 spot with upside in a trade. I think the plan might be to trade Polanco for a guy like that, say Hancock, and then sign a veteran with upside but question marks like our old friend Kenta Maeda, Frankie Montas, Severino, Seth Lugo, or even Brad Keller. They can then use that vet in the #5 hole to start with Varland and the acquired prospect getting 10-15 starts apiece as an injury replacement in the hope one of them can establish himself as a mid-rotation guy going forward.

The only reasons to get rid of Gordon before ST is if there's a decent trade return on a trade he can be a part of or to save the $1m expected arb salary. I doubt if the trade exists unless he's part of a package and I have to think the hope that his 2022 performance was real is worth $1m contract. I say we keep him through ST, see if his performance reverts to 2022 and/or there's a need based upon an injury or trade of someone else. We can probably trade him at the end of ST to lose the contract and it shouldn't be a huge deal even if we have to DFA him then in the hope he goes to St. Paul.

Absolutely right and probably how it will and should go with Martin, Lee, Camargo, etc. IF it goes well. These guys come up, have trouble, go back, come up again, do better, etc. All of the players motioned will get opportunities during the first half of the year as injury replacements and none of them has so torn up AAA that staying there is a waste of time. I think counting on any of them as important reserves at the beginning of the season is very problematic and counting on them as starters is a fool's errand. That isn't to say we shouldn't trade Polanco or Kepler if a good deal for stating pitching comes along. We'd be taking a big chance given what we have behind them but it could be worth doing for the right starter. Having said that, trading those two for prospects or to open up a spot for a minor leaguer doesn't make a lot of sense to me IF the goal is to compete in 2024 and advance farther in the playoffs. These guys will get their chance in time. No need to force anything.

Glad someone raised what I thought I remembered. Julien was not a good hitter the last 2 months of the season. Could just be a rookie going through adjustments, could be that he isn't more than a .250/.350/.375 kind of hitter. He's improved at 2B, from pretty bad to right around average, unlikely ever to be a much better than average or slightly above average fielder. I hope I'm wrong on both counts but that may be who he is - a slightly above average 2B who's primary calling card is the ability to draw walks. Not a bad guy to have, but not a core guy at 2B. He also might regress to an offensive liability. Oh that's right, if Julien regresses, we got Brooks Lee. Well, Lee might be an all-star some day but let's pump the brakes a bit. We always see his overall MiLB stats but let's throw out AA and focus on AAA. He hit .237/.304/.429(.733) in AAA. That doesn't sound like a guy ready for the bigs in 2024. Not even close. This is what makes the Polanco decision tough. The alternatives are there but far from assured. If we can get mid rotation or higher starting pitching for him or with him leading a package, then great make the trade. In the more likely event that we can't, it's a big risk to move him for prospects or a back end innings eater starter.

I agree with you on Polanco but disagree on Julien. I think the FO sees him as the full time 2B next year if he continues to hit and continues to improve defensively. I think he is the expected longer term 2B at least until Lee actually hits at AAA. That hasn't happened yet. . Personally, I'd love to keep Polanco because he is a clutch hitter and a good teammate. I wish he could have the Farmer role people are talking about but his defensive decline makes that difficult to see. I would also think about giving him a 1B glove instead of looking for a free agent. Unfortunately, I think he's likely to be traded for pitching if there's a market.

There's really three questions. First, I think this is right. Kepler stays, Polanco goes if there is a good trade option for pitching prospects. Not because Kepler is better than Polanco but because we have a replacement for Polanco in Julien, with Martin and Lee waiting behind him. Keeping Kepler keeps Kirilloff at 1B where he belongs probably in a platoon type situation with Miranda. The $10m we save goes either towards a starter, reliever, or CF. I'd rather keep Polanco because I think he's one of the most clutch hitters on the team but trading him just makes too much logical sense if we can get a good return. Second is Farmer. Would love to keep him. Good leader, solid to excellent fielder, can play SS, relatively cheap at $5-6m a year. I would be surprised if he's non-tendered. Wrong poker move. You tender him, try to sign him for $4-5m with a promise not to trade him, if he says no you go to arb where he probably gets $6m, and then you decide what to do. By then, the landscape will be in much better focus. Not smart to just give him away for free with a non-tender. Yes, he is replaceable with Castro and Gordon, who are not as good, and Lewis, Castro or Lee can play SS if Correa gets hurt. The good news is that if he is made available Farmer is the best SS option out there for a needy team, by far. I think a package of Farmer plus a solid prospect (think Prato, Keirsey, or Martin, not Festa, Lee or Jenkins) might be the basis for a solid to strong MLB reliever or even a really good AA pitcher, plus a high upside A ball guy from another team. As with Polanco, I think it depends on whether there's a good trade out there for Farmer. Third, what do we do for starting pitching? I don't think we sign a FA starter to replace Gray who only stays if he takes the QO or something in that range over 2 years. I think that's unlikely. Let's not forget that the Twins may think they already have his replacement in Chris Paddack. I could see us using some of the money from trading Polanco and/or Farmer to sign a #4 starter or reclamation type. Think Seth Lugo, James Paxton, Frankie Montas - someone that will take 1 or 2 yrs at $10-14m a year. That may even be Kenta Maeda for a little less than that. If you trade Polanco and/or Farmer, that gives you $5-15m depending on the salaries of the guys you get back. You add that to the $10-15m in slack we have and you have enough for the back end or reclamation starter or a guy like Giolito on a 1 year prove it deal, a decent reliever, and for a Taylor or Kiermeir to play CF. IF you don't trade either, you roll with what you have by re-signing Taylor and maybe Maeda for the $10-15m you already have and Varland is the #5 or #6 starter. I like option 1 the best much I would like to keep Polanco and Farmer, but could live with option 2.

If those are correct, the only ones that interest me are Rodriguez (4 yrs/ $82m), Stroman (2 yrs/ $44m), and Giolito (2 yrs/ $44m), in that order. Imanaga is interesting but pretty much a complete crapshoot on a long contract for a 30 year old. Gray at 3 years, $65m works - 1 year less, little less AAV - but I do think he'll get 4 years from somebody and probably more AAV so he'll be out of what the Twins perceive as their price range.

I think Farmer comes back unless the FO and manager believe that they have a good replacement at SS for the 20-40 games Correa either rests or is unavailable AND we can get a good return in a trade. Having a competent fielding SS is pretty close to an absolute requirement on a MLB team. The backup SS doesn't have to hit but he absolutely has to have a plus glove. Can Lewis hold down SS? I don't think either Polanco or Castro can field the position at a good enough level to be the backup. There doesn't seem to be anyone at the AAA level either so having a decent glove to back up Correa is a necessity. I think the Twins trade Farmer if they think the have that backup SS, who I think has to be Lewis. I think Lewis can do the job so I would explore the trade market for Farmer. Famer is better than the best available SS out there. I expect the Twins to trade Farmer if they can get a good return like an established quality LH reliver with more than 1 year of control. If so, Farmer goes and either Gordon makes the team or Solano stays. If not, there is no room at the Inn for either of them.

I hope you're wrong on the roster because that group looks one starter in the #2-#3 range and at least 2 relievers short of being competitive in the deep playoff run sense. The good news is that you still have $33m to spend if we assume a $150m payroll. I accept your lineup construction as the right one, but tweak the pitching as follows: (1) Sign Sonny Gray for 3 years/$66m. Louie Varland becomes the SP1 in St. Paul, gets 10 – 15 starts for the Twins as an injury/rest replacement. Perfect way to find out if he could be a full-time MLB starter in 2025 or should transition to bullpen. I wanted to put Varland in the bullpen right away because I think he could be incredibly valuable as an 8th inning/alternative closer guy but I think they're one year away from making that decision given that he really, really wants to stay a starter. Payroll up $21.25m to $138.5M. (2) Sign Matt Moore as a LH reliever for $5-7.5m and either Jordan Hicks or Renaldo Lopez as a RH reliever for $3-4m for the bullpen. Moran and Sands go to St. Paul, saving 1.5 million. Payroll up between $8m and $12m, final total in the $145 –150m range. It doesn't necessarily have to be 2 of these 3 guys; the concept is to sign 2 experienced quality relievers, one of whom is left-handed, to both round out the bullpen and provide an alternative "closer" to close out games so Duran doesn't have to pitch four days a week. I think you have to dedicate about $9-13m a year to get those 2 guys, which is offset by taking two $750,000 year guys and putting them in the minors.. I would be happy to sign Maeda as one of the two relievers if he is willing to be a reliever/6th starter but I think he will get at least a two-year deal somewhere else to be a starting pitcher in the $10 – $12 million a year range. I see Maeda as more of a fallback if Sonny Gray leaves. I would be willing to pay Maeda $10-12m a year on a two year deal, and put him in as the #4 or #5 starter if Gray leaves. Don't think we can/will pay both. I think it is a year too soon to think of Varland as part of an opening day starting rotation but I do think it's the year were going to find out if he can be that in 2025 forward. I wish they could convince him that the right career path is to transition to a late inning reliever now because I think he could be awesome in that role but I understand why he wants to remain a starter -- the contract difference is roughly $10-15m a year between a quality bullpen. guy and a quality mid rotation starter. Hard to walk away from that if you think you can be that mid rotation starter.

I agree with your logic but I'm in between your number and the 3/$60m prediction. I think he'll get 3 years.$65-66m. I'm in favor of re-signing him for that price. I fear you might be correct that anything like that will be more than the Twins will be willing to pay.

Agreed but seemds very unlikely. Chris Bassitt got 3 years/$63m last year with stats very similar to Gray. Bassitt got that for his ages 34-36 seasons, exactly where Gray is now. You gotta think Gray will get or exceed that contract a year later after the best year of his career. I think Gray gets at least 3 years/$65-70m and might get 4 years at that same AAV, 4 years/90-100m. At 3 years $68m or less, I vote for signing him. At 4 years, no. I'd rather pony up as much as 5 years/130m for Jordan Montgomery. As good or better than Gray, younger, and playoff tested. Still I don't expect the Twins to think they have the resources to do that. I actually expect Montgomery to wind up on the Dodgers. So with that, I'm back to keep Gray at 3 years/$65-68m if you can.

I don't any of the 3 start with the Twins; all start the season at AAA. They should play Martin as the everyway CF, Lee as the everyday 3B and Severino at 1B. Play them where they would play with the Twins, that's what the minors are for. All 3 could get a chance this year in the bigs if they produce in AAA. There is no need to rush any of them and no obvious place where any of them would be an upgrade. Let's also put one thing to bed - Lewis is not going to the OF. The Twins have made that decision and it isn't going to change. I think Lewis is the everyday 3B until Correa moves there and Lewis becomes the SS. That's been the plan and there is no reason to change that plan.

I've read that he doesn't use his legs much when he throws and that limits his velocity. He sounds like the type of pitcher the Twins have had some success with by incorporating their legs into their throwing motion and increasing velocity. This guy sounds like a classic minor leader that could benefit from going to Driveline or something similar to work on velocity. If he can even get the 93 – 95, that can make a huge difference.

I agree although i would prefer to se them re-sign Gray than Maeda. I suspect the Twins will re-sign one of those two - maybe Gray for 3 years 65-70m, or Maeda for 2 years, 15m - and then seek depth by picking up a bounce back candidate like a rehabbing Odorrizzi or someone coming of a poor year like Giolito, Paxton or Montas. I'd love to see them make a run at Montgomery or Rodriquez but I think they will be too expensive. Paddack goes to #3 after Lopez and Gray, or #2 wiwth Maeda #4.

I live in LA and the rumor here is that he was a bad teammate. Wen the allegations against him arose, the Dodgers supposedly canvassed the team to see if they should keep him around. The sentiment of the players was reportedly to get rid of him. No love from his teammates and no reported thought here of bringing him back. Given all of the baggage, I wouldn't be in favor of signing Bauer. I'll actually be surprised if he lands with an MLB team for next year.

I think it depends a lot on how long he wants to pitch. I have to believe that there is at least the three year, $63 million deal that Chris Bassitt got last year out there for Gray. Gray is a year younger so the analogy is good and they have similar stats. If Gray is willing to take a three year deal, I think the Twins should offer him something similar and I think that would be a competitive offer. I do think there will be at least one team that will offer him four years at a slightly higher AAV or three years at a significantly higher AAV. Something like four years, $90 million or three years, $70-75 million. I think if Gray is willing to take a three year deal the Twins will offer him one and there's an even money chance he stays. If he is looking for four years now, I think he's gone because someone else will offer that and the Twins will not. Bottom line, I think it's a very close call but it is more likely than not that he winds up somewhere else next year.

Unless Hoskins us available relatively cheap (unlikely) I would stay with in house options. and I think we have a few. Start the season with a decision of whether Julien is your long term 2B or whether you want that position available for Lee in 2024 or 2025. I think Julien is the 2B for the next 5 years so I put him at 2B, and give Polanco a 1B glove to learn the position as part of being a super utility guy. I also don't understand the doom and gloom on Miranda. He was hurt last year and it showed when he tried to play. IF he is healthy, he and Polanco share 1B while Polanco and Julien share 2B. Great platoon since you have a RH hitter, LH hitter and switch hitter. Miranda hit in AA, he hit in AAA, and hit in 2022 at the MLB level. If he isn't healthy, then Polanco is the primary 1B and you have a spot open for Larnach, Severino, or Lee (with Julien moving to 1B), whichever one looks the best in ST. Bring in a guy on the way up from the system, not some older mediocre vet (unless you can get Hoskins since he's better than mediocre). In either event, Solano is gone and Farmer stays. Donnie barrels was a nice regular season guy last year, but he didn't hit in the playoffs, has no power to speak of, is a below average fielder, and is 36 so he isn't likely to get better, he's likely to get worse. I know that sounds very cold but that's what we need to be in the off season. The IF group is then Lewis, Correa, Julien, Polanco, Farmer, and Miranda if he's healthy and swinging well, or Larnach, Severino or Lee if he isn't. AK can break into that group when he's healthy in place of whoever is hurt or ineffective (and at least one of them will be one or the other). I think the plan will be Miranda at 1B with Polanco a super utility IF/platoon 1B/insurance for Julien at 2B/DH unless Miranda can't go. And I think that's the right plan. Save your free agent money for pitching, pitching, and more pitching.