LA Vikes Fan

I think this is right on although I think the floor is a little higher (around 80 wins). The pieces are there IF they all or mostly perform. We could have one of the group in #4 fall off if Bader, Martin, etc. are at least league average or slightly better. The top 3 points pretty much have to happen though for the Twins to win 90 plus games. A 2 or 3 month injury to any of the top 3 starters, Correa, Lewis, or Buxton, probably dooms the season. 2 of the "other 4" potential starting pitchers have to perform at an average or better level or we also have big problems. With that said I'm actually pretty optimistic that we will win 85+ games with our pitching and could hit 90-94 wins if everything comes together. The talent is there but the margin for error is small. The real question is health.

I'm not as high on Lee as others here. I would love to see him have the defensive chops to play 2B at a high level because I think that's where his bat profiles. From here, he looks like a .265/.335/.420 type guy with a below 20% SO rate IF things go well. Nothing wrong with that; that's a solid to above average regular at 2B and maybe even at 3B. His bat is certainly good enough for 2B but probably not good enough to play 3B because of the lack of power unless the team gets power from an unusual position like 2B or SS. You also have to add in the complete lack of any speed (man runs like a catcher) and the fact that he may have a chronic back issue to manage. I think his highest and best use is as a great glove, solid to good bat 2B that hits in the 6 or 7 hole although I can see the temptation to make him the 3B and Lewis the 2B given their throwing arms (Lee good, Lewis erratic). Frankly this is kind of similar to the scouting report when Lee came out. Advanced bat, close to MLB ready, good chance to be a solid MLB regular, limited ceiling. And I'm just fine with that. Let's just not assume he will be more than a complimentary player on a good team if things work out. His "make" level is not as high as some others if we are realistic about what he brings to the table.

I think we need to put the Rocco has a “quick hook“ narrative to bed. I’ve been around a while and I remember when you expected every starter to go seven innings. Baseball isn’t played that way anymore, mostly because of the increased injury risk from those extra innings and the cost of starters. Starters did not last as many seasons in the old days because they pitched them so hard. Now we expect starting pitchers to go well into their mid 30s and we pay them so much that is just not worth taking a lot of extra risk, especially during your average midseason game. The Twins averaged 5.28 innings per start last year. The highest was the Braves at 5.58 innings per start, the average was 5.2. The Twins were tied for 12th Place in MLB for innings per start, so a little above average. Bottom line is that Rocco doesn’t pull starting pitchers any earlier than anybody else or at least didn’t last year. The evidence suggests that it’s unfair to criticize him for having a “quick hook” overall. He’s frankly more patient than many.

It may even be simpler than this. tell Buxton he could hit better with better core strength and have him exercise in a way to improve that strength. He will then increase his swing speed if his swing doesn't change or his body will naturally compensate with a slightly shorter swing to maintain his balance, both good results. With Lewis, tell him to swing had and to worry about SOs, his swing lengthens, and his bat speed increases. I know its not this easy but this would help both guys.

MLB Trade Rumors is reporting that the Twins traded Michael Helman to St. Louis for cash. It does not say how much cash. Well, I guess we now know how the team is paying ofr Bader and one of the players going to create a 40 man vacancy. Not very exciting.

I think the Twins have had the 2nd best offseason in the division. Detroit added Flaherty and Cobb to the rotation, Kahnle to the bullpen, and Torres to the IF. They are really improved on the pitching side (Torres is a meh addition) and now can run out Skubal, Flaherty and Cobb for a 3 game series. That's better than our top 3 because Skubal is probably the #1 or #2 starter in the American League depending on Gerrit Cole's health and Lopez = Flaherty. The bullpens are pretty similar, maybe ours a little better, and the Twins hit a little better last year but the Tigers have some guys coming back from injury sop they may hit better than we do in 2925. I predict the Central to be a very close race this year. My guess is that it will be won by Detroit with 90-92 wins, followed by the Twins at 86-90, KC and Cleveland both at 82-87, and the White Sox at below 70 wins. Frankly, all of the top 4 teams could finish 1st to 4th and win 82-92 games. Should be an exciting year.

I understand that mindset but just don't agree. I think the Twins plan on playing Miranda at 1B every day and the backup plan is Julien. To me, 1B is an offense first position and it is not worth playing a guy there who can't hit much no matter who good the glove. Plus, Rizzo is at most a 1 year stop gap who does nothing for the the next 2-4 years for this team. We need to develop the core for the hopefully opening window to really contend. Rizzo does nothing to help us do that.

I disagree. My view is that Larnach and Wallner play 5-6 days a week, 4 in the OF and 1 at DH for at least the first half of the season. That includes starting against LH pitching. Bader get his ABs in CF with Buxton playing 4 days a week there and 1-2 at DH, plus the inevitable Il stint for Buxton. The DH spot is a rotation of guys that includes Lewis and Mirnada. Bader gets his 200-250 ABs in the 50-70 games he has to start in CF for Buxton. This is the year to find out if Larnach and Wallner can be everyday players or are platoon guys. Play them every day.

I think you're right on Mountcastle's value. He should fetch a younger high upside pitcher plus. That plus could be a back end starter type now or an MiLB pitcher with upside. Something like Festa or Matthews plus Paddack or Culpepper. Probably a little more than I would do for a guy who's a Free agent in 2 seasons. I would trade Paddack plus the MiLB pitcher, say their choice of Culpepper or even Cory Lewis, but that probably isn't enough.

I love the Mountcastle idea but God, I hope you're wrong on Rizzo. He is cooked. OPS of .706 is 2023 and .638 in 2024 playing in that LH hitting bandbox called Yankee Stadium. He hits LH and his OPS was even worse against LH pitching at .536 in 2024. He'll be 36 this year. He does nothing to address our actual needs except give us a better glove at 1B. Mountcastle, sure for the right price (AAA starting pitching or Paddack, not any of the top 4). Rizzo? Please dear God, no.

I would normally completely agree with you but I just don't think we have that young guy to play CF. Keirsey strikes me more as a "floor setter" at best, not a guy that's going to increase the team's upside. Emma is at least a year away from a regular job although it would be great to see him come up and get his feet wet this season. I agree that you got to "let the young guys play" and strongly advocate for at least 500 PAs for all of Wallner, Larnach, and Miranda, and 300+ PAs for Julien, Lee and Martin. Unfortunately, we saw what would happen if we used our current group to replace Buxton for any significant period last year and the result was not pretty. It's not that none of these guys have the potential to hit better than Bader, it's that none of these guys can play a competent CF. CF and SS are the spots where you have to have a competent glove man so I'm okay with this signing, What I wouldn't be okay with is Bader taking a lot of at-bats away from Wallner or Larnach. Bader will take some until those two guys prove they can hit left-handed pitching, and you do have to give them a chance. I see Bader as much more a traditional fourth outfielder who plays two or three days a week to give Buxton a couple days off/DH days, and hit left-handed starting pitching,

I don't think Bader is a big step up for the Twins (hope I'm wrong), but I agree that the idea he's "blocking" Emma just doesn't make a lot of sense. Could Emma come up this year and get his feet wet? Absolutely, and I hope it happens. He is not ready to break camp on the 26 man roster and needs to show more before he's given a run in MLB playing 5 days a week. And if he's not going to play 5 days a week, he belongs in the Minors playing every day and showing he can tear up AAA pitching, get his AAA SO % down to at least 25% or below, and stay healthy for half a season. Emma was never the answer to "who will be the 4th OF/backup CF from April to July"? He wasn't even one of the multiple choices. Bader replaces Keirsey or Martin and moves Castro back to 2B/UTL. As for the second half of the year, I predict that injuries will give some AAA OFs a shot at playing time. If Emma is raking at AAA, he's likely to get a shot. If he isn't, he won't. I understand the argument that once they pay Bader 6m+ he stays for the year. New ownership may change that.

Classic 4th Outfielder. Good glove, can play at least a solid CF, not much of a hitter. Hopefully Buxton will be healthy enough so that Bader gets 250 ABs or less in CF. The only way he should play in the corners much at all is if his bat against LH is his 2023 bat (.299/.361/.575 (.936)), and not his 2024 bat against LHs (.204/.261/.350 (.612)). Also this means there isn't room for Martin and Keirsey on the 26 man roster absent a trade, although they will both undoubtedly get shots in 2025 due to injury.. Makes one curious as to whether they are part of an upcoming trade to open up the 40 man for Coulombe and Bader.

Makes one think there is a trade in the works that will open up 1 or 2 40 man spots, perhaps plus a DFA. I'm guessing the two spots are presently occupied by some combination of Paddack (traded), Henriquez, Headrick, and Keirsey (DFA since he is now pretty redundant with Bader the backup CF).

Hard to see how Canha is any better than the younger alternatives like Miranda, Larnach, Castro or even Martin or Julien. Add in the fact that at 35 Canha is who he is, whereas the others still have at least some room to improve (or sink down). This strikes me as the kind of move we've criticized a lot in the past, signing an average veteran past his prime to a cheap contract instead of going with the guys you have coming up. Sometimes it works like with Santana, but usually you get more of a Joey Gallo result. I'm going to say the same thing I said last year. Play the "young" guys and see what you have for at least the first half of the season. To me that means a consistent lineup with Lewis at 3B, Mirnada at 1B, Larnach in LF, Wallner in RF, either Lee or Julien at 2B, Castro as a super utility playing 2B and LF (occasional CF, although I would play Keirsey there) and Martin as a RH OF in spot duty. That includes hitting Larnach, Miranda, and Wallner against LH pitching. Change this only if we can trade for a young, controllable RH bat for the OF or 1B. Don't sign a vet past his prime as a stopgap. You can augment at the trade deadline. Normally that sounds like a pipe dream for the Twins but with new ownership we might actually be able to take on salary and get that one or two guy jolt we need. The Twins aren't one stopgap average vet away from contention. This team only contends if the younger core continues to improve and performs. I think that's a good bet but it is much more of a bet than a certainty. You can see the division improving; we need to find out what we have and the best (and only) way to do that is to invest playing time with the younger core. We are going to fall behind if we don't.

Agreed. Is he worth SWR or Festa and a non-pitching prospect in the 10-20 range? Sure. Is he worth Miller, Woo, Duran, Ober or Ryan? Not even close. Boston hasn't been able to trade Casas because they are asking for too much in return.

Interesting, but PECOTA tends to be late to the party as teams improve. I think Detroit will win more than the predicted 75 games, KC more than 81 and Cleveland more than 80. I think it will take 90+ wins to win the division and that all 4 teams have a shot at that number. I see those 3 plus the Twins all between 81 and 92 wins, with the Twins finishing at around 88-90 wins, finishing second in the division, and making the playoffs as a Wild Card. Who finishes first? I say Detroit now that they signed Flaherty to pair with Skubal, who is an absolute beast and one of the few ace starters out there. Detroit wins 90-92, Twins 88-90, KC 85, Cleveland 82, White Sox 65.

This is an issue that I've wondered about and can't find any real statistics to evaluate. Your information is helpful, although a little anecdotal, but a good way to think about OPS by position. Obviously you can hide a low OPS plyer who is extraordinary on the defensive side if you have a high OPS player at an unusual position. like SS or C. I think the analytics show that while Vasquez is an above average to good defender, his bat simply is far below average even for a catcher. I don't see Vasquez as that extraordinary defensive player whose glove makes up for his bat. Having said that, I agree that none of the backup options are ready for 40-50% MLB use. I just don't see that as preventing us from trading Vasquez for value since he is replaceable by a veteran FA like McCann, Grandal or Diaz. All have about the same or better WAR as Vasquez, the difference is that they get it on the hitting side more than the glove side. I have no idea if we can construct a deal with SD to get Cease with Vasquez and prospects. I do think that if we have that opportunity and the prospect cost is reasonable, we shouldn't let our lack of depth behind Vasquez stand in the way of a deal when there are veteran options available as free agents.

Looks like many of us are willing to give up a high end prospect with Vasquez, Paddack, and cash for Cease., but we disagree on how high end we're willing to go. I think if the Pads would include a young, cost controlled effective so far LH reliever with upside like Jacob or Morejon, I'd be willing to include any prospect except Jenkins, Emma, and Festa, or 2 from the list that doesn't include those 3, Matthews, Raya, or Keaschall.

I could see trading Vasquez, Paddack, and a good pitching or hitting prospect along with cash for Cease and a LH reliever like Jacob or Morejon. The relievers are younger and with more control. We get the younger reliever and a year of Cease, they get a catcher and Paddack for this year and a starting pitcher with upside. Twins eat half to 2/3 of the Vasquez salary so they dump $10.5-$12.5m and pick up $13.5-$15m. I wouldn't include Festa, Matthews or SWR, but Morris, Lewis, and Raya would all be potentially available. Would be willing to part with a hitter instead, not in addition, if that's what the Pads want since most of their good prospects are pitchers. The hitter couldn't be Jenkins, Emma, or Keaschall but anyone else is available, including Martin, Keirsey, and Helman. Also would be willing to consider more than 1 prospect if they are farther down the list in quality. Would love the prospect to be Varland but I don't think he has that kind of value unless combined with someone else.

Agreed, with a little more emphasis on on field performance impacting everything else in the short term. This year's team is the "Falvey" team - most of the players are ones his regime drafted or got in trades and he owns the minor league players. The payroll restrictions hurt but not enough to prevent this regime from fielding a competitive team in a weaker division. If they are not competitive in the first half and new ownership takes over by mid-season, I would expect to see at least a managerial change and a full house cleaning next off season. The bigger long term issues are the financial resources new ownership is willing to invest, how to broadcast the team, and how to rebuild enthusiasm in the fan base. To be blunt, this franchise has little chance for long term success without ownership investment beyond what a prudent businessman only interested in profit would make. The market is too small and the local economy isn't dynamic enough to compete with the big boys if the team is simply run like a business. To make this work, an owner needs to see the team as a hobby and, even more importantly, needs to get 2.5 - 3 million butts in the seats over the course of the year. I agree that this is a critical year in the franchise's history. The change in ownership gives us a fighting chance that we now don't have.

This payroll debate is always been confusing to me for the coming season. Based on the reporting I've seen, it appears that the Twins are not going to add to their payroll but they are not under a mandate to cut their payroll. It looks like they are simply going to run things back as they were last year, hope for better injury luck, and hope that guys like Lewis, Larnach, Wallner, Mirnada, Festa, and SVR take steps forward so they can go from 82 to 90 wins. Add to that the team is for sale so there is no incentive to spend money or make big changes before a new owner steps in (hopefully soon). Is it a reasonable plan? Maybe, depending on what you think about the chances for improvement from the younger players in the lineup and the rotation. Is it a boring plan? You betcha. My real point here is the only reason to trade guys like Paddack, Castro, and Vasquez is to free up payroll to sign free agents. The problem is that even trading one of the three doesn't generate more than $5 million to $10 million. Is there someone out there that could meaningfully move the needle at that price point? I don't know of anybody but maybe some of you guys do – a relief pitcher maybe? Bottom line, is the off-season plan is pretty clear. We're running back the team from last year without Santana or Kepler and hoping for better results by younger players improving and better injury luck. Doesn't really make for a fascinating off-season.

I'm right with you. It all depends on what the team thinks about Festa and Matthews. Personally, to me it's all about Festa. Matthews should go back to AAA. He may be ready by mid-season, it may be next year but he is no higher than the #7 starter on the current roster. Festa doesn't really have anything left to prove at the AAA level and I would like him to get 20-25 starts or more at the MLB level in 2025. Also, Paddack is worth more than a salary dump. He's worth a 15-20 rated prospect from a solid system plus a flyer. Given that pitching is always more important and more expensive than hitting, particularly starting pitching, Paddack is worth more than dumping his salary to sign an aging 1B. Before you say the payroll has to be reduced, remember that it doesn't have to be reduced NOW, it only has to be reduced by Opening Day. I think it's all timing. Go to ST with the starters we have. IF they are all healthy we can make a trade then to a team looking for SP. We will probably get a better return then. However, if one of our top 4 starters is injured having Paddack will be critical in the early going. FWIW, I don't anything is going to happen pending potential sale talks. There's no reason to reduce the pool of buyers by either adding payroll or stripping the team until you know the likely buyer and what that buyer wants to do. I'm still hoping that a random billionaire who wants in to pros sports will buy the team and try to buy a championship.

I agree here. Keirsey doesn't have to be the 4th OF - that should be a RH hitter who plays in the corners platooning with Larnach. Keirsey is the 5th OF, backs up Buxton in CF and fills in the corners as needed for injury or rest. I see him playing 2 days a week in CF, with Buxton out there 4 days a week and at DH a day a week. Given Keirsey has options and the state of the payroll, he's the logical choice for that role. The Twins then can and should look at a Grichuk, Canha, and similar guys as the 4th OF. Martin belongs in AAA playing on the OF every day as an injury back up trying to prove he can hold down a defensive position and working on his offensive game.

In contrast to earlier comments, I think the Twins organization drafts well and has done a very good job with player development at the minor league level leading to MLB ready players. Just looking at the current roster you see a robust group of players developed in the system from Duran, Jax, Ober, and Sands on the pitching side with more on the way (Festa, Matthews, etc.) to Lewis, Miranda, Wallner, Larnach, and Jeffers, in the field, with Lee and hopefully Julien and others on the way. Not all of these guys are or will be stars but they are or soon should be quality MLB level players who deserve to be on the roster of a winning team. We can argue about how they use these players once they get to the MLB level with the excessive platooning and emphasis on positional versatility over excellence at one position, but those are not development issues. They're how you use the guys once they get there issues. To me, the bigger issue is the penchant for signing replacement level veterans to fill out the roster and the multiple swings and misses there in 2024. That's the weak spot in my opinion. Going into 2025 I would rather see them take a shot with "younger" guys in the org rather than sign placeholder vets to fill out the roster. Only sign free agents if they have an MLB track record of being better than average. Keirsey and Morgan as the 4th and 5th OFs (along with Castro), not another Margot type. If we can't re-sign Santana (or think he's done), go with Miranda and/or Julien at 1B, don't sign a retread. Only upgrade to Walker or someone like that, don't sign Ty France or even Anthony Rizzo. Either get higher end free agents, trade for good younger players, or lean into the organization. Don't fill the team with mediocre veteran guys. If that means taking some lumps in the first half of 2025, so be it. We'll be better for it in the long run.