LA Vikes Fan

I'm in favor of keeping Polanco but I don't think "gaping hole" is a fair description of Julien's present defense and particularly not of his potential future defense. He started out as pretty far below average defensively, worked very hard on his defense, and I think he improved to basically average at second base by the end of the year. Given his purported work ethic, I suspect he will work very hard in his defense in the off-season. I don't see any reason that he can't improve his defense to be above average in the near future. I think sometimes we make judgments on people's abilities at a relatively early stage in their career when there are many opportunities for improvement. Julien's defense is one of those areas. I think his defense will improve and be better next year. Now, his bat may regress as is the case for Wallner, Jeffers, Castro, Larnach, and Lewis, or it may improve for some or all of them with decreased strikeout rates. I think we need to keep Polanco because we know what is, he can play basically average defense at least 2B or 3B (I suspect he could play 1B as well), and he is one of our better clutch hitters/RBI guys. I think we should keep him although I am open to trading him if we can put together a package for a #2 types starter to replace Sonny Gray. I don't think that's possible without really sacrificing good prospects, which I am not in favor of doing at this stage of this teams build, so I'd like to keep Polanco.

I don't think we actually need much to win 90 plus games next year AND to be set up for a strong post season run. Look at what we accomplished this year. We basically turned over 4 lineup positions and two rotation spots to guys who aren't even yet arbitration eligible - Jeffers, Lewis, Julien, Wallner, Ryan and Ober. Kirilloff would be another if he could just stay healthy but that doesn't look likely. This team is light years ahead of 2 years ago and the team and individual successes at AAA and AA suggest there may be more coming in the very near future. What do we need? Bullpen pieces, a RH hitting middle of the order bat, and #2 starter or a re-signing of Gray, and hmmm, bullpen pieces. Theilbar is starting to look closer to the end than the beginning. Maybe Funderburk is his replacement but we need another solid to good LH reliever. We need a "second closer" to take some of Duran's load. Jax and Pagan are NOT that guy and Stewart is an injury crapshoot every year. Those 3 can be a great combo for innings 6-8 though. We need to hope that the young guys continue to progress and don't regress. But that's it. Usually we go into the season hoping that a #1 starter, 2 middle of the order bats, and a bullpen will "emerge" from a list of unproven players, castoffs and "unpolished gems" we sign as cheap free agents, or improvement from averageish players. We don't need that any more. We have 90% f a contending team now and just need a little around the edges. I like this team. We could face plant, but I think it's more likely that we stay the same or get better next year. Great place to be. We'll need to get our September and October sports excitement some where because, well, the Vikings? That team is going to stink for a while.

Excellent piece. Thank you.

Solano is at 1B with Julien the DH. Buxton not in the lineup, nor would I expect him to be IF there is a game 5. He'll be a bench bat.

Understand the thinking, but I don't like moving Polanco back or moving Kepler. up. Polanco has been hitting the ball hard; Kepler has not. Wallner, Jeffers and Kirilloff also are not yet hitting in the playoffs. Wallner especially looks bad - they've found the high inside fastball is a pitch he seems to always swing at but can't hit. I think you stay with something close to what got us here - Julien, Polanco, Lewis, Correa, Kepler, Jeffers, Kirilloff, Taylor, Wallner. Switch Correa and Kepler so Correa has more RBI opportunities and move Wallner to the 9 hole to split up he and Kirilloff. If they're going to play Vasquez - gotta believe he will start one of the next 2 games - he hits 9, Kepler and Correa switch, and everyone 6-9 moves up one.

Now that we've won, time to start thinking about how we line up the starters for the ALDS. Games 1 and 2 are Saturday and Sunday in Houston, 3 and 4 are Tuesday and Wednesday in MN, and game 5 Friday in Houston. Lopez is able to go Sunday on 4 days rest, Gray not until Tuesday. Ryan would be next man up but hasn't pitched well lately and got bombed when he started in Houston on May 30. I think Ober is a better bet on the road, so is Maeda. Here's what I would do: Saturday - Ober Sunday - Lopez Tuesday - Gray Wednesday - Ryan/Maeda Friday Lopez Ober joins roster instead of Paddack or Funderburk (I say drop Paddack for Ober). Gives you Lopez twice, Gray in a possible elimination game, and gives us a better chance on Saturday with Ober instead of Ryan. Ryan pitches at home where he's much better. Thoughts?

So now that we've won, what's the starter order for the ALDS?

I understand the angst on the Buxton contract but let's not forget it's "only" $14.2875m a year. That's not a huge amount of money for player of his caliber even with the injury risk. I actually think that contract is a good deal for both sides with a fairly reasonable guarantee if for a guy of his talent level, with him having the chance to make more if you really performs. That kind of contract is basically number 3 or 4 starter money and he is potentially much more than that. I think it was a good risk at the time and is a good risk now, even if he winds up having to move to LF or 1B to protect his legs, or is really a full-time DH.

Houston just beat Arizona. With the Mariners losing, I think that means we open up with the Astros.

There's basically 5 guys for 2 spots. I guess the real choice is do you take Paddack and Funderburk or one of those two and either roster Buxton as a bench bat/DH, roster Luplow as a RH pinch hitter/starter against LH pitching, or keep Stevenson on the roster for defense and base running. It's a tough choice. I think it really depends on 2 things. Can Lewis recover quickly enough to be the playoff 3B or will he need to DH? If he's the playoff 3B I tend to say let's keep the extra roster spot for a bat like Buxton or Luplow, or for Stevenson's speed and flexibility. If he needs to DH, Buxton stays home for sure. Second, Is Paddack really ready to pitch in meaningful game situations? We know he can light up the radar gun but last night showed that he has to also hit spots. He did one inning, he didn't in the second inning. No reason to roster him if you have to afraid of when to pitch him. I think you roster Funderburk regardless to give you the second lefty. If Lewis can go in the field, roster Buxton if he's healthy. If not roster Paddack, Luplow or Stevenson. If Lewis needs to DH, the more likely result, roster Paddack if he has two better appearances than last night before the season ends. If not, roster Stevenson. I think his combo of defense and speed is more important than Luplow's ability to be a decent bat against LH pitching,

Too soon for the long term. I agree with you for this year. He didn't hit in AAA (SSS) so it's hard to see why we would activate him for the playoffs if he can't play in the field. And he can't. Have to keep the DH spot open for Lewis in the first round. I hate to say it, but I wouldn't be surprised if Buxton is left off of the post season roster for at least the first round and maybe even more, IF there is more.

Makes sense to DFA Floro. He wasn't going to make the team for the playoffs and his contract is up at the end of the year. Why save him for 6 meaningless games? I think this is it. No reason to rush Alcala back; he won't be on a post season roster either. Post season bull pen is Duran, Thielbar, Jax, Pagan, Stewart, Paddack, Maeda, Varland. Maybe add one of Funderburk, Keuchel or Ober, most likely Funderburk (my choice)or Keuchel. I don't see Ober in the BP for the first round and Ryan is starter #3. Still gives us only 11 or 12 pitchers so we can take 14 or 15 bats.

Is the current FO perfect? Far from it. Still, you have to give them credit for seizing on the opportunity presented this year to turn over the roster while remaining competitive and winning the division in a down year. Look at all of the new(ish) players over the last 2-3 years on the 26 man roster- Lopez, Gray, Lewis, Kirilloff, Julien, Wallner, Castro, Taylor, Funderburk (finally), Ryan, Ober.... They have turned over half of the roster in the last 2 years and won the division in year 2. Yes, the division is very weak. That created an opportunity to continue the rebuild and still have a real shot at the playoffs. The FO seized that opportunity. That's not luck. That's good management. Recognizing opportunities and making moves to take advantage of them is exactly what you want good management to do. I really don't understand why there are some here who just hate the FO and won't give them any credit for this year's partial success. Note the use of the word "partial". I agree that "real success" means more than just winning a weak division. Real success means wining at least one playoff series AND being set up to both make the playoffs and make some noise in the playoffs for the next 3-5 years. Are we there? Hard to say. We'll know more on the first criterion in a couple of weeks, the second in a couple of years. Injuries, regression, dumb trades, good trades, all could make a real difference. One thing I think we can say is that the roster turnover the last couple of years makes it more likely that we could have a good run of success for the next 2-3 years, something we could not say under previous management. I don't know about you guys but I'm actually pretty excited about this team. I think they have a chance to win a playoff game or two or even the first series if they can somehow avoid Houston. I also think this team could be a strong contender for the next 3-5 years if things break right. Y'all can complain about about the new guys in the FO. I'm going to watch the games and enjoy the ride.

I'm with Bigfork. The Astros are the team I least want to face in the first round of the playoffs of the likely 4. I think the Rangers, Mariners, and Blue Jays are all better matchups for us in that order. Still, wouldn't mind facing Houston in the second round. I'll take anybody in the second round. Just happy to be there.

Really interesting. Matches the eye test - Polanco has gone from a line drive, contact, doubles hitter to a more fly ball power hitter who sings and misses more. Also, kind of explains why he has so much more trouble against a high velocity guy like Greene yesterday but is much better and more dangerous against more "normal" 90-96 mph fastballs. I'd really be interested in whether there are similar changes in Kepler's profile. He's changed things you can see like being much better at going the opposite way. I'd be really interested if there was any data on the changes he's made to go from borderline unplayable in May and June to borderline All Star status in July and August. Both guys needed to change their approach to stay relevant and productive and both did. There's a lesson in there for us as more than casual fans. Sometimes you do have to see if there's changes in the process and then trust the process, or at least give it a chance to work.

I think this tells you less about Luplow v. Stevenson and more about whether they think Buxton is an available CF option this year. The reason to keep Stevenson is that he can play an above average CF. Luplow cannot. Stevenson can be put in for defensive purposes after Rocco engages in one of his all pinch hitting managerial innings and winds up without the services of Castro or Taylor, or Castro has to go in and play 2B or 3B. Stevenson is then available to play CF at a pretty good level for the last couple of innings. Luplow is more one-dimensional and doesn't give us that same level of defensive flexibility. Oh, and he can steal a base.

I have to admit I'm in the fearful Minnesota sports camp of not believing we've "won" anything until it actually happens. Once we clinch, I'm right there with you - give Julien, Kirilloff, and Wallner all the ABs they can handle against LH pitching as long as we can find enough ABs for Solano and Famer to keep them on rhythm for the playoffs. I would shut down Correa once we clinch and play Farmer every day at SS so Correa can refresh, give Lewis a day off here or there with Polanco at 3B, etc. The Angels are starting 3 LHs this coming weekend and all 3 of them are average or better - Anderson, Detmers and Sandoval. I hope we can reduce the magic number to 2 or 3 against Concy and then the young LH hitters can hit against those 3 guys.

Guys, it is waaaaay too early to reach any meaningful conclusions about how Julien will hit against LH pitching over his career. He's had the princely sum of 43 Abs against LH pitching in the Bigs. The kid is all of 24 years old. Nor is now the time to "give him a chance" against LH pitching given that his slash line in those 43 ABs is .209/.209/.233 (.442). This team should be in the playoffs with a chance to win a series. Rocco is absolutely correct to play for TODAY. That means swapping out Julien for Solano (or Farmer) when a LH pitcher comes in to improve our chances of winning today. The Vazquez pinch hitting spot was an anomaly because Correa needed a full day off. That won't happen in the playoffs. Spring training and the early regular season next year is the time to work on Julien's hitting against LH pitching and, for that matter, the same is true for Kirilloff and Wallner too. They do need experience against major league lefties in game situations; but they don't need it in September or October, 2023. Early 2024 is just as good if not better - less pressure and facing better pitching before injuries and time take their toll on opposing staffs. Solano is 35 - will he be back next year at age 36 and, if he is, will he be able to repeat the career year he's having in 2023? Gallo will be gone if there is a God. Polanco will be on his last year or two and will be on the IL once or twice in 2024. All of these guys will get a chance against LH pitching next year. It just won't be now. Once they get the next 200 plus ABs against LH pitching over 2024 and 2025 we can get a better handle on whether they can improve against good LH pitching (I think Wallner already is). You're right, we need to give them that opportunity. We just don't need to give it to them now while we're trying to win a division and make some noise in the playoffs.

This is all premature. Hopefully we will clinch the division with at least 7-10 games out play. Thereafter, give Julien ABs against LH pitching, also in any blowouts . Repeat this in spring training and then at the start of 2024. In other words, don't write him off against LH pitching yet but don't give him ABs against LH pitching in meaningful situations or in the playoffs. Frankly, same for Wallner and Kirilloff.

I don't think anyone is going to trade an "elite" pitching prospect for Larnach. That's why my view is that you test the market to see if there's someone that you think has value that can be unlocked. Two good examples are the Ryan trade and the trade of Spencer Steer. Neither was considered an elite prospect but the Twins and Reds saw something and now both appear to above average MLB players. Target that kind of player at the AA or A level on a poor team who is rebuilding their offense. Rooker was never going to be a starter on a good team. His only chance was to go to a bad team and get an opportunity. The jury is still out on him but he might be a decent to good MLB hitter. I see Larnach in the same way. He could be a good MLB hitter but only if he gets a full year of playing very day in the Bigs. The Twins are in a contention window and can only do that with either Larnach or Wallner. We've chosen Wallner. Perhaps the As, Royals, Rockies, etc. see Larnach's potential the same way and would be willing to gamble a 20-30 prospect in the low minors to get a guy who will be controllable for a few years and isn't even arb eligible so he'll be cheap for those few years. The Twins get a development prospect that may pan out but may not. That's the kind of trade I'm advocating. If we can't get that, keep him for depth.

I understand the logic behind this, but have one caveat. I think we need to take in account the very real possibility that one of the current young IFs is going to move to the OF to get everyone into the lineup, especially if Polanco is retained. I think there is at least a 75% chance that Polanco's option is exercised given his production and the cost, and the way the Twins just seem to score more runs when he's in the lineup. Add in Kirilloff, Julien, Correa, Lewis, Farmer, Solano, and next year's IF is full or even 1 oversold. And that's assuming Castro and Gordon are both full time OFs or Gordon is possibly gone In 2024 you have to add Miranda back into the IF mix and possibly Lee or Severino by mid-season. That's quite a log jam of players, 8 of whom have had at least some MLB success. I expect that one of them will become a LF option in 2024, probably either Kirilloff or Lewis. It's also possible that Lewis may move to CF. Now the OF is really oversold. My view is trade from depth to fill weakness or to get long term prospects. I wouldn't trade Larnach just to trade him, but I would trade him for longer term pitching options like guys in A or AA with upside. I also might trade him for a stuck or stalled talented AA or AAA guy who pitches or catches, but that's less likely. If that's not available, keep him for depth. But don't hesitate to pull the trigger if a decent trade is available.

I think the move with Larnach is to trade him to a non-contending/rebuilding team like Pittsburg, Oakland, Washington, Colorado, etc. That's where he will have a value - a team that will live with an up and down year in the hope that another 500-600 ABs will help him smooth out the rough edges and become a quality hitter on a pre-arbitration contract in his prime. We need to do it now because he's 27 and his "future value" is already starting to wane. I think Kepler and Polanco's options are both exercised, as they should be given their performance, age, and the cost. I just don't see Larnach having a spot over Kepler, Buxton (assuming he comes back), Wallner, Castro, Taylor (he'll be re-signed), or even Gordon. Also, Lewis may need to move to LF to open a spot for Lee or Miranda (remember him? He was good in 2022). Trade Larnach this off season while he has value and give the guy a chance to be on a team that will play him through his development, What could we get? Not a lot, but I like the Tampa approach. Let's find a team with a couple of developing players at the AA level or lower that we think could be something in 2-3 years or a AAA/AA pitcher that seems to have talent but just can't seem to put it together. In other words, a risk with some upside. I don't think Larnach will get us an established MLB reliever. That we have to develop or buy on the FA market (like that's going to happen). Bottom line, trade him to a bad team for either prospects with a more distant horizon or for another guy that's blocked or stalled and see if you can do something with the return,

Interestingly enough, Pagan and Taylor are both worth 0.9 WAR with very similar stats this season. Taylor - 6-4, 3.00 ERA. 1.167 WHIP., 1 save, first year of a 3 year, $33m deal with SF, no longer with SD, left as a free agent. Pagan - 5-2, 3.38 ERA, 0.987 WHIP, 0 saves, 1 year $3.5m deal, free agent 2024. Rooker also no longer with San Diego, Medina in FCL (i.e. lottery ticket). One could convincingly argue that the Twins lost the trade in 2022 but are the big winners in 2023 since Pagan is here and performing, while the Twins weren't going to pay Rogers $33m over 3 years so he would be gone. With Paddack coming back, could be a very good trade for 2024 for the Twins. Just goes to show you that one shouldn't evaluate a trade (or a draft pick) for at least a year or so.

Agree with this except for Paddack. Lopez, Gray, and Ryan are the first 3. Ober is #4, may not be on the playoff roster for the first round, #4 starter if we get to a second round. Maeda is a bullpen guy from round 1 forward. If he is on playoff roster in round 1 it's at the expense of Winder. Paddack would be a nice addition to the bullpen IF he can pitch a few innings down the stretch in 1 or 2 inning spurts and show he can help in relief. fg he can, probably replaces Varland rather than Funderburk or Kuechel. Louie still has a home run problem and you just can't have a guy like that in the late inning of a playoff game. Maeda can be the playoff long man, has playoff experience. and is better than Varland. We don't really need Varland in the playoffs unless he shows he can be dominating in 1 or 2 inning stretches. He ahs to show he can avoid giving up HRs and his last appearance looked way too much like the 3-5 appearances earlier this season that got him sent down to AAA.

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