LA Vikes Fan

I think you've identified the obvious trade candidates here - Paddack and Castro. Vasquez isn't worth his salary, and we have no backup catcher if we trade him away. They aren't going to trade young pitching. I could see another team taking a chance on Paddock at $7.5m, particularly since the price is likely to be 1 or 2 solid but not prime Minor League players at least a year or two away. He is replaceable by combination of Festa and/or Mathews, most likely Festa. I actually still hold out hope that they are going to talk to Miami about trading for Jesus Luzardo who is still in the arbitration phase. The price will likely be high in terms of prospects, maybe Miranda plus Keaschall. My guess is that they are at least thinking about if not already working on some kind of deals involving Paddack going and/or Luzardo or someone like him coming.. Castro is a tougher call. He is valuable, but really only because of his versatility. He is a very average bat, doesn't have a high OPS because he strikes out too much and walks too little, and his defense is more in the range of solid then very good or elite at any position. He can be replaced at second base by Lee, Miranda, Julian, Keaschall or a combination thereof. He is not a true backup CF and our starting corner OFs next year are likely to be Wallner, Larnach, plus either Martin or a very cheap FA. I would not be surprised at all to see the Twins trade him, again for one or two solid prospects who are at least a year or two away from appearing at the MLB level. There isn't much else they can do other than that to bring down payroll and that probably doesn't significantly improve the team. I do expect a pretty quiet off-season. John may only be talking payroll, but I think his napkin properly identifies next year's Opening Day roster except I think Dobnak is a starter in AAA again with Alcala in the bullpen in his place, and the TBD on the bench is Keirsey as a backup CF. If we trade either Paddack or Castro, the replacement will be a guy like Festa or Matthews on the pitching staff for Paddack, and Payton Eeles or Keaschall in an IF utility/part-time 2B role for Castro. I think were looking at a pretty lukewarm stove indeed this winter.

I agree that the players haven't "choked" because that assumes current performance is substantially below expected performance. I'm not sure that's true. I think Correa, Buxton, Castro and Jeffers are going to finish right where their talent and health is in terms of performance and games played. I think it's wistful thinking to expect more from them. Same for the starting pitching staff with the exception of Ryan's injury. We've gotten about will be to have expected to get and more in Ober's case. The bullpen has performed below reasonable expectations but not by much given the talent level there, and anyone expecting Brock Stewart to give us more than 30 innings this year simply ignored his past body of work. This year's team was always going to be between 80 and 92 wins depending entirely on the play of the young guys coming into their own - Lewis, Larnach, Wallner, Miranda, and Julien (with hope for Lee), plus Varland, SWR and the rest of young pitching. That's the group that was going to make or break this season and they just haven't performed well enough to make us a playoff team in a competitive division. Wallner has looked great at times, and unplayable at times like early in the season and the last couple of weeks. Lewis has not been what we hoped he would be, not even close. Miranda has been past streaky at best and overall, pretty average, Julien is way below average, and Lee is overmatched at this stage. Larnach has developed into what he is – a solid left-handed hitting platoon outfielder. He is unlikely to ever be much more. Varland has been a terrible starter but might have potential to be a very good reliever. SWR and the rest of the young pitching has actually been better than reasonably could be expected but they been overstretched because of Ryan's injury and a lack of veteran depth so the wheels have come off. You are what your record since you are. That's absolutely true of this year's Twins - a slightly better than average team with potential that may or may not ever realized. This isn't a competitive playoff team that choked. This is who they are, an about 84-win team. This team will rise and fall for the next few years on the backs of those young players development. Let's all be prepared for a very rough ride. They may not be good enough.

I don't think the team has quit or that Rocco has lost the clubhouse - I think the Twins just don't have a lot of talent capable of carrying the team. This is the time of the season where someone(s) steps up, goes on a hot streak, and carries the lineup. That just isn't happening. I don't see who that would be. I hope I'm wrong.

C'mon guys, I think we all know why the Twins are in a tailspin they can't get out of - we're not that good as a team. We know that the pitching is very top heavy without much depth, and I think the same is true on offense The best 2 position players are Correa and Buxton. A lot of their value is on defense. Both are having good years at the plate but neither is have a kind of year where they should hit 3 or 4 and be counted on to consistently produce. That's not who they are. Correa is a #2 hitter, and Buxton should hit #6, maybe #5. Who is supposed to be the meat of the order that will carry us on a daily basis then? Lewis, he of 513 career MLB ABs, Wallner with 477 ABs and a career 40.9% (!) strikeout percentage, Larnach with 977 ABs and a lifetime .230 avg/.723 OPS, and Miranda with 980 ABs and .268 lifetime avg/.734 lifetime OPS? Is it the 38 year old defensive specialist Santana, or maybe the Tiger castoff Castro for whom we're celebrating a .250/.337/.394/.731 "breakout" season? Hopefully we aren't counting on Kepler, he of the lifetime .747 OPS/.232 avg, with the former inflated by his big 2019 (5 years ago) or Jeffers, who's a good hitter for a catcher, but only a slightly above average hitter for any other position. Neither of those last 4 guys hit above 6 or 7 on a contending team. Santana has hit 3 or 4 the last week and we wonder why we can't score any runs? Really? My point here is not to run guys down. My point is that this team has punched above it's weight for most of the season but we probably should have seen this coming. The Twins have about 2/3 to 3/4 of a contending team. We're missing real #3 and #4 hitters - think Jose Ramirez/Bo Naylor light at least - a real #2 starter assuming we think Lopez is a #1, not a #2, and a least 2 late inning relievers, one of whom needs to be left handed. We really have 1, maybe 2 All Star caliber players in Correa and Lopez, and a group of solid to pretty good complimentary players. Complimentary players are great when they have someone to complement. We don't. This has been a fun year but it's pretty much coming to an end. I don't think the Twins will limp into the playoffs, and they go nowhere if they do. They might be better next year if all of the young guys who have had so many MLB ABs or pitched so many MLB innings improve with the experience. I think there's a pretty good chance that at least SWR, Lewis, Wallner, and Miranda will be better next year. Looking back at everything, this was an 85 ish win team all along. Oh well, at least the Vikings are 2-0 (on their way to 9-8).

Great article. While I would love to see this team be more versatile and execute small ball better, they just don't seem to have the guys to do that. There really isn't anybody on the roster that "handles the bat well" as we used to say by hitting behind the runner, bunting well, singles to the opposite field, etc., except maybe Correa. Maybe in time some of the younger guys will get more versatile offensively but it's hard to see Wallner, Lewis, Larnach or Jeffers doing that in the next 10 days. They just haven't developed that skill. I don't think it's a coaching issue, I think it's a "who they are as a player at this stage of their careers" issue. The one versatile bat we had was Martin but he had zero power and is now in St. Paul. This team rises and falls on the home run. The poster is right, we don't have the pitching to grind out 3-2 or 2-1 games against good competition. The Cleveland series was a great example of that deficiency. Any hope of a decent last 9 games comes down to power production from guys like Buxton, Wallner, Lewis, Jeffers, and Correa. I hate to be a downer but that last playoff spot is Detroit's unless they hit a slump. This Twins team just isn't good enough to seize the spot themselves.

Agreed. I think this is a long-term short-term issue. For 2025, having Santana back makes defensive sense and may make offenses sense for one more year although it's pretty hard to say. His hitting is going to fall off the table soon, we just don't know when. For 2026, there is little to no likelihood that Santana will be a realistic option on any sort of contending team at age 40. So to me Santana might help us next year but won't after that. I just don't think it makes sense to give him another year because that limits playing time for others who we have to go with in the longer term. I think the better longer-term play is to play Miranda and Julien at 1B next year, with Lewis the primary 3B backed up by Castro/Lee, Correa at SS, and Castro/Lee playing 2B. We will need another IF so Kirilloff, Helman or a healthy Keaschall may make sense. Any money for FAs, if there will be any given the raises due Lopez, etc., has to go to pitching. 6 IFs in 2025 are Correa, Lewis, Miranda, Castro, Lee, and Helman/Keaschall/Kirilloff/journeyman vet. 5 OFs are Buxton, Wallner, Larnach, plus 2 of Martin, Keirsey, Emma, and Kirilloff. 2Cs are Jeffers and Vasquez.

It pains me out say this as someone who has advocated for more playing time for some of our young players, but RiverBrian may be correct. I think we simply may have overestimated the talent of these young guys or at least where they are in terms of development. It's becoming more and more obvious that Lewis and Wallner may have high upsides but are a long way from being able to consistently provide value, particularly Lewis. Larnach looks like he might be a solid platoon outfielder, but doesn't look like he will ever be much more than that. Castro had a nice run early in the season but he is what he is, a utility player will give you something like a .240 to .250 average, decent but not elite defense in three or four positions, occasional power, some speed, and a roughly .725 OPS. In other words, a nice 10th man but not a starter on a contending team. Miranda's future is becoming muddier by the day with a range from solid everyday player to benchwarmer, but not a middle of the order bat. I would tend to give the young pitching a bit of a pass because they're getting more run than expected, but it's hard to see any of them other than SWR providing value next year and only Alcala from the group of young relievers looking like he might have any sort of short term impact. In other words, this "emerging core" I thought we might have is looking less and less like the basis for contending team. After watching the last month (cue recency bias) and thinking about the fact that this team is likely to use these young guys next year and not pick up any more veteran talent, I see the Twins potentially taking a pretty significant step back next year and falling behind Cleveland, Kansas City, and Detroit. It's amazing what six weeks can do to one's outlook.

Please correct me if I’m wrong, but can’t someone be added to the 40 man for playoff purposes as an injury replacement? I thought I read somewhere that’s actually fairly common. So let’s say Matthews goes on the injured list tomorrow because of his blister problem, effectively ending his season. Wouldn’t that allow them to both put Irwin on the 40 and make him eligible for the playoffs?

Wallner has really helped carry this team offensively in the second half of the year. I agree with a previous poster in that I can easily see him being a .250 – .270, 30+ HR guy next year with an OPS north of .850. Yes, he's nowhere near as good defensively as Kepler but is adequate out there and could over time become above average because of the arm strength. He's a good guy to have on your team and can be an anchor in the middle of the lineup ideally hitting in the 5 or 6 hole, and even in the 4 hole if we have to. I would love to see Lewis mature the way I think he can to hit 4 next year, with Wallner 5 and Miranda 6. The strikeouts are definitely a problem, which is why would hit him 5 instead of 4. Still, we can live with one guy in the order with that level of power who strikes out over 33% of the time. The big thing to keep in mind as we can deal with 1 guy who does that, not multiple guys.

I agree that he seems to throw more breaking pitches early than he used to. He used to throw gas, get ahead and then use the curve and splitter to put guys away. Maybe that's an attempt to put hitters off balance who come to the plate gearing up for a 1000 mph fastball. The problem is he misses with that curveball too often on the first pitch or two, gets behind, and gets hit. Look, I'm just a guy behind a computer but I would like to at least see him come up throwing gas early in the count and use the breaking pitches to get guys out rather than trying to use breaking pitches to set up the fastball.

Good to know. i haven't had a chance to watch the games. It would be great if he could even be a .700 OPS guy because it sure looks like he can field CF and he's the only one outside of Buxton who can.

As I read this on the transaction wire, Vasquez came back for Camargo, and Margot came back for Helman. The Twins have announced Buxton will be back for Martin although that isn't yet reflected on the wire. I think that really only leaves two questions - who goes when Correa is ready to come back and when will that be? Has to be either Lee or Keirsey down unless there's an injury. I'm guessing that Keirsey may stay so we have a true CF to back up Buxton. Buck isn't 100% and will probably only play 3-4 games a week in the field with another as a DH. So who goes when Correa is ready (hopefully next week)? Unless an injury makes that decision, it looks like it will be Lee. Having said that, a hot streak at the plate by either Lee or Keirsey could change that decision. Lee will play more, so the chance to stay is in his hands.

Keirsey stays, Martin goes. Interesting choice. Guess defense matters.

Agree with riverbrian. IF they makes the playoffs (a big IF), the only 2 set starters as in go 6 plus innings are Lopez and Ober. Everyone else is mix and match, all hands on deck, be ready when called upon.

As a thought exercise, I just went through our lineup for tonight to list everyone who has an OPS over .700 over the last 30 games. The list? Wallner, Kyle Farmer, Larnach, Santana (barely) and Miranda (barely). Martin was close. No one else was really very close. I then took asway anyone who didn't have an OPS over .700 the last 15 games and there went Santana and Mirnada. Neither is even close over the last 15. Martin was close over 30 and above .700 over the last 15. I looked at Lewis and Castro on the bench to see if they qualify. Nope, not anywhere near close. Lewis and Castro are the worst hitters on the team over the last month and that's saying a lot with Julien and Vasquez on the roster. Lee has been even wore, he just hasn't been up for a month. The point of all this is just to show how hard it must be to construct a lineup when you have 3, maybe 4 hitters who have been even MLB average or slightly better over the last month. How many times have we seen Lewis or Castro come up with runners on in scoring position and watched them strike out? This team just doesn't have enough MLB ready hitting to be competitive unless some of these guys turn it around. I have very little confidence of that happening. The ironic thing is that when yo look at the actual performance numbers tonight's decision to play Farmer at 3B instead of Lewis not only makes sense, it's the absolute right decision. Who would have guessed that? Maybe Rocco isn't completely asleep after all.

I would add that there are at least 2 players playing out of position most games - whoever is playing SS and whoever is playing CF. The proposed backups for those positions were busts defensively - Farmer lost his range and Margot may never have had the range. Lee and Castro are not MLB level shortstops; Castro and Martin are not MLB level in CF (too early to know on Keirsey). A big part of why the defense is poor is because those two positions are not well manned. The Twins problem is that with the injuries they now have about 2/3 of a team if everything clicks - 4-5 guys that can hit, 2.5-3 starters, leaky up the middle defense, and about half a bullpen. That's if the players you have actually perform. When some of those guys don't - like Lewis and Julien in the lineup, SWR recently in the rotation, Alcala and Duran in the bullpen - there's no one who has any chance of steeping up to cover. While I think there's a lot to criticize about Baldelli, it's hard to see how anyone could do much more with what this team has right now. We've just run out of MLB level players.

I have been a Baldelli supporter as manager, but he clearly has to take a large share of the responsibility for this late-season collapse. I hope I'm wrong, but I've stopped watching the games on MLB TV or participating in the game threads because I'm pretty convinced that the Twins are in a death spiral that will end with them winning 82 to 84 games and finishing outside the playoffs. The biggest reason for that is the injuries, particularly the injury to Joe Ryan and consequent need to start Festa and Matthews every fifth day, guys who are not ready to be major league starting pitchers. Still, the second biggest reason is just a lack of fundamental play and fire from the team itself. They are just playing bad baseball and that has to be laid at the feet of the manager and assistant coaches. Their job is to get the players to execute, and it just isn't happening. Their job is also to recognize when players are not contributing and frankly be bloodless and heartless in only playing guys who are executing. I've been a big fan of playing the young guys to get them experience, but the last two weeks of made me realize that playing Lewis and Lee every day is likely to doom the season. They just aren't making a contribution. Now, I'm not sure that Helman, Martin and Keirsey would be any better but we certainly need to give that a try. Miranda also needs to be playing every day because he's one of the few guys that is hitting at all. I just feel like this coaching staff has not made a good effort at trying to adjust the roster. I recognize that the options are limited with so many guys out, but you still have to recognize when things are not working and make changes. My prediction is that the Twins will fade out of the playoffs and Rocco will be back next year with basically the same philosophy. It works if you don't have injuries, it doesn't if you do. I think the last three years have shown us that.

Have to agree. Lee hasn't really shown that he can handle SS at an MLB level. He's also not really hitting. I'm not a big fan of Farmer but we may be seeing a Farmer/Castro platoon at SS for awhile. especially since Castro can't hit water if he fell out of a boat RH.

Castro had to get a day or two off. He's hitting under .200 for the last month, under .100 for the two weeks. I hope he's out for 2 of these 3 games. He's gassed. Lee hasn't looked great in the field, either. I am glad to see Wallner and Larnach get some run in the corners against LH pitching. I would like to see Helman get some ABS but it's more important for us to see if Wallner and Larnach can be every day players. Those 2 are the starting corner OFs in 2025, Helman maybe a 5th OF or utility guy.

It's sad to see Kepler go out this way but there is a silver lining. The most likely scenario for next year was Kepler gone with Wallner and Laranach in the corner OF spots most days, maybe platooning some with a RH bat to start against LH pitching. I expect that to be the result the rest of the way with Castro in the IF/Super UTL role, and Martin and Keirsey in CF. This allows Lewis to DH more and still stay in the lineup. I think that's what we're going to see in September with Correa, Buxton, Margot, and Kepler back in late September, if at all. All these injuries do give us a jump on next year and in a year where .500 ball the rest of the way is highly likely to get us into the playoffs. With all that said, it's very hard to see Kepler's career end this way. He was never a star but he was a steady contributor and a class act.

One look at Kepler's performance in the last 15 games should have told them he wasn't going to come back at even 80% after a couple of days off. He wasn't hitting at all, wasn't running the bases well, and even his defensive range was down. He was providing very little value to the team. He needs at least 10 days. I wouldn't be surprised if he's out for 3 weeks or so. I suspect that it will be at least September 16 to 20 before we see any of Buxton, Correa, Kepler, or Margot ready to play. It will likely be the playoffs before we see Correa, assuming that we are actually in the playoffs.

I agree that Thielbar has bounced back some, but only to pretty average and wildly inconsistent. He is not a guy that we would trust in a playoff game with a lead; he is more the guy that comes in when you're down three in the seventh. He's not going to help this bullpen much in critical situations.

Congratulations to Keirsey on getting this opportunity. A real opportunity may be right in front of him. Who is going to play CF now that Buxton's hip problem has reactivated and he is out for at least another week or two, perhaps longer? It looks like Margot won't be back anytime soon and can't play centerfield anyway.. The choices are Castro and Martin. Castro is hitting.154/.254/.308 (.562) over the last 30 games and even worse over the last 15 games if that's possible. Castro is completely gassed and needs at least a week where he only plays a couple of games. Martin is a little better at.284/.361/.365 (.726) over the last 30, but he has no power and has tailed off over the last 10 games or so. I'm hopeful and would love to see Rocco lean into youth and play a platoon of Keirsey and Martin in CF every day. I would put Willie C on the bench for at least a couple of days and then slowly work him back in, primarily at 2B with some time at SS. Brooks Lee has been an adventure in short and he's not hitting much either. Play Wallner and Larnach most every day with a little Helman mixed in as the corner outfielders and play Lewis, Santana, and Miranda as the 3B/1B/DH most every day. Our chances of winning the division are now pretty small, and the teams behind us playing just as poorly as we are so our chances of falling out of playoff position are getting smaller by the day. Besides, even if we make the playoffs with this lineup we are not going anywhere. Let's use this time to get a jump on next season and give these guys some experience. Many of us agitated for the removal of some of the vets so that the young guys can play. I know we were thinking about Margot and Farmer, not Buxton and Correa. Still, we should take advantage of this opportunity. This team is really going to have trouble scoring runs for a while with a lineup that every night is going to feature at least 3-4 players who have spent time in the minor leagues the season. Still, it's what we got and we gotta roll with it. Glue Farmer to the bench as an occasional pinch-hitter and late inning defensive replacement at 2B, platoon Keirsey and Martin in CF, and use this opportunity to get maximum ABs for Wallner, Larnach, Miranda, Julien, Keirsey, Martin, and Helman (in that order). Let's at least find out what we got for next year as we slowly but surely implode through September.

I think in both cases you're seeing players who are frustrated and mad at themselves for not being able to be there for the team in a critical situation.

I think this is looking more and more accurate. Varland simply doesn't appear to have the consistency or temperament to be a starter at this point in his career. More importantly, it doesn't look like that's changing or improving over time. Conversely, he looks outstanding in 1 or 2 inning appearances. Time to put him in the bullpen for the rest of the season. If we have another injury in the rotation, we are just going to have to go to spot starts or bullpen games once a turn. He can help the bullpen but he's killing the rotation.