LA Vikes Fan

I think the impact of the younger guys getting experience shouldn't be understated. Both Julien and Wallner had high SO rates last year. One would expect those rates to go down with experience. Wallner needs to make some adjustments since he was SO prone at the end of the year. Juline needs to learn where the MLB strike zone is bigger than the robot zone at AAA and he'll take fewer called strikes. I would expect both of them to shave 2-5% off of their SO ratees, possibly the same for Lewis and Kirilloff. That alone when added to the replacement of Taylor and Gallo with Santana and Margot should really help.

I don't agree with USAFChief on this one. I think the plan was to trade Polanco for a starter but they couldn't get a good one since Polanco is older and has an injury history. They pivoted to getting a reliever - Topa - and a good prospect with risk and upside in Gonzalez. I think Seattle also was looking to move DeSclafani's salary and the Twins were looking to add starter depth so the moved him to MN and threw in Bowen so the Twins would pay some of his salary.. To me, that's a salary dump that happened to fit the Twins' need for SP depth. The Twins wanted to trade Polanco for a young starter with upside but couldn't so they settled for a high upside prospect, a (sort of) established late inning reliever, and a lottery pick. Getting a possible back end starter was a nice add on but not critical to the trade.

Agreed. The trade was really Polanco for Topa and Gonzalez with DeSclafani thrown in essentially for almost free with others paying 2/3 of his salary. Bowen was the classic even it out lottery ticket guy. DeSclafani is gone after 2024 unless he reverts to 2021 form (and then he's likely someone else's FA pickup). The elbow injury sounds ominous but let's not pretend that he was a key part of the Polanco trade. I hate to see anyone get hurt but I wouldn't be unhappy at all if Varland got some real run in the rotation out of the gate. On another note, with the DeSclafani elbow issue and Varland's possible ascension, do we need another veteran "break glass in case of emergency" type starter to stash in AAA? I think we might. I'm not thrilled by SWR or Dobnack as the next guy in line in case of injury. How about Jake Odorizzi? I don't know, but I would think he's take a minor league deal with an opt out. Or maybe Michael Lorenzen on a one year deal if he'd take it with Varland back at AAA? I'd really think about Lorenzen. I know he's been injured but I would be interested to see if Odorizzi has anything left.

I agree. I also think it's very important for the Twins to make sure that Kirilloff gets 450-500 ABs this year and at least 75 games at 1B. This is the most unsettled position we have other than the #2 starter. Santana is at most a 1 year stop gap. We need to find out this year, not next year this year, whether we can whether we have a long term 1B in AK, or whether we need to work on Miranda or get a FA to cover the position going forward. We look pretty set most everywhere else to have a contending team for the next 5 years or so. We need to set this spot with who we have or get someone else for next season and beyond. We need to figure out by July if the right side of the IF is AK and Julien. If it's not, we need to pivot to Julien and Lee, Miranda and Julien, or some other combination that we can trot out there from 2025-28 (after which we lose control over Lewis, Ryan, and Ober). We're close. Let's finish the building job. 500 plus ABs this year for AK, Julien, Wallner, and Lewis and 400 plus for Jeffers, unless they completely bomb. 25-30 starts for Ryan and Ober. 20 plus starts for Varland and Paddack. 200-250 ABs for Martin, same for Miranda if we can find a spot. Find out if Larnach can hit MLB pitching or find a way to keep Kepler around for 2-3 more years. Get in the playoffs and win at least a series or two. Figure out who of this group is in your core going forward with Correa, Lopez, and Buxton, augment as necessary over the winter, and compete for a title in 2025 if we can't get there this year. Get to the ALDS or better this year if you can but be sure to be in a position to have a real shot at getting to the ALCS or better in 2025-2028 by establishing your core.

I think this is the best analysis despite all of the hysteria. I understand the issue of blocking prospects like Varland (good example, he may really be MLB ready), and Martin (hasn't shown yet but may be MLB ready by mid-season, I think needs more time in AAA). Yet I think the Twins are contenders and that's why a guy like Margot makes a lot more sense than Martin. With respect to the prospects, I think we have to recognize where the Twins are as a team. We supposedly are division favorites and I think contenders to go deep in the playoffs. Manuel Margot fits well as a 4th OF on that team. If, on the other hand your view is that the Twins might win the division since its fairly weak but are really a pretender in the playoffs, then Margot makes a lot less sense; it would make more sense to give those ABs to a guy that you wanted ready to go when we are really ready to contend like Martin. So, pick your contention window. If it's open this year, Margot is the right choice. If that window doesn't open until 2025 or 2026, play Martin. BTW, the thing that should tip the balance on the trade is the prospect swap. Doncon looks as good or better than Miller, but who knows? I think we do know that its at least a close call.

Unless you are tied to the defense as paramount, these stats tell me you have a good platoon. Ak has an .858 OPS against RH pitching, Santana a .727. Against LH pitching, Santana is .807, AK .482. Yes, Santana is much better in the field but you have to acknowledge the possibility that AK could improve in the field with time and reps at age 26, whereas Santana is likely to regress both at the plate and in the field at age 38. Looks to me like the plan is clear: Ak starts against RH starters, Santana against LH starters and they pinch hit for each other when the bullpen changes sides. Santana is the late inning defensive replacement. I think it works well for this year.

I agree. Trading Kirilloff makes sense as part of a package for Jesus Lazardo or somebody of that talent, age range, and potential. It would make no sense to trade him for another DeSclafini or similar back end veteran starter. And it would make even less sense to trade him for prospects to "open up " a spot for Brooks Lee, a guy with great potential but who hasn't even conquered AAA yet. I don't think Kirilloff is enough to get us a quality youngish starter with control and I don't think the FO will want to add a lot of talent in a package with him. I think he stays with the team and I think he is the primary 1B, with Santana getting at bats against left-handed starters, some DH time, and some late inning defensive replacement time. As I've said many times before, this is the year where you play Kirilloff, Julien, Lewis, and Wallner everyday, play Jeffers 60% of the time, pitch Ryan and Ober every fifth day, and get Varland at least 20 starts.. You need to see if those guys can be the core going forward. This is the year to find that out because the Tigers, Royals, and Guardians are getting better but still are a ways off. This is the year you can give away a few games to useful inexperience and still win the division. That may not be true again starting next year.

How about Robbie Grossman as the RH OF pickup? Can't play CF (or LF for that matter) but a 158 OPS+ last year against LH pitching, I would rather have about 6 guys other than him, but here's thought that he fits the Twins: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/

I fall in between Fatbat and Fire Dan Gladden. At this point, you cannot say with any assurance that this year's team is weaker or stronger than last year. Why? Because the two keys are (1) the health of 3 critical players who had down or missed years in 23 due to injuries - Correa, Buxton, and Paddack, and (2) the continued high performance of 4 guys who were either rookies or came out of nowhere last year - Lewis, Julien, Wallner and yes, Kepler. The only givens are that the starting rotation is weaker and the bullpen is stronger probably by about an equal amount. If the 3 guys listed coming back from injury perform closer to their historic expectations and everything else is the same - we are better this year. If those 3 are the same as last year, we are worse because there is less supporting depth at AAA - they're all in the bigs. If the 4 revelations from last year continue as they did or even improve, we are definitely better and could be a lot better. If the revelations all hit sophomore slumps while Kepler returns to 2021-22, we are definitely worse and things could get ugly quickly. I think we'll be better because I think all 3 reclamations will perform substantially better than last year, and because the last 2 will be more available, and I think at least two of the 4 revelations will be as good or better and playing full seasons. My money is on Lewis and Julien. I'm an optimist by nature so I'm happy with our chances. If 5 or 6 of those 7 crap out (or Lopez gets hurt) though, we will be worse and could be a lot worse.

Agreed. Lee's likely initial spot is as Farmer's replacement. To do that, he needs to improve as a RH hitter. AAA time is necessary.

Guys, I live in LA and went through the "fun" with Bauer. Reading the almost daily media coverage about the statements from Bauer and his accuser and all of the alleged evidence left one with a very low opinion of both people. Perhaps more relevant to the debate about bringing him back to pitch on the Twins, I think it's interesting that when he could come back the Dodgers chose not to bring him back even though they were pretty desperate for starting pitching at the time due to injuries and had real WS aspirations. There was also a rumor that the Dodgers polled the players about bringing him back and the players were almost uniformly against him returning to the team. You never know how much of that were the allegations or whether he was a bad teammate (a rumor that has always followed him) but that strikes me as fairly revealing. Could Bauer help the team as a picture on the field? Absolutely. Is it worth it for the publicity and the chance he will cause issues in what is a pretty close knit clubhouse? IMO, no and it's not even a very close call.

This makes a lot of sense to me. Assume we get 180 innings from Lopez and a combined 300 innings from Ryan and Ober. We need 375-400 inning from a combination of Paddack, DeSclafani and ...... at least 2 more guys. That's why you can't make Varland a reliever. We will need a minimum of 75 innings from him starting at the MLB level and that's if we get 300 from Paddack and DeSclafani. The latter seems highly unlikely. It seems a whole lot more likely that we'll get 200 or so MLB starting innings from Paddack and DeSclafani, will need 120 or so from Varland, and another 50-75 from a combination of SWR, Canterino, Dobnak, or whatever other young guys show at AAA (Festa?), or whatever flotsam and jetsam we sign and stash at AAA. So to me, that's why Varland HAS to stay as a starter who begins the year in AAA (since we can't send DeSclafani there), AND we can and should sign another MLB guy like Lorenzen or even Thor, or one who will take a MiLB contract with an opt out like Odorizzi, Jamie Barria, or even Danny Duffy. We're going to need them.

Agreed. There just wasn't much on the SP FA market and the prices a very inflated. Heck, Sonny Gray got 75M over three years guaranteed at age 34. Building out the bullpen is a smart pivot for a team short on starting pitching. I don't think we're looing at a lot of 4-5 inning starting, but we are looking at starts where guys are pulled at the first sign of trouble after the 5th except for Lopez. That's ok by me.

This "logjam" may be much more theoretical than real at the current time. We are well stocked at the MLB level if you assume that Kirilloff, Lewis and Julien remain healthy and that none suffers a sophomore slump. We need to keep in mind with Julien in particular that while he hit well in June and July, he had a .638 OPS in August and a low batting average in September, albeit with a .838 OPS because he walked a lot. Kirilloff has not consistently hit in hit MLB ABs, potentially but not assuredly due to injury. Regression is a real possibility here for both or they may settle in at an average or below level. Lewis is less likely to regress based on past experience but has had serious injury risk. One injury or one regression and all of a sudden Brooks Lee is in the majors with a clear path to playing time. Speaking of Brooks Lee, he has not yet shown that he can hit AAA pitching at a dominant level in a hitter friendly league, much less that he can hit MLB pitching. He had a .841 OPS in AA, but only a .731 OPS in AAA last year. He hit under .200 in spring training last year where he saw some fringe level major-league pitching. I agree that the odds are good he will be an above average major league hitter as he develops someday, but the evidence suggests that today is not yet that day. He still needs some time in AAA. I think the Front Office is playing this the right way. This is the year to find out if Julien can be your regular second baseman, Lewis your regular third baseman, and Kirilloff your regular first baseman. You bring in experienced backups like Santana and Farmer so you don't have a huge drop-off if in fact one of those three either gets hurt or can't handle the job. In the interim, Lee can develop a AAA and be ready by roughly midseason. If all three are playing well and looking like long term mainstays by midseason AND Lee is tearing up AAA, THEN you have a logjam that gives you some trading flexibility for that number two starter we might need in the playoffs or you move one to the OF. The chances of all four players working out that way, not to mention Wallner needing to cement himself as an everyday MLB player, are not real high. It would be great if they do and then you can tackle the logjam but let's make sure it develops before we make any moves.

Simple as that. Nothing else to see here.

I could see Larnach or Gordon getting traded but I doubt it's in a package for a MLB starting pitcher. I think it's a lot more likely that they get traded for someone farther down in a struggling organization like Oakland who has at least two options left, maybe an A ball pitching type. Gordon will go if we sign Taylor or Duvall (Pham makes no sense) and Larnach may go as the season wears on.

I'd agree with you if we were talking about any of the 3 guys who came up last year and stuck, Kirilloff, Lee, or even Martin. The problem is that Miranda isn't just a guy with one pretty good year and one horrific year, he's coming off of shoulder surgery and his comments suggest he may still be hurting. Too many red flags for me to take a chance out of the gate. He's got to start in AAA and show something first. You are right that if he does hit well at AAA to start out the season, this FO has a bad habit of keeping underperforming veterans over up and coming young players once the vets are signed. I would love to change that but am not hopeful. Still, injuries tend to provide opportunities so I think it's more likely than not that Miranda will get a chance this year IF he performs in AAA.

Assuming we can't or don't get a SP, I'm with Stringer - pay MAT $6-8m, trade Gordon for an A ball lottery ticket or two, and be done. MAT provides excellent CF defense and can play every day if (when) Buxton winds up hurt or only able to DH. IF Buxton can give us 100 games in CF, that still leaves 62 for Taylor. It's probably more of an 80 game need or even more. Taylor can also play LF against LH pitching, play late inning defense, and pinch run. Duvall is old, a lousy CF, and strikes out 30% plus of the time. Soler is too expensive and can't play defense at all. Pham is older, not much of a CF, and not someone to mess with in your fantasy league. Martin isn't yet ready and there will be an injury opened spot by mid-season if he's ready then. Same for Keirsey. Taylor can give us what we need on a 1 year deal, do it if we can.

I'll put a number to my thinking - 88 wins. Better bullpen, lesser rotation, lineup about even. Lineup balances losing Polanco and the possible dreaded "sophomore slump" from Lewis, Julien, and Wallner, plus last year being possible career years for Kepler, Castro, and Jeffers on the negative side with probable better years from Correa and Buxton, the addition of Santana, more ABS for Lewis, Julien, and Wallner if they don't slump, and better health and production from Kirilloff, Gordon, and Miranda on the positive side. Add in improvements in Detroit, KC, and even Cleveland, and I see us right about where we were last year. I added 1 win because I'm an optimist by nature.

I think the difference is Santana's track record suggests (doesn't guarantee) that he will be a roughly .750 OPS guy with very good or better defense next year. Miranda, on the other hand, might be the 2022 version, might be the 2023 version, might soar above the crowd, or might fall off the table in terms of performance. Or... he might be still injured and not worth much this year. I like Miranda and I think he is part of the core moving forward. I just don't think he will establish that until the second half of this year at the earliest. I want MLB depth being consistent players not players with a wide variety of potential outcomes. The unknowns can start in AAA and show us the money. IF Miranda does that, THEN he can come up and displace someone. Let's not bet on that up front. besides, with injuries being what they are, he'll get his chance at some point and probably by June if he performs in AAA.

Good analysis, Stringer. The more I look at Santana the more he looks like the classic "reliable vet" signing to help a youngish contending team get over the hump. He's steady while not spectacular at the plate, plays very good to elite defense, and hits well in RBI producing and late game situations. He's the kind of guy that can hit 4 or 5 in the order (news flash, we need one of those). Most importantly, he can help take the pressure off of the younger guys just finding their legs at the MLB level. Count me as one who likes this signing for reasons other than just the stats he brings. The Twins this year are dependent on three very young guys in the field (Lewis, Julien, and Wallner), and two in the rotation (Ryan and Ober) to perform at a high level. Odds are that at least one or two of them will not be as good this year as last. Having steady vets helps the young guys play better. I think Santana will help the team in ways that don't translate well to the stat sheet and I think we need that. Now only if we could get a steady veteran starter to pitch in the number 2 slot . . .

The long-term play should be for Lewis or Kirilloff to move to LF, Wallner to RF, and Brooks Lee to come up and play 2B or 3B, Julien to 1B if Lee plays 2B and Lewis 3B. In other words, some combination where Julien, Lewis, Kirilloff, and Lee handle the 2B, 3B, 1B, and LF spots on a daily basis. That's post 2024 though, certainly no earlier than after the ASB this year. That short term play that could move that timeline up if we can trade Max plus a not top 10 prospect or two for a young starting pitcher with #2/3 upside like a Miller or Woo from Seattle, Luzardo from Miami, etc. The pitching market is so hot and overvalued that I just don't think that's even close to possible. Bottom line is Max is here for 2024, probably hitting in the 4-6 slots. I'm ok with that unless they can trade him for pitching.

There's an article on ESPN ranking all the MLB farm system by "empirical surplus dollar value", whatever that is. The Twins are ranked as #9. That's a little bit higher than I would have expected and the ranking does not appear to include the Seattle prospect we just got in the Polanco trade, at least he is not mentioned. They do mention Lee, Martin, Festa, Canterino, and Cory Lewis as guys at upper levels who could make an impact this year or next, and Rodriguez and Raya as guys who could make an impact in the second half of 2024. I thought you guys might find this interesting. Here's the link: https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/39437646/top-30-mlb-farm-systems-prospects-list-2024-kiley-mcdaniel-cubs-orioles-tigers-padres it is behind the ESPN+ pay wall so I apologize if not everyone can access this. It will eventually get to the regular site. I get access to this because of the Disney Plus subscription my wife made us get to give my grandson something to watch when he comes over.

Ryu is an interesting call. I guess he had TJ surgery in June 2022 and threw 52 late season innings for the Blue Jays last year in 11 starts. 3.46 ERA, 4.91 FIP, 1.288 WHIP. Baseball reference projects him for a 6-5, 4.40 ERA over 88 innings as a starter this coming season. Spotrack gives him a "value" of $8.1m a year. He'll be 37 this year. I've read that the Yankees have interest in him as rotation depth. Would he be worth a 1 year, $8-10m deal? How about a 2 year $15-17m deal? Could be a good pairing with Paddack - 200 or so innings between the 2 of them. Might make sense on a 1 year deal if we can't get good RH bat. And to me, a good RH bat is Soler, Duvall, or maybe Pham. Not Merrifield, MAT, or Solano (love Solano but no power and age 36, hard to see a repeat, same for Taylor at age 33). Here's an interesting thought - Sign Ryu, fill the 80-100 games Buxton can't play CF with Castro and /or Martin or Keirsey and rotate Buxton, Kirilloff, Lewis, Farmer, Julien, Larnach, Wallner, etc. through the DH spot. Would rather have a good RH bat (Plan A) but I think this is a decent Plan C. FWIW, my Plan B is a trade for a youngish starter using prospects other than Jenkins or Lee. I don't think we are going to bee able to pull off Plans A or B so C is at least another option.

Good point. It's one of the reasons I think Soler is a better fit - strikeout rates of around 24-25% rather than over 30%. They both have pluses and minuses - Soler is a bit of a butcher in the field - but on balance I think Soler is the better fit. He's also more expensive at more like $12-15m a year instead of $5-8m a year, I'd be ok with either one on a 2 year or less deal. Ig that can't happen, I say let's go with what we got and spend out money on a pitcher like Michael Lorenzen.