LA Vikes Fan

How about picking up our old friend Kyle Gibson? He opted out of a minor league deal with the Rays. He was bad at the beginning of the season with Baltimore after being a signee late in spring training, and seems to have gotten it back together in AAA. Last year was 8-8 with a 4.24 ERA in 179 innings for St. Louis. Not great but better than throwing SWA and Festa our there and that's before thinking Ober may need an IL stint. Classic back end innings eater but gives you a chance. I think he's worth a shot given where our pitching is right now.

I am in favor of replacing Bride with a right handed hitter but I just don't think McCusker is that guy. He looked way overmatched in his previous few ABs, admittedly a tough type of of audition and small sample size, and is a detriment on defense. I doubt if he can give us much help. Our previous look suggests that Gaspar probably isn't that guy either. How about Anthony Prato? He's hitting pretty well this year (.299/.428/.418 (.846)) and has been playing SS, 2B, and LF. He's had a high OBP every year since being drafted in 2019 and steals 10 plus bases every year. Not a power guy, but can play multiple positions and could fill in better than McCusker. He's 27 so now is the time to see if he can play and we need somebody. I'd rather see Prato than McCusker at this point. I could see bringing up Gaspar if he could play anywhere but his defense is so bad that he's really unplayable except as a DH unless he can catch. My view - bring up Prato instead of Bride unless you want to bring up Gaspar and play him instead of Vasquez.

Well, we're both guessing here but I can think of two reasons why the presence of that debt influences the salability of the team even without it driving up the effective price. First, if that debt is from operating the Twins, the presence of that level of debt would tell a buyer a lot about the viability of the operation on a cash return basis. In other words, if the Twins are accumulating debt from operations it hard to see who a new buyer wouldn't have to do the same thing. No one wants to pay $1.7 for an asset and also finance it's operations, all in the hope of selling it for a profit later in a market where there is no real possibility of new contract with higher TV revenue, the sport itself isn't growing like other sports are, and it's hard to see another basis why values would rise. The second is the debt service. Assuming debt in a tough interest rate environment raises interest costs and there really doesn't seem to be a lot of reason to assume rates are going to decrease over the next few years given the increasing federal budget deficit. Assuming the debt makes the team more expensive to operate because of the interest payments. What I would really like to know is if the Twins are profitable, beak even, or lose money from operations. I suspect they are at best a break even. It's hard to see how revenue is going to go up. Maybe a new TV deal could help but it's hard to see that being out there. What about attendance? Is there a way to get it regularly above 2 million? If not, it's going to be hard to make money with this team. Minneapolis isn't a fast growing city like Tampa where one could project future attendance growth from simple population growth. It may be that the only way to sell the Twins for 1.7B is as a vanity investment to a multi billionaire looking to be on TV and hob nob with other owners. There just aren't a lot of those guys out there and I don't know that any of them live in Minnesota.

Are you sure this is this right? Generally speaking, any debt is factored into the price when buying assets, i.e.., the seller either pays off the debt from the sales proceeds or the buyer assumption of the debt is part of the price, so the price is $1.275 cash plus $425m in assumed debt. The latter option assumes that the debt is assumable which oftentimes it is not. There is often an acceleration clause which requires that the debt be paid upon the sale of the asset. I don't know the details but I don't think it's a safe assumption that the Pohlads are looking for $1.7B in cash plus the assumption of $425M in debt. If they are, the stated price would be $2.125B and I haven't seen that anywhere. I'm curious if anyone has seen the debt assumption piece explained. You guys are right about one thing, if the Pohlads are looking for $2,125B for the team, this will be a long and bumpy ride.

Good post. I would add Lee to the list of liked players but spot on, particularly the lack of anyone at AAA who can help. Speaking of that, is there anyone who can come in and take over 1b or the DH spot anywhere in the system? I looked at the Saints roster and it looks pretty grim. I don't count the career journey men as options; calling up a 30 year old having a good AAA year isn't going to help. We saw Gaspar already, seems unlikely that he can help. The only ones looking like a prospect is Prato and McCusker and McCusker looked pretty grim in his limited ABs. France is not the answer at 1B; he's hitting the same way he did the last 2 years which caused Seattle to release him. Julien has looked bad lately, same with Miranda. I guess the only hope to help this lineup is to hope that Lewis and Keaschall can hit when they come back. Anybody see anything else?

I'd be ok with trading France and/or Vasquez if you could get anything for them and we had a ready to go replacement just looking for an opportunity. Neither of those 2 will get us much of anything and we don't have a replacement for either. Bader and Castro are guys we should try to re-sign. They bring at least some value and the struggles of Keirsy, Miranda, Julien, et al. tell us we don't have nay ready replacement for either.

This is why I advocate for the Twins to do little at the deadline this year. Deadline deals are great for a team that is one or two pieces away from true contention. This Twins team is not that team. A deadline deal could also be great when a team has a real surplus of quality young MLB players at a position with good prospects who play that same position. That ain't the Twins either. The one thing that might make sense would be to trade prospects for a younger cost controllable starting pitcher like say Edwin Cabrera of Miami. Even then, I wouldn't give up a top 5-7 prospect, maybe 2 in the 10-25 range or 1 in the top 12 and one in the 25-30 range. Probably not enough to get it done. By the way, I also wouldn't trade Paddack. You won't get enough for him to make any difference and it sends the white flag message to a team still on the fringes of contention. Bad look for your existing players and really bad look for the fan base. The psychological damage isn't worth the likely paltry return.

Do you really think this team is good enough to trade a quality prospect or two for a hitter? One would only do that if we thought adding the hitter would make us a potential contender. I just don't see that as a realistic assessment of where this team is or is likely to be in the second half. The idea of trading someone like Culpepper or Prielipp for another teams "blocked prospect" or "hitting surplus" would be bad enough, but trading Duran or Jax makes little sense unless we are getting back established MLB hitting with multiple years of control. That just doesn't seem likely. So what should we do at the trade deadline? I think the answer is pretty simple - nothing or at least very little. Realistically, the Twins are an 80 to 87 win team that needs a solid starting pitcher, a bat that can really hit in the middle of the order, and another relief pitcher to become a 90 win team. The farm system has some decent prospects but it's not like we are training from a huge surplus of talent. We trade those prospects away now and this team is going to be hurting in another couple of years. I would trade that for a realistic chance of the championship, but adding a bat doesn't give this team a realistic chance for a championship. I think the right move is to play this out with what we have. Give guys like Lee, Wallner, and Larnach , and, when ready, Lewis and Keaschall, as many ABs as possible and throw Festa and SWR out there every 5th day, with Matthews joining them in August. I could see trading for decent relief pitcher although our track record of picking up relief help at the deadline is been pretty bad. This team just isn't good enough to be a real contender by adding a bat or two. Let's not deplete the future when it's unlikely to do much for the present.

Good analysis, thanks. Lee's recent hot streak has been great but that's what it is, a hot streak. This tear is nowhere near sustainable. Lee looks kind of like what was projected for him – a high floor/relatively low ceiling every day MLB player. If he could settle in at .275/.325/.425 with 10 – 15 homeruns a year, I think we would all be thrilled. He isn't there yet because he doesn't take enough walks but that may come with age and experience. He's a little limited because he is so slow so he doesn't give you a lot of upside on the base paths no matter how smart a baserunner he is. Still, it's all good. I think he could be a roster mainstay at 2B hitting in the 6 or 7 hole for many years to come.

And to make things worse, that list is a list of the guys they would most likely call up to replace Bride. I'd love to replace Bride with a better player, but who exactly is that? Maybe Prato or Eeles? Man, the AAA cupboard is pretty bare. I think Bride stays until Keaschall is ready to come back.

Undoubtedly some douchebag who bet on a game where he didn't pitch well. I would love to see them track this guy down, have a nice public trial or plea bargain, and make him a guest of the state for a few weeks. Until something like that happens, its just too easy for these morons to hide behind a keyboard and pretend to play God without consequences.

Moot point I guess if Civale is already going to the Pale Hose. Still, we're probably going to need somebody. I think Ober is looking at an IL stint soon to try to get his hip right. The Twins have 28 games left before the ASB break gives them 4 days off July 14-17. That's 5 starts from Ober's spot. May be he tries one more but I think he goes on the IL by at least June 20 to get a month off to get healthy. So who's that somebody? As the article points out, Lewis and Raya have been awful in AAA. McCaughan has been . . . ok?. . . and Dobnak pretty bad. I understand that Trane Baker just came up from AA but his stats there at least look promising. There some guys in AA with good stats, but I don't know anything about them. Do any of you guys think any of them are ready? Short of an overpay trade for Sandy Alcantra, it looks like we're going internal. My guess is McCaughan is going to get a chance unless Baker or Morris is deemed ready. Maybe McCaughan and Adams as an entry/piggyback for that spot? This could get ugly fast. Good thing we're hitting . . .

I agree except that I think this is a mid to high 80s win team - 83-89. There always seems to be a desire to "do something" at the deadline to make the team better, almost regardless of cost or opportunity. Other than trading a couple of 10-20 prospects for a guy like Sandy Alcantra (probably a pipe dream), there isn't likely to be a lot of value out there to get. Besides, we need a #3 or 4 hitter and a consistent #3 or 4 starter, and could use 1 more backend reliever. Those guys are really expensive and often times don't work out like the trade for Tyler Mahle. Getting a Tommy Pham or Taylor Ward doesn't really address the batting need, and pitchers like Tyler Anderson, Merrill Kelly, Aroldis Chapman, and Jake Bird are going to cost a fortune. We just don't have the young player fortune to trade. I see a very quiet deadline for the Twins unless we get a middle inning reliever. If we get that #3 or 4 bat for the second half it's going to be Royce Lewis and/or Luke Keaschall. If it happens, that #3 or 4 starter is going to be David Festa or Zebby Matthews, and the backend bullpen piece is going to be Louie Varland. And you know what, that's the right answer for where this team is right now. We are a solid to good team but need our young guys to take a big step forward to be a contending team. They can't step forward if they don't play. Let's quit looking elsewhere for the pieces we need and overpaying for slightly above average players. Let's play the guys we have and see if they are those pieces. This is the year to find that out, not the year to trade from alleged "surplus" in the hope we can go from 85 wins to 90.

Alcantra is a very interesting idea depending on the price. If I'm the Twins, the top 5 prospects are off the table, as is Soto. After that, I'm open for business. They can have one in the 6-12 range, one in the 13-20 range, plus a throw in of Julien, Prato, Eeles or (maybe) Miranda. I still have hope for Mirnada and I think they dumped Mike Ford to see if Miranda could show enough in AAA to be the 2026 1B on the big club. So a package like Lewis or Raya (but not both), Gonzales or Hill, plus one of the throw-ins. Seems like that could be a win-win.

Alcala threw 40 pitches last night and was taken out with 2 outs in the 8th inning of a blowout game. Given that usage and the way he was taken out you gotta think the Twins might say he has a sore shoulder and put him on IL. Hell, he probably does have a sore shoulder after last night. Probably a sore neck too from line drive whiplash. What do you do with SWR? I would say he's bullpen material for now, replacing Alcala, but then you have a "long man" who just pitched when Festa is starting and we may need a long man. I say Alcala to the IL, SWR down, and one spot is taken by Adams who can come back without waiting 15 days because of Alcala's IL placement. Maybe you elevate one more pitcher (Dobnak or McCaghan? Maybe Morris or Lawyerson?) until the Sunday start. Who's then up to start Sunday against Houston in Houston? I say Morris but it's all a true crapshoot now.

This sounds right except that I think Dobnak is probably #9. There was a lot of talk on the site about trading Paddack before the season so that Festa, SWR, and Matthews could get a "fair chance". Well, be careful what you wish for. They're getting that chance now. Matthews has been okay to good in limited outings, SWR bad and seemingly getting worse, and we'll see about Festa over the next couple of starts. This is why you keep pitching depth. MLB teams have used an average of 11.8 different starting pitchers per season 2015. Some teams have used as many as 16. Even assuming a couple of those guys are "openers", you have to go into every season assuming that you're going to use at least 8 – 10 different starting pitchers for at least a minimum of 5 starts apiece. We are about 40% of the way through the season and we've now used 7 starters. Frankly, that's about right. Life could be worse, we could be the Dodgers. They have already used 13 different starters. I also think the criticism about not having enough of a "pitching pipeline" is way overblown. We have three young pitchers who actually deserve an MLB shot. That is much better than most teams. There is nobody out there that's got 7 or 8 proven competent starters. Nobody, not even the Dodgers. If you are a competent starting pitcher, you are on a major league roster starting for some team. You're not out there as a street free agent or toiling away in AAA. Well, it should be interesting to watch and see how these three guys do, plus a possible chance of seeing Morris, Adams, or even Baker. Hopefully we will get at least one middle to back and starter and one middle to top and starter out of the first three guys. My bet would be Festa in the middle to back end and Matthews more towards the middle to top end with SWR as a long man/spot starter type, but we will see how that goes. The preseason predictions were correct; the Twins were in as good a position as anyone to endure injuries to starting pitching by having some promising young depth. Time to find out how promising these guys really are.

He sems like a decent bench player but it's very unlikely that his hot start presages a major rise to competent MLB starter at age 29. This is pretty simple. He's second on the list to go. First guy gone is Bride, then Clemens. How long they stay depends on when whether there is someone who needs to come up. Keaschall comes up when he's ready, maybe just before or right after the ASB. The real question is who else is there? Maybe Eeles? Maybe Miranda or Julien show enough, but I think that those 2 are in AAA for the season unless they really break out for at least a month or Clemens just falls off a cliff since Clemens has been better than either of them. Also all it takes is one IF injury for Clemens to have a pretty secure roster spot. I can see him hitting around .235-.250 with an OPS over .750 in a part time role. Given that he can field pretty well, that's a good guy to have. I suspect that Clemens is here for the duration unless Eeles or Prato forces his way up. I think we're looking at the non-pitching side of the 26 man roster absent injury until Keaschall is ready and then Bride goes. Eeles or Prato is the first man up if someone gets hurt in the IF, Keirsey in the OF unless and until Austin Martin is ready.

Agreed. BTW, I like that you give the day's stats for the top 20 prospects. Unfortunately, guys like Julien and Miranda that have lost their prospect status by playing in the MLB don't show and they are the ones most likely to be promoted if they play well. Is there a way to have a listing of those kind of players with these reports?

Thanks for letting me know. I was hoping for an IL spot for Alcala. I think this bullpen may burn out quickly if we don't have a long man that can go at least 2+ innings after Festa and SWR.

This is the year we are going to find out if Festa, Matthews, and SWR are ready to be MLB starting pitchers. A big part of a starting pitcher's job is to eat innings, at least 5 or 6 a game. SWR had an opportunity and failed in large part because he couldn't do that. He's now going to get another chance. Matthews did eat enough innings for two starts, but then wound up on the IL. That doesn't work either. Festa is the next man up. He is got to find a way to get through 5 innings in less than 80 pitches to give him a chance to go 6 or 7. Whichever one of these three can start eating innings is our number 4 starter and stays as number 5 when Pablo is back. I think the Twins see the issue and that's why Adams is in the big leagues. Assuming he stays now that Coloumbe has rejoined the club(I think Alcala may be gone), his job is going to be that of the traditional long man - go 2-3+ innings in relief of the starter who only goes 4 or 5. I think we need a guy like that with two rotation spots being held by these three young guys. They specifically used Adams at St. Paul to go in 3 to 4 inning bursts so we would have a prepared long man. Hope it works.

That was ugly. The ump did Festa no favors on the low strike, but this loss wasn't the Ump's fault. He looked rattled and the rest of the guys looked like a team finishing a 10 day cross country road trip barely able to get through the game. At least we didn't burn any relief pitching other than the 2 most likely to be in St. Paul next week. Well, the depth experiment is here with Matthews and Festa on the mound every 5th day. I kind of expect them to demote Funderburk for someone that can pitch multiple innings in relief while Coloumbe shakes off the rust in AAA. Maybe Adams, McCaughan, Misiewicz, or our old friend Randy Dobnak can play that role? It's hard to see how this bullpen holds up when 2 of the 5 starters are unlikely to go beyond 5+ innings a start. That pitcher or Alcala can then be sent back or DFA'd when Coloumbe is ready to go. I'm hopeful we can get through the Blue Jays series without a long man with Ober, Paddack and Ryan up but we'll need a long man next week for the Rangers series starting Tuesday. Those of us who wanted Matthews and Festa to get a nice long look are now getting our dream. Hope it isn't a nightmare.

Wow, Lee just does not look good at the plate. I thought it was just a problem right handed but he isn't hitting much with any authority left handed either. This is starting to look like last year where he started ok and just faded out to being unplayable.

Completely agree. Even if it made baseball sense to trade Duran on the idea that we'd be trading from "surplus", something with which I strongly disagree, the return would not be worth it. By the way, rumor is that our old friend Taylor Rogers will be available unless the Reds move into contention. He's a rental with his contract up at the end of the year and on a $6m number for this year. Would he be worth a prospect or two in the 10-20 range?

No offense Matthew, but this is just a terrible idea on several levels. First, there is no evidence that Varland can close. He is improving but still shaky at times. More importantly, we know that Jax CANNOT close because we've tried that and it's failed and failed repeatedly. We also know from experience that Stewart has about 30 innings a year in that arm before he gets hurt. It's great that we're getting them now but the odds of him being an effective reliever after the ASB are not good based on his history. Nothing kills a team faster than giving up leads late. Trading Duran is a recipe for that to happen. Second, weakening the pitching staff right when our #1 starter gets hurt is bordering on reckless. I'm hopeful that Festa will be effective but there is no chance that he will give us the number of innings that Lopez does so we are looking at more bullpen usage, not less. I think the Lopez injury makes it more likely that we trade FOR a reliever, not that we trade away a reliever. Third, the offensive situation is not as dire as some people seem to think it is. You can't look at season long stats given our previous injuries. Wallner, Buxton, Castro, and Correa are back to full force, Lewis has shown signs of waking up in the last 2 days, and Larnach has shown real improvement. Is this a top 5-7 offense? No, it is not unless Lewis becomes the first half of 2024 Lewis. But it should be a top half offense if we don't have a major injury. If we do, the trade is from pitching prospect depth, not the trade of a dominant closer. Decent offense backing a solid rotation with a dominant bullpen is a winning recipe as shown by the mid-teens Royals. This team could be that recipe. Finally, trading Duran would kill the clubhouse just when the team is feeling better about itself. Trading away one of your best players at a key position sends the "I don't care if we win" message. Moreover, there shouldn't be a financial issue. Money and contract issues may or may not even be an issue in the future because we are supposedly getting a new owner. The days of trading good players to get "value" before they are "too expensive" may be over or at least lessened. Unless we are trading Duran for Judge or Ohtani, this is a very, very bad, terrible idea IMHO. Rant over. Have a great day.

Well, this topic did not age well. With Pablo going on the shelf for at least 15 days, the chances of the Twins trading a recently effective starter just went from unlikely to non-existent. My bet is a very quiet trade deadline with at most a middle inning reliever added yet again.