LA Vikes Fan

I suspect you're right and would go even a step father - Vasquez and Santana are here for the year. I would hope that the catching is more 60/40 or even 65/35 Jeffers come August and September, and that Miranda is playing 75% of the time and at least in a 50/50 time share at 1B with Santana by then. I see a slow transition to next year where Jeffers is the starting Catcher 2/3 of the time and Miranda the primary 1B. Margot and Farmer are Wild Cards whose status almost entirely depends on the play of others. If Lee and Julien are both ready to play regularly at the MLB level in July, there is no room for Farmer on the roster. If only one or neither is, or if there is a significant injury to Correa or Lewis (God forbid), Farmer is here for the rest of the year. If Martin hits and either Wallner shows he can return to what he was in the good items of 2023 or Keirsey forces his way up, there is no place for Margot. People complain about Martin's lack of power but Margot has no power either. Both Farmer and Margot's situation is also complicated by their salaries for 2025 - both are likely FA but probably expect to be in the same range as this year - Margot at $10m (2025 mutual $12m option with a $2m buyout), and Farmer at $6.3m (2025 $6.25m mutual option, 250K buyout). There is an almost Zero chance either will be back at anything close to that kind of a number. I suspect the plan is to ease them out IF we have someone who deserves a look as their replacements, particularly since is far from given that Kepler will be back next year. Bottom line is that absent injury I expect Santana and Vasquez to be here for the rest of 2023, with their playing time decreasing as the season wears on. Margot and Farmer are much more at risk but likely to be here all year unless someone really forces the FO's hand. We have 6 weeks or so to make these decisions so now is the time if you're any of the AAA guys.

Well put. The recent hot streaks from these four have been great but we shouldn't expect them to continue. All 4 look like serviceable vets, Santana maybe a little better than that. We can win with guys like this; it's just you don't win because of guys like this. I'd like to see a little more Miranda at 1B this year with a little less Santana to set us up for next year. Other than that, they do provide some back of the roster value and Rocco is using them the right way. Let's be honest, it's not like any of these 4 are holding back another Royce Lewis or even another Jose Miranda from getting a shot. The only AAA guys who look like they've earned that shot are Martin (now back up) and maybe Helman. Until we have a viable replacement who can perform at least as well, I see no reason not to keep these guys around.

I'd rather have Martin at 2B with Castro back to his UTL role.

Actually, Miranda is better against RH pitching - .814 OPS v .669 against L:H pitching. So is Correa, .855 v. .698, and Jeffers, .822 v .772. The year to date stats may be a little misleading since they include LH at bats against RH pitching by Wallner, .531 against RH pitching, Julien at .673, and Santana at .679. Wallner and Julien are in the minors now. Swap out Santana for Miranda at 1B against some RH pitching and the problem lessens quite a bit. Plus RH hitters tend to hit same sided pitching better than LH hitters. I'm not too worried about this. We still have the Miranda/Margot platoon in LF, and now Castro is available to play RF against LH pitching where he has a .955 OPS, instead of Kepler if we let Martin take over 2B.

Agreed, and I think too soon on Wallner. He's hitting now, but it's only been a week or so after 2 months of being pretty putrid. Maybe he's fixed the hole in his swing, maybe the pitching hasn't been good enough to expose that hole over the last week or so. Wallner needs to hit well for at least the rest of June before he should even be considered. I see him as an after ASB call up at the earliest unless there is an injury. The two main options who might help the Twins now are Martin and Helman. One of them is coming up today now that Kirilloff is being optioned to AAA, probably Martin. One of those two is probably the right call. The other intriguing possibility is Brooks Lee coming up to play 2B. It's probably too soon but it is an interesting possibility. 2B is the position we need to fill so either Martin, Helman or Lee could be a possibility. Call up a 2B, and move Castro to his UTL role. That's the best move.

This had to happen. Kirilloff was not hitting, was hurting us defensively, and clogging up the lineup by taking at bats away from Larnach. Larnach is hitting and also needs the development time. I'm actually in the camp that Larnach's improvement this year on breaking balls may mean that he can be solid consistent major league hitter with OPS above .750 and 20 HRs a year. Let's play him at least four days a week and find out if that's possible. I actually hope they call up either Martin or even Helman. Our greatest need is at 2B, not at 1B or LF. I see Lewis, Santana, and Miranda as essentially a three-man group covering 3B, 1B, and DH. All three are playing well and deserve to play pretty much every day. Larnach and Margot are actually forming a pretty good platoon tandem in LF. I was one of the guys with a torch and pitchfork to run Margot out of town in May, He has been one of our best hitters since about May 15 along with Miranda. What we really need is someone that can play 2B and potentially lead off so Castro can go back to his preferred role as a super utility playing four days a week for other guys, including being the backup CF, and doing some pinch hitting and pinch running. I would really think about giving either Martin or Helman some run at 2B since Julien is still not hitting in AAA. Both have high OBPs in AAA (Martin .466, Helman .365), and could potentially be a leadoff hitter. We need a true lead off hitter bad. I would start them in the number nine spot see how they hit but I would play them regularly see if there's something there. The hope would be that whoever we call up can lead off or even be that "second leadoff hitter" in the 9 hole while consistently playing a solid 2B, That would really improve the lineup.

I think that’s the point. I made this point another thread. The Twins should be looking to trade for a starting pitcher and a middle of the bat but only someone that has years of control remaining after 2024. We are not good enough that trading a prospect of any value for a rental player makes sense. I would love to see them put a package together for Luzardo and would be willing to give up a top-tier prospect to do that. Garrett is only worth a second tier guy as a headliner, but I think that’s worth it as well. Miami has no one I want on the hitting side.

Agreed there. My view is to option Kirilloff to AAA to try to fix his issues, not cut him, unless he has value in a trade. I think he has very little trade value right now, certainly not as a trade centerpiece. The only two in AAA who look like they might deserve a shot in MLB are Martin and Helman. Helman could help by playing 2B but really would be a replacement for Farmer unless we make Castro the every day LF and Helman the every day 2B. Martin gives us another RH OF where Margot has done very well lately - .429/.500.714 (.1,214) over the last 7 games (14 ABs), .346/.433/538 (. 973) over the last 15 (26 ABs). His last 30 games (67 ABs) might be the better comp - .269/.319/.358 (.677). The latter is kind of who he's been over his career. He's really helped the last couple of weeks but is clearly at RH platoon player, not an everyday player. So, the only answer I really see other than trotting Alex out there and hoping things improve would be to send Kirilloff to AAA to play 1B every day with Julien at 2B, and calling up Helman to play 2B on a regular basis with Farmer there a couple of days a week against LH pitching. Castro plays some OF when Buxton or Kepler sit, since he's a better RH hitter than LH, and around the diamond on other days to give guys breathers. Margot and Larnach are the LF platoon. Might not be a bad idea: Helman is 28, broke through in 2022 and 2023, and has continued to hit. If he's ever going to get a shot, pretty soon may be the only time.

Harsh comp, but pretty accurate. A lot of folks thought Mazara was only one step from stardom in Texas and it just never came. Instead he regressed, much like Kirilloff is doing this year. Kirilloff's power is a conundrum. He seems to hit more deep or warning track fly ball outs to left center than any LH hitter I've ever seen. Yet he rarely hits a hard line drive to that same area and not much hard contact to right or right center. Is that launch angle thing, is he selling out for power, or is that just his "normal" stroke? Whatever it is, what he is doing is not working and is unlikely to work in the future.

I agree with your premise. Larnach and Miranda appear to be passing Kirilloff in the hierarchy this season. There will very soon be no room left in the Inn for him. Frankly, I think he would already be in AAA if there was someone there with a strong case for promotion who wasn't injured.

You're probably right. I know it's been only 10 starts but he looks like a potential long term mid rotation rotation fixture with 5(?) years of control after 2024. That's a very valuable asset. He might be "untouchable" at this point. Varland, less so.

Either SWR or Varland in a deal for Luzardo would be a good call, depending on what went with them of course. It would be ironic if we traded SWR and Martin for Luzardo, thereby completing the what did we get for Jose Berrios loop.

Agreed. Whatever we do, don't trade for a two month rental player. That player isn't going to make us a WS contender this year unless Aaron Judge is available. We should only consider trading for guys with control or a reasonable contract through at least 2025. That makes the choices actually fairly simple. We need another starter and a middle of the order bat. The available starters that are any good (at least this year) and fit this criteria are Jesus Luzardo (2.5 years of control), Tyler Anderson ($13m for 2024 and 2025, prorated for rest of 2024), Garrett Crochet (800K in 2024, arb eligible 2025 and 2026), Zach Littell (1.85M 2024, arb eligible 2025), and Erick Fedde ($7.5m/year 2024 and 2025, prorated for rest of 2024). I think we can assume the White Sox either won't trade with us or will ask for the moon, and Littell is just back of the rotation filler, so really the options are Luzardo and Anderson. On the bat side, the pickings are even slimmer for controllable players. It really boils down to Taylor Ward (.247/.324/.431(.753), 11 HRs, arb through 2026), Luis Rengifo (.316/.367/.448(.815), arb thru 2025), Jazz Chisholm (.249/.316/.429(.745), can play CF, arb through 2026), and Lane Thomas (.218/.285/.338(.623), arb through 2025). There is one rental bat that might be available and not cost too much - Jesse WInker. He's slashing .261/.375/.396 (.771). He's on a one year $2m contract. I would trade a non-pitcher Tier 4 or 5 guy for him. Pete Alonso sounds good until you realize that his contract is $20.5m AND he intends to return to the NY Mets after the season if they trade him. He will also cost a lot in prospects since the teams that think they are really close to WS contention will come after him. Not worth it. I would love to see us go to Miami for Luzardo or to the Angels for Anderson and Rengifo, would take Ward instead of Rengifo if necessary since he can play LF. Getting Rengifo really helps at 2B but then we have the issue of what we do we do with Julien and Lee. I would be willing to trade a Tier 2 and Tier 4 player for Luzardo - maybe Festa and Gonzalez plus an A ball guy not Soto. As for Anderson PLUS either Rengifo or Ward, a 3 and a 4 or two 3s depending on which one you get - Something like Keschall, Raya, and filler or Raya, Gonzalez, and Schobel. Have to assume that at least one of the traded players will be a pitcher. You almost always have to trade pitching to get pitching.

Why not indeed? I wonder if Varland is getting showcased for a possible trade. Assuming we are trying to get another starter like Luzardo or even Tyler Anderson, the Marlins or Angels will want a young controllable pitcher back as part of the package. Bringing up Varland does make one wonder if he could fill that role in a trade. Good for the Twins if we get the right guy (Luzardo), good for the other team because they get a possible starter who is at worst a strong late inning reliever/closer type and is pre-arbitration, and good for Varland who gets to go to a team that will let him sink or swim as a starter in a low pressure environment. Just food for thought.

I would rather see Festa or Boushley than Varland. I think Louis has a lot more to work on on the farm given his performance there.

The Trade Deadline will be upon us soon. My premise is that the Twins as constructed are not true contenders but are close; they could move into true contenders status with an upgrade or two. To me, that means it's time to seek a trade while being careful about the cost. Let's start with what we need between the starting rotation, bullpen, and starting lineup: What We Need Starting Rotation - This is our biggest drop off from last season and the this is the area of our biggest need IMHO. The starting staff's current ERA is 4.67, with a 4.11 FIP. In 2023, the starting staff of the 3.82 ERA, and a 3.73 FIP. The primary differences are (1) we've replaced Gray (2.79 ERA/2.83 FIP) with Paddack (5.26 ERA/4.17 FIP) and Varland (9.18 ERA/7.65 FIP), and Pablo Lopez is not the same pitcher, at least so far, with his ERA going from 3.66 to to 5.45 and his FIP from 3.33 to 4.15. I would argue that we've actually improved in the fifth starter position with Woods – Richardson at a 2.84 ERA with a 3.55 FIP, as compared to Maeda's 4.26 ERA and 3.96 FIP. The 2024 Starters giving up basically .75 more runs a game is a real difference. Lineup - This is our secondary need. Our team BA, OBP, and SLG are all down, as is true across baseball. More importantly since the games are won and lost based on runs scored, the Twins have moved from 10th most runs scored in baseball to 16th, and the eye test tells me we are much less consistent in the order. We can certainly use another bat either from my minor-league promotion or in a trade. Given the offense of struggles around baseball, however, that is going to be expensive. Bullpen - I actually think we're good here. This year's bullpen has a ERA/FIP/X FIP/line of 3.59/3.74/3.88 , as compared to last year's 3.95/4.14/4.19. This also seems to comport with the eye test. Now injuries could kill the current bullpen although I think we actually have more depth than last year and will have less of a need to give innings to washed up vets and unproven minor leaguers. Also, we could strengthen the bullpen even further if we pick up a starting pitcher and move Paddack bullpen and/or do what I think is inevitable for at least 2024 and move Varland to the bullpen. Conclusion - What we really need is another starting pitcher and it would be very helpful although less essential to get another bat. The other thing we really need is for Pablo Lopez to pitch like the 2023 version instead of the 2024 version although that alone is not enough. Who Can We Get and What Will It Cost We now get into the realm of the truly subjective when projecting who is available and what the cost would be. What I'm doing here is only listing players that have been listed by more respected sources as being made available by their teams. This is always going to be subjective, but fun. I'm only listing players who have control past this year. NO rentals. I'm not interested in trading prospects for two months of anyone who isn't at least as good as Aaron Judge. This team isn't so close to a World Series title that it's worth trading for rental. I also have included anybody within over $15 million year contract since that's a hard pass for this front office. When you eliminate the rentals, the picture becomes a lot clearer. I'm interested in everyone's opinions. Who appears to be available: Starting Pitchers - Jesus Luzardo (Marlins) - 2.5 years of control through 2026, $5.5 million contract this year Tyler Anderson (Angels) - signed through 2025, $13m a season in 2024 aand 2025 Patrick Sandoval (Angels) - controlled through 2026, $5.025 million contract this year Trevor Williams (Nats) - $6m 2024, $7m 2025 (former reliever turned starter this year) Erick Fedde (White Sox) - $6.5m 2024, $7.5m 2025 Lucas Erceg (As) - pre-arbitration, controlled through 2030 Bats - Taylor Ward (LF, Angels) - Controlled through 2026, $4.8 million contract this year - (.247/.324/.431 (.754), 112 OPS+, 11 HRs, 34 RBIs in 239 Abs Randy Arozarena (LF, Rays) - controlled through 2026, it $8.1 million contract this year - (.179/.288/.326 (.614) in 2024, lifetime .780 OPS, 123 OPS+) Luis Rengifo (2B, Angels) - controlled through 2025, $4.4 million contract this year - (.316/.367/.488 (.815), 130 OPS+) Isaac Paredes (3B, Rays) - controlled through 2027, $3.4 million contract this year - (.288/.373/.482(.855), 146 OPS+) Brent Rooker (OF/DH, As) - controlled through 2027, $750,000 contract this year - (.270/.356/.541 (.897), 159 OPS+ Jazz Chisholm (2B/CF, Marlins) - controlled through 2026, $2.625 million contract this year - (.249/.316/.429 (.745), 107 OPS+) Jo Adell (Corner OF, Angels) - controlled through 2027, $770,000 contract this year (.189/.253/.426 (.679). 88 OPS+ This leaves me with three ways to go. First is to trade for Jesus Lusardo, probably the best starter of the bunch. He will cost us a top 100 prospect and Gabriel Gonzalez will not be enough. The second would be to trade for combination of Taylor Ward or Luis Rengifo and Tyler Anderson from the Angels. We might be able to get away without a top 100 prospect or Gonzalez being that prospect as part of a package. The third would be the trade for our old friend Brent Rooker. Hard to believe he will be 30 years old in November. You have to think he will cost 2 or 3 B/B+ level prospects. Here are my thoughts in a couple of packages - Option 1: Twins get: Tyler Anderson and Taylor Ward Angels get: Trevor Larnach or Matt Wallner, Luke Keaschall or Tanner Scholbel, and Marco Raya or Corey Lewis, plus A ball guy Option 2: Twins get: Tyler Anderson, Luis Rengifo Angels get: Edouard Julien, 2 of Louie Varland, Zebby Matthews, Jaylen Nowlin, Either Varland and Nowlin, or Matthews, Nowlin, and a decent non-pitching prospect like Schobel or Rosario. Option 3: Twins get; Jesus Luzardo and Jazz Chisholm Marlins get; Brooks Lee, Louie Varland, Luke Keaschall Option 4: Twins get: Brent Rooker As get: Marco Raya, Tanner Schobel What does everyone think? Are there good trade targets out there that I'm missing that are controllable beyond 2024? Remember, I'm assuming were not interested in rental since there isn't one guy out there that would take us over the top, not even Pete Alonso. Am I overpaying for any of these guys? Inquiring minds want to know . . .

I live in LA and have seen these guys. there are 4 players we should look into - Taylor Ward, Luis Rengifo, Tyler Anderson and Carlos Estevez. Ward is solid, not a star, but a good RH hitting power hitter who plays a pretty good LF. Controlled through 2026. Anderson was good in 2022, lousy last year, and has been good this year. He is in the second year of a three year, $39 million contract that is even at 13 million a year. Solid mid rotation left-handed starter that doesn't have a big contract. Estevez was the Angels closer last year and is this year. 31 years old with a decent track record, but would help our bullpen. Rengifo is 27, hitting over .300 this year after hitting .264 last year with a .784 OPS, over .800 OPS so far this year. A little stressed at shortstop and a very good second baseman, would be a guy we can plug and play for the next 3 to 5 years at second base. Getting $4.4 million this year, last year of arbitration in 2025. None of these guys are a big star but all of them could be very solid additions, particularly Anderson, Rengifo and Ward. None should cost one of our Top 100 prospects, but will require at least a solid return. Here's my two trade thoughts: Option 1: Twins get: Tyler Anderson and Taylor Ward Angels get: Trevor Larnach or Matt Wallner, Luke Keaschall or Tanner Scholbel, and Marco Raya or Corey Lewis, plus A ball guy Option 2: Twins get: Tyler Anderson, Luis Rengifo Angels get: Edouard Julien, 2 of Louie Varland, Zebby Matthews, Jaylen Nowlin, Either Varland and Nowlin, or Matthews, Nowlin, and a decent non-pitching prospect like Schobel or Rosario. In either scenario, Twins get help for this year in return for future potential solid major league players or better, including at least one guy who is major league ready or close, either Larnach, Wallner, or Julien. I would actually be willing to trade Kirilloff instead but I don't think there's any market for him at this point given his injury status and his poor performance this year when he is allegedly healthy. I don't think anybody else as much interest in him at all. I'm doing this because I think having a solid left-handed starter would really really help this team. I would put Paddack in the bullpen for now and have him as the #6 starter. I think Varland is going to wind up in the BP long-term and don't see him a staring pitching depth. Fortunately, Woods-Richardson has shown so far that he could be a long-term starting pitcher but after that were really projecting guys did not yet even dominated AAA. Adding Anderson or Jesus Luzardo from Miami would really stabilize the rotation, the area that would have the biggest drop off from last season, and adding a consistent hitter would help the lineup. It's the classic short-term versus long-term but I do think the system enough to survive something like this.

The Twins are 0-14 against the Guardians, Orioles, and Yankees; 33-15 against the rest of MLB. What that tells me is what's probably pretty obvious to all; we are a solid to pretty good team that cannot go toe to toe with the elite teams in the AL. This just smells like an 87-92 win season, a Wild Card berth with Cleveland winning the division, a win in the first round, and a quick second round exit. We're close, but not good enough. How do we make the incremental changes necessary to fix this so we can really contend? Lewis helps, and Lopez pitching like a #1 or #2 starter would help even more. There's possible lineup help in AAA between Julien, Wallner, and Lee, but that's likely to be more at the margins than in the middle of the order. The bullpen is probably good enough IF Stewart comes back. Still, we're short a higher end starter and could really use another bat. Very unlikely we can or will find both. I think the answer is staring us in the face - trade for Luzardo or Weathers from the Marlins. Don't be afraid to give up multiple MiLB players including Gabriel Gonzalez, Luke Keaschall, and Marco Ryan. Try for quantity over quality and keep Emma, Lee, Festa, and Jenkins, but don't be afraid to include one of the AAA/MLB guys - Wallner, Varland, Larnach, Kirilloff, or Martin if you need to. Count on AAA reinforcements and improvement for the lineup and trade from surplus, but improve the starting pitching now while we can. A package that includes 2 of the 3 MiLB players I mentioned plus a couple of less heralded players might be enough or one of them plus one of the AAA/MLB players. That's what I would be looking to do by the 4th of July.

Not surprised Buxton and Kepler aren't playing tonight. Neither is hitting a lick whereas Miranda, Margot and Santana have been carrying the team offensively for the last 2 weeks. Now playing Vasquez instead of Jeffers and not DHing Lewis instead of Kirilloff? Hard to stomach.

I understand your hesitancy. Dealing Lee works IF you have Lewis, Miranda, Correa, and Julien all available to be playing regularly. If you don't, he's the first man up for all of them. I would take the risk but completely understand if others would not.

I'd go the other way and give up one highly ranked guy and a lower ranked guy or two for Luzardo. Maybe Lee and Martin? Or Lee and Schobel plus Bowen? Or use Gabriel Gonzalez as the headliner in the same kind of package? I agree that we shouldn't trade Emma or Festa. If we believe that Julien can come back to the 2023 version (and I do) Lee is little redundant with Julien, Correa, Lewis, and Miranda all ahead of him. Trade from surplus to get what you want or need.

While I would rather keep Lee, I do think the Twins should be open to a trade but only if the is the primary return is a starting pitcher. To me, the obvious target is Jesus Luzardo of Miami. Maybe of Lee plus a non-pitching B/B+ level prospect like Schobel, Martin, or maybe Helman for Luzardo makes sense. Try to then sign Luzardo to a multi year deal at 10-15m a year since he has 2.5 years of arb left and you have your top 4 starters set up for the next 3-5 years when you add in Ryan and Ober.

I like your lineup. I actually like Castro in the leadoff spot and really like Lewis in the 2 hole. I would switch Larnach and Kepler for now since Kepler's just not hitting right now.

Following up on my last post, here's the lineup I would like to see tonight against a RH starter: 1 - Larnach LF or Castro 2B 2 - Correa SS 3- Lewis 3B 4- Miranda IB 5 - Kirilloff DH 6 - Castro 2B 7 - Jeffers C 8 - Kepler RF 9 - Buxton CF Send a message. Hit and you're in the top half. Don't hit, and you're at the bottom until you work your way up.

This is our real offensive problem and it's not just Jeffers. OPS for the last 15 games - Jeffers .568, Kepler .608 (.282 over the last 7 games), Buxton .553 (.126, for the last 7, .640 for the year), and Correa .686 (.424 for the last 7). The expected core of the batting order has been putrid for 2 weeks. The Twins have been carried offensively for the last 2 weeks by Jose Miranda, with help to a certain extent by Willi Castro, Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, and yes, Manuel Margot and even Santana and Farmer. Makes some of the lineup decisions make a little more sense than they appear at first glance - like sitting Kepler for Margot, dropping Buxton in the order, giving more playing time to Margot, Santana, and Farmer, and making sure Miranda gets 3-4 ABs a game. It's a long season with ebbs and flows and those top 4 guys hopefully will get it back together. I have confidence in Jeffers and Correa, not as much in Kepler, and not a lot in Buxton at this point. Just pointing this out because we all seem to react to low output by saying DFA Margot, bench Santana, make the catching rotation 70/30 Jeffers, leave Farmer on the bench, play Kepler against LHs, call up Keirsey, etc., me included. Looking at these stats over the last 2 weeks does make me wonder if Baldelli may be making the only decisions he can because the lineup we thought was the right one with Jeffers, Kepler, Buxton, and Correa in the 2-6 holes looks like a lineup that can't score runs even if we put Lewis in the middle. Get ready for more lineups with Miranda and Lewis in the 3 and 4 holes, and more Margot and Santana in the short term.