LA Vikes Fan

Wow, a Kenny Jaye reference. I should be embarrassed that I know exactly who you're talking about, but I'm not. By the way, the very capable Kenny Jaye was originally "Sodbuster" Kenny Jaye. I see the Twins more as Nick Bockwinkel or Billy Robinson - good, but never quite good enough. Maybe someday we can be Verne Gagne or the Crusher. There's always hope.

Well, I was just writing a post about how this won't be popular, but I would put Ober on the Il and sign Kyle Gibson. I then learned that GIbson has signed a minor league deal with the Rays. Well, there goes that opportunity. We can't continue this way. Ober is off, he needs a rest and a re-set. He can go on the Il and then go on a rehab assignment in AAA without burning his last option. It seems very unlikely that he will "find it" if we just keep sending him out there. Who takes his place? Here are the options: We can IL Ober and bring up a replacement starter. I would go with Adams, but if Baker or Urena has actually looked good in AAA (the stats are not too kind), I could see them as a replacement. Maybe Prielipp or Paredes from AA? Yes, it will be a bullpen day after a short start but that's a better shot at a win than giving up 6-9 runs or more in 6 innings. Still, a pretty lousy option. I would really think about going with a 4 man rotation, IL'ing Ober, and bringing up 2 of Adams, Funderburk or Ohl from AAA after I also DFA Wentz. The only times before the ASB we will have guys on only 3 days rest instead of 4 are this Saturday and Sunday, July 4 and 5 - Ryan on Saturday, SWR on Sunday with the next Monday off, and then again on Saturday and Sunday July 11 and 12, the weekend before the ASB, with the Festa and Paddack each going on 3 days rest going into the 4 day ASB break. We can add a BP arm to help with the strain, really 2 if we DFA Went for someone who might actually help us, and actually pitch an MLB starter each game the rest of the way until the break. I think the best option is to go with a 4 man rotation and call up Adams as a long reliver, and dump Wentz for either Funderburk or Ohl. This gives us the best chance to compete going into the ASB.

I agree in this sense with both you and DocBauer - try to sign Castro and, if you can't, trade him. I like the idea of 2 years $16-17m, and I think it's as much or more than he could get as a FA in the offseason. I get testing FA if he thinks he can get more but let's make a competitive offer to keep him. We can re-sing him in the offseason but that's a real crapshoot since it only takes one overpaying team to stretch the market. This offseason is a little harder to predict than past years. The CBA expires after the 2026 season There may be a salary cap/harsher luxury tax/strike coming due to declining local TV revenues. I think we may underestimate how Diamond Sports overpaying for regional TV rights kept teams like the Twins afloat. Middle class players like Castro may be more receptive to certainty at a good number rather than take their chances for a great number with the risk of not getting that good number per year or good number of years. There may be some guys looking for 3 years at $8-10m plus this offseason who can't find jobs at that number and wind up on one year, $5-6m deals. . To me the big point is this - Make a decision on the expiring contract vets over the next 30 days. My view is try to keep Castro, Coulombe, Paddack, and Bader and trade the rest. To me, that means at least trying to trade France, Stewart, Vasquez, Topa, and Clemens. If Castro, Paddack, Coloumbe and Bader resist those overtures, test the trade market for them as well. Having said that, don't just trade them for a bucket of balls. This team isn't good enough to keep together just for a hoped for playoff run so at least see what these expiring assets are worth.

Why are we playing Clemens again? Is the occasional home run really worth it?

Agreed. Trading Jax and Duran for prospects, not matter how good, when each has 2+ years of control left only makes sense if you don't intend to compete for the next 3 years. Otherwise, you're trading away one of the hardest things to find and knee capping the 2026 and 2027 teams. I'm more optimistic than that. I would only even think about trading either for controllable MLB starting pitching that can be in the rotation from 2025-2027 and then make Varland the closer. Seems pretty unlikely. OTOH, if we do fall out of contention I would explore the market for Coulombe and Stewart. I know we don't have great replacements, so trading either is a bit of a white flag move. I wouldn't trade them if we are 5 games or more over .500 in late July with Matthews and Lopez coming back. If not, I would at least explore the market unless we are convinced they will be back next year. They might be worth a high ceiling A+ ball or a solid AA type prospect.

Michael Fulmer just got DFA’d by the Cubs. We can get him back and still win the trade! Actually, his stats make him look a heck of a lot better than Joey Wentz, that’s for sure.

I'll repeat what I said in another thread about Castro - either sign him or trade him. He's really the only one of the three where we can say we actually have a replacement in Keaschall. He's having a great year but I think the best way to view him is to average his stats from 2023-2025 (so far) - roughly .256/.340/.410 (.750) when you factor in that this year is only half way over. Add the speed and versatility and he has value. He's probably worth 8m to 10m a year on a 2 or 3 year contract to cover his age 29, 30 and 31 seasons. If he'll sign that, sign him. If not, market him. Wallner is still cheap relative to his production so he isn't available. Larnach could be, but we'd need a strong return for him and that mentioned in the article isn't enough. Besides, we very well may need Larnach to learn 1B for next year when France is gone. Let's be honest, this isn't working and hasn't worked since mid-2024. We need to fish or cut bait on the vets with some value that have expiring contracts and/or at the end of their careers - Castro, France, Bader, Paddack, Stewart, and Coulombe. I would try to re-sign Castro and Bader, the former for his versatility and production, the latter because we need Buxton insurance and don't have anyone else. Keep Paddack only if he'll sign for 1 or 2 years relatively cheap - something like 10m or less a year. The rest you trade IF you can get a decent return. Promote ERod and Funderburk, and once Keaschall and Lewis are back, demote Keirsey and lose Bride and Clemens (he's not a long term piece even if he's ok as the 26th man for now). Frankly, I would give Julien a shot at 1B now that he's hitting again in AAA and try to get an AA ball flier for Clemens if that's doable. Let's at least use this year to figure out next year. To me, that means Festa and SWR get starts until Matthews gets back and then one goes if there aren't any more injuries. If we trade Paddack, all three start until Lopez gets back. Lee, Larnach, Wallner, Lewis, and Keaschall play every day and ERod gets some real run starting in mid to late July. We need to add to the Buxton/Correa core in the field and the Lopez/Ryan core in the rotation. Find out this year if any of these guys can be that add. Don't play ok but not so good vets like France, Paddack, and Clemens unless we're going to commit to them longer term. Let's not chase a few wins by playing vets and wind up in this mediocre middle stage again next year.

This is an interesting exercise because it forces us all to look at the organization as a whole. I would normally be in the camp of "trade the vets with value and play the young(ish), up and coming guys". Unfortunately, I think were already doing that to the extent it is possible by playing Castro, Wallner, Lee, and Larnach every day, and pitching Festa, SWR, and Varland regularly. A review of what we can have in the minors and where they are in their development frankly led me to the conclusion that we are frankly doing almost as much as we can in terms of promoting guys and giving them a shot. That leads to the obvious question – we can blow it up but for who? This is where the continued struggles of Julien, Miranda, and ERod really hurt. They should be the guys taking over for our more fungible players like Bride, Clemens, and Keirsey, but they are either struggling in AAA or hurt. Some of the problems will play themselves out. Bride and Keirsey will be gone as soon as Lewis and Keschall come back from injury. Clemens is one sustained AAA hot streak by either Julien or Miranda away from hitting the DFA wire himself. There is no one to replace Vasquez so that will have to wait until the off-season. I would either re–sign Paddack on a value incentive laden contract or, if we can't do that, trade him if we can get any sort of value for him, assuming Matthews is back by the trade deadline to take his spot in the rotation. So what should we do? I think that starts with recognizing who and where this team is; an average to slightly above average club when all of the primary players are healthy and available but without enough depth to withstand significant injury, particularly to the starting pitching staff. This team went in the tank last year when Joe Ryan got hurt. This team went into the tank this year when Pablo Lopez got hurt. That tells you we cannot withstand an injury to an important starting pitcher. Below is what I would do for the rest of this season. Unfortunately, it's probably not enough and that's because we just don't have enough good players at the AAA level to have a lot of confidence about turning over the roster. I think we need to do at least this much going to the off-season to have some idea of where we are. (1) Make a decision about next year for the 4 key players on expiring contracts – Castro, France, Paddack, and Bader. I would try to sign Castro now and trade him if we cannot re-sign him, keep Bader for the rest of the year and think about re-signing him in the off-season, and trade France. Paddack is a much harder decision because quality starting pitchers even in the #4 hole are so hard to find and he has shown flashes of fitting that definition. I would shop him in late July assuming Matthews is back. (2) Play the players we will need to step up to compete next season and play them almost every day. That's Wallner, Larnach, Lee, Lewis, and Keaschall in the field, Matthews, Festa, SWR, Varland, and Funderburk on the mound. Give ERod some run this year starting in mid July. I don't see another player in AAA ready for that run but if you think there is one, same deal. This also applies to Kaleb Culpepper; if he does well in AA, bring him up in August and see if he can play at the big league level. If these guys perform well and that helps this year, great. If not, take your lumps now to find out what you have. (3) Find out whether Julien and Miranda can be salvaged. Both have one thing going for them that all of our other "prospects" do not; they have had success at the major-league level. Both need to be on the big club in the second half and playing some. My thought is they can be the first base platoon once France is traded. (4) Pitch SWR and Festa every fifth day until Matthews returns. Chances are we will be down a starter due to injury but if not, SWR and Festa are pitching for one spot once Matthews is ready to go. The point is to find out if any or all of those three can actually be rotation pieces next year. I think our biggest problem is that we have been unwilling to pick a direction and have been left in this purgatory of the mediocre middle. I think the direction is obvious. We have to shift to a new core based on the players listed above above plus Buxton, Correa, Jeffers, Duran, and Jax. Essentially every other veteran is fungible. Next season is too late to make the shift. We need to do it for the second half of the season and ride with it. It may be ugly, but it's pretty ugly now and there is little to no hope for improvement. We need plan for next year's roster and not worry about sneaking into the playoffs this year. We just aren't good enough to be contenders.

I hear that, Mike. I’m torn between trying to get better short term and just recognizing this year for what it probably is - a lost cause. If it is you’re right, play the young guys and see what you have. Anybody you would bring up?

How about picking up our old friend Kyle Gibson? He opted out of a minor league deal with the Rays. He was bad at the beginning of the season with Baltimore after being a signee late in spring training, and seems to have gotten it back together in AAA. Last year was 8-8 with a 4.24 ERA in 179 innings for St. Louis. Not great but better than throwing SWA and Festa our there and that's before thinking Ober may need an IL stint. Classic back end innings eater but gives you a chance. I think he's worth a shot given where our pitching is right now.

I am in favor of replacing Bride with a right handed hitter but I just don't think McCusker is that guy. He looked way overmatched in his previous few ABs, admittedly a tough type of of audition and small sample size, and is a detriment on defense. I doubt if he can give us much help. Our previous look suggests that Gaspar probably isn't that guy either. How about Anthony Prato? He's hitting pretty well this year (.299/.428/.418 (.846)) and has been playing SS, 2B, and LF. He's had a high OBP every year since being drafted in 2019 and steals 10 plus bases every year. Not a power guy, but can play multiple positions and could fill in better than McCusker. He's 27 so now is the time to see if he can play and we need somebody. I'd rather see Prato than McCusker at this point. I could see bringing up Gaspar if he could play anywhere but his defense is so bad that he's really unplayable except as a DH unless he can catch. My view - bring up Prato instead of Bride unless you want to bring up Gaspar and play him instead of Vasquez.

Well, we're both guessing here but I can think of two reasons why the presence of that debt influences the salability of the team even without it driving up the effective price. First, if that debt is from operating the Twins, the presence of that level of debt would tell a buyer a lot about the viability of the operation on a cash return basis. In other words, if the Twins are accumulating debt from operations it hard to see who a new buyer wouldn't have to do the same thing. No one wants to pay $1.7 for an asset and also finance it's operations, all in the hope of selling it for a profit later in a market where there is no real possibility of new contract with higher TV revenue, the sport itself isn't growing like other sports are, and it's hard to see another basis why values would rise. The second is the debt service. Assuming debt in a tough interest rate environment raises interest costs and there really doesn't seem to be a lot of reason to assume rates are going to decrease over the next few years given the increasing federal budget deficit. Assuming the debt makes the team more expensive to operate because of the interest payments. What I would really like to know is if the Twins are profitable, beak even, or lose money from operations. I suspect they are at best a break even. It's hard to see how revenue is going to go up. Maybe a new TV deal could help but it's hard to see that being out there. What about attendance? Is there a way to get it regularly above 2 million? If not, it's going to be hard to make money with this team. Minneapolis isn't a fast growing city like Tampa where one could project future attendance growth from simple population growth. It may be that the only way to sell the Twins for 1.7B is as a vanity investment to a multi billionaire looking to be on TV and hob nob with other owners. There just aren't a lot of those guys out there and I don't know that any of them live in Minnesota.

Are you sure this is this right? Generally speaking, any debt is factored into the price when buying assets, i.e.., the seller either pays off the debt from the sales proceeds or the buyer assumption of the debt is part of the price, so the price is $1.275 cash plus $425m in assumed debt. The latter option assumes that the debt is assumable which oftentimes it is not. There is often an acceleration clause which requires that the debt be paid upon the sale of the asset. I don't know the details but I don't think it's a safe assumption that the Pohlads are looking for $1.7B in cash plus the assumption of $425M in debt. If they are, the stated price would be $2.125B and I haven't seen that anywhere. I'm curious if anyone has seen the debt assumption piece explained. You guys are right about one thing, if the Pohlads are looking for $2,125B for the team, this will be a long and bumpy ride.

Good post. I would add Lee to the list of liked players but spot on, particularly the lack of anyone at AAA who can help. Speaking of that, is there anyone who can come in and take over 1b or the DH spot anywhere in the system? I looked at the Saints roster and it looks pretty grim. I don't count the career journey men as options; calling up a 30 year old having a good AAA year isn't going to help. We saw Gaspar already, seems unlikely that he can help. The only ones looking like a prospect is Prato and McCusker and McCusker looked pretty grim in his limited ABs. France is not the answer at 1B; he's hitting the same way he did the last 2 years which caused Seattle to release him. Julien has looked bad lately, same with Miranda. I guess the only hope to help this lineup is to hope that Lewis and Keaschall can hit when they come back. Anybody see anything else?

I'd be ok with trading France and/or Vasquez if you could get anything for them and we had a ready to go replacement just looking for an opportunity. Neither of those 2 will get us much of anything and we don't have a replacement for either. Bader and Castro are guys we should try to re-sign. They bring at least some value and the struggles of Keirsy, Miranda, Julien, et al. tell us we don't have nay ready replacement for either.

This is why I advocate for the Twins to do little at the deadline this year. Deadline deals are great for a team that is one or two pieces away from true contention. This Twins team is not that team. A deadline deal could also be great when a team has a real surplus of quality young MLB players at a position with good prospects who play that same position. That ain't the Twins either. The one thing that might make sense would be to trade prospects for a younger cost controllable starting pitcher like say Edwin Cabrera of Miami. Even then, I wouldn't give up a top 5-7 prospect, maybe 2 in the 10-25 range or 1 in the top 12 and one in the 25-30 range. Probably not enough to get it done. By the way, I also wouldn't trade Paddack. You won't get enough for him to make any difference and it sends the white flag message to a team still on the fringes of contention. Bad look for your existing players and really bad look for the fan base. The psychological damage isn't worth the likely paltry return.

Do you really think this team is good enough to trade a quality prospect or two for a hitter? One would only do that if we thought adding the hitter would make us a potential contender. I just don't see that as a realistic assessment of where this team is or is likely to be in the second half. The idea of trading someone like Culpepper or Prielipp for another teams "blocked prospect" or "hitting surplus" would be bad enough, but trading Duran or Jax makes little sense unless we are getting back established MLB hitting with multiple years of control. That just doesn't seem likely. So what should we do at the trade deadline? I think the answer is pretty simple - nothing or at least very little. Realistically, the Twins are an 80 to 87 win team that needs a solid starting pitcher, a bat that can really hit in the middle of the order, and another relief pitcher to become a 90 win team. The farm system has some decent prospects but it's not like we are training from a huge surplus of talent. We trade those prospects away now and this team is going to be hurting in another couple of years. I would trade that for a realistic chance of the championship, but adding a bat doesn't give this team a realistic chance for a championship. I think the right move is to play this out with what we have. Give guys like Lee, Wallner, and Larnach , and, when ready, Lewis and Keaschall, as many ABs as possible and throw Festa and SWR out there every 5th day, with Matthews joining them in August. I could see trading for decent relief pitcher although our track record of picking up relief help at the deadline is been pretty bad. This team just isn't good enough to be a real contender by adding a bat or two. Let's not deplete the future when it's unlikely to do much for the present.

Good analysis, thanks. Lee's recent hot streak has been great but that's what it is, a hot streak. This tear is nowhere near sustainable. Lee looks kind of like what was projected for him – a high floor/relatively low ceiling every day MLB player. If he could settle in at .275/.325/.425 with 10 – 15 homeruns a year, I think we would all be thrilled. He isn't there yet because he doesn't take enough walks but that may come with age and experience. He's a little limited because he is so slow so he doesn't give you a lot of upside on the base paths no matter how smart a baserunner he is. Still, it's all good. I think he could be a roster mainstay at 2B hitting in the 6 or 7 hole for many years to come.

And to make things worse, that list is a list of the guys they would most likely call up to replace Bride. I'd love to replace Bride with a better player, but who exactly is that? Maybe Prato or Eeles? Man, the AAA cupboard is pretty bare. I think Bride stays until Keaschall is ready to come back.

Undoubtedly some douchebag who bet on a game where he didn't pitch well. I would love to see them track this guy down, have a nice public trial or plea bargain, and make him a guest of the state for a few weeks. Until something like that happens, its just too easy for these morons to hide behind a keyboard and pretend to play God without consequences.

Moot point I guess if Civale is already going to the Pale Hose. Still, we're probably going to need somebody. I think Ober is looking at an IL stint soon to try to get his hip right. The Twins have 28 games left before the ASB break gives them 4 days off July 14-17. That's 5 starts from Ober's spot. May be he tries one more but I think he goes on the IL by at least June 20 to get a month off to get healthy. So who's that somebody? As the article points out, Lewis and Raya have been awful in AAA. McCaughan has been . . . ok?. . . and Dobnak pretty bad. I understand that Trane Baker just came up from AA but his stats there at least look promising. There some guys in AA with good stats, but I don't know anything about them. Do any of you guys think any of them are ready? Short of an overpay trade for Sandy Alcantra, it looks like we're going internal. My guess is McCaughan is going to get a chance unless Baker or Morris is deemed ready. Maybe McCaughan and Adams as an entry/piggyback for that spot? This could get ugly fast. Good thing we're hitting . . .

I agree except that I think this is a mid to high 80s win team - 83-89. There always seems to be a desire to "do something" at the deadline to make the team better, almost regardless of cost or opportunity. Other than trading a couple of 10-20 prospects for a guy like Sandy Alcantra (probably a pipe dream), there isn't likely to be a lot of value out there to get. Besides, we need a #3 or 4 hitter and a consistent #3 or 4 starter, and could use 1 more backend reliever. Those guys are really expensive and often times don't work out like the trade for Tyler Mahle. Getting a Tommy Pham or Taylor Ward doesn't really address the batting need, and pitchers like Tyler Anderson, Merrill Kelly, Aroldis Chapman, and Jake Bird are going to cost a fortune. We just don't have the young player fortune to trade. I see a very quiet deadline for the Twins unless we get a middle inning reliever. If we get that #3 or 4 bat for the second half it's going to be Royce Lewis and/or Luke Keaschall. If it happens, that #3 or 4 starter is going to be David Festa or Zebby Matthews, and the backend bullpen piece is going to be Louie Varland. And you know what, that's the right answer for where this team is right now. We are a solid to good team but need our young guys to take a big step forward to be a contending team. They can't step forward if they don't play. Let's quit looking elsewhere for the pieces we need and overpaying for slightly above average players. Let's play the guys we have and see if they are those pieces. This is the year to find that out, not the year to trade from alleged "surplus" in the hope we can go from 85 wins to 90.

Alcantra is a very interesting idea depending on the price. If I'm the Twins, the top 5 prospects are off the table, as is Soto. After that, I'm open for business. They can have one in the 6-12 range, one in the 13-20 range, plus a throw in of Julien, Prato, Eeles or (maybe) Miranda. I still have hope for Mirnada and I think they dumped Mike Ford to see if Miranda could show enough in AAA to be the 2026 1B on the big club. So a package like Lewis or Raya (but not both), Gonzales or Hill, plus one of the throw-ins. Seems like that could be a win-win.

Alcala threw 40 pitches last night and was taken out with 2 outs in the 8th inning of a blowout game. Given that usage and the way he was taken out you gotta think the Twins might say he has a sore shoulder and put him on IL. Hell, he probably does have a sore shoulder after last night. Probably a sore neck too from line drive whiplash. What do you do with SWR? I would say he's bullpen material for now, replacing Alcala, but then you have a "long man" who just pitched when Festa is starting and we may need a long man. I say Alcala to the IL, SWR down, and one spot is taken by Adams who can come back without waiting 15 days because of Alcala's IL placement. Maybe you elevate one more pitcher (Dobnak or McCaghan? Maybe Morris or Lawyerson?) until the Sunday start. Who's then up to start Sunday against Houston in Houston? I say Morris but it's all a true crapshoot now.

This sounds right except that I think Dobnak is probably #9. There was a lot of talk on the site about trading Paddack before the season so that Festa, SWR, and Matthews could get a "fair chance". Well, be careful what you wish for. They're getting that chance now. Matthews has been okay to good in limited outings, SWR bad and seemingly getting worse, and we'll see about Festa over the next couple of starts. This is why you keep pitching depth. MLB teams have used an average of 11.8 different starting pitchers per season 2015. Some teams have used as many as 16. Even assuming a couple of those guys are "openers", you have to go into every season assuming that you're going to use at least 8 – 10 different starting pitchers for at least a minimum of 5 starts apiece. We are about 40% of the way through the season and we've now used 7 starters. Frankly, that's about right. Life could be worse, we could be the Dodgers. They have already used 13 different starters. I also think the criticism about not having enough of a "pitching pipeline" is way overblown. We have three young pitchers who actually deserve an MLB shot. That is much better than most teams. There is nobody out there that's got 7 or 8 proven competent starters. Nobody, not even the Dodgers. If you are a competent starting pitcher, you are on a major league roster starting for some team. You're not out there as a street free agent or toiling away in AAA. Well, it should be interesting to watch and see how these three guys do, plus a possible chance of seeing Morris, Adams, or even Baker. Hopefully we will get at least one middle to back and starter and one middle to top and starter out of the first three guys. My bet would be Festa in the middle to back end and Matthews more towards the middle to top end with SWR as a long man/spot starter type, but we will see how that goes. The preseason predictions were correct; the Twins were in as good a position as anyone to endure injuries to starting pitching by having some promising young depth. Time to find out how promising these guys really are.