LA Vikes Fan

There are two reasons I think the window gets wider next year. First, I think that Miranda, Jeffers, Lewis, Castro, and Lee at the very least will continue to improve and be stalwarts in the lineup next year. I also have hope that Wallner and LArnach will do the same. I disagree that by age 25 players "are what they are". I think the window for improvement continues to least 27 or 28 and maybe even beyond that. People get better at their job the more they do their job. Second, I also think we're going to see improvement from Ryan, SWR, and Ober in the rotation and a better year from Lopez. I also see a step up in the secondary players as Martin takes over for Margot, Julien and Lee take over for Farmer, and Miranda starts playing every day and slowly eases out Santana (who I think will be back next year). That's not counting Emma, Keaschall, and Keirsey, all of whom could help the Twins in 2025 either as a reserve or in the second half of the season. Overall, I think the team is trending up and has not yet hit the potential of the players we currently have, much less players on their way up. I do agree that he is probably worth Schobel now that I've looked more closely at how he's doing. That of course means he is less likely to be enough for the Blue Jays. My thought would be trading someone outside of the top 10 who is not a pitcher might make some sense given all of the younger players we already have. I'm just not ready to give up any more than that.

Kikuchi would be a decent get, but it all depends on the price. He's not worth anybody in the top ten prospects. IS he worth Corey Lewis, Tanner Schobel, or Andrew Morris? Hard to do that for just 2024, assuming he will sign elsewhere as a FA after 2024. To me, this all depends on how good you think this team is and whether you think they can compete (defined as a deep playoff run) this year. I tend to think this team is good but not good enough to get to the ALCS unless the playoff schedule is very favorable, and there's at least a 30-40% we won't make the playoffs at all. I think the window opens much wider next year as the younger players have more experience. I wouldn't be willing to sacrifice much just for 2024, so I wouldn't be willing to give up much for Kikuchi. My call would be Tyler Anderson of the Angels. He's signed for $13m next year, a palatable sum if you want to keep him and a tradable contract if you don't. He's also a lefty and has better stats this year although inconsistent year to year. The Angels are open for business and need pretty much anything you got to replenish that farm system. A package of two prospects, one in the top 15-20, might do it. I'd love out get Estevez too but I think the price is going to be bid up pretty high on him and he's only a rental.

You're right. According to MLB trade rumors all of the bonuses have been paid out. The acquiring team would only be on the hook for the pro rated portion of his $4m base salary. Sounds like right about $1.5m. Worth a look depending on the prospect price IMHO.

Worth a call to see the price. A prospect outside the top 25 or so might be a worthwhile investment. I would much rather have Flaherty, Crochet, Fedde, Tyler Anderson or Kikuchi, but they may be out of our salary or prospect price range and are going to generate a lot of interest. I like this roster and think they could be a real contender next year. I wouldn't be willing to give a lot to get a starter for this year though. I particularly would not be willing to give up a top 10 or even top 20 prospect for a rental starting pitcher. I suspect that the good ones like Flaherty or Crochet are going to require multiple top 20 prospects, and the lesser types like Kikuchi at least one in the top 10 or top 15. Even Anderson or Fedde is going to cost at least one in the top 20 and maybe more. That's why it's worth calling on Paxton. Same for Cal Quantrill.

That makes sense. At 2.5m, probably not worth taking on for me.

Here's what MLB Trade rumors says about his contract: Paxton, 35, signed with the Dodgers on a complicated one-year deal that pays him a $3MM signing bonus, a $4MM salary, a $2MM roster bonus for making the Opening Day squad and a series of $600K and $1MM bonuses that unlock periodically based on his number of games started. Paxton has made 18 starts this season, which was the last milestone he needed to max out his contract. He’ll receive the full $13MM possible on the deal but also seems likely to finish out the season with another club, one way or another. It looks like they may not have all of his bonuses listed on Sportrac. I suspect that if he really is due a prorated amount of $13 million if claimed, he may pass through without being claimed. Here's is another thought. We have an open spot on Wednesday with Paddack going back on the IL. The Dodgers are bringing back Kershaw and Glasnow, which explains the DFA of Paxton. I wonder if they would be willing to trade him and cover his remaining salary, or at least a portion of it, for a prospect outside of the top 30? I'm not really sure I would make a deal for anything more than that but it might be worth exploring.

The Dodgers just DFA'd James Paxton. 35 year old left hander, 8-2 4,43 ERA, 1.46 WHIP so far this year in 89 innings. 7-5 with a 4.60 ERA, 1.31 WHIP with Boston last year in 96 innings. Hurt in 2020-2022. Not too exciting, but maybe worth signing if he clears waivers. Seems likely since he's hit his incentives to make $13m this year. Think it might be a good depth signing at the pro-rated minimum, Agreed on the need for a reliver, by the way. The bullpen is really only 4 deep, 5 if Stewart comes back. Hard to trust Okert, Theilbar, Funderburk, or Henriquez, and Sands is iffy. Bring on Carlos Estevez!

It would be great if these 3 performed at a high level in the second half, particularly Lopez. Having said that, the Keys to the second half are the proven players performing at a high level - Correa, Buxton, and Lopez. That only gets us there IF at least 3 of the young lineup guys really steeping it up from the group of Lewis, Castro, Wallner, Lee, Jeffers, Julien, and Larnach, while the rest are at least decent, PLUS we get strong second halves from at least 3 of Lopez, Ryan, Ober, and SWR. All possible, maybe even more likely than not, but has to happen if we are going to compete. We can't expect to ride a Kepler, Santana, Margot train and get any place. We've given the younger guys a shot. They now need to show for us to move up.

I couldn’t decide whether to like or hate this. You make good points about the team being fun with a good competitive window. I can’t speak to what’s going on in the Twin Cities economically since I live in Southern California but it is a bit of a surprise that attendance is down. It may just be a timing issue. Now that they’re playing better they may draw much better in the second half. My outside observation is that the issue is probably a combination of the lack of television exposure and poor marketing. TV really drives engagement for casual and younger fans. You see an exciting game on TV and you want to go be part of it. Frankly, that’s not the Twins fault. The Diamond Sports/RSN debacle is a classic case of a a poor management team that could not adapt to a changing market. The trying to hang on in bankruptcy just to squeeze a few bucks is kind of pathetic to watch. It’s being driven bye the big investors and bondholders of a failed enterprise and the Twins are caught in the middle. MLB has been very little help. They’ve got weight, throw it around on behalf of the teams, don’t just sit back and aid investors. Protect your product. As a lawyer it’s hard to watch without getting angry. You do have to blame the team for some pretty poor marketing. First, you don’t come off a good season and announce that you’re cutting payroll. You may wind up doing that but you sure as heck don’t signal it’s coming. Second , do they really limit the giveaways to the first 5000 people? I’ve heard that when I watch the game from MLB TV but it didn’t register. I go to all the different sports here in LA and if there is a giveaway, everybody gets one. It’s not very much money folks. My grandson has a backpack with Lakers pins attached to it. I got those for free, didn’t want them, I gave them to him. Closing off the Upper deck seats - what the hell! If you can’t sell them, give them away to little leagues, kids that get good grades, volunteers, anybody like that. I really do wonder about the Twins marketing department.

I think this is a little harsh regarding Santana. The Twins would have been justly criticized for going into this season with a Miranda/Kirilloff set as the only 1B options. Neither was good in 2023 and both were coming off of injuries. I think Santana has been much better than expected and his bat has really helped lengthen the lineup in those critical 5-7 spots. Also, his presence has allowed the Twins to bring Mirnada along at a pace that has really worked. I could actually see him back next year if he doesn't fall off of the proverbial age cliff in the second half of the season. You're dead on regarding Margot. He simply isn't valuable enough as a short side platoon hitter who can't hit righties at all and whose defense is cromulent at best (tip of the cap to Cody) in the corners and brutal in CF. What saves that deal is that Doncon has been better than expected. I would love to see them phase Margot out in the second half for Martin but I think that will be seen as too risky when we're in contention. Still, we need to know if that trade off will be workable next season since Margot is unlikely to be back.

I would say it's beyond merely cromulent. Perhaps even commendable or, dare I say it, sublime.

Vasquez is "perfectly cromulent" ?! Impressive vocabulary. I'm going to try to incorporate that into a sentence today. Many thanks for the tip.

Thanks for the analysis, Nick. I think you're pretty spot on. That raises two questions, (1) what do we need to do to catch Cleveland and (2) how much of an advantage is it to being a division winner. Look, health is the factor we can't evaluate because significant injuries to either team would make a big difference. That also applies to Kansas City. But assuming equal health luck, the answer to first question is easy. The Starting rotation is good but not great and we have very little depth behind the current starting five. We have now seen Varland and Festa start. Neither is ready to make a significant contribution this year. First, we need another starting pitcher and there are a couple out there who should be in our price range from both the salary and prospect perspective that would help – Tyler Anderson of the Angels, Erick Fedde of the White Sox, and Cal Quantrill of the Rockies. I would love to get someone like Evaldi, Flaherty, or even Kikuchi, but I just think the cost will be too high. Second, we need one more late inning reliever from the left side. If we can even even get either one of Stewrt or Topa back we have the right side covered. We could really use a guy like Tanner Scott, Jake Deikman, or Aroldis Chapman, but I've even take a guy like Andrew Chafin or Matt Moore. Alternatively, we could get a high-end gas guy from the right side and just drop a lefty and Carlos Estevez is available. We don't need a hitter badly enough to trade prospects of any value. The Lineup is relatively deep and can even survive some injuries. I really hope we are talking to the Angels every day about trying to get Tyler Anderson and/or Carlos Estevez. They need young players in the worst way and we can probably get one or both of those guys without giving up any of our top 10 prospects, maybe even not anyone in the top 15. How much of an advantage would be to win the division? It could be HUGE. I think it's a fair assumption that the winner of the AL Central will be the number two seed in the AL and get a bye in the first round. The number two seed is likely to get the winner of the AL West in the second round if that team can take out the number six seed, probably Boston or Kansas City. That means the an ALDS matchup with either Houston or Seattle, most likely Houston. That's a team we can beat. We then only have to play the surviving team from Baltimore, Cleveland, or the Yankees in the ALCS. In other words, we can avoid two of the three teams that are toughest to beat, and only have to play one of Baltimore, New York, and Cleveland to make the WS rather than two of them in two consecutive separate series. Winning the division is HUGE this year for our chances of actually having all deep playoff run. I don't think Cleveland wins 100 or 101 games which is their current pace. I think it went much closer to 93 to 95 games, which means they go something like 37 – 30 or 35 – 32 the rest of the way. The Twins need to go 41-25 to win 95, 39-27 to win 93. I think they can do that with the team they have, I think the chances are actually pretty good if they add another quality starting pitcher and a quality reliever, and have relatively good health.

According to Tankathon.com, Cleveland has the 2nd toughest schedule the rest of the way with their opponents' winning percentage of 523. The Twins schedule is no slouch though - the 7th toughest with an opponents winning percentage of .511. KC is 13th at .505, the Tighty Whitey's 14th at .503, and Detroit is 22nd at .492. Why all 3 above .500? Because the AL Central is one of the best divisions in baseball and they have to play each other. What?!!! How did that happen? You can really see it when you look at the list. The teams with the easiest schedules the rest of the way are mostly in the AL West, the easiest division in baseball, and then the NL West, probably the second easiest. It's also interesting that the AL East teams tend to have easier schedules. That suggests that maybe they paid their tougher out of division games already. Anyway, the Twins schedule is easier than the Guardians but not that much easier.

Thanks, and I agree with a lot of this. There is no question that interest amongst the 20 and 30 somethings is down, although I have three sons in their early 30s and two of them were quite avid baseball fans. Unfortunately for them, their team is the Angels. I do understand that the lack of baseball on TV is a real problem for the marginal fan engagement. It may be there are simply more people in Southern California, a larger Hispanic community to whom baseball is the number one sport after soccer, and those demographic factors make a huge difference. Also, both the Dodgers and the Angels are smart in that they get Japanese and Korean players, two huge communities in the LA area. I find it very hard to understand why older people would be afraid of Minneapolis. I live in LA and Dodger Stadium is very close to downtown and some other not so savory areas. The local news strongly believes in the old adage that "if it bleeds it, it leads", so we see all kinds of interesting stuff on TV every day. Minneapolis seems like a cakewalk by comparison. Is the area around the stadium just that bad so people don't want to walk through it? The difference may be that Dodger Stadium has its own parking lots so you drive through some "interesting" parts of town but you park outside those areas.

I do find this interesting. I live in LA and the Dodgers sell 2.5m plus season tickets, get 3.7m in attendance, and could sell more, The Angels aren't far behind and they regularly stink. Both teams relentlessly market - coaching clinics, players out in the community, TV commercials, bobble head days, giveaways, deals with the local little leagues, tickets for the disadvantaged, t-shirt giveaways, etc. They drive engagement even though their TV situation is also messed up and not available except on cable and not on all systems. The Dodgers also have some disadvantages beause the stadium is old and outdated, the parking stinks, the tickets are expensive, there is little to no way to get there on public transportation, and it's a hassle to go to the game with the traffic and the parking. Add to that the other summertime options in LA with the beaches, mountains, weekend posts in driving distance, etc. and it's a tough marketplace. Yes, the Southern Cal area is doing well economically but I haven't heard that the Twins Cities is suffering. Maybe I'm wrong there. We all should understand that the days when sports could market themselves just by holding the games are long over. That is particularly true for baseball. The Twins need to push the product and push it hard to be successful. Are they not doing that?

I don't live in MN any more and this struck a chord with me. Why is attendance down? I get the frustration with ownership but it turns out that most of the moves are defensible, with, the possible exception of not retaining Sonny Gray since Polanco has been a complete bust in Seattle. More importantly, the team has done a great job integrating young, exciting players into the lineup and the team plays a fun to watch brand of baseball. I also get that they aren't available on TV so maybe that's driving less engagement by the occasional fan, but it shouldn't be impacting the hard core base. Maybe the answer is that the base just isn't big enough. This year's team is fun, and next year's opening day lineup is likely to include a few vets with Jeffers, Lewis, Lee, Miranda, Larnach and/or Wallner, and Martin all playing significant roles. , The rotation has 4 guys under 30, and we have a closer who throws 100 plus mph. This team seems like a good entertainment product worth watching in person. It also seems like a team worth emotional investment since they are likely to be competitive for the next few years. Put this team in Anaheim and they would draw 3 million easy. This a conundrum to those of us not living in MN. Hopefully this will change over the next month and into next year or the team will slide backward.

Agreed. Love the idea Ted, and applaud your creativity but the Angels aren't trading Detmer for Kirlloff. Detmer is far more valuable as a hard throwing controllable LH starter with at least some early success to go with this year's step back. . We would have to add a quality prospect like Maatthews, Corey Lewis or Culppeper to make the deal happen. Would love to see the trade made because controllable starting pitching is so valuable and we would would be trading from a position of surplus (LH OF/1B), but just don't see it.

Good to hear. He may the trade chip this year with the way Lee, Lewis, and Miranda are playing above him and Keaschall and Schobel below him. He may be the surplus to trade from and possibly get us a solid starting pitcher. Even better, package him with a lower minors guy with upside and get a starter controllable beyond 2024. Like Julien but it's hard to see where he plays in the next few unless there's another bad injury.

I agree that Plan A is to get a #2 or good #3 starter. We can then move Paddack to the BP for the rest of the year and even have Varland available for Bp duty. Solves both problems. The issue of course is prospect cost and salary. Flaherty and Kikuchi are within reason on salary, as is Tyler Anderson, but are you willing to give up a Julien, Keaschall, Corey Lewis, Andrew Morris type to get them? Tough to swallow and that's probably the price depending on which one you want. We should absolutely be trying for this while moving forward with what I think should be Plan B - A shutdown bullpen. Go after a rental reliever like Estevez, Yates, Tanner Scott, Erceg or even Michael Kopech. Think about adding a secondary bullpen piece like Chafin or Matt Moore. All should be available for a prospect outside the top 10, the latter two for a prospect outside the top 25. By playoff time, you have the added reliever(s), Stewart, Paddack, SWR, and maybe Topa and/or Varland in the pen instead of Funderburk and Okert, with a 4 man rotation and 8-9 man bullpen. You can limit starter innings to 2 times through the order and have the BP depth to stay strong. Hopefully we are looking at one or the other approach.

Agree, guys toxic. Huge PR downside for signing him, even worse if he doesn’t perform. Very little upside because even if he plays well, your the team that signs a guy accused off abusing unconscious women. He’s toast.

Vasquez is the DH so they can replace him with a LH hitter when we get into the bullpen. Better than replacing Jeffers. BTW, last 4 games Vasquez is .255/.278/.451 (.729), Kepler .255/.291/.294 (.585), Larnach .173/.271/.346(.617). Maybe Vasquez is the right choice.

Catching Cleveland is the playoff key IMHO. The Twins can go somewhere in the playoffs if we can win the AL Central and get the number two seed. Then, we need to hope that the number three seed AL West division Champion, Seattle or Houston, beats their wildcard opponent. That would put us against either Seattle or Houston with home-field advantage in the at ALDS. Win there, and all of our sudden were in the ALCS against one of Baltimore, Cleveland, or the Yankees. We would have a chance to win one series against those three teams, but not more than one. The baseball playoffs are frankly kind of getting like the NFL playoffs. Seeding is key because it really determines who you play and who you play is critical on whether you have a chance to advance. Love the way the Twins are playing this year, but I just don't see them getting to the World Series as a wildcard having to beat the Yankees in the wildcard, then Cleveland or Baltimore in the ALDS, and then Cleveland or Baltimore in the ALCS. Catch Cleveland, win the division with a better record than the AL West winner, and all of a sudden there is a path to the World Series were you only have to beat Houston or Seattle, and then one of Baltimore, Cleveland, or the Yankees in one series. That we can do. Hey, a guy can dream, right?

Agree with everything you say except that I think to get to the ALCS the Twins need to win the AL Central and get the #2 seed. That way they would get the AL West winner (Seattle or Houston) if they beat the wild card in the ALDS round. More importantly, they avoid Cleveland, Baltimore, and the Yankees until the ALCS. To do that I think they will need to win 95-97 games. That means going 44-25 or 42-27 the rest of the way. That's a 60-63% winning percentage. It's possible if they don't have any more major injuries.

The issue is at the top. Ryan, Ober, and SWR are actually pretty competent 2-4 guys in a playoff rotation IF they continue to pitch as they are now. The issue is who can match up against a true #1 like Gerrit Cole, Corbin Burnes, or even a 2024 Seth Lugo, Luis Castillo, or a healthy Verlander. The playoff rotation is a good as Pablo Lopez pitches. I think the rest actually works. Ryan has been a strong #2 this year. He faded last season, but he was hurt. Ober has made a big step up so far this year. If they continue like this, they can be the #2 and #3 guys. Almost all #4 guys are crapshoots in the playoffs and I like what we've seen so far from SWR. But Pablo, not happening right now. He's the key. Last year's second half and playoff Pablo would be good enough. By the way, Cleveland has the same problem, No established #1.