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LA Vikes Fan

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  1. LA Vikes Fan
    I agree here. I guess I can see having Abel make one AAA start just so the current staff can see him up close or try to tweak on his delivery. Beyond that though, he needs to be making 8-10 MLB starts this season. There is plenty of room with Lopez still at least weeks away, if coming back at all this season, and Festa still out. By the way, it just occurred to me that the reason he has been assigned to St. Paul is that we need to clear space for him on the 26 man roster by making trades today. I would like to see Abel starting at our next opportunity which, I think, is next Tuesday in Detroit. I'm assuming that Ober starts Saturday, with Ryan Friday and SWR Sunday. Monday in Detroit would line up perfectly for Matthews, but then Tuesday is an open date for the rotation with Ryan lined up for Wednesday. Let's give Abel the start next Tuesday and see what we got.
  2. LA Vikes Fan
    SD doesn't have much pitching in the minors. Mason was better than Duran last year and has 4 years of control remaining after this year. Duran is better this year and has 2 years of control left after this year. Pretty even, although arguably Mason is better than Duran overall. JP Sears is Paddack plus, so the As gave up more than the Twins did. The As got the better headline prospect, looks like the Twins got the better secondary prospect although we'll have to see. Looks pretty similar although nuanced. Hard to see a real basis for claiming the Twins got fleeced or outplayed.
  3. LA Vikes Fan
    Here's something interesting. If you survey the current landscape after the trades so far, who is the best relief pitcher on the market? I think number one is Griffin Jax, and Brock Stewart and Danny Cloumbe are also in the top 10 available and maybe the top 5. There are some teams still looking for relief help and I would have to think they are burning up the phone lines to Minnesota to see if they can get Jax and/or Coloumbe, with Stewart as a fallback. There may be an opportunity to really sell high on these guys. Maybe that was the brilliant strategy all along. Sell Duran early, which panics teams like the Mets and Padres to make their deals early, and then leaves the Twins holding the best available relief assets for the teams left without a chair. The Dodgers, Cubs, Tigers, Yankees, Mariners, Rangers, and Blue Jays are all still looking for relief help. Maybe we can get that blocked first baseman or outfielder from Chicago, Long or Cassie, or maybe even Harry Ford plus from Seattle for Jax +1 of the other two. Hey, if were going to do a rebuild we may as well go for it. I think Coloumbe is a lock to be traded today, and the odds on Jax or Stewart going is about 65%. I think the chances that all three are traded are at least 50-50. Could be an interesting day
  4. LA Vikes Fan
    Not sure I agree. As gave up Miller and a decent starter in J.P. Sears (think A little better than Paddack). They got a really good prospect in Leo De Vries plus 3 unnamed pitchers, probably lottery tickets or AA guys that project as middle relievers. SD has no good pitching prospects. DeVries is 18, is a better prospect than the 19 year old Tait and both have the 3 years away kind of problem. Our second player in Abel is likely much better than any of the pitching prospects going with DeVries. Duran and Mason are close in value and the As threw in a 4th starter type. I would say the returns are similar at least adn the Twins might have gotten a little more.
  5. LA Vikes Fan
    FWIW, the writers at the Athletic give both the Twins and the Phillies a B+ to an A depending on which of the three you like. The consensus is that it's a good deal for both sides and that the Phillies basically paid sticker price for Duran. The depressing part of this is not the trade or the return, it's how far this team has fallen from possible contender basically engaging in a rebuild. This trade makes a lot of sense if you don't have the horses to contend for a year or two. I was kind of hoping that we did
  6. LA Vikes Fan
    Of course he does. The only sports fans in America that are more delusional than the fans in Philadelphia are the fans in Chicago. The Philly fans still think that "the process" for the 76ers is going to lead to a championship. I got to admit though, the Eagles are damn good and it looks like they're going to be damn good again this year.
  7. LA Vikes Fan
    You're right about that. The Twins got much more for Duran than the Giants did for Tyler Rogers.
  8. LA Vikes Fan
    Thanks. Seems like a fair evaluation with the Phillies at an A- and the Twins at a B+. The difference is that Philly got a guy that will help them now and you have to project the prospects helping the Twins. We will just have to see.
  9. LA Vikes Fan
    I would slightly differ. Abel will be in the rotation this year, probably starting within a couple of weeks if not right away. Keaschall will be playing every day this year, also probably starting within a couple of weeks if not right away. . Culpepper may make the team next year; more likely starts out in AAA while we wait to see if Brooks Lee is a major-league player. I can see Culpepper up by mid-season next year and maybe earlier if someone gets hurt. Tate is farther away, probably at least three years given that he's all of 19 years old, but he's a Catcher which is something we desperately need and which is much harder to find. I think the comparison works and I think we got a couple valuable guys in this trade. So even if I would not have traded Duran, and I would not have done so, hard to complain a lot about the return. I will tell you this though, I'm a little irritated that they decided on the full rebuild approach which is what the signals to me. I would have brought in a new manager to see if that was the problem first and then, if the results didn't get better, made these big moves in the off-season. But apparently that's not what they're going to do. I do expect Castro, Bader, Stewart, and probably Jax to follow Duran out the door. I would also not be surprised to see Correa in Houston, Vasquez in San Diego, and France on the street looking for work. We talked about a "soft sell". That's not what it looks like we're getting. This looks like the start of a hard sell/tear down of the roster.
  10. LA Vikes Fan
    That's a little misleading. Abel is 7-2 with a 2.31 ERA in AAA this year with 81 SOs in 74 innings and a 1.16 Whip. He's had his first 25 big league innings this year where he's 2-2. 5.04 ERA, 21 SOs and a 1.36 Whip. In other words, dominant in AAA this year and not a bad start for his first shot in the Bigs. Oh, by the way, he's all of 23 years old and was the 15th pick in the 202 draft. And he's the #2 guy we got. Tait is the headliner and he has a 55 FV, same as Emmanuel Rodriguez, Luke Keaschall, and Kaelen Culpepper. These two guys are the number 4 and 6 prospects on the Phillies top 20 and both were in the MLB top 100 before the draft - Tait at 56, Abel at 92. For reference, Walter Jenkins was 15, Emma 40, Keaschall 42, and Culpepper 82. They wanted 2 top 100 guys and got them. This return is essentially Keaschall and Culpepper. Look, I would not have traded Duran for reasons I've stated in other threads. If you do though, the idea that this is a paltry return or that Falvey got fleeced is a little over the top. You can argue about the wisdom of trading Duran for two prospects but if you do a mid-season trade that's what you get; prospects. I just wonder who is going to close for the rest of 2025 because let's face it, Jax sucks at closing. Actually wouldn't surprise me if Jax goes too before the deadline.
  11. LA Vikes Fan
    This really is the question that makes this hard to gauge. If I thought that by saving Correa's $30 million plus the next three years, the team would reinvest that money in things like keeping arbitration raise eligible players, signing Joe Ryan to a longer-term deal, and getting a decent free agent, plus getting a 40 FV kind of prospect from Houston, I'm all in favor. If, on the other hand, if current ownership just pockets the money, I say screw current ownership and let's keep Correa. How I react to this kind of depends on what I think likely to happen in the future, an analysis that is almost impossible with the team for sale and a totally unknown prospective buyer working on completing a deal. I'm an optimist by nature. I say if the Astros don't require us to retain much money that would hamper moves in the future and are willing to part with a roughly 40 FV prospect, trade Correa. It frees up significant payroll space for a new owner to make a splash by signing Joe Ryan to a long-term deal and/or picking up a free agent hitter in the off-season. It also gives us a chance to find out if Brooks Lee and/or Culpepper can be a long-term shortstop over the next 60 games. My optimistic nature is that a new owner will want to win and so will want to make a bit of a splash while taking over, so he will spend the savings by retaining Ryan and picking up a solid free-agent bat in the 15 – $20 million a year range, assuming such a animal exists. That's a win.
  12. LA Vikes Fan
    I must not have been clear. What I took from your post is that the Twins could have gotten a better return for Paddack had they not made Detroit take Dobnak, leading to a conclusion that ownership's primary concern is offloading payroll, not making the organization/team better in the future. I disagree with that conclusion at least based on this trade. I think the trade does make the team better in the future because I think Jimenez is actually a legitimate prospect at a difficult position to fill. As for the addition of Dobnak, I do tend to agree that Detroit took him in order to make the deal although I did read on one site that Dobnak was the "sweetener" the Twins threw in to get a better prospect. I think that guy is smoking crack, but I don't think we got a lesser player because Dobnak is part of the deal. I think we got a better than fair return for 10 – 12 starts of Chris Paddack. To me, Dobnak or no Dobnak is pretty much irrelevant.
  13. LA Vikes Fan
    Interesting that you would call that point "inarguable" when all of the grading sites seem to give the Twins the better grade on the deal. I'm not sure I'm buying your premise here. It actually looks to me like the FO may a good deal getting a solid prospect for a nothing burger pitcher whos was gone in 60 games any way. Will this move the needle soon? No. Is it better than having Paddack and Dobnak for the rest of 2025 and then watching Paddack go elsewhere while Dobnak retires? Absolutely. Sounds like a deal worth doing. I'm not a big fan of the FO and a big critic of ownership but I have to tell you that I don't think this deal is the hill to die on.
  14. LA Vikes Fan
    There are reports out today that Houston is looking at trading for Correa with Paredes likely out for an extended period and perhaps for the season. Who knows if this is true, but what would/could we get for Correa? Should we do a deal? I would consider doing this IF we can get a solid prospect in return, something like a top 15-25 in the Houston system. According to MLB.com, that would mean a 40 FV guy like Jose Fluery, Caden Powell, or James Hicks. Probably a good future reliever or average plus regular type if things work out. Would you do it? Would you if you "knew" that the money would be repositioned this off season for one or two solid players?
  15. LA Vikes Fan
    How about Houston? Several reports out today that Houston is looking at trading for Correa with Paredes likely out for an extended period and perhaps for the season. Who knows if this is true, but what would/could we get for Correa?
  16. LA Vikes Fan
    I disagree. Assuming the offered packages are similar, trade Jax and keep Duran, even if he will be more expensive. Why? I start with the premise that the Twins can and should be contenders in 2026 and/or 2027. Duran is something every contending team must have - a reliable closer. Jax, while a strong late inning reliever, is most definitely NOT a closer. He cannot replace Duran. Conversely, Varland and Stewart can replace Jax, leaving the bullpen hole in a less highly leveraged position. Why do I say Jax is not a closer? Jax is 80 for 101 in hold or save opportunities from 2022-2024, 100 for 125 if we include YTD in 2025 (20 holds, 0-5 in save opportunities). 80%. I asked ChatGPT what was considered a good save percentage in MLB. The answer that came back - 88% or higher. Other websites said 85% or better. Doing the same analysis on Duran, he's 100-110 since 2022 (his first year), for 91%. Going strictly to saves, Duran is 74 for 83 (89%), both significantly better than Jax IMHO. If you're going to trade one, trade Jax. We will miss Duran more than we will miss Jax. Why? Because Duran is a closer and Jax is not. CLosers are hard ot find and even harder to replace when you have a good one.
  17. LA Vikes Fan
    This is what I would do. Keep Duran and Ryan. Trade Jax assuming you can get a top 100 prospect plus a top 150, which is what the "experts" are projecting. Trade Stewart if you can get a solid return. I think we're close enough to contending in the next 2 years to keep Duran and Ryan, but if I'm wrong and we're a sub-.500 team at this time next season they can still be traded for essentially the same return they would get now assuming continued performance and no major injury. If we trade Jax and Stewart, give Prielipp and Baker a shot not Tonkin or Erasmo Ramirez. This year is about finding out what we have for next year.
  18. LA Vikes Fan
    I agree and we see the same thing in Jax. There's something about closing out games - some guys can do it and some just can't. Jax is a great reliever in the late innings but turns into a pumpkin when asked to close (0-5 this year). I put out a lot of stats that show this in another thread so I won't bore everyone by repeating them here. I think the only way to find out if Varland can close is to let him close. Give him opportunity. For example, Duran has pitched the last 2 nights. If we can get a lead going into the 9th today, Varland should close. Try to find him 10 plus closing opportunities the rest of the season and live with the inevitable hiccups along the way (It might not be that hard if Jax is traded). Let's know the answer to this question going into next year. This is what the rest of 2025 is for - finding out what we have for 2026.
  19. LA Vikes Fan
    The soft sell is starting. The Athletic is reporting that the Twins are trading Paddack to Detroit for a yet unnamed minor league player.
  20. LA Vikes Fan
    You may be right on Eeles, but I would like to find out and do it this year. I'm not with you on trading Duran. Closers are hard to find and we should keep him if we think we can compete in 2026 or 2027. I think we can. Jax should be available. I agree that we should see Sabato. Maybe up with Julien and s a 1B/DH tandem? That would mean trading France, no huge loss longer term, and limit Clemens playing time. Clemens is a fun story but he's a 29 year old having his first taste of any sort of success at the MLB level and he's hitting all of .216 with a .288 OBP. The .7
  21. LA Vikes Fan
    You may be right on Eeles, but I would like to find out and do it this year. I'm not with you on trading Duran. Closers are hard to find and we should keep him if we think we can compete in 2026 or 2027. I think we can. I agree that we should see Sabato. Maybe up with Julien and s a 1B/DH tandem? That would mean trading France, no huge loss longer term, and limit Clemens' playing time. Clemens is a fun story but he's a 29 year old having his first taste of any sort of success at the MLB level and he's hitting all of .216 with a .288 OBP. The .785 OPS is nice but do we really think he's going to continue to his a HR every 14 ABs? Let's see if Julien or Sabato have anything to offer going forward and we can play Clemens off the bench.
  22. LA Vikes Fan
    I think the "light sell" is the way to go. Sell the guys on expiring contracts if you can get any value, even if it's A or A+ ball guys. Test the market for Jax and Larnach and trade them if there is real value there. I'm off of Castro - good UTL on a good team playing 3-4 days a week, mediocre every day player on a bad team. Use the room created to call up Keaschall, Martin, Eeles, Julien (and Sabato if you have room), and give them some playing time. Try Ohl in the bullpen. Baker as a long man or 5th starter. See what you have for 20026-2027. Do not replace the traded guys with Tonkin, Erasmo Ramirez, Dobnak, etc. They aren't any more part of the medium or long term plan than the guys you trade. I would think about a re-set in AAA for Lee if needed to give Eeles a shot and there is no reason I can see why Keirsey is on this team instead of Martin or Eeles.
  23. LA Vikes Fan
    Agreed. I think we go overboard condemning these 2022 moves. It looks like Steer may not make it in Cincy, he's the "weak spot" they are trying to upgrade at the deadline. CES is doing ok but not great in AAA. Really the only loss was trading Cano for Jorge Lopez. That one should remind us that trading for a failed starter who's had 1/2 of a good season in the bullpen is incredibly risky and probably shouldn't be done.
  24. LA Vikes Fan
    Thanks, Nick. Very good synopsis. I am a little troubled that the projected return for Castro, Coloumbe, and Bader is so minimal. I'm hoping for a little more but I suspect that you're right. I go back to what I blogged 10 days ago - trade all of the expiring contracts. Those players are of no value to us when the WS ends and their contracts expire and their value for the rest of this season is becoming more and more irrelevant given we stink. I wanted to re-sign Castro but I now see him as a great UTL on a contending team and a mediocre starter on a mediocre team. We are the latter, not the former. I'm also now persuaded to trade Jax if we can get the kind of return suggested, not because I don't like Jax as a player but because we need talent and he's most likely to get it. So in sum, on August 1: Gone for real value if there, if not keep - Jax and Larnach. Gone if you can get any value- Castro, Bader, Coloumbe, Paddack, France, Stewart, Vasquez. Replaced by for rest of 2025 (in order) - Hitters: Keaschall. Martin, Julien, Eeles, Sabato. Pitchers: Ober (back from IL), Ohl, Trent Baker, Tonkin. Add Gaspar or Noah Cardenas if you trade Vasquez. Replaced to see talent whether or not trades made - Eeles for Lee, Martin for Kiersey Do NOT Trade - Duran, Lopez, Ryan, Jeffers. This is the way to see what we have for 2026 play during the rest of 2025. Then a new FO can decide which way to go in the offseason, go for it by adding FA MLB talent, stay the course with what you have, or tear it all down for a rebuild. The ownership situation is hopefully resolved by then so you should have things in place to start a new era.
  25. LA Vikes Fan
    Well, now that we are 9 games post ASB with a record of 3-6, I think the pathway is even more clear. Trade all of the expiring contracts for prospects unless you intend to re-sign Bader. Frankly, the luster has worn off of Castro for me and I would trade him without hesitation for a decent prospect. Castro is a great UTL on a good team playing 3-4 days a week; he is mediocre every day player on a bad team. Guess what he's doing for us? The rest of them are not back next year so get what you can for them now. This recent stretch of bad play also puts me solidly in the trade Jax camp. Maybe you can get a top 100 prospect for him, maybe that, a 150ish type in AA, and a blocked guy in AAA for him and Castro together. No real reason to keep him this year and I think he play goes down from here. I'm still very much in the don't trade Duran group and absolutely don't trade Ryan camp. You have to have good bones for a soft rebuild. Those two are part of those bones. Do not trade them.
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