LA Vikes Fan

No one is saying that Waller is no good, at least I'm not. But you can't cherry pick the stats either. Waller has struck out 79 times in 240 AAA plate appearances, almost exactly a 33% strikeout rate in AAA. The strikeout rate was over 50% in MLB before he was sent down. Waller was bad in the playoffs last year, bad in Spring Training, and bad in April. He was bad when he first got to AAA for about three weeks. He is definitely been hitting better over the last three weeks after having that very slow start in AAA. Still, the strikeout rate has to improve the before he can return to the MLB level absent a need to bring them up as an injury replacement. I think Wallner has a chance to be back with the Twins after the All Star break if he continues to hit like this. He is not the first call up though. Brooks Lee is hitting better, striking out less, and fielding better; he is just playing better overall. He is the next call up from AAA on the hitting side. It doesn't matter whether you call up an infielder or an outfielder because Castro can play either in the grass or on the dirt. That gives the Twins the luxury of calling up the best player next and that's Brooks Lee. Walter could be back but he's going to need to show improvement in the strikeout rate and continue to hit for an extended period before he's going to get another shot IMO. He was very bad for an extended period so we shouldn't just have him jump up back into the majors absent showing that he solved his problems for an extended period.

This may be recency bias, but I've soured on the idea of trading Lee at all. I'd rather he was up with the major-league club. I'm starting to think he may be thee hitter we need to pair with Lewis.

Lee up, Kepler to the IL, Castro becomes and OF. Just can't buy Wallner yet when he's striking out 33% of the time at AAA.

Agreed, the bandana is bad. And Bald at 25? Raises some real questions.

I agree with all that I would give him a call now if Kepler is going to be down for a few days, and it looks like he will. I say bring up Lee for a look and have him play 2B pretty much every day while Kepler is on the IL. Castro can play LF with Martin or Larnach in RF. Castro's versatility is such that we don't have to call up an outfielder; let's call up the guy who looks like he has the best chance of being successful at the MLB level. I think that now that's Lee.

I agree with that approach jorgenswest, I'm just not in complete agreement on who should get that look. We need another starting pitcher, a middle of the order bat, and a late inning reliever. I think the three key players to get an extended run at the MLB level are Brooks Lee and Louie Varland (first in the rotation, then the bullpen), with Festa getting at least a 2 to 3 start look in the rotation. Not only that, I think the opportunity to do so is here without disrupting clubhouse chemistry by releasing or a DFA of someone. Kepler had neck spasms in last night's game and bunted his last time up because he couldn't swing the bat. That doesn't seem like something that will clear in a day or two, more like at least a week. He's slumping as well. I would put him on the 10 day IL right now and call up Lee. I know Lee is an infielder not an outfielder, but the good news is Castro becomes the regular RF for now with Martin the primary LF, and Larnach and Margot in reserve or platoon roles. Also, Lee is a switch hitter so he replaces the left-handed bat against right-handed pitching. I say we bring up Lee and essentially give him the 2B role almost every day with Farmer playing only against left-handed pitching. On the pitching side, I would call up Varland and find a good reason to put Paddack on the 15 day IL after his start this weekend in Oakland. He's going to need the rest at some point this season and he looks like he's out of gas for now. Give Varland two or three starts and then keep him in the bullpen at the MLB level. I would also try to find a way to shoehorn in two or three starts for Festa. The idea is that when we get to mid July, we have a sense for whether we have internal options that will fill any of our needs before paying inflated prices at the midseason trade market. What about Wallner and Julien, you ask? Unfortunately, neither has shown enough in AAA to really get another shot yet. Wallner has hit well lately but against the bad pitching staffs in that league. The problem with projecting is that in AAA they play an entire week against the same team so stats get inflated against bad teams, and even against good teams you see the same relievers multiple times. It's easier to go on a hot streak in AAA. If Wallner can keep it up when they start playing the better pitching staffs, then maybe it's worth a shot. Julien has not yet had that hot streak. I think were at least three weeks to a month away from knowing whether it's worth giving either player a shot to see if they are the answer to our questions.

This is a little harsh, but only a little. I can see why Okert stays as the 7th or 8th arm in the bullpen, Margot as a RH platoon bat v. LH pitching/5th OF, Vasquez as a backup C, and even Farmer as the 26th guy. There is absolutely no reason for AJckson to be allowed to fail at the MLB level again. I feel a little pang saying this, but Thielbar is either hurt or cooked. in weither evnt, he can't stay. Moves to make: Funderburk up, Thielbar to the IL. Wittgren, Boushley, or Blewitt up, Jackson back on the DFA train. And with Kepler removing himself from the game and in a big slump anyway, Lee up, Kepler to the Il (Combo of Castro/Farmer/Lee plays 2B, Martin plays 4-5 days a week in LF and CF).

Interesting lineup. Martin at 2B, Farmer at SS, Miranda at 3B, Larnach in LF, Lewis at DH. Days off for Correa and Castro. Basically no Margot this series. Ground balls might be interesting today. Almost looks like they're trying a couple of things in anticipation of a potential roster move - can Farmer still play SS? Can Martin be a viable answer at 2B? Answering those two questions might be important. If Farmer can play SS, are the Dodgers interested in him as their backup SS/2B while Betts is out? If Martin can play 2B, can Castro be a super utility and can we open up innings at DH or in LF for Wallner? All good things to know.

This sounds like the plan. The Twins really don't have a backup SS right now. Castro is more of a "break glass in case of emergency" SS and is better suited at 2B, 3B, or in the OF. Lee seems like the logical replacement for Farmer on the roster. The hard part is if he replaces Farmer, will he play every day at 2B? Lee is a much better hitter against RH pitching so far in AAA. Now Castro is a much better hitter this year against LH pitching, although the reverse was true in 2023. So, the move would be to call up Lee, have him start at 2B against RH pitching, with Castro at 2B against Left handers. He would also be the backup SS. That means he should play SS in the Minors. Easier to play 2B after SS than the other way around.

It looks like Wallner has turned a corner, but I don't think you shoehorn him on the roster for 2 reasons. First, he wasn't just of to a slow start in April. He was awful in the 2023 playoffs, very bad in Spring Training, and beyond horrendous in 2024 at the MLB level. He then stunk in AAA for a month before getting hot. It's great that he's coming around in AAA, but let's see it for 6 weeks before he gets another MLB look. Second, where you going to play him? In LF or as a DH against RH pitching? Then where do you play Miranda, who's .292/.338/.517 (.855) against RH pitching? Or Larnach who's .260/.317./.449 (.768)? Sit Santana so Miranda can play 1B when Santana has hit .260/.360/.480 (.840) over the last 30 games, even better over the last 15, and is the superior defender? It's just hard to see a way to give Wallner many ABs without weakening the lineup. If he came back, he probably plays twice a week max. Bottom line is Wallner had a tough time for awhile, lost his spot, and two other players stepped up and took it in Miranda and Larnach. He's now going to have to wait for a chance to get a spot back. Someone will get hurt and he'll get a 10 to 14 day shot at getting back to MLB. IF he performs well, great. If not, back to AAA. He doesn't get a long look, riding out slumps, etc. He performs right away or he's back in the minors. The team is playing well and we are competitive for a playoff spot. This isn't a complete developmental year where you play guys just to see what they can do. No need to force him back into the lineup now.

Of course the Twins monitor this site. i would think much less of them if they didn't. This site is some of the hard core Twins fans. It's just smart business to know what your hard core customers are thinking. It's like a restaurant employee or owner who surreptitiously monitors their Yelp reviews. Here, it easy. You get someone to open an account, post innocuous things every now and then, and read the comments. To me. the big question is do they post or blog to flog management's opinion. I don't think so, but inquiring minds want to know . . .

This. The Dodgers didn't get to be one of the best teams in baseball just because they have money. They got there because they are really good at evaluating talent. Would the Dodgers maybe give that all time great player "cash considerations" to get Farmer as a back up IF if he was DFA'd? Maybe, may be not. But they are not going to give up anything to get him. They don't need to.

Here's a thought. Send Kirilloff and Keaschall with the Mets sending Alonso AND the $$ to pay him for the rest of 2024. I don't want to trade Festa. Pitching is too hard to find.

I started a separate thread on this. The prices being quoted in the media are in my view way too high for a guy like Pete Alonso. I also think that any thought of signing him for 2025 and beyond is a complete fantasy. He actually likes New York and wants to stay there, the only question is will the Mets pony up the contract necessary to keep him. From what I have read, he wants a little more than what Freddie Freeman got from the Dodgers – 6 years, $162 million. Beating that is what will take to sign him so let's not kid ourselves that we can get him for less. To show you the trade cost, the Athletic just published an article about "FIve Trades I'd Like To See" before the MLB trade deadline. One of them involved the Twins trading for Pete Alonso: Twins get: Pete Alonso Mets get: Alex Kirilloff, David Festa, Luke Keaschall I for one would be very irritated if the Twins made this trade. Let's start with what we get. Pete Alonso is a great hitter and would be a great fit in the middle of our lineup for the next two or three months. After that, he is going to a high revenue team for 2025 and beyond, most likely returning to the Mets. He likes it there, he likes New York, and it's only a matter of whether they will pony up the money. If the Mets won't pony up the money, another East Coast team will. I have to think the Yankees are looking for a first basemen for next season given Anthony Rizzo's struggles. Alonso is the very definition of a short term, half season rental. And that's before we think about whether ownership would be willing to part with the about $8 million he still owed for the rest of the 2024 season. Now let's think about what we would give up. I am down on Kirilloff as are many others, but he still has high end upside. I wouldn't mind using him as part of a trade given his redundancy with Larnach and Wallner (I think Miranda has won the first base job starting next season unless he falls off the table), but not when you have to give up two quality pieces to go with him. Festa is probably our best starting pitching prospect and certainly the one closest to the Majors. Keaschall is only 21 and looks to have some real upside in the middle infield. That's important when we remember that Correa is only going to be the starting SS for another 3-4 years, when he will age out. Lewis' knee injuries probably leave him at 3B for the foreseeable future. Lee or Keaschall may be the SS starting in 2026 or 2027. Way too big a package for two or three months of Pete Alonso, way too much. I might give up one of the three as long as it wasn't Festa plus a less heralded prospect or two like Schobel or Rosario, but not the three listed. It's possible that this is classic clickbait from a New York homer wanting to improve his team. If it's not, the necessary prices far too high to pay for 2 to 3 months of anyone not named Aaron Judge. This is a hard "No" for me.

The Athletic just published an article about "FIve Trades I'd Like To See" before the MLB trade deadline. One of them involved the Twins trading for Pete Alonso: Twins get: Pete Alonso Mets get: Alex Kirilloff, David Festa, Luke Keaschall I for one would be very irritated if the Twins made this trade. Let's start with what we get. Pete Alonso is a great hitter and would be a great fit in the middle of our lineup for the next two or three months. After that, he is going to a high revenue team for 2025 and beyond, most likely returning to the Mets. He likes it there, he likes New York, and it's only a matter of whether they will pony up the money. If the Mets won't pony up the money, another East Coast team will. I have to think the Yankees are looking for a first basemen for next season given Anthony Rizzo's struggles. Alonso is the very definition of a short term one season rental. And that's before we think about whether ownership would be willing to part with the about $8 million he still owed for the rest of the 2024 season. Now let's think about what we would give up. I am down on Kirilloff as are many others, but he still has high end upside. I wouldn't mind using him as part of a trade given his redundancy with Larnach and Wallner (I think Miranda has won the first base job starting next season unless he falls off the table), but not when you have to give up two quality pieces to go with him. Festa is probably our best starting pitching prospect and certainly the one closest to the Majors. Keaschall is only 21 and looks to have some real upside in the middle infield. That's important when we remember that Correa is only going to be the starting SS for another 3-4 years, when he will age out. Lewis' knee injuries probably leave him at 3B for the foreseeable future. Lee or Keaschall may be the Shortstop starting in 2026 or 2027. Way too big a package for two or three months of Pete Alonso, way too much. I might give up one of the three as long as it wasn't Festa plus a less heralded prospect or two like Schobel or Rosario, but not the three listed. My conclusion is this is classic clickbait from a New York homer wanting to improve his team. What say each of you?

Good point. There's a certain recency bias built in since Sheets is having a much better year this year than the other 3. It makes you think that Sheets is more of an "established" player than the other 3. Still, I feel like Sheets is more of a known quantity breaking out. Larnach may be that as well this year. Wallner and Kirilloff are more suspect as MLB hitters, especially Kirilloff. Plus Sheets is a decent OF, has a higher OBP, strikes out more like 20% of the time rather than 30%, and has a better all around game. Kirilloff and Larnach are adequate at best in the OF. Wallner is a boom or bust hitter, but a decent OF. I just like Sheets' all around game better. Unless we re-sign Kepler we are looking for 2 corner OFs for next year. Adding Sheets gives us one more option there and I think he's likely to be within the top 2 if you add the other 3.

The contract looks pretty good right now based on the way he's playing and you have to remember two things that make it look even better. First, is making 33.3 million this year and will make 37.3 next year, and then his contract starts going DOWN in value. He gets 32.8 million in 2026, 31.8 million in 2027, 31.3 million in 2028, and then vesting options that started 25 million and go all the way down to 10 million. In other words, the Twins are paying premium prices for his premium years but not for his declining years. Unlike a lot of baseball contracts, frankly most of them, the Twins are not looking at a long stretch of paying somebody top $ when they can't really play that well. Also, by the way, with salary elation being what it has been, I expect that $31 million contract in 2028 and not even be in the top 10 or 20 contracts in baseball. Almost as important, signing Correa made this team relevant on the national scene and relevant to other players. This signing made other players look at the Twins as a real team trying to compete and win, not just some nice team that developed players and then lost them to richer franchises. I really think that will rebound to our benefit in keeping the players we have who will want to play with him and think we can compete with him, and also in getting that second tier of free agents to consider coming to Minnesota. The Twins are never going up pay well enough to compete for the high-end free agents, but that second tier should now have us on their list of potential destinations. That is a big deal if we want to compete. Sometimes it's better to be lucky than good. This was a great signing.

While I would love to pick up Crochet or Robert, I think the chances of it us getting either are very small and the cost would be very high. Those guys are probably going to cost us at least one and maybe two of our Top 100 global prospects, something like Lee or Emma plus Festa or Gonzalez, plus some solid AA guys. That's just too high a price and too good a player to be given to a division rival. The only way we get a shot at a guy like that if the White Sox trade him to another team who then trades them to us. I'm not thrilled with giving up much for Fedde. He very well may be a one-year wonder coming over from the KBO after originally not making it here. Plus, he is probably get a cost at least a Luke Keschall plus kind of package. Gavin Sheets does sound interesting. Maybe he could be had for a package of two or three solid but not top prospects. Say Zebbie Matthews or Marco Raya plus De Andrade, and may be adding in an A ball lottery ticket Something like that. We are going to have need in the corner OF next year unless Kepler is re-signed. Right now, were looking at starting two from the group of Castro, Larnach, Wallner, and Martin. There's not much else in AAA other than maybe Keirsey and Emma is more of a mid-2025 guy I think. I like to keep Castro in the utility role. He's great in that role and his bat plays there, not sure if it plays up enough to be an every day corner outfielder. . Playing two of the other three every day strikes me as a major crapshoot. I would definitely inquire on Sheets and at least see if he can be had for a reasonable price. By the way, I'd also be checking in wiht the Angels on Tyler Anderson and Taylor Ward pretty much every week.

I was thinking the same thing until I looked at Abreu's performance in 2023 and so far in 2024. 2023 - .237/.296/.383(.680) in 594 PAs, 540 ABs, with 18 HRs, 90 RBIs, and an 87 OPS+. Frankly, Santana has been better at the plate and is miles ahead of Abreu with the glove. Maybe 2023 was just an off year? So far in 2024 - .124/.167/.195(.361) with a 4 OPS+. Not 44, 4. Just one 4. He looks done. Still, if there was any way to get Abreu back to even 85-90% of the player he was from 2014-20222 . . .His career slash line with the White Sox from '14-'22 is .292/.354/.506 (.860), averaging roughly 30 HRs and 110 RBIs. A man can dream . .

The twins need a frontline starter (or young pitcher capable of becoming one), middle of the order bat, leadoff hitter, and a late inning LH reliever. The only one here that might interest me is Sears. He could maybe be that kind of starter but looks more like a guy you trade for if one of your starters goes down. The rest don't look like they fit. I would be willing to trade from surplus for a guy like Erceg or even Harris. Maybe we could trade a package of secondary prospects headlined by Severino, Helman, Keirsey, Keaschall, or Schobel plus others for Erceg or Harris? Beyond that, hard to see a fit here.

Agreed. Absent injury I wouldn’t promote him before the All Star break. He’s coming out of a very big hole so we need to see consistency. Let’s not forget, it’s not like Wallner was a consistently good major-league bat last year. He was very good in May, hit below .210 in June, July and August, albeit with real power, and then had a big rise and September when other teams are throwing their AAA pitchers. He was overmatched in the playoffs, horrendous in spring training, and completely unplayable in April. He has yet to show he could be a successful, consistent major-league hitter. Let’s first make him show. He can be a successful, consistent, AAA hitter over a six weeks span before we think about bringing him up.

The lineup is on MLB.com. Don't know how to copy and paste from there. Same lineup as yesterday except Miranda is playing 3B and hitting 5th, Correa moves up to the 3 hole, Margot in LF hitting 8th, and Vasquez is catching hitting 9th. Lewis, Jeffers, Martin all on the bench.

Not me. The problem is that C prospect isn't going to get you anyone any good. Casey Leguima got us Kyle Farmer. We don't need another Farmer, Margot, Santana, etc. type. We need a middle of the order bat, frontline starter or "late and close" reliever. We already have a pretty good roster of B/B+ MLB players with a couple of A/A- guys in Correa and hopefully Lewis. We need A rental guys if the goal is to really up our chances this year - Pete Alonso, Mason Miller, Chris Bassitt - and those guys are going to cost us. Trades for those kind of rentals start with someone like Brooks Lee, Festa, or Emma, and we'd have to add some good prospects with them. I don't think that's worth it. There may be some marginal value for the FO trading a C prospect like Schobel, Severino, or De Andrade for a middle reliver or back end starter. But that's not going to put us over the top into contention so why do it for a one year rental? My point is the kind of rental that might really help is going to cost a lot of prospect capital and we just aren't good enough to take that shot this year and suffer the damage in future years. Others may differ,

Starting pitching is the most valuable asset in baseball and the hardest to find. I personally don't think Varland will make it as a starter because he can't find a third quality pitch, much less a fourth. A guy with two quality pitches belongs in the bullpen and Varland could be very good in that role. We saw evidence of that last year. Still, I think you have to give him one last shot as a starter this year. We need the depth this year and he could be extremely valuable if he can develop into a starter. I expect them to leave him at AAA as the 6th starter and bring him up for the bullpen in late August if he isn't needed in the rotation. I think that's the right thing to do this year. The long term decision time comes next year.

I don't see anything interesting here. As I've said in other posts, I don't think the Twins should be trading for any rental players. We aren't close enough to real contention to push our chips in for this year by trading prospects. Besides, none of these guys really move the needle. Manaea would have been interesting a couple of years ago for the reasons Matt posits but now he's 32, costs roughly $15m a year, and doesn't offer much better performance than Ober, Paddack, or Woods-Richardson. He's someone you look at IF there's a significant injury to one of the starting 5 AND Varland doesn't perform. BTW, I am enjoying this series going through selling teams to see if there's anything we want to pursue. The more we do that though the more convinced I become that the only real targets for trades are Jesus Luzardo of the Marlins and Tyler Anderson, Luis Rengifo, and Taylor Ward of the Angels. All have at least one year of control after 2024 at a reasonable cost. The only rentals I would consider are Pete Alonso - but he will cost a lot of prospect capital and is going back to the Mets after the season - and Jesse Winker of the Nationals. Winker is cheap and shouldn't cost us too much in prospect capital, although I'm not sure how much of an upgrade he really is over Margot if an upgrade at all. I really hope that the FO is talking now with the Marlins and the Angels. I expect the Twins to do very little at the trade deadline other than possibly moving Margot or Farmer for A or A+ ball types to clear room for Lee, Julien, or Wallner. Frankly, I think that's the best approach. We're in playoff contention but not in "win more than one playoff series" contention. This is a year to set up next year by playing guys like Miranda, Martin, Lee, etc. so we have a solid fixed lineup for next season that doesn't require us to sign one year vets like Santana and Margot. If we can get there, THEN we can make a move by trading prospects/young MLB guys for a big bat or frontline pitcher. That sounds like more of an offseason move to me.