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  1. LA Vikes Fan
    The most important and interesting statistic up there is the record in one run and extra inning games. Cleveland is 23–15 in one run games, 8–3 in extra innings. The Twins are 19–15 in one run games, 2-3 in extra innings. That isn't luck. That's the difference between having a very good bullpen and a middle-of-the-road bullpen. The difference in bullpens is why Cleveland leads the division and the Twins do not. Cleveland has a much better bullpen.
  2. LA Vikes Fan
    I think if the Martin that we are seeing now is the long term Martin, I would agree. It's very hard to have a starting player who hits 5 or les HRs a year unless that player can play CF, SS, or C at a pretty high level. Where I disagree is I don't think this is the long term Martin, I think he will improve both at the plate and on defense. I think he could be an above average to very good (not elite) CF with reps and practice. I also think he could be a .280/.340/.425, 30 Doubles, 20 SBs kind of hitter as early as next year. or 2026. To me, that's a solid regular #3 or #4 OF. I see him as part of a 4 OF group next year with Buxton, Larnach, and Wallner, with Castro out there occasionally as part of a super utility role. Maybe I'm too optimistic but I think that level of potential is there. I would not trade him in the off season unless his presence in a package could get us a frontline starting pitcher. I think Martin is here for the longer run.
  3. LA Vikes Fan
    It's a start. For those longing for Varland and Winder, they were optioned on 8/15 and 8/14, respectively and have to stay in AAA for 15 days before being recalled unless there's an injury. Both are not available until next weekend.
  4. LA Vikes Fan
    Agree with one change - I think we have to keep Vasquez. Not because he's worth $10m but because we don't have anyone else ready and I don't want to spend $3-4M on a washed up backup catcher. I don't see us rolling with Camairgo as the #2 catcher next year, so we wind up on the market looking for a 30 year old plus body. Any catcher worth much of anything is $2-3M a year, a decent one $3-5M a year. I like our catching tandem the way it is and would like to keep it going next year. Good point on Paddack, though, and on the kind of decisions that are going to have to be made. Unless ownership steps up payroll (unlikely), we can't keep what we have. My view is that the second half this year has shown enough SP depth that I'd be willing to trade Paddack for prospects or Paddack and prospects for a reliable reliever and save $4-5M (Paddack's salary less the salary of the acquired reliever), and put that $$ towards keeping Castro on the team. Losing Kepler saves $10m, Famer $6M, Santana $5m, and Margot $4m. Add in trading Paddack's $7.5M salary and there's enough to handle arbitration and contract raises, sign a good but not great reliever for $3-4M, and keep Castro. I like me some Kepler and Santana, and I understand having to have SP depth, but I like keeping Castro and Vasquez and rolling with the young guns in the #4 and #5 spots better.
  5. LA Vikes Fan
    Thanks, I thought they had to be on the 26 man. That actually makes things a lot easier, especially when it comes to the last bullpen spot being a yo-yo between Winder and Henriquez.
  6. LA Vikes Fan
    Not sure where you're getting that "unlikely to suit up this year" comment rom, can you tell us? What I read is that Buxton is just about ready and may be activated tomorrow. If not, probably by Monday. Correa is farther away and may require a few games in AAA given hos long he's been out but he's expected back by mid-September at the latest. I may not be reading the right things though.
  7. LA Vikes Fan
    Agree with this but you have to remember that by rule, any pitcher optioned to AAA cannot come back up for 15 days unless there's an injury. Winder was optioned 8/14, so he's eligible 8/30 but not before. Varland went down on 8/15 so he can't come up until 8/31. I think those two should be in the BP over Okert and probably Henriquez but we can do that until the end of the month., unless someone gets hurt. Richards is painful to watch but has gotten results in 7 of 8 appearances. I think he'll stay for now, but probably not in the postseason BP, if we make it, if either Paddack or Topa can come back.
  8. LA Vikes Fan
    Agreed. Making Varland a reliever now doesn't mean he can't try out again as a starter next season. We're not talking about a permanent move, or at least shouldn't be, we're talking about a temporary fix for the rest of this season. Call him up for Henriquez when we can (I think he's eligible for recall on 8/30) and either sign Hector Neris or call up Winder (eligible for recall on 8/29) to replace Okert. Yes, that only leaves us with one LH option but that's much less important when all relivers have to go 3 batters. A bullpen with Varland and Neris/Winder for Okert and Henriquez could and should make a pretty big difference.
  9. LA Vikes Fan
    I'd like to see the Twins explore a 1 or 2 year deal with Kepler, but I agree that it probably isn't going to happen. He would be a great 3rd/4th OF along with Larnach behind Buxton and Wallner. I suspect he's going to be too expensive for that and probably doesn't want to stay where he's being passed by. I suspect he'll sign a 2 year deal with a non-contending but decent team like San Fran, Detroit, Pitt, amybe even Seattle where he can join Polanco. It'll be sad to see him go but with Wallner and LArnach passing him by and Emma and maybe even Martin close behind it's one of the inevitable passing of the torch moments in sports.
  10. LA Vikes Fan
    Neris is a RH reliever. He was on a $9m contract from the Cubs which contained a $9m option for 2025 that kicked in if he made 60 appearances or finished 45 games. He's 8-4, 3.89 in 46 games so far with 17 saves. He was really good last year with Houston, 6-3, 1.71 ERA in 17 games with 2 saves. Solid in 2022 and 2021, great in 2023, with over 70 appearances each year. He's a very good set up man but the Cubs tried to turn him into a closer and the experiment didn't take. Pretty neutral RH/LH splits. good experience in playoff races with the Phillies in 2021 and the Astros in 2022 and 2023. The Cubs wanted to release him before the option kicked in. The option does not follow him so he's available to any team on whatever contract he'll sign with this year expected to be the MLB minimum unless someone wants to pay at a prorated number bigger than $9m annually. I absolutely think he's worth a call. He would slot in as our 5th best BP option behind Jax, Duran, Alcala, and Sands right now. Wish he was LH but beggars can't be choosers. Might require some sort of 2025 commitment but I'd give it to him if not extreme. Make room with a Okert DFA or Henriquez option.
  11. LA Vikes Fan
    I think you're right; it was a little of both. I would add one other possible consideration - where the FO thinks this team is in terms of contention to go more than one playoff round. My premise is that acquiring a deadline reliver is typically a short term move for the season at hand. Most of the traded relivers are on expiring deals, older, or have injury histories. Usually, it's 2 of the 3. You have to give up real prospects to get a good one so it is only really worth it if you think strengthening the bullpen has a chance to take your current roster over the top into a deep playoff run. I think the FO evaluates this team as a year away from a deep playoff run. I agree by the way. As a result, I don't think they were willing to trade a quality prospect for any short term guy like Tanner Scott, Luis Garcia, Carlos Estevez ,Andrew Chafin, or any one else. Is Richards more valuable than what the Twins gave up? Probably. Is he going to take them to a better playoff position or help a deeper playoff run? Nope. I think the FO wants to run with the team we have so they can see the holes, see if any of the young (and Cheap) guys can fill those holes, patch any remaining over the winter, and see if next year can be the first year of a longer run of contention. IF that's the plan, paying a prospect cost for a good reliever who isn't likely to be on your team in 2025 doesn't make a lot of sense. Maybe you pick up a guy who gets released for salary reasons that you don't have to take on and thus doesn't cost anything (see Hector Neris), but that's it. By the way, pitching Steven Okert when Varland, Winder, and even Dobnak are in AAA also doesn't make a lot of sense. Actually no sense. But that's a topic for another thread.
  12. LA Vikes Fan
    The Cubs just released Hector Neris. Has been good in the past, not as much this year while being miscast as a closer. Very good for Houston in 2023, decent but not great in 20222. Maybe worth a look? https://www.mlb.com/player/hector-neris-593576 Reds got Rosario, by the way. They had priority over the Twins.
  13. LA Vikes Fan
    Boy, are you right about that. Just when you think you have surplus pitching that you can trade, you make a move, someone gets hurt, and you run out. There has been some talk of trading Paddack in the offseason to make room for the young guys and because he’s making $7.5 million next year. I’m very mixed on whether he can even be a Mid rotation starter, but I think we gotta keep him because we need the depth.
  14. LA Vikes Fan
    Amen, Doctor Gast. This should be a reminder to all of us that player development continues through a player's 20s at least and is rarely linear. Sands has been willing to accept coaching and has worked hard to get better. The results speak for themselves. He may be that 3rd high leverage arm we need now that Stewart is once again out for the season and Theilbar is finally losing that battle with Father time. The other guy that really impressed me in his recent brief MLB sojurn was Josh Winder. It would be great if he could follow a similar path.
  15. LA Vikes Fan
    What do you guys know about Payton Eeles? I happened to look at the St Paul roster to see if there was an available SS to spell Castro, and it looks like he’s been playing there a lot. He’s shot up 3 levels this year and it appears like this is his first year out of college. He’s hitting over.300 in AAA. Is he a real prospect? Looks like it.
  16. LA Vikes Fan
    I think Jeffers is really wearing down. A 10 IL stint could really help him refresh and be more productive in September. Problem is that it's hard to do that when half the team is on the IL. I'd like to see them catch Vasquez in 5 of the 7 games on this trip. Add in the off day next Thursday and Jeffers would then catch 2 games in 7 days. I think that kid of break could really help him. I'd like to see Castro get a break since he's also obviously wearing down. Just not sure who would play short.
  17. LA Vikes Fan
    I think this is the trad-off for next year - Lee for Margot. Castro and Martin are the backup CFs. If Kepler leaves, than there's one more spot where we could get a defense first CF or promote Keirsey.
  18. LA Vikes Fan
    Agreed with slightly different timing. I think the Twins optioned him on 8/14 to be sure his 15 days were over before the 9/1 playoff roster deadline. He may or may not be on that roster, but getting him up by 9/1 preserves the option. Same for Varland going down on 8/15. It will be interesting to see what happens when and if Richards, Winder, Okert, Henriquez, and Varland are all healthy and there's 3 bullpen spots for the 5 of them. I suspect that an "injury" could resolve it so 4 (everyone except Henriquez) are either on the 26 man or the MLB IL on 9/1.
  19. LA Vikes Fan
    MLB Trade Rumors is reporting that Buxton is going on the IL backdated to Tuesday. Julien is coming up to replace him. Still no word on who replaces Varland. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/08/twins-to-place-byron-buxton-on-injured-list-3.html
  20. LA Vikes Fan
    Thanks for this, I think a big part of the issue might be that Castro is very tired and needs a break. He is playing more than anyone on the team, primarily because we don't have another SS with Correa and Lee both out. Can Farmer still actually play SS? I mean, that is the reason he was re-signed and made the team. To me, there is a pretty obvious adjustment to be made if Farmer can play SS. Castro plays SS against RH pitching with Famer there against LH starters like tonight until Correa comes back. Gives Castro some badly needed rest and improves our bench versatility in late innings. Farmer is hitting better since he came back off the IL - .222/.333/.566 (.899) since he came back on 8/9. Most of that is against LH pitching. Miniscule sample size but still somewhat encouraging and a whole lot better than Willi has been doing. If Farmer can't do it, how about Martin at SS with Farmer at 2B? He was a SS for a long time in the Minors. To me, the better move would be to pick up Ahmed Rosario on waivers and plug him in at SS with this 2024 .305/.331/.415 slash line. Not the best defender but better that Castro. Alas, I don't think that's going to happen . . .
  21. LA Vikes Fan
    UPdate - Just saw that the Twins have optioned Louie Varland back to St. Paul. No corresponding move yet announced. Looks like Festa and Matthews are the short term winners for the #4 and #5 rotation spots with Varland as #6 for the time being. Assume he will be back before 9/1 in the bullpen unless there's another injury. I think it's the right move.
  22. LA Vikes Fan
    Just saw that the Twins have optioned Louie Varland back to St. Paul. No corresponding move yet announced. Looks like Festa and Matthews are the short term winners for the #4 and #5 rotation spots with Varland as #6 for the time being. Assume he will be back before 9/1 in the bullpen unless there's another injury.
  23. LA Vikes Fan
    I agree with mikelink on Varland. The stats aren't bad, but the stats were more than just a little lucky., The Royals hit Varland pretty hard and he was lucky to escape the 4th and 5th innings. I would call this an ok start at best, and nothing that would make one think that he could be an effective starter every 5th day down the stretch. Most importantly, we have to evaluate how he looked as compared to Festa and Matthews. Festa has looked better with a 2.2 ERA over his last 4 appearances and 18.2 innings. He also has a lot more strikeouts. He was also better than Varland in AAA. Matthews only has one appearance where he went 5 innings, 5 hits, 2 runs, 5 SOs, and no walks. So far Festa has looked better than Varland and has a big enough sample size to be meaningful. Matthews has also looked better but we need to see at least one more start before ranking. Right now, I would say Varland is number 3 of 3 headed either back to AAA as starter #6 or to the BP but we need to see one more Matthews start before we can be more confident in that.
  24. LA Vikes Fan
    Agreed. I'm not suggesting we should try to do that, I'm just hoping that's how things wind up.
  25. LA Vikes Fan
    I have seen some comments about a getaway lineup. I don't think the lineup was a matter of poor choices; the problem is we just didn't have anybody else to put in against a very good LH starter. Correa and Buxton are both out, so there go two RH hitters who hate left-handers well. The only other options would have been to play Kepler or Wallner instead of Larnach, and maybe Vasquez instead of Jeffers. I don't think it was really a getaway day lineup in the traditional sense where you play your reserves on Sunday afternoon. I think this is what we've got to go against LH pitching at the present time. I would have been tempted to sit Castro, and play Farmer at SS with Martin at 2B. Kepler could then have played RF with Margot in CF - that effectively trades Castro for Kepler. Castro is in a major slump and looks gassed. We could've tried Wallner but that would've meant sitting either Lewis or Larnach. Statistically, neither Larnach or Wallner can really hit left-handed pitchers so I think that's kind of a pick your poison situation. I agree with the idea that they should get a chance to hit left-handers to improve but when we do that you have to endure days like today when Larnach wasn't much value at the plate. We really need Correa and Buxton back to go against LH starting pitching PLUS we need Lewis to start hitting. Lewis is hitting .231/.311/.519 in his last 30 games, .250/.308/.417 in his last 7. Not horrible production but not middle of the order production either. Without him hitting like a true #3 or #4 hitter and then without Correa and Buxton, we are easy pickings for a LH starter.
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