LA Vikes Fan

It seems to me that Baltimore signing Alonso really means that Mountcastle is available. I could see the Twins trading for Mountcastle as a RH 1B. The question is the price. Baltimore is going all in this year so trading a prospect for Mountcastle seems unlikely to be enough, but the Orioles do need starting pitching. How about a trade of Ober for Mountcastle plus a prospect? Both are guys with some decent track record coming off a down year. We get the prospect because a starting pitcher is just worth more than a 1B.

i hear your argument and it has some merit but I see 2 good reasons to continue to hold the franchise if I'm the Pohlads. The most obvious is the run up in franchise value. It's like owning a house you rent out. Maybe the rent does nothing more than cover the mortgage, taxes, and insurance, or leaves yo with a slight positive every month. It's still worth owning as long as its value is going up every year and not worth it when that stops. That dovetails with the Pohlads behavior; they kept the franchise as it went up in value and then tried to sell it when they thought the value rise would stop. They just overpriced it for the market, so they took on two LPs (we think) and undoubtedly will put it back on the market unless franchise values start rising again. I don't think that's likely short term, so my guess is the Twins are either bought by one of the new LPs or back on the market after the new CBA is signed. The second is the reason most of these billionaire types buy teams - the prestige and ego gratification. Think about it this way. How many people in the US own the majority or all of a professional sports franchise? 100? 150? 200? Now cut that to the big 4 in order of prestige, the NFL, NBA, MLB, and NHL. Given the cross ownership in many cities between leagues, we are now probably down below 100, maybe to 75, people who own enough of a team to be the "ownership face" of the team. Limited partners/behind the scenes partial owners don't count. Owning a major sport pro team gives one some serious billionaire flex. You get to sit in the owner's box at games, go to the meetings, sit on committees (like Jim Pohlad on the CBA negotiating committee), get tickets to other sports events like the Super Bowl, go on TV and sound important, talk the press if you want, etc. So I see a good business reason to own the team and a good ego reason. You could argue that ownership should put some of the increased vague into payroll but almost none of them do that unless they have a bunch of cash sitting around and even then, most don't. Besides, it's just not good business to rob Peter to pay Paul; something the Pohlads have learned. They did that with the Twins, wound up with too much debt, and had to take on partners.

I'm with Mike. The important thing is that next year's starting OF should be Buxton (CF), Martin (LF), and Roden (RF), with Wallner as the DH and occasional RF. We need a backup CF so maybe Outman unfortunately makes the team. If Roden or Martin falter by May/June (or there is an injury), GG, Jenkins or Emma comes up to take their place in the order justified by their 2025 and 2026 production. Right now it's the order above but that can change next year. When they come up, they play every day. They don't sit on the bench so Outman can play; he is a backup OF only. Love to replace Outman, but don't know with who. Andujar makes sense IF he can be a regular 1B. If he can't, we would have to sacrifice Roden or Martin to play Andujar because Wallner has to go back to RF. That is too high a price to pay to add Andujar as a DH. Also kills the OF defense because Wallner isn't good out there. 2026 is about finding the guys who will patrol the OF with Buxton in 2027 and 2028 from Martin, Roden, GG, Jenkins, Emma, and Fedko. Play them and find out.

Hard to say. We'll know in about 5 years. Let's chat then,

It's not the cash that's the victory. It's the getting of a decent prospect by simply taking somebody that the Giants wanted and sending him over. The $72,500 is just gravy.

Exactly. The Twins paid the $100,000 Rule 5 fee to get a guy the Giants just paid a $150,000 to sign. We keep Carabello until all of his rights are expired in about 8 years. The Giants keep Susac IF they keep him on the MLB roster for the entire 2026 season or they have to give him back. Seems like a good deal to me.

You may have seen the math I did above. I'm guessing that the team makes some money in a good year, loses a little in a down year, and basically breaks about even or operates at a slight profit over the longer 5-7 year haul. In other words, I think they spend what they get out of the team but don't add a lot to that, except maybe investing in payroll if they think they have a playoff team and can bank on getting their money back form an increase in attendance in the short term leading to increased revenue. That explains the up and down in the payroll and the unwillingness to invest beyond what the business generates. I don't think we have a bunch of fat cats burning Twins generated dollar bills to light their cigars while they drink vintage champagne, but I also don't think the Pohlads are reaching into their own pockets in a vanity play like Steve Cohen of the Mets. In other words, they are acting like rational businesspeople, not the win at all cost spend my own money owner we all wish we had. Let's face it, the real money in owning a baseball team is the increase in franchise value. The problem is you can't spend that increase unless you sell the team or borrow against the franchise. We now see the flaws in the borrowing approach. The unfortunate news is that we shouldn't expect a big rise in spending unless attendance improves or TV revenue spikes. The better news is that by the Twins selling limited shares, we may be spared a complete tear down and a team that looks like Pittsburg or Oakland/Sacramento/Vegas.

This is the big question that without an answer really makes the Pohlads are cheap mantra kind of meaningless. Based on the anecdotal evidence I've seen, the Twins revenue is likely above $300m and below $350M now after the collapse of the RSN model. Forbes estimated their 2023 revenue at $342M with an operating profit of $19M, and estimated revenue for 2025 at $324M net of Target Field related payments. Don't forget that the Twins contributed $175M to the Target Field construction - the narrative that "taxpayers built them a ballpark" is only partially correct. So what happens to that $324M? Well, they have debt of $425-450M so a lot goes to debt service. But let's pretend that doesn't exist or will be gone in the future due to taking on limited partners. The team payroll last year was about $130M - started at $145M, ended at $95M, the $130M is actual cash out the door. Pittsburg's 2024 numbers show they had another $171.5M in expenses for administration, minor league teams, signing bonuses, salaries, travel, back office, etc, including stadium costs. Atlanta had $595M in revenue, $504M in expenses, of which $238M was the team payroll, so the Braves had $256M in non-payroll expenses. Let's be helpful to the Pohlads are cheap side and say that the Twins' non-payroll expenses are a little more than Pittsburg but a lot less than Atlanta, so $180-$200M. The Twins are bigger spenders in the international draft, coaches salaries, on the minors, etc., than Pittsburgh, but nowhere near Atlanta. That puts the Twins total expenses at anywhere from $310m - $330M for 2025, possibly more, unlikely to be less. That would leave at most $14M in operating profit, or less than 5%, and could result in an operating loss for 2025. In other words, most likely the Twins as a business basically broke even before debt service on the $425M in debt. Now it's fair to say that at least some if not most of that debt is from unrelated businesses so that's on ownership, which is why didn't count it. Still, if these numbers are even close the point is the Twins last year did not make much if any money, even after selling of half the team at the trade deadline. In fact, selling off half the team is how they broke even or limited their losses. If they hadn't, they would have had another $25M in payroll and would have operated at a loss if the revenue and expense numbers are right. Look, there's a lot of things we don't know so this is speculative, but I'd be willing to bet these numbers are within 10% or reality. Also, this is only operating profit, it does not account for any increase in value of the team as an asset. So where does this back of the envelope math leave us? Well, let's assume that (1) the new limited partners clear out the debt, (2) the 2025 revenues and 2026 revenues are roughly the same (could easily be much less based on comparative attendance and sales of streaming rights), (3) the team is not going to spend any increase in team value on the team for the simple reason that they have to sell to realize that increase in value and could make a lot more money taking that value and investing it in the stock market, and (4) they would want to make at least a 7-10% operating profit (good luck with that). The current payroll is $95M, and the other expenses in 2026 are closer to the $200m mark if only for inflation but let's say $190M. That totals $285M on a $324M revenue base, leaving $39M. It's unreasonable to think they won't want at least some operating margin for unforeseen expenses and some profit, so let's be greedy to us, not the Pohlads, and give them a margin of 5% of revenue, or $16M. That leaves them $23M to up the payroll to around $118M. Kind of makes sense, doesn't it? And keep in mind, that's with a conservatively low view of non-payroll expenses and a 5% operating margin. Very few companies stay in business with a 5% operating margin. With that thin a margin, all you need is one piece of bad luck and you are operating at a loss or out of business. In other words, if ownership is willing to operate without making any margin and take the risk of an operating loss if attendance or TV revenue declines, the payroll could be $135M. A more likely scenario is an on the field payroll of $110-115M, leaving us room to add $15-$20M, of which raises through arbitration, etc could eat $5m or so. Two FA pitchers at a total of $7m or less and a 1B at $6-10M and it's gone. Spend that now and their is no room to take on salary at the trade deadline, no money for replacement guys from other teams when a player gets hurt, and very little room for error if attendance tanks. With all that, I come to 2 conclusions. First, the idea that the Twins have "mild flexibility": to add free agents makes sense. They got a few bucks, but not much. Second, owning a MLB team in a smaller to mid market is a depressingly lousy business unless you can draw 2.5-3M fans paying full price. Ain't nobody getting rich owning that kind of a team. You have to be rich and willing to be a little less rich if you want to own a baseball team outside of the coasts, Atlanta, Houston, and Chicago. I welcome comments on the math and revenue or expense assumptions IF you have a basis and sources. Mine are Forbes estimates and published information about other teams. I don't pretend to be an expert so I'd be really curious on other's takes but "I know the Twins make a lot more money" without backup is not a good take.

Any thought that Gasper might join him?

And right on cue, the Twins just dropped McCusker "so he could pursue an opportunity in Asia." I'm guessing the draft either a relief pitcher or Rumfield, the 1B.

Thanks for the comment. So does that mean we can't take anyone in the Rule 5 draft, or does that mean we can take someone and then drop a Julien, Outman, etc. to make space? Or something else?

I think you may overrate Brock, as we all do with our own players. I live in LA and the word here was that the Dodgers gave up way too much by trading a perfectly good 4th OF to acquire an oft injured reliever who can only go 30-40 innings a year. And then, right on cue, Stewart goes 37 innings, leterally 4 innings with the Dodgers with a 4.91 ERA, goes on the Il, has a shoulder injury, and goes into surgery. They hope to have him back for the second half of 2026 but at 31, the end may be near. Actually half a season may work out great since the 37 innings he pitched in 2025 was the most of his career, and 30% more than he'd ever pitched. We all know Stewart's profile - pitch well for half a season and then his arm falls off. There is no way he was or is worth any team's top 10 prospect.

Agreed. I'm ok with trading Jeffers, but not for High A or even AA prospects. It would have to be for guys who have at least mastered AAA, even better someone who just made the fringes of the MLB roster and who just needs the opportunity a contending team has a very hard time finding. Jeffers is the MN C for now. A trade for prospects can be had at the deadline. No need to lower ourselves to that level now.

Love the concept, less excited about the FAs you cited. I would shop Ober, and I like the idea of trading him for Mountcastle plus a solid AA type prospect or a AAA starter we can convert to the MLB bullpen. Trade of 2 guys coming off down years who have been better before and we get the kicker because starting pitching is worth more than a 1B. Do not use the money for any of Hoskins (short term very risky, long term cooked), or IKF (mediocre at best). Andujar might be worth it IF he can play at least an average 1B, otherwise has no place on this team. If the move is to trade from our "surplus" of young starters, to me Matthews, Abel, and Festa are off the table unless the return is pretty significant. I think the floor for both Matthews and Abel is #4 type starer, and both have top of the rotation ceilings. I would want a high end SS prospect who's already shown well at AAA plus another 45 or better prospect before I would move either of them. That may be more than they're worth so I most likely keep both. Festa is off the table for 2 reasons - his value is down now because of the injury and I think he could be one of the serious back end relievers that we desperately need. For the right return I would consider moving SWR, Bradley, or Rojas. Having said that, I think SWR and Bradley may be better traded mid-season if they have a good first half. Good post and good concepts. I know its hard to come up with good content right now given the lack of activity by the team and the overall outlook, so I appreciate the effort.

I think the question is how proficient he is at 1B. That's where the opening is on the team. I couldn't find any stats on how good he is at 1B so I just don't know. In the OF, Andujar is a poor OF with a strong arm, just like Wallner. The other alternative is to have Andujar, Clemens and Wallner essentially form a three headed entry at RF/1B/DH/bench bat. I don't like that much because I want RF and LF to be young er guys learning their way in 2026, with Martin the LF. Bottom line for me is that I like Andujar as a hitter and as a signing IF he can play a competent 1B. If not we really have no place for him.

Given that Toronto picked up Dylan Cease and Cody Ponce already this off season, I think it's very unlikely Varland will back into the rotation. At this point Toronto doesn't have room for Barrios in the rotation any more, much less a failed starter like Varland. Louie is a late inning non-closer reliever in MLB. That's what he is. It's a valuable role, less valuable than a starter or closer, but still valuable and in his case, it's even more valuable because it's likely he can fill that role for 5-6 years. If you want to evaluate the trade, that's what we gave up. If Roden and Rojas are both average or better MLB players for several years, we win. If one is a very good or better player and one washes out, we win. If one is a back end of the 26 man roster guy and the other washes out or if both wash out, we lose. If they are both averagish guys for 2-3 years, it's a wash. Way too early to know the answer.

I think that you have the analysis right but I slightly disagree with your conclusion because of the contending window context. The Twins traded some win now type players for prospects and payroll savings. My view is that was a realistic, albeit painful, evaluation of the 2025 mid season roster. We weren't going anywhere but likely down and that roster was not going to be a contending roster in 2026 either. We gave up 4 useful players in the short term, including one star in Duran, a very good player in Varland, and 2 solid/good but not very good or elite players. In return, we got basically 11 prospects (I don't count Outman as a prospect), and 1 MLB level player in Bradley. I look at the prospects and think that at least 2-3 of them plus Bradley and Outman will be with the MLB club for a big part of 2026. I count 7 to 8 that are possible MLB contributors by 2027 (if there is a season in 2027), and another 2 that should be contributors by 2028. If we get 4-5 solid or better MLB players out of the 11 plus Outman, it's a big win for the Twins. 3-4 is a slight win, less than that a loss. I think the odds are in favor of a win but one never knows. Much as I hated the selloff, in retrospect some upheaval was the right thing to do. That roster had to be re-set, if not torn down and rebuilt. I personally think Bradley will be a 4/5 starter this year and could be a #3 by 2027. I think Rojas and Abel will be at the #3 starter level or better by 2027/28, and between Tait and Jimenez, we may have our catching tandem by 2028. Mendez and Roden could be players or complete washouts, same for Gallagher and Armstrong but we'll know by 2027 at the latest on all 4. By 2027/28 Correa and Jax will be trending down or retired, so the timelines work pretty well. You're right, the wild card is the money. If the Twins spend on $15-20M on decent free agents for 2026 or 2027, big win for us because those FAs basically replace Correa's salary. If ownership pockets the savings, it's only a win of one of the prospects turns into an All-Star and 3-4 others into solid MLB players.

I agree these are realistic signings but it's hard to get excited about any of these guys except possibly Weaver. That's before considering Hawkins public spat with Kahnle and Finnegan being on record saying he wants to go back to Detroit. I do think we need at least one experienced RP but I think it's much more likely to be someone like one of the Rogers twins, Caleb Theilbar, Drew Pomeranz, or Danny Coulombe. Next year is a development year, so why not develop in the BP as well? Start the year with Festa and Prielipp in the MLB bullpen and Raya or John Klein closing in St. Paul. The MLB bullpen starts the year with Sands, Topa, Ohl, Funderburk, Orze, Festa, Prielipp, and one free agent - my vote is Tayler Rogers or Coulombe, but I could live with Theilbar. The idea is to pick up a LH who can pitch high leverage. Try Festa as the closer. He's a high strikeout guy with a good changeup and a high spinning slider. His shoulder may not be able to handle a starting workload and he's been passed by SWR and Bradley, and maybe by Matthews, Rojas, and Abel. That puts guys like Sands and Funderburk in late inning, non-closing roles, and lets Topa, Ohl, Orze, and Prielipp handle middle relief and multi-inning assignments. Pick up a LH FA who can pitch high leverage and you have the outlines of a competent bullpen. Even better is Festa's nickname - "The Slim Reaper" is a great, dare I say perfect, nickname for a closer.

I'm one of the people that likes Martin and I agree entirely with you. Martin is not the backup CF, he's not a super UTL guy, he's a corner OF whose path to regular playing time is as a solid average, high OBP guy who is above average in in the corner OF and can play CF for a few innings here or there and not embarrass himself. He was that guy for the last 2 months of the 2025 season, the first time he's really gotten the chance to play every day. His performance last year should give him a shot to continue this year as the every day LF unless and until his bat falls off or his defense badly regresses. If he can hit .280/.375/.365 like he did last year, he's a starter. If he raises that SLG to even around .400 and/or can steal 25-35 bases at an 85% success rate, he's a locked in starter for the next few years. If his hitting stats regress to the .253/.318/352 he hit in 2024, he's a 4th or 5th OF. If they regress more, he's a DFA. My point here is not to "anoint" Martin or even say play him come hell or high water, it's to give him a real chance next year. A real chance means playing him almost every day for at least a couple or months or half a season and sticking with him when he has his inevitable ups and downs. Platooning him with a guy who hit .150 last year is not a real shot. Martin got his chance last hear and he performed. We need to reward that by keeping it going if we can. There are plenty of opportunities in RF and at 1B for all of these "can't miss" prospects we have to come up and perform like Martin did (or better) and earn there own shot. Let's not "anoint" Emma, GG, Roden, or Jenkins. Let's give them a shot too and play the guys who actually perform. So far that's Martin. Start the season with Buxton in CF, Martin in LF, and one or more of Roden, Emma, GG, or Jenkins in RF (or Roden at 1B) and make Wallner the DH playing RF 1-2 days a week. The Twins aren't likely playoff contenders in 2026, let's FIND OUT WHAT WE HAVE.

I could see Martin hitting 9 aka the second leadoff. I just don’t like Buxton leading off. He is the one middle of the order bat we have. He should be hitting 2 or 3.

I don't understand why everyone is looking to platoon Martin or reduce him to a #4 OF after his performance last season. The man hit .282/.374/.365, stole 11 bases, and was either 3 or 5 OAA in the field depending on where you get the number. That is a starting OF on pretty much any MLB team outside of LA or NY. His performance was a step up improvement over 2024. In other words, he is progressing the way you like to see a guy up from AAA progress. He should be next year's leadoff hitter with Keaschall hitting 2 and Buxton 3. Now maybe last year was a flash in the pan for Martin but he earned the starting job out of the gate. I just don't get why so many people here want to put him on the bench when he is the second best hitting OF we have and a good fielder in LF. Roden, on the other hand, has conquered AAA but hasn't shown anything yet at the MLB level. He should get a shot given his AAA mastery, but not at the expense of Martin. His shot should be at 1B at the expense of Clemens, as the backup CF, or at the expense of Wallner in RF, with Wallner moving to the primary DH spot IF Roden shows he can hit MLB pitching. Benching a guy like Martin who has shown he can hit MLB pitching so Roden can play is just insane, particularly when the other two spots he plays are manned by a guy who hit .213/.281/.434(.715) in Clemens, and a guy who hit .202 with a 30% plus SO rate who can't field the position in Wallner. Clemens is a utility guy with some power, lousy BA, and big SO rate. Wallner is a power guy whose defense profiles him to the DH spot. No scholarships, hometown favorites, or nice 30 year old stories. Play your best players. Martin was one of our best players for the last 2 months of 2025. Let's see if that continues on 2026. I do think Roden will get a shot next season in RF or at 1B. A day or two a week in LF is fine too. The Twins OF next year should be Buxton in CF and Martin in LF, both pretty much every day. with RF manned by the ST winner between Roden, GG, Emma, and Jenkins, with Wallner DHing 3-4 days a week and in RF 1-2 days a week. Let's not play Wallner every day in RF or Clemens at 1B, let's actually try to get better.

Not exactly if these players are who I think they are. Player A can play 1B and was one of the 3 finalists for the Gold Glove award at 1B. Player B is a LH hitting DH only; he is a poor OF and can't hit LH pitching. Player A fits the 2026 Twins and beyond; Player B does not. We should try to trade FOR Player A, and should try to trade AWAY Player B.

I don't have any more information than anyone else, but I still have a prediction as to what the Twins will do this offseason based on what we've seen so far. The answer is almost nothing. I predict they will trade Larnach for either (1) another team's arb salary conundrum like Spencer Steer (my hope) or Ryan Mountcastle, maybe even in a 3-way trade where the Reds/Orioles get prospects and a third team gets Larnach, (2) an averageish middle reliever, or (3) prospects at the AA or lower level. They will sign one or two veteran relievers who cost $3m a year or less. That's it. I think we are looking at the 2026 Twins roster with the changes above. Payroll around $100 million. Get ready for a boring off season. Oh, and by the way, unless we're going to spend real money on a younger, quality free agent (seems unlikely), I'm fine with this approach. I think we have enough to be average/competitive IF we keep our current starting pitching, shore up the BP, and see real improvement from 3-4 guys. Let's see if the younger players can play for half the season. Maybe we catch lightning in a bottle, maybe we fall flat on our face. If we are out of it in July, that's the time to trade starting pitching.

Agreed. I'd like to see them try to swing a Larnach for Spencer Steer trade with the Reds, as others have mentioned. I'd even be willing to throw in a prospect swap where they get a higher rated one than we do to make that happen. Steer becomes the primary 1B with Clemens as a UTL on the bench. Steer was a gold glove finalist at 1B and hits some.

Easy call to do this for the reasons you stated. Prielipp is MLB ready but not as a starter. Raya may not be, but he isn't getting any better as a starter so he has to go to the BP. We have openings, let's give them a shot.