LA Vikes Fan

Hope you're right, but we haven't seen Lee's bat play at the MLB level. He was affirmatively BAD at the plate last year with a .585 OPS in his 179 ABs. Does his defense make up for that on a team that can't score? Wouldn't it be better for him to spend 2-4 weeks at AA, show he can hit there and has knocked the rust off, and then call him up? Defense is important but hitting is much more important for a team that's 28th in BA, 29th in OPS, and 28th in slugging %. There's a better option - call up Luke Keaschall. He hit in Spring Training, hit last year in AA, and is hitting well in AAA so far. Give him a chance and give him a chance NOW. We'll know if he's overmatched by the time Lee is ready to come up. If he's hitting, find him ABs at 2B and DH after Lee comes back up. If not, he goes back down for Lee. What this article really shows is that there is room for anybody at AAA that the team thinks can hit MLB pitching. We have at least 4 available spots - the 3 guys mentioned plus Keirsey. I'd love to see Keirsey can a chance to play and hit, but if he isn't going to get that chance bring up Martin and give him a chance to play. The bottom line is that what we're doing now is not working and there isn't much evidence to suggest that's going to change much. Harrison Bader is not going to OPS above .900, he'll wind up much closer to .700. Wallner may stay where he is and Buxton, Larnach, and/or Correa may come back to hitting like a #5 or #6 guy in a good lineup, but what else is there? Miranda and Julien may re-set at the MLB level but are more likely to need a AAA reset. We have no hitter who needs to play every day clogging up the DH spot. We don't need a new lineup order, we need new guys. Lee might help, but the stats from last year suggest Martin might help more since he hit better. Keaschall has shown well in the Minors, give him a chance. I'm not thrilled with basically sorting out during the regular season but I think that's exactly what we need to do now. Gaspar, Julien and maybe even Miranda have had their chance and failed. Get Martin and Keaschall up for Gaspar and Kiersey and give them a real shot. If Keirsey is going to stay, play him, and bring up Martin for Julien. Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result. That's what we're doing. By the way, Albert Einstein didn't say that. It was first from a Narcotics Anonymous pamphlet published in 1981. I find that ironic - Addiction to the status quo may indeed be the problem.

Agreed. There is NO track record so far that suggest Lee will help energize the offense. In fact, his track record suggest we need to hide him at the #9 spot if we want to take advantage of his defense. The idea that Lee coming back will help the offense is ludicrous. We have a much better (so far) 2B candidate in AAA in Keaschall. Let's get him up now and give him a 2 week run while Lee gets back into hitting shape at AAA, assuming that's even possible for Lee. Let's find out if Keaschall can hit. If he can, it's a great shot in the arm. If not, Lee will be ready to take his roster spot. Gaspar goes. Keaschall simply can't be any worse than Gaspar and there is a good chance that he'll be better.

I agree that young players are unlikely to save the day but I don't see other options. There aren't any good hitting free agents out there and it would be tough to get value in a trade right now. While the season isn't over, it's definitely starting to circle the drain. It's not just the 3-7 record, it's really the thought that our record matches the eye test against a pretty weak starting schedule. The team is showing very little life and very little that gives one hope for improvement, much less the complete turnaround necessary to contend. I do think there is at least one player that showed enough in ST to given a shot now - Luke Keaschall. He's playing 2B in AAA and we can DH him some if we need to be careful with the elbow. 2B is a black hole for the Twins. Castro is not really hitting and is better suited to play around the IF. We also need him at 3B right now and maybe some at SS. Julien isn't hitting at all and is a butcher at 2B. Needs to go back to AAA for a reset. Gaspar does not belong on an MLB roster. Lee is 2-3 weeks away and hasn't shown he can hit MLB pitching. I am not anywhere near sold that's he's even ready now, much less that he would inject life into a lineup. Call up Keaschall, play him 4 days a week at 2B, 2 at DH (we don't have a regular DH), and option/DFA Gaspar. It's no panacea, but it's a start and we need a jolt badly.

What's even worse is that you don't really see a lot that gives you hope that many of the under .230 guys will end the year over .250. Correa and Buxton, most likely. Larnach and Jeffers, probably. After that, looks pretty grim.

Agree with you on the quality of the lineup. This just isn't a very good team on offense or, outside of Correa, Buxton, and Bader, on defense. We have a group of guys who should be hitting 5, 6 or 7, hitting 2, 3 and 4. Maybe Lewis would help if he's really the 2023 Lewis, not the second half of 2024 Lewis. Maybe Wallner will OPS over .900 and be moved to the middle of the lineup. Maybe France becomes his 2021 or even 2022 self again (or maybe I can meet and bed a supermodel). It's tough because it's hard to see from where the needed offensive improvement is going to come from. I know it's very early. It's just hard to see any light at the end of this tunnel. Hope I'm wrong.

Makes sense. This was the logical move.

Slight nit - Gaspar and France aren't THE problem but they are part of THE problem. Both went 0-2 again today and are hitting .111 and .188 respectively. Yes, you can add in Miranda and the slow starts from Correa and Buxton. The difference is those 3 have track records of production in the recent past. Gaspar and France do not. Bader is meh at the plate, but that's exactly what we expected from him - very good defense, meh offense. Time to shift things up for the trip. Gaspar DFA/Option, Keaschall up. Julien goes to 1B/DH full time including starting in the field over France. Keaschall plays 2B 5 days a week until he either wins the job or shows us he needs to go back. At least a 2 week run. At this point, no reason not to give it a try.

Jax should not be closing. He has a poor save percentage. It may just be psychological but it's real; he doesn't do well in save situations. Bad usage of Duran and Jax by Baldelli. He should know better - he tried this last year and it didn't work well. Also, time to give up on Paddack as a starter. We have better options in Festa and Matthews. Should be interesting to see what they do with the pitching staff given the three short starts in a row and overuse of the bullpen. The Twins need fresh arms bad. My play is Varland is optioned to AAA AND McCaughan goes to DFA. Up come Matthews and maybe Blewett since Dobnak just went 5 good innings today and Festa pitched Friday. Tomorrow is SWR and Matthews on a piggyback that adds up to at least 7 innings after which one of Matthews, SWR or Paddack goes down. I'd love a plan for the lineup but I just don't see that group changing any time soon. This could get very ugly very fast.

I think this is a good analysis. I’ve never been on the fire Rocco bandwagon, but I’m looking into booking passage. This team looks very lifeless. I think the talent level is not as high as we sometimes thought but I also think that the team is playing far below its capabilities. I would be a favor of infusing the team with some talent that is currently in AAA and changing managers. I think if we wait until mid season for that it may be too late. The good news is that the division looks pretty bad this year so we can let things play out a little while, but it’s hard to see how things are going to change.

I’m with you here with some minor nits. You’re right that France, Bader, Castro, and Larnach are not every day players in an MLB contending team. They would be a good bench for that team. Julien and Miranda are maybes at AAA on that team as is Lee, who also isn’t a MLB starting caliber player yet. The bigger problem is that the starting caliber players we have are complimentary hitters with no middle of the order bats, except for maybe Lewis. Buxton and Correa are glove first players who can hit some, not offensive leaders. Wallner and Jeffers are nice young(ish) hitters. What we have is a collection of hitters who should hit 5, 6, or later in a good lineup and no one good enough to hit 2, 3, or 4. Again. Hard to fix that.

I don't think it's tenacity or will, I think it's a lack of high end hitting talent. Here's my view: (1) A consistent offense has consistent quality hitters in the 2-5 spots. We have Correa (usually a consistent hitter, now hitting .080), Buxton (streaky, should be hitting 5 or 6), Larnach ( improving but unproven, also should be hitting 5 or 6), and Ty France (30 year old who OPS'd .700 and .670 the last 2 years and is hitting .192, should be hitting 7 or 8 or on the bench). (2) Wallner is out of place and out of sorts leading off. He should also be hitting 5 or 6 (see Larnach above). (3) The catching position has Jeffers, who is at best inconsistent, really kind of an average hitter for a catcher (read mediocre for any other position), and Vasquez, who can't hit at all. (4) Bader had 3 HRs and 8 RBis! He's also hitting .211 and has a career .241/.305/.395 (.700) slash line. His current OPS will fall fast when (not if) he stops hitting HRS at a 100+ per year pace, probably back to his typical high .600s or low.700s. Fine as a good glove 4th OF or even ok as a regular hitting 9th, but no savior for the offense or frankly even much help. (5) Only Castro is hitting of the rest of the bunch, and beyond him only Julien is hitting the ball hard. Maybe Miranda will come back, but Gaspar is great moustache on an aging AAA player and Keirsey? Who knows, he's had all of 16 MLB Abs with a sparking .489 OPS. The bottom line is that this team will not have a top 5 offense with the players we have on the current 26 man roster and will only have a middle of the pack offense if Correa, Buxton and Lewis are all playing and all hitting. Maybe top 10 if those 3 and Wallner and Larnach are hitting. That's just the reality of this team. Odds of all that happening are pretty slim. The solution? Not sure there is one, but here's what I would try: (1) Move Castro to the leadoff spot. Larnach hits 2, Correa 3, Buxton 4, and Wallner 5. Lewis slots in at 3 when he comes back and Correa moves to 6 unless he's really hot. (2) Call up Keaschall and give him a run at 2B. Demote Gaspar, move Julien to 1B/DH and actually play him there 5 days a week for a couple of weeks. France to the bench or DH. (3) Play Keirsey at the combined expense of Bader, Larnach or Wallner. Give him some ABs and see if he can hit enough and run enough to ignite this team. if you aren't sold enough on him to try that, back to AAA and onto the trade block. This is not working and frankly there no real signs or history that suggests that it's going to work. The lineup is out of balance and lacks enough consistent hitters. I'm getting ready for a long season of a lot of 5-2 games against us.

I think you're right on Varland. He's the weak man in the bullpen right now and probably the first to go when Stewart comes back if things continue this way. Varland is really a one inning high octane guy, so he's holding down Stewart's spot. We do need a long man and so far Dobnak has filled that role. He could also be a spot starter or a 2-3 inning opener if we need one. He really could be a good guy to have if this new pitch helps him continue to be effective. All of this is great, but none of it will matter if we can't find at least 2-3 guys who can hit.

How about Keaschall May 1 if he's hitting in AAA and things continue for the team? Give him a month to get back to playing 2B and get him up for a shot.

Got to agree with you. Gaspar should be the first guy gone when Lewis or Lee is ready to come back.

This is the kind of start to a season that gets managers fired...

Probably too early to panic. Still, this series was pretty brutal. One tweak I would suggest - get Wallner out of the leadoff spot. He didn't hit well there in ST and he isn't hitting well there now. It may be a psychological thing only but whatever it is, he isn't loving the role so far. The lucky thing is that we have a replacement - Willi Castro or even Julien (if he actually gets to play). Hit Wallner 2, Correa 3, Buxton 4, and Larnach 5, hit Castro 1 against righties, 7 against or bench against lefties with Bader moving up to 1. Give Keirsey some ABS in the OF. Keep mixing things up until you find something that works and gets the boys excited. By the way, completely agree on Miranda. Bench time for him with Castro moving to 3B (D up), and Julien to 2B (D down).

Good article. This encapsulates where the Twins really are as a team. They have enough talent to be a true contender if everything clicks (I define a "true contender" as a team has a chance to go to the World Series). Conversely, they have a relatively small margin for error. More so than in past years for sure because of the improved depth of young players getting them more lottery tickets for someone to break out, but still a relatively small margin for error because they won't go out and spend money to fill holes when they appear. This group is it; there is no cavalry coming over the hill to save us. I think the Twins best chance to get to the World Series is the survive and get hot scenario. That starts with the Twins wining 85 – 92 games and taking the Central. Step 2 is they then get hot at the plate and are able to start one of their top three starters almost every playoff game, maybe combined with a lucky match up or one of the best teams getting knocked out early in an upset. All of a sudden they're in the ALCS against a team they can beat like Kansas City, Texas, or Houston, and voilà! They get lucky and make it to the World Series. Is this likely? Of course not. Is it within the reasonable realm of possibility? Absolutely. So I'm saying there's a chance . . .

You got that right. Dobnak is almost as good as a guy with options in that way.

All good points. Paddack has looked better than most in ST. Having said that, he's an injury waiting to happen and has never been consistent. I would be thrilled with 20-25 starts, 125 or so innings, an ERA under 4.25, and a team winning record in games he starts. I think that may be possible. We just have to plan for at least one IL stint and at least 4 weeks of unavailability over the 6 month season.

Agree on all 4 points. The Twins are worth LESS than Baltimore, not more. This reminds of the potential seller in a declining home market who says, "what do you mean we can't list my house for what I want, my neighbor got that two years ago and my house's much nicer"! This is a tough market for mid-level and below baseball teams. No TV money or logical path to getting more outside of the coasts, A lack of consensus and will to change the sport's economic structure to help less fortunate teams. A commissioner who does not appear to be well respected in business circles and has little to no power over the richer teams. I could go on and on. Lot's of red flags here. Hopefully the Pohlads will find a rich guy who wants a sports team on his resume/trophy case who will buy and invest in the tea, I thought Ishbia might be that guy. Hope there's another one, because buying the Twins as a business proposition is high risk/ low reward from a business standpoint.

The high debt shouldn't be a big surprise if we think about it. The team didn't fire staff or cut back on minor league services during Covid-19, a time when there was no gate or concession revenue. They don't draw very well and there seems to be an aversion by some to going into Downtown Minneapolis. The bottom fell out of their TV revenue last year. Put all that together with the fact that while the payroll hasn't increased and is small compared to the coastal teams, it is and has been the highest in the Division and you get a team that has probably been operating in the red for the last couple of years, at least. Hence, the need to take on debt. It could be worse, the Twins could do what Pittsburg, St. Louis, Cleveland, Tampa, Miami, etc. have done and drastically cut payroll to match revenue. Baseball is a tough operating business to make money on without high attendance and significant TV revenue. It's particularly tough in a mid-market city where you can't charge $150 - $200 for a decent seat at the game while drawing 3.5 million fans or more, and you don't get even a $50 million for your TV rights, much less the $100 million plus certain teams get. To make matters worse, there isn't real estate opportunity in the surrounding land like there was for the Wilfs when buying the Vikings, and there is no TV white night on the horizon to open up the money taps and make everything better. Look, I am no fan of the Pohlads and can't wait until they sell the team. I do think they are caught between a rock and a hard place. The value in owning a mid-market sports franchise (other than the NFL) is the value appreciation you realize when you sell. They missed the great selling window 4-5 years ago and are now selling a good but not great team with poor attendance and no TV revenue to speak of into a very uncertain market surrounded by a very uncertain economic situation overall. The most logical buyer is a guy like Steve Cohen of the Mets who is incredibly wealthy, doesn't care if he makes money on an operating level, loves baseball, and is driven by ego and competitiveness to win. There aren't very many of those guys out there and I don't think any of them live in Minnesota. I think a sale will only happen if one of those guys gets interested or the Pohlads drop the price. I'm afraid that neither of those things will happen any time soon.

MLB Trade Rumors is reporting (from Betsy Helfand ) that Keirsey and Gaspar made the team to open 2025. They also speculate that locks in Julien on the team. Martin is being sent to St. Paul. Good decisions in my view. I hope all three get enough playing time while Lee and Lewis are out so we can make an intelligent decision as to who to send down when the time comes.

MIB trade Rumors is reporting (from Betsy Helfand ) that Keirsey and Gaspar made the team to open 2025. They also speculate that locks in Julien on the team. Martin is being sent to St. Paul. Good decisions in my view. I hope all three get enough playing time while Lee and Lewis are out so we can make an intelligent decision as to who to send down when the time comes.

And Wallner, Larnach, and Miranda? It very well may be. 3 of those 4 have to step up for this team to be championship competitive.

Isn't this why Lee dropped far enough in the draft so the Twins could get him? He's got good bat to ball skills, doesn't strike out much, and was projected to move up quickly. On the other hand, he was projected to have below average power, isn't very athletic by MLB standards, is slow, and doesn't take walks. In other words, classic high floor, low ceiling player. I think what we've seen so far validates those projections. He's good enough to be in MLB at least as a bench player on a good team or a starter on a bad one, and he could be as much as an above average regular but he's unlikely to be a star. I think the best case scenario is that he's an above average fielding 2b or 3b (not a SS) who hits 6 or 7 in a solid batting order. A solid complimentary player. Nothing wrong with that but he's not going to carry a team or anything close. Julien has a higher offensive ceiling but a much lower overall floor because he's a butcher in the field. Maybe with time and practice he can improve to average at 2B or 1B but that's probably it and may be a long shot. On the other hand, he could hit .280 plus with a .375 OBP and give us 15-20 HRs a year with an .800 plus OPS who hits in the top 5 in the order. That is within the reasonable range of outcomes and that's a guy who HAS to play somewhere if you can get that out of him. Hitters like that are hard to find. So pick your poison. Lee gives you a more comfortable, predictable range of outcomes. Julien gives you a higher upside but could crap out completely. What do you like better, that comfortable pair of jeans or shoes or that fashion forward suit that's a pain to deal with but impresses the ladies? Frankly, I think we need both. The good news is that with the Lewis injury we'll have a month to see the range of outcomes before there's a decision that has to be made.