LA Vikes Fan

I agree that this is a "make it or break it" year for Lee both because this is the year he will exceed that 1000-1200 ABs where you're still developing and it may be his last chance to hold off Culpeper and/or Marek for the job. Having said that, we need to give him the shot and see what we have here. That means 400-500 plus ABs and 100 plus games at SS. We aren't going anywhere this year and Culpeper and Marek aren't just a couple of months away. This is his opportunity. Let's make it a real opportunity, I felt like this year was a "prove it opportunity" year for at least 5-6 guys on the roster before Pablo got hurt. Now, it is absolutely an opportunity/make it or break it year for AT LEAST the following guys - Lee, Martin, Keaschall, Wallner, Bradley, SWR, and Lewis, and that may expand to include Roden, Matthews, and Adams depending on injury and whether the other guys perform. But you can't give guys an opportunity to make it or break it of they don't get to play regularly. Right now, we are poised to give all of those guys a real shot. Don't change that structure. I want to see an everyday lineup with Martin in LF, Keaschall at 2B, Lewis at 3B, Wallner in RF or at DH, and Lee at SS at least through mid-June pretty much almost regardless of results. Don't replace these guys with average vets like Giolito to squeeze out an extra 2 wins or replace them with the next shiny unproven object like Abel, GG, Emma, Culpeper, etc. until they've had their chance. Give them that chance now, If they don't take advantage, then pivot to a full scale rebuild in July but not until then.

This sucks in pretty much every way. Such is the risk when you sign pitchers to multi-year contracts. It seem rare that any team gets good years throughout the contract. There's usually an injury or two that causes at least one of those years to crater. I absolutely would not sign Lucas Giolito or anyone like him. This is now the opportunity to see what level of pitching depth we actually have. Ryan, Ober and SWR are locks; Bradley probably is too (assuming no more injuries). The door is now open for Matthews and Abel, probably both since there will be a 10-15 day IL stint for at least one or two of the top 5 if not all 5 of them. I would still move Festa to the BP but my bet is he will stay as a starter for awhile given all of the veteran bullpen guys we have signed. With Banda, Hendricks, Rogers, Chafin, and Merryweather, there's plenty of mediocrity to fill up the pen without Festa.

I'm a little surprised that Jeffers and Peredes have a similar BBTV. I would have guessed that Jeffers was 2 or 3 points higher since he competently plays a tougher position. Maybe the difference in contract length with Jeffers a FA after this season plays a role in that, but it still seems off to me. Having said that, I wouldn't be opposed to this kind of deal IF Peredes can actually play 1B as opposed to standing out there with a glove and is a meaningful defensive upgrade from Bell. I guess it would all depend on the secondary return for Jeffers and Larnach. I personally would prefer a relief pitcher to a prospect.

This probably doesn't work for the top 3 starters on the Twins, but I could see an argument for this system maybe for SWR or Bradley. I could see a situation where the Lopez, Ryan, and Ober starts are handled the traditional way and the SWR starts in particular are basically SWR for 5-6 innings, Festa or Matthews for 3-4 innings. Sounds interesting in theory but very hard to implement and really prevents SWR from becoming a solid #3 guy who you hope can go 7 innings, happy if he goes 6, and expect at least 5 kind of guy, Seems like a bad idea given how well he pitched in the second half of 2025. I get the concept, but I just don't see this working.

I agree with your top 6, all locks unless injured. That 7th or 8th man may be Dan Altavilla. Had a 2.48 ERA, with a 1.17 WHIP, but a 5.45 FIP last year for the White Sox. 29 innings in 28 appearances. 95-98 MPH fastball, power slider, 97 MPH sinker, decent change up. 2025 was by far his best year. Pitched 7th or 8th inning as a set up guy, occasional closer. He's on a minor league deal. I really think the 7th and 8th BP spots will come down to a battle between Hendricks, Altavilla, and Festa/Prielipp IF they decide to move the young guys to the bullpen now. Given Festa's TOS which will limit his innings and his lack of starting success, I think he goes to the pen. Interesting stat - Festa first time through the order holds hitters to a .134/.194/.179 (.374) line. Second and third times through - .393/.456/787 (1.243) batting line. 25% K, 8% BB. He's been passed in the starting pecking order by Bradley, SWR, Matthews, and probably Abel. The stats and his physical limitations scream Bullpen to me. I think he's the closer in waiting. Give Prielipp one more year to show he can be a starter; convert Festa to a back end bullpen piece now.

He's been better these last 2 years with the Dodgers and has successfully pitched some high leverage innings. You're right that his ERA and FIP was bad when he started and frankly his FIP still isn't that good. That could be a red flag given how poor our IF defense was last year. Still, he's shown himself to be a competent reliever which is a big plus for this bullpen, IMHO.

Disagree with you on Banda, but time will tell. I think the Bullpen is now pretty much set except for two spots. The group is Sands, Topa, Rogers, Funderburk, Banda, and Orze (3 RH, 3 LH), plus two of Dan Altavilla, Liam Hendricks, David Festa, and Connor Preilipp. It also would not surprise me if the Twins made one more trade for a decent but not great reliever by trading Larnach, or signed a still available FA like Coulombe, Beeks, or even a reunion with Jorge Lopez. If things stay as they are, the most likely result, Altavilla makes the team with a decent ST given his 2.48 ERA last year in 28 appearances with the White Sucks. Hendricks will make the team if he shows something in the WBC and/or ST and we're done. Festa and Prielipp start in AAA and are available when one of the vets stinks or gets hurt along with Adams, Klein, Bowman, Raya, Morris, etc. Sands is the initial closer but more of a closer by committee with Sands, Rogers, Topa, and Funderburk getting most of the late inning work. Not a great bullpen by any stretch, but possibly functional and with at least some depth. We could use one more proven guy - Coulombe is still out there - and it's a top 2/3 but not top 1/2 bullpen. You know, kind of like the rest of the team. Now to find a shortstop . . .

This is a good move. I live in LA and Banda has been a good, pretty relievable reliever for the Dodgers the last two years. Not only that, they haven't been afraid to use him in higher leverage situations; he's not just a middle inning guy. The only concern is that his ERA is better than his FIP so he may have benefitted from an above average Dodger defense. The Twins, not so good on defense. Still, good floor raising signing and one that could have a late inning impact.

Thanks for this, Sure makes you hope that we're talking to Danny Coulombe, Shelby Miller, or Andrew Chafin, doesn't it? I don't care that two of those three are left-handed. We just need guys that can get people out. I would actually be even satisfied with Paul Sewald, Jalen Beeks, or Jose LeClerc at this point. I will say that this reinforces my thinking that Michael Kopech isn't worth the 2 year $10 million-$12 million contract that he is apparently seeking. That looks like a commitment we shouldn't be making.

I have to agree with Fire Dan Gladden on both counts. This is a classic lottery ticket; a formerly effective relief pitcher coming back from injury. It might be a complete waste of time or we could wind up with a useful guy that helps the bullpen for a couple of years ala Caleb Theilbar. Maybe more importantly, we should all be cheering for Liam Hendricks. The man had cancer followed by TJ surgery and is trying to come back. Hard not to root for that guy. I also agree on the whole level of vitriol issue. I don't read the comments in the Athletic because most of them are either two guys insulting each other and claiming they must be on one political extreme or the other, which apparently means you have no value as a human because you don't agree with me, or brilliance such as "the GM sucks", "that player will never amount to anything even though he's 23 years old and is just starting out", or "I'm smarter than everybody else and you're a moron if you don't agree with me." Maybe I'm old school, but to me one of the real beauties of this site is that I've learned things from reading others' comments, people actually listen to each other and potentially adjust their position/thinking based on comments, and people actually try to provide useful information. It's kind of like going to or watching a game with a real knowledgeable fan who happens to root for the same team that you do; it can be a really fun, enriching experience. It would be great if it stayed that way rather than yelling at each other. I can get that by tuning into any political website.

Ah yes, another day, another bullpen discussion. The only thing that changes is we are another day closer to accepting the reality that there isn't any cavalry riding over that hill to make the bullpen better. This year's bullpen will be based on what we have in house right now. To me, the answer is becoming more and more obvious. At least 1 and probably 2 of our current group of "young starters" are going to be in the bullpen for most if not all of 2026. My view is that will be Festa and Prielipp. Both have at least one good secondary pitch, but the fastball has just not quite been good enough. A couple of ticks up on the fastball velocity from pitching in short stints may be the answer there. Both have injury issues that make it unlikely that they will be able to pitch more than 75-100 innings this year. That's just not enough from a starter. Both are at the age that they need to either show they can pitch in the Bigs or watch their prospect star fade. They are both really more suited to the bullpen at this stage and both could really help us. Klein and Morris could also help (especially since neither looks like they will make it as MLB starters), but I see them as the AAA depth with Adams for the inevitable injury needs. I would start both out in the AAA bullpen in high leverage spots to test their mettle. In sum. here's how I see things shaking out absent injuries in ST. SWR and Bradely are the #4 and #5 staters behind Lopez, Ryan and Ober, with Matthews, Abel, Rojas, CJ Culpepper, and maybe a FA castoff like Matt Bowman or someone we pick up on waivers as the AAA depth in that order. The Twins bullpen is Sands, Topa, Rogers, Orze, Funderburk, plus 3 from Dan Altavilla, Jackson Kowar, Festa and Prielipp, with the odd man out, Morris, Klein, Adams, Bowman, and Raya as the AAA depth in that order. A guy like Trent Baker or Mike Peredes could join the bullpen depth list and move up quickly in the order. Caterino is a complete wild card but starts at AAA and could be anywhere from hurt to the top of depth list. That's my prediction.

Well said. This inconsistency between the messaging and action is the thing that it most harming the Twins brand and credibility with the fan base, i.e., it's customers. One would assume that Tom Pohlad understands that as an experienced business person. What is incomprehensible to me is that there does not appear to be any effort to square the team's actions with its expressed intent or to provide any sort of long or even medium term vision to explain how the team plans to achieve the expressed goal of year-to-year competitiveness. Most of this is Business 101 so it's a little hard to understand why we are where we are. As result most fans are going to the negative conclusion that there really isn't going to be an effort to achieve year-to-year competitiveness if that effort requires spending money, which it clearly does, and that management's statements are all simply business platitudes designed to get people to buy tickets. There's an easy solution – make a plan, tell people what it is, and stick to it. If that plan is simply to tear down the existing team and start over with a rebuild, so be it. If the plan is to keep the existing core, augment that core in some way, and try to be competitive in a short term, that could also work. Just explain how the team plans to go forward. If the plan is to simply bring back what we already have and hope for a better result, just explain why you think that better result is likely. The absence of any of these things actually being said is not only killing interest in the team, it is likely killing the effort of the players themselves. As someone who played on a number of teams in high school and college, there's nothing worse than playing on a team that has no underlying belief in its own ability to compete. Yet that appears to be what the Twins are creating here.

I like both ideas, although I agree with other posters that it's hard to see the Mets being interested given their existing pitching depth. Having said that, the description makes it seem like Baty and Vientos play the same basic positions - 3B, 1B, and DH. One of those is now occupied long term on the Mets with Bichette moving to 3B. It almost seems like they should choose between the two and trade one. The obvious one to trade would be Vientos. I would give up Morris, Rojas, or even one of them plus a 20-30 prospect for Vientos. If the price was Matthews or Festa, I would expect a Mets pitching prospect in the 15-20 range or an established 7th or 8th inning reliever to come back with Vientos. To me, Abel and Prielipp are off the table.

I think signing Kopech is a very interesting.... pipe dream. If one believes what you read, he's looking for at least 2 years at $11-15m a year and the Yankees, Giants, and Tigers are interested (the Tigers may be out now after losing to Skubal and signing Valdez). It's hard to imagine (a) the Twins paying him in that range, especially considering his injury history, and (b) him coming to Minnesota when he has teams that might contend interested without the Twins overpaying. Interesting thought experiment and I get that this site has to create off season content, but this is not happening unless every other team drops out. Maybe Liam Hendricks will look good in the WBC and be interested in a nostalgic reunion . . .

Agree here. Trading Jeffers would stink but probably makes sense unless we think there is a realistic hope of signing him to an extension. I do understand the business reasons to at least try to contend in the first half and then trade at the deadline, so maybe that's the plan. Still, it's hard to see a way that Jeffers is still with the Twins after July 30 (or Aug 4 since that's this year's deadline). Waaaay to early to decide that Keaschall is only going to be a bench bat based on analytics. Let's actually give him one healthy season before we chart out his future career with certainty. I believe in analytics, but there's way to much projection from small samples that goes on and this is a prime example of that.

Interesting analysis. In a way, this reminds me of the analysis regarding David Festa. Both Matthews and Festa have a very high-quality non-fastball option. Both, however, suffer as a starter because the fast ball just isn’t quite good enough to go through a major league banning order more than once. Both also have other secondary options, which are not so great but could be improved. The question then is to you move one or both to the bullpen and play to their strength by emphasizing their strong secondary pitch and gain a ticker two on the fastball by throwing it in shorter stance, or do you try to improve that fastball by either improving it’s cut or run or improving It’s control such that these guys can hit corners regularly? I do think the answer is different from the two primarily because of physical health. Festa‘s got a shoulder issue that is going to limit his innings in 2026. I would put him in the bullpen and then decide after 2026 whether to leave him there. I would leave Matthews as a starter, start him in Saint Paul to begin the season, and see if he can either improve the fastball or one of his other secondary offerings enough to be effective at the major league level.

Unfortunately, no options. Maybe we can sneak him through waivers late in Spring Training given that teams will have to add him to the 40 man. Sems like he either has a lights out ST or he's gone/in AAA. Still, not a bad return for Jhonny Perada. Basically a fair "trade" for both teams.

I agree. I think Adams and Klein are just placeholders for now. I'd love Kopech but he's looking for a multi-year deal and the Yankees and Giants are both interested. I except one more FA signing - either Paul Sewald, Tommy Kahnle, Ryan Brasier, someone like that who was once good and is now older or coming back from injury. My money is on Sewald. Evan Phillips would be a good signing but he had TJ in June 2025 and wouldn't be available until the second half of 2026. I expect Dan Altavilla to make the opening day roster - he's good when healthy, but breaks down after 30-40 innings - perfect replacement for Stewart. They will knock out Adams and Klein, both of whom are next men up at St. Paul and both of whom will see MLB action this year.

I've been beating on this drum for awhile now. Festa's shoulder issues and fastball issues all point towards him going to the Bullpen in a short relief, late inning role. He's also a guy whose batting average and SLG against goes up significantly the second time through the order. I think you've identified the real issue - his fastball isn't good enough to be a starter. But, add a couple of ticks to it and it may be good enough to be a strong reliever in combination with his change up and slider. I'd like to see Festa either break with the team in the bullpen and slowly work up to a late inning role or close at St. Paul for a month. I really think that's his best and highest use. By the way, I don't think he's the 6th starter - he's a least number 7 behind Matthews at 6 and may be 8 behind Abel at 7. that's another good reason to think about putting him in the BP to start out with.

You have to wonder what Dereck Shelton is thinking. The guy who he knew in 2019 and who hired him now just got fired. Is he safe and if so, is that just for now? this could rapidly spin out of control unless someone does some serious triage. Here's looking at you, Tom.

What the !? Falvey first, now Kwesi? Is this really happening or a parallel universe?

Agreed. Neither package paid by Texas or the Mets is particularly impressive. Both were all prospects all "hope", no substance. That's the kind of package you look for and take on July 31 (Aug 4 this year) when you're 10 games under .500 and out of contention. I cling to the belief that the plan is to see how things play out and if the first half shows a complete rebuild is necessary, then you trade off guys like Ryan, Lopez and/or Buxton, plus Bell, Caratini and Jeffers. I'm pretty confident that we can get a package as good or better than those two teams got at the deadline, especially for quality starting pitching with a year plus of control remaining like Lopez and Ryan. The risk is injury. It's a real risk but to me one worth taking to see if this team can perform for the first half.

Hey, you may be right but the man did well in the traditional counting stats last year - .280/.374/.365(.739), 11 steals in 15 attempts. In other words, he performed on the field. If he can raise the SLG to .400 he's a borderline All Star. Maybe he was the same guy in 2024 and 2025 but it's 2024 that's the production outlier, not 2025. Remember, the metrics you cite are intended to be predictive of actual production, they are not actually production stats themselves. As a result, like all predictive stats they can be misleading or simply not accurately predictive. You don' get extra wins for leading the league in Z-Swing rate. Martin is young and improving so give him some run. Let's not forget that he can actually field in LF. His primary competition - Larnach and Wallner - cannot. If any team needs to improve their defense it's your Minnesota Twins. This is the year to give Martin his make or break it shot. That means playing 5 days a week and facing both RH and LH pitching. If he performs and continues to play well in the field, we have a 27 year old starting OF at a minimum salary - the Holy Grail. If he craps out, we send him to AAA and hope to get him right or trade him. The dumbest thing to do would be to force him into a short side platoon role and miss the opportunity to see if he can be more. The first half of 2026 is all about finding out what we have. I mean, really finding out what we have by playing guys on the cusp every day. Martin, Lewis, Lee, and Keaschall should play every day. If they don't perform then go to the next guy like Jenkins, GG, Emma, or Culpeper. That's how you build a team - not by platooning guys with average MLB vets so you can to win 75 games instead of 70. Let's Build A Team!

Hard to justify spots for Larnach, Wallner, Wagaman, Matin, Bell, and Roden/Outman/Fedko. The others all have something we need - RH hitter, plays 1B (Wagaman), strong hitting track record, switch hitter (Bell), young on the way up, conquered AAA, with speed and defense (Roden), had a strong second half at MLB level, plays good defense (Martin), and 30 homer power with MLB track record (Wallner). Larnach is redundant to at least some of those skill sets, number 2 in those he has. and simply doesn't have any speed or defensive chops. Nice player but redundant and doesn't really add anything we don't already have. That's why he's the logical trade candidate. There is a logjam at least theoretically. Now someone could get hurt, not perform at all in ST, be traded, or step off the curb and get hit by a bus. It seems like at least one of those things should happen - except the last one of course. My guess is that the Twins will want to see where guys like Martin, Roden, Fedko, etc. are, and then decide on the odd man out unless and until a good trade opportunity arises. This actually makes sense from a roster building prospective. Nothing is set in stone (ever) and certainly not in February. Keeping options open is the best course. Larnach is a solid MLB player, at least at the plate. No reason to make a hasty decision on his future with the Twins yet.

A platoon at a position means that you have two guys there that aren't good enough to start. Martin looked like he is good enough to start in LF in August and September last year. No need for a LF platoon. Martin had a .374 OBP last year and 11 SBs in 15 attempts (73.3%) over 156 ABs. His career stats are a .341 OBP and 29 SBs in 40 attempts (72.5%). Admittedly, no power. I say we give him some run in the #1 or #9 hole and see if he can have an OBP over .350, steal 20 plus bases with a 80% or better steal rate, play above average LF defense, and actually help us score more runs. Larnach, on the other hand, looks like a LH DH getting about 300-400 ABs a year who only occasionally plays in the field (unless they're teaching him 1B), with some power. When he is in the filed he plays it poorly with a -4 OAA.. He and Wallner (also -4 OAA) can't be allowed to both be in the field at the same time. They could both play RF but neither hits LH pitching much so I don't know how that would work. Larnach is in a platoon all right (.758 OPS vs. RH pitching) - it's a DH platoon with Eric Wagaman (.783 OPS vs. LH pitching). Ah yes DH, there's a position where you can and should platoon.,