LA Vikes Fan

Moot point I guess if Civale is already going to the Pale Hose. Still, we're probably going to need somebody. I think Ober is looking at an IL stint soon to try to get his hip right. The Twins have 28 games left before the ASB break gives them 4 days off July 14-17. That's 5 starts from Ober's spot. May be he tries one more but I think he goes on the IL by at least June 20 to get a month off to get healthy. So who's that somebody? As the article points out, Lewis and Raya have been awful in AAA. McCaughan has been . . . ok?. . . and Dobnak pretty bad. I understand that Trane Baker just came up from AA but his stats there at least look promising. There some guys in AA with good stats, but I don't know anything about them. Do any of you guys think any of them are ready? Short of an overpay trade for Sandy Alcantra, it looks like we're going internal. My guess is McCaughan is going to get a chance unless Baker or Morris is deemed ready. Maybe McCaughan and Adams as an entry/piggyback for that spot? This could get ugly fast. Good thing we're hitting . . .

I agree except that I think this is a mid to high 80s win team - 83-89. There always seems to be a desire to "do something" at the deadline to make the team better, almost regardless of cost or opportunity. Other than trading a couple of 10-20 prospects for a guy like Sandy Alcantra (probably a pipe dream), there isn't likely to be a lot of value out there to get. Besides, we need a #3 or 4 hitter and a consistent #3 or 4 starter, and could use 1 more backend reliever. Those guys are really expensive and often times don't work out like the trade for Tyler Mahle. Getting a Tommy Pham or Taylor Ward doesn't really address the batting need, and pitchers like Tyler Anderson, Merrill Kelly, Aroldis Chapman, and Jake Bird are going to cost a fortune. We just don't have the young player fortune to trade. I see a very quiet deadline for the Twins unless we get a middle inning reliever. If we get that #3 or 4 bat for the second half it's going to be Royce Lewis and/or Luke Keaschall. If it happens, that #3 or 4 starter is going to be David Festa or Zebby Matthews, and the backend bullpen piece is going to be Louie Varland. And you know what, that's the right answer for where this team is right now. We are a solid to good team but need our young guys to take a big step forward to be a contending team. They can't step forward if they don't play. Let's quit looking elsewhere for the pieces we need and overpaying for slightly above average players. Let's play the guys we have and see if they are those pieces. This is the year to find that out, not the year to trade from alleged "surplus" in the hope we can go from 85 wins to 90.

Alcantra is a very interesting idea depending on the price. If I'm the Twins, the top 5 prospects are off the table, as is Soto. After that, I'm open for business. They can have one in the 6-12 range, one in the 13-20 range, plus a throw in of Julien, Prato, Eeles or (maybe) Miranda. I still have hope for Mirnada and I think they dumped Mike Ford to see if Miranda could show enough in AAA to be the 2026 1B on the big club. So a package like Lewis or Raya (but not both), Gonzales or Hill, plus one of the throw-ins. Seems like that could be a win-win.

Alcala threw 40 pitches last night and was taken out with 2 outs in the 8th inning of a blowout game. Given that usage and the way he was taken out you gotta think the Twins might say he has a sore shoulder and put him on IL. Hell, he probably does have a sore shoulder after last night. Probably a sore neck too from line drive whiplash. What do you do with SWR? I would say he's bullpen material for now, replacing Alcala, but then you have a "long man" who just pitched when Festa is starting and we may need a long man. I say Alcala to the IL, SWR down, and one spot is taken by Adams who can come back without waiting 15 days because of Alcala's IL placement. Maybe you elevate one more pitcher (Dobnak or McCaghan? Maybe Morris or Lawyerson?) until the Sunday start. Who's then up to start Sunday against Houston in Houston? I say Morris but it's all a true crapshoot now.

This sounds right except that I think Dobnak is probably #9. There was a lot of talk on the site about trading Paddack before the season so that Festa, SWR, and Matthews could get a "fair chance". Well, be careful what you wish for. They're getting that chance now. Matthews has been okay to good in limited outings, SWR bad and seemingly getting worse, and we'll see about Festa over the next couple of starts. This is why you keep pitching depth. MLB teams have used an average of 11.8 different starting pitchers per season 2015. Some teams have used as many as 16. Even assuming a couple of those guys are "openers", you have to go into every season assuming that you're going to use at least 8 – 10 different starting pitchers for at least a minimum of 5 starts apiece. We are about 40% of the way through the season and we've now used 7 starters. Frankly, that's about right. Life could be worse, we could be the Dodgers. They have already used 13 different starters. I also think the criticism about not having enough of a "pitching pipeline" is way overblown. We have three young pitchers who actually deserve an MLB shot. That is much better than most teams. There is nobody out there that's got 7 or 8 proven competent starters. Nobody, not even the Dodgers. If you are a competent starting pitcher, you are on a major league roster starting for some team. You're not out there as a street free agent or toiling away in AAA. Well, it should be interesting to watch and see how these three guys do, plus a possible chance of seeing Morris, Adams, or even Baker. Hopefully we will get at least one middle to back and starter and one middle to top and starter out of the first three guys. My bet would be Festa in the middle to back end and Matthews more towards the middle to top end with SWR as a long man/spot starter type, but we will see how that goes. The preseason predictions were correct; the Twins were in as good a position as anyone to endure injuries to starting pitching by having some promising young depth. Time to find out how promising these guys really are.

He sems like a decent bench player but it's very unlikely that his hot start presages a major rise to competent MLB starter at age 29. This is pretty simple. He's second on the list to go. First guy gone is Bride, then Clemens. How long they stay depends on when whether there is someone who needs to come up. Keaschall comes up when he's ready, maybe just before or right after the ASB. The real question is who else is there? Maybe Eeles? Maybe Miranda or Julien show enough, but I think that those 2 are in AAA for the season unless they really break out for at least a month or Clemens just falls off a cliff since Clemens has been better than either of them. Also all it takes is one IF injury for Clemens to have a pretty secure roster spot. I can see him hitting around .235-.250 with an OPS over .750 in a part time role. Given that he can field pretty well, that's a good guy to have. I suspect that Clemens is here for the duration unless Eeles or Prato forces his way up. I think we're looking at the non-pitching side of the 26 man roster absent injury until Keaschall is ready and then Bride goes. Eeles or Prato is the first man up if someone gets hurt in the IF, Keirsey in the OF unless and until Austin Martin is ready.

Agreed. BTW, I like that you give the day's stats for the top 20 prospects. Unfortunately, guys like Julien and Miranda that have lost their prospect status by playing in the MLB don't show and they are the ones most likely to be promoted if they play well. Is there a way to have a listing of those kind of players with these reports?

Thanks for letting me know. I was hoping for an IL spot for Alcala. I think this bullpen may burn out quickly if we don't have a long man that can go at least 2+ innings after Festa and SWR.

This is the year we are going to find out if Festa, Matthews, and SWR are ready to be MLB starting pitchers. A big part of a starting pitcher's job is to eat innings, at least 5 or 6 a game. SWR had an opportunity and failed in large part because he couldn't do that. He's now going to get another chance. Matthews did eat enough innings for two starts, but then wound up on the IL. That doesn't work either. Festa is the next man up. He is got to find a way to get through 5 innings in less than 80 pitches to give him a chance to go 6 or 7. Whichever one of these three can start eating innings is our number 4 starter and stays as number 5 when Pablo is back. I think the Twins see the issue and that's why Adams is in the big leagues. Assuming he stays now that Coloumbe has rejoined the club(I think Alcala may be gone), his job is going to be that of the traditional long man - go 2-3+ innings in relief of the starter who only goes 4 or 5. I think we need a guy like that with two rotation spots being held by these three young guys. They specifically used Adams at St. Paul to go in 3 to 4 inning bursts so we would have a prepared long man. Hope it works.

That was ugly. The ump did Festa no favors on the low strike, but this loss wasn't the Ump's fault. He looked rattled and the rest of the guys looked like a team finishing a 10 day cross country road trip barely able to get through the game. At least we didn't burn any relief pitching other than the 2 most likely to be in St. Paul next week. Well, the depth experiment is here with Matthews and Festa on the mound every 5th day. I kind of expect them to demote Funderburk for someone that can pitch multiple innings in relief while Coloumbe shakes off the rust in AAA. Maybe Adams, McCaughan, Misiewicz, or our old friend Randy Dobnak can play that role? It's hard to see how this bullpen holds up when 2 of the 5 starters are unlikely to go beyond 5+ innings a start. That pitcher or Alcala can then be sent back or DFA'd when Coloumbe is ready to go. I'm hopeful we can get through the Blue Jays series without a long man with Ober, Paddack and Ryan up but we'll need a long man next week for the Rangers series starting Tuesday. Those of us who wanted Matthews and Festa to get a nice long look are now getting our dream. Hope it isn't a nightmare.

Wow, Lee just does not look good at the plate. I thought it was just a problem right handed but he isn't hitting much with any authority left handed either. This is starting to look like last year where he started ok and just faded out to being unplayable.

Completely agree. Even if it made baseball sense to trade Duran on the idea that we'd be trading from "surplus", something with which I strongly disagree, the return would not be worth it. By the way, rumor is that our old friend Taylor Rogers will be available unless the Reds move into contention. He's a rental with his contract up at the end of the year and on a $6m number for this year. Would he be worth a prospect or two in the 10-20 range?

No offense Matthew, but this is just a terrible idea on several levels. First, there is no evidence that Varland can close. He is improving but still shaky at times. More importantly, we know that Jax CANNOT close because we've tried that and it's failed and failed repeatedly. We also know from experience that Stewart has about 30 innings a year in that arm before he gets hurt. It's great that we're getting them now but the odds of him being an effective reliever after the ASB are not good based on his history. Nothing kills a team faster than giving up leads late. Trading Duran is a recipe for that to happen. Second, weakening the pitching staff right when our #1 starter gets hurt is bordering on reckless. I'm hopeful that Festa will be effective but there is no chance that he will give us the number of innings that Lopez does so we are looking at more bullpen usage, not less. I think the Lopez injury makes it more likely that we trade FOR a reliever, not that we trade away a reliever. Third, the offensive situation is not as dire as some people seem to think it is. You can't look at season long stats given our previous injuries. Wallner, Buxton, Castro, and Correa are back to full force, Lewis has shown signs of waking up in the last 2 days, and Larnach has shown real improvement. Is this a top 5-7 offense? No, it is not unless Lewis becomes the first half of 2024 Lewis. But it should be a top half offense if we don't have a major injury. If we do, the trade is from pitching prospect depth, not the trade of a dominant closer. Decent offense backing a solid rotation with a dominant bullpen is a winning recipe as shown by the mid-teens Royals. This team could be that recipe. Finally, trading Duran would kill the clubhouse just when the team is feeling better about itself. Trading away one of your best players at a key position sends the "I don't care if we win" message. Moreover, there shouldn't be a financial issue. Money and contract issues may or may not even be an issue in the future because we are supposedly getting a new owner. The days of trading good players to get "value" before they are "too expensive" may be over or at least lessened. Unless we are trading Duran for Judge or Ohtani, this is a very, very bad, terrible idea IMHO. Rant over. Have a great day.

Well, this topic did not age well. With Pablo going on the shelf for at least 15 days, the chances of the Twins trading a recently effective starter just went from unlikely to non-existent. My bet is a very quiet trade deadline with at most a middle inning reliever added yet again.

I agree a middle of the order bat is an important upgrade, but I think you have the positions reversed and are calling for action a little too soon. I think the biggest place to upgrade is at 1B. France is pretty average and there do appear to be available upgrades in the rental market like Ryan O'Hern and Josh Naylor. Both of them should be available for prospects outside of our top 10 and both can help the middle of the order pretty dramatically. I think it is too early to say that upgrading 3B is the number one priority. We need to let the next 4 to 6 weeks play out and see if Lewis can rediscover his form. I agree that Lee is not the answer since I think he is a serviceable hitter at the MLB level at best, a .675-.725 OPS type with no speed to help him raise that number, and it is very unclear whether he will ever be anything more. His defense and defensive versatility makes him valuable but more as an average to below average hitting 2B with a good glove or a solid utility player to augment Castro this year and replace him next year rather than a starter at a bat first position like 3B. The other thing to keep in mind is that hopefully Luke Keashall will be back after the ASB. While we've only seen a small sample size, he was terrific. 85 – 90% of what we saw would be a huge upgrade at the front of the order and help the middle by moving Buxton or Larnach back a spot. He is going to need a place to play every day and I don't think we want an every day DH. He could and should be the every day 2B or 1B (I am assuming he can't play 3B after the TJ surgery). He may be the replacement for Ty France with a combination of Lee, Castro, and Clemens playing 2B. Bottom line, I think Lewis is playing for his 2025 job in the next 4-6 weeks. He is the preferred solution at 3B, with Lee perhaps an alternative if he can improve his hitting. I would like to see a post ASB lineup that has Keaschall at 1B, 2B or DH pretty much every day with Lewis at 3B hitting even at a .750 OPS rate starting today, O'Hern or Naylor at 1B if not Keaschall, and Castro, Lee, and Clemens on the bench each playing 3 days a week. That means Bride is elsewhere, and France probably traded for a prospect. Frankly, I'm fine with not picking up a new 1B if the cost is too high and France can hit at a consistent .725 OPS level.

I agree with this and would add one other possibility - We might want to see if this is real and if it is, try to sign Paddack for another 2-3 years. One of the underlying premises of the article is that when his contract runs out, he will be too expensive and will simply go to another team or, at best, we will give him a QO so we get a draft pick. That is probably a safe assumption with the current ownership. However, the team is for sale. It's a least possible that a new owner would spend more on payroll to try to keep the team together, particularly if we make the postseason and go on a good run. The team is also more valuable to a potential new owner if it's winning, drawing fans (the two go hand in hand), and actually has a chance in the postseason. Paddack could be an important part of that formula. Bottom line, I would not trade him unless the return was an established quality major league bat that could play 1B next year and had at least one or two more controllable years. Paddack alone won't generate that kind of return, so would have to be Paddack and a minor-league player outside of the top 10. Unless that return is available, and I seriously doubt that it is, I would hold onto him for this year and seriously consider trying to re-sign him for two or three more years. Maybe a three year, 45 – $50 million deal would be enough? I think that's the smarter play.

This is a very interesting wrinkle in the sales process. We were discussing that in another thread so thanks for raising it here as a single issue. It really effects the economics of owning a sports team, particularly a sports team like the Twins that loses money on a cash on cash basis now that the regional sports network revenue spigot has been turned off. Those two factors together probably drop the value of a team like the Twins by 15-20%. Without the TV revenue or tax deduction it really will be very difficult to make money on the Twins if you run any sort of competitive payroll. So either the TV situation needs to be resolved so teams like the Twins get $50m plus a year like they used to get, or the only the truly "I don't care if I make money I just want to win" type billionaire will have a lot of interest in the team. You don't get to be a billionaire without real business acumen (or inherited wealth), so those type of billionaires are few and far between. The other potential problem is this may increase the number of franchises that come up for sale in the near future. I have to believe that the owners of teams like Cleveland, Miami, Tampa, and probably others find that a tax deduction that can be used to shield other income is a strong inducement to maintain ownership. If that goes away, why not sell? Bottom line, the Pohlads may need to move this along even if it means taking a couple hundred million dollars less than they would have gotten last year. Don't be like people who list their house in a down market and refused to sell because it was worth more three years ago and they can't believe they're not going to get that price. All of the warning lights are now blinking so if you want out, get out now.

Not surprisingly, the keys are the health of the pitching staff and a return to or continuation of form for Correa, Buxton, Wallner, and Lewis. The Bullpen has been great but I worry about depth when (not if) Stewart and Alcala need IL time. If Funderburk is the best we have backing up the current group we could have a real problem if 2 BP guys go down at the same time. Also, an injury to Lopez or Ryan would really hurt the starting staff. We have depth but no one to replace either of those guys. The lineup has been pretty bad but if Buxton and Wallner continue to hit when they come back and Lewis rediscovers his stroke, we would have a top half lineup that could be even better. Think about a lineup against RH starters of - Larnach, Buxton, Correa, Wallner (breaking up the LHs), Jeffers, Lewis, Clemens, France, Lee/Bader, with Lee/Bader, Castro, Vasquez, and Bride on the bench. Then add in Keaschall in the 1 or 2 hole and shift everyone back one and that lineup could score some runs. Against a LH starter drop Larnach for Bader and Clemens for Lee and its still pretty strong. Look, there will always be one or more guys out but now there's some MLB level depth since depth guys like Castro, Bader, Clemens, and Lee don't have to play every day. I'm cautiously optimistic. This team could win 95 games. It's going to take at least that to beat Detroit but both the division and a wild card are within realistic reach.

While I understand it could be a close call, I think keeping Bride over Keirsey is the right decision assuming that Bader is relatively healthy. Bride is a much better hitter than Keirsey and as a veteran is more likely be successful in a limited role. Keirsey's role as a defensive outfielder is important if either Buxton or Bader is unavailable, but somewhat redundant if they are both active and available since both are better defenders than Keirsey. This team needs hitters more than a 3rd defensive OF. I think the better move is to simply option Keirsey back to AAA to be available as the first call up if either Buxton or Bader gets hurt as compared to probably losing Bride on a DFA. Bride's real decision moment probably comes when Keaschall is ready to come back slightly before or right after the All-Star break. Then the question will be whether he, Clemens (or frankly Lee or Lewis) stays the big club to make room for Keaschall. Right now Bride goes but who knows what a month and possible injuries can bring?

Thanks for sending this. I had not seen that article. Everything in the article makes sense, particularly the idea that the Twins are running at a cash flow negative given the substantial loss of TV revenues. It does make for a much tougher sale when you asking a buyer to pay substantially for a business running at a $25 million annual cash on cash loss. It takes a significant future increase in franchise value for that to make sense. And that's before you consider that there is $400 million debt secured by the business (I think I am remembering the number correctly but I might be wrong). Now I would assume the debt would be paid by current ownership out of the proceeds of sale. If current ownership is expecting the buyer to assume responsibility for that debt, this becomes even tougher. Finally, you have to add in the effect of the provision in the current budget bill which cuts the deduction for team expenses in half so you can't team to shield other income as easily. The Pohlads may have waited about two years to more to put the team on the market. We may be waiting a long time for this team to get sold.

Well said, nick. This is a fun team to watch. We should all enjoy that while we can since that isn't always true for any team. The idea that we should boycott the team to "send a message" to the Pohlads may be well intentioned, but is unlikely to be meaningful and will more likely hurt than help if the goal is to get the team sold or convince current ownership to invest at the deadline. BTW, I agree with the former poster who said that publicity about potential ownership groups "walking away" is likely negotiating tactics. From a distance with no inside information, it looks like the sticking point is the Pohlads need/desire to get $1.7B plus for a franchise worth more like $1.4-$1.5B. In that context published reports that potential ownership groups are walking away are a good way to exert pressure for current ownership to lower the price for a sale. The current budget bill that changes the tax rules for pro franchise ownership by cutting the expense deduction in half will also act as a drag on price to the extent it stays in the final bill. But as they say in real estate, it only takes one willing to pay the price to make the sale.

No offense, but did you guys watch the game? Lewis made the classic "see the line drive start going toward third so I can score on a single" baserunning error and was toast coming back. Diving would not have helped; it would have slowed him down. He dives, he's out. He was likely out once he made that first move toward 3B. He made the smart and correct baseball play to go back high and create a tougher throw in the hope KC didn't execute the play. That was his only shot at not getting doubled off. Let's not forget that Lewis has played in roughly 165 games, the basic equivalent of 1 (!) season in the Bigs. He is going to make rookie mistakes. The mistake he made yesterday is common and made by guys who have played 10 years in the Bigs. C'mon now, all of us who have played even beer league softball have done the exact same thing as have all serious players. We can and should wonder why he isn't hitting worth a damn, but i don't think its fair to criticize him for somehow not trying hard enough.

McCusker is starting today in RF. He isn't getting much of a chance, but I have to think that the Twins ahve already decided that he and Keirsey go back to AAA when Buxton and Wallner come back next week. Keirsey can't hit water if he fell out of a boat but he at least offers above average defense and base running for late inning use. Those two then fight it out for first man back when an OF goes on IL. I think Clemens has won a job for the rest of the season unless he falls off a cliff. I see him as part of the Correa/ Lewis/ Lee/Clemens group for the 2B/SS/3B spots playing 2B against RH pitching and also getting some DH ABs. I think Bride may stay as well for awhile as the 26th man and really the only backup 1B. I would work Clemens at 1B as much as possible in practice so he can play there on occasion as well.

Codys with a C help you find the organic muesli at Whole Foods. K Kodys help you find the right lure at Bass Pro Shops.

Serviceable is the prefect word for France in my opinion, assuming what we've seen is what we'll get. "Average place holder" also puts it well. He's ok, and wouldn't be too bad if we could get him to the 7 or 8 hole in the order. The more important question is where is the actual above average guy to take his place in the second half of this year or next year. I like the idea of making Larnach and everyday 1B given that we have few if any 1B prospects in the minors and lots of OF prospects. The other guy that might be intriguing is Clemons, maybe in combination with Bride. I hear Clemons wasn't so good when he played there earlier this year but practice and repetition helps so maybe he can get better. I don't think France's averageish defense is a high bar to clear. The other guy that should be playing 1B regularly at AAA and in practice is Miranda. Playing Mike Ford or Severino at 1B in St. Paul makes little sense to me since neither looks like he can hit enough to be an everyday MLB 1B. Miranda has hit well in MLB before (and so has Julien although I am less sanguine about his chances going forward) and is behind Lewis, Lee, and maybe even Castro or Keaschall at 3B. Give Miranda a 1B glove, play him there every day for the next month to 6 weeks and see what you have. That can give us a little clarity on the position going forward and help inform whether we try to keep France, find another France/Santana/Gallo type for next year, or promote internally. To me, that's how you build - with information not just projection.