LA Vikes Fan

Well said, particularly on Stewart. Stewart is great for the 35 innings a year that you get; then his arm falls off and he's just not available. It's very possible he will not make the Dodgers 40 man roster because they are squeezed so who knows, he might be back in MN next year. I think Martin has already earned the LF job to start next season. I completely agree that we need to move Wallner to a 1B/DH role, but that's not going to happen unless he gets in a lot of practice doing it in the offseason. I also think Roden is going to get a long look next year. I suspect we will see Buxton, Martin, Roden, and unfortunately Outman as next year's OFs at the start with Wallner or Jenkins/Gonzalez depending on whether Wallner is still a full time OF. Why Outman? They are obsessed with having a regular CF backup for Buxton and Outman is as close as they have to that guy.

I agree with the original poster on Martin, but I think this underplays his success this year and his future. He is playing like an above average MLB staring OF in really his first extended look at the MLB level. That's pretty damn impressive. You never know whether early success or failure will translate long term. Still, if this is what he is he is a foundational player on a competitive team hitting in the first 1/3 of the order. That's what a guy who hits .280-.300/.360plus/.375-.400 who can run well and play a decent of better LF is. He really is the one success story so far for the last 2 months tryout camp the Twins have run and he and Keaschall are the development success stories of the 2025 season. I see next year's Opening Day lineup as having Buxton, Keaschall, and Martin in the first 3 spots in some order. I'd prefer Martin, Keaschall, Buxton but I hear Buck likes leading off and he's been successful so I guess we shouldn't mess with that success unless he's mentally ready for that. I hope what we're seeing this year is what Martin brings to the table because we need it and that level of play wpudl really help elevate the lineup.

Couldn't agree more. Roden has the AAA track record to get his shot. The rest? We've seen what they can do, and it isn't good enough to even be the 5th OF on a competitive MLB team. The only thing that holds me back at all is Outman's performance for the Dodgers in 2023. That gives you a little hope that there's something there if it could only be unlocked. He might get another shot but the chances of success seem very low. Given that we traded for him, I suspect Outman gets a reserve OF role next year but that's it for him - take advantage or he's on the AAAA OF circuit going from team to team.

The packages mentioned are well, …. Yuck. Now give us a middle of the order bat, yes. He won’t get that so no.

I agree, although I would say Ryan is a solid 2/strong 3 starter not a 4 or 5. I’d like to keep both but he’s the one to trade if you’re going to trade one from a baseball perspective. Given Ryan’s relatively low salary, the smart move is see how the first half goes and trade at the deadline if we’re out of it.

I agree. Jax for Bradley may turn out to be the one trade we won. 2 months of Bader for Mendez also looks like it could be a winner.

Wow, has that come down yet? It may be time to shut Zebby down for the rest of the year. Either that or give hard hats to fans in the outfield.

I'm with you. Gonzalez may be ready and he's Rh power.

Amen, brother. Wallner can hit for power and could be a real asset if he can hit .240/.350 so he needs to play, just not in RF. He's just not good there. Move him to 1B or DH. Trade Larnach for a reliever or a blocked 1B prospect or make him the 1B and trade Wallner. Bottom line, do not run either Wallner or Larnach in the OF every day. Who plays RF? Jenkins and/or Gabriel Gonzalez. Those are the 2 guys performing this year in the minors. Both have performed at every level. Roden performed in AAA as well. Get them up and play them in some combination, especially since Jenkins and Roden can spell Buck in CF so no need for guys we know can't play like Outman and Keirsey. Emma hasn't shown well enough in AAA yet so he has to start there. Next year's 5 OFs out of ST should be Buxton, Martin, Jenkins, Gonzalez, and Roden. I like Wallner at 1B but would be happy with Larnach there, but I don't want one of them also at DH. The DH should be one of the 5 OFs I listed so all 5 of those these guys get their 4-5 ABs at least 4-5 days a week.

Agree on all three. Bradley is in pen, not pencil, for the 2026 rotation in either the 4 or 5 spot, with SWR and Matthews fighting for the other. This assumes of course that Lopez, Ryan, and Ober are all on the team. If one or more is traded, all 3 make the rotation. Sands is in the 2026 bullpen, with only his role undefined. He can be a late inning option if he shows he can handle the role. I have one disagreement - Martin is a starter, not a bench piece, and he hits in the top 3, not the bottom 3. The guy has a .295 average with a .393 OBP this year, .266/.344 for his career. That guys bats 1st or 2nd, maybe 9th in a stacked lineup, something we don't have. His OF defense is getting better and he's very athletic so it should be at least average if not better. I think you saw the preferred lineup last night at the front end, Buxton, then Martin, then Keaschall. I'd love Buxton to hit 3 with Martin 1 and Keaschall 2 to take advantage of Buck's power and give him more RBI opportunities but you can't argue with his success in the leadoff spot. Martin is your opening day LF next year. He's earned it and, let's face it, there isn't anyone else. Emma hasn't performed that well, and I'm not sure they will start with either Jenkins or Gonzalez in the OF out of ST and if they do, it should be at the expense of Wallner who can learn 1B or DH. Here's what I'd like to see out of the gate or at least by May 15 - an OF of Buxton in CF, with Martin, Jenkins, Roden, and Gabriel Gonzalez manning the corners. In case no one noticed, Gonzalez is hitting .315/.362/.508(.870) in 135 AAA ABs, .329/.397/.515 (.912) for the year mostly between AA and AAA. Oh, and by the way, he's all of 21. Hmmm, maybe we did get something from the Polanco trade. Jenkins and Roden can both play CF when Buxton is off and one of the 4 not playing is the DH. Wallner or Larnach moves to 1B and one moves on, probably Larnach, in a trade for a decent relief pitcher or blocked quality 1B prospect. Add 4 of those 5 to the lineup with Wallner (1B), Keaschall (2B), Lee (SS), and Lewis (3B), with Jeffers catching and you can see the outlines of a good lineup. Will it be good out of the gate next year? Maybe, maybe not, but it will be by mid-2026 or 2027 and that's what we should be playing for. No mediocre stop gap vets, no Outman, no Keirsey. These guys are the future. Let's find out if they can play.

There’s ample reason to keep Clemens around for a 2026 bench spot. He’s earned it. However, a lot of us are concerned that the team is going to keep him as the starter at 1B for next season. We need someone better. Martin has earned a starting spot next year in LF IMHO. He’s far from perfect but he’s what we need, high OBP, speedy, athletic, can steal bases. Given time, I think he can improve to an above average. OF. Put him with Jenkins and Buxton, and we might actually have a high-end defensive outfield next year that can actually hit. Wallner can learn 1B or DH.

Amen, brother.

Two thoughts. First, I agree with this. I think it i more likely that Matthews would get optioned out of ST than SWR. Not because SWR is better or has a higher upside, Matthews does, but simply because Matthews has options. We will want to keep both and that's the way to do that. Bradley has much more upside than either of them and is more competent now than Matthews so he will be in pen, not in pencil, for next year's rotation. That may be the one trade from the deadline that we actually win. Second, why not one of those 3 in the bullpen. I know SWR isn't the classic hard thrower who survives in the bullpen but there have been a lot of guys who provide real value as the 6th starter/long man. That could be a good role for him. Alternatively, how about Matthews as a late inning or closer type? I think it's too soon to give up on him as a starter but I could see him in that role. The rest of them? Probably gone or in AAA on MiLB contracts. I could see Clemens or Outman as a bench guy but I hope we can do better. I'd frankly rather give those PAs to Fedko, Gonzalez, Emma, Jenkins, Eeles, or any number of other guys.

I think the reason people propose moving Keaschall to 1B is a little different - we don't have a 1B in the organization and we might have a 2B with either Eeles or Culpeper. Personally, I'd love to see Keaschall grab 2B by the throat and play there for 10 years. If Culpepper comes up, he can play SS and Lee can go to the bench.

Thanks for letting me know. That makes me hope even more than the 1B plan for next year is Larnach or Wallner.

Good analysis, and really what we should be focused on now. Let's separate the wheat from the chaff for 2026. Bradley is looking more and more like a 4/5 starter to me and, even better, one who can chew up 150 plus innings a year. With the news that Festa may have thoracic outlet syndrome, trading for Bradley starts to make sense. Clemens and Gaspar don't help us much at all. I guess I could see Clemens as the 26th man, but not really. Gaspar is the classic AAAA player. I agree with you on Lewis but we're stuck with him at 3B for at least another year to see if he can recapture his form. He doesn't have much trade value at this point and we really don't have a replacement unless and until Kaelon Culpeper is ready. Lee could play 3rd but he can't hit and we don't have another SS. IF Outman can't play an average or better CF there is no place for him. We really need a 1B. I'm surprised Fedko isn't getting a look but that may have to do with service time or getting him 1B reps in AAA to learn the position. I really would like to see them try to move Wallner or Larnach to 1B in the offseason and Spring Training or, even better, sign Naylor. I'd like to see a Larnach/Fedko 1B platoon with Fedko also a bench bat/5th OF, Wallner as an OF/DH, and Buxton, Martin, Jenkins and Outman or Emma as the other OFs. I think we have to look internally since any FA money will be used to try to buy half a bullpen.

Ouch.

That would really suck.

I tend to be a little more optimistic than many here about the 2026 Twins so I agree with you. Part of that is because I don't think it makes baseball sense or financial sense to trade Ryan or Lopez in the off-season even if you're trying to keep the payroll down. The smarter move is to hold them until the trade deadline because you will get more for them if they are healthy and performing, which I think is a good bet. Neither one of them have onerous contracts that are difficult to service or would be difficult to move. Those kind of contracts tend to be the veterans that get moved in the off-season. Also, if you just keep what you have and add 2-3 bullpen pieces at a total of $10 million or so for the season, you still have the payroll around $100-105 million. That payroll is very serviceable if the new investors money is used to eliminate debt and free up your cash flow. I'm perhaps more optimistic than many because I actually see the outlines of a decent lineup for next year between Buxton, Wallner, Martin and Jenkins in the OF, and Keaschall, Jeffers, Lewis, and maybe Lee in the IF. Yes, we desperately need a 1B and another bat to help at DH, a decent backup C, and we may need a shortstop depending on whether Lee can get marginally better both in the field and at the plate. Larnach may fill one of the 1B/DH needs, but I suspect he'll be traded. I think if we keep the guys we have we actually have a top 10-15 rotation. The bullpen is a dumpster fire right now but that is the easiest thing to rebuild on the fly with veterans who command under $5 million a year and/or current MiLB starters moved to the bullpen. I really think we're going to see two of Festa, SWR, Raya, and Matthews in the pen next year, my guess is in that order and probably from early in the season. If you squint hard enough, you can see the outlines of the team that could win 80 – 83 games if people just perform at a "normal" level, and one that can win 85 or more with marginal improvement from some of the young players (particularly Keaschall, Lee, Wallner, and Lewis). Having said all that, the first half of 2026 is critical. If this team is struggling and is 10 games under 500 in July, I think we are going to see a serious purge to have as little payroll on the books as possible going into the potential labor related stoppage of 2027. That's when I could see guys like Buxton, Ryan, Jeffers, and Lopez traded for more prospects and we might even see them include Lewis, Ober, and Larnach on the bus out of town. So while I'm optimistic that we could have a decent team in 2026, maybe even a pretty good one, that's going have to materialize early in season or what was started this trade line will be completed at the next one.

This is good to hear. Buxton is in a unique spot to speak out with with his no trade clause and commitment to staying. I really wonder if the front office will have the ability to make moves this offseason. The new investment should free up the cash flow to increase payroll. Let's see if they use it.

Thanks. That all makes sense to me. It's interesting that on the 2025 Twins, the WAR leaders are Buxton at 4.7 to date (draftee), Ryan at 3.4 (traded for as prospect), Jeffers at 1.9 (draftee), Lopez 1.6 (traded for after MLB debut), Keaschall at 1.6 (draftee)., Wallner at 1.3 (draftee), Matthews at 1.2 (draftee), and Lewis at 1.1 (draftee). That's it for guys over 1 that are still with the team. Bader had 2.0 before being traded, Jax 1.5, Duran 1.2, Paddack 1.2, Castro 1.1, and Correa 1.0 so we traded most of the guys who we didn't develop. Of the 9 guys we still have that have WAR to date over 1, 7 were draftees, 1 traded for as a prospect, and only 1 traded for after establishing himself in Bigs. No free agents and really one one if we count the guys who were here but got traded away - Correa. What's kind of sad is when you add 10% to their current totals for the 10% of the season left, correct for partial season for Lopez, Matthews, Lewis, and Keaschall, and then apply the WAR scale, we don't have a lot going for us. The Fangraphs scale is 6.0 plus is elite, MVP-caliber talent, 4-6 All-Star caliber player, 2-4 good to above average, 0-2 below average to average. The MLB scale is 2 WAR - average full-time starter, 4 WAR decent, semi-star level player, 6 WAR, a true star level player, 8 WAR - a superstar, MVP caliber player. I used the Fangraphs scale because I have the Fangraphs numbers and don't know if the MLB calculation is different. Here's what you get: Buxton - 5.25 - All-Star level player. Ryan - 3.8-3.9 - All-Star level player or close. Lopez - @3.5-4 because missed so much with injury - All-Star level player or close. Keaschall - 4 plus projected over a full season. Probably #2 on the team. All-Star level if this is real. Jeffers - 2.1 - Solid regular. Wallner - 1.5 - 1.8 projected due to injury - average or slightly below average MLB player. Matthews - 2 -2.5 plus projected over a full season. Average to slightly above. Lewis - 1.8-2 plus projected due to injury over a full season. Average MLB player. That's it. No one else projects to 2 WAR or more. Austin Martin with 0.4 WAR in 109 ABs projects to around 2ish over a full season. Larnach has 515 PAs and has 0.4 WAR in really a full season, and Brooks Lee has 0.1 in 468 PAs, 80% or more of a full season. Sands and Topa are both over 60 innings, pretty much a full season for a reliever, and have WAR of 0.9 and 0.8 respectively. SWR is at 0.5 in 94 innings, and Festa is 0.3 in 53 innings, both project around 1 WAR. I know WAR isn't the end all and be all but I think it paints a pretty accurate and not a pretty picture for this team. In the field, Buxton is a star and Keaschall is a star in waiting if this is real. Jeffers is a solid regular. Wallner and Lewis are average or slightly below players. Martin could be a solid regular to above average if this year continues. On the pitching staff, Ryan and Lopez are stars or are close, Matthews is a solid regular if this year is real. Ober at 0.7 is below average, SWR and Festa are a little better than Ober, and there is nothing in the bullpen other than Sands. We need a lot.

Agreed. Does anyone know the stats on talent acquisition overall? I think it might vary team to team but I would guess that most teams outside of the big markets acquire most of their roster through the draft or acquiring prospects before they reach the Majors. I live in LA and you would expect that they are one of the highest FA based teams. Their current roster is roughly 60% guys that previously played for other MLB teams, 11 of whom are free agents signings who were successful at other teams or 42% of the roster. The other 18% were traded for after they had their MLB debuts or signed as minor league free agents after being released, depending on how you count the 2 guys from Japan (I counted them as MLB free agent signings). The MLB free agent signees are their best players so the WAR is likely higher. By contrast, Detroit's WAR is 85% from draftees or prospect acquisitions. That shows the contrast and suggests to me that good mid or smaller market teams are the result of developing draftees and/or trading for and developing prospects. That fits with the idea that the best free agents go to the highest revenue and thus highest paying teams. I don't have the full data set though and it would be interesting.

None of us know what is going to happen, but this is a possibility. The debt service on $425m (?) in debt is pretty significant cash flow drain. If in fact the new "limited partners" investment eliminates the debt, that should free up more cash flow for operations. There is at least a chance that the new investors actually are in it to be part of a winning experience, not just private equity people looking to maximize profit. We may know more when the investors names are released assuming the investment actually happens. The worst may happen, but we shouldn't just assume it will. By the way, I saw in an earlier comment that the 2023 playoff games were not sellouts. Is that right? How can that be? If this team cannot draw well enough to sell out playoff games in a 39,500 seat stadium there is something seriously wrong. I'm not aware of serious economic problems in the area, but maybe I'm uniformed, and I totally understand not supporting this year's team. Still, not drawing 2 million fans over 81 home dates for a good team in 2023 or a good for half the season team in 2024 is a real red flag. I'm sure it will be even worse this year, as it should be. Not sure what the problem is but it really hampers this team from investing. It also makes the players wonder if going somewhere else where they will be better supported is a better call (see Duran's comments about how much fun the atmosphere in Philly is). Don't get me wrong, I'm not necessarily blaming the fans when I see how well the Vikes are supported. Still, something is really wrong when you can't draw an average of 25,000 people a game and can't sell out playoff games.

Well put. I think Ryan and others want to be in a place where they can win. They would just as soon stay in MN; it's what they know, where they're known, and where they and their families are comfortable. But they don't want to stay if the team isn't going to try to get better. I don't think guys like Ryan, Jeffers and Ober will sign extensions unless they think the team will be competitive at least for the playoffs. That's the rub. When will this team be better? Are Keaschall and Martin for real? Will Wallner or Larnach take that next step forward to be a quality middle of the order bat? Will the FO be given the resources to get a 1B or rebuild the bullpen this off season? Lots of questions. I don't think the good players ae going to re-sign in MN without some answers.

This is really the issue. SWR can be a competent #5 starter. His problem is that he's competing with guys that have more upside and a strong possibility of being better. He's a comforting security blanket; he's not great, but he's not bad, so he's good to have around if the other, higher upside guys like Bradley, Matthews, Festa, Prielipp, Rojas, and Abel, either don't make it or take a couple of more years to make it. I really think that we need to convert a couple of pitchers from the above group to the bullpen for 2026. I would seriously think about putting Festa in the pen. His shoulder/body may not be able to handle starting and I think he could be the next Duran as a closer. I would put SWR there too as a 6th starter/ long man. Start the 2026 season with a rotation of Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Matthews and Bradley. That leaves enough guys for a strong AAA rotation from Abel, Prielipp (another whose physical issues may make him a late inning reliever), Morris, Rojas, John Klein, MacLeod, Raya, and CJ Culpepper. SWR is the next man up in case of a starter's injury or ineffectiveness. Add those 2 plus 1 or 2 Coulombe, Taylor Rogers, Phil Maton types to the 2 or 3 guys we have that should stay and it helps us fill out a decent bullpen, something we sure as hell don't have now.