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Twins Pre-Trade Deadline Needs - Potential In-House Solutions

LA Vikes Fan

Entry posted by LA Vikes Fan in Twins Pre-Trade Deadline Needs - Potential In-House Solutions ·

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We are closing in on Trade deadline season, that time when we all can fantasize about trading mid-level prospects for other team's stars. Before we get there though, we need to decide what this team actually needs and evaluate whether there are in-house options that can fill the bill. Trading at the deadline is always high-risk and very expensive in terms of prospects. It always cost more than you think to get another teams solid, mid-level veteran and they're often on expiring contracts making them mere short term rentals.

What Do We Need?

I think our needs are pretty straightforward. We have a pretty good rotation that lacks backend depth, about 75% of a good bullpen, and about 80% of a strong lineup that could really use another middle of the order bat or leadoff hitter. An addition in each of those areas be great. It would be helpful if the starter was left-handed, the reliever a viable seventh or eighth inning option, and if the hitter could play 2B or corner OF. I say the latter on the assumption that if we could bring up a hitter that can play well at second base, Willi Castro could be an everyday corner OF. He is actually pretty good out there in the field.

Who Should We Try In-House?

I actually think we may have solutions to all three spots presently on our AAA club. Looking at them from most likely to fill in house to least likely, at least in my view:

Let's start with the hitter. Brooks Lee has been tearing up AAA since he came off the injured list - .367/.421/.561 (.982), with 4 HRs, 7 Doubles, and 9 walks against only 14 strikeouts in 107  PAs, 98 ABs. Published reports say that he had basically made the team out of Spring Training before his back seized up so he must've held his own against major league pitching, at least this spring. He could come up and be an everyday 2B and our primary backup SS, with Castro moving to basically an everyday job in LF. We could create space for him by either putting Kepler on the IL to give Lee a try, shutting down Larnach through the ASB so he can actually recover from the turf toe problem, or parting ways with Farmer through a trade or DFA. Also, another injury opens the spot. This run of good health won't last forever.

I don't think that Matt Wallner is likely to be the answer, at least not now. He is absolutely hitting better at AAA than he was but he has 86 strikeouts in 250 AAA at bats, an almost 33% strikeout rate at the AAA level. Over the last two seasons he has struck out 97 times in 269 plate appearances at the MLB level, an over 36% rate. I think you have to wait until the strikeout rate goes down in AAA to at least around 25% before you can give Wallner another shot, especially when you remember how bad he was in the playoffs, how bad he was in Spring Training, and how horrendous his line was at the MLB level to start the season (.080/.273/.240 (.513)) before he was sent down. I believe in Wallner as a future solid MLB player but I do not think he is a short-term solution and probably not a solution for this season IMHO.

Bullpen help? I think the answer is actually pretty obvious - Louie Varland. I understand why they keep him stretched out at the AAA level as rotation depth. I do think there's a way to do that at the MLB level by having him pitch some long relief like he did last week against Oakland. If the need arises for him to become a starter, you can start with having him as the "bulk" pitcher on the bullpen day and slowly build him back up. At this point, the best we can hope for from him as a starter at the MLB level is a series of 5 or 6 inning starts and his track record this year suggests an ERA over 5. I don't think he's the answer for the rotation help. I know he's trying to learn a changeup so he can be an MLB starter. He can do that in the off-season and next year's spring training so he can help the Twins now. I would call him up now and put him in the bullpen while telling him that they'll stretch him out and give them another chance as a starter next year. Again, putting him on the roster shouldn't be too hard considering how bad Thielbar is pitching which suggests an injury that should result in an IL stint through the ASB. He could also come up and take Cole Sands place. Once again, any sort of injury would provide the opening.

How about the rotation? That may be a toughest one of all. I don't think Louie Varland is the answer. Festa might be and Boushley could be the kind of guy who has that one great career year and we catch lightning in a bottle. If either one can come up and give us some innings with an ERA even the 4.5 – 5 range, that would be perfectly okay for a number 5 starter. I just read that even Paddack thinks he needs a break as he comes back from a second TJ surgery. Now is the time. Put Paddack on the 15 day IL through the ASB and call up Festa (my choice) or Boushley. Give him three starts before the ASB and see what you have. Only way to know if we need to trade for a starter. 

What To Do and When

I think we need to try our in-house options before this FO gets fleeced again at the trade deadline for a mediocre veteran or a pitcher with arm trouble. To me, the moves are pretty clear and the time to make those moves is NOW, not two weeks from now, NOW. Let's give ourselves a chance to really evaluate these guys so a month from now we know whether there's any chance that any of our in-house options can work, whether we need to be out in the trade market,  or whether we should just decide that this isn't our year to do much more than sneak into the playoffs and get bounced early.

In sum, here are the moves to make:

Brooks Lee up, either Kepler or Larnach to the IL (or, if possible, a trade of Farmer)

Louie Varland up for the bullpen, Thielbar to the 15 day IL

David Festa up, Paddack to the 15 day IL

I would make the move with  Lee today on an off day so he is available in Arizona. I would bring up Festa for Thursday's start place of Paddack, and would Il Thielbar later this week to bring up Varland since Louie just pitched and got blown out yesterday. Varland's probably not available till at least Wednesday or Thursday. The latest I would make these moves is next Monday when we return from this road trip but I think that is too close to the ASB to be helpful.

What you guys think of these moves? Are there others that should be made in addition or instead of these? Inquiring minds want to know your thoughts . . .

9 Comments

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Trov

Trov 4,781

Posted

I see two issues you have not addressed.  First, both Festa and Lee are not on 40 man roster, so you need to decided who will go 60 man or DFA for those 2.  Keep in mind if they walk or get taken off waivers after DFA you cannot call them up should you need.  Second, you cannot put a guy on IL unless they are injured, the MLBPA would have a fit if you put a guy on IL simply because you felt like it. Although both Kepler and Larnach have been battling injuries have not heard about Paddock or Theilabar being injured, they may be and I just missed it. 

Really, the 40 man you need to decide how to fix that. 

LA Vikes Fan

LA Vikes Fan 8,096

Posted

First, I only count 39 players on the Twins 40 man not on the 60 day IL (who I understand don't count against the 40 man) - 20 pitchers, 3 catchers, 8 IFs, 8 OFs. That leaves 1 spot open to us any time.

If I'm wrong, two ideas on the 40 man. Brock Stewart was put on the 15 day IL on May 3. He could be transferred to the 60 day IL. He is still at least a couple of weeks away and will need a AAA rehab before coming to the Twins. Same for Headrick who has been on the MiLB injured list since March. Either gets you one more spot, both get you two. 

If Headrick doesn't give you that second spot, there are three options. One is to put Kirilloff on the 60- day IL. I don't know enough about his condition to know if he needs that and he went on the 15 day Il on June 13. That would leave him out until August 12. The second is to give the starts for Paddack to Varland. Have him make the starts and then stay up in the bullpen.  Not great for Festa's chance. The third is a trade or DFA candidate. The most obvious are Kyle Farmer, Cole Sands, and Caleb Thielbar. 

So, I think we already have one spot and it should be pretty easy to get at least one more or even two, albeit for a shorter time, probably through 8/1 for both Headrick and Stewart. My plan only requires a spot for Lee and a  spot for Festa, in that order because Varland can take the starts I would rather have go to Festa. IF that isn't enough, time to bite the bullet on Farmer and, much as I hate to say it, Thielbar. 

 

Twins_Fan_in_NJ

Twins_Fan_in_NJ 5,396

Posted

Varland to the bullpen seems like the most likely and sensible move they could make. I think that's where his future is.

 

terrydactyls

terrydactyls 5,722

Posted

Don't forget Kiersey, Jr.  He can cover LF, take over CF when Buxton needs a rest (or gets injured), and Castro can return to being the super utility guy.

JD-TWINS

JD-TWINS 6,142

Posted

I think Paddack starts this week…. and regardless of that success I then hope for a start from Festa on the 3rd (Detroit) & then a start from Varland on the 8th (White Sox), all while Paddack is on the 15 day IL for some arm issue. He’d get 15 days off and then another 4-5 after the break before he’d start again, at a minimum.

Varland stays stretched out through August as SWR & Paddack are both pretty high risk at this point. After August 1, Festa and company are the back-up starters from AAA corp. …….,I eluded to a Jordan Montgomery trade in another post - that would be like hearing the Calvary coming!!!

Varland & Stewart for last 6-7 weeks in the Pen would be nice……..Paddack in October as well.

Lee is the call-up guy at some point in July. Who gets moved is the Q? I still think Martin would get optioned and Castro would go out on the grass……at least until after the deadline.

LambchoP

LambchoP 2,533

Posted

I like the idea of Festa getting the call and taking Paddacks spot in the rotation. Lee should also be called up while he's hitting so well. He can be our everyday 2nd baseman and spell Correa at short every now and then. I doubt we can get anything for them, but with this recent "hot streak" I think the Twins should get whatever they can for Farmer and Margot, even if just to open spots for Lee and Wallner/Keirsey Jr. Theilbar needs to go to. We need both a starting pitcher, and a leverage lefty reliever at the deadline.

Fatbat

Fatbat 3,173

Posted

Lee should be on the 40 man yesterday and sent to join the twins on their road trip. That fixes most of our issues immediately if he is the real deal. Feata is next up on the 40 man as soon as they find the easiest way to get him there. 

mike8791

mike8791 751

Posted

Agree with your outline, but think the priorities need to be rearranged.  Assuming Twins mgt. believes they have a solid chance for a playoff spot, the #1 need is a top 3 starter.  Last year, with Gray and Lopez, we were competitive.  This year, while Lopez has the potential to be our shutdown starter, he has been very erratic - to say the least.  Ryan has emerged as a solid 2 but can he be relied on in the pressure-cooker playoff atmosphere?  Last year, he wasn't so regarded.  None of the remaining starters seem to offer a solid opportunity for a W, at least against the other top 3-4 teams in the AL.

The answer is a better pitcher than Ober, et. al.  While the supply is murky right now, in a month there should be some shakeout in the playoff teams, with some dropping out, e.g. the Jays, the D-backs, Cubs.  The Twins seemingly have an excess of near-ready players/top prospects  - one of Kirillof/Wallner/Larnach/Rosario/ Severino, one of Julien/Martin, and one of Raya/Gonzales/Mathews/Culpepper - to reel in a pretty good pitcher, one who can be controlled for one or two years.  It will be tough, especially with injuries to Luzardo, Gallen, Sandoval, Garrett, and Freeland, to find the right add, but find him they must.

It's just erroneous to hold on to good prospects when the team is playoff caliber.  If the Twins nibble around the edges again on Aug. 1st, you know ownership is content with dominating the bad clubs but not competing with the cream of the crop.  It looks like Cleveland is for real, leaving the Twins fighting for the Wild Card.  With Boston and Houston surging, this path is by no means a slam dunk.  The trading deadline is the only way to make a significant upgrade, not shuffling around prospects.

Fatbat

Fatbat 3,173

Posted

9 minutes ago, mike8791 said:

Agree with your outline, but think the priorities need to be rearranged.  Assuming Twins mgt. believes they have a solid chance for a playoff spot, the #1 need is a top 3 starter.  Last year, with Gray and Lopez, we were competitive.  This year, while Lopez has the potential to be our shutdown starter, he has been very erratic - to say the least.  Ryan has emerged as a solid 2 but can he be relied on in the pressure-cooker playoff atmosphere?  Last year, he wasn't so regarded.  None of the remaining starters seem to offer a solid opportunity for a W, at least against the other top 3-4 teams in the AL.

The answer is a better pitcher than Ober, et. al.  While the supply is murky right now, in a month there should be some shakeout in the playoff teams, with some dropping out, e.g. the Jays, the D-backs, Cubs.  The Twins seemingly have an excess of near-ready players/top prospects  - one of Kirillof/Wallner/Larnach/Rosario/ Severino, one of Julien/Martin, and one of Raya/Gonzales/Mathews/Culpepper - to reel in a pretty good pitcher, one who can be controlled for one or two years.  It will be tough, especially with injuries to Luzardo, Gallen, Sandoval, Garrett, and Freeland, to find the right add, but find him they must.

It's just erroneous to hold on to good prospects when the team is playoff caliber.  If the Twins nibble around the edges again on Aug. 1st, you know ownership is content with dominating the bad clubs but not competing with the cream of the crop.  It looks like Cleveland is for real, leaving the Twins fighting for the Wild Card.  With Boston and Houston surging, this path is by no means a slam dunk.  The trading deadline is the only way to make a significant upgrade, not shuffling around prospects.

By the time we play Cleveland, we will be a completely different team compared to when we couldn’t beat them earlier this season.  We probably will be closer to winning a majority of head to head than getting swept by them.  We need 1 the offense to step up and we need a rookie to make an impact just from a sports psychology standpoint. Red hot rookies make vets scared for their jobs. Its really just as simple as trying out Lee and Festa and if they both take that step,  we can cruise to a central division championship by 5 games over Cleveland. 

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