LA Vikes Fan

I don't think you can say that Wallner is doing better in AAA than Brooks Lee this year unless you limit Wallner's performance to the last three or four weeks and ignore how futile he was before that time. Their year up-to-date stats are: Lee stats - 367/.421/.561 (.982), 14 SOs, 9 BBs, 4 HR's, 20 RBI in 107 plate appearances, 98 ABs. 13.08% SO rate, 8.4% BB rate. Wallner stats - .242/.325/.538 (.863), 86 SOs, 27 BBs, 18 HRs, 49 RBI, in 250 plate appearances, 223 ABs. 34.4% SO rate, 10.8% BB rate. Lee is having a tremendous season at AAA so far, better than Wallner, without any real weaknesses. Wallner has been hitting better lately, which may be the point you're trying to make, but still has an elevated strikeout rate. Combine that with his 51.5% strikeout rate at the MLB level in 2024 and his 31.5% MLB strikeout rate in 2023, and you have a classic boom or bust guy that is hard to play on a regular basis. The guy who strikes out 34% of the time in AAA is likely to approach a 40% strikeout rate in MLB and that just isn't a guy you can play very often. By the way, the statistics don't even count the fact that Lee is a superior fielder. He is a starting AAA SS who you can project to being an above average MLB infielder based on his profile. Wallner is an average at best outfielder with the proviso that he has a very strong arm. Wallner's best argument for coming up instead of Lee when and if we get to a recall point is that he is on the 40 man roster and Lee is not. It doesn't matter that Wallner is an outfielder since Castro can move to the outfield if we bring Lee up as an infielder. The 40 man roster spot is solvable since it appears there is only 39 on the 40 man roster anyway and, if there really is 40, it is easy to move Brock Stewart to the 60 day IL since he's already been out almost 60 days. Besides, Stewart isat least three or four weeks from returning as he is not yet ready to pitch in games and will need a AAA rehab assignment.

MLB Trade Rumors is reporting that Chris Paddack has been placed on the 15 day Injured List. The corresponding transaction is a call up of Ronny Henriquez. With the Monday off day, Ober can start on Thursday in Arizona on regular rest. Boushley and Dobnak would also be on regular rest to start Thursday, while Varland and Festa both pitched "within the last few days" and would not be available to start Thursday. That obviously doesn't mean they couldn't start Ober on Thursday and bring someone up to start Friday or Saturday if they wanted to stretch the rotation a day. My guess is he Henriquez is up because he can be easily sent back down on Thursday or after the Arizona series, and that they will call up a starter for one of the games in Seattle The corresponding move for a starter call up would be either sending Henriquez back to AAA or perhaps putting Thielbar on the IL.

Hard No. Both too old, both too expensive for what they now bring to the table. AND both are likely to cost at least and perhaps two of our top 10 prospects. It's going to be hard to find a starter in trade with Luzardo now out and the prospect cost is going to be very high. Lots of contending teams need/want starting pitching. I would look at Tyler Anderson but I read out here that the Angels are hoping to get a Top 100 prospect or borderline Top 100 plus a good secondary prospect for him because he's pitching well, his salary is affordable ($13m per year), and he is signed through 2025. Their emphasis is on pitching rather than position players. For the Twins, that would be some combination like Festa, Raya, or Soto plus a Luke Keaschall or Tanner Schobel type. A very high price indeed. I doubt if we will be trading for a starter. I really doubt if we will be trading for a rental starter.

First, I only count 39 players on the Twins 40 man not on the 60 day IL (who I understand don't count against the 40 man) - 20 pitchers, 3 catchers, 8 IFs, 8 OFs. That leaves 1 spot open to us any time. If I'm wrong, two ideas on the 40 man. Brock Stewart was put on the 15 day IL on May 3. He could be transferred to the 60 day IL. He is still at least a couple of weeks away and will need a AAA rehab before coming to the Twins. Same for Headrick who has been on the MiLB injured list since March. Either gets you one more spot, both get you two. If Headrick doesn't give you that second spot, there are three options. One is to put Kirilloff on the 60- day IL. I don't know enough about his condition to know if he needs that and he went on the 15 day Il on June 13. That would leave him out until August 12. The second is to give the starts for Paddack to Varland. Have him make the starts and then stay up in the bullpen. Not great for Festa's chance. The third is a trade or DFA candidate. The most obvious are Kyle Farmer, Cole Sands, and Caleb Thielbar. So, I think we already have one spot and it should be pretty easy to get at least one more or even two, albeit for a shorter time, probably through 8/1 for both Headrick and Stewart. My plan only requires a spot for Lee and a spot for Festa, in that order because Varland can take the starts I would rather have go to Festa. IF that isn't enough, time to bite the bullet on Farmer and, much as I hate to say it, Thielbar.

That's probably true, but that's not who he replaces in the lineup. Remember, Castro is as good or better in LF than he is at 2B. Lee comes up and plays 2B. Castro moves to LF 3-4 days a week, a day or 2 a week in CF, and plays 2B when Lee either sits or plays SS so Correa gets a day off. So who loses time? The current platoon/reserve OFs - Larnach, Margot, and Martin. Can Lee play better than those 3? Let's play him and find out. BTW, all of this is a good thought exercise but what is most likely to get Lee his chance is an injury to someone other than a Catcher. With Castro's flexibility, he can be moved as is necessary to get the AAA player with he best chance of success up to the Show. That's Brooks Lee.

I read that in either the Athletic or on MLB at bat when they were talking about how well he's been hitting. I'm at the office now and need to actually do some work but I will look for the link later today.

We are closing in on Trade deadline season, that time when we all can fantasize about trading mid-level prospects for other team's stars. Before we get there though, we need to decide what this team actually needs and evaluate whether there are in-house options that can fill the bill. Trading at the deadline is always high-risk and very expensive in terms of prospects. It always cost more than you think to get another teams solid, mid-level veteran and they're often on expiring contracts making them mere short term rentals. What Do We Need? I think our needs are pretty straightforward. We have a pretty good rotation that lacks backend depth, about 75% of a good bullpen, and about 80% of a strong lineup that could really use another middle of the order bat or leadoff hitter. An addition in each of those areas be great. It would be helpful if the starter was left-handed, the reliever a viable seventh or eighth inning option, and if the hitter could play 2B or corner OF. I say the latter on the assumption that if we could bring up a hitter that can play well at second base, Willi Castro could be an everyday corner OF. He is actually pretty good out there in the field. Who Should We Try In-House? I actually think we may have solutions to all three spots presently on our AAA club. Looking at them from most likely to fill in house to least likely, at least in my view: Let's start with the hitter. Brooks Lee has been tearing up AAA since he came off the injured list - .367/.421/.561 (.982), with 4 HRs, 7 Doubles, and 9 walks against only 14 strikeouts in 107 PAs, 98 ABs. Published reports say that he had basically made the team out of Spring Training before his back seized up so he must've held his own against major league pitching, at least this spring. He could come up and be an everyday 2B and our primary backup SS, with Castro moving to basically an everyday job in LF. We could create space for him by either putting Kepler on the IL to give Lee a try, shutting down Larnach through the ASB so he can actually recover from the turf toe problem, or parting ways with Farmer through a trade or DFA. Also, another injury opens the spot. This run of good health won't last forever. I don't think that Matt Wallner is likely to be the answer, at least not now. He is absolutely hitting better at AAA than he was but he has 86 strikeouts in 250 AAA at bats, an almost 33% strikeout rate at the AAA level. Over the last two seasons he has struck out 97 times in 269 plate appearances at the MLB level, an over 36% rate. I think you have to wait until the strikeout rate goes down in AAA to at least around 25% before you can give Wallner another shot, especially when you remember how bad he was in the playoffs, how bad he was in Spring Training, and how horrendous his line was at the MLB level to start the season (.080/.273/.240 (.513)) before he was sent down. I believe in Wallner as a future solid MLB player but I do not think he is a short-term solution and probably not a solution for this season IMHO. Bullpen help? I think the answer is actually pretty obvious - Louie Varland. I understand why they keep him stretched out at the AAA level as rotation depth. I do think there's a way to do that at the MLB level by having him pitch some long relief like he did last week against Oakland. If the need arises for him to become a starter, you can start with having him as the "bulk" pitcher on the bullpen day and slowly build him back up. At this point, the best we can hope for from him as a starter at the MLB level is a series of 5 or 6 inning starts and his track record this year suggests an ERA over 5. I don't think he's the answer for the rotation help. I know he's trying to learn a changeup so he can be an MLB starter. He can do that in the off-season and next year's spring training so he can help the Twins now. I would call him up now and put him in the bullpen while telling him that they'll stretch him out and give them another chance as a starter next year. Again, putting him on the roster shouldn't be too hard considering how bad Thielbar is pitching which suggests an injury that should result in an IL stint through the ASB. He could also come up and take Cole Sands place. Once again, any sort of injury would provide the opening. How about the rotation? That may be a toughest one of all. I don't think Louie Varland is the answer. Festa might be and Boushley could be the kind of guy who has that one great career year and we catch lightning in a bottle. If either one can come up and give us some innings with an ERA even the 4.5 – 5 range, that would be perfectly okay for a number 5 starter. I just read that even Paddack thinks he needs a break as he comes back from a second TJ surgery. Now is the time. Put Paddack on the 15 day IL through the ASB and call up Festa (my choice) or Boushley. Give him three starts before the ASB and see what you have. Only way to know if we need to trade for a starter. What To Do and When I think we need to try our in-house options before this FO gets fleeced again at the trade deadline for a mediocre veteran or a pitcher with arm trouble. To me, the moves are pretty clear and the time to make those moves is NOW, not two weeks from now, NOW. Let's give ourselves a chance to really evaluate these guys so a month from now we know whether there's any chance that any of our in-house options can work, whether we need to be out in the trade market, or whether we should just decide that this isn't our year to do much more than sneak into the playoffs and get bounced early. In sum, here are the moves to make: Brooks Lee up, either Kepler or Larnach to the IL (or, if possible, a trade of Farmer) Louie Varland up for the bullpen, Thielbar to the 15 day IL David Festa up, Paddack to the 15 day IL I would make the move with Lee today on an off day so he is available in Arizona. I would bring up Festa for Thursday's start place of Paddack, and would Il Thielbar later this week to bring up Varland since Louie just pitched and got blown out yesterday. Varland's probably not available till at least Wednesday or Thursday. The latest I would make these moves is next Monday when we return from this road trip but I think that is too close to the ASB to be helpful. What you guys think of these moves? Are there others that should be made in addition or instead of these? Inquiring minds want to know your thoughts . . .

Agreed on Stevenson, but I think Lee is much different. Reports had Lee making the 26 man roster before his back seized up so there is at least some thought that he can handle big league pitching. I think now or at least soon would be a good time to find out. I was wondering if Kepler had to go on the IL. The Twins can back date an IL stint 3 days so we could put him on the IL back to Saturday and have him back on 7/2 when we get home to play Detroit. I think the IL makes sense if he can't go in this week in AZ. The big issue is we need another bat and a LH would help. Lee is a switch hitter, a little better from the left side so far. He could slot in at 2B with Castro going back to LF - where he's actually pretty good in the field - and a super utility role where he plays 5 days a week. I wouldn't want to bring Lee up unless he was slotted in to play at least 4 days a week. Now would be a good time to find out if he can handle big league pitching while we have time before the trade deadline. The Twins need 3 things to really compete this year - another SP, a back end reliever, and another bat. We need to find out now if we have in-house solutions. Can Lee be that bat? Let's find out.

You can't stay with a guy who is as bad as Thielbar has been, regardless of his past contributions. I would IL him if there is a plausible way to do that. Give him 2-3 weeks of rest AND a rehab stint in AAA to see if he can come back. If not, give him a bobblehead night and a tearful yet joyous send off.

Interesting. I think we could IL Kepler back up to 3 days if he doesn't play. They may be waiting to see how he responds to treatment. My guess is he'll be put on the IL over the weekend retroactive to today. Hopefully Lee up, but it may be Wallner. It might be interesting to se if either player sits for tonight's Saints game.

No one is saying that Waller is no good, at least I'm not. But you can't cherry pick the stats either. Waller has struck out 79 times in 240 AAA plate appearances, almost exactly a 33% strikeout rate in AAA. The strikeout rate was over 50% in MLB before he was sent down. Waller was bad in the playoffs last year, bad in Spring Training, and bad in April. He was bad when he first got to AAA for about three weeks. He is definitely been hitting better over the last three weeks after having that very slow start in AAA. Still, the strikeout rate has to improve the before he can return to the MLB level absent a need to bring them up as an injury replacement. I think Wallner has a chance to be back with the Twins after the All Star break if he continues to hit like this. He is not the first call up though. Brooks Lee is hitting better, striking out less, and fielding better; he is just playing better overall. He is the next call up from AAA on the hitting side. It doesn't matter whether you call up an infielder or an outfielder because Castro can play either in the grass or on the dirt. That gives the Twins the luxury of calling up the best player next and that's Brooks Lee. Walter could be back but he's going to need to show improvement in the strikeout rate and continue to hit for an extended period before he's going to get another shot IMO. He was very bad for an extended period so we shouldn't just have him jump up back into the majors absent showing that he solved his problems for an extended period.

This may be recency bias, but I've soured on the idea of trading Lee at all. I'd rather he was up with the major-league club. I'm starting to think he may be thee hitter we need to pair with Lewis.

Lee up, Kepler to the IL, Castro becomes and OF. Just can't buy Wallner yet when he's striking out 33% of the time at AAA.

Agreed, the bandana is bad. And Bald at 25? Raises some real questions.

I agree with all that I would give him a call now if Kepler is going to be down for a few days, and it looks like he will. I say bring up Lee for a look and have him play 2B pretty much every day while Kepler is on the IL. Castro can play LF with Martin or Larnach in RF. Castro's versatility is such that we don't have to call up an outfielder; let's call up the guy who looks like he has the best chance of being successful at the MLB level. I think that now that's Lee.

I agree with that approach jorgenswest, I'm just not in complete agreement on who should get that look. We need another starting pitcher, a middle of the order bat, and a late inning reliever. I think the three key players to get an extended run at the MLB level are Brooks Lee and Louie Varland (first in the rotation, then the bullpen), with Festa getting at least a 2 to 3 start look in the rotation. Not only that, I think the opportunity to do so is here without disrupting clubhouse chemistry by releasing or a DFA of someone. Kepler had neck spasms in last night's game and bunted his last time up because he couldn't swing the bat. That doesn't seem like something that will clear in a day or two, more like at least a week. He's slumping as well. I would put him on the 10 day IL right now and call up Lee. I know Lee is an infielder not an outfielder, but the good news is Castro becomes the regular RF for now with Martin the primary LF, and Larnach and Margot in reserve or platoon roles. Also, Lee is a switch hitter so he replaces the left-handed bat against right-handed pitching. I say we bring up Lee and essentially give him the 2B role almost every day with Farmer playing only against left-handed pitching. On the pitching side, I would call up Varland and find a good reason to put Paddack on the 15 day IL after his start this weekend in Oakland. He's going to need the rest at some point this season and he looks like he's out of gas for now. Give Varland two or three starts and then keep him in the bullpen at the MLB level. I would also try to find a way to shoehorn in two or three starts for Festa. The idea is that when we get to mid July, we have a sense for whether we have internal options that will fill any of our needs before paying inflated prices at the midseason trade market. What about Wallner and Julien, you ask? Unfortunately, neither has shown enough in AAA to really get another shot yet. Wallner has hit well lately but against the bad pitching staffs in that league. The problem with projecting is that in AAA they play an entire week against the same team so stats get inflated against bad teams, and even against good teams you see the same relievers multiple times. It's easier to go on a hot streak in AAA. If Wallner can keep it up when they start playing the better pitching staffs, then maybe it's worth a shot. Julien has not yet had that hot streak. I think were at least three weeks to a month away from knowing whether it's worth giving either player a shot to see if they are the answer to our questions.

This is a little harsh, but only a little. I can see why Okert stays as the 7th or 8th arm in the bullpen, Margot as a RH platoon bat v. LH pitching/5th OF, Vasquez as a backup C, and even Farmer as the 26th guy. There is absolutely no reason for AJckson to be allowed to fail at the MLB level again. I feel a little pang saying this, but Thielbar is either hurt or cooked. in weither evnt, he can't stay. Moves to make: Funderburk up, Thielbar to the IL. Wittgren, Boushley, or Blewitt up, Jackson back on the DFA train. And with Kepler removing himself from the game and in a big slump anyway, Lee up, Kepler to the Il (Combo of Castro/Farmer/Lee plays 2B, Martin plays 4-5 days a week in LF and CF).

Interesting lineup. Martin at 2B, Farmer at SS, Miranda at 3B, Larnach in LF, Lewis at DH. Days off for Correa and Castro. Basically no Margot this series. Ground balls might be interesting today. Almost looks like they're trying a couple of things in anticipation of a potential roster move - can Farmer still play SS? Can Martin be a viable answer at 2B? Answering those two questions might be important. If Farmer can play SS, are the Dodgers interested in him as their backup SS/2B while Betts is out? If Martin can play 2B, can Castro be a super utility and can we open up innings at DH or in LF for Wallner? All good things to know.

This sounds like the plan. The Twins really don't have a backup SS right now. Castro is more of a "break glass in case of emergency" SS and is better suited at 2B, 3B, or in the OF. Lee seems like the logical replacement for Farmer on the roster. The hard part is if he replaces Farmer, will he play every day at 2B? Lee is a much better hitter against RH pitching so far in AAA. Now Castro is a much better hitter this year against LH pitching, although the reverse was true in 2023. So, the move would be to call up Lee, have him start at 2B against RH pitching, with Castro at 2B against Left handers. He would also be the backup SS. That means he should play SS in the Minors. Easier to play 2B after SS than the other way around.

It looks like Wallner has turned a corner, but I don't think you shoehorn him on the roster for 2 reasons. First, he wasn't just of to a slow start in April. He was awful in the 2023 playoffs, very bad in Spring Training, and beyond horrendous in 2024 at the MLB level. He then stunk in AAA for a month before getting hot. It's great that he's coming around in AAA, but let's see it for 6 weeks before he gets another MLB look. Second, where you going to play him? In LF or as a DH against RH pitching? Then where do you play Miranda, who's .292/.338/.517 (.855) against RH pitching? Or Larnach who's .260/.317./.449 (.768)? Sit Santana so Miranda can play 1B when Santana has hit .260/.360/.480 (.840) over the last 30 games, even better over the last 15, and is the superior defender? It's just hard to see a way to give Wallner many ABs without weakening the lineup. If he came back, he probably plays twice a week max. Bottom line is Wallner had a tough time for awhile, lost his spot, and two other players stepped up and took it in Miranda and Larnach. He's now going to have to wait for a chance to get a spot back. Someone will get hurt and he'll get a 10 to 14 day shot at getting back to MLB. IF he performs well, great. If not, back to AAA. He doesn't get a long look, riding out slumps, etc. He performs right away or he's back in the minors. The team is playing well and we are competitive for a playoff spot. This isn't a complete developmental year where you play guys just to see what they can do. No need to force him back into the lineup now.

Of course the Twins monitor this site. i would think much less of them if they didn't. This site is some of the hard core Twins fans. It's just smart business to know what your hard core customers are thinking. It's like a restaurant employee or owner who surreptitiously monitors their Yelp reviews. Here, it easy. You get someone to open an account, post innocuous things every now and then, and read the comments. To me. the big question is do they post or blog to flog management's opinion. I don't think so, but inquiring minds want to know . . .

This. The Dodgers didn't get to be one of the best teams in baseball just because they have money. They got there because they are really good at evaluating talent. Would the Dodgers maybe give that all time great player "cash considerations" to get Farmer as a back up IF if he was DFA'd? Maybe, may be not. But they are not going to give up anything to get him. They don't need to.

Here's a thought. Send Kirilloff and Keaschall with the Mets sending Alonso AND the $$ to pay him for the rest of 2024. I don't want to trade Festa. Pitching is too hard to find.

I started a separate thread on this. The prices being quoted in the media are in my view way too high for a guy like Pete Alonso. I also think that any thought of signing him for 2025 and beyond is a complete fantasy. He actually likes New York and wants to stay there, the only question is will the Mets pony up the contract necessary to keep him. From what I have read, he wants a little more than what Freddie Freeman got from the Dodgers – 6 years, $162 million. Beating that is what will take to sign him so let's not kid ourselves that we can get him for less. To show you the trade cost, the Athletic just published an article about "FIve Trades I'd Like To See" before the MLB trade deadline. One of them involved the Twins trading for Pete Alonso: Twins get: Pete Alonso Mets get: Alex Kirilloff, David Festa, Luke Keaschall I for one would be very irritated if the Twins made this trade. Let's start with what we get. Pete Alonso is a great hitter and would be a great fit in the middle of our lineup for the next two or three months. After that, he is going to a high revenue team for 2025 and beyond, most likely returning to the Mets. He likes it there, he likes New York, and it's only a matter of whether they will pony up the money. If the Mets won't pony up the money, another East Coast team will. I have to think the Yankees are looking for a first basemen for next season given Anthony Rizzo's struggles. Alonso is the very definition of a short term, half season rental. And that's before we think about whether ownership would be willing to part with the about $8 million he still owed for the rest of the 2024 season. Now let's think about what we would give up. I am down on Kirilloff as are many others, but he still has high end upside. I wouldn't mind using him as part of a trade given his redundancy with Larnach and Wallner (I think Miranda has won the first base job starting next season unless he falls off the table), but not when you have to give up two quality pieces to go with him. Festa is probably our best starting pitching prospect and certainly the one closest to the Majors. Keaschall is only 21 and looks to have some real upside in the middle infield. That's important when we remember that Correa is only going to be the starting SS for another 3-4 years, when he will age out. Lewis' knee injuries probably leave him at 3B for the foreseeable future. Lee or Keaschall may be the SS starting in 2026 or 2027. Way too big a package for two or three months of Pete Alonso, way too much. I might give up one of the three as long as it wasn't Festa plus a less heralded prospect or two like Schobel or Rosario, but not the three listed. It's possible that this is classic clickbait from a New York homer wanting to improve his team. If it's not, the necessary prices far too high to pay for 2 to 3 months of anyone not named Aaron Judge. This is a hard "No" for me.

The Athletic just published an article about "FIve Trades I'd Like To See" before the MLB trade deadline. One of them involved the Twins trading for Pete Alonso: Twins get: Pete Alonso Mets get: Alex Kirilloff, David Festa, Luke Keaschall I for one would be very irritated if the Twins made this trade. Let's start with what we get. Pete Alonso is a great hitter and would be a great fit in the middle of our lineup for the next two or three months. After that, he is going to a high revenue team for 2025 and beyond, most likely returning to the Mets. He likes it there, he likes New York, and it's only a matter of whether they will pony up the money. If the Mets won't pony up the money, another East Coast team will. I have to think the Yankees are looking for a first basemen for next season given Anthony Rizzo's struggles. Alonso is the very definition of a short term one season rental. And that's before we think about whether ownership would be willing to part with the about $8 million he still owed for the rest of the 2024 season. Now let's think about what we would give up. I am down on Kirilloff as are many others, but he still has high end upside. I wouldn't mind using him as part of a trade given his redundancy with Larnach and Wallner (I think Miranda has won the first base job starting next season unless he falls off the table), but not when you have to give up two quality pieces to go with him. Festa is probably our best starting pitching prospect and certainly the one closest to the Majors. Keaschall is only 21 and looks to have some real upside in the middle infield. That's important when we remember that Correa is only going to be the starting SS for another 3-4 years, when he will age out. Lewis' knee injuries probably leave him at 3B for the foreseeable future. Lee or Keaschall may be the Shortstop starting in 2026 or 2027. Way too big a package for two or three months of Pete Alonso, way too much. I might give up one of the three as long as it wasn't Festa plus a less heralded prospect or two like Schobel or Rosario, but not the three listed. My conclusion is this is classic clickbait from a New York homer wanting to improve his team. What say each of you?