LA Vikes Fan

06/14/23 Minnesota Twins optioned OF Trevor Larnach to St. Paul Saints.

I agree completely. This is the year to turn over the lineup and luckily we can do so while still having a real chance to win this very lousy division. Adding Kirilloff and Lewis as every day players and Ober as a regular in the rotation is a good first step. The next is to find a spot for Julien to lead off even when Polanco is back. It's also time to give Wallner some run, probably as a replacement for Kepler. I think Miranda will be back in July as a 1B/DH. On the pitching side, keep Varland in the rotation or try him as a late inning reliever when Maeda comes back. I would also try Headrick or Balazovic in the pen. Yes, that limits our options if we have a starter go down but I think it's a risk worth taking. Bottom line, this is a year to move up prospects, not trade them for short term vets. The only move I would make would be to trade guys at the A or A+ level for a decent reliever if we can do that. Otherwise, let's move some guys like Kepler, Pagan, or even Gallo, Solano, Farmer, or Larnach to create space. Play the guys we have on the way up.

I like the idea of Larnach for Adell. Both might benefit from a new environment. The sticking point is that the Angels don't need an corner OF and Ohtani clogs up their DH. They either want to keep Adell or trade him in a package for pitching. There may be a 3 way deal in there somewhere. I think where we disagree is not on whether Wallner deserves a shot - he does - but on what this team's needs are. We desperately need a competent leadoff hitter who can get on base and add some base stealing. Julien isn't perfect for that role because of his defensive inadequacies and he isn't going to remind anyone of Ricky Henderson, but he has been an on base machine in MiLB with some base stealing ability and has shown signs of that in his brief MLB work. Wallner has also shown signs of a good power hitter who plays an adequate corner OF. He's a #5-7 hitter. We have more than enough of those guys already so Wallner has to be a replacement for a similar profile like Gallo, Kepler, or Larnach. At least 2 of those guys need to be gone or at the end of the bench before there's really a spot for Wallner. Also, Kirilloff may need to play OF so we can get Polanco in the lineup at 1B and protect his legs while still playing Julien. That moves Wallner farther down the list for this year. Kepler and Gallo are likely not on the Twins next year so that's when he's likely to get his shot. Injuries can change all of this of course. You're right about the bottom line. Julien is getting his shot now. He has a couple of weeks (?) to play his way onto the team. If he does, that probably comes at the expense of others like Wallner.

Here's my take. I see this year as a chance to turn over the roster and still win a lousy division. This team as constructed is not a WS contender but could go someplace with a youth injection (or could tank, but worth finding out). If the team were to so what I think they should do I think the variability would go way up - higher upside, higher downside. Those things are - DFA/trade Kepler and Pagan, send Larnach to AAA. Play Lewis, Kirilloff, and Julien 5 days a week. Put Maeda in the bullpen to replace Pagan (adjust his contract), Gallo replaces Kepler, just as good in the OF/better offensive production. Buxton replaces Larnach while Julien stays because we need a leadoff hitter more than another power hitting, hitting strikeout corner OF. Polanco replaces Garlick. Typical lineup - Julien (2B/DH), Lewis (3B), Kirilloff (1B), Buxton (CF/LF), Correa (SS), Polanco (2B/DH), Gallo (RF), Jeffers/Vasquez (C), Castro/MAT(LF/CF). Bench - Solano (earned it with his hitting), MAT/Castro, Farmer, backup catcher. First men up from AAA - Wallner, Larnach, Miranda. IF we want Wallner up and can find him a spot to play, Solano gets traded. I just don't see a spot for him to play if we keep Gallo or Kepler and want to play Julien. Trading Gallo and a DFA/trade of Kepler both have to happen before Wallner gets called up. I think Julien is the guy who rates the longer look right now. If Julien or Lewis fails or Castro goes into a deep funk, then it's time for Wallner to get a shot.

06/06/23 Minnesota Twins placed CF Byron Buxton on the 10-day injured list retroactive to June 3, 2023. Left rib contusion.

Corresponding move is Buxton to the IL, retro 3 days.

Buxton to 10 day IL, Larnach up and hitting 5th tonight.

Would it help to play him in LF instead of CF, and move Castro/Gallo to CF? Yes, that hurts the defense in CF while improving it in LF but should help the offense. Taylor can be a defensive replacement. My thought is fewer chances in LF, fewer chances for injury., and more important to improv the offends that maintain the defense.

I think I understand the logic although not sure I agree with pulling Ober. Ober pitched 108 innings last season after pitching only 72 innings in 2022 and 108 in 2021 (both include MLB and MiLB). The general thinking to avoid catastrophic injury is to manage innings such that you only ramp up 20% a year. That would get Ober to 125-130 innings. We should be thrilled to get 140-150 innings from him this year. Saving a few bullets (innings) here and there may translate into 2-3 more starts in those 140-150 innings. Still, I would like to have seen him start the 7th last night. Let's find those saved innings in games where we're 2-3 runs ahead or behind, not a scoreless game with our primary divisional rival. I agree with the theory, disagree with last night's application of that theory.

I'm not a big Kepler fan at all - guy can't hit well enough for a corner OF - but I do think he would have a very valuable role on the Twins if used differently. He shouldn't be an every day player. He should be the classic 4th OF playing 2-4 times a week, INCLUDING in CF. I'd love to see him right now in a CF platoon with MAT. He should never hit higher than 7th in the order when he does play. The real problem is that Rocco likes to play him every day, won't play him in CF, and hits him too high in the order. That magnifies his weaknesses - hitting, particularly against LH pitching - and minimizes his real strength - Defense. Bottom line is the reason I think Kepler probably should be traded is that Rocco won't use him properly. It's a tough choice but I think that it's better that Kepler would be gone and those innings and ABs go to a combination of Wallner, Larnach, and Castro, rather than using Kepler as an every day OF hitting in the top 6 spots in the order.

Wallner first, regardless of who goes on IL. Don't forget that Castro can play 3B pretty well and is decent at 2B so we don't have to bring up an infielder if Correa goes out with Lewis and Farmer around to play short, and Castro and Solano to back up both 3B and 2B. If two guys go on the IL? Very tough because there isn't another healthy hot player in AAA outside of Wallner. I would guess Julien is next though, rather than Miranda unless Miranda has really started to come on.

Agreed. The offense is really the issue. I guess that's what makes the continued use of Kepler and Taylor in particular so frustrating. Both have a pretty consistent track record of offensive futility. It is very unlikely they will be better than their career averages and in the case of Kepler, it's becoming more and more evident that he is on the downward slope. Corner outfielder's need to hit and it's more important that they hit then that they field as long as there are at least adequate.Yes, defense important particularly in CF so I understand Taylor a little more. Personally, I would give Castro some run in CF if we're not going to play Buxton there and see if he can handle the position the field. The offense needs to improve. The most obvious ways to do that are to (1) replace Kepler with either Wallner or LArnach (when he's healthy) on an everyday basis - they may not be better but it difficult for them to be worse and the potential for better is there, (2) give Castro the majority of work in CF (4+ days a week) so we can get him, Lewis and Gallo all in the lineup together, and (3) get Buxton in centerfield 2-3 days a week with Castro there most of the other time. This would replace Kepler and Taylor in the lineup with Castro and either Wallner or Larnach once the latter is available, and potentially open up the DH spot two – three days a week to get guys a partial day off and/or to get Wallner, Larnach, Farmer, and Solano in the lineup more regularly – even potentially Jeffers when he is not catching. I think that would definitely help the lineup.

Julien looks like the classic guy who could be an asset in another year or two but isn't quite ready now. The difference between a quality AAA player and a quality MLB player is in the details and consistency. That's where he has his issues. He is inconsistent in the field, inconsistent at the plate, and needs a lot more refinement on defense. I think the bottom line is he just isn't quite ready yet and is probably more of a 2024 consideration in the 2023 asset although it is nice to have someone like that for depth. I do think he can be a quality major-league player at second base so I don't think we should move him to 1B or make him the centerpiece of a trade. Instead, have him continue to really focus on defense at AAA.

I agree. I would like to see them continue the trend by playing Wallner over Kepler, Julien over Solano, and Castro over Taylor. Doing this requires Buxton to play the field. Put Maeda in the bullpen when he's ready over Pagan and leave Ober and Varland in the rotation. To me, that's the youth movement we need.

I agree that we tend to be a little too negative here about the team. I think that's because we had higher expectations than were justified. The 'experts" predicted 80-85 wins. I think we're going to be on the higher end of that - after 1/3 of the season we projected to 84 wins (28-26 x 3 = 84-78) - and that's with injury issues. I think we may have overhyped ourselves into thinking this was a 90+ win team and anything less than that seems like a disappointment. I'm an optimist because I think the hardest thing to find is good starting pitching and we have a very good rotation that looks like it will be good in the future. We have some young talent that looks like it may be coming of age in Kirilloff and Jeffers, and we have Lewis, Julien, Castro, Wallner, and Larnach who may join them. All positive and all fun. Here's the 2 things that drag me down. First, Correa and Buxton are simply not performing and it's starting to look like it's more than just a slump. I don't think Buxton will perform as a DH. It's hard to do that and I think he would benefit from playing in the field, injury risk and all. Frankly, having him on the IL is not a whole lot less production than we've gotten from him the last 15-20 games. Correa looks hurt and should sit for 10 days if we think that will help. If not, move him to the 5 or 6 hole and leave him there until he hits. Second, I just don't understand why we won't embrace the youth movement. We need to accept that we probably aren't a WS contender and this could be a great year to play the younger guys, develop them, and probably still win the division. The old core simply isn't good enough. We need to play Kirilloff, Lewis, Castro, Julien, and Wallner every day to see what they got. Catch Jeffers 50% or more of the time. Instead, we trot out guys who don't really contribute much and won't be here next year - Kepler, Solano, Taylor, Pagan and soon Maeda (watch, he will go into the rotation and Varland will go to AAA). Gallo is ok but not really what we need. DFA Solano, bench or trade Kepler and Taylor, call up Wallner, see if there's a market for Gallo, and put Buxton in the field so the younger guys can play every day by opening up the DH spot and LF. This could be a fun team to watch and it just isn't very fun or very successful. I'm willing to take a chance on our short term success to make them more fun and improve our long term chances. Turn over the roster and go.

How about moving Buxton to LF? Yes, still injury concerns but fewer chances assumedly means less risk. Castro (60%) and Taylor (40%) play CF. Gallo plays RF/1B 80% of the time, same for Kirilloff (at 1B unless Gallo has a leg issue), and Kepler plays RF the days Gallo or Kirilloff sit or DH. Also opens up a spot for Julien to stay, play 2B 2-3 days a week while Polanco sits or DHs. I don't know if that really solves the problem but helps.

Would there be less risk if we played Buxton in LF? IF so, who wins and loses in that scenario? it would open up the DH spot which might allow us to get more ABs out of Polanco, and keep Julien, Wallner or Larnach on the roster and give them 4 days a week in the lineup. It means Gallo plays RF and Kepler sits, with MAT and Castro playing in CF. Kepler loses out but he isn't hitting and hasn't hit since 2019. Something that should be considered?

Sending down Wallner seems strange ... until you think about who else we have. Castro has been one of if not our best hitter over the last 30 games (.270/.333/.436). Gallo leads the team in HRs and it's way too early for them to cut bait on the investment. Farmer is in a slump at the plate, but we need a backup SS and he's had good stretches at the plate too. Julien will go down on a day or two when Polanco is ready to come back. The obvious two to wonder about are Solano and Kepler. Solano does give us a RH decent bat, but no power and not much else. Kepler is who he is, a weak bat great glove corner OF. Add to that the fact that there's no DH to give Wallner regular ABS and the answer is unfortunately pretty clear. I would have liked to see Buxton go back to the OF or maybe have kept Wallner over Solano but you can't fault the logic of what was done. My hpe is that we'll trade either Gallo or Kepler for relief pitching and open up a spot.

You're right on. Buxton in CF tomorrow? How about Willi Castro if they want to keep Buxton DH'ing?

I think you're right unless.... can he play a a passable CF? MAT is way off, may be because of his back issues. I see an IL stint coming for him. Castro as an everyday CF a possibility?

It may be a pitch sequence thing as well as a pitch usage issue. When batters consistently can foul off a sweeper, that suggest that they have a good idea that it's coming. He may be relying too much on his "best" pitch when it's a pitch that is more swing and miss effective off of a fastball or sinker. The stats suggest that he's over reliant on the sweeper. My thought is more fastballs and sinkers could lead to a more effective out pitch with the sweeper. BTW, this lines up with the eye test when I've watched the games. Jax pitches well but lacks an out pitch that can get the swing and miss or pop up kind of contact. He has real trouble putting hitters away when he gets ahead. He reminds a little of Jake Odorizzi - good stuff but lacked an out pitch so 6 innings took 100 plus pitches to get through, and the ball was always in play so there were a lot of "lucky" hits against him.

Two keys for me. First, get Lewis up on May 29, especially if Correa needs 10-15 days for his foot. Second, do NOT demote Wallner; play him every day while we are facing RH starters. Let's see what these two guys can do and if they can be the necessary reinforcements this season. Let's find that out now so we have some intel before we hit trading season. How? Demote Garlick if Kepler is ready and keep Wallner. Promote Lewis if Correa or Gallo has to go on the Il.. If not, promote him Monday and demote/DFA Garlick (if Kepler is still out), Solano or Julien. If Polanco is ready, either Julien, Solano or or Castro goes - I would keep up Castro and DFA/demote Solano. Unlikely that there's much of a market for Solano at his age and he's a one year guy anyway. My overall point is let's find NOW if the MiLB/new guys we have can help us this year. That's Lewis, Castro, Wallner, and Kirilloff. I don't think Julien is quite ready yet and his defense is just... not good. Keep the other 4 up at the expense of guys like Solano and Garlick, and move Kepler if you need to in order to create room. How do we create ABs? Here's an idea - play Buxton in LF, not CF, 3-4 of days a week to open up the DH spot. Less balls to LF, less injury risk. Have CF be mostly Castro, with Taylor doing what h we brought him here to do - play CF against LH pitching and in late inning defensive situations. Gallo can DH to rest his hammy and Wallner can play RF or vice versa. We can get a preliminary read on Wallner over the next 10 days and we can get Lewis acclimated. Let's do it.

Nice and needed win yesterday, but bighat is unfortunately right about the offense as many of us have mentioned in the past. The offense is that it is best average or slightly above average when everyone is available. It is much less than that when there are injuries. Bottom line is that for this offense to be even top half we need Polanco and Correa back and hitting, Buxton to hit .260 plus, not .235, Kirilloff to be a competent #3-#5 hitter and Lewis to come up and give us a spark. I wouldn't get my hopes up for Kepler to help on offense - he is what he is and he isn't a good hitter. For this offense to work we need premier production from Correa and Buxton, very good production from Polanco and Kirilloff, Gallo to hit 35 plus HRs with a .340 plus OBP, Lewis to come up and be a competent leadoff type hitter, and then real offensive contributions from at least two of Farmer, Larnach, Wallner, Taylor, Jeffers, Vasquez, and Kepler. All of those things are possible. Having all those things happen in the same season is pretty unlikely. I would like to see two moves over the next couple of months. First, we badly need another reliever. I would give DeLeon, Balazovic and Lawyerson a real shot for the next six weeks to be a solid bullpen piece. You can make that happen through injuries, putting Sands on the shuttle, or frankly getting rid of Pagan since we know he is not the answer. If that doesn't work, trade Kepler and a decent prospect for a solid relief pitcher. I would love a guy like Chapman (probably too expensive in prospects), be thrilled with a guy like Dylan Florio, and even accept Brad Hand. Second, give Lewis, Wallner, and Julien a decent run in the lineup over that same time. To see if they can be contributors this year. If not, make a trade for another bat preferably one to play left field. They say you spent the first two months of the season seeing what you have, the second two months trying to fill in your holes, and the last two months you play with what you have. We can see the holes in the bullpenand in the lineup. Let's be aggressive and proactive about trying to fill those holes first with younger guys already in the organization and then trades around the All-Star break if that doesn't pan out. Let's just not keep running the same people out there over and over expecting different results.

I think you may have the wrong Castro. MLB.com says Willi Castro has 1083 ABS, 1176 plate appearances. He's just turned 26 in April. He's never had more than 413 ABs in any MLB season. He may never be a competent MLB starter but he's young enough and it's early enough in his development that there is at least a chance he could become more than his stats said he was coming into this season.

This. I would add one other thought. The AL Central is pretty awful this year. There's likely to be some ups and downs with Lewis; most players have those when they first come up. This is a year where the team can endure those and still have a real chance to win the division. Let's take advantage of that and give Lewis and Kirilloff an every day run. Add Larnach if Buxton ever goes back to the OF and opens up the DH spot or if Kepler gets traded. Leave him at 3B and SS though. No need to take a bigger injury risk by playing him in the OF where he got hurt last year and where he hasn't played this year. Play him where he's going to play long term.