LA Vikes Fan

Is it just me or does anyone else think that Lee should move up to the #2 or #3 hole? Larnach has been kind of meh there. Go Castro, Correa, Lee, Miranda, Santana, Kepler, Buxton, Larnach, Catcher. easy tomorrow since Vasquez will be catching. I do have to admit though that changing the lineup when they're scoring 6 runs a game may be a little much. still, I would like to see Lee moved up.

I hear you and agree with your analysis of where Festa is now but I don't agree on the gloomy prognosis. Right now, Festa is a guy with a plus slider, slightly better than average fastball, and no third pitch who needs to work on his command. He's also only 24 and in his first full season at AAA. In 17 AAA starts over the last 2 seasons, he pitched 72 innings and given up 29 earned runs for an overall ERA of 3.625 in a hitter's league. HIs SO rate per 9 is above 11 but his BABIP is a concerning .350. I agree that he needs a third pitch or at best he's a reliever at the MLB level. That lack of a good 3rd pitch also helps explain the high BABIP. IF he develops that change up to an average MLB change up, he's a 4th or 5th starter at the MLB level. He does that and improves his fastball movement and he could be a mid-rotation or better guy,. I think the odds are actually 50/50 or so that Festa can develop that pitch and be a viable MLB starter. I say we give him at least through 2025 to find out.

Transaction is Festa down to AAA, Josh Winder up to the Twins.

I'm interested in any of the 3 with a preference for Garcia due to the years of control.

The verdict is in. Festa down, Josh Winder up.

Wow, that's ugly. I read that Festa was packing his bags Thursday to go down. Is this the return of Josh Winder (who has lousy AAA stats)? Are we calling up a position player like Wallner and going with a 7 man bullpen? Or, could it be that there's a trade in the works that will open up a 40 man spot? Should be interesting . . .

Turns out I was wrong on Paddack. He went on the 15 day IL on 6/25, retroactive to 6/22. He is available to start next Monday. Festa is going down, expect a reliever for the weekend but only Varland and Winder are on the 40 man. Henriquez hasn’t spent his 20 days yet in AAA. My guess is Varland up for the weekend in the Bullpen, maybe through the ASB.

I don't think Festa will (or should) get another start. His turn comes up Monday 7/8 in Chicago. With the off day next Thursday, we can pitch Ober today, next Tuesday, and again on Sunday the 14th. Then it's the ASB so it's only this one start next Monday we have to cover. Paddack went on the 15 day IL on 6/25 so he isn't available until the 10th. The only obvious AAA on the 40 man answers are Caleb Boushley and Louie Varland. Boushley pitched last night (poorly, but was good until then), so he is on track for Monday. Varland is not pitching well in AAA so he would be a real crapshoot. I would give Boushley a one game audition against the worst team in the AL to see if there's anything there. Festa has talent but he just isn't ready yet. Send him back down to work on his command. He'll be back and I would guess he's back this year unless we trade for another starter.

Miami has said they won’t trade Luzardo since he’s on the 60 day IL and won’t be available until August. He’s an offseason project. The guy to be looking at is Tyler Anderson of the Angels. He’s having a great year and has a reasonable contract at 13m a year that runs through 2025. I think he could be had for 2 prospects in the top 30 who aren’t in the top 10. It’s a steep price, but pitching is extremely expensive this time of year. While we’re at it, see what they want for Carlos Estevez in the bullpen but don’t spend a lot on him. Great relief pitcher when he’s on, MLB reliever of the month in June, but he’s not always on.

I see the logic, but don't entirely agree because retals tend to be expensive. Still, who is said mercenary? The only guy that would make any sense to me is Tanner Scott of the Marlins. A great LH closer/late inning guy would really help us. But boy will he be expensive. May cost one of the 7 top 100 guys or, if not, 2 of the best right after those 7, probably including Luke Keaschall. I just don't see any other rentals. I looked at the 92 trade targets in the Athletic and didn't see any rental fit on the hitting side. The only guys are DH types like JD Martinez and Christian Walker. We don't need that and it would take away ABs from Miranda, Lewis, Larnach, and Martin without improving the team. Bad call. Maybe Danny Jansen could help but Toronto would have to take on the Vasquez contract. Doesn't seem likely. On the starting pitcher front, the only decent rental guys out there are Flaherty, Kikuchi, and maybe Severino. Not sure Detroit would trade us Flaherty and I don't want to send an in-division rival a possible long term piece for 2 months of a guy who wasn't very good in 2020, 2022, or 2023. Kikuchi is having a lousy year in 2024 and stunk in 2022, rebounding to an ok but not great 2023. Severino is a huge injury risk and had an awful 2023. Just don't see it. The better move IF we are going to trade real prospects is to get someone controllable and affordable if we can. Three logical choices are Tyler Anderson, Luis Rengifo, or Taylor Ward of the Angels. Anderson has two years left at 13m a year, so he's a little less than 20m for the rest of 2024 and all of 2025. Would be a solid #3 or very good #4 starter. Rengifo is killing it this year (.319/.362/.448 (.810)) after a good 2023 (.783 OPS,) and has a year left of arbitration. Ward has a .762 OPS this year after an .833 in 2022 and .756 in 2023, and is a 20 plus homer guy controllable in arbitration through 2026. The Angels need younger, controllable players. I would like to see the Twins think about trading guys like Schobel, Cory Lewis, Keirsey, Mathews, De Andrade, or maybe even Julien for Anderson and/or Rengifo. The rentals? Not much there other than Scott IMHO.

Stewart to the 60 day IL makes perfect sense. He's at or almost at 60 days now and he's a least a couple of weeks away. Plus, I think he gets a rehab window.

Good question on the 40 man and who is going on the IL to make room on the 26 man? I assume it's Lewis but haven't seen or heard anything. I hope Lee starts tonight at either 2B or 3B and stays in the everyday lineup through the ASB. Let's find out if he has the chops to hit at the MLB level.

One addition to my last post. I would seriously look at Tyler Anderson if we cold get him without trading on of the top 9 prospects. He's a good but inconsistent LH starter on a reasonable contract ($13m a year) with a year and a half to run. His ERA is 3.03 this year, was 5.43 last year, and 2.57 in 2022. Classic crafty lefty, not a power arm, with a pretty good SO to BB ratio. Needs a good defense behind him to be successful, which explains a lot of his inconsistency year to year. Would slot in as a solid #3, very good #4 starter. I think he's worth a top 20 prospect (not in the top 10), plus another guy in the 20-30 range - maybe a package like Cory Lewis, Rosario, or Andrew Morris, plus Yunior Severino or Ben Ross.

A LH middle of the order bat would be nice but there's no where to play anybody without taking away ABs from someone playing pretty well. I guess we could get someone to take Larnach's place but it's hard to see any available LH hitting upgrade in our price range. Luis Rengifo would be a great get and would really fit this roster well, IF he doesn't cost us any of the top 9 prospects. Schobel on down would be ok if we only trade one, not multiples, and I think he'll fetch more than that from somebody else. Besides, we have Lee, then Wallner, in AAA to come up in case of injury or ineffectiveness. Just don't see a need or good reason to trade for a bat unless it's a fair trade not involving the top 9. Hard to see that happening at a trade deadline where the are a lot more buyers than sellers. A bullpen piece would be nice, particularly a LH reliever. Taanner Scott would be great but he will be expensive and is only a rental. Same for Chapman and Diekman, although maybe a little less expensive. More likely that we would target a mid-level guy like Matt Moore, Jalen Beeks, or Andrew Chafin (if Det. would even trade with us). Those last 3 might only cost a solid AA guy, not an elite level prospect. The most likely result IMHO is the Twins do nothing at the trade deadline. I think we roll with what we have in the lineup (plus possibly Lee, Wallner, and/or Keirsey at some point). The price for starting pitching will be waaaay too high, and I just don't see a reliever that helps and that won't cost a fortune other than those last 3. I think there will be a lot of competition for those guys and the price will be beyond what the Twins should pay.

I think the denominator in calculating SO and BB rate is plate appearances, not at bats. He gets "credit" for not striking out when he walks, gets HBP, or hits a sacrifice. He has 233 plate appearances and 64 strikeouts. That's a strike out rate of 27.46%, not 29.8%. So, a little better, but still above the MLB average as you would expect for a power hitter with a .460 SLG, .491 in the last 30 games, .714 in the last 15.

I'm curious as to whom Santana's OPS has changed against RH pitching over time. His OPS is up in May and waaaay up in June compared to April. I suspect but don't know that his OPS against RH pitching is much higher than .715 since May 1 but I can't find that stat anywhere. Does anyone know where that's available? I agree that if his OPS is a consistent .715- .725 against RH pitching we should be looking for a LH hitting 1B/DH since Miranda hits RH pitching well. I guess .715-.725 is better than average this year, average being .700, but you'd still think we can do better at the plate. I think the big Issues are that Santana is a gold glove candidate at 1B, and Miranda definitely is not, and there really isn't any hitter on the roster that could use more ABs against right-handed pitching. Larnach and Kepler basically play every day against RH pitching. There isn't anyone in AAA that's pounding at the door unless you think Brooks Lee is after a relatively small number of at bats. Now maybe Lee or Wallner could hit better at the DH slot against RH pitching but there is a real risk they can't at this point, particularly with Wallner. So, if you basically take out Santana against right-handed pitching you weaken the defense for a very uncertain upside at the plate. Add to that that I think without knowing for sure that his OPS against RH pitching has probably been closer to .750 or higher since May 1 and that hitting upside becomes even more uncertain. The combination of much better defense and improved hitting is why I think that at this point Santana is an everyday player for this team.

Absolutely no need to trade either Santana or Miranda and trading Miranda would be actionable malpractice IMHO. Santana, Maranda, and Louis should occupy the 1B/3B/DH spots five games out of six. There are plenty of ABs for all three. It limits the potential DH ABs for others, but who are those others and why would we want to keep ABs available for them? Jeffers is a good hitting catcher who should play more at that position, but his bat doesn't scream get me in the lineup ahead of any of those three. Margot is a platoon player at best, Larnach can play LF well enough to be out there against RH pitching, Castro has found a home at 2B, and using Martin in a 2 to 3 games a week capacity in the outfield for guys resting is perfect for his development. There's absolutely no reason we need to find more ABs for Farmer or Vasquez, that's for sure. Other than maybe Brooks Lee, there really isn't anyone at AAA good enough that you make a trade to open a spot, and I'm not even sure you do that for Lee. I actually don't think we have to worry about getting a spot for any of the AAA players because this great run of health is not gonna last forever and they'll get a shot at some point. There is no need to make a trade. In fact, making a trade would weaken the team unless we got a frontline starter in return. That is not happening. I think the plan is clear and makes a lot of sense. Santana, Maranda, and Lewis hold down third base, first base, and DH this year. Miranda works hard at being a better defensive 1B because he takes that position over on an everyday basis next season if Santana isn't back or 2026 at the latest. Either Castro or Brooks Lee is the everyday 2B next year with the other the guy that is thrown into the mix to play some 2B, some 3B, some DH, and and occasional day at SS. In modern baseball, you need six "regulars" to hold down the four infield spots plus the DH. That's particularly true for the Twins because we do not have a surplus of good hitting OFs such that we need to keep the DH spot open for one of them. We have the guys for the IF plus DH slots and there's no reason to get rid of any of them.

Agreed. I just don’t think Kepler has a lot of value, not enough to bring in trade someone that will help the Twins this year. More likely a decent but not great AA prospect is the best we can hope for. To get a good reliever for Kepler, probably have to attach a decent prospect like Tanner Schobel. I also agree with the comments that Matt Waller is probably not a great replacement. Frankly, if Kepler went down, I would hope they would give Keirsey the first shot at the position. I just don’t see a Kepler trade making a lot of sense. I don’t think we get much back in return and there isn’t anyone for whom we need to clear a spot. The best argument is trade him to get something before he leaves in free agency, but that kind of leaves me cold since we have a contending team. I would rather keep him and hope this year‘s second half is a reprise of last year’s second half then trade him for the mediocre return we’re likely to receive.

Is there any way you can track guys not on the prospects list who were already on the Twins and might be considered to come back? I know Wallner and Julien are no longer "Prospects" due to their MLB experience but it would be nice to see their stats tracked every day to see if they are making progress towards coming back. Maybe an "Others of Note" listing or something like that? Could also be used for guys playing well but not on the top 20.

I have a slightly different lineup in mind - Castro LF Correa SS Miranda/Lewis 3B/1B/DH (whoever is hotter, right now Miranda) Santana 3B/1B/DH Buxton CF Lewis/Miranda 3B/1B/DH Lee 2B (up for Martin or Larnach, Castro goes to LF) Jeffers C Kepler/Margot platoon RF

Agree on result for at least some of those other players, disagree in whether to and how to bring Lee up. The guys who will lose ABs if you bring Lee up are Trevor Larnach, Manuel Margot, and Austin Martin. Lee will be at least the LH hitting 2B and also play a day a week at SS. Castro becomes the every day LF - he's good out there defensively and deserves to play every day. Miranda, Santana, and Lewis will hold down the 1B/3B/DH spots 5 days out of 6. That leaves only 2 or 3 games a week in either LF when Castro sits, CF when Buxton sits, or RF when Kepler sits, for Martin, Margot, and Larnach, plus maybe one day a week as a DH. Where I disagree is I think that the change might be a net gain and is worth exploring. While the most direct route is to DFA Farmer, he does have some value as a RH IF playing 2 days a week and provides injury depth. Instead, I would like to see the Twins try to trade Larnach or Martin plus a B level minor leaguer for a solid to good reliever and a low level minor league lottery ticket, or even straight up for an good but 30 plus year old reliever on a bad team. I don't think you can get more than that. It's not so risky because if Lee bombs, then Castro goes back to 2B and one of Larnach/Martin. plus Margot and Wallner (up for Lee if he bombs and is demoted) play LF and act as OFs 3 through 5. Larnach or Martin gets a chance to play every day for say Miami, Oakland, or the Angels. If Lee hits, you've lengthened the lineup with a switch hitter who should strengthen the IF defense. So to me, the real question is do you think Lee can provide more offense than one of Larnach or Martin? I think he can. So I think the real issue isn't should we lose Farmer, it's how do we get Lee up and into the lineup. That's something that requires a trade (or demotion) of Larnach or Martin or a DFA of Farmer. Watch, an injury will change all of this - almost did Thursday night. Have to believe that if Correa was out for 4-6 weeks with a fractured wrist, Lee would be up as the everyday SS in his place.

Castro is the biggest and most important surprise. Second biggest and second most important - Jose Miranda. His hitting against RH pitching and consistent RBI production has really helped make up for the poor performances from Julien, Wallner, and the last month or so of Kepler. He should be playing every day and hitting in the 4 or 5 spot.

None of these payers do a lot for me because I don't think they really address the 3 needs we have - a middle of the order LH bat to hit 4 or 5, a #3 or better starter controllable after 2024, and a solid or better LH late inning reliever. Those are the only players worth giving up much prospect capital for IMHO. I really hope the Twins try to see if they have players to fill any of those needs before July 20. I do think that giving Festa a start or 3 and calling up Funderburk was a step in that direction. I just don't think those guys are good enough yet to fill the bill. On the hitter, maybe Kepler goes back to May Kepler instead of June Kepler (April was fine, not great), or maybe Larnach can take the next step up, but the prognosis isn't good for either of those things to happen. I would really like to see Lee and maybe even Wallner get up and get some run at the MLB level before trading decisions are made. Maybe one of them can be that #5 LH hitter behind Castro, Correa, Lewis and Miranda (who should be hitting 4th every day alternating as either the DH, IB or 3B IMO). Find that guy with Santana, Buxton, and Jeffers hitting 6-8 and you have a really deep lineup. My prediction is the Twins either just roll with what they have or make a lower level trade for a LH reliever, The reliever would be someone like Matt Moore of the Angels, Jalen Beeks of Colorado, or maybe Chafin from Detroit but he probably requires an overpay. Detroit will and should deal him out of the division if the offered return is the same. I could also see them trying to get Tyler Anderson from the Angels but I suspect the price is going to be way too high for 1.5 years of a solid to good but not great LH starter. I enjoy the deadline talk but I just don't see the Twins making much of a move this year.

Injuries may do this for us, but I strongly agree that we have to get some exposure at the MLB level to current AAA guys who are going to need to be on the 26 man roster next year. The funny thing is I think that's exactly what's happening. I'm actually encouraged by the fact that Martin is up with the Twins and is actually getting some real playing time since I think he is one of the players will need next year, and the fact that they brought Festa up after bringing Varland up to get one start and one long relief appearance. I think we can agree on two fundamental working assumptions (1) next year's payroll isn't likely to go up much other than already built in raises, and (2) at least Margot and Farmer are likely to be gone, with Santana a wildcard a age 39, and Kepler an unknown. In order to know what we have we need to get Martin, Larnach, Mirnada, Lee, Festa, Varland (starter and in the bullpen), Funderburk, Julien, Wallner, and Kirilloff (coming back from injury) a look. Keirsey might also be worth a look. As much as we all like to complain here, the ironic thing is the FO is actually be giving these guys a fair shot for the most part. On the pitching side, Varlnad has had 5 starts and 1 long relief appearance, Festa is now getting a start that hopefully becomes 2 or 3 (or more), and Funderburk's had numerous opportunities out of the bullpen. On the lineup side, Miranda is rapidly establishing himself as a fixture on the roster, Martin is back for his second trip and is actually hitting well the second time around, and Larnach is getting regular at bats with decent but not great results., Wallner and Julien both got long looks at the front of the season. They both failed and had to be sent back to AAA. Hopefully they'll get another look but it's not like they haven't had an opportunity, they just failed to take advantage of that opportunity so far this year. Kirilloff's injuries have once again derailed our chance to get a good look and the fact that he is hurt again may tell us what we need to know about our ability to rely on him for next year. Lee hasn't had his chance yet but that's because of injury. I personally think he is the next man up pretty much regardless of who goes down because of Castro's positional flexibility. My point here is that I agree that these AAA guys have to have their shot this year. I think it has to be this year because I think we can still compete for a wildcard spot using these young guys and our chances of catching Cleveland this year are not great. The ironic part is I think the FO is doing exactly that; giving all of these guys a fair shot. Maybe my complaints and constant agitation to get people up to the big club is actually misplaced.

That's the question with Wallner. I'd love to see him come up rake like he did last September but it would really hurt if he came up and struck out 50% plus of the time like he did in the playoffs last year and in April this year (he was bad in Spring Training too). His SO rate is over 33% in AAA d so far this year, not good at all, but it has been better lately. We really need to see a SO rate of around 235% or less at AA for an extended period before he's worth the risk IMHO. I think Wallner is probably 2 or 3 more good weeks of hitting away from a call up. Of course, an injury or two could change everything.