LA Vikes Fan

I think we have to assume that Mahle is not coming back for at least a while. I think Varland earned himself a more extended look. Also, I understand Ober will be starting for the Saints over the weekend. If he pitches well, I would like to see a rotation of Gray, Ryan, Bundy, Ober and Varland for the rest of the year. We could add in archer and go with a 6 man rotation since Ryan is starting to run out of gas but we just don't win his starts so I would drop him. When and if Mahle is ready to actually return I would drop out Varland or Ober, whichever one is performing the worst. I would put Winder in the bullpen for the rest of the year in long relief. His constant shoulder issues are a red flag for trying to start him this year. Having said that, we have a "TBD" starter for Sunday. I'm guessing that's going to be Sanchez. Yet I wonder, would that be a good spot for Ober or Winder or even the two of them in combination? We could drop Sanchez and option Megill or Sands to create the room. Varland pitched Wednesday so that may be a day too soon for him, but I would be tempted to think about him starting on 3 days rest. I just don't want to go through a critical 3 game series and trot out Bundy, Archer, and Sanchez as the starting pitchers.

Always good to have subtlety appreciated.

You may have gotten your wish. Garlick is starting in RF for the first game today against the RH starter German. Kepler not in the lineup.

Bundy deserves to be on this list. He’s been the Twins 2nd or 3rd best starter this year, yet everyone is always trying to get rid of him.

Wallner is a nice story but Palacios is a much more important story. Palacios is probably the Twins starting SS next year if Correa goes, at least until Lewis comes back mid season. He may have a chance next year to cement himself as an MLB SS IF he can hit a little bit. If Correa comes back or is signed long term and Lewis stays on track, Palacios could become a very valuable trade chip - a guy who has already shown he can play SS at an above average MLB level defensively who now has shown he can hit AAA pitching. That asset is worth a AAA pitcher with MLB starter upside in a trade. His hitting improvement at AAA is great to see and great for the organization.

Zambora the gorilla girl? I should not admit this but I’m in my early 60s and I remember Zambora the gorilla girl from going to the state fair when I was a teenager. That can’t still exist. And you’re right, the one where she escaped is much better than the sanitized version. More pathos, more drama, just better. Period.

I think this guy is a 2-3 game experiment and gone when we need a spot. It might be a soon as Saturday when we need to activate Mahle. We DFA the guy, no one claims him, and he finishes the season in St. Paul while we see if he can be fixed.

Interesting that the callup for the extra pitching roster spot turned out to be the newly acquired lefty reliever, Austin Davis, right after we brought in Moran for Smeltzer. It seems like left handers in the bullpen became a priority for September. Moran has to stay the rest of the year or he cold be lost on waivers since he is on his 5th callup. I'm guessing Davis will get his shot and he is the cannon fodder if we need to make another move down the road. So who now goes when Mahle comes off the IL on Saturday? DFA Aaron Sanchez? Archer to the IL? Option Megill? Maybe that's why Davis is on the 26 man now, to go when Mahle gets called up?

This would work just as well, same basic concept - let's piggyback Archer and Sanchez in September since they both look like 4-5 inning starters. I suggested starting Sanchez since I think he has a better chance of getting through 5 but I would be fine with Archer going 4, followed by Sanchez for the next 4-5.

I'm hoping that the next turn for that spot on Monday is a Sanchez/Archer piggyback with Sanchez going to first 4-6 followed by Archer for another 3-4. We have the extra pitcher in September. Archer comes in for a clean inning; if Sanchez needs a mid inning replacement it's handled by Theilbar or Fulmer.

As you saw from my earlier post, I'm waffling on whether or not to keep Urshela if we lose Correa. I think your logic convinced me that we probably should keep him around regardless. He is not a great player but he is a useful player and excellent insurance if Miranda suffers a major sophomore slump, Arraez reverts to a .280 hitter with no power, Kirilloff can't hit, Polanco gets hurt and Arraez plays 2B, etc. $8m is actually not a lot for a slightly above average MLB player and it also won't buy you the #1 starting pitcher we really need.

I think were being a little harsh on Ted. He's right; all 3 additions were positive and all 3 have the potential to really help us in the September stretch run. Moreover, prospect cost was not very high. None of the prospects traded profiles as much more than a decent MLB player and most of them will not ever last long on an MLB roster or even get to one. Moreover, all of the acquisitions except Fullmer are controllable for another year and I suspect that the Twins will make real efforts to sign something long-term with Mahle and Lopez, and at least another one-year deal with Fullmer. The other criticisms are valid, although a little bit overstated, but that's not the real point of the article. This isn't about the Front Office performance for the year, it's about how they did at the trade deadline. They did well. I do agree that we needed another bat and didn't get one. I would love to have seen us trade for Vazquez instead of Leon but I really wonder if we had enough prospect capital to get that done. It's hard to get decent catchers and you generally have to overpay. The cream of our farm system is frankly sitting on the MLB roster or the injured list so the trade capital was limited. Still would've liked another bat though. I think you have to give the FO an A or A- for their performance at the trade deadline. Each of us have our own grades for their performance overall for the year. I suspect those grades would be lower.

Is Jose Palacios related to Jermaine Palacios?

That's why now is the time if you're going to do this . . .

I think the perfect spot to give him a try frankly is Tuesday against Boston. He last pitched Thursday the 26th and went 6 innings, 91 pitches. Archer is gassed and that's his day. Put Archer on the IL for 15 days and give this start to Varland. He is then on the 26 man on 9/1, and is replaced when Mahle comes back on 9/2 or 9/3. If Varland is somehow lights out Tuesday then they can send down Megill or Smeltzer for Mahle, both of whom will have been on the roster on 9/1. If I understand how this works that means all of them are playoff eligible in case of injury, need, etc. There's very little downside and some real possible upside in giving Varland a chance. Best case we catch lightning in a bottle for September in Varland and Archer comes back stronger after 15 days off. Worst case Varland gets torched but how much worse is that than another Archer start in his current condition? We have an off day Thursday so the #5 spot only has to come up twice in the 15 day Archer IL stint and we have Smeltzer if we need another spot start. I say let's do this!

Just went to Urshela's Baseball Reference page and realized he's already 30 and will be 31 in October. I don't know why I thought he was younger than that, but I did. I also saw that his slash line this year of .266/.307/.426 (.733) is right in line with his career average of .270/.314/.428 (.742). His career average is a little inflated by 2019 and 2020, years we aren't going back to with the change in the baseball. Add in his poor defensive ratings and the presence of both Miranda and Gordon to play 3B next year, it's hard to see a good case for keeping Urshela at $8m plus a year next year. IF, and it is a big IF, Larnach is around out play LF next year AND Kirilloff is available to play 1B or the OF it's hard to see a place for Urshela other than as a UTL/DH fighting for playing time with Arraez. It's hard to see a 31 year old, average hitting, poor fielding (at least by the stats) corner INF at $8m plus fitting on the roster. Maybe he would sign for a lesser amount or we can trade him for prospects but committing to him through arbitration is a tough sell.

Frankly, it may be that it's time to shut Archer down for the season. He really isn't providing much value as a starter. None of the replacements are great, but they are all better than he is right now. Archer looks completely cooked for the season.

Urshela and Sanchez are both tough decisions. I see Urshela as the classic starter on a second division team, utility guy on a contender. Sanchez is a 2nd catcher/position share guy with a strong defensive LH hitting catcher on a contender. All good in theory but the decision boils down to options. I come out differently on the two of them primarily because of what else we have. With Urshela, a lot depends on what happens with Correa. If he's back, Urshela should go and we should use his roster spot for a bat first RH DH type with Miranda and Arraez playing 3b and 1B until Lewis gets back, then Lewis plays 3B and one of those two is the DH. If Correa goes, I'm torn but then we should probably keep Urshela to have infield depth. I would want him in a utility/DH role with Miranda getting the everyday 3B reps. The only way we can find out if Miranda can play 3B on an everyday basis is to play him there on an everyday basis, Sanchez is easier. We don't have another MLB quality catcher other than Jeffers, catchers are very hard to find, and they are impossible to trade for without overpaying. Sanchez stays if we can re-sign him and he and Jeffers are the catchers next year.

Wow, that’s ugly. And it explains a lot. Maybe Correa is getting back on track with his 2 hits tonight. Also, I’m a little surprised about Gordon. I thought he was doing better than that.

The time to make changes in the starting rotation is coming with Mahle due off the IL in about a week. Mahle, Gray and Ryan are easy picks, everyone else is in play - pick two of Bundy, Archer, Aaron Sanchez, Smeltzer, Louie Varland, SWR for 5, or should we go to a 6 man rotation and pick 3? Who goes into the bullpen? To me, first choice is obvious - Dylan Bundy, The man has a 2.33 ERA in August and has kept the Twins in every game he's started this month. Rocco needs to try giving him a shot at going more than 5 innings but he has been an above average 4/5 rotation guy for the last month. The second choice is less obvious but the guy it shouldn't be is pretty clear - Chris Archer. He had a 11.74 ERA in July and has a 5.24 ERA in August. While he was better earlier, he only pitched 19 innings last year and is coming off a potentially career ending injury. He is running out of gas. Either put him in the bullpen or shut him down. That leaves Smeltzer and Sanchez on the roster, and Louie Varland and SWR down in AAA. Smeltzer was exposed while in the rotation before - 1.50 ERA in May, 4.10 in June, 8.76 in July - and actually looks the part of a long reliever with a 1.80 ERA since coming back up. Varland is tempting but he just got to AAA. SWR still has control issues and also just got there, and there isn't anyone else on the Saints roster who looks like anything close to a MLB starter. Those two could come up on 9/1 and still be under the 45 days so retain their rookie status for 2023. Very tempting to try to catch lightning in a bottle but I just don't think either one is ready. Here's your winner - Aaron Sanchez. Yes, he was bad with the Nats, but his 2 starts with the Twins so far have been a total of 9 innings, 4 runs. He would have gone longer against Houston if Rocco hadn't messed up. His pitches have life and I could see him being very good against weaker teams and holding his own against better ones. If he pitches well Sunday against the Giants I think he's the man for the #5 spot in the rotation. For the bullpen, two changes jump out at me. First, Brad Peacock or Jharel Cotton should come up and replace Megill. Megill has good stuff, but he's been figured out - 1.86 ERA in July, 6.55 in August. Peacock is experienced and can better give us back of the bullpen work. Cotton had a 2.83 ERA when sent down, albeit with a FIP over 5. He's risky, but we could use another multi inning/long man with the shorter starts and he can fill that role. Archer stays and hits the BP or goes on IL. I would also be ok with Moran coming up if Archer goes on the IL. Remember, we get 2 more spots on 9/1 and one of them can be a pitcher so we can add one for a 9 man bullpen. I say add Peacock and Cotton, move Archer to the bullpen, option Megill and option/DFA Pagan. Moran can come up if there's an injury but remember, once he comes up he's hit his limit for the year and can't be sent back down without exposing him to waivers. That would give us a starting rotation as of 9/1 of Mahle, Gray, Ryan, Bundy, Sanchez. The Bullpen is Duran and Lopez as the late inning guys, Jax, Theilbar, Fullmer, Archer (or Moran) and Peacock for innings 6-8, and Smeltzer and Cotton as the multi inning/long men. Smeltzer and Archer are the emergency starters. That's our best pitching staff for September in my view. What say ye?

I have read that Pagan has options but he also has more than 5 years of MLB time. Asa a result, he can refuse an assignment to AAA and become a free agent if the Twins try to option him down. He also is controllable one more year through arbitration. I think these are the two reasons the Twins still hang on - hope that he can be "fixed' so his production matches the talent and fear that he will leave and another team will fix him. That, and the trade we amde to get him and Paddack. Having said that, this strikes me as the classic chasing after sunk costs combined with a fantasy that the Twins can find value where others can't. It didn't work out here; time to move on. Option him, bring up Moran or Sisk. IF he stays in AAA and collects his $2.3m salary maybe he can be fixed. If not, it's a cost of doing business.

To echo what others have said, this is a no-brainer from a business standpoint. Of course he will opt out. The only risk he takes by opting out is that no team, including the Twins, will give him a one-year deal for $35.1 million. There is a small amount of risk but not very much risk given the market for shortstops. I think that the very least he could re-sign a similar deal with the Twins and probably with five or six other teams. There is no rational business reason for him to do anything other than not exercise his player option unless he suffers a really significant injury. The real question is does he want to stay with the Twins long-term. If he does or is at least open to the possibility, this is the off-season for him to try to sign the contract of five years or longer. That's really what we should be talking about, should the Twins give him a 6-8 year deal at $30+ million? I vote yes! I know we have Royce Lewis coming up but there's no reason he couldn't play 3B or LF. I do recognize and appreciate the argument that the same money could and should be used to sign a true #1 starting pitcher. I hear that but the risk is very high in those long-term pitching deals and the Twins have not shown the willingness or the ability to sign those kind of free agent pitchers. I also question whether a true, established #1 starter would come to Minnesota when we just got rid of our highest paid player. Also, I think bringing on Mahle and Gray this year, both of whom I think the Twins can and should re–sign or less than the total of $40 million per year between the two of them, put us in a decent spot with starting pitching when you add in Ryan, Maeda, Ober, and Paddack. Yes, this year is an example of what can happen with injuries to pitchers but that's a risk I'm willing to take. I also think re-signing Correa long-term sends exactly the signal to the market that we want to send. It tells other free agents that were willing to spend for quality, and that we are committed to a long-term winning culture. That gives us a much better shot at getting some free agents, particularly the second tier good but not great players that you need to be a backbone for your team. If I were in charge of the Twins, I would put a competitive 6 or 7 year offer on the table north of $30 million in AAV and see if he can be re-signed.

Thanks for the clarification on Cave. I thought he was out of options. No reason for the DFA then, just option him back to AAA.

Absolutely right. I would add Kepler to that first group.

Larnach might not provide much help but there is hope. He was hitting well before the injury dragged him down and had a good walk rate. It will take some games to knock the rust off but I could see him providing a .260/.325/.425 kind of boost down the stretch. Better than Kepler, better than Celestino, more power than Gordon with the same OPS range. Maybe he and Garlick become a platoon in LF (where Laranch rated highly on defense), Gordon can play CF with a Celestino/Kepler platoon in RF since Buxton may need to primarily DH if he can play at all after last night. If Buxton can come back and play CF, Kepler should be the odd man out to be the 4th OF with Gordon playing every day although I don't trust Baldelli to see it the same way. IF performance is the basis and hitting counts more than defense on a team that is having trouble scoring runs, Gordon is the winner over Kepler. Buxton as a full time DH creates an interesting situation since the Miranda/Arraez/Urshela group only has 1B, 3B, and DH to get them all in the lineup. Somehow injuries seem to take care of these things, particularly for this team. My guess is Buxton goes on the 10 day IL this week, Garlick comes up, Larnach is up next week, Cave goes DFA, Beckham goes DFA when Buxton comes back.