LA Vikes Fan

Agreed. The two players going down at the end of the week are Celestino and Godoy unless Sanchez still can't play,. Then it's Celestino and Sanchez to the injured list. The roster crunches come when Gray is ready to come back and Kirilloff is ready to be elevated. When Gray comes back., either Jax or Stashack goes. When Kirilloff is ready, we have to lose either Larnach back to AAA or DFA Garlick. While I would prefer a DFA of Garlick with Larnach playing most days in LF, Kirilloff at 1B, and Sano as a part time DH and back up 1B, and I think the more likely result is Larnach back to AAA to play in LF every day.

This is great to see. I agree that Kepler was getting shifted to the bench. High hopes that there is a .250-.270 hitter with 20 HR power and a .340 OBP in Kepler if he can hit the ball to LF. Even better if he can find some power to the LCF gap. Then he really is a keeper.

I agree with you there. Kepler is better than the present alternatives, and probably still is even if/when Kirilloff comes back and plays LF. We saw last night what a good glove in the corner OF can do and what it can't when Grossman butchered the play on the ball hit by Sano. Frankly, for all the talk we heard about the glut of corner OF prospects we supposedly have, it looks like we are short in that area at least in the high minors. I just think we need to understand what Kepler is - a good fielding corner OF with a below average corner OF bat. He hits 6 against RH pitching, 7 against lefties (although he's hitting lefties better than righties this year) and plays every day until somebody better comes along. We can win with Kepler playing every day IF we get a consistently good hitting LF or 1B that can hit 4 or 5. Still working on that.

I agree. A "breakout" for Kepler would be for him to hit .250-.260/.330/.460. Not bad, but hardly a middle of the order bat. Still a serviceable piece on a good team as the 3rd best hitting OF and his glove brings real value. He seems like he's make strides and he MIGHT improve to be a solid starter/#6 or #7 hitter in a good lineup. It really seems unlikely he will be anything more that that in his career. In other words, a solid complimentary player but not someone who is a core carrier of the team. By the way, let's stop talking about how Kepler's 103 OPS+ makes him an "above average hitter". It makes him a roughly average hitter when you include everyone that plays, including catchers, shortstops, second baseman, and center fielders - all positions where the glove work is more important than the offense. Kepler is a Corner OF. He needs to hit better to play that spot. I would love to see the average OPS+ for corner OFs. I can't seem to find anything recent on the internet. The only one I found is multiple years old and says that the average OPS for a corner OF is .819, with .756 as "replacement level". Kepler's career OPS is .... .756. Replacement level if one believes these old stats. I'd love to see some updated or better ones. Still, this validates what I at least think Kepler has been - a good fielding OF with a below average, replacement level bat for a corner OF. I hope he adjusts and is better this year, I really do. But let's not pretend he's been more than that in his career.

I understand the author's point and agree with it, but only to a limited extent. We all know what Sano is as a baseball player- a steaky hitter with power who provides negative value on defense. He will carry the team for a couple of weeks at 2 or 3 junctures this season. He also will drag us down and cause us to lose games by missing opportunities to help the team like his brutal at bat in the 2nd last night watching 3 strikes go bay with a men on second and third and no outs. Inexcusably bad at bat. The question is does that provide what you need from a 1B/DH on a good, contending team? The answer is a resounding NO. no advanced metrics can change that answer - he's just not good enough if our goal is to actually contend. Do we have anyone any better? I think Arraez is easily better against RH pitching so at most Sano should be the weak half of a 1B platoon. Kirilloff might be better so he should play every day when and IF he's ready. Bottom line is that Sano should be at most a part time player, trade bait if anyone will even give us a A ball lottery ticket or two for him, and gone after this season.

Great post. 3 thoughts on this. If you were the #1 person using Kepler as a whipping boy, I was #2. I think Kepler is a 4th OF on a good team but after watching the games this weekend I'm starting to think he could be more. He actually tried to hit the ball the other way and was successful a couple of times. I'm beginning to hope that he has finally learned that he has to do that to open up his pull side. Maybe he can be a .260 hitter after all. Combine that with 20-25 HRs and an above average glove and we may have a #5 or #6 hitter that deserves to play every day. Also, Urhela is a player - good defense and decent hitter. He should be playing every day in the #5 or #6 hole. Arraez can play somewhere else, mostly 1B and DH, although we do have a huge hole in LF. On the negative side, I have to agree on Sano. He looks like a RH DH, backup 1B right now. I would put Arraez at 1B so he plays every day against RH pitching, and only play Sano against LH pitching. When and IF Kirilloff is back AND shows he can hit, he can play LF or 1B with Arraez playing the other spot, and Sano an occasional 1B and part-time DH. Sano reminds me of the bench scorer/ no D guy on an NBA team. You put him in and tell let him hoist up a couple right away. If they go in, he plays. If he misses, you pull him and he sits the rest of the game because if he isn't scoring he has a negative value. With Sano, you give him a a game's worth of ABs. If he hits it hard, he plays. If he strike outs or hit pop ups, he sits for a few games and you give him another shot hoping to catch that hot streak. He helps when he's hot, he drags us down when he's not.

I think this is where we disagree. I agree that Arraez, Correa, Polanco , and Buxton are quality MLB hitters. I just don't see any of them well suited to a run producing spot like #4 or #5 and that's assuming that Polanco can be the #3 hole hitter. Really, Correa and Polanco are pretty similar hitters, both around .265-.280/ .325-.340/ .475-.520 with Correa more in the .850 plus OPS range and Polanco more like .800. Interestingly, Correa has really been a boom or bust a guy with an OPS either at .850 or higher (2019 and 2021) or in the low to mid .700s (2018 and 2020). A lot of his value is as the best defensive shortstop in baseball, not as a hitter. Still, even with Correa and Polanco holding down the #2 and #3 spots - a bit of a stretch for Polanco - we lack the quality leadoff hitter and putting Arraez or Urshela in the #4 and #5 spots is really a stretch for them. They are both better suited to hitting #6 or in Arraez' case, as a possible leadoff hitter but there he's too damn slow. Buxton can either leadoff or hit #4, but he's really not suited for either spot. He also should probably be hitting #2. Really, what this team lacks is the traditional middle of the order bopper will hits for a high average with some power or hits 260-.275 with 30+ homerun power. It's possible that Buxton could develop into that guy, but you hate to waste his speed by putting him in the middle of the order behind a slow guy like Arraez. The rest of the group is just a bunch of mismatched pieces. That's why we struggle to score runs. Maybe the answer is to try something different. Let's put Nick Gordon in the leadoff spot, followed by Correa, Polanco and Buxton. Urshela and Arraez can hit #5 and #6 in some order depending on whether a RH or LH starts, and the bottom three can be some combination of Kepler, Larnach, Sano, and whoever is catching that day. That still leaves is a major black hole at the bottom of the order, although Sanchez can profile is a good #7 hitter, but at least we have a chance to score some runs through the top six spots in the order. We'll have to score those runs by guys getting lots of singles and doubles and situational hitting with some but not a lot of power. I just think that's who this team is right now. we aren't going to bash our way to the top.

I agree with some of this, but not all. Here's where we disagree. I think Urshela is actually a pretty good hitter. Jeffers is not. I don't think that Kepler is a wild card all - I think we know what he is. He's a .220 - .230 hitter with a good glove and some pop. He is fine as the third or fourth OF on a good team. He is NOT good enough to hit in the middle of the lineup or turn the team around offensively. Same with Sano. He's a streaky hitter who will give us 25+ homeruns, hit between .210 and .235, and hurt us on defense. He is a mediocre DH. Having Garver and Donaldson might help a little, but you're right, missing them isn't the problem. I think the problem here is simple. We counted on Kirilloff, Kepler and Sano to all be middle of the order hitters in order to make this lineup click. History tells us that Kepler and Sano are not that kind of hitter and it's become even more obvious with Cruz no longer on the team to carry the middle of the order. There is no reason to expect any significant improving change from either Kepler or Sano. I hope I am wrong but they may be at the point in their careers where the change is likely to be negative, not positive. Kirilloff is at this point a complete wild card because he hasn't now been healthy for almost a year and has never proven himself at the MLB level. This team lacks a middle of the order hitter outside of maybe Polanco and that's why we can't score any runs. Guys, I think we've seen enough to know that it's time for Plan B for this season. We are not going to be able to bash other teams with slow footed power hitters. Ours are not good enough and MLB is now putting the baseballs in humidors so they don't carry as far. We need to inject speed and athleticism into the lineup. To me, that means much more playing time for Gordon in particular, and a look at AAA to see who can help us down there – maybe Miranda, Contreras, and even Martin from AA. We need to make adjustments on the fly and we need to do it soon or this season is going to be another "development year" where the team's idea of development is to continue to trot out the same guys and somehow hope they get better. Let's not do that again.

It looks like many of us agreed that the big problem is the lineup is at least three bats short of being good enough to really compete. I am a little perplexed on why people assume Urshela will be gone soon. He isn't even arbitration eligible until 2023 and isn't a free agent until 2024. I think he's here for the next two years playing third base or maybe even shortstop once Correa is gone unless Lewis is ready to take over. In any event, he's one of the 45 major league caliber bats we have and the last thing we need to do is get rid of him. We can find a place for Miranda at 1B or even as the DH. I know it is early, but I really do think it's time for us to try to move on from at least Sano and maybe also move Kepler to a 4th OF role. Let's get consistent at bats for Gordon, Larnach and Arraez (the latter against LH pitching to see if he improves), at the LF, DH and 1B spots for the next two weeks. Sano can go to part time bench bat, occasional 1B or 3B. If one or more of them don't show enough, time for Miranda, Contreras, Kirilloff if he's healthy and maybe Martin to be given the opportunity using those same positions. I would mention Lewis but I think it makes the most sense to leave him at shortstop in AAA so that he can be plugged in as the major link shortstop either after a midseason trade this year of Correa or when Correa opts out at the end of the season. I'm tired of being betwixt and between all the time, not good enough to really contend but still playing the same guys over and over who are the reason we're not good enough to really contend. Maybe playing the young guys brings us down and not up but we need to see how they fare when given a real opportunity. Besides, it frankly can't get much worse than this at the plate.

Love the optimism but I don't think it's warranted. Yes, I expect Correa and Polanco to come around and produce in line with their career norms. I'm also optimistic about Buxton and Urshela, and I think Arraez is a good singles hitter, with no power or speed. Sanchez isn't horrible for a catcher. The problem is that's it. Kepler is who he is - a .220-.230 hitter with a good glove and occasional power. Sano is a streaky mediocrity with no glove, and Laranch isn't much yet. Gordon is the best hitting OF we have right now. Kirilloff might hwlp but he might be hurt all year. This team is not a good offensive team with this lineup. W have no 4 or 5 hitter - Urshela, Kepler and Sano should be hitting 6,7,8 and then where do hit the C, the DH or the LF? We are offensively challenged in the 3 lineup positions where the bat is more important than the glove - 1B, LF, and DH. I would add RF in that statement. Could this team be around the middle of the pack offensively? Sure, but it isn't likely without a trade or a call up that catches fire. More likely, this is a bottom third offense on a team that will go as far as the pitching can carry it. And that ain't going to be too far.

It looks like the worm is turning in baseball away from the power laden lineups of the past living or dying with the home run to more old timey situational baseball. that means we need more athletes and fewer boom or bust HR guys. Martin may be that kind of athletic guy. Let's at least give him a shot at AAA to see. No reason to be paying Cave every day there, he's not going to help the big club. Put Martin in LF in AAA and see what he can do. If he succeeds, we've increased our options at the MLB level. If he fails. he goes back to AA and we haven't lost anything since Cave is not in the Twins future.

I like the premise that these 3 guys are close. The question is - how close? We have some real holes in our lineup now. I don't expect that they're going to be calling these three guys up in the next month but I do think they are going to be opportunities by Midsummer. There really is an opportunity for right-handed hitting outfielder now since I don't think any of us believe that Garlick is even much of a short term stopgap, much less any sort of long-term solution. The early returns on Larnach aren't very good no matter how we try to dress up his poor performance based on his exit velocity and barrel rates. The bottom line is he was not good last year after a hot start and has not been good this year. Kirilloff is a complete wildcard given his wrist and what appeared to be associated issues that may be more psychological than physical, but still as real. This season is rapidly circling the drain. Can we turn it around over the next month? Absolutely. Is that likely given what we've seen to date? No. I'm wondering if maybe it wouldn't make sense to give either Maranda or Martin some run in the outfield or at 1B at the major-league level starting fairly soon. I think we have to keep Lewis playing shortstop because he is the one heir apparent once Correa leaves either through a midseason trade, the more likely route the way things are going, or at the end of the year. I disagree with the previous poster, I think we have seen enough to know that Sano and Kepler are not the answer. They're not hitting this year, they didn't hit last year, and they didn't hit the year before. I would be happy to bench or trade either one of them to make room if these guys are ready for their shot.

Trading Rogers for Paddack and Pagan isn't the problem. The rotation isn't the problem. Pagan has been fine. We have two problems. The bullpen is 1-2 arms short. The FO should have been more proactive and gotten us at least 1 more bullpen arm. It wasn't the most unreasonable strategy not getting a free agent arm for the bullpen but it hasn't worked and really failed when Alcala went down, and then Duffy and Theilbar became ineffective. The real problem is the offense. We have 4, maybe 5 MLB starting caliber hitters in Arraez, Buxton, Correa, Polanco and I'm counting Urshela. When 1 or 2 of them aren't hitting - Correa and Polanco - we really have less than half of a starting caliber MLB lineup. I'd frankly be in favor of trading from our supposed surplus - young pitching - to get a young outfielder. I don't have a lot of confidence that Larnach or Kirilloff will be that guy this year or even next. We have nothing on the farm unless Contreras or Miranda is ready and it doesn't look like it so far. IF we get lucky and one or more of those 4 are ready now, we have plenty of spots to fit them in the lineup between RF (Kepler is a 4th OF on a good team), 1B (Sano isn't worth his contract and may be gone next year), and DH (we got nobody). We probably can't do anything trade wise until closer to the deadline although there may be opportunities when everyone has to re-set their rosters on May 1. Bottom line is that the season is getting away from us because we can't hit or score runs, not because of the bullpen. I think the big issue here in July will be how good a return we can get when we trade Correa not who can we get for a stretch run. Depressing.

I agree. It would be great to try a couple of other relievers now while the rosters are still 28 players. I know that creates 40 man issues but I would be fine with another DFA of Garlick and possibly Stashak if necessary to create 40 man room. I would like to see them try Smeltzer, Minaya and/or Cano now while we can give them a roughly 2 week run and see if they can help us now. We can also send Winder down to AAA to start every 5th day to create roster room, although that doesn't solve any 40 man roster issues

I agree that Duffy needs to move to lower leverage spots, but i don't think its fair to say that the Rogers trade is the reason we are having bullpen issues. We got Pagan back as part of the Rogers trade and he has been good. We wouldn't have pitched Rogers in the 6th last night either. We need to cycle more guys through the bullpen and give the effective relievers the higher leverage innings. Right now, that means Pagan, Coulombe, Duran, and Smith in the higher leverage situations. That isn't enough. We're hamstrung carrying at least 4 relievers who aren't any help right now - Stashak, Thielbar. Jax and Duffy. Time to make a change or two, get Smeltzer and maybe Cano up and try them. I would lose Jax and Stashak now and try those two, and also move Theilbar and Duffy to mop up duty until they either "find themselves" or go on May 1.

I hope you’re right but I don't see anyone likely to improve much other than Correa and Polanco. We went into this year relying on Improvements from Kirilofff, Sano, Kepler, and Jeffers. Looking back on it, that wasn’t very realistic outside of Kirilloff. Kepler hasn't ever really hit other than in 2019, Sano the same, and Jeffers is still developing. I hope you’re right but I don't think this team has a cavalry to ride in.

Guys, this offense is only going to go as far as Buxton, Polanco and Correa take it. Arraez can help some as a secondary piece, and Urshela and Sanchez can be tertiary pieces. There is no one else. Sano and Kepler are who they are - a streaky, unreliable hitter who can't field (Sano), and a below average hitter at an offensive position who has an above average glove (Kepler). They are not going to be the pieces we need to improve the offense. And if Rocco hits Kepler 4th again? Fireable offense. Our only real hope is that 2 ne players emerge to lengthen the lineup. Maybe Larnach can be one of those guys. Frankly, maybe Lewis, Contreras or Miranda can come up and be one of those guys. Does the bullpen need help around the edges? Absolutely, but it's not the biggest problem. The lineup is the biggest problem and we do not have the players on the roster to fix that problem. We need new guys. Right now it looks to me like we are trading Correa at the deadline (if he can get going), bringing up Lewis to play SS, and searching for starting caliber MLB OFs for the rest of the season. Disappointing but probably predictable. I think I let getting Correa go to my head. 78-84.

The one ray of hope is that neither Correa or Polanco is hitting at all so there may be some offense that going to come around. Other than that, this is your team at the plate team folks. The starting pitching has actually been better than expected, and the bullpen has either been quite effective or a complete meltdown with nothing in between. The big disappointment is the offense and the only real hope for it to improve is Correa and Polanco hitting like the All-Stars they are. The only other hope is that 2 or 3 of Sano, Larnach, Kepler, Jeffers, or Gordon becomes a quality hitter. I'm not liking the odds on any of them breaking out and really not liking the odds on 2 or 3 of them breaking out. This could get ugly,

Oh my God, I remember once spending what seemed like eternity in a theater watching a second rate performance of Waiting for Godot. Excruciating, and I'm not sure better acting we have improved things. Perhaps a car chase or a dance number might've made for a more interesting evening, but even that might not have helped. Still, much more entertaining than watching "My Dinner With Andre". Perhaps "My Dinner With Rocco" would be better. It's a tough call. Very funny adaptation. I liked the Shakespeare as well. Very literary group.

i agree on the walks. It was good to see the Twins take much more high quality at bats. They are going to have to do that to be successful offensively. This team just doesn't have the talent in the lineup to mash opponents, and they now have even less with Buxton and Kirilloff out. They are going to have to work counts, get walks, and hit situationally to score runs. That hasn't been a trademark of this team the last few years. I hope they can do that.

Hopefully Garlick won't spend much time in the field or the lineup, he is not good out there. The harder call is Arraez. We need his bat now even more than before with Buxton out but he is an adventure at 3rd. Bad inning against the Dodgers and ole'd another ball he should have played. Solution? Hmmm, where to play a hitter who isn't good with the glove..... what's open... Wait, isn't left field open? PLAY ARRAEZ IN LF! Play Urshela every day at 3B, DFA Garlick or option Celestino or Larnach and bring up Miranda to play some at 3B and some at 2B. Improves the batting order and gets Arraez away from 3B. Sano is better there than he is. Wait, Arraez to 1B and Sano to 3B? Hmmmmm.....

I agree that it's way too early to judge the pitching. I'm actually optimistic about that group. I don't think its too early to judge the lineup though based on their track record. We were all planning on Kirilloff to be the number 4 or 5 hitter and with him gone and unlikely now to be that guy this year we kind of know what we have. Three good to elite hitters - Correa, Polanco and Buxton (maybe, jury is still out), one pretty good complimentary hitter with no power in Arraez, one maybe at that same level with a little more power in Urshela, a catching tandem that's decent for catchers with some power and lots of SOs, and a major black hole in RF, 1B, and LF - spots where you should have 3 good hitters not a streaky high SO guy, a lousy hitter and young, unproven guys with spotty track records. Add to that we seem to have very few position players in the minors screaming to be brought up. Hard to optimistic about the future of that lineup. Looks like the only way to get a better lineup is to do the one thing we probably shouldn't do - trade young pitching. I think we're stuck with this group and I don't see them as anything more than a middle of the pack offense and probably a little less than that. The pitching is better but not good enough to overcome that.

Following the last two games in an office in LA surrounded by Dodger fans too polite to say the truth - the Twins are nowhere hear the Dodgers league.

Ah, how one day and one injury changes things. This lineup is about 4 bats long, 5 against RH pitching because you can add Arraez. Kirilloff was supposed to be a middle of the order bat. Gone, and might be for awhile. Sano is off to his usual torrid start. Won't be any better than last year and a better second half doesn't help a team out of contention by the All Star Break. Kepler is who he is - a lousy hitter. The Catching position actually could be mediocre at the plate and that's the best spot in the back half of the lineup. The pitching? Not that bad. Could be middle of the pack. Defense? Not good so far. Overall? Mediocre team. Let's use this year to develop some more guys.

Hard to see a good reason to go get Upton. Frankly, Garlick looks like a better bat at this point. If we think we can contend, put Arraez out there, live with his poor defense and hope he knees allow him to play 120 games. Maybe pair him with Garlick. If this is really more of a rebuilding/development season, put Gordon out there some and Larnach some and see what happens. I lean to the latter because I think these first 6 games have sobered me up to see how many holes this team has. The pitching may be average - an improvement but not good enough - but the lineup is least two hitters too short to really contend. I hate to say it, but I think we have time. Persistent soreness that affects one's swing in an already surgically repair wrist doesn't sound like a 10 day IL stint to me. Sounds more like at least a month and that's if they can figure out what's wrong.