LA Vikes Fan

Interesting article, but I don't think that there's a binary choice here of Rooker or Gralick. Frankly, I don't either one of them will make the MLB team and I think that's the right answer. By the time you have the 8 starters in the field plus Arraez, Celestino or another 4th OF, Jeffers as the 2nd catcher and 13 pitchers, there's only 2 spots left. I expect Gordon to get one of them - he showed more this year than Larnach or Rooker. I think that last spot on the roster comes down to Mranda (my choice), Refsnyder, Larnach or Rooker (Kirilloff is the LF and I think Astudillo and Cave are gone). I think Rooker finishes no higher than 3rd in that pecking order and I would say 4th. The only way he stays is if we trade Kepler or Sano with high upside MiLB players for starting pitching in the off season. Then, Rooker as a 5th OF/backup 1B/ part time DH might work but even then I'm dubious with the other 3 all better choices.

Great post. The real problem is that the pitching and lineup are not in sync on the development curve. The lineup is close to being ready to compete and might be if Buxton plays 140 games. The pitching, both ends but particularly the rotation, is not. By the time the presently in house pitching is ready (if ever, always a crapshoot), the lineup will be too old or too expensive. So, which way do we go? I say we compete, mostly because I think we have enough on the farm to make a decent trade or two. On the 6 questions: (1) Lewis or Palacios may be the long term solution so this next year we sign a stop gap. Freddy Galvis or Iglesias make sense. Save the $$$ for pitching. (2) 2 new starters at a minimum, 3 if re-signing Pineda counts as "new". Sign one premium free agent like Stroman, Rondon or Jon Gray to a 3-5 year deal. Stay away from older types like Verlander or Greinke. Stay far, far away from not quite there types like Alex Cobb or Danny Duffy. That spot goes to Pineda. Trade for one more starter - Alcantara or Rogers from Miami, Zach Gallen, someone like that and don't be afraid to part with real non-pitching assets like Martin or Miranda in combo with Kepler or Sano to get a good, young controllable starter. Re-sign Pineda. Rotation goes Stroman, Alcantara, Pineda, Ober, Ryan. Don't worry about the other prospects getting an MLB chance in 2022; there will be plenty of IL time, etc. available for the others like Balazovic, Winder, Strotman, etc. to get a chance to show what they can do at the MLB level. (3) Go to arbitration with Rogers and pay him. If he appears healthy try to negotiate a 2-3 year deal by the AS break and if you can't, keep him if you're in contention, trade him if you aren't. If he isn't able to go physically, eat the arb salary with a smile - it was worth the shot. (4) Don't play reliever roulette - keep the 6 guys mentioned, use guys like Jax or a FA to fill out the pen. Keep Colome but only if Rocco promises he'll use a "closer by situation" approach, not a "Colome every time" approach. (5) The DH is for rotation. Donaldson plays 50/50 DH and 3B, same for Arraez. When one sits, 4th Of (Celestino), or backup IF like Gordon or Miranda DHs. Do NOT sign a full time DH unless you trade Donaldson. You can't have both. (6) SIGN BUXTON. He is one of the 2 keys to contention along with the rotation. Almost as importantly, signing him shows the team and the fan base that you're serious about winning. Will we need to over pay/take risk? Yup. He's worth it. The twins cannot win consistently, or even every now and then, without taking significant risk. He is worth that risk.

I agree on Celestino. Assuming no trades of outfielders, I think Celestino profiles nicely as the 4th OF in 2022 playing in a platoon in RF with Kepler and being Buxton's primary backup. Let's get him 250-300 plus ABs next year and I think he could be starter material by 2023.

Interesting idea. I wonder if a combination of Garver and Kepler would be enough to interest Miami in trading someone like Sandy Alcantra, or more likely Pablo Lopez, Sixto Sanchez or Trevor Rogers? There would undoubtedly need to be some adjusting Minor Leaguers included depending on the target but I think this is a combination worth exploring. BTW, I'd also be willing to swap out Jeffers for Garver or add Sano or swap him out for Kepler to get the best return. I also agree that we need to get a veteran LH backup catcher to pair with which ever catcher is left if we make a trade like this. Rotvedt isn't MLB ready at the plate yet. He needs at least another year at the AAA level and can be the emergency 3rd catcher to call up in case of injury. .

Agreed. This is why it's so hard to evaluate Rocco.

I think the C/C- is justified based on what Baldelli did outside of the player issues he had to deal with by bad FA signings. He seems to have a hard time shifting when things don't go according to plan. This lack of flexibility is the opposite of what a manager should do; the manager needs to adjust to the talent and performance, not the other way around (same problem with Zimmer). Two examples: (1) Colome showed early that he wasn't ready to be the closer. Baldelli said it was closer by committee and would use matchups and performance. Still, he decided to ride Colome as a closer after he didn't perform and never went to closer by committee. Colome in April and May is one of the main reasons this season went off the rails but Baldelli didn't see it happening and adjust. He also seems to hew to that hackneyed notion that relief pitchers need to "know their roles" and have consistent roles. Horse feathers. Good relief pitchers can adjust to different situations. If ours can't, they aren't good. Bad, very bad at adjusting to the facts on the ground this year. (2) The season was over by May 30, really over by June 30. After that, it was time to play the younger guys and see what we had for next year. He did some of that, but.... Why Simmons at SS all season? Why not try Polanco and Gordon on an every day basis? Why Colome as the closer again in August and September? Why not Alcala? Why even play Cave or Astudillo (or for that matter Refsnyder or Kepler even)? At least the first 2 of those 4 will not be with the Twins in 2022. His primary goal post 6/15 or so should have been to evaluate guys for next year. Instead, he seemed fixed in his ways and overly focused on short term wins over longer term development. As a result, we aren't as prepared for the off season as we could be. I think Baldelli has the possibility of being a good MLB manager. By that, I mean one who can adjust on the fly and change philosophies to match the talent he's given, all while keeping everyone loose and performing. He did not do the first part of that this year. Still, he seems to have both the ear and respect of the team and he did keep them competing in a lost season. Hopefully he's learned from his mistakes and can be more flexible going forward. If he can't, he needs to be replaced.

Extremely well said, sir. Especially the part about giving Rocco an experienced bench coach. Well, all of it well said.

Excellent point. I didn't realize he had 2 options remaining. Still a tough call on the 40 man, but does increase his value both to the Twins and to other teams after they stash him for a year as a Rule 5 draftee. I still wouldn't keep him on the 40 man over a youngish pitcher but I would keep him over a 30+ year old reliever with no clear path to the 26 man roster like Kyle Barraclaugh, Nick Vincent and Luke Farrell. His lack of defensive ability really limits his utility - he's got to be a .850 plus OPS guy to really be usable on a contending team. Still, it wouldn't kill me to have him as the 39th or 40th man so we can give him one more try.

I really think the main difference between us is that I say sign two free agent starters and you’re using some of that money to sign relief, and then trading for that second starter. I think either approach works well. The key is getting two guys to handle rotation. I don’t think our needs in relief are as great. I think we may have actually found a decent group in the second half. If we go to the trade route, Miami seems illogical partner. I live in LA, and I seriously doubt if the Dodgers will trade pitching so I don’t think either they or the Padres are likely to trade anyone any good. My only other disagreement is I think we would be buying high on Robbie Ray if we signed him and I don’t think he is anywhere near as good as the other guys you mentioned. But Hey, I would be happy if your plan came to fruition.

That is the question. Who gets the 4-5 year $20-$25 million a year contract? If you aren’t willing to pay that, you cannot expect to get a tier 1 or even a tier 2 starter. That is why we no longer have Berrios. We didn’t offer that kind of money and he will get there or more when he becomes a free agent. And that’s for a tier 2 starter like Berrios. I would go high twice, on short term, one long-term. For the short term, I would offer Verlander and Greinke each 20 to 25m a year on a 2 year deal given their age. That maybe a tough sell because they are going to want to go to a team they see is being contenders in their last two years. Verlander Is a little younger so he may want and get more years. Greinke is my target - Older guy, doesn’t like the limelight. If that doesn’t work you drop the money and pivot to Cory Kluber or Robbie Ray. Then, you sign a younger younger pitcher to a four or five year $20-$25 million a year deal. Best choices are Marcus Stroman and Carlos Rondon. Push hard to get one of them. Those two guys head the rotation, Pineda comes back at somewhere between 8 and $10 million a year for a couple of years, and Ober and Ryan fill out the rotation. There will be plenty of opportunities in 2022 for other guys to get a shot do the injury and there isn’t anybody else in the system that is shown they are worthy of a full year shot at this point. How do I pay for this? That is where all of the off-season money goes. We sign a stopgap glove first shortstop like Iglesias or Galvis or even Simmons to a $5 or less million deal, and we run with the bullpen and lineup we have. Yes, that means picking up Colome’s option and also signing Rogers to a three-year $20-$25 million backloaded deal. It’s back loaded so that Rogers salary jumps when the older starter comes off the books. Overall, this commits another roughly $50-70 million a year to the payroll, which should put us between $140-160 million If my memory is right on what’s committed to next year, etc. If necessary, we trade Kepler and/or Sano as part of a package for young pitching to reduce payroll so we can spend the money on major-league pitching. I think this approach makes us competitive next year without putting an unrealistic strain on payroll. It also gives us options as guys develop over the next two or three years.

It’s very hard to see Rooker as having any long term place on the Twins for all the reasons stated. He also won’t have any trade value until after the 40 man is announced for the Rule 5 draft. Why would any team trade for him when there’s at least a decent chance that he would be protected? I think the smart move is to leave him on the 40 man roster and then try to trade him maybe as a sweetener in a package deal. If there isn’t a reasonable deal out there, he does have an option left so we can give it one more yearBut that’s probably just delaying the inevitable. All this assumes there’s room for him on the 40 man without having to expose a decent pitching prospect. It’s a choice between him and any kind of pitcher with any kind of upside, Rooker should go.

For those of us not as well versed as others, who needs to be added to the 40 man roster after the season that isn't on the 40 man roster now? Is there a site where this information is available?

It's hard to see Thorpe, Smeltzer or Barnes as MLB starting pitchers. Smeltzer might offer some Long relief of LH Bullpen value, but again it seems like that could be replaced with pitchers released from other Organizations or Rule 5 pickups. I owuld not put any of those 3 on the 40 man roster unless we have open spots and it seems unlikely that they will be selected in the Rule 5 draft. We should be ale to keep Barnes and Smeltzer in the organization with Minor League contracts with an invitation to Spring training and have them in AAA to start the season. No big deal if one of them is lost. They will get another chance next year with the twins due to the injury or ineffectiveness of others. Jax and Stashack are tougher calls because I could see one of them him being drafted in the Rule 5 Draft by a poor team. I would leave them both on the 40 man. Gant may be our 5th starter next year and, if he isn't, he will be in the Twins bullpen or at the top of the AAA rotation. He stays on the 40 man. Same analysis for Dobnak. Unfortunately, theis means the RH pitchers stay and the LH pitchers go. Not good. Still, their performance seems to compel this result.

Colome is a tough call because since May he's actually been a pretty good reliver. We need pretty good relievers because the starters are rarely going to go more than 5-6 innings next year unless we bring in a FA that can lead the staff. It's more likely that we'll have a guy like Greinke, then Pineda, than three of the Ober/Ryan/Dobnak/Jax/Barnes/Winder/(fill in more names here) crowd. I agree with the poster who said a mid market team can make it work with 5-6 inning starters with a quality bullpen. Colome could be part of a quality bullpen, but not as a traditional closer. The problem is that Baldelli insists on making Colome a traditional style closer. This season has taught us that he is not good at that role at this point in his career. By the way, neither is Taylor Rogers. In order to make this work, we need to either get a free agent "traditional" closer who effectively gets the ball in every save situation, or we need to play matchups and have 3 or 4 guys can pitch in the 8th and 9th inning depending on the opponent and matchups. Baldelli said that shifting/flexibility was what he was going to do, and then he frankly acts like Ron Gardenhire by designating a closer and going to him every time. He exacerbated his mistake by having the wrong guy designated as the closer. If I would point to one mistake that Baldelli has consistently made this year that makes me question whether he can be an effective major league manager, it's his bullpen management. It has been poor to say the least. He has been inflexible and beholden to the idea that the relievers need to have "set roles" to be effective. This may simply be the problem with having a former player from a different era manage. If we have relievers that have to have a set goal to be effective we need to get different relievers because that is not the way to win modern baseball games. So, bottom line, happy to keep Colome on the team if he is an interchangeable part rather than a set traditional closer. I question whether Baldelli can actually make that transition. The Front Office may need to take that option away from him. I hope he is self curious and self reflective and really studies what he did this year that didn't work. If he does, he should conclude that his set role bullpen management was a mistake and commit to greater flexibility. if he does that, Colome may have an effective role on this team.

Good analysis. This article points out something we all kind of know and supports it with real data. Kepler is an above average fielding corner outfielder with a well below average bat. I don't think moving him to centerfield really helps a lot because tat minimizes his one asset, an above average glove, because he would be an average at best centerfielder. The problem is he just can't hit and for some reason he is unwilling to do anything other than pull the ball on regular basis. He's got to be the easiest guy in the American League to shift against. With these flaws, I think it's unlikely that we would be able to trade him for much pitching unless we included an upside prospect with him in a package. Maybe somebody who is not an elite or even strong prospect but projects to be a possible mid to back rotation starter or solid bullpen piece regarding whom there is still some doubt. That might be someone like Winder or Strotman or, if we are willing to take more risk on the return side, maybe someone like Jax or Barnes. I will say that if I'm right on the possible return, Kepler probably has more value to the Twins than he does to anybody else. We are probably still a year away from having a capable replacement given the somewhat gaping hole we presently have in left field. Even if Kirilloff becomes our regular leftfielder and continues his development as a solid or better than that hitter, it's not like we have another outfielder banging on the door to take Kepler's place in 2022. Larnach wasn't quite ready when he came up this year and neither is Celestino or Rooker. I think the best thing for Kepler is to continue to work with him on learning to hit the ball to left field while at the same time effectively platooning him with who we think is our best right-handed hitting outfield prospect to give that player a chance to develop. In my view, that's probably Celestino given how well he hit at AAA when he went back down. We use the 1st half to two thirds of 2022 to see if the younger player can develop and/or if Kepler and finally gets a better approach at the plate and each of them and effectively also functions as the backup centerfielder. I just don't think trading him makes sense because of the low likely return and I do think the Twins highest priority in the off-season is to re-sign Buxton

I agree on the SS position. I just don't see them trusting Polanco or Gordon, nor should they. I would expect them to sign someone like Freddy Galvis or Jose Iglesias although the latter just had kind of a brutal year in the field for the Angels. How about Sano as a bounce back candidate? He's had a strong second half but he was so bad the first half that he was almost unplayable. I would consider a .240 avg., 35 HRs and a 30% or less strikeout rate a great improvement. That may be more of an improvement than a bounce back though. The other bounce back candidate is Tyler Duffy. Again, better in the second half but not good in the first. I would love to se him show up in shape and have a sub 3.00 ERA year but having two good halves instead of just one.

I think in evaluating the 40 man roster decisions last winter we have to bear in mind that the Twins were expecting to be contenders. Window was wide open as they say, until it turned out to be totally shut. Either way, last winter the Front Office seemed to prioritize players who would be able to contribute right away, like Devin Smeltzer, over the players they saw as being a couple of years away, like Tyler Wells and Baddoo. It’s the same reason we have so many AAAA players at Saint Paul, we were looking for guys who could come up for a few games and potentially contribute rather than guys to develop because we were in the contention window. Well, that evaluation turned out to be wrong. Now, we have to make the same evaluation again. Is this team going to contend in 2022 we should be playing for the long haul? I think it goes without saying that we should be playing for the long-haul given the state of our pitching staff. To me, that means he made 40 man decisions based upon long-term prospects without considering the short term. Guys like Jake Cave, Astudillo, Lewis Thorpe, Devin Smeltzer, Luke Farrell, Nick Vincent, etc. are not protected so that you can keep the guys you consider to be the better long term prospects. Next year is more of a development year where who knows, maybe we get lucky and contend, not a year we expect to contend. Hopefully the Front Office sees it the same way and makes 40 man decisions accordingly.

Couldn't have said it better, Big Dog. Now is the time.

Abolsutely. At worst, we find out that Gordon can't be an everyday SS but he gets some experience at the MLB level playing the position so he can play their on a utility basis if necessary next year. Who knows, maybe we will get lucky and he actually has a chance to play there on a regular basis. If he can, we do not have to to spend money to bring in a free agent SS and we can use that money on pitching. Probably not, but it sure as heck doesn't hurt to try him out now. It's kind of hard to care if we go 10 – 6 for the last 16 games or 6 – 10.

How to spell the right term for a guy like Jax whos is consistently excellent the first time through the order, gets hit hard the second time, and gets absolutely shelled the third time? R-E-L-I-E-F PITCHER . I think Jax has some talent but I also think we've seen enough to know that he isn't a top 5 starter on a winning team. I think the issue is whether he provides more value as the 7th or 8th starter awaiting the call from AAA or whether he could be an effective reliever in a MLB Bullpen. I would love to give him a try in the bullpen this year but with all of the injuries I don't know that we have anyone to take his place if we give him a shot in relief. I'm glad Gordon played SS last night and I think we should keep doing it. I didn't see the game but we need to know if he can hold down that position. If he can't, he's a utility player fighting for the 25th or 26th spot on the 2022 Twins and we go out and get a FA SS in the off season. If he can, then we spend our SS money on pitching. One game isn't enough to know. I'd like to see him start at SS for at least 12 of the last 16 games so we can find out if he's a possible answer.

Interesting idea for which you should be congratulated, but I come out as a "No' because I don't see Torres glove work as good enough for a team with a very young starting pitching staff. Freddy Galvis is a better choice. Juan Igelsias also MIGHT be if his work for the Angels this year is an aberration and he rebounds to be the better SS that he has been in the past. Having said that, the idea of trading Kepler for a shortstop and/or pitching help is a good one but I think you guys are smoking crack as to Kepler's value. If we are being generous, Kepler is a good fielding, below average hitting corner outfielder (waaaaay below average in 2021) with occasional power who can play a decent but not great center field in a pinch for a couple of weeks. In other words, he is a good, solid 4th outfielder on a contending team. If we look at his history, this is all he has ever been other than in 2019 and it is becoming more and more clear that his performance in 2019 was an outlier probably assisted by the juice balls used that year. He is not going to be good enough to get a controllable starting pitcher even as the lead player in a package. He is the 2nd or 3rd player in that package. We are going to have to trade somebody better from the farm system, like a young pitcher, to get that controllable starter. Kepler is nowhere near enough.

I love this idea. I may do the same. I'm already thinking of betting on Arizona Sunday in their game with the Vikings for the same reason,

I agree but was he throwing 91-92 with the Twins? He looked very hittable and frankly, a long way from being able to contribute to a MLB team. He looked very overmatched when he was up before. It would be great if Barnes could help next year. So far it looks like Ober and Ryan (I know, SSS) can really help us next year in the rotation absent injury. We need at least one more internal pitcher and Jax does not look like the answer to that question. Maybe Gant, but his track record as a starter in St. Louis does not inspire confidence. He looks more like a decent reliever.

I agree and Kepler. He is a 4th OF or a left-handed half of a platoon With a younger player breaking in. He does provide defensive value so he’s worth having, but not starting every day, and definitely not batting in one of the first six spots in the order. I think he plays because we don’t really have anybody else given the struggles of Rooker and Larnach Both at the plate and in the field. I would frankly like them to bring up Miranda and give him a shot in the outfield. He has played there some in AAA. The other guy is Mark Contreras, but he is another left-handed hitter. The issue is we just don’t have anyone to replace him right now. We should definitely be looking for an upgrade in the off-season.

Guys, I think you're deluding yourselves on Jax. He doesn’t look like a MLB starter. No out pitch, not enough velocity or command. On the other hand, I could see him as a successful reliever, even a high leverage guy. That’s where he belongs.