LA Vikes Fan

Amen, brother. We have to develop our own number one starter. It’s difficult to find one in a trade and we simply aren’t going to be able to/willing to pay the prices for a free agent at that level. The only way you develop a number one starter is to get them on the mound and let them pitch. We learned this year that Ober has a real chance to be a mid rotation guy or better, that Jax isn’t ready and may be a better relief pitcher than starter, and that Charlie Barnes probably doesn’t have enough stuff to make it in the majors. We found that out by pitching them and giving them a chance to succeed or fail. We need to keep doing that for guys like Ryan, Winder, Strotman, Blaze, etc. 2022 is the perfect year to do that in the rotation and, frankly, at a few positions in the field.I would say we went one for three this year on starters, with Ryan still a question mark Since he just got here. And I think that Jax could actually be a quality relief pitcher at the major-league level. That’s about as good as you can expect to do. Let’s get these guys on the mound and see what they have.

I agree on Kepler and Sano. I think we need to recognize what other teams will see them as being. Kepler is a below average hitting, good defensive corner outfielder who can also play centerfield. Perfect 4th outfielder for a good team like the Yankees or Oakland, not a starter. Sano is a boom or bust power hitter with no defensive position that he can competently play. In other words, a DH that hits sixth in the lineup. Those guys, even packaged together, are not going to get us a young controllable starter. They might get us a young shortstop, young relief pitching, or solid prospects. In both cases, I think that’s a trade worth making. Kirilloff replaces Sano, Larnach or Miranda replaces Kepler, or Kirilloff and Larnach play the corner OF spots with Miranda/Arraez at 3B and Donaldson at 1B. Upgrade defensively and at the plate at first base, downgrade defensively in right field but probable upgrade at the plate. Worth doing if we can get young, controllable players or good prospects at positions of need. Most likely result, though, is that they both stay with the Twins for most of their career. We frankly value them higher than the rest of the league does and so they’re likely to stay.

I think this is a very well reasoned article and a solid approach, although I would tweak it in one way. I think the twins really need to go hard For a youngish, front line starter like Marcus Stroman and sign him to a four or five year contract. Sign Buxton on a 5 to 7 year deal. Sign Rogers for three years, $20-$25 million. I would also bring back Pineda on a one year, $6-8 million kind of deal (or2 years if necessary). He will give us 125 solid starter innings so he doesn’t block someone completely. He simply shares one starter spot with a midseason call-up type. The rotation starts out as Stroman, Pineda, Ober, Ryan, and Dobnak. There will be plenty of opportunity for the next group of starters like Strotman, Winder, etc. from IL stints, the inevitable two months off for Pineda, and potential ineffectiveness. The most important thing is to get Ober and Ryan 30 starts so we know if they are solid mid rotation type starters for 2023 or more, or just not ready. Then in the off-season before the 2023 season, sign one more number two or number three starter and you have your contending rotation. In effect, use 2022 to find a minimum of three solid or better starters from the young starters. Frankly, I also agree that we should use this off-season to separate the wheat from the chaff in terms of that on-field core and see if there are good prospects out there for some of the Players who are not likely to be helping us in that next hoped for contention window of 2023-26. The three obvious question marks are Kepler, Sano, and Donaldson, the first two because they just haven’t really panned out the way we hoped and the third because of his age and physical condition. I would at least gauge the trade market for these guys. I think it is unrealistic that they will bring back a controllable starter, but I could see them bringing some high ceiling prospects or a young shortstop. That does leave us with a young batting order that’s likely to have some significant ups and downs so I would see if we can augment it by resigning Nelson Cruz or keeping Donaldson to be that number 4 hitter bulwark. They may not want to do that given the contention window is at least a year away but it’s worth a shot so we have some lineup stability as the group develops. So in short, use 2022 as a development year around a good starter, a good number 4 hitter, and Rogers as the bullpen stalwart. I actually think the talent is good enough for us to win 80-85 games that way, stay in contention for a playoff spot, and give these guys some valuable experience. This should set us up for a 2023-2026 contention window.

I like Nick’s ideas but not adding Kluber, Morton, Cobb, Heany, etc. There’s no real upside there other than hoping to catch a one career year IMHO. I would go all in on the younger guys in the system for next year in a rotation anchored by a top tier guy like Stroman and a re-signed Pineda. I think both Ober and Ryan start next year in the rotation and are given a long leash. Dobnak starts the year in the rotation on a shorter leash and we have the rest of the Strotman/Winder/Blaze/Jax etc. group for depth. We’re not going to have internally developed mid-rotation or better starters for 2023 unless we give guys like Ober and Ryan 30 start next year. Those two look like the best bets right now, and there may be others who show us next year with those two are showing us this year. We cannot develop our own rotation by signing stopgap vets. That’s what you do and you don’t have enough younger options to develop. I do think we have enough younger options. I do recognize that probably means that it will be difficult for us to contend for a playoff spot next year unless the playoffs are expanded. I still see enough there to get us into the 85+ win category, with significant improvement by year end and a good outlook for 2023. And that’s what I see as the best approach; use 2022 as the pitching development year to get us to being a real contender by 2023.

Agreed. We need to improve our pitching through free agency and internal development, not by additional trades. The only players I would trade for pitching are Kepler and maybe Sano, Frankly I don’t think either one of them will bring back a quality starting pitcher. Same even if you traded both in the same trade.

Having an older pitching staff at the beginning of the year actually made sense; it just doesn't make sense now. If you think you're a contender, you tend to have an older pitching group at AAA so you want guys with some MLB experience to pitch when there are injuries rather than prospects. The Dodgers do exactly the same thing if you look at their AAA roster. You want guys like Coulombe, Theilbar, Law, Barraclough, etc. who have pitched in the bigs. They are better short term fill ins on a contending team than untested propects. What doesn't make sense is keeping them now. Do we really think Law, Barraclough or Coulombe will be on the team next year making a contribution? Theilbar I can see. A lot of this has to do with either keeping the Saints' season rolling or suppressing service time. Other wise, this makes no sense.

Hey, who else is Rocco going to run out there to close? Kyle Barraclough? Juan Minaya (actually, he might be an upgrade)? Garza? Garcia? Caleb Theilbar? Tyler Duffy remains missing in action, Rogers is hurt, Alcala is hurt and wasn't great, Coulombe has had is run is now back to being mediocre, and we all cheered when Robles left town. This isn't the manager's fault. I kind of understand why we haven't gone to bringing up the AAA bullpen with the attendant 40 man issues, effect on the Saints title push, etc. I just don't agree with it. It's time to bring up Hamilton and Moran, and I would give Vasquez a shot with them. Push some combination of Barraclough, Garcia, Garza, Coulombe and yes, even Astudillo and Simmons off the 40 man if that's what we need to do. One question. When we add 2 people on 9/1 do they have to go on the 40 man or do we get a "free" look? Might explain some of the head scratching decisions.

That makes sense. No need to call up whoever is going to take his spot in the rotation yet since that spot won't come up until Friday or Saturday. Besides, we can always give Albers a start. I cringe at that, but I have to admit that the guy went 4 innings, one run in NY. Lots of reasons that it could be a mirage - late innings in a blow out game, no one has seen him for 2-3 years, etc. - but he did perform when given the opportunity. Does make one wonder how he would do in a regular start in MN against Milwaukee this coming weekend. I have a feeling that we may just find out. I'd even bet that he will be with the organization next year as a 6th or 7th starter in St. Paul and will wind up getting a few starts with the Twins. Who would have guessed that over the last couple of years?

I see that Maeda went on the IL. Who comes up? Strotman is on the 40 man roster, Ryan has pitched better, and Miranda is doing great but we need a pitcher. Strotman pitched Sunday, Ryan last Friday and we need a starter on Thursday unless we actually are going to throw Charlie Barnes out to get lit up again or give Gant another try. My guess is Ryan will come up, Gant will start on Thursday as part of a piggy back with Barnes, and Ryan will start on Friday against the Brewers at home. Frankly, almost as likely that they will do the same thing except substitute Strotman for Ryan.

You start with a few facts and the choice is right in front of you. Fact 1- Polanco isn’t going back to SS. He’s the 2B long term. Fact 2 - Donaldson can’t move and is Physically incapable of playing in the field more than 50 to 75 games a year at third base. He hast to be the DH if he stays. Fact 3. - Arraez Has a bad knee, cannot physically play a lot in the outfield because of that knee and requires some either IL or DH time. Fact 4 - We have too many people for the DH/1B/3B spots and none of them can play SS. Either one of them has to be traded or sit on the bench. Fact 5 - there is an open spot in LF and potentially an open part time spot in RF, depending on what you think about Kepler’s future. Neither Rooker or Larnach has shown enough this year to be penciled into LF. I see two choices. Either move Kiriloff back to LF, which opens up first base for Sano, and leaves potentially Donaldson, Miranda and Arraez playing third base and DH. The other choice is to keep Kirilloff at first base, which means either Donaldson has to play third with Sano the DH, Areaez Utl And Miranda a back up infielder or in AAA. In that scenario, Kepler plays almost every day and Larnach and Rooker fight it out for the LF job. My suggestion? Trade Donaldson. Opens up third base for Arraez on a daily basis unless and until Miranda beats him out for the job, and which point he becomes a UTL. Decide if you think either Larnach or Rooker can be your every day leftfielder. If they can’t, and I think it’s pretty clear that Rooker can’t with Larnach still a possibility. put Kirilloff in LF, Sano at 1B, Arraez at 3B/Utl, Give Miranda a shot at third base, and rotate bench players through the DH spot or use it for partial days off. Even better, bring back Nelson Cruz to DH If they can. Miranda this year? Stays in Saint Paul until their season is over. Twins have financial incentives for doing that and they like to have their MILB players taste success on the way up. I don’t think we’ll be seeing him this year unless the Saint Paul season ends in time to give him a taste at the very end of the season. I’m not saying it’s the right call, I think it’s the call they’ve already made.

I think the 7 yr/80m deal they negotiated as his base is frankly a great deal for the Twins. Think about it this way, we're committed to pay Kepler 8.5m next year and 10m in 2023, and Sano 9.25m and 14m those same two years. No question Buxton is worth more than they are if he plays 80 games a season, a lot more if he plays 130. We're getting him for 11.57m a season base. Not a huge risk and one easily worth taking. I don't know what the difference is on the incentives but I can't believe that it's such that there's no deal to be had unless the Twins think that by guaranteeing 11.57m a year that they are stretching. IF they think that, we have the wrong guys negotiating the deals. That's a great deal, it's not a stretch. Let's not delude ourselves into thinking he's going to take a 3 or 4 year deal unless we pay handsomely for it - like 20m a year. A 3 year, 45m deal? Not happening. There is zero incentive for him to take that. He will do better after the 2022 season unless he suffers a career ending injury and he can insure for that. He will get a minimum of 17-20 m a year in guarantees if he has a decent or better season next year. The only way a mid market team can stay competitive is to take risk - signing players long term before having a complete picture or overpaying older players. We can't and won't pay market for guys in their prime. Sometimes it works - see Polanco, sometimes it's a best a small loss - see Donaldson, sometimes its unclear and we might crash and burn - See Kepler and Sano. We still need to take the risk. It's the only way to truly compete. The deal is there. Make it, sign Buxton, and spend the rest of your money on pitching.

Kepler’s a fine defensive player. He just isn’t a good hitter and never has been other than 2019. Yes, his OPS+ is 101 but he’s a corner OF, not a SS, CF, or a C. He is s supposed to be over 100 and should be over 110 to play every day at a corner OF spot. Kepler is a 3rd/4th OF that should be in a platoon playing 3-4 days a week and being a late inning defensive replacement when he doesn’t start. Kepler isn’t a bad player, he’s just a disappointment. We were all hoping he could be a core player going forward on a good team. He’s not. He’s a good defensive OF who should be playing 60% of the time on a good team hitting 7th or 8th and we should be looking for a better player to replace him. He’s not a guy we can build around.

I agree that they both need to play, but I don't think this is that hard. Arraez is the 3rd Baseman next year for 80-100 games, plays second to give Polanco a rest for 20 games, DHs a few, plays LF for a few, and is on the Il at least once with his balky knee. He winds up playing in about 125 – 140 games. Donaldson simply isn't the same guy in the field much anymore because he can't really move, so he winds up DHing 100 games and playing 50-60 games at 3B next year. Frankly, I wouldn't be too surprised if he thought about retirement because of his physical ailments and the Twins worked out a settlement of his contract but I'm probably being a little optimistic there. With Donaldson as the primary DH though, it does make things a little interesting with respect to Sano, Kirilloff, Kepler, Larnach and Rooker. It also pretty much eliminates a Nelson Cruz revival, although I don't think that was a likely scenario anyway. Bottom line, next year I would really like to see the starting lineup with Polanco at 2B, Arraez at 3B, Donaldson (or Cruz) at DH, Sano at 1B, a new SS, Kirilloff in LF, Buxton in CF, Kepler and Miranda platooning in RF, with Miranda also backing up in the infield, a Garver/Jeffers catching combo, Gordon as the IF/OF utility player, and a fight to the death between Rooker, Laranach and maybe Astudillo for that last spot on the bench. Losers go to AAA as the 27th and 28th men to join Cave, Refsnyder and Contreras as players in waiting.

Well said. He’s one of the true cornerstones going forward. The big question is, who else?

His rough patch shouldn't really be a surprise to anyone. He's at least a year ahead of schedule. He has potential and will be back at the MLB level. I think he has a good chance of either breaking camp with the MLB team next spring or being a May type call up.

The on field lineup IS pretty well set for next season. The only issue really is choosing 6 of the following 10 actual or potential Twins for basically 6 roster positions - LF, RF, 3B, DH, and 2 bench spots (assumes we pick up a FA SS, Arraez is one of the non-assigned bench spots as a Utl, and have one C on the bench): Sano, Larnach, Rooker, Refsnyder, Cave, Astudillo, Donaldson (trade candidate), Miranda, Gordon. Nelson Cruz reunion. My prediction is we keep Sano, Donaldson, and (1) either Refsnyder or Cave as the 4th/5th OF but not both, (2) either Larnach or Rooker as the 4th/5th OF/part-time DH but not both, and (3) either Astudillo or Gordon as the Utility IF but not both, and (4) either re-sign Cruz or keep the loser of one of the other 3 battles. I say we should keep Larnach (OF/DH), Rooker (OF/DH), Refsnyder (reserve CF/OF) and Gordon (Utl IF). Love me some Cruz but he clogs up the DH position instead of us running guys through it for half days off and he hasn't hit at all for the Rays. Miranda starts 2022 in AAA and is the first injury call up. Cave is the AAA CF and comes up if Buxton is hurt. Astudillo is the odd man out. The pitching staff? Good luck with that prediction. I will be impressed if someone can give us 13 names (not unnamed FA) as the opening day pitching staff for the 2022 season and get even 11 of them correct.

I live in LA and Simmons was a bit of a head case when he was out here. He skipped the last 10 or so games last year because he just "wasn't feeling it" with the Angels out of contention. Admittedly, those were weird times but it was very clear at that moment he wasn't coming back. Him being a head case isn't a reason to cut him. Him being a head case and having an OPS of .560 with an OPS + of 59 should be enough to at least put him on the bench and forget him. Add in that he didn't get vaccinated, got Covid, caused the team problems, and helped derail this season and it is a little surprising he's still on the team. I understand that the reason he wasn't traded is no else wanted him at the trade deadline, like at all, which should also tell us something. Frankly, he should be gone but we have no one to replace him. Kind of reminds of a certain QB... Look, there' s nothing wrong with making a choice. That's everyone's privilege (not a right in the legal sense, a privilege). There's also nothing wrong with that choice leading to a consequence in society/with your employer, etc. There is no free lunch. When you make a choice, you also choose to live with the consequences of that choice. Cutting or benching Simmons because he isn't vaccinated and posts weird stuff on the internet is probably too severe of a consequence. Cutting or benching Simmons because he can't hit water if he fell out of a boat, has declined from a great to an above average infielder, the team needs to play guys to see if they have next year's SS anywhere in the system, and because he isn't vaccinated and posts weird stuff on the internet is not too severe a consequence. MLB is like most employers; the more valuable you are the more outside BS the Club will tolerate, the less valuable you are the less outside BS the Club will tolerate. Simmons is not very valuable right now.

I completely agree that his year is about evaluating guys. I've been saying that since late May. I just disagree on Rooker and think it's time to move on and evaluate others. He's overmatched and we haven't seen anything that suggests he'll improve. He's getting worse over time. I think we have seen enough to know that he isn't yet ready to compete on the MLB level at the plate. He doesn't provide defensive value so if he doesn't hit, he has no place. Let's keep in mind he hit some but wasn't exactly tearing up AAA before he came up - .239/.362/.546 with 80 SOs in 218 ABs (36%). He got promoted based upon his age and draft position, not so much on his AAA performance. He's probably out as the guy who goes when Buxton is activated. Until then, at least move him down to 7th or 8th in the order. Give the team a chance to be successful. I would bring up Miranda and give him those ABs. Contreras is interesting but we need a RH bat. Miranda has played some OF and his initial shot in the majors is probably on a Utility basis since we have Donaldson, then Arraez, then Sano to play 3B and 2B is taken by Polanco. I say let's see if Miranda can hit MLB pitching. We have to protect him after this year so let's see what we got. Drop Derek Law from the 40 man if we need to. I agree that we need to evaluate guys this year. That doesn't mean we run with them long term if they aren't successful after an opportunity. I just think Rooker has had his shot now twice this year, hasn't hit, and it's time for someone else. Also, let's not worry about a guy leaving and being successful elsewhere. That happens to every team and sometime guys have to leave, and change or get different coaching to be successful. Juan Minaya looks great this year - much better than when he was on the White Sox. That's not because the Twins are brilliant and the White Sox are dummies with relief pitchers because it also goes the other way. Some times it's just situational or coaching approach or frankly, just maturity or blind luck. the only thing we should care about is does the player help us? Right now, Rooker does not and he's getting worse over time, not better, so it's hard to make a case that he will help us in the future. Time for a re-set. Keep the line moving. Miranda is next in that line.

Great update, Ted. I find myself reading the Minor League update almost every day this season. Quick question. Are you going to update the top 20 prospect list to add any of Ryan, Strotman, Martin, etc.? It would be fun to see where they would fit on the list and make it easier to track their progress.

I think they moved Arraez out of the leadoff spot because they want him to be in a spot where he can drive in runs. We're pretty weak in the middle of the order with Donaldson always day to day, Sano streaky or awful, and Garver not playing every day. We should probably remember that the 2-6 middle of lineup this year was intended to be Buxton, Polanco. Cruz, Kirilloff and Donaldson. Only one of those guys now actually is on the team and plays every day. Arraez is the only other player who hits well enough to stay in the middle of the order. Having said that, leading off Kepler makes no sense to me either except that I don't really see anyone else out there other than Arraez and Polanco and they need to hit 3 and 4 or 5. Refsynder could lead off against LH pitching, but Sano, Cave Larnach and Simmons aren't really good enough to lead off vs, RH pitching. I'm not really sure who you put there unless you call up Miranda from AAA or Martin from AA. Hmmm, there's an idea..... As for Rooker, I'm pretty much done. He can't hit well enough yet to be on the MLB roster. Time to recognize that and give someone else the opportunity. Or maybe he gets a few more days of 4-5 ABs and then gets optioned when Buxton is ready. Hmmm, another interesting idea...

Help me guys. I had knee replacement surgery and they gave me opioids for the pain so I may be seeing things that aren't really there. I think the Twins just won 2 straight low scoring games against a 100 win team starting ... Griffin Jax and Bailey Ober? Really? Both saved by Alex Colome? With 6.2 scoreless relief innings from 5 or 6 different guys? Wow, either things have changed or these are really good drugs...

I see Rooker being left off of the 40 man roster in the offseason unless he shows a lot more at the plate in the last roughly 50 games. Frankly I think that's why he's playing so much because we need to make a decision on him v. the younger pitching on the 40 man. My guess is Rooker loses out and that another team is intrigued enough to pick him up.

I'm amazed that JAx actually looks like a legit MLB starter, but I have to admit that he does. Never would have guessed that. I've been on the "why Tortuga on this team" wagon and I have to admit he has shown value as the 25th or 26th guy on a roster. Not a starter but worth having around. To me, the big news other that Jax has been Gant and Colome's recent stretch . Gant looks like the real deal. If he is real and Colome is back to where he was in 2016-2020 we actually are up to 4 pretty good relievers for next year with Rogers and Duffy. Still need to find 3-4 more but that's a lot less than I thought we would need.

Simmons needs to go but we're kidding ourselves if we think the Twins will spend the money for Baez, Seeger, or Correa. This team will spend it's money on pitching and either move Polanco back to SS or sign a Freddy Galvis / Jose Iglesias stop gap SS for next year. I think it's telling that Simmons is still playing SS every day with Polanco at 2B. That tells me that the Twins have already decided that they are not going back to Polanco at SS next year and that Gordon isn't a SS option. Otherwise, we'd use the rest of this year for Polanco and/or Gordon to play SS and see if either can play the position well enough to be the SS next year. Get ready for a filler again next year while we wait for Lewis, Palacios or Martin to come up longer term.

I agree with most of this (not all), but I particularly agree with the Beau Burrows comment. There seems top be a reluctance to admit an honest mistake and move on. I understand picking him up, I really DON"T understand keeping him on the roster. We need to pick these guys up, evaluate them, and cut bait when we're wrong. Hopefully he's been DFA'd by the time you read this. I wonder if part of the issue is ego or that they're trying not to bring guys up in a bad year and pick up an extra year of control. I hope that's not it because that strikes me a mistake. THIS is the evaluation year. Use it. I have to also wonder a little about those who are suggesting that Terry Ryan was/would have been/could have been as good as the current FO. I just think that flies n the face of reality. This franchise was going nowhere fast when these guys took over. There was little to no chance of improvement. Now we have improved and I think in a way that never would have occurred with Ryan. He was great in the 90s and early 200s, lousy when he came back. He didn't keep up with analytical and technological trends and the team fell behind. We needed new blood. Now, the new FO may not be the long term answer. I get that. Suggesting that they haven't been a huge improvement just doesn't make sense to me.