LA Vikes Fan

Good analysis. This article points out something we all kind of know and supports it with real data. Kepler is an above average fielding corner outfielder with a well below average bat. I don't think moving him to centerfield really helps a lot because tat minimizes his one asset, an above average glove, because he would be an average at best centerfielder. The problem is he just can't hit and for some reason he is unwilling to do anything other than pull the ball on regular basis. He's got to be the easiest guy in the American League to shift against. With these flaws, I think it's unlikely that we would be able to trade him for much pitching unless we included an upside prospect with him in a package. Maybe somebody who is not an elite or even strong prospect but projects to be a possible mid to back rotation starter or solid bullpen piece regarding whom there is still some doubt. That might be someone like Winder or Strotman or, if we are willing to take more risk on the return side, maybe someone like Jax or Barnes. I will say that if I'm right on the possible return, Kepler probably has more value to the Twins than he does to anybody else. We are probably still a year away from having a capable replacement given the somewhat gaping hole we presently have in left field. Even if Kirilloff becomes our regular leftfielder and continues his development as a solid or better than that hitter, it's not like we have another outfielder banging on the door to take Kepler's place in 2022. Larnach wasn't quite ready when he came up this year and neither is Celestino or Rooker. I think the best thing for Kepler is to continue to work with him on learning to hit the ball to left field while at the same time effectively platooning him with who we think is our best right-handed hitting outfield prospect to give that player a chance to develop. In my view, that's probably Celestino given how well he hit at AAA when he went back down. We use the 1st half to two thirds of 2022 to see if the younger player can develop and/or if Kepler and finally gets a better approach at the plate and each of them and effectively also functions as the backup centerfielder. I just don't think trading him makes sense because of the low likely return and I do think the Twins highest priority in the off-season is to re-sign Buxton

I agree on the SS position. I just don't see them trusting Polanco or Gordon, nor should they. I would expect them to sign someone like Freddy Galvis or Jose Iglesias although the latter just had kind of a brutal year in the field for the Angels. How about Sano as a bounce back candidate? He's had a strong second half but he was so bad the first half that he was almost unplayable. I would consider a .240 avg., 35 HRs and a 30% or less strikeout rate a great improvement. That may be more of an improvement than a bounce back though. The other bounce back candidate is Tyler Duffy. Again, better in the second half but not good in the first. I would love to se him show up in shape and have a sub 3.00 ERA year but having two good halves instead of just one.

I think in evaluating the 40 man roster decisions last winter we have to bear in mind that the Twins were expecting to be contenders. Window was wide open as they say, until it turned out to be totally shut. Either way, last winter the Front Office seemed to prioritize players who would be able to contribute right away, like Devin Smeltzer, over the players they saw as being a couple of years away, like Tyler Wells and Baddoo. It’s the same reason we have so many AAAA players at Saint Paul, we were looking for guys who could come up for a few games and potentially contribute rather than guys to develop because we were in the contention window. Well, that evaluation turned out to be wrong. Now, we have to make the same evaluation again. Is this team going to contend in 2022 we should be playing for the long haul? I think it goes without saying that we should be playing for the long-haul given the state of our pitching staff. To me, that means he made 40 man decisions based upon long-term prospects without considering the short term. Guys like Jake Cave, Astudillo, Lewis Thorpe, Devin Smeltzer, Luke Farrell, Nick Vincent, etc. are not protected so that you can keep the guys you consider to be the better long term prospects. Next year is more of a development year where who knows, maybe we get lucky and contend, not a year we expect to contend. Hopefully the Front Office sees it the same way and makes 40 man decisions accordingly.

Couldn't have said it better, Big Dog. Now is the time.

Abolsutely. At worst, we find out that Gordon can't be an everyday SS but he gets some experience at the MLB level playing the position so he can play their on a utility basis if necessary next year. Who knows, maybe we will get lucky and he actually has a chance to play there on a regular basis. If he can, we do not have to to spend money to bring in a free agent SS and we can use that money on pitching. Probably not, but it sure as heck doesn't hurt to try him out now. It's kind of hard to care if we go 10 – 6 for the last 16 games or 6 – 10.

How to spell the right term for a guy like Jax whos is consistently excellent the first time through the order, gets hit hard the second time, and gets absolutely shelled the third time? R-E-L-I-E-F PITCHER . I think Jax has some talent but I also think we've seen enough to know that he isn't a top 5 starter on a winning team. I think the issue is whether he provides more value as the 7th or 8th starter awaiting the call from AAA or whether he could be an effective reliever in a MLB Bullpen. I would love to give him a try in the bullpen this year but with all of the injuries I don't know that we have anyone to take his place if we give him a shot in relief. I'm glad Gordon played SS last night and I think we should keep doing it. I didn't see the game but we need to know if he can hold down that position. If he can't, he's a utility player fighting for the 25th or 26th spot on the 2022 Twins and we go out and get a FA SS in the off season. If he can, then we spend our SS money on pitching. One game isn't enough to know. I'd like to see him start at SS for at least 12 of the last 16 games so we can find out if he's a possible answer.

Interesting idea for which you should be congratulated, but I come out as a "No' because I don't see Torres glove work as good enough for a team with a very young starting pitching staff. Freddy Galvis is a better choice. Juan Igelsias also MIGHT be if his work for the Angels this year is an aberration and he rebounds to be the better SS that he has been in the past. Having said that, the idea of trading Kepler for a shortstop and/or pitching help is a good one but I think you guys are smoking crack as to Kepler's value. If we are being generous, Kepler is a good fielding, below average hitting corner outfielder (waaaaay below average in 2021) with occasional power who can play a decent but not great center field in a pinch for a couple of weeks. In other words, he is a good, solid 4th outfielder on a contending team. If we look at his history, this is all he has ever been other than in 2019 and it is becoming more and more clear that his performance in 2019 was an outlier probably assisted by the juice balls used that year. He is not going to be good enough to get a controllable starting pitcher even as the lead player in a package. He is the 2nd or 3rd player in that package. We are going to have to trade somebody better from the farm system, like a young pitcher, to get that controllable starter. Kepler is nowhere near enough.

I love this idea. I may do the same. I'm already thinking of betting on Arizona Sunday in their game with the Vikings for the same reason,

I agree but was he throwing 91-92 with the Twins? He looked very hittable and frankly, a long way from being able to contribute to a MLB team. He looked very overmatched when he was up before. It would be great if Barnes could help next year. So far it looks like Ober and Ryan (I know, SSS) can really help us next year in the rotation absent injury. We need at least one more internal pitcher and Jax does not look like the answer to that question. Maybe Gant, but his track record as a starter in St. Louis does not inspire confidence. He looks more like a decent reliever.

I agree and Kepler. He is a 4th OF or a left-handed half of a platoon With a younger player breaking in. He does provide defensive value so he’s worth having, but not starting every day, and definitely not batting in one of the first six spots in the order. I think he plays because we don’t really have anybody else given the struggles of Rooker and Larnach Both at the plate and in the field. I would frankly like them to bring up Miranda and give him a shot in the outfield. He has played there some in AAA. The other guy is Mark Contreras, but he is another left-handed hitter. The issue is we just don’t have anyone to replace him right now. We should definitely be looking for an upgrade in the off-season.

Guys, I think you're deluding yourselves on Jax. He doesn’t look like a MLB starter. No out pitch, not enough velocity or command. On the other hand, I could see him as a successful reliever, even a high leverage guy. That’s where he belongs.

Amen, brother. We have to develop our own number one starter. It’s difficult to find one in a trade and we simply aren’t going to be able to/willing to pay the prices for a free agent at that level. The only way you develop a number one starter is to get them on the mound and let them pitch. We learned this year that Ober has a real chance to be a mid rotation guy or better, that Jax isn’t ready and may be a better relief pitcher than starter, and that Charlie Barnes probably doesn’t have enough stuff to make it in the majors. We found that out by pitching them and giving them a chance to succeed or fail. We need to keep doing that for guys like Ryan, Winder, Strotman, Blaze, etc. 2022 is the perfect year to do that in the rotation and, frankly, at a few positions in the field.I would say we went one for three this year on starters, with Ryan still a question mark Since he just got here. And I think that Jax could actually be a quality relief pitcher at the major-league level. That’s about as good as you can expect to do. Let’s get these guys on the mound and see what they have.

I agree on Kepler and Sano. I think we need to recognize what other teams will see them as being. Kepler is a below average hitting, good defensive corner outfielder who can also play centerfield. Perfect 4th outfielder for a good team like the Yankees or Oakland, not a starter. Sano is a boom or bust power hitter with no defensive position that he can competently play. In other words, a DH that hits sixth in the lineup. Those guys, even packaged together, are not going to get us a young controllable starter. They might get us a young shortstop, young relief pitching, or solid prospects. In both cases, I think that’s a trade worth making. Kirilloff replaces Sano, Larnach or Miranda replaces Kepler, or Kirilloff and Larnach play the corner OF spots with Miranda/Arraez at 3B and Donaldson at 1B. Upgrade defensively and at the plate at first base, downgrade defensively in right field but probable upgrade at the plate. Worth doing if we can get young, controllable players or good prospects at positions of need. Most likely result, though, is that they both stay with the Twins for most of their career. We frankly value them higher than the rest of the league does and so they’re likely to stay.

I think this is a very well reasoned article and a solid approach, although I would tweak it in one way. I think the twins really need to go hard For a youngish, front line starter like Marcus Stroman and sign him to a four or five year contract. Sign Buxton on a 5 to 7 year deal. Sign Rogers for three years, $20-$25 million. I would also bring back Pineda on a one year, $6-8 million kind of deal (or2 years if necessary). He will give us 125 solid starter innings so he doesn’t block someone completely. He simply shares one starter spot with a midseason call-up type. The rotation starts out as Stroman, Pineda, Ober, Ryan, and Dobnak. There will be plenty of opportunity for the next group of starters like Strotman, Winder, etc. from IL stints, the inevitable two months off for Pineda, and potential ineffectiveness. The most important thing is to get Ober and Ryan 30 starts so we know if they are solid mid rotation type starters for 2023 or more, or just not ready. Then in the off-season before the 2023 season, sign one more number two or number three starter and you have your contending rotation. In effect, use 2022 to find a minimum of three solid or better starters from the young starters. Frankly, I also agree that we should use this off-season to separate the wheat from the chaff in terms of that on-field core and see if there are good prospects out there for some of the Players who are not likely to be helping us in that next hoped for contention window of 2023-26. The three obvious question marks are Kepler, Sano, and Donaldson, the first two because they just haven’t really panned out the way we hoped and the third because of his age and physical condition. I would at least gauge the trade market for these guys. I think it is unrealistic that they will bring back a controllable starter, but I could see them bringing some high ceiling prospects or a young shortstop. That does leave us with a young batting order that’s likely to have some significant ups and downs so I would see if we can augment it by resigning Nelson Cruz or keeping Donaldson to be that number 4 hitter bulwark. They may not want to do that given the contention window is at least a year away but it’s worth a shot so we have some lineup stability as the group develops. So in short, use 2022 as a development year around a good starter, a good number 4 hitter, and Rogers as the bullpen stalwart. I actually think the talent is good enough for us to win 80-85 games that way, stay in contention for a playoff spot, and give these guys some valuable experience. This should set us up for a 2023-2026 contention window.

I like Nick’s ideas but not adding Kluber, Morton, Cobb, Heany, etc. There’s no real upside there other than hoping to catch a one career year IMHO. I would go all in on the younger guys in the system for next year in a rotation anchored by a top tier guy like Stroman and a re-signed Pineda. I think both Ober and Ryan start next year in the rotation and are given a long leash. Dobnak starts the year in the rotation on a shorter leash and we have the rest of the Strotman/Winder/Blaze/Jax etc. group for depth. We’re not going to have internally developed mid-rotation or better starters for 2023 unless we give guys like Ober and Ryan 30 start next year. Those two look like the best bets right now, and there may be others who show us next year with those two are showing us this year. We cannot develop our own rotation by signing stopgap vets. That’s what you do and you don’t have enough younger options to develop. I do think we have enough younger options. I do recognize that probably means that it will be difficult for us to contend for a playoff spot next year unless the playoffs are expanded. I still see enough there to get us into the 85+ win category, with significant improvement by year end and a good outlook for 2023. And that’s what I see as the best approach; use 2022 as the pitching development year to get us to being a real contender by 2023.

Agreed. We need to improve our pitching through free agency and internal development, not by additional trades. The only players I would trade for pitching are Kepler and maybe Sano, Frankly I don’t think either one of them will bring back a quality starting pitcher. Same even if you traded both in the same trade.

Having an older pitching staff at the beginning of the year actually made sense; it just doesn't make sense now. If you think you're a contender, you tend to have an older pitching group at AAA so you want guys with some MLB experience to pitch when there are injuries rather than prospects. The Dodgers do exactly the same thing if you look at their AAA roster. You want guys like Coulombe, Theilbar, Law, Barraclough, etc. who have pitched in the bigs. They are better short term fill ins on a contending team than untested propects. What doesn't make sense is keeping them now. Do we really think Law, Barraclough or Coulombe will be on the team next year making a contribution? Theilbar I can see. A lot of this has to do with either keeping the Saints' season rolling or suppressing service time. Other wise, this makes no sense.

Hey, who else is Rocco going to run out there to close? Kyle Barraclough? Juan Minaya (actually, he might be an upgrade)? Garza? Garcia? Caleb Theilbar? Tyler Duffy remains missing in action, Rogers is hurt, Alcala is hurt and wasn't great, Coulombe has had is run is now back to being mediocre, and we all cheered when Robles left town. This isn't the manager's fault. I kind of understand why we haven't gone to bringing up the AAA bullpen with the attendant 40 man issues, effect on the Saints title push, etc. I just don't agree with it. It's time to bring up Hamilton and Moran, and I would give Vasquez a shot with them. Push some combination of Barraclough, Garcia, Garza, Coulombe and yes, even Astudillo and Simmons off the 40 man if that's what we need to do. One question. When we add 2 people on 9/1 do they have to go on the 40 man or do we get a "free" look? Might explain some of the head scratching decisions.

That makes sense. No need to call up whoever is going to take his spot in the rotation yet since that spot won't come up until Friday or Saturday. Besides, we can always give Albers a start. I cringe at that, but I have to admit that the guy went 4 innings, one run in NY. Lots of reasons that it could be a mirage - late innings in a blow out game, no one has seen him for 2-3 years, etc. - but he did perform when given the opportunity. Does make one wonder how he would do in a regular start in MN against Milwaukee this coming weekend. I have a feeling that we may just find out. I'd even bet that he will be with the organization next year as a 6th or 7th starter in St. Paul and will wind up getting a few starts with the Twins. Who would have guessed that over the last couple of years?

I see that Maeda went on the IL. Who comes up? Strotman is on the 40 man roster, Ryan has pitched better, and Miranda is doing great but we need a pitcher. Strotman pitched Sunday, Ryan last Friday and we need a starter on Thursday unless we actually are going to throw Charlie Barnes out to get lit up again or give Gant another try. My guess is Ryan will come up, Gant will start on Thursday as part of a piggy back with Barnes, and Ryan will start on Friday against the Brewers at home. Frankly, almost as likely that they will do the same thing except substitute Strotman for Ryan.

You start with a few facts and the choice is right in front of you. Fact 1- Polanco isn’t going back to SS. He’s the 2B long term. Fact 2 - Donaldson can’t move and is Physically incapable of playing in the field more than 50 to 75 games a year at third base. He hast to be the DH if he stays. Fact 3. - Arraez Has a bad knee, cannot physically play a lot in the outfield because of that knee and requires some either IL or DH time. Fact 4 - We have too many people for the DH/1B/3B spots and none of them can play SS. Either one of them has to be traded or sit on the bench. Fact 5 - there is an open spot in LF and potentially an open part time spot in RF, depending on what you think about Kepler’s future. Neither Rooker or Larnach has shown enough this year to be penciled into LF. I see two choices. Either move Kiriloff back to LF, which opens up first base for Sano, and leaves potentially Donaldson, Miranda and Arraez playing third base and DH. The other choice is to keep Kirilloff at first base, which means either Donaldson has to play third with Sano the DH, Areaez Utl And Miranda a back up infielder or in AAA. In that scenario, Kepler plays almost every day and Larnach and Rooker fight it out for the LF job. My suggestion? Trade Donaldson. Opens up third base for Arraez on a daily basis unless and until Miranda beats him out for the job, and which point he becomes a UTL. Decide if you think either Larnach or Rooker can be your every day leftfielder. If they can’t, and I think it’s pretty clear that Rooker can’t with Larnach still a possibility. put Kirilloff in LF, Sano at 1B, Arraez at 3B/Utl, Give Miranda a shot at third base, and rotate bench players through the DH spot or use it for partial days off. Even better, bring back Nelson Cruz to DH If they can. Miranda this year? Stays in Saint Paul until their season is over. Twins have financial incentives for doing that and they like to have their MILB players taste success on the way up. I don’t think we’ll be seeing him this year unless the Saint Paul season ends in time to give him a taste at the very end of the season. I’m not saying it’s the right call, I think it’s the call they’ve already made.

I think the 7 yr/80m deal they negotiated as his base is frankly a great deal for the Twins. Think about it this way, we're committed to pay Kepler 8.5m next year and 10m in 2023, and Sano 9.25m and 14m those same two years. No question Buxton is worth more than they are if he plays 80 games a season, a lot more if he plays 130. We're getting him for 11.57m a season base. Not a huge risk and one easily worth taking. I don't know what the difference is on the incentives but I can't believe that it's such that there's no deal to be had unless the Twins think that by guaranteeing 11.57m a year that they are stretching. IF they think that, we have the wrong guys negotiating the deals. That's a great deal, it's not a stretch. Let's not delude ourselves into thinking he's going to take a 3 or 4 year deal unless we pay handsomely for it - like 20m a year. A 3 year, 45m deal? Not happening. There is zero incentive for him to take that. He will do better after the 2022 season unless he suffers a career ending injury and he can insure for that. He will get a minimum of 17-20 m a year in guarantees if he has a decent or better season next year. The only way a mid market team can stay competitive is to take risk - signing players long term before having a complete picture or overpaying older players. We can't and won't pay market for guys in their prime. Sometimes it works - see Polanco, sometimes it's a best a small loss - see Donaldson, sometimes its unclear and we might crash and burn - See Kepler and Sano. We still need to take the risk. It's the only way to truly compete. The deal is there. Make it, sign Buxton, and spend the rest of your money on pitching.

Kepler’s a fine defensive player. He just isn’t a good hitter and never has been other than 2019. Yes, his OPS+ is 101 but he’s a corner OF, not a SS, CF, or a C. He is s supposed to be over 100 and should be over 110 to play every day at a corner OF spot. Kepler is a 3rd/4th OF that should be in a platoon playing 3-4 days a week and being a late inning defensive replacement when he doesn’t start. Kepler isn’t a bad player, he’s just a disappointment. We were all hoping he could be a core player going forward on a good team. He’s not. He’s a good defensive OF who should be playing 60% of the time on a good team hitting 7th or 8th and we should be looking for a better player to replace him. He’s not a guy we can build around.

I agree that they both need to play, but I don't think this is that hard. Arraez is the 3rd Baseman next year for 80-100 games, plays second to give Polanco a rest for 20 games, DHs a few, plays LF for a few, and is on the Il at least once with his balky knee. He winds up playing in about 125 – 140 games. Donaldson simply isn't the same guy in the field much anymore because he can't really move, so he winds up DHing 100 games and playing 50-60 games at 3B next year. Frankly, I wouldn't be too surprised if he thought about retirement because of his physical ailments and the Twins worked out a settlement of his contract but I'm probably being a little optimistic there. With Donaldson as the primary DH though, it does make things a little interesting with respect to Sano, Kirilloff, Kepler, Larnach and Rooker. It also pretty much eliminates a Nelson Cruz revival, although I don't think that was a likely scenario anyway. Bottom line, next year I would really like to see the starting lineup with Polanco at 2B, Arraez at 3B, Donaldson (or Cruz) at DH, Sano at 1B, a new SS, Kirilloff in LF, Buxton in CF, Kepler and Miranda platooning in RF, with Miranda also backing up in the infield, a Garver/Jeffers catching combo, Gordon as the IF/OF utility player, and a fight to the death between Rooker, Laranach and maybe Astudillo for that last spot on the bench. Losers go to AAA as the 27th and 28th men to join Cave, Refsnyder and Contreras as players in waiting.

Well said. He’s one of the true cornerstones going forward. The big question is, who else?