LA Vikes Fan

Castro's average vs. Civale must explain why Kepler is hitting 5 and Castro 7 instead of the other way around. I'm as big a Kepler basher as there is here - guy can't hit - but I hope he comes through today and for the rest of the year. A Kepler that could hit at even his lifetime stats of .231/.316/.426 (.742) would be worth the number 7 or 8 spot in the lineup. Still have to think that Wallner would be better, though. Ah, to dream . . .

Wallner first, regardless of who goes on IL. Don't forget that Castro can play 3B pretty well and is decent at 2B so we don't have to bring up an infielder if Correa goes out with Lewis and Farmer around to play short, and Castro and Solano to back up both 3B and 2B. If two guys go on the IL? Very tough because there isn't another healthy hot player in AAA outside of Wallner. I would guess Julien is next though, rather than Miranda unless Miranda has really started to come on.

Agreed. The offense is really the issue. I guess that's what makes the continued use of Kepler and Taylor in particular so frustrating. Both have a pretty consistent track record of offensive futility. It is very unlikely they will be better than their career averages and in the case of Kepler, it's becoming more and more evident that he is on the downward slope. Corner outfielder's need to hit and it's more important that they hit then that they field as long as there are at least adequate.Yes, defense important particularly in CF so I understand Taylor a little more. Personally, I would give Castro some run in CF if we're not going to play Buxton there and see if he can handle the position the field. The offense needs to improve. The most obvious ways to do that are to (1) replace Kepler with either Wallner or LArnach (when he's healthy) on an everyday basis - they may not be better but it difficult for them to be worse and the potential for better is there, (2) give Castro the majority of work in CF (4+ days a week) so we can get him, Lewis and Gallo all in the lineup together, and (3) get Buxton in centerfield 2-3 days a week with Castro there most of the other time. This would replace Kepler and Taylor in the lineup with Castro and either Wallner or Larnach once the latter is available, and potentially open up the DH spot two – three days a week to get guys a partial day off and/or to get Wallner, Larnach, Farmer, and Solano in the lineup more regularly – even potentially Jeffers when he is not catching. I think that would definitely help the lineup.

Julien looks like the classic guy who could be an asset in another year or two but isn't quite ready now. The difference between a quality AAA player and a quality MLB player is in the details and consistency. That's where he has his issues. He is inconsistent in the field, inconsistent at the plate, and needs a lot more refinement on defense. I think the bottom line is he just isn't quite ready yet and is probably more of a 2024 consideration in the 2023 asset although it is nice to have someone like that for depth. I do think he can be a quality major-league player at second base so I don't think we should move him to 1B or make him the centerpiece of a trade. Instead, have him continue to really focus on defense at AAA.

Weird lineup. Why is Buxton out again? Is there an injury issue we don't know about? I understand giving Correa a day with his plantar fasciitis. What about Lewis? Will it be 2 on, one off for awhile? The bigger question is why the lineup in Houston this series has included our two worst hitters as everyday players - Taylor and Kepler. It's just mind boggling.

I agree. I would like to see them continue the trend by playing Wallner over Kepler, Julien over Solano, and Castro over Taylor. Doing this requires Buxton to play the field. Put Maeda in the bullpen when he's ready over Pagan and leave Ober and Varland in the rotation. To me, that's the youth movement we need.

I agree that we tend to be a little too negative here about the team. I think that's because we had higher expectations than were justified. The 'experts" predicted 80-85 wins. I think we're going to be on the higher end of that - after 1/3 of the season we projected to 84 wins (28-26 x 3 = 84-78) - and that's with injury issues. I think we may have overhyped ourselves into thinking this was a 90+ win team and anything less than that seems like a disappointment. I'm an optimist because I think the hardest thing to find is good starting pitching and we have a very good rotation that looks like it will be good in the future. We have some young talent that looks like it may be coming of age in Kirilloff and Jeffers, and we have Lewis, Julien, Castro, Wallner, and Larnach who may join them. All positive and all fun. Here's the 2 things that drag me down. First, Correa and Buxton are simply not performing and it's starting to look like it's more than just a slump. I don't think Buxton will perform as a DH. It's hard to do that and I think he would benefit from playing in the field, injury risk and all. Frankly, having him on the IL is not a whole lot less production than we've gotten from him the last 15-20 games. Correa looks hurt and should sit for 10 days if we think that will help. If not, move him to the 5 or 6 hole and leave him there until he hits. Second, I just don't understand why we won't embrace the youth movement. We need to accept that we probably aren't a WS contender and this could be a great year to play the younger guys, develop them, and probably still win the division. The old core simply isn't good enough. We need to play Kirilloff, Lewis, Castro, Julien, and Wallner every day to see what they got. Catch Jeffers 50% or more of the time. Instead, we trot out guys who don't really contribute much and won't be here next year - Kepler, Solano, Taylor, Pagan and soon Maeda (watch, he will go into the rotation and Varland will go to AAA). Gallo is ok but not really what we need. DFA Solano, bench or trade Kepler and Taylor, call up Wallner, see if there's a market for Gallo, and put Buxton in the field so the younger guys can play every day by opening up the DH spot and LF. This could be a fun team to watch and it just isn't very fun or very successful. I'm willing to take a chance on our short term success to make them more fun and improve our long term chances. Turn over the roster and go.

How about moving Buxton to LF? Yes, still injury concerns but fewer chances assumedly means less risk. Castro (60%) and Taylor (40%) play CF. Gallo plays RF/1B 80% of the time, same for Kirilloff (at 1B unless Gallo has a leg issue), and Kepler plays RF the days Gallo or Kirilloff sit or DH. Also opens up a spot for Julien to stay, play 2B 2-3 days a week while Polanco sits or DHs. I don't know if that really solves the problem but helps.

Would there be less risk if we played Buxton in LF? IF so, who wins and loses in that scenario? it would open up the DH spot which might allow us to get more ABs out of Polanco, and keep Julien, Wallner or Larnach on the roster and give them 4 days a week in the lineup. It means Gallo plays RF and Kepler sits, with MAT and Castro playing in CF. Kepler loses out but he isn't hitting and hasn't hit since 2019. Something that should be considered?

Agreed. Why is Kepler starting over Castro? I just don't get this man crush Rocco has with Kepler. Love the glove, but he is not an every day player with his level of offensive production.

Agreed, but probably what we should have expected. We scored less than 700 runs last year and the only meaningful off season "improvement" was Joey Gallo. Let's say Gallo is basically as wash with what we expected from Miranda, and until recently we've been really running out the same team as last year most of the time. The change if it comes will be from adding younger guys into the core. We've added Kirilloff and now are adding Lewis. Frankly, Castro is becoming part of the core over time. I'm not sold on Julien but he's a possibility, although likely a casualty when Polanco comes back. I'd prefer that they DFA Castro and give Julien some run - he could be a lot better. The only way we are going to improve the offense is to replace weak performers with guys who might be better and who would make us less reliant on the HR. We've replaced Farmer with Lewis, Miranda with Kirilloff, and may be in the process of a partial replacement of Vasquez with more Jeffers. I would like to see us replace Kepler with Wallner - risky and hard to do with Kepler's seniority - and replace MAT with Julien by playing Buxton in CF or LF (with Castro in CF) and opening up the DH spot to a rotation. Can't see anything else on the horizon that could help, but add Polanco back in every day to the above and we may improve at least some. Have Correa and/or Buxton hit better would also add a bunch. A lineup of Polanco/Julien, Lewis, Correa, Buxton, Kirilloff, Julien/Polanco (depending on who you like leading off - Gallo is not the answer there), Castro, Gallo, Jeffers/Vasquez could perform a lot better. Bench is MAT, Kepler, Farmer, and the other catcher.

Sending down Wallner seems strange ... until you think about who else we have. Castro has been one of if not our best hitter over the last 30 games (.270/.333/.436). Gallo leads the team in HRs and it's way too early for them to cut bait on the investment. Farmer is in a slump at the plate, but we need a backup SS and he's had good stretches at the plate too. Julien will go down on a day or two when Polanco is ready to come back. The obvious two to wonder about are Solano and Kepler. Solano does give us a RH decent bat, but no power and not much else. Kepler is who he is, a weak bat great glove corner OF. Add to that the fact that there's no DH to give Wallner regular ABS and the answer is unfortunately pretty clear. I would have liked to see Buxton go back to the OF or maybe have kept Wallner over Solano but you can't fault the logic of what was done. My hpe is that we'll trade either Gallo or Kepler for relief pitching and open up a spot.

I like Jeffers better, but Vasquez is hitting .333 against Berrios. SSS, but still something. Also, does anyone have a stat on pitcher's ERA pitching to Vasquez vs. pitching to Jeffers (or some other stat)? Just curious.

I think Willi Castro has taken over the Garlick role. Garlick should be gone as soon as we take one of the guys off the IL. Castro, Wallner, and Julien all deserve to stay over Garlick. The only way Garlick should stay when we activate Polanco or Kepler is if Taylor goes on the IL. Even then, he should go so Lewis can come up Monday.

You're right on. Buxton in CF tomorrow? How about Willi Castro if they want to keep Buxton DH'ing?

I think you're right unless.... can he play a a passable CF? MAT is way off, may be because of his back issues. I see an IL stint coming for him. Castro as an everyday CF a possibility?

It may be a pitch sequence thing as well as a pitch usage issue. When batters consistently can foul off a sweeper, that suggest that they have a good idea that it's coming. He may be relying too much on his "best" pitch when it's a pitch that is more swing and miss effective off of a fastball or sinker. The stats suggest that he's over reliant on the sweeper. My thought is more fastballs and sinkers could lead to a more effective out pitch with the sweeper. BTW, this lines up with the eye test when I've watched the games. Jax pitches well but lacks an out pitch that can get the swing and miss or pop up kind of contact. He has real trouble putting hitters away when he gets ahead. He reminds a little of Jake Odorizzi - good stuff but lacked an out pitch so 6 innings took 100 plus pitches to get through, and the ball was always in play so there were a lot of "lucky" hits against him.

Let's also not go too far on the Gio Urshela hype train. He is hitting .299, with a .320 OBP, .353 SLG for a .673 OPS. That's right, .673. Not even .700. He is effectively a slow singles hitter with no power. His fielding out here is about the same as it was for the Twins; he's great on balls hit directly to him or within a step or so either way, but has very limited range even for third baseman. He doesn't even start for the Angels. They use him as the IF UTL. He's also in his last year of arbitration . Frankly, I doubt if the Angels will re-sign him for next year unless he is willing to work pretty cheap. The Angels' issue with the Urshela is the same issue the Twins had and the issue that the Yankees had before them. He hits pretty well for a Shortstop (his position when he first came up), but he doesn't hit well enough for power to be an everyday Third Baseman, and he lacks the range to be an everyday Shortstop. The Angels were hoping he could hold down SS, but found out he can't, and now he's a utility infielder.

Two keys for me. First, get Lewis up on May 29, especially if Correa needs 10-15 days for his foot. Second, do NOT demote Wallner; play him every day while we are facing RH starters. Let's see what these two guys can do and if they can be the necessary reinforcements this season. Let's find that out now so we have some intel before we hit trading season. How? Demote Garlick if Kepler is ready and keep Wallner. Promote Lewis if Correa or Gallo has to go on the Il.. If not, promote him Monday and demote/DFA Garlick (if Kepler is still out), Solano or Julien. If Polanco is ready, either Julien, Solano or or Castro goes - I would keep up Castro and DFA/demote Solano. Unlikely that there's much of a market for Solano at his age and he's a one year guy anyway. My overall point is let's find NOW if the MiLB/new guys we have can help us this year. That's Lewis, Castro, Wallner, and Kirilloff. I don't think Julien is quite ready yet and his defense is just... not good. Keep the other 4 up at the expense of guys like Solano and Garlick, and move Kepler if you need to in order to create room. How do we create ABs? Here's an idea - play Buxton in LF, not CF, 3-4 of days a week to open up the DH spot. Less balls to LF, less injury risk. Have CF be mostly Castro, with Taylor doing what h we brought him here to do - play CF against LH pitching and in late inning defensive situations. Gallo can DH to rest his hammy and Wallner can play RF or vice versa. We can get a preliminary read on Wallner over the next 10 days and we can get Lewis acclimated. Let's do it.

Nice and needed win yesterday, but bighat is unfortunately right about the offense as many of us have mentioned in the past. The offense is that it is best average or slightly above average when everyone is available. It is much less than that when there are injuries. Bottom line is that for this offense to be even top half we need Polanco and Correa back and hitting, Buxton to hit .260 plus, not .235, Kirilloff to be a competent #3-#5 hitter and Lewis to come up and give us a spark. I wouldn't get my hopes up for Kepler to help on offense - he is what he is and he isn't a good hitter. For this offense to work we need premier production from Correa and Buxton, very good production from Polanco and Kirilloff, Gallo to hit 35 plus HRs with a .340 plus OBP, Lewis to come up and be a competent leadoff type hitter, and then real offensive contributions from at least two of Farmer, Larnach, Wallner, Taylor, Jeffers, Vasquez, and Kepler. All of those things are possible. Having all those things happen in the same season is pretty unlikely. I would like to see two moves over the next couple of months. First, we badly need another reliever. I would give DeLeon, Balazovic and Lawyerson a real shot for the next six weeks to be a solid bullpen piece. You can make that happen through injuries, putting Sands on the shuttle, or frankly getting rid of Pagan since we know he is not the answer. If that doesn't work, trade Kepler and a decent prospect for a solid relief pitcher. I would love a guy like Chapman (probably too expensive in prospects), be thrilled with a guy like Dylan Florio, and even accept Brad Hand. Second, give Lewis, Wallner, and Julien a decent run in the lineup over that same time. To see if they can be contributors this year. If not, make a trade for another bat preferably one to play left field. They say you spent the first two months of the season seeing what you have, the second two months trying to fill in your holes, and the last two months you play with what you have. We can see the holes in the bullpenand in the lineup. Let's be aggressive and proactive about trying to fill those holes first with younger guys already in the organization and then trades around the All-Star break if that doesn't pan out. Let's just not keep running the same people out there over and over expecting different results.

With Correa at least doubtful for awhile, Lewis may get his chance as soon as May 29 after all. I would like we'd have to bring him up if Correa requires an IL stint. If so, I'd love to see him playing SSS every day with farmer back at 3B or 2B depending on Polanco's health.

Interesting that Castro and Solano are in the lineup but Larnach is not. I understand Castro is hot, but Solano, not so much. although both are warmer than Larnach looking at the stats over the last 15 games. Maybe Larnach goes back to AAA when Kepler is ready.

I think you may have the wrong Castro. MLB.com says Willi Castro has 1083 ABS, 1176 plate appearances. He's just turned 26 in April. He's never had more than 413 ABs in any MLB season. He may never be a competent MLB starter but he's young enough and it's early enough in his development that there is at least a chance he could become more than his stats said he was coming into this season.

This. I would add one other thought. The AL Central is pretty awful this year. There's likely to be some ups and downs with Lewis; most players have those when they first come up. This is a year where the team can endure those and still have a real chance to win the division. Let's take advantage of that and give Lewis and Kirilloff an every day run. Add Larnach if Buxton ever goes back to the OF and opens up the DH spot or if Kepler gets traded. Leave him at 3B and SS though. No need to take a bigger injury risk by playing him in the OF where he got hurt last year and where he hasn't played this year. Play him where he's going to play long term.

You guys may be right that 3 weeks from now Farmer and Castro will be reverting back to pumpkin status. 3 weeks from now Lewis will (or should) be on the the 26 man roster, Taylor's back could improve if he gets 10 days on the IL, Kepler will be back, and Miranda may have rediscovered his magic. My point is that now Farmer and Castro are providing real value. Run them out there every day until that stops and then put them back into the reserve roles they were intended to be in. Let's also avoid the other extreme, holding someone like Lewis down so a guy like Farmer can play every day. Lews should come up the first day he's eligible and play every day. He's hopefully the present and definitely the future. The division is down this year: this is the perfect year to give him (and Kirilloff, and Larnach) some real run while still having a chance to win the division. We can find ABs for Farmer 2-4 days a week in the IF, and I don't see a problem putting him in LF a day or two a week. He won't win a gold glove, but he's played a couple of games there before and if he can play a competent MLB SS, I have to believe he can hold down LF. If we can ever get Buxton in CF 2-3 days a week, Farmer can DH or play SS/2B so Correa and Polanco can DH. Bottom line, give Castro and Farmer some run now while the ABs are available. They've shown AT THE MLB LEVEL that they can add real value in the back half of the lineup and on defense. Play them over Solano, Taylor, Kepler, and Julien. Get Lewis up here ASAP and see what he can do by playing him every day. This lineup needs help, bad, so give it the help we can.