LA Vikes Fan

I like the idea of Larnach for Adell. Both might benefit from a new environment. The sticking point is that the Angels don't need an corner OF and Ohtani clogs up their DH. They either want to keep Adell or trade him in a package for pitching. There may be a 3 way deal in there somewhere. I think where we disagree is not on whether Wallner deserves a shot - he does - but on what this team's needs are. We desperately need a competent leadoff hitter who can get on base and add some base stealing. Julien isn't perfect for that role because of his defensive inadequacies and he isn't going to remind anyone of Ricky Henderson, but he has been an on base machine in MiLB with some base stealing ability and has shown signs of that in his brief MLB work. Wallner has also shown signs of a good power hitter who plays an adequate corner OF. He's a #5-7 hitter. We have more than enough of those guys already so Wallner has to be a replacement for a similar profile like Gallo, Kepler, or Larnach. At least 2 of those guys need to be gone or at the end of the bench before there's really a spot for Wallner. Also, Kirilloff may need to play OF so we can get Polanco in the lineup at 1B and protect his legs while still playing Julien. That moves Wallner farther down the list for this year. Kepler and Gallo are likely not on the Twins next year so that's when he's likely to get his shot. Injuries can change all of this of course. You're right about the bottom line. Julien is getting his shot now. He has a couple of weeks (?) to play his way onto the team. If he does, that probably comes at the expense of others like Wallner.

I tend to agree with you on Larnach. He needs to go to a team that isn't contending where he will play every day and maybe figure it out. Right now he looks like a guy who will hit .220 with 20 HRs and a 33% SO rate. I wonder if we could get a solid controllable relief pitcher from Oakland, Colorado, Washington or the Cubs for him? I would include KC but I don't want him in the division in case he does figure it out. I think it's more likely he stays because there will be openings in the corner OF spots next year when Gallo and Kepler likely are not on the Twins.

Here's my take. I see this year as a chance to turn over the roster and still win a lousy division. This team as constructed is not a WS contender but could go someplace with a youth injection (or could tank, but worth finding out). If the team were to so what I think they should do I think the variability would go way up - higher upside, higher downside. Those things are - DFA/trade Kepler and Pagan, send Larnach to AAA. Play Lewis, Kirilloff, and Julien 5 days a week. Put Maeda in the bullpen to replace Pagan (adjust his contract), Gallo replaces Kepler, just as good in the OF/better offensive production. Buxton replaces Larnach while Julien stays because we need a leadoff hitter more than another power hitting, hitting strikeout corner OF. Polanco replaces Garlick. Typical lineup - Julien (2B/DH), Lewis (3B), Kirilloff (1B), Buxton (CF/LF), Correa (SS), Polanco (2B/DH), Gallo (RF), Jeffers/Vasquez (C), Castro/MAT(LF/CF). Bench - Solano (earned it with his hitting), MAT/Castro, Farmer, backup catcher. First men up from AAA - Wallner, Larnach, Miranda. IF we want Wallner up and can find him a spot to play, Solano gets traded. I just don't see a spot for him to play if we keep Gallo or Kepler and want to play Julien. Trading Gallo and a DFA/trade of Kepler both have to happen before Wallner gets called up. I think Julien is the guy who rates the longer look right now. If Julien or Lewis fails or Castro goes into a deep funk, then it's time for Wallner to get a shot.

This Twins team has the feel of an 84-86 win group. I voted for "make the postseason" because I think 85 wins will win the AL Central. I don't think Maeda will come to rescue the rescue - I think he'll replace Varland in the rotation. Varland has looked bad the last 2 starts, has a 4.70 ERA, and is on the cusp of pitching his way back to AAA. I see them breaking in Lewis and Kirilloff as every day starters, and have hope that they will find a way to get Julien into the lineup most days (I'm beginning to think Polanco"s leg issues may be chronic and he may fight for DH ABs, hope Buxton can play OF). My prediction is that Wallner will not get a long run this year unless someone has a season ending injury, and that Kepler and Pagan will both be on the roster in September, and we won't trade for a bullpen piece other than a mid inning type. I think this is the group they are going to ride with for the season. And this group is a slightly better than .500 club overall. I predicted 88-74 at the start of the season. If the rules allow me to revise my prediction, I would revise it to 85-77 - good enough to win the AL Central by 2 games over Chicago and Cleveland. First round series against Baltimore or Houston, lose the series 2-1. By the way, if the team were to so what I think they should do I think the variability would go way up - higher upside, higher downside. Those things are - DFA/trade Kepler and Pagan, send Larnach to AAA. Play Lewis, Kirilloff, and Julien 5 days a week. Put Maeda in the bullpen to replace Pagan (adjust his contract), Gallo replaces Kepler, Julien replaces Larnach. Typical lineup - Julien (2B/DH), Lewis (3B), Kirilloff (1B), Buxton (CF/LF), Correa (SS), Polanco (2B/DH), Gallo (RF), Jeffers/Vasquez (C), Castro/MAT(LF/CF). Bench - Solano (earned it with his hitting), MAT/Castro, Farmer, backup catcher. First man up from AAA - Wallner, Larnach, Miranda. IF we want Wallner up and can find him a spot to play, Solano gets traded. I just don't see a spot for him to play if we keep Gallo or Kepler and want to play Julien. I think Julien is the guy who rates the longer look right now.

YOur probably right about Larnach as the odd man out unless he really heats up at the plate. What do we do when Polanco is ready if Julien hits?

This is the best lineup we can run out with the players we currently have, although one could quibble that Castro should be playing RF instead of Kepler. Castro has been slumping though so it makes sense to play Kepler after his two hits yesterday. We should have a little more to play next week wehn Gallo is back and replaces I would assume Garlick. Castro can play the RH OF against LH starters role. Any word on Buston coming back or who he'd replace? The choices will start starting to get interesting. Things will get even more interesting if Julien hits while Polanco is out and Miranda keeps hitting in AAA. Both Solano and Castro have played pretty well, although Castro is regressing. It will not be interesting to see what happens if and when we ever get to full strength.

I agree. My only quibble is that I think Polanco can help us this year and next once he gets healthy. I don't think Kepler can, at least not with the twins. He needs to be somewhere else for both his sake and for the team.

It was frank;y good to see Baldelli call out Kepler and it get in the paper. This is after all 3 Strib columnists essentially said it was time for Kepler to go. At least someone is trying to shake up the troops a little. This group needs it. Now it's time to sit Kepler on the bench and leave him there for a few games at least. Whenever a suggestion is made to shake up things, people default to negative stereotypes about the players and manager like, "they are to complacent, don't care..." etc. I don't mean that, I think the players are trying, but that doesn't change the result or what we need. The problem here is the current approach is not working and there has been enough of a sample size to see that it's not going to work with the current group. That leaves two choices -(1) change the approach (don't see how they can do that), or (2) change the players. We have to change the players. There are three obvious moves - DFA Kepler and Garlick, and option Larnach down. One goes for Wallner (Garlick), Kepler goes when Gallo comes back, and Larnach goes for Julien. Why on earth we still ahe Garlick is a complete mystery - he is hitting .192, .158 against lefties. He's 31. He's done. Kepler is right behind him in futility. Larnach is hitting .153 in his last 30 games, .050 in his last 7. Contreras was better last year. Will this help? Who knows but things are unlikely to get worse and a shake up that includes a least one long term untouchable guy could be what we need. Staying the curse is a very bad strategy for this group.

I have to agree with Baldelli on this one. I watched the game and Kepler absolutely should have been on second on that play. They gave him the base by not aggressively covering it. I also wonder of Baldelli isn't also trying to light a fire under this underachieving group by calling out someone publicly. The team isn't playing well, isn't doing the little things or playing smart, and Kepler leads the pack on that score. He's the right guy to call out. It really seems like Kepler isn't "into it" this year. He's kind of going through the motions. Maybe it's because this is his last year with the Twins? He said he went to Paris over the winter to get completely away from baseball and get a mental reset. That suggests he's struggling a little with what he was doing. He may not have gotten the reset he needed. This is complete speculation with no real foundation, but I really wonder if he's kind of checked out mentally right now. He may need some time away.

Agreed. I watched the game and Kepler absolutely should have been on second on that play. They gave him the base by not aggressively covering it. It really seems like Kepler isn't "into it" this year. He's kind of going through the motions. Maybe it's because this is his last year with the Twins? He said he went to Paris over the winter to get completely away form baseball and get a mental reset. That suggests he's struggling a little with what he was doing. He may not have gotten the reset he needed. This is complete speculation with no real foundation, but I really wonder if he's kind of checked out mentally right now. He may need some time away.

06/06/23 Minnesota Twins placed CF Byron Buxton on the 10-day injured list retroactive to June 3, 2023. Left rib contusion.

06/06/23 Minnesota Twins placed CF Byron Buxton on the 10-day injured list retroactive to June 3, 2023. Left rib contusion.

Buxton to Il according to MLB. com.

Corresponding move is Buxton to the IL, retro 3 days.

Buxton to 10 day IL, Larnach up and hitting 5th tonight.

It's up now. Buxton to 10 day Il, Larnach up and batting 5th.

I agree with all that but keep reading that Kepler doesn't want to or won't play CF. I have no idea if that's true but that's the reasoning given for the lack of CF days for Kepler.

I'd love it for you to be right but I don't see any way that Kepler and Solano get that kind of return. Remember, Solano is a 35 year old who plays little to no defense and doesn't run very well. He was a street free agent when the Twins picked him up. Maybe if Kepler got hot we could get something for him but I just don't see him being worth much more than a lottery ticket prospect or 2 or salary relief, and probably not both.

Funny you should mention his eyes. I watched some of the recent games and saw the same thing. First, it looked like he was having trouble seeing at the plate. Then, that was the same game where he butchered a line drive hit right at him. I wonder if he has had a eye test recently?

I think you've hit the nail on the head. This is a classic situation of mismatched expectations. We and the team all expected Max to be a middle of the order bat who played great defense in RF. He had that one year in 2019 and has gone south since. His descent is currently picking up speed. He turned out to be a glove first OF who is not been able to maintain even a mediocre offensive output as he ages. It is unfortunate but it's time for him to be replaced by either Larnach or Wallner, or some combination of them. I know this is going to be tough because he is a long tenured Twin. I just don't think it will be good for the clubhouse if he simply becomes a bench player because I don't think he will take it well. I don't think anybody would take it well in his situation. I would love to trade him for frankly almost anything respectable but I don't know that that opportunity is available. Whether or not we can trade him for something, I think we've hit the point where we need to part ways and get the at bats for the other guys. An IL stint followed by a rehab in AAA followed by trade would be ideal. If that isn't an available option, I think you got to trade or DFA him and I think you have to do it soon. By the way, great original post and great title. Should be in the running for post of the month!

I hear you on Lewis but I think the plan is to keep him in the IF after getting hurt in CF last year. It is an interesting thought though - put Lewis in CF every day and have Castro or Miranda play 3B. Also opens up the possibility of trading for Jamier Candelario who's reportedly available. Still, I have to think Lewis will stay at 3B.

To me the big question is if and when we are going to move on from non-hitting veterans and take our chances with non-established players. The obvious issues are Kepler and Taylor. Kepler should be on the bench most nights (or dealt) in favor of Larnach or Wallner. They might not be better initially but it would be hard for them to be worse at the plate. I think it's worth the defensive downgrade (although lately Max's defense hasn't been very good) for the potential offensive upgrade. While Taylor is a little tougher due to no obvious replacement with Gordon out, I would play Castro in CF 3-4 days a week with Taylor as a part time player/defensive late inning sub. This is all assuming Buxton isn't going to play CF which is the better solution. I think those tweaks would help, but let's face it - this team will be better on offense when and IF Correa, Buxton, and Polanco hit like they have in the past and at least 2 of Kirilloff, Lewis, Castro and Miranda hit like MIranda hit last year or better. If these things don't happen, we're in trouble. There ain't nobody else coming to the rescue.

Would it help to play him in LF instead of CF, and move Castro/Gallo to CF? Yes, that hurts the defense in CF while improving it in LF but should help the offense. Taylor can be a defensive replacement. My thought is fewer chances in LF, fewer chances for injury., and more important to improv the offends that maintain the defense.

I think I understand the logic although not sure I agree with pulling Ober. Ober pitched 108 innings last season after pitching only 72 innings in 2022 and 108 in 2021 (both include MLB and MiLB). The general thinking to avoid catastrophic injury is to manage innings such that you only ramp up 20% a year. That would get Ober to 125-130 innings. We should be thrilled to get 140-150 innings from him this year. Saving a few bullets (innings) here and there may translate into 2-3 more starts in those 140-150 innings. Still, I would like to have seen him start the 7th last night. Let's find those saved innings in games where we're 2-3 runs ahead or behind, not a scoreless game with our primary divisional rival. I agree with the theory, disagree with last night's application of that theory.

I'm not a big Kepler fan at all - guy can't hit well enough for a corner OF - but I do think he would have a very valuable role on the Twins if used differently. He shouldn't be an every day player. He should be the classic 4th OF playing 2-4 times a week, INCLUDING in CF. I'd love to see him right now in a CF platoon with MAT. He should never hit higher than 7th in the order when he does play. The real problem is that Rocco likes to play him every day, won't play him in CF, and hits him too high in the order. That magnifies his weaknesses - hitting, particularly against LH pitching - and minimizes his real strength - Defense. Bottom line is the reason I think Kepler probably should be traded is that Rocco won't use him properly. It's a tough choice but I think that it's better that Kepler would be gone and those innings and ABs go to a combination of Wallner, Larnach, and Castro, rather than using Kepler as an every day OF hitting in the top 6 spots in the order.