Linus

I think it’s complicated. Data is pretty clear that walks and power correlate to scoring the most runs. So the Twins clearly try to work counts and try to do damage when they get a pitch they are looking for. They are literally looking for a certain pitch in a certain spot and are using this prepared game plan to know what that pitch should be. They use this approach even with two strikes. Sounds good. Now here are the practical realities of this approach. As you work the count a game of chicken begins: the closer you get to a walk the closer you get to a strikeout. The more strikes you have against you the more your batting average plummets. If you don’t walk but you don’t get your pitch you strike out looking. If you don’t walk but get your pitch and swing and miss you strike out swinging. Doing damage in modern baseball means yanking it to the pull side which leaves you vulnerable to pitches on the outside part of the plate. In consideration of all of these factors what you get is an approach where the success rate is going to vary highly which we clearly see. Within a game it might be acceptable- as long as it works a couple of times you are likely to put up crooked numbers. What we see is the variability stretches across games and series leaving us with games where we literally have no chance to win. I think this is the reason Rocco pinch hits so early in games. This style is predicated on getting a couple of ripe chances a game and putting up all the runs needed in those couple chances. Two last thoughts- I’ve always believed the old adage that in the big leagues you are likely to get only one good pitch to hit in an at bat. If that pitch comes in the early part of the at bat and isn’t one the scouting report says to look for it is taken for a strike and the at bat is likely lost. We see this all the time and is what is eating Julien up right now. Second thought is that the strict adherence to the game plan has essentially turned our lineup into guess hitters. Not long ago that was a derogatory term for someone who had lost bat speed and had to guess to get the bat to the zone on time. End result is that you end up with very little ability to adapt to something unexpected. This would also be a big reason why they don’t go the other way anymore. They can’t adapt to a pitch on the outside part of the plate that they aren’t looking for so they just don’t swing at it and hope it gets called a ball. If it’s a strike they just go sit down. People smarter than me figure this stuff out so I’m sure there are several layers of nuance to it but the basic premise and its outcomes (good and bad) are what we see every game.

You nailed it. I would qualify coaching staff to be hitting approach.

Lucas - thanks for these articles. Just so helpful to get science based info. Is manual manipulation of the disk part of the therapy?

Just hope Pablo is ok. 91 mph fastball at the end doesn’t sound good.

Good start by Paddack. Which is really important given the lack of depth in the starting rotation.

Yea well no kidding.

Henriquez with almost 40 pitches. The Uber to take him to St Paul is idling outside Target Field.

I love Varland but he isn’t going to be a good starter. His secondary pitches aren’t good enough. When he was in the pen he threw his cutter harder and it was really good. Now they have to keep him as a starter because they have no starter depth at all. What a fiasco of an off season.

Write ups like this a very interesting but almost always focus on offensive potential. What are his fielding attributes? Is this another Twins draft pick that is all bat and no glove?

We burned through the bullpen depth in a hurry.

As I’ve posted several times before TK had it right in that you need 1000 to 1500 at bats before you really know what you have in a hitter. He has one good half season with a 371 babip. The book is out on the guy as pitchers are going right after him which is why his walk rate is down and SO rate is up. Unless and until he makes an adjustment back it ain’t gonna be pretty.

I kind of liked groves. My cartoon bubble had a bunch of us TDers sneaking of of some orange trees ready to pounce.

You are correct in that he had a down year in the final year of his contract. However there is no universe in which he would not have been extended a qualifying offer. So they could have had an extra year and a half of Berríos and a supplemental pick.

Nope. And they haven’t been watching for several years. The age demographics on people watching MLB are pretty scary - it’s a bunch of people over 50. And of course MLB in its infinite wisdom makes it really hard for any person in their 20s and 30s to watch. So 20 years from now - good luck.

Guys like Martin and Miranda showing enough that next year we won’t have to do Margot, Santana et Al. Would be nice if Camargo got a chance and ran with it.

Even when they are hitting it’s not that fun to watch. And that’s not just the Twins. The product as a whole is less fun to watch - it’s no mystery why younger people have no interest in baseball.

I get what they are trying to do. The data is pretty clear: a combo of walks and power produce the most runs. The aspect of this that doesn’t get discussed much is the volatility of this approach. In a three game series you might score 9, 3 and two runs with this approach. That’s 14 runs which seems like a sufficient amount. Reality is you are going to lose two of those games. The trick is to have an offense that can generate consistent output on a game by game basis.

They are pursuing an organizational hitting philosophy. You can change the coaches but it’s likely not going to matter. Until the organization pursues a different philosophy I’m afraid this is it. If the turnaround last year was really attributable to the soft schedule they have then things do look a little bleak.

I watch nearly every game. People have created this feel good scale for Julien and his fielding. He was so bad at the beginning that people are very excited when he makes a couple plays. He has a habit of making mistakes at crucial times. His arm is erratic and has hard hands. His work around the bag on DP is poor whether he is turning it or feeding it. It’s little things that add up: the other night his feed to Castro is off time and high. Castro has to double clutch and the hitter is safe at first. When he is turning the DP he stabs at the ball separating his hands meaning he’s slow to get the throw off. Oh and he is hitting 167 with a 637 OPS. He deserves to go to AAA as much as Wallner maybe more so.

I’m hoping for the best but unless he learns how to hit something other than a fastball he is likely done. It’s a story as old as baseball. Abner Doubleday put 108 stitches on a baseball and some guys have struggled hitting those darn breaking pitches ever since.

I have no problem saying that For 2024 Polanco would be better than Julien. He’s a better fielder and I believe he will put up as good or better offensive numbers while hitting righties and lefties. Julien had a good half season with a sky high babip. It would come as no surprise if he regresses pretty hard.

In an offseason of head scratching moves bringing Farmer back and not using him as the backup SS is right up there. The only value he really offered was the ability to cover SS and now he can’t? Tell you what - you can have Farmer and Santana and I will take Polanco.

And we are excited about Larnach taking his place? Not me. At this point I would put Martin in left and see if he can provide a little spark.

I think I entered the Twilight Zone. Like the rest of the team Julien isn’t hitting and his fielding is still a work in progress. If he continues improving he might get to average. The Julien love is starting to get irrational.

So I started keeping track last year of all games that were played fundamentally sound in the field. I gave up after a month or so because it was so rare. Same thing this year. When they play a clean fundamental game it is noteworthy because it doesn’t happen often. People seem to dismiss it as being old school but over the course of 162 games this level of sloppiness is going to cost a team a half a dozen games. When it comes to the playoffs that is huge. Of all the stuff that people complain about regarding Rocco (bullpen usage, pinch hitting, lineups) this is the thing that people should be pissed about.