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Nashvilletwin

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Everything posted by Nashvilletwin

  1. Nashvilletwin
    I’m sorry, but that is not only not the case, but it is also irrelevant. Correa is a fine fielder. And has been a decent hitter. But we still do not know how Lee will develop in both disciplines. But the true point is: for the Minnesota Twins is Correa’s marginal outperformance in one or both of these areas worth $30MM? Sorry, I just don’t think so when that $30MM is the difference between a true legit #1 starter and a hopeful #5.
  2. Nashvilletwin
    Are the Twins truly a contender? Seriously, are they? With their current starting staff are they among the favorites to win it all this year. Or is “they should win the Central and then anything can happen” good enough? I didn’t mean to touch the third rail this morning by suggesting that Correa would be my trade candidate (I mean, it’s not like I’m suggesting cutting social security). My point is only that in a value/$ environment -which is where our beloved Twins live - he is a bit of an outlier and not in a positive sense.
  3. Nashvilletwin
    I’d appreciate if one of our fellow TDers who knows where to get the defensive metrics data could post where Correa was ranked as a SS in 2023. I genuinely would like to know.
  4. Nashvilletwin
    Yes, I would trade Correa if possible. But that probably won’t be advisable nor feasible until next season based on his performance in ‘24. My point is that in this revenue environment, the Twins have to be all about value produced per dollar spent. Your points about Correa’s arm and glove are noted (although I’m not sure the actually data backs up your claims as much as you seem to imply) But it very well could be that in 2025 an infield of Lewis at 3rd, Noah Miller (minor league gold glove at SS - which is saying a lot), and Lee at 2B - all on league minimum - is superior to keeping Correa at SS spending $30MM+ for him. That $30MM is HUGE for the Twins and could be applied in a much more efficient way instead of on a little above average fielding but middling hitting shortstop who is possibly close to being replaceable at a 1/30th the cost. For the Twins to maximize their ability to truly contend every year (i.e. not just go all in one season), it’s all about value produced per dollar spent. You must see that.
  5. Nashvilletwin
    Do not trade Lee. In as few as six months he very likely will be our best hitting and fielding SS for 1/30th of the cost of our current SS. He is the ideal player for a small/mid-market franchise like the Twins - fringe All-Star capability at low price and controllable over a half decade. These are exactly the types of players the Twins need to compete on year in and year out basis. Want to trade a “big’ name to bring back a top starter to replace Gray? The ideal trade candidate is actually Correa. He’s the overpriced, declining player who can be easily replaced by a better, cheaper emerging talent. However, we all know that won’t happen because a) his value isn’t worth his deal (which we could partially solve by paying some of his salary) and b) that would be a lot to ask of the FO after their “coup” FA signing of him. My hope is that he has a great year in 2024 and he becomes movable after that.
  6. Nashvilletwin
    No doubt - those are our top five. Buxton appropriately not on the top 20 list, but if he were to regain 120 or so game health, he surely would be added. Would we be upset if we were to wake up on the trade deadline in ‘25 and our 13 position players on the active roster were: Starters: Lewis (3B), Correa (SS), Lee (2B), Julien (1B), Jeffers (C), Jenkins (CF), Rodriguez (LF), Wallner (RF), Buxton (DH) Bench: Camargo, and choose three of Martin, Kiriloff, Severino, Miller, Schobel, Miranda, Larnach, an additional FA, etc. Is this where a true multi-year open window could begin for a cash constrained mid/small market team (coming off two straight division titles in ‘23 and ‘24)?
  7. Nashvilletwin
    Nick, the rankings are very solid. Well done. I’m torn on Correa. Undoubtedly, he was a huge contributor this past year. However, going forward he looks to be a very poor value, particularly given our cash constraints. It’s quite possible by the middle to end of 2024, Brooks Lee will already be the better all around SS with the gap only widening from there - and for 1/30th the cost. Hope I’m wrong, but this is probably Correa’s last year in the top 10 on your annual list and, like Buxton now, he’s probably completely off the list after the ‘25 season.
  8. Nashvilletwin
    Top 5 in order from #5-#1 are: 5. Jeffers 4. Lee 3. Jenkins 2. Lopez 1. Lewis
  9. Nashvilletwin
    As we have recently seen, the Dodgers have a far greater capacity (i.e. financial) to overcome blatant mistakes in their trading activities than the Twins. To compete, the Twins must simply be better than their more cash-rich foes in many areas - and trade results is certainly one.
  10. Nashvilletwin
    100% correct on all fronts: every $ counts this year, Theilbar is not sacrosanct, and lots of kids need lots of innings. Happy New Year fellow TDers.
  11. Nashvilletwin
    Harper Shmarper. Roy Hobbs is what we’re talking about here. Just keep him away from psycho ladies on trains….Oh, and slippery ice as well (Lewis). Seriously, give the kid two years to develop and, if all goes well, pencil him in for a decade as the Twins’ CFer. A career somewhere between Kirby and Torii would be outstanding, but closer to, or even above, Kirby is possible. Hopefully he will be entertaining me and my grandchildren in a Twins uniform for some time.
  12. Nashvilletwin
    It could be the FO believes the plan for CF in 2024 is already settled. Barring some major new developments on the Buxton health front, it appears the FO is settled on some combo of Buxton, Castro, Gordon, and Martin in CF. In any event, any trade for a CF is way on the back burner and probably won’t be considered until the SP is addressed. Any capital we have to trade will be kept until we see if we can acquire at least one additional starter. Even then, RP and 1B may be higher priorities.
  13. Nashvilletwin
    Nick, this article is very much appreciated because it correctly identifies where the Twins, as an organization overall and as coaching staff specifically, must systematically and substantially improve: namely, the transitioning and continuous improvement of bonafide prospects into legitimate, multi year major leaguers commensurate with their talent and potential. Given the current state of the financial characteristics of the league, certainly more illuminated by the recent spending spree of the Dodgers and the consequences of declining TV revenues for multiple clubs, the ability for a small to mid-market to team to more fully capitalize on their cheap, controllable homegrown talent becomes even more paramount for any chance of success. Ownership should take the necessary steps to ensure their FO and coaching staff are focused on (and ultimately rewarded or penalised for) delivering the ongoing development of our young talent from call up through multiple seasons thereafter. Of all the potential areas for Rocco and his staff to provide truly differentiated value add, this is the single most important and one of the top criteria on which they should be evaluated.
  14. Nashvilletwin
    It’s going to be close for a first ballot induction. Some voters are either just prickly about the aura of being a first - time inductee or just plain have other issues (like the fool he kept Joe from being the unanimous MVP). Now, if Joe hadn’t been robbed of the Gold Glove at 1B which he most assuredly deserved, it would be a lay up. Merry Christmas to all my fellow TDers.
  15. Nashvilletwin
    How about Polanco and Vasquez for Swanson and Manoah? Essentially, that’s a Polanco for Swanson swap and a Vasquez (and his full salary relief) for Manoah (a flyer starter). We take the $20MM in savings and get the best FA starter we can afford. In this scenario we solve our two biggest needs (a quality SP plus solid proven big league bullpen depth/length) while losing a somewhat redundant infielder and a poor value/dollar backup catcher (albeit, both Polanco and Vasquez are really, really good baseball players). We also get a Twins staple starting pitcher home improvement project in Manoah. And we keep our best prospects and Kepler and Farmer until the all-star break.
  16. Nashvilletwin
    Actually Cody, this might also fairly represent our 2026 lineup as well. So who’s on the bench? Camargo, Noah Miller, Martin, and possibly Kiriloff would offer a good mix of defensive prowess, positional flexibility, power, OBP, and speed. Buxton and Correa would be the weakest links and probably still the most expensive. Assuming reasonable health, some close iteration of this lineup should be our core from ‘26-‘28/‘29. As long as the young players continue to develop and improve once they make the bigs, there is no reason this core cannot contend for multiple pennants. There’s simply enough overall talent, top skill base mix, and affordability that is ideal for our mid-market Twins. Let’s hope the FO doesn’t screw things up too much and Rocco and his staff keep the player development happening.
  17. Nashvilletwin
    On the TD we tend to avoid personal attacks, and when such attacks occasionally and sadly show up, they tend to be related to a difference of opinion regarding one’s baseball acumen. Seriously, TD owners and managers, one of the best attributes of the TD community is that politics are left at the door and baseball is the pure focus. There is so much vitriol in the world, do we really need to bring political vitriol into this community? One would think disagreements about trading Kepler or the FO’s trade record would be enough. There are other sites we can all visit to participate in political commentary and divisiveness.
  18. Nashvilletwin
    Doc, you make some very valid points. The most important of which is that Minnesota Twins baseball, as a business, operates in a mature, if not declining, market place. MLB baseball in Minnesota is not a growth business. Eyeballs are harder to attract, the core fan base is aging out and not being replaced, TV revenues are going down and will not be coming back, and there is only so much blood you can squeeze from the turnips via ticket prices and concessions. All of us fans, especially those who want the Pohlads to spend crazily, have to keep this in mind. The key, as in any business facing slow or negative growth, is to see how you can eke out marginal gains here and there. You have a lot of good ideas. It’s a tough spot to be in. Honestly, if I were an owner, and received less marginal benefit from the “prestige” of owning a team than others, I’d be selling. There are better places to grow a couple billion if ego is not the gating factor. Btw, it’s just not baseball. The PGA is very similar. TV revs stagnating, balking sponsors, aging fan base, mature market, and departing star talent - the PGA is in a world of hurt too. At least they woke up, hopefully not too late, and are trying to do a deal.
  19. Nashvilletwin
    This is a decent lineup - probably able to contend in a weak division, but certainly not expected to contend for a pennant. The biggest holes are: 1) middle of the rotation starter and 2) backend of the bullpen (two spots at least). The position player lineup, assuming a healthy enough Buxton playing 80 games in CF and 40 games at DH, is actually solid. The conundrum, given payroll targets, is that we will likely need to change the position player lineup (i.e. by trading Polanco, Kepler, and/or Farmer) in order to fill some or all of the pitching holes identified above. The good news: if Lee and Martin were ready, that would not be a problem. The bad news: that is likely not yet the case and the info necessary to make that judgment won’t be available until at the end of spring training at the earliest and by the All Star break at the latest.
  20. Nashvilletwin
    With apologies to Tom Hanks as Captain Miller in Saving Private Ryan: “TDers, pay attention. This is the way to gripe. Continue Masterson.”
  21. Nashvilletwin
    I agree - it’s time to see what we have in Martin at the MLB level. If that is not the plan, then we owe it to him to trade him so he can get his chance (after all, we blew up his swing and decreased his value). He’s a really good baseball player and could be more than just a utility player (especially if we move all or some of Polanco, Kepler and Farmer), Our FO gets a lot of credit, and deservedly, for how the Lopez-Arraez deal played out in year one. However, their other two “big” headliner trades (the Mahle and Berrios deals) do not look good at all. Give Martin his chance and try to save some face (not that anyone is giving up on SWR, but there is a long way to go there).
  22. Nashvilletwin
    Well, I guess that’s why there are markets. Seriously though, any truly good CEO or company understand their true competitive advantage, or lack thereof. This is no more than the Padres coming to their senses and realising how they need to compete.
  23. Nashvilletwin
    Excellent analysis. I guess if I had to choose, I’d take the four Yankee pitchers over the comparable four Twins pitchers (even though Jax is the most proven of them all). Regardless, this is how a mid market franchise rebuilds - trade the unsignable FA to be for between 2-4 starters/relievers who will be on your roster for five years at minimal cost. Not stupid at all. If I’m a Padres fan, this trade is a post 2024 win and a future building move that can be supported.
  24. Nashvilletwin
    Yankees picked up three outfielders in the past 24 hours - two starters (Soto in right; Verdugo moves to left) and the go to back up fielding specialist (Grisham). Lost 3 young pitchers who started games (and were more than decent) for them this season, a very promising AA arm, and their 1/2 time catcher. Padres shed payroll, would never have resigned Soto next year any way, and pick up four solid, cheap controllable starting pitching options. This is a classic example of why teams like the Twins need to develop internally and transition their prospects into solid major leaguers. All four of the pitchers the Yankees gave up would have been darlings of all of us here on the TD. The Yankees couldn’t care less. Go all in this year and then buy what they need and replenish the next.
  25. Nashvilletwin
    Finding Gray’s replacement (Paddack is Maeda’s replacement) and Buxton’s health are the two most impactful, game/season changing off season factors for 2024. Here are a few more reasons Buxton’s health is so critical: 1. In a reduced payroll environment, $/production is key. Getting production out of our 2nd highest paid player is critical. 2. Along those same lines, BB in CF means no additional $’s need be spent to solve that issue. Castro, Gordon and Martin can cover all the games BB cannot play. 3. Having the extra D and bat from BB provides more flexibility re trading Kepler - if desired/need be. An outfield of BB, Kepler and Wallner would be really strong both offensively and defensively. But if Kepler had to be moved, our backup CF options plus Larnach and even Kiriloff could play LF. 4. Buxton in CF means no more discussion about moving Lewis there (not that is even being considered).
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