Nashvilletwin

Yeah, there’s no place for a player like Arraez on the Twins. I mean, we’d much rather have Kiriloff at 1B. And having a 0.400 OBP is not good enough to compete with our current DH candidates. Besides, he strikes out way less often than what we expect from our hitters. Even though we wouldn’t expect him to play 2B, even as a temporary fill in he’d be way too much of a liability to merit having his bat in the lineup at all. Besides, he’s really only a platoon player at this point. The fact that the fans love him doesn’t matter at all as well. We really should have a sarcasm font on the TD. If we could acquire Arraez for a couple of ok prospects (think Schobel types) and throw in one or two Miranda or Larnach types, we should do it in a nanosecond. Polanco or Arraez? Please, it’s not even close - on virtually every metric. Kiriloff vs. Arraez? Are you kidding? Just on likely innings to be played, Arraez might play more than both of them combined. Neither can hold his jock at the plate. Imagine Julien and Arraez leading off against a right handed starter - the pitcher might be looking at his 21st pitch and at least one man on base before getting to our #3 hitter. Also, Arraez is a spark plug. He is an igniter. He shows up in Miami and the Marlins make the playoffs. No correlation there. I get it’s not going to happen But to pretend he is not a fit for this team, or there’s no room for him as a Twin, or he’s not a good enough hitter or fielder to play 1B and DH instead of Kiriloff (or Polanco or anyone else we currently are contemplating for those roles) is ridiculous.

You, like me, must be one of the TDers who think Arraez is really good. Given how last year around this time a fair number of us could only talk about how bad his knees are, he couldn’t play 2B because he’s such a liability, he has no power so 1B was out, as a singles hitter he was I’ll suited to just being a dh and besides Buxton needed those ABs, etc. etc., I just figured 3x$12 would be plenty, if not generous. Lol Guess I was wrong - Arraez is actually good and valued. Another example of the age old game of “Which Is It” on the TD. Of course, that’s why the TD is so much fun.

Offer him a 3x$12MM extension. Trade Kepler and Polanco for pitching prospects. Net cost over three years is essentially zero. Kepler and Polanco will be gone anyway - probably no later than the trade deadline anyway but certainly by next year.

Seriously: 1. Arraez L (DH) 2. Lee SW (2B) 3. Julien L (1B) 4. Lewis R (3B) 5. Kepler L (RF) 6. Buxton R (CF) 7. Wallner L (LF) 8. Jeffers R (C) 9. Correa R (SS) Bench: Vasquez plus three of Castro, Kiriloff, Martin, Farmer, Gordon, Larnach, and Miranda. Trade Polanco. Or keep Polanco until Lee is ready and have Polanco be in the 1B/2B/DH interchange with Arraez and Julien. In this case, we could trade Kepler and move Wallner to RF and play Kiriloff in LF. This would be one fun lineup to watch - I wouldn’t leave the TV for any Twins AB.

Wait a second. Is it possible we could first get Lopez and then also get Arraez back? Is our FO playing some sort of 3D chess that we’ve never seen before? Does the FO envision a future 2B, 1B, DH interchangeable combination of Lee, Julien and Arraez batting in the first three spots in the order? And by moving either Kepler or Polanco (let alone both) we could easily afford to get Arraez back? And given the Marlins salary issues, we could probably pick Arraez back up for a couple of mid level prospects? Oh, and does Arraez love it in Minnesota and do Twins fans love Arraez? Alas, we could only dream…

Many were on board in real time And many of us weren’t. That’s ok though - I hated the Arraez - Lopez deal and that worked out. Very rarely are we always right - just like the FO.

No need to defend yourself. Standing pat for the most part, if not completely, is certainly an option. You have that correct. We as a fan base are clamouring for the “Gray Replacement”. Well, we don’t have cash to get that done through FA and it’s very possible the FO likes our top prospect capital enough on the mound that they don’t feel like trading our top prospects in the field. What if they think the team is in a strong enough position this season (and, yes, that may even include to a large degree keeping Kepler, Polanco, Farmer and Vasquez) to win the division and to see what happens in the post season? In fact, so much so they aren’t willing to move Lee, Julien or Lewis to sacrifice what could be a huge open window starting in 2025 when these prospects start hitting and our rotation could be stellar with whom we already have in the system. Just maybe the FO is willing to “sacrifice” some upside this year to let their cheaper, longer term open window roster gestate for a season. We as fans tend to always look at just the season ahead of us as opposed to letting the better tasting cake bake a bit longer. Patience is sometimes the best course - and it could the overall strategy the FO has mapped out more or less for this season. And yes, it’s a reasonable strategy.

Agree 100%. He should be a strong defender. My original comment was a bit sarcastic (I apologise for that - not very Minnesota Nice of me) as a number of posters yesterday concurred with the opposite sentiment. I’m looking forward to seeing Lee in a Twins uniform for many years to come.

“He’s a strong fielder no matter where the Twins put him, and while the ceiling may not be an MVP talent, he will be a regular for a long time.” On a thread yesterday, there seemed to be much agreement (not from me) that Lee would never amount to much as a fielding SS (certainly not even close to as strong as our 20th ranked fielding SS in 2023). Is the thought that “no matter where the Twins put him” refers only to 3B, 2B, 1B and/or corner OF? I’m assuming no one thinks C or CF are really options. For the record, I agree with the author’s assessment - Lee is going to be a solid regular for many years with All Star potential and that includes at SS if and when that time comes. I’ll take Lee in terms of number of future All Star appearances vs. our current SS (and for the record, I really, really like our current SS - he’s a great baseball player).

The gist of Nick’s post was about replacing quality players. This year the player we would most like to replace is Gray. We are not trading Correa - for several reasons. However, fact of the matter is that the Twins for whatever reason (TV revs, Pohlad penury, etc.) are capital constrained. We signed Correa to a huge deal north of $30MM per year. It’s been suggested in the thread that Correa is a “superstar” SS. I disagree. I think Correa is an incredibly gifted ballplayer. But based on his performance, both in the field and at the plate, I just don’t see him as a “superstar” worthy of $30MM. I dare say there isn’t much press about what a screaming deal we have with Correa. There just isn’t. The marketplace speaks and there probably isn’t a single TDer who believes another team would sign Correa to the same deal now. It’s also been suggested that Lee is a marginal MLB SS prospect. I again disagree. He’s a consensus top 20 prospect. Will he ever be as gifted in the field or at the plate as Correa has been or might be in the future? We don’t know that now - no matter what people write. Remember the scene from Moneyball when Billy Beane tells David Justice that the A’s are paying him for the ballplayer he is today - not what he was. We need to compare five years of Correa AT HIS COST to five years of Lee AT HIS COST. Is there $145MM of added value to the capital constrained Twins from Correa over Lee? There absolutely is a decent probability that within a couple of years Lee is a better producer in the field and at the plate than Correa - for 1/30th the cost. So, if our payroll is fixed would you rather have a) 5 more years of Correa plus no replacement for Gray; b) Correa plus a controllable cheap projectable starter (remember our payroll is fixed) acquired by trading Lee; or c) Farmer and Lee at SS this season plus a top reliable FA pitcher (Snell?). For the future of this team, I’d take c first. And for my fellow TDers who don’t think there is much difference between a top tier free agent starter and Louie Varland (whom I love btw), then the thinking must be there is no reason to replace Gray anyway - we already have his replacement in Varland. i wish things were different and that our favorite team had unlimited payroll like the Dodgers, Yankees and Mets. But we don’t. That’s the reality. And given that reality, the question of production per dollar is paramount to how our roster is constructed. I think most of our fellow TDers understand that. So my point about Correa was simply to compare different roster construction possibilities given very definitive payroll constraints. But it’s moot - he’s not going anywhere.

Who cares? Is that arm strength or a little softer glove worth $30MM? Could be if you’re the Dodgers. It isn’t IMHO if you’re Twins. Just my opinion.

I’m sorry, but that is not only not the case, but it is also irrelevant. Correa is a fine fielder. And has been a decent hitter. But we still do not know how Lee will develop in both disciplines. But the true point is: for the Minnesota Twins is Correa’s marginal outperformance in one or both of these areas worth $30MM? Sorry, I just don’t think so when that $30MM is the difference between a true legit #1 starter and a hopeful #5.

Are the Twins truly a contender? Seriously, are they? With their current starting staff are they among the favorites to win it all this year. Or is “they should win the Central and then anything can happen” good enough? I didn’t mean to touch the third rail this morning by suggesting that Correa would be my trade candidate (I mean, it’s not like I’m suggesting cutting social security). My point is only that in a value/$ environment -which is where our beloved Twins live - he is a bit of an outlier and not in a positive sense.

I’d appreciate if one of our fellow TDers who knows where to get the defensive metrics data could post where Correa was ranked as a SS in 2023. I genuinely would like to know.

Yes, I would trade Correa if possible. But that probably won’t be advisable nor feasible until next season based on his performance in ‘24. My point is that in this revenue environment, the Twins have to be all about value produced per dollar spent. Your points about Correa’s arm and glove are noted (although I’m not sure the actually data backs up your claims as much as you seem to imply) But it very well could be that in 2025 an infield of Lewis at 3rd, Noah Miller (minor league gold glove at SS - which is saying a lot), and Lee at 2B - all on league minimum - is superior to keeping Correa at SS spending $30MM+ for him. That $30MM is HUGE for the Twins and could be applied in a much more efficient way instead of on a little above average fielding but middling hitting shortstop who is possibly close to being replaceable at a 1/30th the cost. For the Twins to maximize their ability to truly contend every year (i.e. not just go all in one season), it’s all about value produced per dollar spent. You must see that.

Do not trade Lee. In as few as six months he very likely will be our best hitting and fielding SS for 1/30th of the cost of our current SS. He is the ideal player for a small/mid-market franchise like the Twins - fringe All-Star capability at low price and controllable over a half decade. These are exactly the types of players the Twins need to compete on year in and year out basis. Want to trade a “big’ name to bring back a top starter to replace Gray? The ideal trade candidate is actually Correa. He’s the overpriced, declining player who can be easily replaced by a better, cheaper emerging talent. However, we all know that won’t happen because a) his value isn’t worth his deal (which we could partially solve by paying some of his salary) and b) that would be a lot to ask of the FO after their “coup” FA signing of him. My hope is that he has a great year in 2024 and he becomes movable after that.

No doubt - those are our top five. Buxton appropriately not on the top 20 list, but if he were to regain 120 or so game health, he surely would be added. Would we be upset if we were to wake up on the trade deadline in ‘25 and our 13 position players on the active roster were: Starters: Lewis (3B), Correa (SS), Lee (2B), Julien (1B), Jeffers (C), Jenkins (CF), Rodriguez (LF), Wallner (RF), Buxton (DH) Bench: Camargo, and choose three of Martin, Kiriloff, Severino, Miller, Schobel, Miranda, Larnach, an additional FA, etc. Is this where a true multi-year open window could begin for a cash constrained mid/small market team (coming off two straight division titles in ‘23 and ‘24)?

Nick, the rankings are very solid. Well done. I’m torn on Correa. Undoubtedly, he was a huge contributor this past year. However, going forward he looks to be a very poor value, particularly given our cash constraints. It’s quite possible by the middle to end of 2024, Brooks Lee will already be the better all around SS with the gap only widening from there - and for 1/30th the cost. Hope I’m wrong, but this is probably Correa’s last year in the top 10 on your annual list and, like Buxton now, he’s probably completely off the list after the ‘25 season.

Top 5 in order from #5-#1 are: 5. Jeffers 4. Lee 3. Jenkins 2. Lopez 1. Lewis

As we have recently seen, the Dodgers have a far greater capacity (i.e. financial) to overcome blatant mistakes in their trading activities than the Twins. To compete, the Twins must simply be better than their more cash-rich foes in many areas - and trade results is certainly one.

100% correct on all fronts: every $ counts this year, Theilbar is not sacrosanct, and lots of kids need lots of innings. Happy New Year fellow TDers.

Harper Shmarper. Roy Hobbs is what we’re talking about here. Just keep him away from psycho ladies on trains….Oh, and slippery ice as well (Lewis). Seriously, give the kid two years to develop and, if all goes well, pencil him in for a decade as the Twins’ CFer. A career somewhere between Kirby and Torii would be outstanding, but closer to, or even above, Kirby is possible. Hopefully he will be entertaining me and my grandchildren in a Twins uniform for some time.

It could be the FO believes the plan for CF in 2024 is already settled. Barring some major new developments on the Buxton health front, it appears the FO is settled on some combo of Buxton, Castro, Gordon, and Martin in CF. In any event, any trade for a CF is way on the back burner and probably won’t be considered until the SP is addressed. Any capital we have to trade will be kept until we see if we can acquire at least one additional starter. Even then, RP and 1B may be higher priorities.

Nick, this article is very much appreciated because it correctly identifies where the Twins, as an organization overall and as coaching staff specifically, must systematically and substantially improve: namely, the transitioning and continuous improvement of bonafide prospects into legitimate, multi year major leaguers commensurate with their talent and potential. Given the current state of the financial characteristics of the league, certainly more illuminated by the recent spending spree of the Dodgers and the consequences of declining TV revenues for multiple clubs, the ability for a small to mid-market to team to more fully capitalize on their cheap, controllable homegrown talent becomes even more paramount for any chance of success. Ownership should take the necessary steps to ensure their FO and coaching staff are focused on (and ultimately rewarded or penalised for) delivering the ongoing development of our young talent from call up through multiple seasons thereafter. Of all the potential areas for Rocco and his staff to provide truly differentiated value add, this is the single most important and one of the top criteria on which they should be evaluated.

It’s going to be close for a first ballot induction. Some voters are either just prickly about the aura of being a first - time inductee or just plain have other issues (like the fool he kept Joe from being the unanimous MVP). Now, if Joe hadn’t been robbed of the Gold Glove at 1B which he most assuredly deserved, it would be a lay up. Merry Christmas to all my fellow TDers.