Nashvilletwin

That’s a great section in Jim Bouton’s baseball classic Ball Four where he describes the pre game pitchers’ meeting when his 1969 Seattle Pilots were going through the Twins lineup to decide how to pitch to each Twins batter. As I recall, when the meeting was over Bouton said they looked at the plan and they had eight “pitch arounds”. Pretty funny, but those ‘69 and ‘70 teams were stacked.

Agree 100% - there is one more open position player spot available on the roster. Assuming no injuries, there are three options for filling it (ranked in the order I personally prefer). 1. Bring in a new big bat player, likely a RH outfielder (ideally one who can play CF, but I still kinda like Soler). 2. Give the spot to Larnach or Martin - our two highest highest ranked OF call-up options. Larnach has MLB experience, but Martin bats RH, can play CF, can play non 1B IF too, has more speed, and has more options. If no one is added, this is the most likely main event battle of ST (with the last bullpen spot being the only other one). Martin seems more like a better fitting (and possibly better playing) Gordon. 3. Give the spot to an IFer - Miranda, Lee or (less likely) Severino. The roster already has seven IFers: Correa, Lewis, Julien, Kiriloff, Santana, Farmer and Castro (on an emergency basis). Adding another IF, even contemplating Kiriloff playing some OF, seems less likely. More likely, an injury, coupled with whomever is hottest during ST, will be the reason one of those three breaks camp with the big club.

Careful, with comments like your last sentence you are practically touching the third rail for a lot of our fellow TDers. You might be better off suggesting cutting social security. Of course, in a year or two you’d be absolutely correct if Lee becomes who we think he can be. By the end of ‘25, there is a high likelihood Lee is our best offensive and defensive (assuming Miller is still on the farm) shortstop. But trading CC will be hard because he has a no trade clause and we’d have to eat salary. Let’s just be grateful for CC’s outstanding play and leadership for the time being and see how things develop.

Boy, first an article about Buxton making the HOF and now a post that Lee might be the ROY. How about both players show up for work everyday, stay healthy, and put out 100% effort and then let’s see how things develop. I’m as excited about their prospects as the next guy, probably more, but, geez, talk about putting the cart before the horse….

Nick was the team MVP in the second half of 2022 when we desperately tried to stay in contention. He proved he could play more than adequately at the MLB level. The Twins did him a solid by moving him to the Marlins. Maybe he’ll get more playing time and a better opportunity to keep showing what he can do. Hey, it worked out great for Steer and CES. Good luck Nick - please say hello to my favorite ex- Twin who’s ABs I never missed. But let’s be frank - he was only moved because he hit left handed and had no options left. Given Gordon’s ability to play CF, if it had been Larnach who was out of options, Trevor would have been the one on the move.

Excellent trade for the Twins. I had thought that Gordon was going to have spring training to essentially audition for a new club. This trade eliminates any risk of a bad spring and reduced value. Love the deep bullpen strategy. It’s a big part of how small/mid-markets teams can compete in this day and age. A RH OF bat surely has to be coming. At the moment we really only have four OFs on the roster, plus three untested possible call-ups: Larnach (who is also LHed), Martin and Keirsey. Theoretically, Kiriloff could play corner OF as well. I wouldn’t rule out Soler still, may be on a two year deal with an opt out after one. CF depth would be Buxton, Castro, and Martin (awaiting call up in St. Paul). Corner depth is Kepler, Wallner and Soler (who can also DH).

I actually have Noah Miller pencilled in as one of utility infielders breaking camp with the varsity in 2026. Farmer will be gone. Correa will be two seasons older and may need a few more days off. By 2026, Miller will likely be the best defensive SS in our entire system. Lewis and Lee are ensconced at 3B and 2B, respectively. Julien and Severino will be our primary DH and 1B. Keaschall or Schobel plays the infield non SS utility role (and maybe some OF and pinch hitting as well). Miller is our primary SS backup and late inning defensive specialist. That could be one fine infield lineup in terms of defensive range and arm, on base, power, speed, flexibility, leadership, and, importantly, overall cost.

This list is precisely why we haven’t seen ERod or Rosario or Larnach or Martin or Kepler moved this off-season. Three of the five on the above 2026 top prospects list are outfielders. Assuming the timeline is correct, and given their ages it appears more than reasonable, it certainly seems likely we shouldn’t expect a lot out of the three in a meaningful way - both innings and production - until 2027. Ladies and gentlemen, we could have a bit of an outfielder gap in ‘25 and ‘26. Why? Buxton’s health, Wallner’s no sure thing, Kepler could leave, Castro’s and Gordon’s limited ceilings, Kiriloff’s everything and who really knows about Larnach, Martin, Rosario, and ERod at this point. A lot will happen in 2024 that will determine who will manning the outfield for the Twins as we wait for at least one or two of the listed 2026 prospects. The FO has been very smart this off-season about keeping their powder dry to see how things develop. That is why a Kepler extension cannot be ruled out (and perhaps part of the reason why payroll is down this year - who knows whom we might need to sign to play outfield for the next couple of seasons).

A lot of great comments and good ideas. But count me as one who thinks the FO this season is playing both for the short and long games as it relates to trades. Re this season, we actually have very little overall depth among position players. In the outfield, we have tons of question marks between Buxton’s health, Wallner’s sophomore season, and Kepler’s Jekyll and Hyde production. After that we have five mediocre/unproven players as backups: Castro, Gordon, Martin, Larnach, and Keirsey. That’s not much. Larnach stays for now - he’s likely to be needed. Non 1B infield is the same: our reserves are Farmer, Castro, Gordon and Lee. And catcher? Carmargo and Williams (not on the 40 man). 1B? Severino and Miranda. And remember, Gordon is out of options - so if he doesn’t stay with the big club, we’d probably lose him. The bench is shallow and unproven. Re the long game, the FO sees a remarkable opportunity opening up in a couple of years - namely, a team of young, productive, cheap players. They do not want to move any of their top six - eight prospects. After that, no one is close enough to the bigs and/or good enough to move the dial meaningfully to acquire a player who can help now. So it’s a short term FA (if the budget is there) or nothing at all from this point forward.

Well, for the longer term we have five outstanding to reasonable outfield prospects to go along with Wallner, Martin, and theoretically Larnach. It’s unlikely any of the five - Jenkins (19) ERod (21) Gabby (20) Winokur (19) and Rosario (21) - will break camp with the big club prior to 2026 at best due to level and age. Let’s see how things go this season - there’s a lot going on in our outfield between Buxton’s health, Wallner’s sophomore year, Kepler’s assumed last stint with the team, and uncertain innings for Castro, Gordon, Martin, and Larnach. We are definitely not long bankable outfield depth over the next two seasons. But if Wallner and ideally one of Martin, Larnach or Gordon turn out ok, we should be in great shape after that.

My vote is that he sticks around at least this year and possibly quite a bit longer in the Twins system. Why? 1. Being young for his level, his value should only rise as he gets more selective and proves his hitting tool. His trade value should be projected to rise even if he falls out of the top 100. 2. Our outfield depth is really not that great. We have three decent major league starters, but all three have big risks via their futures (Buxton - health, Kepler - won’t be here, Wallner - fully making the leap). After that, near term depth is a bit dicey with Castro, Gordon, Martin, Larnach, Keirsey, etc. It’s not clear that any one of them will ever be an above average MLB outfielder. So, Gabby fits in well with the next group of Jenkins, Rodríguez, Winokur and Rosario. It’s very possible that at least two of this group of five prospects will need to be starters in our outfield by 2026. 3. The Twins like to acquire players whom they think they can tweak to unlock a top tool. Gabby’s top tool - hitting - happens to be the most important one. The Twins are betting they can transform that tool into better hitting plus power. Gabby was specifically part of the Polanco trade for a reason: he has the potential to fill a critical role and perform at a top level on the varsity for many years after Polanco, Topa and DeSclafani are long gone.

A huge, huge goal/issue for the Twins organization to truly be World Series competitive year in and year out is developing their young talent to the most of their abilities. And that development, most importantly, 100% must continue, if not accelerate, upon being promoted to the big club. World Series can be won if players like Wallner, Julien, Lee, Lewis, Ryan, Ober, Varland and so many others nearly here or on the way reach their true potential. Coaches obviously play a critical role in that ongoing development. But so do other players. Our FO understands that. Culture, leadership, and ultimately young player development can be as much driven by veteran players as from the staff. The FO has assembled a strong group of vets capable and eager to show the young guys how to be a pro’s pro and build a tremendous career. CC, Farmer, BB, Santana, and Lopez all are players who show up everyday and do the big and little things to maximise potential. They are super examples and “in the foxhole” teachers for the young guys. From a “commercial” standpoint, it’s smart to pay bit extra for that: there is nothing that could possibly pay off more for a small/mid-market team like the Twins than to see their controllable, cheap talent play ball at their highest level as opposed to filling those positions and production with high priced FAs like other franchises attempt to do. Oh, and by the way, it works both ways. If the young guys are developing quickly and producing, the vets tend to catch that spark and produce at higher levels as well. We definitely saw some of that last season. So here’s hoping that CC and BB, in particular as our two highest paid players, catch a little of that spark and produce a bit more in terms of individual production this season. There is a lot to like about the FOs approach and this team’s makeup.

Agree 100%. Our overall outfield depth is not great. Thus, Gordon has a good chance to stick around a bit. If we run into a need, Kiriloff can be that fill-in outfielder. And if Severino starts smoking it, Kiriloff may find himself in that role more often than he probably would hope (but he’d still be in the show).

Balazovic couldn’t make it one more day. Sounds like the Twins are letting him move on to get another chance somewhere else. Good luck to him. With the 60 day opening tomorrow, it looks like there might be some room opening up on the 40 man if needed. Otherwise, the next addition to the roster would’ve meant some real meat would need to be cut (and, yes, given our limited MLB ready outfield depth, Gordon is still considered real meat).

Agreed. Up and comers like Festa, Raya, and Canterino - plus the other seven starter potentials in our top 20 - is why the FO hasn’t moved our top position players this off-season for a short term starter or spent big money for one in free agency. The FO definitely thinks we can win this season, but they have a much bigger open window in mind for the next several years ahead. And that window will be anchored by multiple low cost, controllable quality starters.

Love it. Festa will likely see multiple starts in 2024 as the number #7, #8 or #9 available starter (alongside SWR and eventually Canterino) in the organization. The injury risk/need for rest among our top six starters is just too high to think otherwise. So the experience he gains in those starts, plus the rest it might give to the staff, will be very valuable as he competes for a top five role in ‘25.

Kiriloff will be just fine if he produces. Santana is on a one year deal, so the long term job is there for the taking. Kiriloff should ultimately probably be more worried about Severino. In some respects, the second derivative of Santana showing up might be that it actually helps Kiriloff by taking some of the pressure off and giving him a chance to find his feet. Regardless, Kiriloff will get as many ABs this season as he deserves. Larnach and Miranda, sadly, are now (valuable from the FO’s perspective) AAA bench depth in case of injuries. It’s not clear where they even stand on that hierarchy of players considering their competition for promotions include Lee, Martin, Severino, Keirsey and maybe Bubba. If they’d like to see Target field again they’d better produce across the river. Both are probably dying to be traded to get a shot at playing every day in the bigs (ala Steer); unfortunately for them, the FO probably will struggle to find a deal that returns a valuable MLB proficient player to replace their important AAA depth role. They might be here a while. Gordon will get his chance in spring training. But, yes, more and more he looks like the odd man out. He won’t make it through waivers. I really like Gordon - he was the spark plug that led our 2nd half in 2022. However, it will be a surprise if he has not departed the organization by early May, if not before opening day. This spring training is important for him as it might essentially be his “tryout” for a major league job elsewhere.

This is the by far strongest and deepest pen we’ve had in a long, long time. On top of that, it’s incredibly cheap. Is it the best in the majors? Probably not per se. But it certainly has the potential to be a true upper echelon pen. And upper echelon pens win ball games. Here is idea I don’t see happening, but will throw it out there anyway. What about combining DeSclafani and Varland as the joint fifth starter seeing if they can pretty much go 8-9 innings as a pair in each start? This way Varland stays stretched out and we keep one of our best arms contributing meaningful major league innings all season long. That would leave seven members in the bullpen essentially covering the other four starters. It also puts a bit of a cap on the innings DeSclafani and Varland throw every fifth game, thereby keeping them a bit fresher for the season. If a starter goes down, then they each start their own games and a new reliever is called up.

Sorry for the partial double post above. Technical difficulties. Btw, is 2024 finally the year we get to see what we got for Berrios?

As things currently stand, Gordon has the last spot on the roster. That could change due to injury or trade (realistically Gordon is the only one with any real likelihood of getting moved before the season). Our “bench” in St. Paul currently consists of Lee, Larnach, Miranda, Martin, Severino, Keirsey, Thompson, and Camargo/Williams (C). Lee probably does not get the call unless there a more every day type role opens up. It’s not clear who gets the OF call first - Larnach or Martin. It might just depend on who’s hot and using up options. Just thinking about it a bit more; if Martin has the on base skills, the speed, and the super utility, he’s actually a great late inning matchup, “we need a guy on base” pinch hitter type.

As things currently stand, Gordon has the last spot on the roster. That could change due to injury or trade (realistically Gordon is the only one with any real likelihood of getting moved before the season). Our “bench” in St. Paul currently consists of Lee, Larnach, Miranda, Martin, Severino, Keirsey, Thompson, and Camargo/Williams (C). Lee probably does not get the call unless a more every day type role opens up. It’s not clear who gets the OF call first - Larnach or Martin. It might just depend on who’s hot and using up options.

Castro currently is a more proven commodity as a 4th OFer. Having said that, as a super utility player he, on paper, he is better suited for the role than Gordon for all the reasons you mentioned. However, Gordon had two attributes that Martin does not have: 1) big league experience and 2) he’s out of options. Let’s see what happens during spring training. It’s not the Twins MO to break camp with rookies like Martin or Lee. But, if Gordon gets traded or if there are any OF injuries or (I’d like to think at least) Martin has a scorching camp, we could see him sooner than later. Regardless, the young man is going to be 25 before opening day: it’s time we see him in the bigs! But it looks like he will still need to earn the call up across the river.

Agree, with the pipeline. It is looking deep and solid (not spectacular per se). I wonder though if there are any true #1s in the system at the moment besides Lopez who might show up by 2026? At the moment I think Ober (who if he throws 160+ innings this year may well be a really good #2) has the best shot. Maybe Raya? Re SWR, if he topped out as a reliable 180 inning 4.25 ERA #4 type from 2025 -2029 we should be ecstatic.

Let’s not go overboard on the sudden munificence of KC’s ownership. They have a big vote coming up on increased sales taxes to fund a new downtown stadium. Sound familiar? Witt=Mauer. It’s a business model that the small/mid market teams see fit to apply every 25 years or so. Nothing wrong with that - I’m glad the Twins did it; smart move.

Agree. Besides they need the votes to approve the sales tax increase for the stadium. So sign your homegrown young star to a long extension. It’s a great strategy that’s been proven to work - look at Mauer.