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Nashvilletwin

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Everything posted by Nashvilletwin

  1. Nashvilletwin
    Ted, we love your work, but this payroll stuff is just getting so old. Please, please would someone, anyone, show the actual data proving that a) there are major league owners consistently losing money on an annual operating basis and b) the Twins earn excessive operating margins/profits vis-a-vis the rest of the major league franchises. The reality is more than likely that the data would show the opposite. Seriously, would someone please prove just how penurious the Twins actually are relative to their annual operating profits and the other owners. I have no interest to carry any water for the Pohlads (yes, they are extremely wealthy and many TDers wish they would just spend willy nilly without a care in the world), but, until we see the actual data, could we just focus on enjoying the show and lay off the divisiveness?
  2. Nashvilletwin
    We TDers shouldn’t sleep on Helman. He’s a really good ballplayer who could prove to be a valuable backup this season. If he has a good spring, that might just inspire enough confidence that others theoretically ahead of him in the OF pecking order could be moved.
  3. Nashvilletwin
    There is a lot of solid thinking in this conjecture. And I agree with you that Lee and Julien are ahead of Kirilloff in terms of whom we’d prefer to keep long-term. Having said that, we still have a hole at DH against RHs (some TDers think Larnach is best suited for that role). Kiriloff can be that DH, play a corner OF and 1B. So Kirilloff trumps Larnach at this point. But if Lee does break camp with the big club then only one of Kiriloff, Larnach and Martin do as well without an injury. I could see Kiriloff staying as primary DH against righties and Larnach and Martin start in across the river. Or we trade Kiriloff as he’d have the most value of those three, but still not that much.
  4. Nashvilletwin
    Given our pen, I’d take 20-24 starts, an average of 5+ innings per start (125-135 innings) and an ERA of 4.00 from each of our #4-6 starters (Paddack, DeSclafani, and Varland). In those 65-70 starts, we could expect to play around 0.550 ball, or win about 37 games, at a minimum.
  5. Nashvilletwin
    Several advantages Martin brings to the team vis-a-vis Larnach when thinking about a late inning substitution role are: a) he bats rightie so he can spell Kepler, Wallner, Julien or Kiriloff (the last three being our weakest “splits” hitters against lefties by far); b) he doesn’t strike out, has a high on-base, and can get the ball in play (even on an off-speed pitch, lol) - so he has greater value as a pinch hitter; c) he has speed so he can pinch run too (or is just more valuable on the base paths) and probably has more range in the OF; and d) he can play multiple positions, including CF, LF, 2B, 3B, and SS. Larnach’s only advantages are a bit more power and prior MLB experience.
  6. Nashvilletwin
    Ok everbody, let’s look at these numbers. Let’s assume they are, or nearly are, correct. If so, a couple observations: 1. Only three teams lost money on an operating basis. Three. That’s it. So where are all the owners willing to lose money on an annual basis? 2. The three that did lose money all had less revenue than the Twins. Given the amount of relatively fixed costs needed to operate a franchise, it’s likely that they just didn’t have the revenues to cover the nugget. Having said that, possibly the Blue Jays were willing to lose money. 3. The Twins operating margin is a mere 5%. That’s pathetic for any reasonably run mature business. Are you really going to begrudge them that sort of margin? 4. But wait, how about some other small mid-market teams? The Rays, Reds, Tigers, White Sox, Brewers, Padres, A’s, Guardians and Rockies all made more profit than the Twins on close to or less revenue. Boy, their fans must be really livid - those gouger owners. TDers - it’s just a fallacy that some/most owners are willing to lose money on an annual operating basis year after year to win a championship for themselves or their communities.
  7. Nashvilletwin
    I wouldn’t if I were you. I’d cheer for the Brewers or Cardinals like you said. You have two good options; I’m sure their owners are better people than the Twins’.
  8. Nashvilletwin
    Perf! Go for it Roy! (Tin Cup reference).
  9. Nashvilletwin
    The world is full of these hypocrisies. Everywhere you look. But the sad truth is that there is a market for MLB franchises from municipalities. Can’t escape that. Too bad it’s not different. What did our late, great Happy Warrior, Hubert Humphrey, say? I think it was if the Twin Cities lost the Twins and Vikings, “we’d be a cold Omaha”.
  10. Nashvilletwin
    I’m not sure history supports that conclusion. But directionally, you are, of course, correct.
  11. Nashvilletwin
    Well, I certainly respect your frustration. It would be nice if the message from “The Nephew” were different. But it wasn’t. I guess your choices are to: a) make a bunch of money, buy the Twins and run the team your way; b) leave the Twins and pick a new team to follow that more aligns with your expectations of ownership (Mets or Dodgers might be a good place to start); or c) maybe try to change your attitude a little bit so you don’t find your long-term team so frustrating (because, well, that’s neither healthy nor fun). Personally, I’ve adopted c) a long time ago and am still working on a) - lol. In any event, we’d hate to lose you as a fellow TDer. But if that’s the case, best of luck to you.
  12. Nashvilletwin
    Let’s not get greedy. Assuming Lewis is our 3B going forward, the ultimate goal this season for Lee is to turn him into our starting 2B in 2025. Two things will be very helpful to accomplishing that: 1) he’s not rushed and 2) he gets the right mentorship when called up. So these points would support him starting in AAA to build his confidence, moving across the river when the inevitable injury occurs, and being exposed to/learning from Kyle Farmer. 2024 is the year Julien, Kiriloff and Severino audition for the starting 1B job in 2025. With Santana on a one year deal, it’s more than likely that one of those three is our 1BOTF.
  13. Nashvilletwin
    lol. Propagandist for the Pohlads. Hilarious. Trust me, I have no desire to carry any water for the Pohlad family. Were those deals not done at arms length? Do you not believe that the Twins have brought value to the Twins Cities/Minneapolis? Do you really think the Twins have bad owners? Again, the expectation from some is that owners should be blindly willing to spend in order to satisfy their egos and/or deliver a championship to their city. Sure, both those factors can be relevant, but it’s just not the same for an every owner. The Pohlads on the whole have been solid owners. The product they deliver has been overall good. The franchise is well run for the most part. Have the Mets done that much better? How about the Angels? Which AL Central team’s ownership would you swap for the Pohlads? How about the AL West, other than Texas? I have no idea what the annual cash flow or the operating margins of the Twins are - I’d wager that they are mostly positive but very lean. And they are lean for precisely the reasons you point out - they want to win and, yes, they want to deliver a championship to the Twins Cities. However, there should be no expectation that they, or anyone, should run a business at a annual loss - regardless of capital appreciation,
  14. Nashvilletwin
    Exactly my point - they shouldn’t have to. Ever. Thank you.
  15. Nashvilletwin
    Thank you for laying this all out. So next year costs go up and expected revenues go down. Some things might change around the edges, of course. But the directional gist is correct. Do my fellow TDers really think that our owners have some sort of civic duty to run the team at a cash loss year in and year out? Should they just be satisfied with capital appreciation and forget operating earnings/cash flow? Are we as fans not receiving a fairly consistent high level of baseball entertainment from our supposedly parsimonious owners? Sure, we don’t have Stevie Cohen as our owner or the revenues of the Dodgers or Yankees. But overall we are a pretty well run franchise that does most things the right way. I’ll take our level of entertainment and success over a lot of the rest of the league, including some bigger market teams.
  16. Nashvilletwin
    25 innings all in relief. 6.31 ERA. Headrick is hardly banging down the door as our “next up” starter over the first month of the season. Dobnak was hurt last season. Regardless, if either even makes the list it will come down to performance.
  17. Nashvilletwin
    Only until about May 1 or so - so basically Dobnak is #3 (behind Varland and SWR) on the list for about the first month. The others probably need a bit more time to get acclimated, etc. - but then I agree with you re Dobnak’s place in the theoretical hierarchy subject to performance.
  18. Nashvilletwin
    DeSclafani breaks camp as #5. In order, Varland, SWR and Dobnak get first crack at needed starts before May 1 or so (all have MLB experience) with Varland the clear first choice unless his performance is suffering. As the season progresses, Canterino, Headrick, and Festa could be added to the available to start list with the above three - the hot hand could get the nod. Lewis and Raya are longer shots to start unless their performance truly merits a call up. Around the deadline, an additional starter could be added if we are still contending and/or could be expected to make a real run for the pennant,
  19. Nashvilletwin
    FDG, I personally am on the complete other side of the fence on your take. I respect it, but I disagree. I’m quite excited about where this team is headed this season, way more than last season when the team was filled with a bunch of “one and dones”. We will be better than competitive, we have one of the top five projected pitching staffs in the majors (when were we last able to say that), and we get to see a bunch of young, exciting talent. The team will be good and the entertainment value high.
  20. Nashvilletwin
    Sorry Cody - I understand where you are coming from, but I disagree with much of it. First, you make is sound like the Twins’ ownership and FO are nefarious, duplicitous actors. That’s a pretty harsh take, even in this day and age where everything one reads is essentially a lie. The TV deal has been in flux for quite a while and the organization never held the right cards to be able to drive their preferred deal. The team has been very transparent about their payroll targets and a) as you point out, the roster costs are going up next year and b) this year is not done yet (perhaps there is some cash awaiting to be spent at the deadline). You cannot categorically say this projected lineup is worse than last year’s at this time. A healthy Buxton on its own might make this team better. There is no question our bullpen is significantly better and deeper. The jury is still out on how Paddock and DeSclafani will perform vs. Gray and Maeda, and Lopez, Ryan, Ober and Varland should all be better than where they were expected to be at this time last year. Sure, we lost the oft injured fan favorite in Polanco, but Julien and Wallner are way better than Larnach and Miranda. And let’s not forget how much better Jeffers is now. Last year’s season was saved by those three players. Let’s just see how it goes before condemning the team’s leadership this off-season.
  21. Nashvilletwin
    Actually, I think Buxton has reverse splits and Rocco wants his bat in the lineup. There’s a decent chance on the 50% of days he’s not starting in CF (and those days will always be against RHs) Buxton DHs about 1/2 the time. Castro gets those starts and Martin would be the logical choice to be the last player. But your point is an excellent one - we have a hole at DH against RHs. Let’s see how the FO solves it.
  22. Nashvilletwin
    That may be the case. But it still doesn’t mean what I wrote is incorrect - he’d probably (or should) bat 9th and he can’t hit an off speed pitch. I’d think Martin with a higher OBP and speed even as a right handed hitter might be a better option.
  23. Nashvilletwin
    Ted accurately describes the extent of our “bench” on the farm to be called up in case of injury (excluding Lee, of course). Not a bad set of choices, really. Each could have a case for the final spot. Another addition is probably the front runner. But in the event we stand pat, it will all come down to who performs best in ST and, to a lesser extent, Buxton’s health (in which case, the final spot must go to someone who can play CF). Miranda and Severino probably have the toughest path in any event. Sure wish we had Steer or CES in the role, but, alas, we gave them away for less than a bag of magic beans,
  24. Nashvilletwin
    Geez, I’d hope not. Our DH against righties (75% of starts) would bat 9th and can’t hit an off speed pitch? That would be a disaster.
  25. Nashvilletwin
    And maybe Yasser Mercedes too. But not Salas on the IF list.
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