Nashvilletwin
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Everything posted by Nashvilletwin
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Yep. The sooner the better for all of them: Miranda, Larnach, Julien, Martin, Lee, Wallner, Keaschall and ERod. Each of these “top”/promising prospects will be subject to the signing of a washed up vet as long as they are a Twin. None, I repeat, none of them will ever reach their full potential as ball players under Rocco. That’s just the plain truth. BTW, I like each of these youngsters and hope they get their wish for a real chance like Speer, Rooker, and CES. Please trade one of them to the Reds and Terry Francona.
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What Does An Edouard Julien Bounceback Look Like?
Nashvilletwin replied to Cody Pirkl's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
What does Julien’s bounce back look like? Starting 2B or 1B for the ChiSox, Reds, A’s, Rays, or Rockies, etc. and a 2026 All Star nod. -
19 Questions for 19 Twins Hitting Prospects in 2025
Nashvilletwin replied to Jamie Cameron's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
Question 20: In the spirit of true positional flexibility - an almost required trait among any Twins prospect hoping to make the big club - when will we see Jenkins, ERod, Keaschall, and/or Winokur start catching? Think about how cool that would be - outfield one day, infield the next and catcher the next. Rocco could really ramp up his platoon opportunities to a whole new level as well. Being a mediocre defender at more than one position goes way up in value if catcher is one of those. Sadly, it might be too late for Miranda, Julien, Larnach, Martin and/or Lee to become a catcher. We really need a sarcasm font….- 23 replies
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What does France’s signing mean for Miranda? It means Miranda’s agent is asking (again?) for a trade. Btw, same for Julien….
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I can think of four reasons - all of which happen in the real world. And the eventual buyer of the Twins might be looking at a combination of all four as reasons for their purchase. 1. The buyer thinks he can effect operational changes that can improve financial performance. This is most common. 2. The buyer thinks the capital return on the investment will increase even if cash flow is negative annually. This is common for tech companies and professional sports teams. Private equity buyers often combine #1 and #2 plus leverage (debt) in the hopes of seeing their exit multiple expand and turbocharge their equity returns. 3. The buyer sees the business as a loss leader that will enable him to achieve greater returns in related businesses. This can be tenuous, but, re the Twins, the stadium and tv rights might be useful in this regard. 4. The buyer gets his “return” from non-financial sources. Could be ego, civic pride, goodwill, or just plain fun running/owning it. There may be others, but in my experience, these have been the four most common I’ve seen.
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This is 100% correct, apparently for the Pohlads. The goal is to find a buyer who has a vision for making operational improvements to the franchise and/or gets a “return” from owning the business other than purely financial. TDers (and the Pohlads too, haha) are hoping a Stevie Cohen equivalent buys the club. I guess it’s possible, but it’s really not the reality.
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Mike, did you read the post? Two things can be true: the Twins can lose money annually on a cash basis AND they can sell their ownership position for a huge, billion $ plus gain. Right? And they certainly are not selling out of charity. As my posts make clear, they probably think they have more productive uses (and who knows what those are: property, pay down debt, family dividend, etc.) of their capital going forward than trying to compete as a small/mid market team in this environment. They can see the trends.
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Agree 100%. Well stated. Btw, it very well could be that cash flow was positive in ‘24. Trying to turn that around pre sale for any relatively mature business is pre sale 101. My insights don’t match yours on the actual number, but I’m not going to say you’re wrong. It would make sense.
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Wrong. Our minor league development is excellent, borderline outstanding. The ongoing development once these players arrive in the big leagues is abysmal. That is 100% on the scheme and techniques and leadership provided by Rocco and Falvey.
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I’ve been castigated so many times on this site for my claim that the Twins organization in its entirety lose money - tens of millions annually - on a CASH basis. I’m not crying for the Pohlads - the equity value of their initial investment has grown substantially. I’m also not here to debate whether that has proved to be a better investment than other alternatives available at the time of purchase or over the years. However, I would argue at this point in time it’s very possible the Pohlads see the unrealised equity growth in small/mid market baseball franchises waning while the annual cash requirements (and cash losses) continue to grow. That dynamic decreases IRRs and it’s quite possible that they see better uses or have other needs for their capital. We will see how this all shakes out. But my real point is that we shouldn’t hold out hope for somebody to come in here to blow money so they can satisfy their egos. With what’s going on in LA and NY (one reason why equity values for small market teams are slowing or falling), the amount of that type of egotistical wager just keeps going up. We are better off developing controllable (i.e. cheap) superior major leaguers. So my ultimate point is that Falvey and Rocco stink at that.
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Agree. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. The only way for a small/mid market team like the Twins to create any sort of competitive advantage is through the ability to draft, develop, and transition prospects into controllable, superior major league ballplayers. Wishing for a super rich sugar daddy owner willing to annually lose tens, if not hundreds, of millions to try to compete with teams with more lucrative markets is farcical. It just astounds me how most TDers hold out hope for an egotistical owner willing to burn cash year in and year out. And, yes, the Pohlads did that. Maybe one will show up, and if so, will be politically acceptable to our rabble as well. But don’t count on it; that’s a pipe dream. There are way fewer irrational billionaires around than people think.
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Please. Polanco and Kepler came up in 2016 and 2017. Buxton in 2015 and 2016. Rocco showed up in 2019. I will give you Jeffers, although his development seems to have stalled out last year after a great 2023. The others you mentioned have not transitioned into solid everyday players. Lewis is closet, but his hitting is now suspect and he’s a below average 3B. Wallner is still an platooner who isn’t allowed to hit against lefties. The Twins think so much of Miranda and Larnach that they brought in a couple of retreads to take their innings and ABs. Julien and Lee are in the same boat. The reason for the position player focus is because pitchers play one position (same as catcher so Jeffers falls in this category); thus, Rocco can’t screw them up by moving them all around the diamond. My point remains: the Rocco/Falvey regime is a death trap for top prospects.
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Who said anything about farm systems? This discussion is about transitioning achieving minor leaguers and top professionally ranked prospects into everyday major league regulars. The Twins minor league system is fine, if not borderline outstanding. However, under Rocco/Falvey, successfully continuing that position player development at the major league level is a black hole. Lewis might love to be traded to a team, Angels or otherwise, that will develop him defensively at a set position and continue to build his broader skill set more effectively. The only problem would be the fight among the agents for the rest of our theoretical young core who would be fighting for their players to be the one traded.
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Agree on Wallner, but he’s still a platoon player in Rocco’s scheme. So he still hasn’t really “made it” until he gets the reps in high leverage at bats. But he’s probably overperformed vis-a-vis expectations. We will see how 2025 turns out. I really like Wallner. The rest - Lewis, Miranda, Larnach, Martin, Julien (2023 version) and Lee have all underperformed relative to expectations. Not even close. I’m cheering for them all - they are a big part of the reason I’m interested.
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Just do the guy a solid and trade him.
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I specifically said position players. And the best position players who have “graduated” are Steer and Rooker. I guess you could say Arraez too. For the record, I have the under on Rodriguez and Keaschall. I hope I’m wrong.
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At least he’d be close to home. Besides, it’d be hard to believe the Angel’s organization could be any worse developing young major league talent than the Twins. He’d get to play with Trout too, Nah, if Royce really wants to be a pretty big time star, he needs to get better and that likelihood probably increases in the grasp of another franchise. I mean, Kepler (decent hitter and strong fielder who played one position every day) is probably our best internally developed position player success story over the past decade and Royce has to aspire to more than that.
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You are correct: “fingers crossed” says it all. There is no reason to expect this season to be any different than the past, so we might as well cross our fingers.
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I saw the headline and I thought for a second Royce got traded to the Angels…lucky guy. Alas, not the case. Hope he’s healthy this year - he’s fun to watch and to cheer for.
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Lewis was being compared to Trout - he can’t even hold his jock strap at this point. Lee was the eighth pick after a huge college career and was a consensus top 40 prospect. Most, if not all of the rest were top 100s or close - according to the professionals. If these types of players are not considered to be potential everyday major league starters, then who is? The sad truth is that you do not want to be a top prospect within the Twins organization. Right now, I’d wager every single one of those players, with maybe the exception of Lewis, would welcome a trade to any team that would truly make the investment in them to see what they can be. That’s what any young professional - in any pursuit - seeks. The Twins just won’t make that investment.
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Yep, all of our highly touted “can’t missers” (Julien was more of a surprise, granted). That is seven players we have all been brainwashed into thinking they are our future core. The reality is that, although every single one of them was projected to be an everyday above average position player, there is a decent chance none of them will be. Btw, are they inherently poor fielders or is it because they’ve been moved around the diamond so much? Rocco and Falvey should write a book entitled How to Ruin a Can’t Miss Prospect”.
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1. My point was about position players. 2. Ryan was mostly developed in the TB system, anyway. 3. Lewis is not a hit yet - he plays below average 3B (and we don’t even know if that is where he will stay) and his hitting still has a way to go in it’s consistency. Question for you: is Lewis where you think he should be or you’d hoped he be at this point? We can all agree he’s behind schedule for someone who was being compared to Mike Trout. Let’s just call it like it is - the Twins under Rocco and Falvey just stink at developing position players. The fact that some DNers look at Lewis as their big success story just proves it.
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Thank you. You can also add in the confusion about what position Lewis will play. He’s played multiple spots and virtually every day on this thread there is discussion about him playing 3B, 2B, SS, and 1B (the OF experiment seems to be off the table, but who knows with Rocco et al). This is not how superstars are developed.
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Royce Lewis is not a hit yet. I sure hope he becomes one though! Not one of these position players, throw in Wallner if you like as well, is a regular, non-platooning major leaguer playing a set position at a high level. Steer and Rooker are (but they made it playing on other teams). I’m not trying to be a Debby Downer, it’s just that there doesn’t seem to be a willingness to invest the reps (in the field at one position and at the plate against lefties and righties) in these young players. You can’t expect the big return, without putting in the investment. I have big hopes for Jenkins, but, sadly, have the under on ERod and Keaschall. The data is just not there to formulate a different opinion at this time.
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Well, let’s face it, if Lee does “make” it, he’ll be the first “sure fire” Twins prospect to do so in years. So the odds are stacked against him as long as he is part of this organization. If 2025 is truly “make or break” for Lee, he’s way better off getting traded as soon as possible. BTW, feel free to insert Julien, Larnach, Miranda, Wallner, Martin and even Lewis in this category. ERod and Keaschall are next in line. Just keepin’ things real….
