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Nashvilletwin

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Everything posted by Nashvilletwin

  1. Nashvilletwin
    Here’s another big difference between the two organizations: the Brewers simply get more production out of their players. They take decent minor league talent and turn them into productive major leaguers. They play a type of baseball consistent with their talents. They are a fun and exciting team. The Twins under Rocco are none of these things - in fact, the polar opposite.
  2. Nashvilletwin
    I love Ryan and Lopez as much as the next guy. They are both legit #1s and fun to cheer for as well. It would be great if we built around them. But that’s not the reality. Why? 1. They simply are going to cost too much money. This team is in cash preservation mode. Period. 2. We have control for two more years. But in all likelihood there is not going to be much baseball, in any, played in the second of those two years. There is absolutely no chance we have the financial resources to resign either of them in 2028. Zero. So our control - and expected service - is really only one year 3. We will get a king’s ransom for each of them this offseason - probably more than we could’ve got this past trade deadline. Those players will be instrumental in building an exciting young new core of cheap, controllable players for a 2028-2030 run - which is the business model the Twins are now (forcibly) pursuing. 4. A new CBA coupled with a lower controllable payroll and an exciting group of emerging talents is EXACTLY the situation the Pohlads are trying to create over the next two/three years in order to effect a sale at a higher price. Sorry, but Ryan and Lopez will be moved during the offseason. Sad, but in all likelihood, it’s the way things will be.
  3. Nashvilletwin
    Ryan is going to return an absolute HAUL this off-season.
  4. Nashvilletwin
    The handwringing on the TD today is hilarious. It was always a pipe dream that the Pohlads were going to sell to a vanity driven multibillionaire who would be willing to lose even more money than the parsimonious Pohlads. Get over it - that was never going to happen given the current financial performance and condition of this franchise. The silver lining is the Twins are going to have to embrace a model that emphasises internal player development. Face it - it’s the only way a franchise like the Twins can compete sans a salary cap (which may arrive with the new CBA after 2027, if we are lucky). No, the real horrible news is that the Twins are destined to fail in this newly adopted business model with Rocco (and Falvey) at the helm. There is absolutely nothing in their performance history that indicates they can be successful developing top young talent. In fact, the opposite is true - Rocco is horrible at it. The Twins actually have a genuine opportunity to build a competing team by 2028 comprised of a bunch of cheap, controllable quality players. But that too will be a pipe dream if Rocco stays.
  5. Nashvilletwin
    Told you so. I predicted this after the trade deadline. They will wait to sell (all or control) until post the new CBA - which may institute a value enhancing salary cap. Waiting also allows them to develop a more robust tv revenue flow as well as build an exciting new roster. The worst part about this announcement actually is that it probably means Rocco stays. Rocco at the helm will do more to hold back the success of this team than the Pohlads failing to sell to another cash conscious owner (which clearly given their lack of success selling the team was the best they were going to do). It completely cracks me up all the dismay and sadness from many TDers that some Stevie Cohen equivalent didn’t but the team. Lol. That was never the reality.
  6. Nashvilletwin
    So what did we get out of: Kiriloff, Larnach, Miranda, Julien, Gordon, Martin, Lewis, Rodriguez, Lee, and Wallner? One yet to be proven everyday starter (Lewis - eight years later #1 pick) One platoon right fielder (Wallner) One utility infielder (Lee) How’d we do? I think nine of those ten were top 100 prospects at one point (not sure about Wallner). Not one is an average to above average major leaguer.
  7. Nashvilletwin
    100% it does - especially for a rebuilding club like the Twins. What might it mean? 2026 is about building for 2028. Thus, look for Ryan and Lopez to be traded during the offseason to teams serious about contending in 2026. Both should bring a serious haul of close projectable talent.Jeffers might also be moved at the 2026 deadline as the young catching talent in the system now might be projectable by then.
  8. Nashvilletwin
    You missed the most important point that can help salvage 2025 and help prep us for a more successful 2026: Replace Rocco.
  9. Nashvilletwin
    Yes, we have been one of the most significant underperformed over the past five years. That is a BSO (blinding statement of the obvious). Different teams, different payrolls, different players, even different assistant coaches. The only thing that has been consistent on the field is Rocco. Hmm…makes one wonder. If the Twins want to win and reach the potential for the players who are on the field, they must replace Rocco. He has proven his inability to get the most out of his players - individually and as a team. That too is a BSO.
  10. Nashvilletwin
    So, if the premise of the article is true, was Lee a poor draft pick or was he poorly developed upon his arrival to the show? Has to be one of the two, right? Boy, and all the yammering about how we got the steal of the draft - one of the best bats and a coach’s son to boot…. Now just a couple of years later he projects as a poor utility player with maybe one or two halfway decent tools (arm and hit for contact?). Ok, DNers, if the article is accurate, was Lee a bad pick or did we just fail at making him a real major leaguer? (For the record, I have not given up on him, but it is doubtful he reached anywhere near his post draft ceiling. Hope I’m wrong).
  11. Nashvilletwin
    Let’s see how the sale works out. I’m in the “I”ll believe it when I see it camp” and wouldn’t be surprised to see the Pohlads hold on through the next CBA. If that’s the case, the $1000MM payroll metric goes to $60-75MM. Thus, Ryan and Lopez are gone this offseason and Jeffers is gone when at least one of the two catching prospects is ready. Ober, Larnach, meh. Ideally Lewis is someone we could grow around.
  12. Nashvilletwin
    Another option to develop for a decent run in ‘28. There are starting to be quite a lot of them across the board; infield, outfield, catcher, starters, relievers (converted starters). ’26 will be a developmental year and we should expect it to include offseason trades of both Ryan and Lopez to reduce payroll and build for ‘28 (both should return a haul of almost ready top prospects from teams looking to win pre lockout). ’27 will most certainly see an extended lockout. No expectations for that season. ’26 (and the rest of ‘25 for that matter) will be enjoyable to watch, despite the growing pains, as the prospects develop. But ‘28 will be when the fun really starts.
  13. Nashvilletwin
    ‘26 could be fun to watch some of the young guys - both position players and pitchers. ’27 there won’t be much baseball played this year. ’28 is when things should get really fun again. I just wish they’d go forward with someone other than Rocco.
  14. Nashvilletwin
    I’m way more interested in watching this lineup than before. I’ll tune in to watch: Clemens 1B, DH Keaschall 2B Lee SS Lewis 3B Wallner RF Buxton CF Larnach LF Rhoden LF, RF, DH, PH Julien 1B, 2B, DH, PH Martin CF, LF, PH, PR Jeffers C, DH Vasquez C I also very much enjoy watching our starting rotation. The bullpen, Gasper and Fitzgerald are at this point another story….
  15. Nashvilletwin
    We can all argue about Jeffers or Arraez, etc. But the CRITICAL point is that a small/mid-market team cannot compete effectively in MLB unless they are able to successfully draft and develop their prospects into legitimate MLB average to above average every day major leaguers. Without a salary cap, these franchises just cannot attract and retain expensive FAs. So they have to compete by developing their home grown players, ideally better than other teams if they truly want to compete for a pennant. No one can argue against that. It’s that simple. The Twins under Rocco and Falvey have been extremely poor in this critical area required for small/mid-market team consistent success, especially as it relates to position players. That’s just the plain truth. One or two decent position players in seven years is a horrible record for a franchise like the Twins.
  16. Nashvilletwin
    The total value “paid” for a business in a sale is essentially the value of the equity plus any assumed debt less any excess cash (some amount of cash on hand is necessary to run any business). This is called “enterprise value”. So if the Pohlads are asking for $1.7BB for their equity and are asking that the +$400MM stay with the business, then they are really asking for $2.1BB. Enterprise Value is also important because it is used to determine comparable value metrics (think EV/sales, EV/EBITDA, etc.). If the there are no earnings or cash flow (i.e EBITDA), then the valuation metric EV/EBITDA is essentially infinity. Not good for a buyer. This situation may also be indicative of a business in which the entity’s cash flow (again, essentially EBITDA) is insufficient to cover the interest payments. Thus, the only reason a sale would generally occur in this situation would be if the purchaser were convinced that either the equity value of business would rise rapidly or operating changes could be effected to increase cash flow or the buyer just doesn’t care because it’s an ego purchase. Given the current state of Major League Baseball (especially for small/mid-market teams) and the seemingly little room for the Twins to increase high margin revenues and/or substantially decrease costs over the entirety of the franchise, it’s no wonder the Pohlads are having a tough time selling, certainly at their asking price. It’s just a bad economic deal with very little room to effect positive financial changes to the operations. The Pohlads may be better off reducing costs in the near term and waiting for the new CBA (which, via a salary cap like the one that saved the NFL, might bring substantial relief and value to the small/mid-sized franchises).
  17. Nashvilletwin
    Like I said Arraez is the best example. But still that’s 5-7 years ago. Wallner was a few ABs from being sent down before the All Star Break. He has a long way to go. Yes, the injuries re Lewis; but in no way can it be argued that he has demonstrated his potential when healthy. But the key point is that a small/mid-market team like the Twins - that cannot compete in the FA market - must be exceptional at drafting and developing their talent in order to create and sustain any sort of competitive advantage. One position player in seven years is appallingly bad. The Twins under Falvey and Rocco have been exceedingly poor at doing so.
  18. Nashvilletwin
    Arraez might be the only example yet he was the product of a different front office. And he was there when Rocco first got the gig. So it’s almost a good example. Probs the best. But that also was nearly seven years ago. He hasn’t come close since. Wallner? Please. I love the guy but he hasn’t even been able to stay in the show for a year. Up and down doesn’t count as a success. Maybe he will be; but he’s a far cry still from an every day average to above average major leaguer. Heck, he barely sees left handed pitching. Lewis is the best bet. But he was a #1 pick for crying out loud. Yes, he’s been injured a lot, but even when healthy he’s not lived up to his potential. I still have hopes for him though and would love to see him get to his potential (same for Wallner). I just don’t think the chances of that are maximized under Rocco.
  19. Nashvilletwin
    Still crickets. Zero position players in seven years under Rocco.
  20. Nashvilletwin
    Exactly.
  21. Nashvilletwin
    Which position player has successfully transitioned (every day regular - average to above average) to the majors under Rocco? He’s been at the helm since 2019. Simple question. Just name one (other than Jeffers, a catcher). Crickets. Either we can’t draft or we can’t develop. Given the initial success in the show so many of our “Top 100” accomplished minor leagues have had, I’m taking “we can’t develop” I’m wondering if any other small/mid market team has had as little success in this endeavor over the past seven years? Doubt it. Under Rocco we are probably the standard bearers in futility.
  22. Nashvilletwin
    Just like all our top AAA position players. Every one. Please enlighten all of us about the inordinate success the Twins have transitioning those players.
  23. Nashvilletwin
    All three ruined by the Twins. Exceptional AAA players who never had a chance under the tutelage of Rocco and team. And spare us the “lots of good minor leaguers never make it” baloney. No one (specifically position players) makes it under Rocco. Name one. Jeffers is the best and only possible example. He’s about an average major league catcher (and he’s a catcher basically platooning his entire career). The jury is still out on Wallner, Lee and Lewis - maybe one of them will develop into an above average everyday major leaguer. Lewis has the best chance and we all hope he does make it - but no one can argue he’s attained anything near his potential (including considering his injuries). Lee is expected to be a utility player in a year or two. Wallner goes back and forth between a dependable slugger and not playable. And he really only plays against righties. Spare us on Larnach. The most successful Twins minor leaguers actually make it with other teams. The best thing that could happen to Miranda, Julien and Martin is a change of scenery. And I’d hate to be a position player drafted by or traded to the Twins. The successs rate just isn’t there.
  24. Nashvilletwin
    For whatever reason I imagine TK or Gardy making Kiersey take 100 bunt reps per day until he was more than proficient. I also imagine both of them fining Kiersey $200 for not getting the bunt down - followed by several hundred more reps the next day. Heck, I’d do that (not the fine part) with my little leaguers or juniors.
  25. Nashvilletwin
    Kiersey trying to bunt today is a screaming example of the failures our organization. How in the world can our fastest player literally have no idea how to lay down a bunt? How does that player with that particular skill set get to the major leagues without developing the most obvious skill needed to maximum his speed. It’s simply mind boggling. That’s 100% on the coaching staff.
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