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Nashvilletwin

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Everything posted by Nashvilletwin

  1. Nashvilletwin
    Don’t misunderstand me - I am no apologist for the Pohlads or how the Twinds found themselves in this current predicament. The poor leadership and mismanagement of strategy have been epic. However, given where things are today (i.e. abysmal results on the field way below expectations, significant annual losses on a cash basis, drastically falling TV revenue, an inability to develop demonstrable prospect talent, and little interest from buyers of the franchise at an “attractive” price) and where things are clearly headed (no chance to win in ‘26 with the pre or post trade deadline personnel, a long lockout in ‘27 ending with a salary cap/floor model, a new, more lucrative long term TV deal, significantly increased franchise values for small/mid market teams, and a host of young talent that could be developed by the right baseball leaders into a new young cheap core), the Nephew’s new strategy is, sadly to many, the correct one. It’s exactly the strategy, if replacing Falvey is part of it, that I’d implement if I were looking to build franchise value to sell in 2028.
  2. Nashvilletwin
    I know. I know. You never do believe it. But it’s true. Sorry. But I still think you’re a great person and Twins fan.
  3. Nashvilletwin
    The original plan put in place after the 2019 juiced ball Bomba season not only didn’t work, but also was so clearly misaligned with how a franchise like the Twins needed to be run in the current version of Major League Baseball. The Twins struggled to compete in this environment while also (yes, it’s true, sorry) losing hundreds of millions on a cash/operating profit basis over many years. So a big pivot was necessary. The included post above about 4 of the top five spending teams making the playoffs (with the Mets just missing out) explains where we are headed; namely the adoption of a salary cap/floor model following an extensive lockout in 2017. The small to mid size owners will go to the absolute mat to see that through. Why? Because it both gives them a better chance to compete AND increases the value of their franchises. So the strategy had to change in preparation for this new environment. What are the core planks of that strategy? Reduced personnel costs until the floor is adopted, emphasis on a deep prospect list and player development. And, btw, the new strategy is much more consistent with what has won us two World Series in the past. The first main step in this pivot was the trade deadline. The second is replacing Rocco. Ideally, the third will be replacing Falvey. Additional steps will likely (and sadly) include trading one or more of our remaining higher priced players for even more young talent. Also, expect significant coaching and process changes to get better results out of prospect to successful major leaguer transitions. 2026 will likely be rough. 2027 may not see much baseball. But in 2028 the goal is to emerge in the new cap/floor model with a cadre of young, cheap capable major leaguers ready to be augmented by the addition of a couple of more expensive FA veterans (to meet the floor and fill the biggest holes). And when that strategy unfolds, the Pohlads will sell.
  4. Nashvilletwin
    Developing and getting the most out of young emerging talent is really the only way a small/mid-market team can hope to be continuously competitive. This was never Rocco’s forte - and it needs to be for whoever may be his replacement.
  5. Nashvilletwin
    100% agree. We all wish Rocco the best. We appreciate his efforts on behalf of us Twins fans. But his time to leave was overdue. The key to the Twins future - which was made abundantly clear at the trade deadline - will be to develop our cheap, controllable, talented prospects. Rocco was demonstrably poor at this incredibly important part of the manager’s role. My hope is that this decision will increase the likelihood that Ryan could be extended. Moreover, Rocco’s departure may inject new life into the potential of some of our underperforming young major leaguers (Lewis, Martin, Lee, Wallner and Julien in particular) as well as improve the likelihood that our up and coming minor league prospects will be more successful in transitioning into legitimate major league ball players. This was an incredibly important move for the future of this franchise.
  6. Nashvilletwin
    Which long-standing Twins may not be back next year? The list of possibles is actually quite long: Buxton. Jeffers. Vasquez. Larnach. Julien. Miranda. Lopez. Ryan. Ober. Ideally, Rocco is the first one out the door. (Wallner, Lewis, Lee, and Martin are probably safe). All won’t be gone, but we’ve probably have seen many of them for the last time in a Twins uniform.
  7. Nashvilletwin
    I wrote about this earlier this week. Falvey et al may indeed have the Correa discussion with Byron. Could be a win-win. Byron may not want to hang around for a multi year rebuild, especially as he is now in the midst of his peak capabilities. For the Twins, Byron is at his highest trade value and, with the strike looming in 2027, it very likely will never be higher. The list of suitors should be long giving Byron a lot of choices.
  8. Nashvilletwin
    My understanding is that in the event of a tie, then last year’s record is used. In this case, the Pirates would hold the tiebreaker.
  9. Nashvilletwin
    I wonder if we fire Rocco if we could somehow talk Ryan into signing an extension. Just move Lopez then. It would be nice to have Ryan as the anchor of our young staff. Nah, that’s probably a pipe dream….
  10. Nashvilletwin
    My son played several little league games on Joe Ryan’s home little league field. So we’ve enjoyed cheering for him, especially as a Twin. I made sure to tune in last night to catch his last outing with us. Sad,
  11. Nashvilletwin
    1. It’s only one year - 2026. 2027 is going to be a shortened season almost certainly if any baseball is played. 2. Regardless, there is NO WAY Falvey and Rocco deserve to be back and participate in any way in the rebuild. If they are, then the chances that the rebuild will be a disaster are very high.
  12. Nashvilletwin
    Hate to say it, but it might be time to have the Correa chat with Buxton. His value will never, ever be higher than it is right now. Besides, it’s really only fair to him as well. With this team clearly in full rebuild mode targeting ‘28 in reality (given the likely 2027 lockout), Byron deserves the option to be part of a winning team. The suitors should be lined up around the block giving him plenty of options. The sad truth is that we Twins fans will need to get our enjoyment out of watching developing young players in ‘26 and ‘27 (for however much baseball we might actually get to see that year). There should be more than a gleam of sunlight though for ‘28 and beyond. We will need to be patient though. The haul we should get for Lopez, Ryan and Buxton, coupled with a new manager, would help a ton.
  13. Nashvilletwin
    To quote Nate Bargatze’s George Washington: “Nobody knows” Or we could just produce a new sitcom called “Rocco Knows Best”.
  14. Nashvilletwin
    Lewis will be tendered - 100%. The question is should he be traded. If Rocco stays, then if I’m Lewis, I think I get my agent to look for some different scenery. He desperately needs a new approach to save what should be a solid MLB career. So trade him. If Rocco goes, then we should not trade Lewis. Let’s see what some other leadership can do for him. Giving Lewis another chance here under a different mentor/coaching regime is reason enough to fire Rocco. Lewis’ option value alone is way greater than the differentiated value Rocco brings to the table for another year (including the comp we’d save by keeping Rocco). Sadly, Ryan is too far gone to be enticed to stay by a Rocco firing - he clearly wants out.
  15. Nashvilletwin
    A really solid take. There have been some positives for sure and those highlighted are pretty much the closest ones. Buxton, Keaschall and Martin have all been a joy to watch. Same with Ryan for the most part, but it’s clear he is mentally checked out and can’t wait to leave the organization. The TDers posting about the depth not meaning much are 100% completely justified: it’s been all hat and no cattle under Rocco’s regime when it comes to establishing our incredibly successful minor league prospects as true major leaguers. There may be possible seventh and eighth positives and they could be the most impactful. Namely, this team has been so bad we might not only luck into the #1 pick and get that SS from USC, but also there really should be no way we keep Rocco. And that means that our improved depth might actually be worth something after all.
  16. Nashvilletwin
    Please see my response above. No one said or implied that we would have a shut down pen in ‘26. But a passable pen? More easily doable than any of the others. Besides, on our vaunted recent relief corps you referenced, weren’t there at least a couple of former starters (certainly in the minors) before being converted to relievers (Jax, Varland, and Duran come to mind)?
  17. Nashvilletwin
    What can we expect? 1. Making the playoffs when we have the talent. The Twins had more than enough talent to have made the playoffs the last two years (2024 was an epic collapse). 2. Developing outstanding minor league talent into successful major leaguers. Those are the minimum results that a small/mid market team needs to get out of their manager - develop the cheap homegrown talent and win the window is open. Rocco has failed at both.
  18. Nashvilletwin
    1. I said even that’s saying a lot. 2. One or two of Festa, Raya, Prielipp, Ohl, maybe Bradley. Don’t need them all obviously. 3. Some subset of Funderburk, Sands, Topa, Adam. 4. Odds of finding a cheap, halfway decent FA reliever or two? Even for the Twins, better than Lee or Lewis becoming regular above average infielders (particularly under Rocco) or Emma, Roden, or Outman ever becoming a decent major leaguer. Didn’t mean to get you so upset. Just keeping things real.
  19. Nashvilletwin
    The most likely and easiest to accomplish (and that’s even a stretch) of the listed possibilities is actually the last one - a decent bullpen. A couple of converted starters, a few warmed up leftovers, and a wisely spent $3-5MM would get that job done. The rest are way more difficult. 1. Lee, let’s face it, will never be more than a utility infielder after he holds down the starting SS role in ‘26. 2. Prielipp could be the real deal - but it won’t be in ‘26. He just doesn’t have the ability yet to throw enough innings. 3. We will see about Bradley and, maybe, Abel (both look like pretty big works in progress to be even moderately effective contributors in ‘26). But no one should be betting on Outman or Roden - take the under on both of them. 5. Jenkins should be a stud (but not in ‘26) and the Emma train has left the station - all hat, no cattle. 6. Ah, Royce Lewis. So much hope, so much potential. Sad to say, but his best bet to become a passable major leaguer at this point is a change of scenery. Maybe a new manager in the mold of TK could get more out of him. 6. Unless Pablo is actually hurt badly, both he and Joe will be (and should be) traded. They will never, ever resign with the Twins and so, with the lockout looming, 2026 is their last year with the Twins. Why waste the trade haul we could get on one year of both of them on a struggling team. The bullpen is BY FAR the easiest of these to accomplish. And maybe only because the others have as much chance as a snowball in Hades.
  20. Nashvilletwin
    I will honor the story by attempting a concise thoughtful response. But it is a bit funny to have this article follow “How the Twins Can Spend $30MM in 2026”. It’s not even close. Rocco is not in the same ballpark as any of those other managers. Other than one juiced ball year (with a roster he basically inherited) and one playoff series win, Rocco has consistently gotten less out of his players - individually and as a team - than any of those other managers. The mentioning of injuries as the first excuse is ridiculous. Roster construction? Please. Rocco has had plenty of talent with which to work. His problem has not been the players he’s had; instead, it’s been both developing them and/or getting them to be the best ball players they can be, The author points out three keys for Rocco going forward (one of which is “playoff success” - please insert the obligatory Jim Mora gif here). None of these are nearly as important as being able to transform into true major leaguers the young talent that a small/mid market necessarily must consistently do in order to compete (particularly in this salary cap less MLB environment). Rocco seems like a super nice gentleman. He’s more than likely well liked by the people who know him well. However, it’s time to quit making excuses as to his suitability to be the manager of the Minnesota Twins. The data points and lack of results are all there right in front of all of us.
  21. Nashvilletwin
    The relevant question is where can the Twins SAVE $30MM this offseason? Check out the article on ESPN this morning about the salary cap. The number one way for owners to increase the value of their franchises is via the implementation of a cap. The owners all understand that (and oh, btw, it’s not a zero sum game - the players overall - except for maybe the mega stars - should on the aggregate benefit too). Why do you think the Pohlads didn’t sell while holding out for a higher price? Why do you think some private equity folks were interested in buying minority stakes in the Twins? They are not dumb (except for keeping Rocco, of course). Make no mistake about it. The plan is to cut payroll, build a cadre of cheap, controllable talent, prepare for a long strike in 2027, implement a cap/floor model after the lockout, add one of two solid veteran FAs to reach the floor, solve the TV issues, emerge in 2028-2029 with a contending roster and then sell the franchise for a lot more than they can get currently. The plan is a plain as the noses on our faces. And, yes, it’s a smart plan sorry to say. We all can forget the fallacy of adding to payroll in 2026.
  22. Nashvilletwin
    SWR justing adding to the rationale to trade both Lopez and Ryan this off season…..
  23. Nashvilletwin
    Yeah, I get that sentiment. But the Pohlads are commercial beings. Having Rocco basically destroy another crop of young prospects is not the way to maximize the sale proceeds post the new CBA. Whatever they lose by having to pay both Rocco next year and a new manager will be more than made up in future equity upside (and probably ticket sales with a more successful team). Firing Rocco is the smart financial play as well.
  24. Nashvilletwin
    He’s had plenty of talent to produce better/more competitive results. His teams have invariably, if not consistently, underperformed. He has demonstrably not only been unable to get the most out of his players, but also continue the development of the (baseball industry consensus) top young prospects that he’s received. With a clear rebuild on the way, the surest way to maximize the probability of failure would be to retain Rocco. He’s clearly not the only one who bears responsibility, but he certainly needs to go.
  25. Nashvilletwin
    SWR stays. We will need him after we move Lopez and Ryan (sad, but true). Julien can’t wait to leave. He’s begging to be outrighted to go somewhere else to have new start. Clemens will get a shot here and likely break camp with the team until some of the younger talent gestates a bit more. Besides, who’s going to play first? Sabato? Please….and we aren’t bringing in any FAs worth a plugged nickel. Outman - please, God, no. If ERod can’t beat him out next spring, heaven help us. (As an aside, I have the under on ERod ever being a productive major leaguer). Miranda - no chance.
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