Nashvilletwin

Including last year’s two rookies, the Twins have seven legit non-1B (although one or more of them could end up there) infielder prospects coming over the next three or so seasons: Lewis (now) Julien (now) Lee (2024) Schobel (2026) Keaschall (2026) Andrade (2027) Miller (2026) That’s a solid level of talent with decent spaced timelines coupled with a definite weighting to near term projectability. Interestingly, including Wallner, we have seven outfielders as well: Wallner (now) Jenkins (2026) ERod (2025) Gabby (2026) Martin (2024) Winokur (2027) Rosario (2026) Pretty similar to the infield situation, except the projectability is weighted more toward the later years. ERod showing up and producing at a high level in 2025 is a very important piece assuming at least one of Wallner or Martin can be a reliable above average everyday player.

I wouldn’t be surprised by the FO making a big move before the season begins. I’d love Bellinger or either pitcher, but that just doesn’t seem likely. Instead, I get the sense that they are going to keep their powder dry to see how the season develops and then possibly make a defining move before the deadline. For the time being the FO likes the strategy and the team they’ve put together. But they still have some cash in their pocket reserved for a stretch run addition.

Erod is left handed. What was I thinking. Of course he is, duh. My bad.

I’m beginning to think the FO is keeping their spending powder a bit dry to have the capacity to make a biggish pre deadline move to put the roster in true contending shape.

On second thought, I’m not sure a Correa like deal (the first one) for Bellinger makes sense. Why? A. If Bellinger has a good season, he opts out, If he has a bad season, we overpaid and are stuck with him for at least the next year. We’ve seen this movie before. B. We already have a LH outfielder in Kepler whom we’d probably try to move if we signed Bellinger. But Kepler costs 1/3 as much and might produce as much as Bellinger. And since both would essentially be on one year deals, is Bellinger worth $20MM net for the one season? C, By mid season ERod as a RHed bat might be a better overall fit on the roster for 1/30th the price. D. We signed Santana to play 1B already. Sorry Ghostrider, but the 1B pattern is full. Yeah, so if we want to up payroll by $20MM this season, we might as well go with a starter.

We can only dream…… But if we are dreaming, can we move Kepler to help pay for him? Bellinger would certainly hedge out Buxton for the next three seasons and offer a premium transition to Roy Hobbs (aka Walker Jenkins). Maybe Boras owes us one and we can get a sweet 3 yr deal. Maybe something like Correa’s first deal with us (3 yrs with opt outs). It does make so much sense. I’d take an outfield of Bellinger, Buxton (when healthy), Wallner, ERod, Castro and Martin over the next three years.

Ok, I’ll try another idea. Sign Bellinger.

The #1 (and only truly dial moving ) way to “win back” Twins fans: WIN! *The team will probably draw 1.5MM fans or so anyway. If they want 2MM, they need a legitimate AL pennant contending team out of the gate. All the other strategies are just edge nippers.

Thanks Nick - super article. Yes, I’ve been one of those quite vocal on the TD about the Twins pursuing this type of strategy for years. The reasons just seemed so obvious: 1. The game has changed - starters, with a few exceptions, just don’t rack up innings anymore. There are lots of reasons for this (protecting expensive arms, wanting to play matchups, etc.); however, for virtually all teams there are just are more reliever innings to cover. 2. While starters are throwing fewer innings, their price has continued to skyrocket. Their $/IP has been going up, so the inverse, production/$ has been going down. Yes, production/$ matters to many teams, including our beloved Twins. If innings are innings (as Nick wrote), why pay more for an out? 3. Even if you are willing to pay more for an out, there is enough depth in today’s world of pitching that a fresh arm coming in, often matched up to the opposing team’s lineup, has a higher likelihood of getting outs than starter facing that lineup for a third or fourth time (with familiarity and fatigue being the biggest issues). The data supports this. 4. Speaking of fatigue, a deep, reliable pen actually allows a manager to keep his starters more fresh through the course of a season. The higher relative cost of starters, in addition to true starter depth being possibly the hardest thing to have on a team, makes late season starter freshness incredible important. 5. Reliever depth, on the margin, is much easier to come by, and, with some exceptions of course, much cheaper. Several high leverage mainstays are critical and hard to find; however, the pool of potential candidates who can reasonably (again, production/$) be expected to get three outs in the middle innings when matched up attractively is pretty high. Yes, bullpens can wear down too - but their depth is easier to replace and the marginal cost of a worn out reliever (expected to throw one inning) is way less than that of a starter. 6. Is there anything more psychologically challenging to an opposing team than knowing that, if they don’t have the lead headed into the 7th, they very likely have little chance of winning? The Astros employ this psych ops very effectively. Oh, and it works the other way as well: your starters feel a lot better (i.e. maybe pitch better) knowing the support they have coming behind them. This year is our best opportunity to see the true value of this strategy: our payroll is down and we have pen (on paper) with both solid high leverage performers coupled with solid deep (12+ options) depth. I for one am eager to see the results.

Unless the Pohlads are looking to build a new stadium and need a sales tax hike to help pay for it, an extension now is premature. Let’s see how season progresses and revisit in the somewhat near future.

With DeSclafani and Staumont showing up 100%, the only roster battle, other than because of an outlier performance (both good or bad) and/or injury, is for the last spot on the position player bench. It appears that Larnach and Martin are the leading contenders, but one cannot rule out the veteran Goodrum. Hellman and Prato are longer shots.

Well, if both DeSclafani and Staumont are healthy, then, other than outlier performances (good or bad) and/or injury, the pitching roster is set. The only position player battle is the last seat on the bench with Larnach and Martin as the primary contenders. Here’s hoping for an injury free, no drama spring training.

Why am I more excited about this list than what is just on the paper? Because we already have so much young talent on the varsity team. Lewis, Jeffers, Wallner, Julien, Ober, Ryan, Duran, Varland, maybe add Kiriloff- these are all legit young players that could be mainstays in our lineup for years. Thus, we really don’t need as many of the prospects to hit in the near to mid term. Assuming CC is good for several more years, we only are really taking about having to add one or two outfielders (depending on Buxton) and maybe one infielder (and we have an excellent one of those knocking on the door) over the next couple of years if need be. We have three young starters to pair with Lopez too. And a premier closer. This bevy of existing young MLB talent actually makes our prospect list stronger than it seems.

Six of one, half a dozen of the other. It will all depend on health and performance. IMHO, this year’s staff as the season is about to commence looks about as strong as last year’s when last season was about to commence. Why? I was expecting zilch out of Mahle, very little out of Maeda and Ober was a wild card. So we just have to see, but there is a lot to like about this year’s rotation (overall, relative to the rest of the AL, and relative to last year’s heading into the season). Now, if we are talking about our entire pitching staff in terms of talent and depth, I’m 100% taking this year’s over last year’s (again, comparing apples to apples - the staffs as the season began).

When the time comes, and it’s coming this year because Lee is going to make it happen, there is no log jam. Plain and simple. We have five positions for seven players. The five positions are: 1B, 2B, 3B, SS and DH. The seven players, this season, are: Correa, Lewis, Lee, Julien, Kiriloff, Farmer and Santana. Let’s examine the playing options of each player (primary first and then secondary) Correa - SS, DH (LH) Lewis - 3B, SS, 2B, DH (LH) Lee - 2B, SS, 3B, DH (RH, LH). Julien - 2B, 1B, DH (RH). Kiriloff - 1B, COF, DH (RH). Farmer - Defensive substitute, full time injury replacement SS, 3B, 2B. Santana - 1B, defensive substitute, DH (RH, LH) Assumption: At least one Twins position player (excluding C) across the entire lineup is on the IL 80% of all games post May 1. Solution: Five of those IF players start every game with each one getting a day off every seven games or so depending on need and matchups. Farmer plays as a late inning sub unless one of CC, Lewis, or Lee is on the IL. Santana, Julien, and Kiriloff primarily rotate 1B, DH, and PH duties with Julien rotating into 2B when Lee is having an off day or Lee is filling in for CC or Lewis. Kiriloff can be the 5th OF if need be, while Martin and Larnach act as the swing pieces that move back and fourth with St. Paul to keep the number of non C position players on the active roster at 11 (when no one is on the IL). If things really get tight and/or (God forbid) we are out of contention, one or two of Farmer, Santana, Kepler or Kiriloff (because Severino is ready) gets moved at the deadline. Easy peasy. Now, let’s get everyone playing well and make the above happen.

I respectfully take the other side of this sentiment. Farmer is a real pro’s pro who can step right in as a proven player at any position in the infield. Every young guy on the team will also be better because Farmer is on the team. He’s staying as long as this team is contending. Just my opinion.

I’d take 200 innings in 36 combined starts of 4.25 ERA from Varland and DeSclafani combined right now. If we got 30 starts on average from the other four, that would only leave six starts for others - barely covering doubleheaders.

SWR is on the 40 man already - that’s why he wasn’t mentioned. He’s ahead of Dobnak for sure at the moment in the call up hierarchy, as is probably Winder. Varland, of course, is at the top. Festa could slot in there behind Varland later in the season and then moved to the 40 man. Oh and let’s not forget Canterino’s upside.

Yeah, that’s nice to see. Doesn’t look like Bubba Thompson made it through waivers. Starter depth is fairly limited to who’s on the 40 man other than Festa and Dobnak (one can only cheer for him). However, there may be a legit full handful of relievers who could be called upon this year and be effective.

There is a little more position player depth on the farm outside the 40 man than I had remembered. Helman, Prato, and Goodrum (he of prior big league experience) can pretty much play all over the field except C. Keirsey is probably our 4th CFer at the moment. And, of course, Lee. So that’s five players who could be called upon in addition to Larnach/Martin, Miranda, Severino, and ERod. Not all of those are ready now, but that is a nine player pool from which to access for call ups. Overall young and inexperienced, but there is talent there for sure..

Here’s my advice Roy, I mean, Walker: avoid creepy attractive women on trains. Everything else will take care of itself.

I thought we have 4 consensus top 100s in Jenkins, Lee, ERod and Gabby? Maybe Gabby isn’t on all of them. But he is #4 in our system according to the national rankers. So there really isn’t much difference between #5 and #6. Honestly, if Festa is our #6 starter next year replacing DeScalafani and both are solid #3-#4 rotation types in 2026, we all should be pleased as punch. No one really cares much where they are relative to one another in the rankings.

I apologise to all Twins fans for jinxing the season, but I will take the over and a division crown. There is certainly a lot of performance risk in this lineup and not a tremendous amount of bankable depth, but the strength of this team will be its pitching, and, specifically, the pen. I’ve been fairly vocal on the TD about how a deep, shutdown pen is the key to added wins in the 5-6 inning starter era. This pen could run 12 deep with a solid six being high leverage options. If the starters can average 5-6 innings a game and an ERA of 4.00 or less, there should be enough offense and bullpen success to carry this team to over 88 wins.

Yeah, DH is an interesting question for this ball club. It really looks to be shaping up to be a rotation primarily among a handful of players. Against RHs, Santana/Kiriloff (whoever is not playing 1B), Larnach (provided he makes the team) and switch hitter Castro (but he is our only CF backup) should see a lot of ABs. Against LHs, Santana, Jeffers and Buxton could be top choices. Assuming 70% or so of starts are by RHers, Buxton could start 60% of those games in CF (so about 80 games) and be the primary DH against LHs (say another 30 games). If the plan is to use Buxton or Castro as the DH, and Kepler is not willing to move to CF as needed, Martin is the better last choice for the roster.

If a RH OF bat is not added, then one of Larnach and Martin (the only real position battle of ST) makes the team and the other plus Keirsey is the extent of our theoretical OF depth in AAA. All three of those players are unproven at the MLB level. With uncertainty about both Buxton’s health and Wallner’s sophomore season, our OF depth is insufficient. It would be smart to add a RH OF bat. Sadly, Soler is signing a 3 yr deal with the Giants. The starting staff is not only set, but solid with a true #1, possibly three #2 or #3 types, and two #5s who will both see plenty of starts this season, Adding an additional arm now would only push Varland further down the SP chain - which is not what the FO wants. The goal is to get through the first several months with the six bonafide starters and then, if there are injuries or performance stumbles, see what SWR, Festa, Headrick and others can bring to the table or, alternatively, look to the trade market. Barring injury, the reliever lineup is set. If Staumont is not ready, then there will be a battle for the final spot. If all goes well, ST will be pretty boring. Let’s hope so.