Nashvilletwin

DH against righties - 2/3rds of starts. Can spell Wallner or Kepler against lefties (depending on who is swinging a hotter bat) - so Wallner won’t lose that many AB’s. Btw, Castro probably starts in CF against lefties (to give Buxton’s legs a rest) and Buxton gets DH time in those cases (so opposite Soler).

Bingo! This is our guy: power, right handed, corner OF/DH Outfield depth chart: Buxton, Kepler, Wallner, Castro, Soler Infield depth chart: Lewis, Correa, Julien, Kiriloff, Farmer Catching depth chart: Jeffers, Vasquez Roving utility player (incl. CF): Gordon (who is out of options) or Martin That’s 13 position players. It would be nice if Soler could play some 1B (which, we know from Moneyball is not difficult, lol). Regardless, Soler plays pretty much everyday - DH against righties and LF or RF against lefties. Sign him without moving Farmer. Soler is an instant hedge on Kepler - so we can move Kepler by the deadline if we really need the cash. Besides, Kepler is gone next year anyway so he pretty much just replaces Kepler’s salary in ‘25 and ‘26. We then have a solid RH power corner outfielder to allow time for Rodriguez, Gonzales, and Jenkins to develop. This is the move. Boy, it’s great to see a plan come together….

Agree. Well, let’s hope if we move him, we get more in return than we did with Steer……..(sarcasm intended).

So, is Severino no longer a candidate to play 1B for the Twins? I guess not given it appears from this post he’s no longer on the radar screen. What happened to him since the glowing top prospect report (#15) we read just last week? Severino at this point probably has more upside than Larnach. Given our dearth of outfielder depth, Wallner is also less likely than Severino to man 1B. If Kiriloff struggles or is injured and Lee is not “ready” and/or Severino gets off to a hot start his year, we may see Severino at 1B sooner rather than never.

Schobel is blocked by three much better young potential stars at his two primary defensive positions. His bat is not suited to DH. His doppelgänger Keaschall is right behind him and might be a better version. Miller is a better utility infielder/late inning specialist because of his glove and can cover SS. Martin is probably a better hitter and has more positional flexibility, including 2B. Schobel seems like he could be the ideal definition of a trade candidate either this season or next (as his value improves and he moves further up our list).

Actually, the Twins now have six 7th-9th inning relievers on the roster if we include Varland and Stewart. The addition of DeSclafani means we can add both Varland and Topa into our late inning, high leverage mix. Shut down bullpens win lots of games. The Twins 2024 relief corp is shaping up to be the best heading into a new season in many, many years.

The “logjam” is easily solved when Lee arrives: Lee play 2B with Julien spelling him as needed. Julien and Kiriloff interchange play 1B and DH. When we are facing a lefty, Castro starts in CF, Buxton DHs (to get the RH bats in there and because we know Buxton can’t play everyday in CF), and either Julien or Kiriloff comes off the bench as a PH to face a right handed reliever. Farmer is available to be a defensive substitute at 1B if desired. Easy peasy.

Sadly, several of our other fellow TDers seem to miss the painful reality that $5MM does matter to this team this year. They can complain about wanting to spend more money or how cheap the Pohlads are, but it doesn’t change the marching orders within which our FO must operate. It’s too bad, but it’s how things are. Like any trade, we shall see how it turns out. Polanco might be an all star and he might play 80 games (especially being slotted in to play 2B on a daily basis). DeSclafini may get 25 starts and pitch 140 innings of 4.50 era ball and not be needed to start any of our many post season games. In the real world of budget constraints under which this team lives, for $2MM I’d take that all day long from a #5 starter backed up by a very deep, strong pen. It’s fantasy land to think that Buxton will not DH plenty this year; if he’s healthy and playing 80 games in CF (which we’d all sign up for right now), are we going to assume he sits on the bench the other 80 games? Not likely. Varland should now be expected to pitch for the Twins as both a starter and reliever this season - that swing role has huge value. And there will be other moves, that, yes, the extra $5MM facilitates. For the moment, this deal has both pros and cons and only time will tell, like any deal, which of the two will prevail. But in the real world of Twins 2024 baseball, no one is omniscient enough to say that, on its face, this deal lowers the Twins’ prospects this season or beyond.

Agree, but maybe it’s enough to get them to spend more than just that….

This morning I posted that I really liked our projected starting lineup in which I had the switch hitting Polanco as the DH in the three hole. Having said that, I’m a little more optimistic about this trade for a couple of reasons: 1. I’m a huge proponent of a shut down pen. Topa is solid with high leverage capabilities. But it’s just not Topa this deal adds to the pen: it’s Varland too. Our 7 - 9 inning pen options are now running six pitchers deep. On paper, this is our most solid pen entering a season in a very long time. That’s huge. Just ask the Astros. 2. Ultimately we are paying about $2MM for DeSclafini. Were we really going to find a better fifth starter for that amount? If he can give us 25 starts of 5-6 innings (135-140 innings) with a 4.50 or so ERA, coupled with our new pen depth, we will win more than 50% of his starts. He doesn’t need to be better than that. 3. Let’s face it, we are short RH outfielders in the system. We just added a top 100 or so prospect to our stable, This hedges out Rodriguez a bit and adds quality depth where it is badly needed. Moreover, it’s another trade chip that, depending on how his 2024 goes, could accrue value. 4. I’m not sleeping on Bowen as a potential MLB reliever. Sure, he’s not the straw stirring this drink, but there is now another very, very live arm in our system. You can never have enough live arms. 5. The extra $5MM+ cash - for our franchise in 2024 - is nothing to sneeze at. It may not seem like much, but let’s see how it’s ultimately deployed. Who knows, maybe just having the extra cash available gets the FO and ownership more comfortable going over reported target payroll levels. For example, maybe there is a player out there who at $10-$20MM was just too expensive, but maybe now can be made to fit with the extra cash. 6. Sadly, the DH replacement solution for a HEALTHY Polanco is not as straightforward. This point is valid. More thought is required, but I think Buxton will be filling that DH role quite a bit anyway with Castro, Gordon or Martin filling in in CF. Moreover, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Lee up fairly soon playing some 2B with Kiriloff and Julien able to fill in at 1B and DH.

Great post. Btw, let’s look at this year’s presumptive (as of today - of course lots could still happen) opening day lineup: 2B Julien (L) 3B Lewis (R) DH Polanco (SW) CF Buxton (R) RF Kepler (L) C Jeffers (R) LF Wallner (L) 1B Kiriloff (L) SS Correa (R) Correa and Kepler are the only two returning starters in the field. With Buxton now in CF, there are six new hitters. I like 2024’s lineup over 2023’s.

Agree 100%. The FO is done in CF and the Buxton horse will be ridden to start the year (knock on wood). TBH, I’m getting more and more comfortable if no big trades happen and we break camp with our starting nine being Buxton (CF), Wallner (LF), Kepler (RF), Lewis (3B), Correa (SS), Julien (2B), Kiriloff (1B), Jeffers (C) and Polanco (DH). Our bench could very well be Farmer (IF), Castro (OF), Vasquez (C) plus one of Martin, Gordon, Miranda, or Larnach (acknowledging that Martin and Gordon have the most positional flexibility). Those 13 position players will be the best lineup in the AL Central by a good margin. And if Buxton goes down (or anyone for that matter) we have the depth to deal with it. If we end up running out the clock on Kepler, Polanco and Farmer, it’s ok as their cost is actually lower than their value and no other team seems prepared to pony up someone we need/want in return (i.e. MLB ready/proven starting or relief pitching). And next year we will have reinforcements (Lee and Rodriguez at least) on the way with more salary flexibility as well. Let’s go win this year! We still need starting pitching depth to handle probably 25+ starts over the course of the year. If we hold our nose could we stomach Trevor Bauer on a cheap one year deal? Depending on how that or someone else works out, Varland could also be our swing man at various times during the year (so we kinda pick up relief help as well). Only three weeks until pitchers and catchers report!!!

Throw in three really good rookies from last year (Lewis, Julien, and Wallner) plus a top 10 MLB young catcher (Jeffers), by 2026 we potentially have seven cheap (league minimum or arbitration) controllable young stars to go alongside Correa in the field. We also have plenty of additional young talent to add in around the edges. Let’s hope the FO lets this roster gestate.

Let’s not forget Rodriguez as a starting (corner) outfielder possibility in 2025 (or late 2024 for that matter). The point being, even though Walker is the next Roy Hobbs, there is no reason to push him too fast. His total development as a ballplayer - physically, mentally and in terms of baseball education - is what the Twins should be looking to attain. Give the lad only the rope he can handle and be patient. 2026 would be just fine for a late season debut, if even that isn’t too fast.

Three possibilities IMHO: 1. Given Buxton’s injury risk and the unproven/not so incredible CF alternatives (i.e. Castro, Martin, Gordon and Kiersey), having another option to throw at the wall if necessary to see what sticks isn’t stupid per se. 2. One never knows if one or more of our existing CF backup options might be on the move with Polanco or Kepler or even Vasquez. This might be a proactive manoeuvre to fill a spot that might suddenly open up. 3. Great September call up option to be on the roster for our WS push.

So edited with attribution!

Nice catch on Carlton! I will edit the above.

Assumptions for the Twins all-time starting nine (plus starting pitcher) comprised only of HOFers: A. If they played on the Twins or Senators at any time and are in the HOF, they are eligible (did those Twins/Senators years not count toward their HOF stats/resume? Of course they did). B. They had to have played the position as a regular starter for some period of time (outfield is outfield) Here is our starting batting order/lineup: 1. Rod Carew 2B* 2. Tony Oliva RF (per Stringer Bell) 3. Harmon Killebrew 3B 4. Jim Thome 1B* 5. David Ortiz DH* 6. Kirby Puckett CF* 7. Joe Mauer C* 8. Dave Winfield LF (per Stringer Bell)* 9. Paul Molitor SS* Starting Pitcher: Walter Johnson*. If you are hung up on no Senators, insert Steve Carlton* (thanks Stringer Bell!) Bert Blyleven, Jim Kaat or Jack Morris (that is a darn good starting five). That team would win a fair share of its games against similarly constructed teams from other franchises. Say what you might, but we have been pretty darn blessed as Twins fans since the arrival in Minnesota. * indicates elected on the first ballot (that’s seven our our starting nine plus two pitchers).

The Astros get it: combine making it through five or six innings giving up 3 or less runs with a complete shutdown bullpen and you have a recipe for lots of wins. Think about it. What percentage of games will a team win giving up three or fewer runs? A lot. How much do “ace” relievers cost vs. “ace” starters? A lot less. How many starters are out there who can deliver 5-6 innings per start allowing up to three runs (i.e. an average ERA over 4,50). A lot, and a starter fitting that description is not very expensive. So, for any team, but certainly one on more of a fixed budget, the model of getting one - two top starters (i.e. expensive) with three - four #4 types (i.e. cheap) to go along with three to four top “closer” type bullpen arms (i.e. moderately expensive) is certainly a possible strategy for success. If we had our choice between an expensive #2 starter (many TDers are clamouring for Snell or Montgomery) or Pressly, Hader and Abreu, which makes the most sense? Houston is well run.

Agree with article - Ober should be seen, until proven otherwise, as a legit, young, cheap, controllable #2-3 starter. Just like what many TDers want to acquire in a trade for Lee, Julien, Rodriguez, or even Lewis. Ryan is pretty much the same as Ober. Paddack, for the innings he might throw this year, should be considered as such as well. Heck, even Varland might be Ober a year ago. With a couple of potential starters among our top prospects joining the possible rotation in ‘25, it could be that the FO wants to see how this young staff gestates before pulling the trigger on trading our top position player prospects. Without a big influx of cash from a new TV deal (or less likely it now seems, but still possible, a trade of Polanco and or Kepler), we should anticipate a flyer “prove it” type deal with one or more fallen angel type starters at best before spring training starts.

You are not wrong - you are correct. While success in football inevitably comes down to who wins at the line of scrimmage, success in baseball, particularly in the modern era of 5-6 inning starters, comes down to being able to get through 5 or 6 innings giving up three runs or less and then having a shut down pen. Duran is a huge, almost irreplaceable part of our attempts to have a shut down pen. Get Varland or someone else to get us through six with three earned runs against (very middling 4.50 era). But getting those last nine outs is where teams win or lose championships. I’d bet we win 80%+ of the games we play giving up three runs through six and no runs from the seventh on. Build the pen - keep Duran there.

It’s clear you are big fan of Correa. As you should be, because he’s really good. At the end of the day, all TDers are probably big fans as well. And we are all cheering hard for him. Really hard. And, yes, maybe someday he will vie for the HOF. But just keeping things a bit real: A. To date, has Correa underperformed, outperformed, or performed more or less to expectations as a Twin? B. Has that performance to date been better, worse, or about commensurate with the perceived value of his contract? C. Of course, no one knows what the future holds, but at the moment, does the “market” believe the Twins are underwater, level or above water as it relates to the remaining obligations of Correa’s contract. D. What specifically provides hope that Correa’s performance will improve over the next five years? E. What concerns are there that his performance might diminish? Objectively, IMO (as if anyone cares): A. Slightly underperformed. B. Slightly worse. C. Underwater - not sure any team would sign him now per the remaining terms of his deal (but we probably expected some of that when we signed him anyway). D. He’s still young, has had solid lengthy periods of outperformance, he’s a pro and very talented, he’s had better years so he’s capable, regression to the mean, he gets healthier, the young guys inspire/push him, he embraces the leadership role. E. He’s not getting younger, his recent injury issues, overall downward trend. There’s more to like about his upside than not. We’d all like to see five great years, and yes, maybe even legitimate HOF consideration. But he probably hasn’t shown to this point all of what the Twins/we had hoped to be getting. We are all invested in seeing that change a bit more for the positive because he’s a really important/critical part of this team and its success.

I agree. Correa is really good and super fun to watch. I love it when he shows off his arm to first base. Having said that, given the particular financial characteristics of our franchise, the opportunity cost of each player on the team is a real thing (less so for many other franchises). Some of those costs are big and some small. Correa’s is our largest, which is not necessarily a bad thing, of course. At the moment though, the liability associated with Correa (i.e. his remaining contract) does not appear to match up with the asset he represents/that its funding (i.e. his projected output over the remaining life of that liability/contract). No biggie per se; every team has those mismatch situations. Ideally, you have more positives than negatives and, if you have a negative, it’s not your associated with your biggest liability. We would all be ecstatic to see Correa make the HOF. But even if he doesn’t, we will be rooting hard for him to have a couple of great years going forward to make that contract (i.e. his opportunity cost) pay off handsomely for the Twins.

Well, you will get to see Mauer inducted - maybe/probably this year. But if you can hang on another twenty or so years, I think there’s a good chance you will see another Twin make it in. I’m betting on one of our young guys coming up soon. It’s just a feeling I have. Correa is good too, in fact really good, but he is not going to make it. Age, lack of numbers and trash can banging will be hard to overcome.

Which do you value more: the colossal upside of a Rodriguez or the stable certainty of a Lee? The answer is clearly both. Ted recently listed his top 15 prospects on another post. Among them were six pitchers, including two, Raya and Festa, who are in the top 5 and are both projected to make their Twins debuts no later than 2025. What if our FO thinks that along with Lopez as our clear #1, we actually have a strong stable of contenders to be legit #2-3s for several years to come? Ober, Ryan, Varland, Paddock, Raya and Festa (plus a few others) could easily develop into a very deep, talented, and relatively cheap starting staff with Lopez. With the Twins salary constraints, young controllable potential stars are gold. The Twins have Lewis, Lee, Jenkins, Rodriguez, Jeffers and Julien (and possibly Martin and the underrated Wallner) as cheap multi year assets who project anywhere from solid, above average MLB regulars to all star potential to MVP candidates. Those are up to eight position players (and there are some others) - an entire lineup in the field outside of the pitcher. Maybe, just maybe, our FO thinks the best path is to pretty much stay the course in 2024 (which still projects to winning the division and seeing where things fall after that) while letting both our pitching and position player prospects gestate in anticipation of entering a true multi-season open window that fits neatly into our budget constraints. Patience can be a virtue. It is reasonable to keep both Lee and Rodriguez for now as they both have future all star potential and our near term controllable legit #2 and #3 starters may already be in the system.